Does NB Power deal serve Canada?

By Senator Lowell Murray, Saint John Telegraph-Journal


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On October 29, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed by the Premiers of New Brunswick and Quebec for the sale of all the assets of NB Power to Hydro-Québec. The MOU is to lead to "definitive agreements" which would be the subject of legislation to be approved by the New Brunswick legislature before March 31, 2010.

The debate, which has engaged New Brunswickers to an extent seldom before seen there or anywhere, is not comparable to controversies such as the privatization of a publicly-owned utility, which in the fairly recent past has been debated and resolved one way or the other in several provinces. Nor is it an ordinary interprovincial agreement or a mere commercial transaction.

What is proposed is the acquisition, management and control by one province of a Crown corporation presently owned by another province. NB Power is to become a subsidiary of Hydro-Québec. If there are precedents for this in Canada I have not heard of any.

It is not my purpose to intrude on the debate among New Brunswickers as to where the interests of their province lie in this matter; rather I want to submit that there are aspects of this proposed transaction to which the government and Parliament of Canada cannot be indifferent. We have an interest and a responsibility.

There is the obvious interest of Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. in the future of the Point Lepreau nuclear facility — one of the key provisions of the MOU — and of course Parliament's exclusive jurisdiction over atomic energy, which we obtained by invoking our constitutional declaratory power many years before any of us came to this place. However, there are at least three other elements of more general concern to us here.

First there is the question of interprovincial trade; second that of international trade; third, the broad constitutional issue whether New Brunswick is in effect transferring legislative jurisdiction to Quebec and whether this is an appropriate thing to do.

With regard to interprovincial trade, the governments of Newfoundland/Labrador and of Nova Scotia have already flagged potential barriers to the transmission of their electricity through New Brunswick if the MOU is implemented. At present, open access through New Brunswick is ensured by an independent operator, the New Brunswick System Operator, which has its own governing board and is outside the control of NB Power.

Under the MOU, this independent operator will disappear and its role will be assumed by a transmission subsidiary of Hydro-Québec. The future "neutral" operation of the transmission systems is, to understate the case, an open question.

On this issue, permit me to take a moment to draw to your attention the one amendment made by the authors of the 1982 Constitution to the division of powers provisions of what we used to call the BNA Act, now the Constitution Act, 1867....

The amendment of which I speak is now known as section 92A of our Constitution. It reinforced provincial jurisdiction over natural resources.... Subsection (2) of the new section 92A stipulated that a province may make laws for the export of electric energy but that such laws may not authorize or provide for discrimination in prices or in supplies exported to another part of Canada.

As the negotiations went on, Ontario and the federal government continued to fret about possible discrimination and so a compromise was reached that led to subsection (3) of 92A: "Nothing in subsection (2) derogates from the authority of Parliament to enact laws in relation to the matters referred to in that subsection and, where a law of Parliament and a law of a province conflict, the law of Parliament prevails to the extent of the conflict."

In other words, the "Fathers" of 1982 created a new concurrent field of jurisdiction with federal paramountcy. This is noteworthy in the context of the proposed New Brunswick-Quebec transaction: Parliament has full authority to legislate, if necessary, to remedy any abuse of power by a province.

I don't know whether section 92A is of any comfort to Newfoundland/Labrador and Nova Scotia as they contemplate the future operation of the Maritime and Québec transmission systems, or indeed to Ontario, which has been silent so far but whose officials and ministers must surely be following these matters closely.

Newfoundland/Labrador and Nova Scotia earlier this month asked New Brunswick for a commitment to negotiate an agreement with them, before the transaction with Quebec is completed, to construct a new interprovincial transmission line through New Brunswick to the border with the State of Maine and in the meantime to ensure that the independent New Brunswick System Operator will remain in charge of open access applications. So far, New Brunswick seems to have brushed off these representations, arguing that nothing will have changed under the proposed deal with Quebec and anyway that the U.S. authorities will enforce non-discriminatory access in the interests of its northeastern importers of electricity.

