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OEB Hydro One Rate Decision 2023-2027 sets approved transmission and distribution rates in Ontario, with a settlement reducing revenue requirement, modest bill impacts, higher productivity factors, inflation certainty, DVA credits, and First Nations participation measures.

Key Points

OEB-approved Hydro One 2023-2027 transmission and distribution rates settlement, lowering costs and limiting bill impacts.

✅ $482.7M revenue reductions vs. original proposal

✅ Avg bill impact: +$0.69 trans., +$2.43 distr. per month

✅ Faster DVA refunds; productivity and efficiency incentives

The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) issued its Decision and Order on an application filed by Hydro One Networks Inc. (Hydro One) on August 5, 2021 seeking approval for changes to the rates it charges for electricity transmission and distribution, beginning January 1, 2023 and for each subsequent year through to December 31, 2027. 

The proceeding resulted in the filing of a settlement proposal that the OEB has now approved after concluding that it is in the public interest. 

The negotiated reductions in Hydro One's transmission and distribution revenue requirements over the 2023 to 2027 period total $482.7 million compared to the requests made by Hydro One in its application.

The OEB found that the reductions in Hydro One's proposed capital expenditure and operating, maintenance and administration costs were reasonable, and should not compromise the safety and reliability of Hydro One's transmission and distribution systems. It also concluded that the estimated bill impacts for both transmission and distribution customers are reasonable, and that the January 1, 2023 implementation and effective date of the new rates is appropriate.

In the broader Canadian context, pressures on utility finances at other companies, such as Manitoba Hydro's debt provide additional background for stakeholders.

Bill Impacts

This proceeding related to both transmission and distribution operations.

Transmission

The new transmission revenue requirement will affect Ontario electricity consumers across the province because it will be incorporated into updated transmission rates, which are paid by electricity distributors and other large consumers connected directly to the transmission system, and distributors then pass this cost on to their customers.

As a result of the settlement approved on the transmission portion of the application, it is estimated that for a typical Hydro One residential customer with a monthly consumption of 750 kWh, the total bill impact averaged over the 2023-2027 period will be an increase of $0.69 per month or 0.5%, which follows the 2021 electricity rate reductions that affected many businesses.

Distribution

The new OEB-approved distribution rates will affect Hydro One's distribution customers, including areas served through acquisitions such as the Peterborough Distribution sale which expanded its customer base.

As a result of the settlement reached on the distribution portion of the application, it is estimated that for a typical residential distribution customer of Hydro One with a monthly consumption of 750 kWh, the total bill impact averaged over the 2023-2027 period will be an increase of $2.43 per month or 1.5%.
This proceeding included 24 approved intervenors representing a wide variety of customer classes and other interests. Representatives of 18 of those intervenors participated in the settlement conference. Having this diversity of perspective enriches the already thorough examination of evidence and argument that the OEB routinely undertakes when considering an application.

Other features of the settlement proposal include:

• A commitment by Hydro One to include, in future operational and capital investment plans, a discussion of how the proposed spending will directly support the achievement of Hydro One's climate change policy.
• Eliminating further updates to reflect changes to inflation in 2022 and 2023 as originally proposed, to provide Hydro One's customers with greater certainty as to the potential impacts of inflation on their bills.
• Increases in the productivity factors and supplemental stretch factors for both the distribution and transmission business segments which will provide Hydro One with additional incentives to achieve greater efficiencies during the 2023 to 2027 period.
• Undertaking certain measures to seek economic participation or equity investment opportunities from First Nations.
• Disposition of net credit balances in deferral and variance accounts (DVAs) owed to customers will be returned over a shorter period of time:
• Transmission DVA – $22.5M over a one-year period in 2023 (versus five years)
• Distribution DVA – $85.9M over a three-year period – 2023-2025 (versus five years)
• Undertaking certain measures to continue examining cost-effective transmission and distribution line losses
• In the decision, the OEB acknowledged the efforts involved by parties to participate in this entire proceeding, including the settlement conference, considering the number of participants, the complexity of the issues, and the challenging logistics of a "virtual" proceeding. The OEB commended the parties and OEB staff for achieving a comprehensive settlement on all issues.

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Mercury Energy Tilt Renewables acquisition signals a trans-Tasman energy push as PowAR and Mercury split assets via a scheme of arrangement, offering $7.80 per share and a $2.96b valuation across Australia and New Zealand.

Key Points

A PowAR-Mercury deal to buy Tilt Renewables, splitting Australian and New Zealand assets via a court-approved scheme.

