A gamble that failed miserably

By Associated Press


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From his office in a strip mall in the Southern California desert, energy trader Bill Rapp bet heavily that Hurricane Katrina would cause natural gas prices to go up and up and up.

He got it wrong — spectacularly wrong.

The gamble has led to tens of millions of dollars in losses at the utility he worked for, the Imperial Irrigation District, and resulted in higher electric bills for its 140,000 customers in this region of triple-digit temperatures and double-digit employment.

As for Rapp, he lost his job and went from potential hero to goat.

"We're having to pay for someone's bad decisions, for someone's mistakes," said Donna Freeman, 60, who pays $300 a month to cool her small home.

Rapp vehemently rejects his employer's portrayal of him as a rogue operator and insists he acted at the direction of the utility board and with the knowledge of his colleagues. Either way, the mess at the relatively small utility is a lesson in the risks of buying and selling energy in an increasingly volatile market.

Rapp, 42, was responsible for buying natural gas for the utility's electrical generating plants under a new strategy to hedge against price swings.

After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the Gulf Coast in August and September 2005 and knocked out natural gas plants, Rapp bought $155 million worth of gas in just four months, or enough fuel for about a year and a half, according to a consultant's report on the mess and interviews with utility officials.

Electric utilities routinely buy gas and coal well in advance. The idea is to lock in a favorable price now, in case prices go up later. But Rapp's buying of so big a supply of gas in so short a period was highly unorthodox.

Moreover, according to utility officials and the consultant's report, Rapp worked with little supervision and even made trades on his cell phone instead of on a recorded office line — a violation of company policy and a departure from industry practices.

Natural gas prices did shoot up in the first few months after Katrina, but then slid after a mild winter, and Imperial Irrigation found itself overpaying. It lost $51 million by one estimate in the consultant's report.

Several industry officials and analysts said they were unaware of any hedging losses as large as Imperial Irrigation's. They said utilities have generally adopted strong internal oversight.

The higher prices were passed along to Imperial Irrigation's customers in this struggling agricultural area of around 15 percent unemployment, and their monthly electric bills climbed about $10 on average, said John Pierre Menvielle, president of the utility's elected board. The board also had to make $20 million in budget cuts this year that included putting off the replacement of utility poles.

State and local authorities investigated and decided to bring no charges. The utility's consultant, Baker Street Group of San Diego, found no evidence anyone tried to profit personally or harm the utility.

"I don't have any doubt that he was a scapegoat," said cattleman Rod Foster, who closely followed the scandal. "There was nobody watching over him and making sure everything went together."

Rapp, in his own defense, noted that three weeks after Katrina struck, the utility board voted to aggressively expand its advance purchases of natural gas and build a two-year supply. Rapp said in an e-mail to The Associated Press that he was under orders at the time to "bring it up to speed." He defended the purchases as rational business decisions.

"Nobody made a bet here!" he wrote.

The utility said Rapp — working on a drab trading floor of about a half-dozen computer terminals at a shopping mall that now houses a Chinese restaurant and payday loan shop — spent $39 million on a single day in December 2005.

While attending a conference in San Diego the next month, he used his cell phone to buy $11.2 million in gas from BP, according to the consultant. When BP disputed the price Rapp claimed he negotiated, the utility didn't have a recording to back him up and ended up paying an extra $158,508.

The consultants also discovered that approval signatures required for trades were missing and some approval forms couldn't even be found. In addition, a panel of utility executives charged with overseeing the trades spent little time discussing how much Rapp was buying, according to meeting records.

In his first comments to a reporter since the scandal broke last year, Rapp said he was forced to use his cell phone because there was no one to fill in for him when he was out of the office. He said another employee was supposed to confirm the trade on a recorded line.

Rapp said it wasn't his job to gather signatures and keep records of trades. And he insisted that members of the oversight committee were watching.

In retrospect, there were warning signs before Katrina struck. In June 2005, accounting and consulting giant KPMG cited a litany of safeguards that were missing from the utility's hedging program.

After things went bad, Rapp said, colleagues froze him out. He stopped getting invited to meetings. Colleagues poached his best trading contacts. Rapp said he was ejected from one meeting by an employee who closed the door on his foot. In January 2007, he was suspended with pay and escorted out of his office. He was fired this spring.

He is now suing the utility, accusing it of defamation.

