EU to link carbon markets by December

By Reuters


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The European Union's executive Commission will link "before December 2008 at the latest" an EU market in carbon emissions permits with a related U.N.-run trading scheme.

The EU's flagship scheme to combat climate change allows heavy industry a fixed quota of permits to emit the main man made greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.

Companies must either keep to that limit, buy permits from others below their EU cap, or fund emissions cuts in developing countries, earning offsets called CERs under a U.N.-run Kyoto Protocol scheme called the Clean Development Mechanism.

Until now there was no software link between the EU and U.N. schemes allowing CER delivery, a link originally expected nearly 18 months ago. The delay has made EU carbon market participants nervous as the first significant CER contract settlement date nears on December 1.

The connection should happen shortly, said European Commission environment spokeswoman Barbara Helfferich, who declined to give a more precise indication of the date.

"We are negotiating with the U.N. (climate agency) to decide on the date," she said. "We had a successful test run. Now we have to see that the U.N. is also ready, so setting the date is under negotiation.... It should be shortly."

"I welcome the successful outcome of the testing phase," said EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas.

"This now paves the way for the transfer of credits from the Clean Development Mechanism into the EU registry system."

If the link is not up and running by December 1 then most CER contracts have a clause allowing settlement to roll over until the patch is complete. However, confidence would be harmed at a time many countries are considering introducing their own cap and trade schemes.

"What you really can't put a number on is the impact on sentiment," said a carbon trader who declined to be named.

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International Atomic Energy Agency agency commends China's nuclear security

IAEA Nuclear Security Mission in China reviews regulatory frameworks, physical protection, and compliance at nuclear power plants, endorsing CAEA efforts, IPPAS guidance, and capacity building to strengthen safeguards, risk management, and global cooperation.

 

Key Points

An IAEA advisory visit assessing China's nuclear security, physical protection, and regulatory frameworks.

✅ Reviews laws, regulations, and physical protection measures

✅ Endorses CAEA, COE, and IPPAS-aligned best practices

✅ Recommends accelerated rulemaking for expanding reactors

 

The International Atomic Energy Agency commended China's efforts and accomplishments in nuclear security after conducting its first nuclear security advisory mission to the nation, according to the China Atomic Energy Authority.

The two-week International Physical Protection Advisory Service mission, from Aug 28to Saturday, reviewed the legislative and regulatory framework for nuclear security as well as the physical protection of nuclear material and facilities, including worker safety protocols during health emergencies.

An eight-member expert team led by Joseph Sandoval of the United States' Sandia National Laboratories visited Fangjiashan Nuclear Power Plant, part of the Qinshan Nuclear Power Station in Zhejiang province, to examine security arrangements and observe physical protection measures, where recognized safety culture practices can reinforce performance.

The experts also met with officials from several Chinese government bodies involved in nuclear security such as the China Atomic Energy Authority, National Nuclear Safety Administration and Ministry of Public Security.

The international agency has carried out 78 of the protection missions in 48 member states since 1995. This was the first in China, it said.

The China Atomic Energy Authority said on Tuesday that a report by the experts highly approves of the Chinese government's continuous efforts to strengthen nuclear safety, to boost the sustainable development of the nuclear power industry and to help establish a global nuclear security system.

The report identifies the positive roles played by the State Nuclear Security Technology Center and its subsidiary, the Center of Excellence on Nuclear Security, in enhancing China's nuclear security capability and supporting regional and global cooperation in the field, such as bilateral cooperation agreements that advance research and standards, officials at the China Atomic Energy Authority said.

"A strong commitment to nuclear security is a must for any state that uses nuclear power for electricity generation and that is planning to significantly expand this capacity by constructing new power reactors," said Muhammad Khaliq, head of the international agency's nuclear security of materials and facilities section. "China'sexample in applying IAEA nuclear security guidance and using IAEA advisory services demonstrates its strong commitment to nuclear security and its enhancement worldwide."

The report notes that along with the rapid growth of China's nuclear power sector, challenges have emerged when it comes to the country's nuclear security mechanism and management, as highlighted by grid reliability warnings during pandemics in other markets.

