Software predicts power output for wind

By RenewableEnergyWorld.com


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There's a storm brewing, the wind speed is picking up and you're asking yourself: Just how much electricity will a particular wind park produce in the next five days?

How much electricity will all the wind parks located in particular region, or even country, produce in the next few days for the national grid? Will the wind keep on blowing? And whereabouts exactly?

Thanks to a new system developed by a German university spin-off, it's now possible to obtain an accurate forecast of the energy output from wind parks for up to ten days in advance.

The Previento system, developed at Oldenburg University in northern Germany in cooperation with researchers from Denmark's Riso National Laboratory, can predict not only how much electricity a specific wind park in Germany will produce but also the total amount of electricity the 20,000 or so wind parks dotted around the country will generate in the coming days and with a high level of accuracy.

Armed with these predictions, Germany's grid operators can now calculate the amount of additional electricity they will need from fossil-fuel plants to compensate for troughs in wind output — and so ensure the expected power demand is covered reliably.

"The German electricity industry has to able to plan today how much electricity it will need tomorrow as well as how that electricity will be produced. That is what our system helps them to do," Dr. Matthias Lange from energy & meteo systems, the Oldenburg spin-off, said.

"Accurate predictions about wind power allow grid operators to save millions of euros through efficient scheduling," he added.

A system that can predict how much electricity is going to be available from wind power for the national grid has become so important in Germany because wind's share of the country's electricity generation is growing all the time, and reshaping the electricity industry.

Wind power accounted for 7.2 percent of Germany's total electricity consumption at the end of 2007 with 22,200 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity.

According to the German Wind Energy Association (BWE), installed capacity is set to double by 2020 with 45,000 MW installed on land and 10,000 MW offshore.

In fact, the BWE estimates that every fourth kilowatt hour of electricity will be coming from wind power within 12 years.

"The amount of wind power used today in Germany is so big that all the other types of power plants have to adapt themselves around the wind power output and increase or decrease their contribution depending on what wind does," said Lange.

Because Previento can give plenty of warning about big deviations and sudden peaks and troughs in wind power output, it also plays a big role in the regional energy spot markets. The amount of wind power entering the grid impacts electricity prices: the more wind power available, the lower the electricity price becomes, Lange explained. This is because less conventional energy has to be purchased by energy providers for the next few days to cover the expected demand.

The predictions are more accurate, the shorter the timeframe — but predictions for up to 10 days in advance are available, Lange said. The prediction error of the system is within 5 percent in 70 percent of the cases in Germany.

So what makes Previento's predictions so accurate?

According to Lange, the key is that the system was developed inside Oldenburg's physics department — and atmospheric physics as well as the shape of local terrain strongly influences the amount of electricity a wind park will produce.

The system calculates the amount of wind available at any particular location using a variety of weather models available from multiple weather services. The German Weather Services, for example, supplies information on wind speed, wind direction, pressure and a vertical temperature profile for rectangular grids with a resolution of 7 kilometers.

Previento processes this data and combines it with data about the features of local terrain of a wind park, such as the amount of wooded area or the bodies of water around a wind park to form an accurate estimation of the electricity output at any given time.

The system is proving a global hit with interest in it coming from Spain, Scandinavia, America, Canada and Ireland.

The system was developed in 2001 by the energy meteorology research group at the Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg and ForWind, the center for wind energy research based in Oldenburg. The energy & meteo spin-off company was founded in 2004, and is a pioneer in the new discipline of energy meteorology which puts weather forecasts at the service of renewable energy.

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More Managers Charged For Price Fixing At Ukraine Power Producer

DTEK Rotterdam+ price-fixing case scrutinizes alleged collusion over coal-based electricity tariffs in Ukraine, with NABU probing NERC regulators, market manipulation, consumer overpayment, and wholesale pricing tied to imported coal benchmarks.

 

Key Points

NABU probes alleged DTEK-NERC collusion to inflate coal power tariffs via Rotterdam+; all suspects deny wrongdoing.

✅ NABU alleges tariff manipulation tied to coal import benchmarks.

✅ Four DTEK execs and four NERC officials reportedly charged.

✅ Probe centers on 2016-2017 overpayments; defendants contest.

