Ontario can afford to switch off coal for now

Ontario coal phase-out delivers clean energy gains, lower emissions, improved air quality, and grid reliability, driven by conservation, efficiency, IESO planning, and the Green Energy Act, replacing coal with renewables and demand response.

Ontario is on the cusp of making a major difference on climate.

While other governments dither and delay, Ontario has reduced its dependence on climate destroying coal power to the lowest level in 45 years.

In fact, we could be just months away from completing an early coal phase-out that is the climate equivalent of taking 7 million cars off the road. All that is required is one last jolt of political willpower.

Ontario now has a very comfortable surplus of coal-free electricity generation capacity. We can produce 23 per cent more power from coal-free sources than the peak demand for power that we are likely to see over the remainder of 2010.

And this surplus is more likely to grow than to contract between now and 2014 – Ontario's official deadline for ending coal use, after an earlier 2007 target was missed.

You don't have to take the Ontario Clean Air Alliance's word for it: The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), the folks who manage demand and supply in Ontario, say our coal-free supply will outstrip peak electricity demand by 27 per cent in 2014.

But what about the impact of an economic recovery on electricity demand?

Well, the IESO is well aware that current power demand levels are at recessionary levels, but it points out that the combination of constantly improving efficiency, greater emphasis on conservation, including programs that pay big users to cut consumption through incentives and new generation projects driven by factors like the province's innovative Green Energy Act will leave us with power to spare even as the economy revs up.

The truth is that year-over-year growth in power demand in Ontario was sliding toward negative numbers even before the recession hit. Ontario's economy is changing, technology is changing and awareness of the huge economic benefits of more efficient practices has been on the rise. This is the real story behind future electricity demand.

And the good news/bad news is that Ontario really is just beginning to tap the power of efficiency. We have a long way to go to catch up with the most productive North American jurisdictions.

The upshot is that we can put our four remaining coal plants on standby reserve today without jeopardizing the reliability of our electricity system. The plants can be essentially idled and run only if there is a true power emergency (e.g., the Pickering nuclear station breaks down once again) or to assist from time to time with maintaining grid stability.

But there should be absolutely no need to run these plants to meet peak demand or to fire them up to sell dirty power to our American neighbours.

A decision to idle these plants would result in a virtual end to their emissions that destabilize our climate and pollute our air. Coal plants are such enormous polluters that even running at current levels they still produce enough pollution to kill hundreds of people each year. They are also the largest industrial source of mercury, a neurotoxin that can affect children's development.

Recently, there has been a lot of talk about rising electricity costs, an issue in the Ontario election debate, but it is now actually costing electricity ratepayers hundreds of millions of dollars a year to run the Nanticoke and Lambton coal plants due to their high fixed costs and the dramatic decline in their output – between 2003 and 2009 Ontario's coal-fired generation fell by 73 per cent.

As a consequence, in 2009, pursuant to a directive from Finance Minister Dwight Duncan, ratepayers forked over $412 million to Ontario Power Generation to compensate it for continuing to keep all 12 of Nanticoke's and Lambton's boilers operational. Even if other solutions, to support grid stability (e.g., capacitor banks and compensators) are not fully implemented before 2014, this does not require 12 massive boilers to remain operational.

That's why ending coal use right now to keep the coal promise makes so much sense. We save money – and our health. And we show the world that Canadians are ready to act when it comes to climate change.

This summer, world leaders will gather in Toronto for the G20 Summit. Climate must be on the agenda for this meeting, particularly after the disappointing results of the Copenhagen climate summit. This is Ontario's chance to demonstrate that we get it when it comes to climate and that we mean it when we say we will reduce our emissions by 15 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.

The world could use a little good news on climate these days. Ontario is in a great position to supply it by finishing the coal phase-out and further clearing the way for the growth of green energy.

We know that future competitiveness will depend on our ability to go green. Switching off coal for good is a great way to demonstrate that this province truly is ready for the new green global economy.

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