Delays sought for new U.S. nuclear builds

BC Hydro Electricity Imports shape CleanBC claims as Powerex trades cross-border electricity, blending hydro with coal and gas supplies, affecting emissions, grid carbon intensity, and how electric vehicles and households assess "clean" power.

Key Points

Powerex buys power for BC Hydro, mixing hydro with coal and gas, shifting emissions and affecting CleanBC targets.

✅ Powerex trades optimize price, not carbon intensity

✅ Imports can include coal- and gas-fired generation

✅ Emissions affect EV and CleanBC decarbonization claims

British Columbians naturally assume they’re using clean power when they fire up holiday lights, juice up a cell phone or plug in a shiny new electric car. 

That’s the message conveyed in advertisements for the CleanBC initiative launched by the NDP government, amid indications that residents are split on going nuclear according to a survey, which has spent $3.17 million on a CleanBC “information campaign,” including almost $570,000 for focus group testing and telephone town halls, according to the B.C. finance ministry.

“We’ll reduce air pollution by shifting to clean B.C. energy,” say the CleanBC ads, which feature scenic photos of hydro reservoirs. “CleanBC: Our Nature. Our Power. Our Future.” 

Yet despite all the bumph, British Columbians have no way of knowing if the electricity they use comes from a coal-fired plant in Alberta or Wyoming, a nuclear plant in Washington, a gas-fired plant in California or a hydro dam in B.C. 

Here’s why. 

BC Hydro’s wholly-owned corporate subsidiary, Powerex Corp., exports B.C. power when prices are high and imports power from other jurisdictions when prices are low. 

In 2018, for instance, B.C. imported more electricity than it exported — not because B.C. has a power shortage (it has a growing surplus due to the recent spate of mill closures and the commissioning of two new generating stations in B.C.) but because Powerex reaps bigger profits when BC Hydro slows down generators to import cheaper power, especially at night.

“B.C. buys its power from outside B.C., which we would argue is not clean,” says Martin Mullany, interim executive director for Clean Energy BC. 

“A good chunk of the electricity we use is imported,” Mullany says. “In reality we are trading for brown power” — meaning power generated from conventional ‘dirty’ sources such as coal and gas. 

Wyoming, which generates almost 90 per cent of its power from coal, was among the 12 U.S. states that exported power to B.C. last year. (Notably, B.C. did not export any electricity to Wyoming in 2018.)

Utah, where coal-fired power plants produce 70 per cent of the state’s energy amid debate over the costs of scrapping coal-fired electricity, and Montana, which derives about 55 per cent of its power from coal, also exported power to B.C. last year. 

So did Nebraska, which gets 63 per cent of its power from coal, 15 per cent from nuclear plants, 14 per cent from wind and three per cent from natural gas.   

Coal is responsible for about 23 per cent of the power generated in Arizona, another exporter to B.C., while gas produces about 44 per cent of the electricity in that state.  

In 2017, the latest year for which statistics are available, electricity imports to B.C. totalled just over 1.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, according to the B.C. environment ministry — roughly the equivalent of putting 255,000 new cars on the road, using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s calculation of 4.71 tonnes of annual carbon emissions for a standard passenger vehicle. 

These figures far outstrip the estimated local and upstream emissions from the contested Woodfibre LNG plant in Squamish that is expected to release annual emissions equivalent to 170,000 new cars on the road.

Import emissions cast a new light on B.C.’s latest “milestone” announcement that 30,000 electric cars are now among 3.7 million registered vehicles in the province.

BC Electric Vehicles Announcement Horgan Heyman Mungall Weaver
In November of 2018 the province announced a new target to have all new light-duty cars and trucks sold to be zero-emission vehicles by the year 2040. Photo: Province of B.C. / Flickr

“Making sure more of the vehicles driven in the province are powered by BC Hydro’s clean electricity is one of the most important steps to reduce [carbon] pollution,” said the November 28 release from the energy ministry, noting that electrification has prompted a first call for power in 15 years from BC Hydro.