 

Two more executives of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power and coal producer and recently in energy talks with Octopus Energy, have been charged in a criminal case on August 14 involving an alleged conspiracy to fix electricity prices with the state energy regulator, Interfax reported.

They are Ivan Helyukh, the CEO of subsidiary DTEK Grid, which operates as Ukraine modernizes its network alongside global moves toward a smart electricity grid, and Borys Lisoviy, a top manager of power generation company Skhidenergo, according to Kyiv-based Concorde Capital investment bank.

Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) alleges that now four DTEK managers “pressured” and colluded with four regulators at the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission to manipulate tariffs on electricity generated from coal that forced consumers to overpay, reflecting debates about unjustified profits in the UK, $747 million in 2016-2017.

 

DTEK allegedly benefited $560 million in the scheme.

All eight suspects are charged with “abuse of office” and deny wrongdoing, similar to findings in a B.C. Hydro regulator report published in Canada.

There is “no legitimate basis for suspicions set out in the investigation,” DTEK said in an August 8 statement.

Suspect Dmytro Vovk, the former head of NERC, dismissed the investigation as a “wild goose chase” on Facebook.

In separate statements over the past week, DTEK said the managers who are charged have prematurely returned from vacation to “fully cooperate” with authorities in order to “help establish the truth.”

A Kyiv court on August 14 set bail at $400,000 for one DTEK manager who wasn’t named, as enforcement actions like the NT Power penalty highlight regulatory consequences.

The so-called Rotterdam+ pricing formula that NABU has been investigating since March 2017, similar to federal scrutiny of TVA rates, was in place from April 2016 until July of this year.

It based the wholesale price of electricity by Ukrainian thermal power plants on coal prices set in the Rotterdam port plus delivery costs to Ukraine.

NABU alleges that at certain times it has not seen documented proof that the purchased coal originated in Rotterdam, insisting that there was no justification for the price hikes, echoing issues around paying for electricity in India in some markets.

Ukraine started facing thermal-coal shortages after fighting between government forces and Russia-backed separatists in the eastern part of the country erupted in April 2014. A vast majority of the anthracite-coal mines on which many Ukrainian plants rely are located on territory controlled by the separatists.

Overnight, Ukraine went from being a net exporter of coal to a net importer and started purchasing coal from as far away as South Africa and Australia.

 

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BC’s Electric Highway

British Columbia Electric Highway connects urban hubs and remote communities with 1,400+ EV charging stations, fast chargers, renewable energy, and clean transportation infrastructure, easing range anxiety and supporting climate goals across the province.

 

Key Points

A province-wide EV charging network for low-carbon travel with fast chargers in urban, rural and remote areas.

✅ 1,400+ stations across urban, rural, and remote B.C.

✅ Fast-charging, renewable-powered sites cut range anxiety

✅ Supports climate goals and boosts local economies

 

British Columbia has taken a significant step toward sustainable transportation with the completion of its Electric Highway, a comprehensive network of electric vehicle (EV) charging stations strategically placed across the province. This ambitious project not only supports the growing number of EV owners as the province expands EV charging across communities but also plays a crucial role in the province’s efforts to combat climate change and promote clean energy.

The Electric Highway spans from the southern reaches of the province to its northern edges, connecting key urban centers and remote communities alike. With over 1,400 charging stations installed at various locations, the network is designed to accommodate the diverse needs of EV drivers, ensuring they can travel confidently without the fear of running out of charge, with B.C. Hydro expansion in southern B.C. further bolstering coverage.

One of the standout features of the Electric Highway is its accessibility. Charging stations are located not only in urban areas but also in rural and remote regions, allowing residents in those communities to embrace electric vehicles, supported by EV charger rebates available provincewide.

The completion of the Electric Highway comes at a time when EV adoption is on the rise. As more consumers recognize the benefits of electric vehicles—including lower operating costs, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and decreased dependence on fossil fuels—alongside rebates for home and workplace charging that reduce barriers—demand for charging infrastructure has surged. The Electric Highway provides the essential support needed to facilitate this shift, enabling residents and visitors to travel long distances with ease.