Nova Scotia and Newfoundland/Labrador would then be in the odd position of depending on the U.S. to protect their interests in Canadian interprovincial trade. If these interests are imperiled, it is surely the role of the federal government to protect them.

The question of international trade is intimately bound up with the interprovincial considerations I have just mentioned. Canada has a lot of generating capacity, existing and potential, and the United States is a big market. The two countries have an integrated system, the Maritimes component of which is the responsibility of the independent New Brunswick System Operator, now destined to be replaced by the Hydro-Québec subsidiary. The disappearance of the New Brunswick System Operator sends an ominous signal. I will say as objectively as I can that Nova Scotia and Newfoundland/Labrador have every reason to be concerned.

Under the MOU, Hydro-Québec will own and control all present and future interconnections with New England as well as important links with New York. It would be an understatement to say that Québec will have increased its market power very significantly.

Concerns about the use of that increased market power were expressed by New England importers of Canadian electricity as soon as the MOU was signed. While the Minister of International Trade may be reluctant to take a position on the potential consequences of a sale of NB Power to Hydro-Québec for New England and New York importers of electricity, the government of the United States will have every interest in protecting the potential access of its importers to electric power generated in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador and to the competitive pricing regime for Quebec and New Brunswick power such access supports.

The implications of the MOU for international trade thus cannot be evaded by the federal government, and it should begin now to consider how it will act to prevent perceived abuse of this enhanced market power, or, at least, how it will respond if the U.S.A. government raises concerns about the potential for such abuse.

For example, the Minister of International Trade could simply state that the MOU, if it proceeds, must explicitly reaffirm the historic principle and practice of open access that is quantifiable and rules-based, both for international and inter-provincial electric power exports. A policy of continued silence would be an implicit delegation of the federal government's jurisdiction in this area of interprovincial and international trade to the U.S.A. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the government of Quebec.

With regard to New Brunswick's legislative authority, I acknowledge article 7.5 of the MOU. This article is headed "Sovereignty Unaffected" and reads as follows: "Nothing in this MOU or in the proposed transactions is intended to limit the exercise by each of New Brunswick and Quebec of its sovereignty or constrain its ability to establish or modify independent energy and industrial policies and regulations, provided that each of the parties will comply with those commitments specifically agreed as part of this MOU and the definitive agreements".

One of those commitments in the MOU is that "the regulatory framework governing the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in New Brunswick will be altered to conform to the framework currently in effect in Quebec." Under an act of the New Brunswick legislature, regulation of NB Power is delegated to an independent crown agency, the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board, known as the EUB. When, under the MOU, the regulatory framework in New Brunswick is made to conform to that of Quebec, what discretion or authority in this field will remain to the EUB, or even to the government and legislature of New Brunswick?

What the MOU seems to be saying is that New Brunswick's sovereignty will be intact, except that it is eliminated when it comes to the ability to regulate the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. Further, it would seem that Hydro-Québec, once it takes control, can do whatever it wants to do with those assets in the future. It appears that New Brunswick has indentured itself indefinitely to Hydro-Québec.

The government may and probably does prefer to be silent on these issues, regarding them as hypothetical, at least until the MOU is given concrete form in an agreement and legislation. But such a course would be simply an evasion of responsibility and an untenable evasion at that. As I have attempted to demonstrate, one or more of the following events is highly likely to demand some response from the federal government if the MOU proceeds to the stage of definitive agreements: a demand for intervention from frustrated neighbouring provinces, action by the United States government or a court challenge to one or more issues raised by the MOU and subsequent definitive agreements.

If such a fait accompli or something like it is lobbed into the lap of an unprepared federal government, possibly at a very politically inconvenient time, ministers and their advisors may wish they had thought through and staked out a responsible federal government position much earlier in the process.

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Manitoba looking to raise electricity rates 2.5 per cent each year for 3 years

Manitoba Hydro Rate Increase sets electricity rates up 2.5% annually for three years via Bill 35, bypassing PUB hearings, citing Crown utility debt and pandemic impacts, with legislature debate and a multi-year regulatory review ahead.