Mullany points out that Powerex’s priority is to make money for the province and not to reduce emissions.

“It’s not there for the cleanest outcome,” he said. “At some time we have to step up to say it’s either the money or the clean power, which is more important to us?”

Electricity bought and sold by little-known, unregulated Powerex
These transactions are money-makers for Powerex, an opaque entity that is exempt from B.C.’s freedom of information laws. 

Little detailed information is available to the public about the dealings of Powerex, which is overseen by a board of directors comprised of BC Hydro board members and BC Hydro CEO and president Chris O’Reilly. 

According to BC Hydro’s annual service plan, Powerex’s net income ranged from $59 million to $436 million from 2014 to 2018. 

“We will never know the true picture. It’s a black box.” 

Powerex’s CEO Tom Bechard — the highest paid public servant in the province — took home $939,000 in pay and benefits last year, earning $430,000 of his executive compensation through a bonus and holdback based on his individual and company performance.  

“The problem is that all of the trade goes on at Powerex and Powerex is an unregulated entity,” Mullany says. 

“We will never know the true picture. It’s a black box.” 

In 2018, Powerex exported 8.7 million megawatt hours of electricity to the U.S. for a total value of almost $570 million, according to data from the Canada Energy Regulator. That same year, Powerex imported 9.6 million megawatt hours of electricity from the U.S. for almost $360 million. 

Powerex sold B.C.’s publicly subsidized power for an average of $87 per megawatt hour in 2018, according to the Canada Energy Regulator. It imported electricity for an average of $58 per megawatt hour that year. 

In an emailed statement in response to questions from The Narwhal, BC Hydro said “there can be a need to import some power to meet our electricity needs” due to dam reservoir fluctuations during the year and from year to year.

‘Impossible’ to determine if electricity is from coal or wind power
Emissions associated with electricity imports are on average “significantly lower than the emissions of a natural gas generating plant because we mostly import electricity from hydro generation and, increasingly, power produced from wind and solar,” BC Hydro claimed in its statement. 

But U.S. energy economist Robert McCullough says there’s no way to distinguish gas and coal-fired U.S. power exports to B.C. from wind or hydro power, noting that “electrons lack labels.” 

Similarly, when B.C. imports power from Alberta, where generators are shifting to gas and 48.5 per cent of electricity production is coal-fired and 38 per cent comes from natural gas, there’s no way to tell if the electricity is from coal, wind or gas, McCullough says.

“It really is impossible to make that determination.” 

Wyoming Gilette coal pits NASA
The Gillette coal pits in Wyoming, one of the largest coal-producers in the U.S. Photo: NASA Earth Observatory

Neither the Canada Energy Regulator nor Statistics Canada could provide annual data on electricity imports and exports between B.C. and Alberta. 

But you can watch imports and exports in real time on this handy Alberta website, which also lists Alberta’s power sources. 

In 2018, California, Washington and Oregon supplied considerably more power to B.C. than other states, according to data from Canada Energy Regulator. 

Washington, where about one-quarter of generated power comes from fossil fuels, led the pack, with more than $339 million in electricity exports to B.C. 

California, which still gets more than half of its power from gas-fired plants even though it leads the U.S. in renewable energy with substantial investments in wind, solar and geothermal, was in second place, selling about $18.4 million worth of power to B.C. 

And Oregon, which produces about 43 per cent of its power from natural gas and six per cent from coal, exported about $6.2 million worth of electricity to B.C. last year. 

By comparison, Nebraska’s power exports to B.C. totalled about $1.6 million, Montana’s added up to $1.3 million,  Nevada’s were about $706,000 and Wyoming’s were about $346,000.

Clean electrons or dirty electrons?
Dan Woynillowicz, deputy director of Clean Energy Canada, which co-chaired the B.C. government’s Climate Solutions and Clean Growth Advisory Council, says B.C. typically exports power to other jurisdictions during peak demand. 