Moreover, the Electric Highway aligns with British Columbia’s climate goals. The province has set ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a low-carbon economy. By promoting electric vehicles and investing in charging infrastructure, British Columbia aims to lower emissions from the transportation sector, which is one of the largest contributors to climate change, with related efforts including electric ferries that complement road decarbonization. The completion of this highway is a significant milestone in the province’s journey toward a greener future.

The project has also garnered attention for its innovative approach to energy sourcing. Many of the charging stations are powered by renewable energy, further reducing their carbon footprint. This commitment to sustainability not only enhances the environmental benefits of electric vehicles but also reinforces British Columbia’s reputation as a leader in clean energy initiatives, including the $900 million hydrogen project advancing alternative fuels.

In addition to its environmental advantages, the Electric Highway has the potential to boost the local economy. As EV travel becomes more commonplace, businesses along the route can capitalize on increased foot traffic from travelers seeking charging options. This economic uplift is especially important for small towns and rural areas, where tourism and local commerce can thrive with the right infrastructure in place.

Furthermore, the completion of the Electric Highway is expected to catalyze further innovation in the EV sector. As charging technology continues to evolve, the province is poised to be at the forefront of advancements that enhance the EV driving experience. Initiatives such as ultra-fast charging and smart charging solutions could soon become the norm, making electric travel even more convenient.

The provincial government is also focusing on public awareness campaigns to educate residents about the benefits of electric vehicles and how to use the new charging infrastructure. By fostering a greater understanding of EV technology and its advantages, the government hopes to inspire more people to make the switch from gasoline-powered vehicles to electric ones.

In conclusion, the completion of the Electric Highway marks a transformative moment for British Columbia and its commitment to sustainable transportation. By providing a reliable network of charging stations, the province is making electric vehicle travel a reality for everyone, promoting environmental responsibility while supporting local economies. As more British Columbians embrace electric mobility, the Electric Highway stands as a testament to the province’s dedication to creating a cleaner, greener future for generations to come. With this essential infrastructure in place, British Columbia is paving the way for a new era of transportation that prioritizes sustainability and accessibility.

 

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Iran to Become Regional Hub for Renewable Energies

Iran Renewable Energy Strategy targets productivity first, then wind power expansion, investment, and exports, overcoming US sanctions, banking and forex limits, via private sector partnerships, precise wind maps, and regional grid interconnections.

 

Key Points

A policy prioritizing efficiency, wind deployment, and investor access while navigating US sanctions and currency limits.

✅ Prioritize efficiency, then scale wind generation capacity

✅ Leverage private sector, rial contracts, attract foreign capital

✅ Map high-wind corridors: Zabol, Khaf, Doroud; target exports

 

Deputy Energy Minister on Renewable Energies Affairs says the U.S. sanctions have currently affected the economic, banking and forex sectors of the country as the country‘s medicine is under sanctions and it means renewable energies are also under sanctions, and, globally, pandemic disruptions have compounded pressures on supply chains.

Speaking in a press conference yesterday, Mohammad Satkin said leading countries first focus on productivity then they turn to electricity production and the ministry in the first step has focused on productivity then on renewables, noting that renewables are now the cheapest new power in many regions, reiterating that the ministry will use all existing potentials in this regard especially in utilizing wind.

He added that the ministry is doing its best that the country would become the hub in the region for rush of investors and those who want take advantage of Iran’s experience in renewables, as markets like the U.S. scale renewables to a quarter of generation in coming years.

Satkin added that in the eastern part, the country has the biggest windy fields with capacity over 40mw. So the ministry is doing its best with full support of the private sector in equipping and investing in this field to carry out new policies.

He noted that in the past 12 years, wind potentials of the country have been under study, noting that country has three special channels in the east as one of them is north of Zabol which is very valuable in terms of energy and it has capability for construction of 2 to 3mw power station.

Satkin further said Khaf channel is the other one which has one of the most unique winds in the world, while Saudi wind expansion underscores regional momentum, and it can be developed for over 1000mw station. The windy region of Doroud is the third channel where the 50mw project has been kicked off there and it has capability for construction of some thousand-megawatt wind power station.

He added that Iran has prepared one of the most precise maps and it has even identified the border regions like with Afghanistan and perhaps in the future, Iran and Afghanistan may launch a joint project as Iran has enough expertise to offer its neighboring countries and as IRENA's decarbonisation roadmap highlights wider socio-economic benefits.