It suggests that the Chinese government accelerate the making of laws and regulations to better govern this sector.

Deng Ge, director of the State Nuclear Security Technology Center, said the IAEAmission would help China strengthen its nuclear security since the nation could learn from other countries' successful experience, including on-site staffing measures to maintain critical operations, and find out its weaknesses for rectification.

Deng added that the mission's report can help the international community understand China's contributions to the global nuclear security system and also offer China's best practices to other nations.

 

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Opinion: Germany's drive for renewable energy is a cautionary tale

Germany Energiewende Lessons highlight climate policy tradeoffs, as renewables, wind and solar face grid constraints, coal phase-out delays, rising electricity prices, and public opposition, informing Canada on diversification, hydro, oil and gas, and balanced transition.

 

Key Points

Insights from Germany's renewable shift on costs, grid limits, and emissions to guide Canada's balanced energy policy.

✅ Evidence: high power prices, delayed coal exit, limited grid buildout

✅ Land, materials, and wildlife impacts challenge wind and solar scale-up

✅ Diversification: hydro, nuclear, gas, and storage balance reliability

 

News that Greta Thunberg is visiting Alberta should be welcomed by all Canadians.

The teenaged Swedish environmentalist has focused global attention on the climate change debate like never before. So as she tours our province, where selling renewable energy could be Alberta's next big thing, what better time for a reality check than to look at a country that is furthest ahead in already adapting steps that Greta is advocating.

That country is Germany. And it’s not a pretty sight.

Germany embraced the shift toward renewable energy before anyone else, and did so with gusto. The result?

Germany’s largest newsmagazine Der Spiegel published an article on May 3 of this year entitled “A Botched Job in Germany.” The cover showed broken wind turbines and half-finished transition towers against a dark silhouette of Berlin.

Germany’s renewable energy transition, Energiewende, is a bust. After spending and committing a total of US$580 billion to it from 2000 to 2025.

Why is that? Because it’s been a nightmare of foolish dreams based on hope rather than fact, resulting in stalled projects and dreadfully poor returns.

Last year Germany admitted it had to delay its phase-out of coal and would not meet its 2020 greenhouse gas emissions reduction commitment. Only eight per cent of the transmission lines needed to support this new approach to powering Germany have been built.

Opposition to renewables is growing due to electricity prices rising to the point they are now among the highest in the world. Wind energy projects in Germany are now facing the same opposition that pipelines are here in Canada. 

Opposition to renewables in Germany, reports Forbes, is coming from people who live in rural or suburban areas, in opposition to the “urbane, cosmopolitan elites who fetishize their solar roofs and Teslas as a sign of virtue.” Sound familiar?

So, if renewables cannot successfully power Germany, one of the richest and most technologically advanced countries in the world, who can do it better?

The biggest problem with using wind and solar power on a large scale is that the physics just don’t work. They need too much land and equipment to produce sufficient amounts of electricity.

Solar farms take 450 times more land than nuclear power plants to produce the same amount of electricity. Wind farms take 700 times more land than natural gas wells.

The amount of metal required to build these sites is enormous, requiring new mines. Wind farms are killing hundreds of endangered birds.

No amount of marketing or spin can change the poor physics of resource-intensive and land-intensive renewables.

But, wait. Isn’t Norway, Greta’s neighbour, dumping its energy investments and moving into alternative energy like wind farms in a big way?

No, not really. Fact is only 0.8 per cent of Norway’s power comes from wind turbines. The country is blessed with a lot of hydroelectric power, but that’s a historical strength owing to the country’s geography, nothing new.

And yet we’re being told the US$1-trillion Oslo-based Government Pension Fund Global is moving out of the energy sector to instead invest in wind, solar and other alternative energy technologies. According to 350.org activist Nicolo Wojewoda this is “yet another nail in the coffin of the coal, oil, and gas industry.”

Well, no.