✅ $7.80 per share, valuing Tilt at $2.96b

✅ PowAR takes AU assets; Mercury gets NZ business

✅ Infratil and Mercury to vote for the scheme

Mercury Energy and an Australian partner appear to have won the race to buy Tilt Renewables, an Australasian wind farm developer which was spun out of TrustPower, bidding almost $3 billion, amid wider utility consolidation such as the Peterborough Distribution sale to Hydro One.

Yesterday Tilt Renewables announced that it had entered a scheme implementation agreement under which it was proposed that PowAR would acquire its Australian business and Mercury would acquire the New Zealand business, mirroring cross-border approvals where U.S. antitrust clearance shaped Hydro One's bid for Avista.

Conducted through a scheme of arrangement, Tilt shareholders will be offered $7.80 a share, valuing Tilt at $2.96b.

Yesterday morning shares in Tilt opened about 18 per cent up at $7.65, though regulatory outcomes can swing valuations as seen when Hydro One-Avista reconsideration of a U.S. order came into play.

In early December Infratil, which owns around two thirds of Tilt's shares, announced it was undertaking a review of its investment after receiving approaches, with investor sentiment sensitive to governance shifts as when Hydro One shares fell after leadership changes in Ontario.

According to a report in the Australian Financial Review, the transtasman bid beat out other parties including ASX-listed APA Group, Canadian pension fund CDPQ and Australian fund manager Infrastructure Capital Group, as Canadian investors like Ontario Teachers' Plan pursue similar infrastructure deals.

“This compelling acquisition proposal is a result of Tilt Renewables’ constant focus on delivering long-term value for shareholders and the board is pleased that, with these new owners, the transition to renewables in Australia and New Zealand will continue to accelerate,” Tilt’s chairman Bruce Harker said.

Comparable community-led clean energy partnerships, such as initiatives with British Columbia First Nations highlighted in clean-energy generation, underscore the broader momentum.

Just prior to the announcement, Tilt shares had been trading for less than $4. Such repricing reflects how utilities can face perceived uncertainties, as one investor argued too many unknowns at the time.

Mercury is already Tilt’s second largest shareholder, at just under 20 per cent. Both Infratil and Mercury have agreed to vote in favour of the scheme. The deal values Tilt’s New Zealand business at $770m, however the value of Mercury’s existing shareholding is around $585m, meaning the company will increase debt by around $185m.

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OPG Credit Rating affirmed by DBRS at A (low) issuer and unsecured debt, R-1 (low) CP, Stable trends, backed by a supportive regulatory regime, strong leverage metrics, and provincial support; monitor Darlington Refurbishment costs.

Key Points

It is DBRS's confirmation of OPG at A (low) issuer and unsecured, R-1 (low) CP, with Stable outlooks.

✅ Stable trends; strong cash flow-to-debt and capital ratios

✅ Provincial financing via OEFC; Fair Hydro Trust ring-fenced

✅ Darlington Refurbishment on budget; cost overruns remain risk

DBRS Limited (DBRS) confirmed the Issuer Rating and the Unsecured Debt rating of Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPG or the Company) at A (low) and the Commercial Paper (CP) rating at R-1 (low), amid sector developments such as Hydro One leadership efforts to repair government relations and measures like staff lockdowns at critical sites.

All trends are Stable. The ratings of OPG continue to be supported by (1) the reasonable regulatory regime in place for the Company's regulated generation facilities, including stable pricing signals for large users, (2) strong cash flow-to-debt and debt-to-capital ratios and (3) continuing financial support from its shareholder, the Province of Ontario (the Province; rated AA (low) with a Stable trend by DBRS). The Province, through its agent, the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (rated AA (low) with a Stable trend by DBRS), provides most of OPG's financing (approximately 43% of consolidated debt). The Company's remaining debt includes project financing (31%), including projects such as a battery energy storage system proposed near Woodstock, non-recourse debt issued by Fair Hydro Trust (Senior Notes rated AAA (sf), Under Review with Negative Implications by DBRS; 11%), CP (2%) and Senior Notes issued under the Medium Term Note Program (12%).

In March 2019, the Province introduced 'Bill 87, Fixing the Hydro Mess Act, 2019' which includes winding down the Fair Hydro Plan, and later introduced electricity relief to mitigate customer bills during the COVID-19 pandemic. OPG will remain as the Financial Services Manager for the outstanding Fair Hydro Trust debt, which will become obligations of the Province. DBRS does not expect this development to have a material impact on the Company as (1) the Fair Hydro Trust debt will continue to be bankruptcy-remote and ring-fenced from OPG (all debt is non-recourse to the Company) and (2) the credit rating on the Company's investment in the Subordinated Notes (rated AA (sf), Under Review with Negative Implications by DBRS) will likely remain investment grade while the Junior Subordinated Notes (rated A (sf), Under Review with Developing Implications by DBRS) will not necessarily be negatively affected by this change (see the DBRS press release, 'DBRS Maintains Fair Hydro Trust, Series 2018-1 and Series 2018-2 Notes Under Review,' dated March 26, 2019, for more details).