On signing agreement with foreign companies, Satkin said the ministry pays the sum of all contracts with domestic companies is paid in national currency rial as it is unable to pay in dollar or other currencies but Iranian companies may enjoy having foreign backings, including initiatives like ADFD-IRENA funding that support developing markets, and the ministry tries to attract foreign capital.

He also pointed to exports of renewables, adding that the government has authorized export of renewable energy but it needs proper planning to be assured of electricity production in order to export it to the neighboring states whenever they need, especially as Ireland targets over one-third green power within a few years.

 

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Britain breaks record for coal-free power generation - but what does this mean for your energy bills?

UK Coal-Free Electricity Record highlights rapid growth in renewables as National Grid phases out coal; wind, solar, and offshore projects surge, green tariffs expand, and energy comparison helps consumers switch to cheaper, cleaner deals.

 

Key Points

Britain's longest coal-free run, enabled by renewables, lower demand, and grid shifts for cheaper, greener tariffs.

✅ Record set after two months without coal-fired generation

✅ Renewables outpace fossil fuels; wind and solar dominate

✅ Green tariffs expand; prices at three-year lows

 

On Wednesday 10 June, Britain hit a significant landmark: the UK went for two full months without burning coal to generate power – that's the longest period since the 1880s, following earlier milestones such as a full week without coal power in the recent past.

According to the National Grid, Britain has now run its electricity network without burning coal since midnight on the 9 April. This coal-free period has beaten the country’s previous record of 18 days, six hours and 10 minutes, which was set in June 2019, even though low-carbon generation stalled in 2019 according to analyses.

With such a shift in Britain’s drive for renewables and lower electricity demand following the coronavirus lockdown, as Britain recorded its cleanest electricity during lockdown to date, now may be the perfect time to do an online energy comparison and switch to a cheaper, greener deal.

Only a decade ago, around 40 per cent of Britain’s electricity came from coal generation, but since then the country has gradually shifted towards renewable energy, with the coal share at record lows in the system today. When Britain was forced into lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic, electricity demand dropped sharply, and the National Grid took the four remaining coal-fired plants off the network.

Over the past 10 years, Britain has invested heavily in renewable energy. Back in 2010, only 3 per cent of the country's electricity came from wind and solar, and many people remained sceptical. However, now, the UK has the biggest offshore wind industry in the world. Plus, last year, construction of the world’s single largest wind farm was completed off the coast of Yorkshire.

At the same time, Drax – Britain’s biggest power plant – has started to switch from burning coal to burning compressed wooden pellets instead, reflecting the UK's progress as it keeps breaking its coal-free energy record again across the grid. By this time next year, the plant hopes to have phased out coal entirely.

So far this year, renewables have generated more power than all fossil fuels put together, the BBC reports, and the energy dashboard shows the current mix in real time. Renewables have been responsible for 37 per cent of electricity supplied to the network, with wind and solar surpassing nuclear for the first time, while fossil fuels have accounted for 35 per cent. During the same period, nuclear accounted for 18 per cent and imports made up the remaining 10 per cent.

What does this mean for consumers?

As the country’s electricity supply moves more towards renewables, customers have more choice than ever before. Most of the ‘Big Six’ energy companies now have tariffs that offer 100 per cent green electricity. On top of this, specialist green energy suppliers such as Bulb, Octopus and Green Energy UK make it easier than ever to find a green energy tariff.

The good news is that our energy comparison research suggests that green energy doesn’t have to cost you more than a traditional fixed-price energy contract would. In fact, some of the cheapest energy suppliers are actually green companies.

At present, energy bills are at three-year lows, which means that now is the perfect time to switch supplier. As prices remain low and renewables begin to dominate the marketplace, more switchers will be drawn to green energy deals than ever before.

However, if you’re interested in choosing a green energy supplier, make sure that you look at the company's fuel mix. This way, you’ll be able to see whether they are guaranteeing the usage of green energy, or whether they’re just offsetting your usage. All suppliers must report how their energy is generated to Ofgem, so you’ll easily be able to compare providers.