Gas-fired plants and hydro power can generate electricity quickly, while coal-fired power plants take longer to ramp up and wind power is variable, Woynillowicz notes. 

“When you need power fast and there aren’t many sources that can supply it you’re willing to pay more for it.”

Woynillowicz says “the odds are high” that B.C. power exports are displacing dirty power.

Elsewhere in Canada, analysts warn that Ontario's electricity could get dirtier as policies change, raising similar concerns.

“As a consumer you never know whether you’re getting a clean electron or a dirty electron. You’re just getting an electron.” 

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Ontario electricity pricing consultations will gather business input on OEB rate design, Industrial Conservation Initiative, dynamic pricing, global adjustment, and system costs through online feedback and sector-specific in-person sessions province-wide.

Key Points

Consultations gathering business input on rates, programs, and OEB policy to improve fairness and reduce system costs.

✅ Consults on ICI, GA, dynamic pricing structures

✅ Seeks views on OEB C&I rate design changes

✅ In-person sessions across key industrial sectors

The Ontario government has announced plans to hold consultations to seek input from businesses about industrial electricity pricing and programs. This will be done through Ontario's online consultations directory and though in-person sector-specific consultation sessions across the province. The in-person sessions will be held in all areas of Ontario, and will target "key industries," including automotive and the build-out of electric vehicle charging stations infrastructure, forestry, mining, agriculture, steel, manufacturing and chemicals.

On April 1, 2019, the Ontario government published a consultation notice for this process, confirming that it is looking for input on "electricity rate design, existing tax-based incentives, reducing system costs and regulatory and delivery costs," including related proposals such as the hydrogen rate reduction proposal under discussion. The consultation process includes a list of nine questions for respondents (and presumably participants in the in-person sessions) to address. These include questions about:

The benefits of the Industrial Conservation Initiative (described below), including how it could be changed to improve fairness and industrial competitiveness, and how it could complement programs like the Hydrogen Innovation Fund that support industrial innovation.

Dynamic pricing structures that allow for lower rates in return for responding to price signals versus a flat rate structure that potentially costs more, but is more stable and predictable, as Ontario's energy storage expansion accelerates.

Interest in an all-in commodity contract with an electricity retailer, even if it involves a risk premium.

Interested parties are invited to submit their comments before May 31, 2019.

The government's consultation announcement follows recent developments in the Ontario Energy Board's (OEB) review of electricity ratemaking for commercial and industrial customers, and intertie projects such as the Lake Erie Connector that could affect market dynamics.

In December 2018, the OEB published a paper from its Market Surveillance Panel (MSP) examining the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI), and potential alternative approaches. The ICI is a program that allows qualifying large industrial customers to base their global adjustment (GA) payments on their consumption during five peak demand hours in a year. Customers who find ways to reduce consumption at those times, perhaps through DERs and enabling energy storage options, will reduce their electricity costs. This shifts GA costs to other customers. The MSP found that the ICI does not fairly allocate costs to those who cause them and/or benefit from them, and recommends that a better approach should be developed.

In February 2019, the OEB released its Staff Report to the Board on Rate Design for Commercial and Industrial Electricity Customers, setting out recommendations for new rate designs for electricity commercial and industrial (C&I) rate classes as Ontario increasingly turns to battery storage to meet rising demand. As described in an earlier post, the Staff Report includes recommendations to: (i) establish a fixed distribution charge for commercial customers with demands under 10 kW; (ii) implement a demand charge (rather than the current volumetric charge) for C&I customers with demands between 10kW and 50kW; and (iii) introduce a "capacity reserve charge" for customers with load displacement generation to replace stand-by charges and provide for recognition of the benefits of this generation on the system. The OEB held a stakeholder information session in mid-March on this initiative, and interested parties are now filing submissions in response to the Staff Report.

Whether and how the OEB's processes will fit together with the government's consultation process remains to be seen.

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Electricity System Climate Resilience underpins grid reliability amid heatwaves and drought, integrating solar, wind, hydropower, nuclear, storage, and demand response with efficient transmission, flexibility, and planning to secure power for homes, industry, and services.