Rapp still lives three doors down from the utility's former general manager, Charles Hosken, who said in March 2007 that the trading venture was a "rogue operation." Rapp remembers reading his neighbor's comment in the local newspaper.

"My heart sank," he said.

Now unemployed, he spends his days shuttling his children around the Imperial Valley, a spinach-, alfalfa- and lettuce-growing area near the Mexican border about 100 miles east of San Diego.

"I think he wanted to be a hero," said Andy Horne, a former board member.

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The Netherlands Outpaces Canada in Solar Power Generation

Netherlands vs Canada Solar Power compares per capita capacity, renewable energy policies, photovoltaics adoption, rooftop installations, grid integration, and incentives like feed-in tariffs and BIPV, highlighting efficiency, costs, and public engagement.

 

Key Points

Concise comparison of per capita capacity, policies, technology, and engagement in Dutch and Canadian solar adoption.

✅ Dutch per capita PV capacity exceeds Canada's by wide margin.

✅ Strong incentives: net metering, feed-in tariffs, rooftop focus.

✅ Climate, grid density, and awareness drive higher yields.

 

When it comes to harnessing solar power, the Netherlands stands as a shining example of efficient and widespread adoption, far surpassing Canada in solar energy generation per capita. Despite Canada's vast landmass and abundance of sunlight, the Netherlands has managed to outpace its North American counterpart, which some experts call a solar power laggard in solar energy production. This article explores the factors behind the Netherlands' success in solar power generation and compares it to Canada's approach.

Solar Power Capacity and Policy Support

The Netherlands has rapidly expanded its solar power capacity in recent years, driven by a combination of favorable policies, technological advancements, and public support. According to recent data, the Netherlands boasts a significantly higher per capita solar power capacity compared to Canada, where demand for solar electricity lags relative to deployment in many regions, leveraging its smaller geographical size and dense population centers to maximize solar panel installations on rooftops and in urban areas.

In contrast, Canada's solar energy development has been slower, despite having vast areas of suitable land for solar farms. Challenges such as regulatory hurdles, varying provincial policies, and the high initial costs of solar installations have contributed to a more gradual adoption of solar power across the country. However, provinces like Ontario have seen significant growth in solar installations due to supportive government incentives and favorable feed-in tariff programs, though growth projections were scaled back after Ontario scrapped a key program.

Innovation and Technological Advancements

The Netherlands has also benefited from ongoing innovations in solar technology and efficiency improvements. Dutch companies and research institutions have been at the forefront of developing new solar panel technologies, improving efficiency rates, and exploring innovative applications such as building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV). These advancements have helped drive down the cost of solar energy and increase its competitiveness with traditional fossil fuels.

In contrast, while Canada has made strides in solar technology research and development, commercialization and widespread adoption have been more restrained due to factors like market fragmentation and the country's reliance on other energy sources such as hydroelectricity.

Public Awareness and Community Engagement

Public awareness and community engagement play a crucial role in the Netherlands' success in solar power adoption. The Dutch government has actively promoted renewable energy through public campaigns, educational programs, and financial incentives for homeowners and businesses to install solar panels. This proactive approach has fostered a culture of energy conservation and sustainability among the Dutch population.

In Canada, while there is growing public support for renewable energy, varying levels of awareness and engagement across different provinces have impacted the pace of solar energy adoption. Provinces like British Columbia and Alberta have seen increasing interest in solar power, driven by environmental concerns, technological advancements, and economic benefits, as the country is set to hit 5 GW of installed capacity in the near term.

Climate and Geographic Considerations

Climate and geographic considerations also influence the disparity in solar power generation between the Netherlands and Canada. The Netherlands, despite its northern latitude, benefits from relatively mild winters and a higher average annual sunlight exposure compared to most regions of Canada. This favorable climate has facilitated higher solar energy yields and made solar power a more viable option for electricity generation.

In contrast, Canada's diverse climate and geography present unique challenges for solar energy deployment. Northern regions experience extended periods of darkness during winter months, limiting the effectiveness of solar panels in those areas. Despite these challenges, advancements in energy storage technologies and hybrid solar-diesel systems are making solar power increasingly feasible in remote and off-grid communities across Canada, even as Alberta faces expansion challenges related to grid integration and policy.