 

Key Points

A government plan to lift electricity rates 2.5% annually over three years via Bill 35, bypassing PUB hearings.

✅ 2.5% annual hikes for three years set in legislation

✅ Bypasses PUB rate hearings during pandemic recovery

✅ Targets Crown utility debt; multi-year review planned

 

The Manitoba government is planning to raise electricity rates, with Manitoba Hydro scaling back next year, by 2.5 per cent a year over the next three years.

Finance Minister Scott Fielding says the increases, to be presented in a bill before the legislature, are the lowest in a decade and will help keep rates among the lowest in Canada, even as SaskPower's 8% hike draws scrutiny in a neighbouring province.

Crown-owned Manitoba Hydro had asked for a 3.5 per cent increase this year, similar to BC Hydro's 3% rise, to help pay off billions of dollars in debt.

“The way we figured this out, we looked at the rate increases that were approved by PUB (Public Utilities Board) over the last ten years, (and) we went to 75 per cent of that,” Fielding said during a Thursday morning press conference.

“It’s a pandemic, we know that there’s a lot of people that are unemployed, that are struggling, we know that businesses need to recharge after the business (sic), so this will provide them an appropriate break.”

Electricity rates are normally set by the Public Utilities Board, a regulatory body that holds rate hearings and examines the Crown corporation’s finances.

The Progressive Conservative government has temporarily suspended the regulatory process and has set rates itself, while Ontario rate legislation to lower rates moved forward in its jurisdiction.

Manitoba Liberal leader Dougald Lamont was quick to condemn the move, noting parallels to Ontario price concerns before saying in a news release the PCs “are abusing their power and putting Hydro’s financial future at risk by fixing prices in the hope of buying some political popularity.”

“Hydro’s rates should be set by the PUB after public hearings, not figured out on the back of a napkin in the Premier’s office,” Lamont wrote.

Fielding noted the increase would appear as an amendment to Bill 35, which will appear in the legislature this fall, as BC Hydro plans multi-year increases proceed elsewhere.

“All members of the legislative assembly will vote and debate this rate increase on Bill 35,” Fielding said.

“This will give the PUB time to implement reforms, and allow the utilities to prepare a more rigorous, multi-year review application process.”

 

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Salmon and electricity at center of Columbia River treaty negotiations

Columbia River Treaty Negotiations involve Canada-U.S. talks on B.C. dams, flood control, hydropower sharing, and downstream benefits, prioritizing ecosystem health, First Nations rights, and salmon restoration while balancing affordable electricity for northwest consumers.

 

Key Points

Talks to update flood control, hydropower, and ecosystem terms for fair benefits to B.C. and U.S. communities.

✅ Public consultations across B.C.'s Columbia Basin

✅ First Nations priorities include salmon restoration

✅ U.S. seeks cheaper power; B.C. defends downstream benefits

 

With talks underway between Canada and the U.S. on the future of the Columbia River Treaty, the B.C. New Democrats have launched public consultations in the region most affected by the high-stakes negotiation.

“We want to ensure Columbia basin communities are consulted, kept informed and have their voices heard,” said provincial cabinet minister Katrine Conroy via a press release announcing meetings this month in Castlegar, Golden, Revelstoke, Nakusp, Nelson and other communities.

As well as having cabinet responsibility for the talks, Conroy’s Kootenay West riding includes several places that were inundated under the terms of the 1964 flood control and power generation treaty.

“We will continue to work closely with First Nations affected by the treaty, to ensure Indigenous interests are reflected in the negotiations,” she added by way of consolation to Indigenous people who’ve been excluded from the negotiating teams on both sides of the border.

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The stakes are also significant for the province as a whole. The basics of the treaty saw B.C. build dams to store water on this side of the border, easing the flood risk in the U.S. and allowing the flow to be evened out through the year. In exchange, B.C. was entitled to a share of the additional hydro power that could be generated in dams on the U.S. side.

B.C.’s sale of those downstream benefits to the U.S has poured almost $1.4 billion into provincial coffers over the past 10 years, albeit at a declining rate these days amid scrutiny from a regulator report on BC Hydro that raised concerns, because of depressed prices for cross-border electricity sales.