Key Points

Power systems capacity to endure extreme weather and integrate clean energy, maintaining reliability and flexibility.

✅ Grid hardening, transmission upgrades, and digital forecasting.

✅ Flexible low-carbon supply: hydropower, nuclear, storage.

✅ Demand response, efficient cooling, and regional integration.

Summer is just half done in the northern hemisphere and yet we are already seeing electricity systems around the world struggling to cope with the severe strain of heatwaves and low rainfall.

These challenges highlight the urgent need for strong and well-planned policies and investments to improve the security of our electricity systems, which supply power to homes, offices, factories, hospitals, schools and other fundamental parts of our economies and societies. This means making our electricity systems more resilient to the effects of global warming – and more efficient and flexible as they incorporate rising levels of solar and wind power, as solar is now the cheapest electricity in history according to the IEA, which will be critical for reaching net-zero emissions in time to prevent even worse impacts from climate change.

A range of different countries, including the US, Canada and Iraq, have been hard hit by extreme weather recently in the form of unusually high temperatures. In North America, the heat soared to record levels in the Pacific Northwest. An electricity watchdog says that five US regions face elevated risks to the security of their electricity supplies this summer, underscoring US grid climate risks that could worsen, and that California’s risk level is even higher.

Heatwaves put pressure on electricity systems in multiple ways. They increase demand as people turn up air conditioning, driving higher US electricity bills for many households, and as some appliances work harder to maintain cool temperatures. At the same time, higher temperatures can also squeeze electricity supplies by reducing the efficiency and capacity of traditional thermal power plants, such as coal, natural gas and nuclear. Extreme heat can reduce the availability of water for cooling plants or transporting fuel, forcing operators to reduce their output. In some cases, it can result in power plants having to shut down, increasing the risk of outages. If the heat wave is spread over a wide geographic area, it also reduces the scope for one region to draw on spare capacity from its neighbours, since they have to devote their available resources to meeting local demand.

A recent heatwave in Texas forced the grid operator to call for customers to raise their thermostats’ temperatures to conserve energy. Power generating companies suffered outages at much higher rates than expected, providing an unwelcome reminder of February’s brutal cold snap when outages – primarily from natural gas power plants – left up to 5 million customers across the US without power over a period of four days.

At the same time, lower than average rainfall and prolonged dry weather conditions are raising concerns about hydropower’s electricity output in various parts of the world, including Brazil, China, India and North America. The risks that climate change brings in the form of droughts adds to the challenges faced by hydropower, the world’s largest source of clean electricity, highlighting the importance of developing hydropower resources sustainably and ensuring projects are climate resilient.

The recent spate of heatwaves and unusually long dry spells are fresh warnings of what lies ahead as our climate continues to heat up: an increase in the scale and frequency of extreme weather events, which will cause greater impacts and strains on our energy infrastructure.

Heatwaves will increase the challenge of meeting electricity demand while also decarbonizing the electricity supply. Today, the amount of energy used for cooling spaces – such as homes, shops, offices and factories – is responsible for around 1 billion tonnes of global CO2 emissions. In particular, energy for cooling can have a major impact on peak periods of electricity demand, intensifying the stress on the system. Since the energy demand used for air conditioners worldwide could triple by 2050, these strains are set to grow unless governments introduce stronger policy measures to improve the energy efficiency of air conditioning units.

Electricity security is crucial for smooth energy transitions
Many countries around the world have announced ambitious targets for reaching net-zero emissions by the middle of this century and are seeking to step up their clean energy transitions. The IEA’s recent Global Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050 makes it clear that achieving this formidable goal will require much more electricity, much cleaner electricity and for that electricity to be used in far more parts of our economies than it is today. This means electricity reaching much deeper into sectors such as transport (e.g. EVs), buildings (e.g. heat-pumps) and industry (e.g. electric-arc steel furnaces), and in countries like New Zealand's electrification plans it is accelerating broader efforts. As clean electricity’s role in the economy expands and that of fossil fuels declines, secure supplies of electricity become ever-more important. This is why the climate resilience of the electricity sector must be a top priority in governments’ policy agendas.