Future Prospects and Challenges

Looking ahead, both the Netherlands and Canada face opportunities and challenges in expanding their respective solar power capacities. In the Netherlands, continued investments in solar technology, grid infrastructure upgrades, and policy support will be crucial for maintaining momentum in renewable energy development.

In Canada, enhancing regulatory consistency, scaling up solar installations in urban and rural areas, and leveraging emerging technologies will be essential for narrowing the gap with global leaders in solar energy generation and for seizing opportunities in the global electricity market as the energy transition accelerates.

In conclusion, while the Netherlands currently generates more solar power per capita than Canada, with the Prairie Provinces poised to lead growth in the Canadian market, both countries have unique strengths and challenges in their pursuit of a sustainable energy future. By learning from each other's successes and leveraging technological advancements, both nations can further accelerate the adoption of solar power and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change.

 

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How Canada can capitalize on U.S. auto sector's abrupt pivot to electric vehicles

Canadian EV Manufacturing is accelerating with GM, Ford, and Project Arrow, integrating cross-border supply chains, battery production, rare-earths like lithium and cobalt, autonomous tech, and home charging to drive clean mobility and decarbonization.

 

Key Points

Canadian EV manufacturing spans electric and autonomous vehicles, domestic batteries, and integrated US-Canada trade.

✅ GM and Ford retool plants for EVs and autonomous production

✅ Project Arrow showcases Canadian zero-emission supply capabilities

✅ Lithium, cobalt, and battery hubs target cross-border resilience

 

The storied North American automotive industry, the ultimate showcase of Canada’s high-tensile trade ties with the United States and emerging Canada-U.S. collaboration on EVs momentum, is about to navigate a dramatic hairpin turn.

But as the Big Three veer into the all-electric, autonomous era, some Canadians want to seize the moment and take the wheel.

“There’s a long shadow between the promise and the execution, but all the pieces are there,” says Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association.

“We went from a marriage on the rocks to one that both partners are committed to. It could be the best second chapter ever.”

Volpe is referring specifically to GM, which announced late last month an ambitious plan to convert its entire portfolio of vehicles to an all-electric platform by 2035.

But that decision is just part of a cascading transformation across the industry, marking an EV inflection point with existential ramifications for one of the most tightly integrated cross-border manufacturing and supply-chain relationships in the world.

China is already working hard to become the “source of a new way” to power vehicles, President Joe Biden warned last week.

“We just have to step up.”

Canada has both the resources and expertise to do the same, says Volpe, whose ambitious Project Arrow concept — a homegrown zero-emissions vehicle named for the 1950s-era Avro interceptor jet — is designed to showcase exactly that, as recent EV assembly deals in Canada underscore.

“We’re going to prove to the market, we’re going to prove to the (manufacturers) around the planet, that everything that goes into your zero-emission vehicle can be made or sourced here in Canada,” he says.

“If somebody wants to bring what we did over the line and make 100,000 of them a year, I’ll hand it to them.”

GM earned the ire of Canadian auto workers in 2018 by announcing the closure of its assembly plant in Oshawa, Ont. It later resurrected the facility with a $170-million investment to retool it for autonomous vehicles.

“It was, ‘You closed Oshawa, how dare you?’ And I was one of the ‘How dare you’ people,” Volpe says.

“Well, now that they’ve reopened Oshawa, you sit there and you open your eyes to the commitment that General Motors made.”

Ford, too, has entered the fray, promising $1.8 billion to retool its sprawling landmark facility in Oakville, Ont., to build EVs.

It’s a leap of faith of sorts, considering what market experts say is ongoing consumer doubt about EVs and EV supply shortages that drive wait times.

“Range anxiety” — the persistent fear of a depleted battery at the side of the road — remains a major concern, even though it’s less of a problem than most people think.

Consulting firm Deloitte Canada, which has been tracking automotive consumer trends for more than a decade, found three-quarters of future EV buyers it surveyed planned to charge their vehicles at home overnight.

“The difference between what is a perceived issue in a consumer’s mind and what is an actual issue is actually quite negligible,” Ryan Robinson, Deloitte’s automotive research leader, says in an interview.

“It’s still an issue, full stop, and that’s something that the industry is going to have to contend with.”

So, too, is price, especially with the end of the COVID-19 pandemic still a long way off. Deloitte’s latest survey, released last month, found 45 per cent of future buyers in Canada hope to spend less than $35,000 — a tall order when most base electric-vehicle models hover between $40,000 and $45,000.