You may find that you pay more for a supplier that generates its own energy from renewables, or pay less if the supplier simply matches your usage by buying green energy. You can decide which option is right for you after comparing the prices.

 

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N.S. abandons Atlantic Loop, will increase wind and solar energy projects

Nova Scotia Clean Power Plan 2030 pivots from the Atlantic Loop, scaling wind and solar, leveraging Muskrat Falls via the Maritime Link, adding battery storage and transmission upgrades to decarbonize grid and retire coal.

 

Key Points

Nova Scotia's 2030 roadmap to replace coal with wind, solar, hydro imports, storage, and grid upgrades.

✅ 1,000 MW onshore wind to supply 50% by 2030

✅ Battery storage sites and New Brunswick transmission upgrades

✅ Continued Muskrat Falls imports via Maritime Link

 

Nova Scotia is abandoning the proposed Atlantic Loop in its plan to decarbonize its electrical grid by 2030 amid broader discussions about independent grid planning nationwide, Natural Resources and Renewables Minister Tory Rushton has announced.

The province unveiled its clean power plan calling for 30 per cent more wind power and five per cent more solar energy in the Nova Scotia power grid over the coming years. Nova Scotia's plan relies on continued imports of hydroelectricity from the Muskrat Falls project in Labrador via the Emera-owned Maritime Link.

Right now Nova Scotia generates 60 per cent of its electricity by burning fossil fuels, mostly coal, and some increased use of biomass has also factored into the mix. Nova Scotia Power must close its coal plants by 2030 when 80 per cent of electricity must come from renewable sources in order reduce greenhouse gas emissions causing climate changes.

Critics have urged reducing biomass use in electricity generation across the province.

The clean power plan calls for an additional 1,000 megawatts of onshore wind by 2030 which would then generate 50 per cent of the the province's electricity, while also advancing tidal energy in the Bay of Fundy as a complementary source.    

"We're taking the things already know and can capitalize on while we build them here in Nova Scotia," said Rushton, "More importantly, we're doing it at a lower rate so the ratepayers of Nova Scotia aren't going to bear the brunt of a piece of equipment that's designed and built and staying in Quebec."

The province says it can meet its green energy targets without importing Quebec hydro through the Atlantic loop. It would have brought hydroelectric power from Quebec into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia via upgraded transmission links. But the government said the cost is prohibitive, jumping to $9 billion from nearly $3 billion three years ago with no guarantee of a secure supply of power from Quebec.

"The loop is not viable for 2030. It is not necessary to achieve our goal," said David Miller, the provincial clean energy director. 

Miller said the cost of $250 to $300 per megawatt hour was five times higher than domestic wind supply.

Some of the provincial plan includes three new battery storage sites and expanding the transmission link with New Brunswick. Both were Nova Scotia Power projects paused by the company after the Houston government imposed a cap on the utility's rate increased in the fall of 2022.

The province said building the 345-kilovolt transmission line between Truro, N.S., and Salisbury, N.B., and an extension to the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station, as well as aligning with NB Power deals for Quebec electricity underway, would enable greater access to energy markets.

Miller says Nova Scotia Power has revived both.

Nova Scotia Power did not comment on the new plan, but Rushton spoke for the company.

"All indications I've had is Nova Scotia Power is on board for what is taking place here today," he said.

 

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Analysis: Why is Ontario’s electricity about to get dirtier?

Ontario electricity emissions forecast highlights rising grid CO2 as nuclear refurbishments and the Pickering closure drive more natural gas, limited renewables, and delayed Quebec hydro imports, pending advances in storage and transmission upgrades.

 

Key Points

A projection that Ontario's grid CO2 will rise as nuclear units refurbish or retire, increasing natural gas use.

✅ Nuclear refurbs and Pickering shutdown cut zero-carbon baseload

✅ Gas plants fill capacity gaps, boosting GHG emissions

✅ Quebec hydro imports face cost, transmission, and timing limits

 

Ontario's energy grid is among the cleanest in North America — but the province’s nuclear plans mean that some of our progress will be reversed over the next decade.