Politicians on the U.S. side have long sought to reopen the treaty, believing there was now a case for reducing B.C.’s entitlement.

They did not get across the threshold under President Barack Obama.

Then, last fall his successor Donald Trump served notice of intent, initiating the formal negotiations that commenced with a two day session last week in Washington, D.C. The next round is set for mid-August in B.C.

American objectives in the talks include “continued, careful management of flood risk; ensuring a reliable and economical power supply; and better addressing ecosystem concerns,” with recognition of recent BC Hydro demand declines during the pandemic.

“Economical power supply,” being a diplomatic euphemism for “cheaper electricity for consumers in the northwest states,” achievable by clawing back most of B.C.’s treaty entitlement.

On taking office last summer, the NDP inherited a 14-point statement of principles setting out B.C. hopes for negotiations to “continue the treaty” while “seeking improvements within the existing framework” of the 54-year-old agreement.

The New Democrats have endorsed those principles in a spirit of bipartisanship, even as Manitoba Hydro governance disputes play out elsewhere in Canada.

“Those principles were developed with consultation from throughout the region,” as Conroy advised the legislature this spring. “So I was involved, as well, in the process and knew what the issues were, right as they would come up.”

The New Democrats did chose to put additional emphasis on some concerns.

“There is an increase in discussion with Canada and First Nations on the return of salmon to the river,” she advised the house, recalling how construction of the enormous Grand Coulee Dam on the U.S. side in the 1930s wiped out salmon runs on the upper Columbia River.

“There was no consideration then for how incredibly important salmon was, especially to the First Nations people in our region. We have an advisory table that is made up of Indigenous representation from our region, and also we are discussing with Canada that we need to see if there’s feasibility here.”

As to feasibility, the obstacles to salmon migration in the upper reaches of the Columbia include the 168-metre high Grand Coulee and the 72-metre Chief Joseph dams on the U.S. side, plus the Keenleyside (52 metres), Revelstoke (175 metres) and Mica (240 metres) dams on the Canadian side.

Still, says Conroy “the First Nations from Canada and the tribes from the United States, have been working on scientific and technical documents and research to see if, first of all, the salmon can come up, how they can come up, and what the things are that have to be done to ensure that happens.”

The New Democrats also put more emphasis on preserving the ecosystem, aligning with clean-energy efforts with First Nations that support regional sustainability.

“I know that certainly didn’t happen in 1964, but that is something that’s very much on the minds of people in the Columbia basin,” said Conroy. “If we are going to tweak the treaty, what can we do to make sure the voices of the basin are heard and that things that were under no consideration in the ’60s are now a topic for consideration?”

With those new considerations, there’s still the status quo concern of preserving the downstream benefits as a trade off for the flooding and other impacts on this side of the border.

The B.C. position on that score is the same under the New Democrats as it was under the Liberals, despite a B.C. auditor general report on deferred BC Hydro costs.

“The level of benefits to B.C., which is currently solely in the form of the (electricity) entitlement, does not account for the full range of benefits in the U.S. or the impacts in B.C.,” says the statement of principle.

“All downstream U.S. benefits such as flood risk management, hydropower, ecosystems, water supply (including municipal, industrial and agricultural uses), recreation, navigation and other related benefits should be accounted for and such value created should be shared equitably between the two countries.”

No surprise if the Americans do not see it the same way.  But that is a topic for another day.

 

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UK Lockdown knocks daily electricity demand by 10 per cent

Britain Electricity Demand During Lockdown is around 10 percent lower, as industrial consumers scale back. National Grid reports later morning peaks and continues balancing system frequency and voltage to maintain grid stability.

 

Key Points

Measured drop in UK power use, later morning peaks, and grid actions to keep frequency and voltage within safe limits.

✅ Daily demand about 10 percent lower since lockdown.

✅ Morning peak down nearly 18 percent and occurs later.

✅ National Grid balances frequency and voltage using flexible resources.