Norway’s pension fund is indeed investing in new energy forms, but not while pulling out of traditional investments in oil and gas. Rather, as any prudent fund manager will, they are diversifying by making modest investments in emerging industries such as Alberta's renewable energy surge that will likely pay off down the road while maintaining existing investments, spreading their investments around to reduce risk. Unfortunately for climate alarmists, the reality is far more nuanced and not nearly as explosive as they’d like us to think.

Yet, that’s enough for them to spin this tale to argue Canada should exit oil and gas investment and put all of our money into wind and solar, even as Canada remains a solar power laggard according to experts.

That is not to say renewable energy projects like wind and solar don’t have a place. They do, and we must continue to innovate and research lower-polluting ways to power our societies on the path to zero-emissions electricity by 2035 in Canada.

But like it actually is in Norway, investment in renewables should supplement — not replace — fossil fuel energy systems if we aim for zero-emission electricity in Canada by 2035 without undermining reliability. We need both.

And that’s the message that Greta should hear when she arrives in Canada.

Rick Peterson is the Edmonton-based founder and Beth Bailey is a Calgary-based supporter of Suits and Boots, a national not-for-profit group of investment industry professionals that supports resource sector workers and their families.

 

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Coronavirus could stall a third of new U.S. utility solar this year: report

U.S. Utility-Scale Solar Delays driven by the coronavirus pandemic threaten construction timelines, supply chains, and financing, with interconnection and commissioning setbacks, module sourcing risks in Southeast Asia, and tax credit deadline pressures impacting project delivery.

 

Key Points

Setbacks to large U.S. solar builds from COVID-19 impacting construction, supply, financing, and permitting.

✅ Construction, interconnection, commissioning site visits delayed

✅ Supply chain risks for modules from Southeast Asia

✅ Tax credit deadline extensions sought by developers

 

About 5 gigawatts (GW) of big U.S. solar energy projects, enough to power nearly 1 million homes, could suffer delays this year if construction is halted for months due to the coronavirus pandemic, as the Covid-19 crisis hits renewables across the sector, according to a report published on Wednesday.

The forecast, a worst-case scenario laid out in an analysis by energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, would amount to about a third of the utility-scale solar capacity expected to be installed in the United States this year, even as US solar and wind growth continues under favorable plans.

The report comes two weeks after the head of the top U.S. solar trade group called the coronavirus pandemic (as solar jobs decline nationwide) "a crisis here" for the industry. Solar and wind companies are pleading with Congress to extend deadlines for projects to qualify for sunsetting federal tax credits.

Even the firm’s best-case scenario would result in substantial delays, mirroring concerns that wind investments at risk across the industry. With up to four weeks of disruption, the outbreak will push out 2 GW of projects, or enough to power about 380,000 homes. Before factoring in the impact of the coronavirus, Wood Mackenzie had forecast 14.7 GW of utility-scale solar projects would be installed this year.

In its report, the firm said the projects are unlikely to be canceled outright. Rather, they will be pushed into the second half of 2020 or 2021. The analysis assumes that virus-related disruptions subside by the end of the third quarter.

Mid-stage projects that still have to secure financing and receive supplies are at the highest risk, Wood Mackenzie analyst Colin Smith said in an interview, adding that it was too soon to know whether the pandemic would end up altering long-term electricity demand and therefore utility procurement plans, where policy shifts such as an ITC extension could reshape priorities.

Currently, restricted travel is the most likely cause of project delays, the report said. Developers expect delays in physical site visits for interconnection and commissioning, and workers have had difficulty reaching remote construction sites.

For earlier-stage projects, municipal offices that process permits are closed and in-person meetings between developers and landowners or local officials have slowed down.

Most solar construction is proceeding despite stay at home orders in many states because it is considered critical infrastructure, and long-term proposals like a tenfold increase in solar could reshape the outlook, the report said, adding that “that could change with time.”

Risks to supplies of solar modules include potential manufacturing shutdowns in key producing nations in Southeast Asia such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand. Thus far, solar module production has been identified as an essential business and has been allowed to continue.