“You put all of that together and there’s still, despite the electric-car revolution hype, some major challenges that a lot of stakeholders that touch the automotive industry face,” Robinson says.

“It’s not just government, it’s not just automakers, but there are a variety of stakeholders that have a role to play in making sure that Canadians are ready to make the transition over to electric mobility.”

With protectionism no longer a dirty word in the United States and Biden promising to prioritize American workers and suppliers, the Canadian government’s job remains the same as it ever was: making sure the U.S. understands Canada’s mission-critical role in its own economic priorities.

“We’re both going to be better off on both sides of the border, as we have been in the past, if we orient ourselves toward this global competition as one force,” says Gerald Butts, vice-chairman of the political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group and a former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“It served us extraordinarily well in the past … and I have no reason to believe it won’t serve us well in the future.”

Last month, GM announced a billion-dollar plan to build its new all-electric BrightDrop EV600 van in Ingersoll, Ont., at Canada’s first large-scale EV manufacturing plant for delivery vehicles.

That investment, Volpe says, assumes Canada will take the steps necessary to help build a homegrown battery industry — with projects such as a new Niagara-region battery plant pointing the way — drawing on the country’s rare-earth resources like lithium and cobalt that are waiting to be extracted in northern Ontario, Quebec and elsewhere.

Given that the EV industry is still in his infancy, the free market alone won’t be enough to ensure those resources can be extracted and developed, he says.

“General Motors made a billion-dollar bet on Canada because it’s going to assume that the Canadian government — this one or the next one — is going to commit” to building that business.

Such an investment would pay dividends well beyond the auto sector, considering the federal Liberal government’s commitment to lowering greenhouse gas-emissions, including a 2035 EV mandate, and meeting targets set out in the Paris climate accord.

“If you make investments in renewable energy and utility storage using battery technology, you can build an industry at scale that the auto industry can borrow,” Volpe says.

Major manufacturing, retail and office facilities would be able to use that technology to help “shave the peak” off Canada’s GHG emissions and achieve those targets, all the while paving the way for a self-sufficient electric-vehicle industry.

“You’d be investing in the exact same technology you’d use in a car.”

There’s one problem, says Robinson: the lithium-ion batteries on roads right now might not be where the industry ultimately lands.

“We’re not done with with battery technology,” Robinson says. “What you don’t want to do is invest in a technology that is that is rapidly evolving, and could potentially become obsolete going forward.”

Fuel cells — energy-efficient, hydrogen-powered units that work like batteries, but without the need for constant recharging — continue to be part of the conversation, he adds.

“The amount of investment is huge, and you want to be sure that you’re making the right decision, so you don’t find yourself behind the curve just as all that capacity is coming online.”

 

 

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Tariff Threats Boost Support for Canadian Energy Projects

Canadian Energy Infrastructure Tariffs are reshaping pipelines, deregulation, and energy independence, as U.S. trade tensions accelerate approvals for Alberta oil sands, Trans Mountain expansion, and CAPP proposals amid regulatory reform and market diversification.

 

Key Points

U.S. tariff threats drive approvals, infrastructure, and diversification to strengthen Canada energy security.

✅ Tariff risk boosts support for pipelines and export routes

✅ Faster project approvals and deregulation gain political backing

✅ Diversifying markets reduces reliance on U.S. buyers

 

In recent months, the Canadian energy sector has experienced a shift in public and political attitudes toward infrastructure projects, particularly those related to oil and gas production. This shift has been largely influenced by the threat of tariffs from the United States, as well as growing concerns about energy independence and U.S.-Canada trade tensions more broadly.

Scott Burrows, the CEO of Pembina Pipeline Corp., noted in a conference call that the potential for U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy imports has spurred a renewed sense of urgency and receptiveness toward energy infrastructure projects in Canada. With U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs Trump tariff threat on Canadian imports, particularly a 10% tariff on energy products, there is increasing recognition within Canada that these projects are essential for the country’s long-term economic and energy security.

While the direct impact of the tariffs is not immediate, industry leaders are optimistic about the long-term benefits of deregulation and faster project approvals, even as some see Biden as better for Canada’s energy sector overall. Burrows highlighted that while it will take time for the full effects to materialize, there are significant "tailwinds" in favor of faster energy infrastructure development. This includes the possibility of more streamlined regulatory processes and a shift toward more efficient project timelines, which could significantly benefit the Canadian energy sector.