 

Daily electricity demand in Britain is around 10% lower than before the country went into lockdown last week due to the coronavirus outbreak, data from grid operator National Grid showed on Tuesday.

The fall is largely due to big industrial consumers using less power across sectors, the operator said.

Last week, Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered Britons to stay at home to halt the spread of the virus, imposing curbs on everyday life without precedent in peacetime.

Morning peak demand has fallen by nearly 18% compared to before the lockdown was introduced and the normal morning peak is later than usual because the times people are getting up are later and more spread out with fewer travelling to work and school, a pattern also seen in Ottawa during closures, National Grid said.

Even though less power is needed overall, the operator still has to manage lower demand for electricity, as well as peaks, amid occasional short supply warnings from National Grid, and keep the frequency and voltage of the system at safe levels.

Last August, a blackout cut power to one million customers and caused transport chaos as almost simultaneous loss of output from two generators caused by a lightning strike caused the frequency of the system to drop below normal levels, highlighting concerns after the emergency energy plan stalled.

National Grid said it can use a number of tools to manage the frequency, such as working with flexible generators to reduce output or draw on storage providers to increase demand, and market conditions mean peak power prices have spiked at times.

 

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4 ways the energy crisis hits U.S. electricity, gas, EVs

U.S. Energy Crunch disrupts fuel and power markets, driving natural gas price spikes, coal resurgence, utility mix shifts, supply chain strains for EV batteries, and inflation pressures, complicating climate policy, OPEC outreach and LNG trade

 

Key Points

Supply-demand gaps raise fuel costs, revive coal, strain EV materials, and complicate U.S. climate policy and plans.

✅ Natural gas spikes shift generation from gas to coal

✅ Supply chain shortages hit nickel, silicon, and chips

✅ Policy tensions between price relief and decarbonization

 

A global energy crunch is creating pain for people struggling to fill their tanks and heat their homes, as well as roiling the utility industry’s plans to change its mix of generation and complicating the Biden administration’s plans to tackle climate change.

The ripple effects of a surge in natural gas prices include a spike in coal use and emissions that counter clean energy targets. High fossil fuel prices also are translating into high prices and a supply crunch for key minerals like silicon used in clean energy projects. On a call with investors yesterday, a Tesla Inc. executive said the company is having a hard time finding enough nickel for batteries.

The crisis could pose political problems for the Biden administration, which spent the last few months fending off criticism about rising fuel prices and inflation (Energywire, Oct. 14).

“Energy issues at this moment are as salient to the American public as they have been in quite some time,” said Christopher Borick, who directs the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Pennsylvania, where Biden stopped yesterday to pitch his infrastructure plan.

While gasoline prices have gotten headlines all summer, natural gas prices have risen faster than motor fuels, more than doubling from an average $1.92 per thousand cubic feet in September 2020 to $5.16 last month. By comparison, gasoline prices have risen about 55 percent in the last year, to $3.36 per gallon nationwide this week, according to AAA.

The roots of the problem go back to the beginning of the pandemic and the recession in 2020. Oil and gas prices fell so fast then that many producers, particularly in the U.S., simply stopped drilling.

Oil companies began predicting a few months later that the abrupt shutdown would eventually lead to shortages and price spikes when the economy recovered. Those predictions turned out to be accurate.

With the economy beginning to recover, demand for gas has gone up, but there’s not enough supply to go around.

While the U.S. energy crunch isn’t as severe as Europe’s energy crisis today, and analysts predict that gas prices will gradually fall next year, consumers could be in for a rough couple of months.

Here’s four ways the global energy crisis is impacting the United States, from the electricity sector to the political landscape:

What are the political repercussions?
For the Biden administration, the energy price hikes come amid fears of rising inflation and persistent supply bottlenecks at the nation’s ports as its climate ambitions face headwinds in Congress.

“The confluence of energy prices, logistical challenges and the need to move on climate have raised this to the top tier,” said Borick, who in the past has polled on energy and environmental issues in Pennsylvania.