Changing climate patterns and more frequent extreme weather events can hit all types of power generation sources. Hydropower resources typically suffer in hot and dry conditions, but so do nuclear and fossil fuel power plants. These sources currently help ensure electricity systems have the flexibility and capacity to integrate rising shares of solar and wind power, whose output can vary depending on the weather and the time of day or year.

As governments and utilities pursue the decarbonization of electricity systems, mainly through growing levels of solar and wind, and carbon-free electricity options, they need to ensure they have sufficiently robust and diverse sources of flexibility to ensure secure supplies, including in the event of extreme weather events. This means that the possible decommissioning of existing power generation assets requires careful assessments that take into account the importance of climate resilience.

Ensuring electricity security requires long-term planning and stronger policy action and investment
The IEA is committed to helping governments make well-informed decisions as they seek to build a clean and secure energy future. With this in mind, here are seven areas for action for ensuring electricity systems are as resilient as possible to climate risks:

1. Invest in electricity grids to make them more resilient to extreme weather. Spending today is far below the levels needed to double the investment for cleaner, more electrified energy systems, particularly in emerging and developing economies. Economic recovery plans from the COVID-19 crisis offer clear opportunities for economies that have the resources to invest in enhancing grid infrastructure, but much greater international efforts are required to mobilize and channel the necessary spending in emerging and developing economies.

2. Improve the efficiency of cooling equipment. Cost-effective technology already exists in most markets to double or triple the efficiency of cooling equipment. Investing in higher efficiency could halve future energy demand and reduce investment and operating costs by $3 trillion between now and 2050. In advance of COP26, the Super-Efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) initiative is encouraging countries to sign up to double the energy efficiency of equipment sold in their countries by 2030.

3. Enable the growth of flexible low-carbon power sources to support more solar and wind. These electricity generation sources include hydropower and nuclear, for countries who see a role for one or both of them in their energy transitions. Guaranteeing hydropower resilience in a warming climate will require sophisticated methods and tools – such as the ones implemented in Brazil – to calculate the necessary level of reserves and optimize management of reservoirs and hydropower output even in exceptional conditions. Batteries and other forms of storage, combined with solar or wind, can also provide important amounts of flexibility by storing power and releasing it when needed.

4. Increase other sources of electricity system flexibility. Demand-response and digital technologies can play an important role. The IEA estimates that only a small fraction of the huge potential for demand response in the buildings sector is actually tapped at the moment. New policies, which associate digitalization and financial behavioural incentives, could unlock more flexibility. Regional integration of electricity systems across national borders can also increase access to flexible resources.

5. Expedite the development and deployment of new technologies for managing extreme weather threats. The capabilities of electricity utilities in forecasting and situation awareness should be enhanced with the support of the latest information and communication technologies.

6. Make climate resilience a central part of policy-making and system planning. The interconnected nature of recent extreme weather events reminds us that we need to account for many contingencies when planning resilient power systems. Climate resilience should be integral to policy-making by governments and power system planning by utilities and relevant industries, and debates over Canadian climate policy underscore how grid implications must be considered. According to the recent IEA report on climate resilience, only nine out of 38 IEA member and association countries include concrete actions on climate adaptation and resilience for every segment of electricity systems.

7. Strengthen international cooperation on electricity security. Electricity underpins vital services and basic needs, such as health systems, water supplies and other energy industries. Maintaining a secure electricity supply is thus of critical importance. The costs of doing nothing in the face of growing climate threats are becoming abundantly clear. The IEA is working with all countries in the IEA family, as well as others around the world, by providing unrivalled data, analysis and policy advice on electricity security issues. It is also bringing governments together at various levels to share experiences and best practices, and identify how to hasten the shift to cleaner and more resilient energy systems.