This changing landscape is particularly important for Alberta’s oil production, which is one of the largest contributors to Canada’s energy output. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) has responded to the growing tariff threat by releasing an “energy platform,” outlining recommendations for Ottawa to help mitigate the risks posed by the evolving trade situation. The platform includes calls for improved infrastructure, such as pipelines and transportation systems, and priorities like clean grids and batteries, to ensure that Canadian energy can reach global markets more effectively.

The tariff threat has also sparked a wider conversation about the need for Canada to strengthen its energy infrastructure and reduce its dependency on the U.S. for energy exports. With the potential for escalating trade tensions, there is a growing push for Canadian energy resources to be processed and utilized more domestically, though cutting Quebec’s energy exports during a tariff war. This has led to increased political support for projects like the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which aims to connect Alberta’s oil sands to new markets in Asia via the west coast.

However, the energy sector’s push for deregulation and quicker approvals has raised concerns among environmental groups and Indigenous communities. Critics argue that fast-tracking energy projects could lead to inadequate environmental assessments and greater risks to local ecosystems. These concerns underscore the tension between economic development and environmental protection in the energy sector.

Despite these concerns, there is a clear consensus that Canada’s energy industry needs to evolve to meet the challenges posed by shifting trade dynamics, even as polls show support for energy and mineral tariffs in the current dispute. The proposed U.S. tariffs have made it increasingly clear that the country’s energy infrastructure needs significant investment and modernization to ensure that Canada can maintain its status as a reliable and competitive energy supplier on the global stage.

As the deadline for the tariff decision approaches, and as Ford threatens to cut U.S. electricity exports, Canada’s energy sector is bracing for the potential fallout, while also preparing to capitalize on any opportunities that may arise from the changing trade environment. The next few months will be critical in determining how Canadian policymakers, businesses, and environmental groups navigate the complex intersection of energy, trade, and regulatory reform.

While the threat of U.S. tariffs may be unsettling, it is also serving as a catalyst for much-needed changes in Canada’s energy policy. The push for faster approvals and deregulation may help address some of the immediate concerns facing the sector, but it will be crucial for the government to balance economic interests with environmental and social considerations as the country moves forward in its energy transition.

 

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ACCIONA Energía Launches 280 MW Wind Farm in Alberta

Forty Mile Wind Farm delivers 280 MW of renewable wind power in Alberta, with 49 Nordex turbines by ACCIONA Energía, supplying clean electricity to the grid, lowering carbon emissions, and enabling future 120 MW expansion.

 

Key Points

A 280 MW ACCIONA Energía wind farm in Alberta with 49 Nordex turbines, delivering clean power and cutting carbon.

✅ 280 MW via 49 Nordex N155 turbines on 108 m towers

✅ Supplies clean power to 85,000+ homes, reducing emissions

✅ Phase II could add 120 MW, reaching 400 MW capacity

 

ACCIONA Energía, a global leader in renewable energy, has successfully launched its Forty Mile Wind Farm in southern Alberta, Canada, amid momentum from a new $200 million wind project announced elsewhere in the province. This 280-megawatt (MW) project, powered by 49 Nordex turbines, is now supplying clean electricity to the provincial grid and stands as one of Canada's ten largest wind farms. It also marks the company's largest wind installation in North America to date. 

Strategic Location and Technological Specifications

Situated approximately 50 kilometers southwest of Medicine Hat, the Forty Mile Wind Farm is strategically located in the County of Forty Mile No. 8. Each of the 49 Nordex N155 turbines boasts a 5.7 MW capacity and stands 108 meters tall. The project's design allows for future expansion, with a potential Phase II that could add an additional 120 MW, bringing the total capacity to 400 MW, a scale comparable to Enel's 450 MW U.S. wind farm now in operation. 

Economic and Community Impact

The Forty Mile Wind Farm has significantly contributed to the local economy. During its peak construction phase, the project created approximately 250 jobs, with 25 permanent positions anticipated upon full operation. These outcomes align with an Alberta renewable energy surge projected to power thousands of jobs across the province. Additionally, the project has injected new tax revenues into the local economy and provided direct financial support to local non-profit organizations, including the Forty Mile Family & Community Support Services, the Medicine Hat Women’s Shelter Society, and the Root Cellar Food & Wellness Hub. 