 

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Alberta's Last Coal Plant Closes, Embracing Clean Energy

Alberta Coal Phase-Out signals a clean energy transition, replacing coal with natural gas and renewables, cutting greenhouse gas emissions, leveraging a carbon levy, and supporting workers in Alberta's evolving electricity market.

 

Key Points

Alberta Coal Phase-Out moves power from coal to lower-emission natural gas and renewables to reduce grid emissions.

✅ Last coal plant closed: Genesee Generating Station, Sept 30, 2023

✅ Shift to natural gas and renewables lowers emissions

✅ Carbon levy and incentives accelerated clean power build-out

 

The closure of the Genesee Generating Station on September 30, 2023, marked a significant milestone in Alberta's energy history, as the province moved to retire coal power by 2023 ahead of its 2030 provincial deadline. The Genesee, located near Calgary, was the province's last remaining coal-fired power plant. Its closure represents the culmination of a multi-year effort to transition Alberta's electricity sector away from coal and towards cleaner sources of energy.

For decades, coal was the backbone of Alberta's electricity grid. Coal-fired plants were reliable and relatively inexpensive to operate. However, coal also has a significant environmental impact. The burning of coal releases greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, a major contributor to climate change. Coal plants also produce air pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide, which can cause respiratory problems and acid rain, and in some regions electricity is projected to get dirtier as gas use expands.

In recognition of these environmental concerns, the Alberta government began to develop plans to phase out coal-fired power generation in the early 2000s. The government implemented a number of policies to encourage the shift from coal to cleaner energy such as natural gas and renewable energy. These policies included providing financial incentives for the construction of new natural gas plants and renewable energy facilities, as well as imposing a carbon levy on coal-fired generation.

The phase-out of coal was also driven by economic factors. The cost of natural gas has declined significantly in recent years, making it a more competitive fuel source for electricity generation as producers switch to gas under evolving market conditions. Additionally, the Alberta government faced increasing pressure from the federal government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The transition away from coal has not been without its challenges. Coal mining and coal-fired power generation have long been important parts of Alberta's economy. The closure of coal plants has resulted in job losses in the affected communities. The government has implemented programs to help workers transition to new jobs in the clean energy sector.

Despite these challenges, the closure of the Genesee Generating Station is a positive development for Alberta's environment and climate. Coal-fired power generation is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Alberta, and recent wind generation outpacing coal underscores the sector's transformation. The closure of the Genesee is expected to result in a significant reduction in emissions, helping Alberta to meet its climate change targets.

The transition away from coal also presents opportunities for Alberta. The province has vast natural gas resources, which can be used to generate electricity with lower emissions than coal. Alberta is also well-positioned to develop renewable energy sources, such as wind power and solar power. These renewable energy sources can help to further reduce emissions and create new jobs in the clean energy sector.

The closure of the Genesee Generating Station is a significant milestone in Alberta's energy history. It represents the end of an era for coal-fired power generation in the province, a shift mirrored by the UK's last coal station going offline earlier this year. However, it also marks the beginning of a new era for Alberta's energy sector. By transitioning to cleaner sources of energy, Alberta can reduce its environmental impact and create a more sustainable energy future.

 

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Russia Builds Power Lines to Reactivate Zaporizhzhia Plant

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Restart signals new high-voltage transmission lines to Mariupol, Rosatom grid integration, and IAEA-monitored safety amid occupied territory risks, cooling system shortfalls after the Kakhovka dam collapse, and disputed international law.

 

Key Points

A Russian plan to reconnect and possibly restart ZNPP via power lines, despite IAEA safety, cooling, and legal risks.

✅ 80 km high-voltage link toward Mariupol confirmed by imagery

✅ IAEA warns of safety risks and militarization at the site

✅ Cooling capacity limited after Kakhovka dam destruction

 

Russia is actively constructing new power lines to facilitate the restart of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Europe's largest nuclear facility, which it seized from Ukraine in 2022. Satellite imagery analyzed by Greenpeace indicates the construction of approximately 80 kilometers (50 miles) of high-voltage transmission lines and pylons connecting the plant to the Russian-controlled port city of Mariupol. This development marks the first tangible evidence of Russia's plan to reintegrate the plant into its energy infrastructure.