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Canadian Clean Hydrogen is surging, driven by net-zero goals, tax credits, and exports. Fuel cells, electrolysis, and low-emissions power and transport signal growth, though current production is largely fossil-based and needs decarbonization.

Key Points

Canadian Clean Hydrogen is the shift to make and use low-emissions hydrogen for energy and industry to reach net-zero.

✅ $17B tax credits through 2035 to scale electrolyzers and hubs

✅ Export MOUs with Germany and the Netherlands target 2025 shipments

✅ IEA: 99% of hydrogen from fossil fuels; deep decarbonization needed

As the world races to find effective climate solutions, and toward an electric planet vision, hydrogen is earning buzz as a potentially low-emitting alternative fuel source. 

The promise of hydrogen as a clean fuel source is nothing new — as far back as the 1970s hydrogen was being promised as a "potential pollution-free fuel for our cars."

While hydrogen hasn't yet taken off as the fuel of the future  — a 2023 report from McKinsey & Company and the Hydrogen Council estimates that there is a grand total of eight hydrogen vehicle fuelling stations in Canada — many still hope that will change.

The hope is hydrogen will play a significant role in combating climate change, serving as a low-emissions substitute for fossil fuels in power generation, home heating and transportation, where cleaning up electricity remains critical, and today, interest in a Canadian clean hydrogen industry may be starting to bubble over.

"People are super excited about hydrogen because of the opportunity to use it as a clean chemical fuel. So, as a displacement for natural gas, diesel, gasoline, jet fuel," said Andrew Gillis, CEO of Canadian hydrogen company Aurora Hydrogen. 

Plans for low or zero-emissions hydrogen projects are beginning to take shape across the country. But, at the moment, hydrogen is far from a low-emissions fuel, which is why some experts suggest expectations for the resource should be tempered. 

The IEA report indicates that in 2021, global hydrogen production emitted 900 million tonnes of carbon dioxide — roughly 180 million more than the aviation industry — as roughly 99 per cent of hydrogen production came from fossil fuel sources. 

"There is a concern that the role of hydrogen in the process of decarbonization is being very greatly overstated," said Mark Winfield, professor of environmental and urban change at York University. 

A growing excitement 

In 2020, the government released a hydrogen strategy, aiming to "cement hydrogen as a tool to achieve our goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 and position Canada as a global, industrial leader of clean renewable fuels." 

The latest budget includes over $17 billion in tax credits between now and 2035 to help fund clean hydrogen projects.

Today, the most common application for hydrogen in Canada is as a material in industrial activities such as oil refining and ammonia, methanol and steel production, according to Natural Resources Canada. 

But, the buzz around hydrogen isn't exactly over its industrial applications, said Aurora Hydrogen's Gillis.

"All these sorts of things where we currently have emitting gaseous or liquid chemical fuels, hydrogen's an opportunity to replace those and access the energy without creating emissions at the point of us," Gillis said. 

When used in a fuel cell, hydrogen can produce electricity for transportation, heating and power generation without producing common harmful emissions like nitrogen oxide, hydrocarbons and particulate matter — BloombergNEF estimates that hydrogen could meet 24 per cent of global energy demand by 2050.

A growing industry

Canada's hydrogen strategy aims to have 30 per cent of end-use energy be from clean hydrogen by 2050. According to the strategy, Canada produces an estimated three million tonnes of hydrogen per year from natural gas today, but the strategy doesn't indicate how much hydrogen is produced from low-emissions sources.

In recent years, the Canadian clean hydrogen industry has earned international interest, especially as Germany's hydrogen strategy anticipates significant imports.

In 2021, Canada signed a memorandum of understanding with the Netherlands to help develop "export-import corridors for clean hydrogen" between the two countries. Canada also recently inked a deal with Germany to start exporting the resource there by 2025.

But while a low-emissions hydrogen plant went online in Becancour, Que., in 2021, the rest of Canada's clean-hydrogen industry seems to be in the early stages.