Environmental Benefits

Once fully operational, the Forty Mile Wind Farm is expected to generate enough clean energy to power more than 85,000 homes, supporting wind power's competitiveness in electricity markets today. This substantial contribution to Alberta's energy mix aligns with ACCIONA Energía's commitment to sustainability and its goal of reducing carbon emissions. The project is part of the company's broader strategy to expand its renewable energy footprint in North America and support the transition to a low-carbon economy. 

Future Prospects

Looking ahead, ACCIONA Energía plans to continue its expansion in the renewable energy sector, as peers like TransAlta add 119 MW in the U.S. to their portfolios. The success of the Forty Mile Wind Farm serves as a model for future projects and underscores the company's dedication to delivering sustainable energy solutions, even as Alberta's energy future presents periodic headwinds. With ongoing developments and a focus on innovation, ACCIONA Energía is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of renewable energy in North America.

The Forty Mile Wind Farm exemplifies ACCIONA Energía's commitment to advancing renewable energy, supporting local communities, and contributing to environmental sustainability, and it benefits from evolving demand signals, including a federal green electricity contract initiative in Canada that encourages clean supply. As the project continues to operate and expand, it stands as a testament to the potential of wind energy in Canada's clean energy landscape.

 

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Nova Scotia Power says it now generates 30 per cent of its power from renewables

Nova Scotia Power Renewable Energy delivers 30% in 2018, led by wind power, hydroelectric and biomass, with coal and natural gas declining, as Muskrat Falls imports from Labrador target 40% renewables to cut emissions.

 

Key Points

It is the utility's 30% 2018 renewable mix and plan to reach 40% via Muskrat Falls while reducing carbon emissions.

✅ 18% wind, 9% hydro and tidal, 3% biomass in 2018

✅ Coal reliance fell from 76% in 2007 to 52% in 2018

✅ 58% carbon emissions cut from 2005 levels projected by 2030

 

Nova Scotia's private utility says it has hit a new milestone in its delivery of electricity from renewable resources, a trend highlighted by Summerside wind generation in nearby P.E.I.

Nova Scotia Power says 30 per cent of the electricity it produced in 2018 came from renewable sources such as wind power.

The utility says 18 per cent came from wind turbines, nine per cent from hydroelectric and tidal turbines and three per cent by burning biomass.

However, over half of the province's electrical generation still comes from the burning of coal or petroleum coke. Another 13 per cent come from burning natural gas and five per cent from imports, even as U.S. renewable generation hits record shares.

The utility says that since 2007, the province's reliance on coal-fired plants has dropped from 76 per cent of electricity generated to 52 per cent last year, as Prairie renewables growth accelerates nationally.

It says it expects to meet the province's legislated renewable target of 40 per cent in 2020, when it begins accessing hydroelectricity from the Muskrat Falls project in Labrador.

"We have made greener, cleaner energy a priority," utility president and CEO Karen Hutt said in a news release.

"As we continue to achieve new records in renewable electricity, we remain focused on ensuring electricity prices stay predictable and affordable for our customers, including solar customers across the province."

Nova Scotia Power also projects achieving a 58 per cent reduction in carbon emissions from 2005 levels by 2030.

 

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Why electric buses haven't taken over the world—yet

Electric Buses reduce urban emissions and noise, but require charging infrastructure, grid upgrades, and depot redesigns; they offer lower operating costs and simpler maintenance, with range limits influencing routes, schedules, and on-route fast charging.

 

Key Points

Battery-electric buses cut emissions and noise while lowering operating and maintenance costs for transit agencies.

✅ Lower emissions, noise; improved rider experience

✅ Requires charging, grid upgrades, depot redesigns

✅ Range limits affect routes; on-route fast charging helps

 

In lots of ways, the electric bus feels like a technology whose time has come. Transportation is responsible for about a quarter of global emissions, and those emissions are growing faster than in any other sector. While buses are just a small slice of the worldwide vehicle fleet, they have an outsize effect on the environment. That’s partly because they’re so dirty—one Bogotá bus fleet made up just 5 percent of the city’s total vehicles, but a quarter of its CO2, 40 percent of nitrogen oxide, and more than half of all its particulate matter vehicle emissions. And because buses operate exactly where the people are concentrated, we feel the effects that much more acutely.