Strategic Importance of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

The ZNPP, located on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Enerhodar, was a significant asset in Ukraine's energy sector before its occupation. Prior to the war, the plant was connected to Ukraine's national grid, which later saw resumed electricity exports, via four 750-kilovolt lines, two of which passed through Ukrainian-controlled territory and two through areas under Russian control. The ongoing conflict has damaged these lines, complicating efforts to restore the plant's operations.

In March 2022, Russian forces captured the plant, and by 2023, all six of its reactors had been shut down. Despite this, Russian authorities have expressed intentions to restart the facility. Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear corporation, has identified replacing the power grid as one of the critical steps necessary for resuming operations, even as Ukraine pursues more resilient wind power to bolster its energy mix.

Environmental and Safety Concerns

The construction of new power lines and the potential restart of the ZNPP have raised significant environmental and safety concerns, as the IAEA has warned of nuclear risks from grid attacks in recent assessments. Greenpeace has reported that the plant's cooling system has been compromised due to the destruction of the Kakhovka Reservoir dam in 2023, which previously supplied cooling water to the plant. Currently, the plant relies on wells for cooling, which are insufficient for full-scale operations.

Additionally, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expressed concerns about the militarization of the plant. Reports indicate that Russian forces have established defensive positions and trenches around the facility, with mines found at ZNPP by UN inspectors, raising the risk of accidents and complicating efforts to ensure the plant's safety.

International Reactions and Legal Implications

Ukraine and the international community have condemned Russia's actions as violations of international law and Ukrainian sovereignty. Ukrainian officials have argued that the construction of power lines and the potential restart of the ZNPP constitute illegal activities in occupied territory. The IAEA has called for a ceasefire to allow for necessary safety improvements and to facilitate inspections of the plant, as a possible agreement on power plant attacks could underpin de-escalation efforts.

The United States has also expressed concerns, with President Donald Trump reportedly proposing the inclusion of the ZNPP in peace negotiations, which sparked controversy among Ukrainian and international observers, even suggesting the possibility of transferring control to American companies. However, Russia has rejected such proposals, reaffirming its intention to maintain control over the facility.

The construction of new power lines to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant signifies Russia's commitment to reintegrating the facility into its energy infrastructure. However, this move raises significant environmental, safety, and legal concerns, and a proposal to control Ukraine's nuclear plants remains controversial among stakeholders. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, urging for adherence to international laws and standards to prevent potential nuclear risks.

 

 

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U.S. Electricity Sales Projections Continue to Fall

US Electricity Demand Outlook examines EIA forecasts, GDP decoupling, energy efficiency, electrification, electric vehicles, grid load growth, and weather variability to frame long term demand trends and utility planning scenarios.

 

Key Points

An analysis of EIA projections showing demand decoupling from GDP, with EV adoption and efficiency shaping future grid load.

✅ EIA lowers load growth; demand decouples from GDP.

✅ Efficiency and sector shifts depress kWh sales.

✅ EV adoption could revive load and capacity needs.

 

Electricity producers and distributors are in an unusual business. The product they provide is available to all customers instantaneously, literally at the flip of a switch. But the large amount of equipment, both hardware and software to do this takes years to design, site and install.

From a long range planning perspective, just as important as a good engineering design is an accurate sales projections. For the US electric utility industry the most authoritative electricity demand projec-tions come from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA's compre-hensive reports combine econometric analysis with judgment calls on social and economic trends like the adoption rate of new technologies that could affect future electricity demand, things like LED light-ing and battery powered cars, and the rise of renewables overtaking coal in generation.

Before the Great Recession almost a decade ago, the EIA projected annual growth in US electricity production at roughly 1.5 percent per year. After the Great Recession began, the EIA lowered its projections of US electricity consumption growth to below 1 percent. Actual growth has been closer to zero. While the EIA did not antici-pate the last recession or its aftermath, we cannot fault them on that.