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Advanced Traffic Light System for Geothermal Safety models fracture growth and friction with rock physics, geophones, and supercomputers to predict induced seismicity during hydraulic stimulation, enabling real-time risk control for ETH Zurich and SED.

Key Points

ATLS uses rock physics, geophones, and HPC to forecast induced seismicity in real time during geothermal stimulation.

✅ Real-time seismic risk forecasts during hydraulic stimulation

✅ Uses rock physics, friction, and fracture modeling on HPC

✅ Supports ETH Zurich and SED field tests in Iceland and Bedretto

The Swiss Earthquake Service and ETH Zurich want to make geothermal energy safer, so news piece from Switzerland earlier this month. This is to be made possible by new software, including machine learning, and the computing power of supercomputers. The first geothermal tests have already been carried out in Iceland, and more will follow in the Bedretto laboratory.

In areas with volcanic activity, the conditions for operating geothermal plants are ideal. In Iceland, the Hellisheidi power plant makes an important contribution to sustainable energy use, alongside innovations like electricity from snow in cold regions.

Deep geothermal energy still has potential. This is the basis of the 2050 energy strategy. While the inexhaustible source of energy in volcanically active areas along fault zones of the earth’s crust can be tapped with comparatively little effort and, where viable, HVDC transmission used to move power to demand centers, access on the continents is often much more difficult and risky. Because the geology of Switzerland creates conditions that are more difficult for sustainable energy production.

Improve the water permeability of the rock

On one hand, you have to drill four to five kilometers deep to reach the correspondingly heated layers of earth in Switzerland. It is only at this depth that temperatures between 160 and 180 degrees Celsius can be reached, which is necessary for an economically usable water cycle. On the other hand, the problem of low permeability arises with rock at these depths. “We need a permeability of at least 10 millidarcy, but you can typically only find a thousandth of this value at a depth of four to five kilometers,” says Thomas Driesner, professor at the Institute of Geochemistry and Petrology at ETH Zurich.

In order to improve the permeability, water is pumped into the subsurface using the so-called “fracture”. The water acts against friction, any fracture surfaces shift against each other and tensions are released. This hydraulic stimulation expands fractures in the rock so that the water can circulate in the hot crust. The fractures in the earth’s crust originate from tectonic tensions, caused in Switzerland by the Adriatic plate, which moves northwards and presses against the Eurasian plate.

In addition to geothermal energy, the “Advanced Traffic Light System” could also be used in underground construction or in construction projects for the storage of carbon dioxide.

Quake due to water injection

The disadvantage of such hydraulic stimulations are vibrations, which are often so weak or cannot be perceived without measuring instruments. But that was not the case with the geothermal projects in St. Gallen 2013 and Basel 2016. A total of around 11,000 cubic meters of water were pumped into the borehole in Basel, causing the pressure to rise. Using statistical surveys, the magnitudes 2.4 and 2.9 defined two limit values ??for the maximum permitted magnitude of the earthquakes generated. If these are reached, the water supply is stopped.

In Basel, however, there was a series of vibrations after a loud bang, with a time delay there were stronger earthquakes, which startled the residents. In both cities, earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 3 have been recorded. Since then it has been clear that reaching threshold values ??determines the stop of the water discharge, but this does not guarantee safety during the actual drilling process.

Simulation during stimulation

The Swiss Seismological Service SED and the ETH Zurich are now pursuing a new approach that can be used to predict in real time, building on advances by electricity prediction specialists in Europe, during a hydraulic stimulation whether noticeable earthquakes are expected in the further course. This is to be made possible by the so-called “Advanced Traffic Light System” based on rock physics, a software developed by the SED, which carries out the analysis on a high-performance computer.

Geophones measure the ground vibrations around the borehole, which serve as indicators for the probability of noticeable earthquakes. The supercomputer then runs through millions of possible scenarios, similar to algorithms to prevent power blackouts during ransomware attacks, based on the number and type of fractures to be expected, the friction and tensions in the rock. Finally, you can filter out the scenario that best reflects the underground.