Enter the electric bus. Depending on the “cleanliness” of the electric grid into which they’re plugged, e-buses are much better for the environment. They’re also just straight up nicer to be around: less vibration, less noise, zero exhaust. Plus, in the long term, e-buses have lower operating costs, and related efforts like US school bus electrification are gathering pace too.

So it makes sense that global e-bus sales increased by 32 percent last year, according to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, as the age of electric cars accelerates across markets worldwide. “You look across the electrification of cars, trucks—it’s buses that are leading this revolution,” says David Warren, the director of sustainable transportation at bus manufacturer New Flyer.

Today, about 17 percent of the world’s buses are electric—425,000 in total. But 99 percent of them are in China, where a national mandate promotes all sorts of electric vehicles. In North America, a few cities have bought a few electric buses, or at least run limited pilots, to test the concept out, and early deployments like Edmonton's first e-bus offer useful lessons as systems ramp up. California has even mandated that by 2029 all buses purchased by its mass transit agencies be zero-emission.

But given all the benefits of e-buses, why aren’t there more? And why aren’t they everywhere?

“We want to be responsive, we want to be innovative, we want to pilot new technologies and we’re committed to doing so as an agency,” says Becky Collins, the manager of corporate initiative at the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority, which is currently on its second e-bus pilot program. “But if the diesel bus was a first-generation car phone, we’re verging on smartphone territory right now. It’s not as simple as just flipping a switch.”

One reason is trepidation about the actual electric vehicle. Some of the major bus manufacturers are still getting over their skis, production-wise. During early tests in places like Belo Horizonte, Brazil, e-buses had trouble getting over steep hills with full passenger loads. Albuquerque, New Mexico, canceled a 15-bus deal with the Chinese manufacturer BYD after finding equipment problems during testing. (The city also sued). Today’s buses get around 225 miles per charge, depending on topography and weather conditions, which means they have to re-up about once a day on a shorter route in a dense city. That’s an issue in a lot of places.

If you want to buy an electric bus, you need to buy into an entire electric bus system. The vehicle is just the start.

The number one thing people seem to forget about electric buses is that they need to get charged, and emerging projects such as a bus depot charging hub illustrate how infrastructure can scale. “We talk to many different organizations that get so fixated on the vehicles,” says Camron Gorguinpour, the global senior manager for the electric vehicles at the World Resources Institute, a research organization, which last month released twin reports on electric bus adoption. “The actual charging stations get lost in the mix.”

But charging stations are expensive—about $50,000 for your standard depot-based one. On-route charging stations, an appealing option for longer bus routes, can be two or three times that. And that’s not even counting construction costs. Or the cost of new land: In densely packed urban centers, movements inside bus depots can be tightly orchestrated to accommodate parking and fueling. New electric bus infrastructure means rethinking limited space, and operators can look to Toronto's TTC e-bus fleet for practical lessons on depot design. And it’s a particular pain when agencies are transitioning between diesel and electric buses. “The big issue is just maintaining two sets of fueling infrastructure,” says Hanjiro Ambrose, a doctoral student at UC Davis who studies transportation technology and policy.

“We talk to many different organizations that get so fixated on the vehicles. The actual charging stations get lost in the mix as the American EV boom gathers pace across sectors.”

Then agencies also have to get the actual electricity to their charging stations. This involves lengthy conversations with utilities about grid upgrades, rethinking how systems are wired, occasionally building new substations, and, sometimes, cutting deals on electric output, since electric truck fleets will also strain power systems in parallel. Because an entirely electrified bus fleet? It’s a lot to charge. Warren, the New Flyer executive, estimates it could take 150 megawatt-hours of electricity to keep a 300-bus depot charged up throughout the day. Your typical American household, by contrast, consumes 7 percent of that—per year. “That’s a lot of work by the utility company,” says Warren.

For cities outside of China—many of them still testing out electric buses and figuring out how they fit into their larger fleets—learning about what it takes to run one is part of the process. This, of course, takes money. It also takes time. Optimists say e-buses are more of a question of when than if. Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects that just under 60 percent of all fleet buses will be electric by 2040, compared to under 40 percent of commercial vans and 30 percent of passenger vehicles.

Which means, of course, that the work has just started. “With new technology, it always feels great when it shows up,” says Ambrose. “You really hope that first mile is beautiful, because the shine will come off. That’s always true.”

 

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