OPG's key credit metrics improved in 2018, following the approval of its 2017-2021 rates application by the Ontario Energy Board in December 2017, alongside the Province's energy-efficiency programs that shape demand. The Company's profitability strengthened significantly, with corporate return on equity (ROE) of 7.8% (adjusted for a $205 million gain on sale of property; 5.1% in 2017) closer to the regulatory allowed ROE of 8.78%. However, DBRS continues to view a positive rating action as unlikely in the short term because of the ongoing large capital expenditures program, including the $12.8 billion Darlington Refurbishment project, amid ongoing oversight following the nuclear alert investigation in Ontario. However, a downgrade could occur should there be significant cost overruns with the Darlington Refurbishment project that result in stranded costs. DBRS notes that the Darlington Refurbishment project is currently on budget and on schedule.

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Black Hills Energy Corriedale Wind Farm Expansion earns regulatory approval in Wyoming, boosting capacity to over 52MW near Cheyenne with five turbines, supporting Renewable Ready customers and wind power goals under PUC and PSC oversight.

Key Points

An approved Wyoming wind project upgrade to over 52MW, adding five turbines to serve Renewable Ready customers.

✅ Adds 12.5MW via five new wind turbines near Cheyenne

✅ Cost increases to $79m; prior estimate $57m

✅ Approved by SD PUC after Wyoming PSC review

US company Black Hills Energy has received regulatory approval to increase the size of its Corriedale wind farm in Wyoming, where Wyoming wind exports to California are advancing, to over 52MW from 40MW previously.

The South Dakota Public Utilities Commission approved the additional 12.5MW capacity after the Wyoming Public Service Commission determined the boost was within commission rules, as federal initiatives like DOE wind energy awards continue to support the sector.

Black Hills Energy will install five additional turbines, raising the project cost to $79m from $57m, amid growing heartland wind investment across the region.
Corriedale will be built near Cheyenne and is expected to be placed in service in late 2020.

Similar market momentum is seen in Canada, where a Warren Buffett-linked Alberta wind farm is planned to expand capacity across the region.

Black Hills said that during the initial subscription period for its Renewable Ready program, applications of interest from eligible commercial, industrial and governmental agency customers were received in excess of the program's 40MW, underscoring the view that more energy sources can make stronger projects.

Black Hills Corporations chief executive and president Linden Evans said: “We are pleased with the opportunity to expand our Renewable Ready program, allowing us to meet our customers’ interest in renewable wind energy, which co-op members increasingly support.

“This innovative program expands our clean energy portfolio while meeting our customers’ evolving needs, particularly around cleaner and more sustainable energy, as projects like new energy generation coming online demonstrate.”

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25% Tariff on Canadian Imports threatens New York energy markets, disrupting hydroelectric power and natural gas supply chains, raising electricity prices, increasing gas costs, and intensifying trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and cross-border logistics risks.

Key Points

A U.S. policy imposing 25% duties on Canadian goods, risking higher New York electricity and natural gas costs.

✅ Hydroelectric and gas imports face costlier cross-border flows

✅ Higher utility bills for NY households and businesses

✅ Supply chain volatility and policy uncertainty increase

President Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada, citing concerns over drug trafficking and illegal immigration. This decision has raised significant concerns among experts and residents in New York, who warn that the tariff could lead to increased electricity and gas prices in the state.

Impact on New York's Energy Sector

New York relies heavily on energy imports from Canada, particularly electricity and natural gas. Canada is a major supplier of hydroelectric power to the northeastern United States, including New York, with its electricity exports at risk amid trade tensions. The imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods could disrupt this supply chain, leading to higher energy costs for consumers and businesses in New York. Justin Wilcox, an energy analyst, stated, "If the tariff is implemented, it could lead to increased costs for electricity and gas, affecting both consumers and businesses."

Potential Economic Consequences

The increased energy costs could have broader economic implications for New York, and some experts advise against cutting Quebec's exports to avoid exacerbating market volatility. Higher electricity and gas prices may lead to increased operational costs for businesses, potentially resulting in higher prices for goods and services, while tariff threats have boosted support for Canadian energy projects that could reshape regional supply. This could exacerbate the cost-of-living challenges faced by residents and strain the state's economy.