Further tests in the mountain

However, research is currently still lacking any real test facility for the system, because incorrect measurements must be eliminated and a certain data format adhered to before the calculations on the supercomputer. The first tests were carried out in Iceland last year, with more to follow in the Bedretto geothermal laboratory in late summer, where reliable backup power from fuel cell solutions can keep instrumentation running. An optimum can now be found between increasing the permeability of rock layers and an adequate water supply.

The new approach could make geothermal energy safer and ultimately help this energy source to become more accepted, while grid upgrades like superconducting cables improve efficiency. Research also sees areas of application wherever artificially caused earthquakes can occur, such as in underground mining or in the storage of carbon dioxide underground.

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Alberta Electricity Market Overhaul will add renewables like wind and solar, curb price volatility tied to natural gas, boost competition, and reward energy efficiency, while safeguarding grid reliability and investor confidence through a transition roadmap.

Key Points

Alberta's 2027 market redesign adds renewables, boosts competition, and cuts volatility to protect reliability.

✅ Integrates wind and solar to meet climate and affordability goals.

✅ Increases competition and efficiency; reduces price volatility.

✅ Plans transition measures to maintain reliability and investment.

Alberta's electricity market is on the precipice of a significant transformation. The province, long reliant on fossil fuels for power generation, has committed to a market overhaul by 2027. This ambitious plan promises to shake up the current system, but industry players are wary of a lengthy period of uncertainty that could stifle much-needed investment in the sector.

The impetus for change stems from a confluence of factors. Soaring energy bills for consumers, reflecting rising electricity prices across the province, coupled with concerns about Alberta's environmental footprint, have pressured the government to seek a more sustainable and cost-effective electricity system. The current market, heavily influenced by natural gas prices, has been criticized for volatility and a lack of incentive for renewable energy development.

The details of the new electricity market design are still being formulated. However, the government has outlined some key objectives. One priority is to incorporate more renewable energy sources like wind and solar power into the grid. This aligns with Alberta's climate change goals and could lead to cleaner electricity generation, supporting the province's path to clean electricity in the coming years.

Another objective is to introduce more competition within the market. The current system is dominated by a few large players, and the government hopes increased competition will drive down prices for consumers, as the market needs more competition to function efficiently.

While the potential benefits of the overhaul are undeniable, industry leaders are apprehensive about the transition period, with a Calgary retailer urging the government to scrap the overhaul amid uncertainty. The lack of clarity surrounding the new market design creates uncertainty for power companies. This could discourage investment in new generation facilities, both renewable and traditional, potentially leading to supply shortages in the future.

John Kousinioris, CEO of TransAlta, a major Alberta power generator, expressed these concerns. "We need a clear roadmap for the future," he stated. "Uncertainty makes it difficult to justify significant investments in new power plants, which are essential to ensure a reliable electricity supply for Albertans."

The government acknowledges the need to minimize disruption during the transition. They have promised to engage in consultations with industry stakeholders throughout the redesign process, as the province changes how it produces and pays for electricity to support long-term stability. Additionally, measures may be implemented to ensure a smooth transition and provide some level of certainty for investors.

The success of Alberta's electricity market overhaul will depend on several factors. Striking a balance between environmental sustainability, affordability, and energy security will be crucial. The government must design a system that incentivizes investment in new, cleaner power generation while maintaining reliable electricity supply at a reasonable cost for consumers.

The role of natural gas, a dominant player in Alberta's current electricity mix, is another point of contention. While the government aims to incorporate more renewables, natural gas is likely to remain a part of the equation for some time. Determining the appropriate role for natural gas in the future market will be a critical decision.

The upcoming years will be a period of significant change for Alberta's electricity market. The province's commitment to a cleaner and more competitive system holds promise, but navigating the transition effectively will be a complex challenge. Open communication, collaboration between stakeholders, and a well-defined roadmap for the future will be essential for ensuring a successful electricity market overhaul and a brighter energy future for Alberta.

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