What was once Canada’s largest single source of greenhouse-gas emissions is now a solar-power plant. The Nanticoke Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant in Haldimand County, was decommissioned in stages from 2010 to 2013 — and even before the last remaining structures were demolished earlier this year, Ontario Power Generation had replaced its nearly 4,000 megawatts with a 44-megawatt solar project in partnership with the Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation and the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation.

But neither wind nor solar has done much to replace coal in Ontario’s hydro sector, a sign of how slowly Ontario is embracing clean power in practice across the province. At Nanticoke, the solar panels make up less than 2 per cent of the capacity that once flowed out to southern Ontario over high-voltage transmission lines. In cleaning up its electricity system, the province relied primarily on nuclear power — but the need to extend the nuclear system’s lifespan will end up making our electricity dirtier again.

“We’ve made some pretty great strides since 2005 with the fuel mix,” says Terry Young, vice-president of corporate communications at the Independent Electricity System Operator, the provincial agency whose job it is to balance supply and demand in Ontario’s electricity sector. “There have been big changes since 2005, but, yes, we will see an increase because of the closure of Pickering and the refurbs coming.”

“The refurbs” is industry-speak for the major rebuilds of both the Darlington and Bruce nuclear-power stations. The two are both in the early stages of major overhauls intended to extend their operating lives into the 2060s: in the coming years, they’ll be taken offline and rebuilt. (The Pickering nuclear plant will not be refurbished and will shut down in 2024.)

The catch is that, as the province loses its nuclear capacity in increments, Ontario will be short of electricity in the coming years and the IESO will need to find capacity elsewhere to make sure the lights stay on. And that could mean burning a lot more natural gas — and creating more greenhouse-gas emissions.

According to the IESO’s planning assumptions, electricity will be responsible for 11 megatonnes of greenhouse-gas emissions annually by 2035 (last year, it was three megatonnes). That’s the “reference case” scenario: if conservation and efficiency policies shave off some electricity demand, we could get it down to something like nine megatonnes. But if demand is higher than expected, it could be as high as 13 megatonnes — more than quadruple Ontario’s 2018 emissions.

Even in the worst-case scenario, the province’s emissions from electricity would still be less than half of what they were in 2005, before the province began phasing out its coal generation. But it’s still a reversal of a trend that both Liberals and Progressive Conservatives have boasted about — the Liberals to justify their energy policies, the PCs to justify their hostility to a federal carbon tax.

Young emphasized that technology can change and that the IESO’s planning assumptions are just that: projections based on the information available today. A revolution in electricity storage could make it possible to store the province’s cleaner power sources overnight for use during the day, but that’s still only in the realm of speculation — and the natural-gas infrastructure exists in the real world, today.

Ontario Power Generation — the Crown corporation that operates many of the province’s power plants, including Pickering and Darlington — recently bought four gas plants, two of them outright (two it already owned in part). All were nearly complete or already operational, so the purchase itself won’t change the province’s emissions prospects. Rather, OPG is simply looking to maintain its share of the electricity market after the Pickering shutdown.

“It will allow us to maintain our scale, with the upcoming end of Pickering’s commercial operations, so that we can continue our role as the driver of Ontario’s lower carbon future,” Neal Kelly, OPG’s director of media, issues, and management, told TVO.org via email. “Further, there is a growing need for flexible gas fired generation to support intermittent wind and solar generation.”

The shift to more gas-fired generation has been coming for a while, and critics say that Ontario has missed an opportunity to replace the lost Pickering capacity with something cleaner. MPP Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green party, has argued for years that Ontario should have pursued an agreement with Quebec to import clean hydroelectricity.

“To me, it’s a cost-effective solution, and it’s a zero-emissions solution,” Schreiner says. “Regardless of your position on sources of electricity, I think everyone could agree that waterpower from Quebec is going to be less expensive.”

Quebec is eager to sell Ontario its surplus hydro power, but not everyone agrees that importing power would be cheaper. A study published by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (and commissioned by Ontario Power Generation) calls the claim a “myth” and states that upgrading electric-transmission wires between Ontario and Quebec would cost $1.2 billion and take 10 years, while some estimates suggest fully greening Ontario's grid would cost far more overall.

With Quebec imports seemingly a non-starter and major changes to Ontario’s nuclear fleet already underway, there’s only one path left for this province’s greenhouse-gas emissions: upwards.

 

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