After the event, though, the EIA also trimmed its estimates of economic growth. For the 2015-2030 period it now predicts 2.1 percent economic and 0.3 percent electricity growth, down from previously projections of 2.7 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. (See Figures 1 and 2.)



 

Table 1. EIA electric generation projections by year of forecast (kWh billions)

 


 

Table 2. EIA forecast of GDP by year of forecast (billion 2009 $)

Back in 2007, the EIA figured that every one percent increase in economic activity required a 0.48 percent in-crease in electric generation to support it. By 2017, the EIA calculated that a 1 percent growth in economic activity now only required a 0.14 percent increase in electric output. What accounts for such a downgrade or disconnect between electricity usage and economic growth? And what factors might turn the numbers 
around?

First, the US economy lost energy intensive heavy industry like smelting, steel mills and refineries; patterns in China's electricity sector highlight how industrial shifts can reshape power demand. A more service oriented economy (think health care) relies more heavily on the movement of data or information and uses far less power than a manufacturing-oriented economy.

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Second, internet shopping has hurt so-called "brick and mortar" retailers. Despite the departure of heavy industry, in years past a burgeoning US commercial sector increased its demand and usage of electricity to offset the industrial decline. But not anymore. Energy efficiency measures as well as per-haps greater concern about global warming and greenhouse gas emissions and have cut into electricity sales. “Do more with less” has the right ring to it.

But there may be other components to the ongoing decline in electricity usage. Academic studies show that electricity usage seems to increase with income along an S curve, and flattens out after a certain income level. That is, if you earn $1 billion per year you do not (or cannot) use ten times a much electricity as someone earning only $100 million.

But people at typical, middle income levels increase or decrease electricity usage when incomes rise or fall. The squeeze on middle income families was discussed often in the late presidential campaign. In recent decades an increasing percentage of income has gone to a small percentage of the population at the top of the income scale. This trend probably accounts for some weakness in residential sales. This suggests that government policy addressing income inequality would also boost electricity sales.

Population growth affects demand for electricity as well as the economy as a whole. The EIA has made few changes in its projections, showing 0.7 percent per year population growth in 2015- 2030 in both the 2007 and 2017 forecasts. Recent studies, however, have shown a drop in the birth rate to record lows. More troubling, from a national health perspective is that the average age of death may have stopped rising. Those two factors point to lower population growth, especially if the government also restricts immi-gration. Thus, the US may be approaching a period of rather modest population growth.

All of the above factors point to minimal sales growth for electricity producers in the US--perhaps even lower than the seemingly conservative EIA estimates. But the cloud on the horizon has a silver lining in the shape of an electric car. Both the United Kingdom and France have set dates to end of production of automobiles with internal combustion engines. Several European car makers have declared that 20 percent of their output will be electric vehicles by the early 2020s. If we adopt automobiles powered by electricity and not gasoline or diesel, electricity sales would increase by one third. For the power indus-try, electric vehicles represent the next big thing.

We don’t pretend to know how electric car sales will progress. But assume vehicle turnover rates re-main at the current 7 percent per year and electric cars account for 5 percent of sales in the first five years (as op-posed to 1 percent now), 20 percent in the next five years and 50 percent in the third five year period. Wildly optimistic assumptions? Maybe. By 2030, electric cars would constitute 28 percent of the vehicle fleet. They would add about 10 percent to kilowatt hour sales by that date, assuming that battery efficiencies do not improved by then. Those added sales would require increased electric generation output, with low-emissions sources expected to cover almost all the growth globally. They would also raise long term growth rates for 2015-2030 from the present 0.3 percent to 1.0 percent. The slow upturn in demand should give the electric companies time to gear up so to speak.

In the meantime, weather will continue to play a big role in electricity consumption. Record heat-induced demand peaks are being set here in the US even as surging global demand puts power systems under strain worldwide.

Can we discern a pattern in weather conditions 15 years out? Maybe we can, but that is one topic we don’t expect a government agency to tackle in public right now. Meantime, weather will affect sales more than anything else and we cannot predict the weather. Or can we?

 

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