Political and Diplomatic Reactions

The tariff has also sparked political and diplomatic reactions, including threats to cut U.S. electricity exports from Ontario that raised tensions. New York Governor Kathy Hochul expressed concern over the potential economic impact, stating, "We are closely monitoring the situation and are prepared to take necessary actions to protect New York's economy." Additionally, Canadian officials have expressed their disapproval of the tariff, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford's Washington meeting underscored ongoing discussions, emphasizing the importance of the trade relationship between the two countries.

Historical Context

This development is part of a broader pattern of trade tensions between the United States and its neighbors. In 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, leading to retaliatory measures from Canada. The current situation underscores the ongoing challenges in international trade relations, where a recent tariff threat delayed Quebec's green energy bill and highlighted the potential domestic impacts of such policies.

The imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports by President Trump has raised significant concerns in New York regarding potential increases in electricity and gas prices. Experts warn that this could lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses, with broader economic implications for the state. As the situation develops, it will be crucial to monitor the responses from both state and federal officials, as well as how Canadians support tariffs on energy and minerals may influence policy, and the potential for diplomatic negotiations to address these trade tensions.

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Ontario EV Battery Separator Plant anchors Canada's EV supply chain, with Asahi Kasei producing lithium-ion battery separators in Niagara Region to support Honda's Alliston assembly, clean transportation growth, and sustainable manufacturing jobs.

Key Points

Asahi Kasei's Niagara Region plant makes lithium-ion battery separators supplying Honda's EV factory in Ontario.

✅ Starts up by 2027 to align with Honda EV output timeline.

✅ Backed by clean tech tax credits and public investment.

✅ Boosts local jobs, R&D, and clean transportation leadership.

The automotive industry is undergoing a seismic shift, and Canada is firmly planting its flag in the electric vehicle (EV) revolution, propelled by recent EV assembly deals across the country. A new $1.6 billion battery component plant in Ontario's Niagara Region signifies a significant step towards a cleaner, more sustainable transportation future. This Asahi Kasei facility, a key player in Honda's $15 billion electric vehicle supply chain investment, promises to create jobs, boost the local economy, and solidify Ontario's position as a leader in clean transportation technology.

Honda's ambitious project forms part of Honda's Ontario EV investment that involves constructing a dedicated battery plant adjacent to their existing Alliston, Ontario assembly facility. This new plant will focus on producing fully electric vehicles, requiring a robust supply chain for critical components. Asahi Kasei's Niagara Region plant enters the picture here, specializing in the production of battery separators – a thin film crucial for separating the positive and negative electrodes within a lithium-ion battery. These separators play a vital role in ensuring the battery functions safely and efficiently.

The Niagara Region plant is expected to be operational by 2 027, perfectly aligning with Honda's EV production timeline. This strategic partnership benefits both companies: Honda secures a reliable source for a vital component, while Asahi Kasei capitalizes on the burgeoning demand for EV parts. The project is a catalyst for economic growth in Ontario, creating jobs in construction and manufacturing, supporting an EV jobs boom province-wide, and potentially future research and development sectors. Additionally, it positions the province as a hub for clean transportation technology, attracting further investment and fostering innovation.

This announcement isn't an isolated event. News of Volkswagen constructing a separate EV battery plant in St. Thomas, Ontario, and the continuation of a major EV battery project near Montreal further underscore Canada's commitment to electric vehicles. These developments signify a clear shift in the country's automotive landscape, with a focus on sustainable solutions.

Government support has undoubtedly played a crucial role in attracting these investments. The Honda deal involves up to $5 billion in public funds. Asahi Kasei's Niagara Region plant is also expected to benefit from federal and provincial clean technology tax credits. This demonstrates a collaborative effort between government and industry, including investments by Canada and Quebec in battery assembly, to foster a thriving EV ecosystem in Canada.

The economic and environmental benefits of this project are undeniable. Battery production is expected to create thousands of jobs, while the shift towards electric vehicles will lead to reduced emissions and a cleaner environment. Ontario stands to gain significantly from this transition, becoming a leader in clean energy technology and attracting skilled workers and businesses catering to the EV sector, especially as the U.S. auto pivot to EVs accelerates across the border.

However, challenges remain. Concerns about the environmental impact of battery production, particularly the sourcing of raw materials and the potential for hazardous waste, need to be addressed. Additionally, ensuring a skilled workforce capable of handling the complexities of EV technology is paramount.

Despite these challenges, the future of electric vehicles in Canada appears bright. Major automakers are making significant investments, government support is growing, and consumer interest in EVs is on the rise. The Niagara Region plant serves as a tangible symbol of Canada's commitment to a cleaner and more sustainable transportation future. With careful planning and continued Canada-U.S. collaboration across the sector, this project has the potential to revolutionize the Canadian automotive industry and pave the way for a greener tomorrow.

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