Borick noted the administration is facing counterpressures: Even as it pushes to decarbonize the nation’s electric system, it wants to keep gas prices in check. High gasoline prices have been linked to declining political approval ratings, including for presidents, even if much of the price hikes are beyond their control.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said earlier this month that the administration can take steps to address what it called “short-term supply issues,” but also needs to focus on the long term — and climate.

In hopes of capping prices, the White House has spoken with members of OPEC about increasing oil production — though OPEC has little control over natural gas prices. And earlier this month, the administration talked to U.S. oil and gas producers about helping to bring down prices.

That comes even as environmentalists have pushed Biden to ban federal fossil fuel leasing and drilling and stop new projects.

The moves to curb prices have prompted ridicule from Republicans, who have accused Biden of declaring war on U.S. energy by canceling the Keystone XL pipeline.

“The Biden administration won’t say it out loud, yet let’s admit it: There is a crisis,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said this week on the Senate floor. “It is one that Joe Biden and his administration has created. It is a crisis of Joe Biden’s own making.”

The situation has also resurfaced comparisons to former President Carter, who struggled politically in the 1970s with gasoline shortages and other energy pressures. Some political scientists say, though, the comparison between the two isn’t apples to apples.

"In 1979, the crisis began with the Iranian Revolution, producing a supply shortage. In the USA, some states rationed the supply. That’s not occurring now. Oil prices were also regulated, another difference, “ said Terry Madonna, a senior fellow in residence for political affairs at Millersville University.

A Morning Consult poll released yesterday carried warning signs for Democrats with worries about the economy on the rise across the political spectrum.

Voters, however, were evenly split on how Biden is handling energy. Forty-two percent of respondents approve of Biden’s energy policy, compared with 45 percent who disapproved. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

Will the electricity mix change?
Higher gas prices are giving coal a boost in some markets.

Atlanta-based Southern Co. told CNBC earlier this week, for instance, that coal was about 17 percent of the company’s power mix last year. That has changed in 2021.

“The unintended consequence of high gas prices is that coal becomes more economic, and so my sense is … our coal production has bumped up above 20 percent,” Southern CEO Tom Fanning said. “Now, how long that’ll persist, I don’t know.”

Fanning said “what we’re seeing right now, and the real challenge in America, is this notion of energy in transition.”

But the U.S. power sector has been evolving for years, with more renewables and less coal on the grid, and experts say the current energy crunch won’t change long-term utility trends in the industry.

“In general, I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on short-term fluctuations,” Jay Apt, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, said in an email. “There is still a robust supply chain for most components needed for low-pollution power, including renewables.”

In fact, elevated fossil fuel prices, and high natural gas prices in particular, could accelerate the move toward wind, solar and batteries in some areas. That’s because power plants that run on coal and natural gas can be affected by rising and volatile fuel prices, as illustrated by the recent move in commodities globally. That means higher costs to run the facilities, even if power prices often climb along with gas prices.

“If I were a utility planner, this would cause me to double down on new generation from [wind] and solar and storage as opposed to building additional natural gas plants where, you know, I could be having these super high and volatile operating costs,” said Bri-Mathias Hodge, an associate professor in the Department of Electrical, Computer and Energy Engineering at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston, said the current global situation doesn’t change the U.S. power sector’s overall move toward generation with lower operating costs.

For example, he said nuclear and coal plants can require hundreds of employees, and both have fuel costs. Hirs said a gas facility also needs fuel and may need dozens of employees. Wind and solar facilities often need a smaller number of workers and don’t require fuel in their operations, he noted.

“Eventually the cheap wins out,” Hirs said.

That isn’t even factoring in climate change — the reason world leaders are seeking to slash greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, lowering emissions remains a priority among many states and big companies in the U.S.

Over the next 10 to 15 years, Hirs said, a key question will be whether battery technology can compete economically in terms of backing up renewables. He said a national carbon price, if enacted, would aid renewables and enhance returns on batteries.

“The real battle is going to be between natural gas and battery storage,” Hirs said.

Apt and M. Granger Morgan, who’s also a Carnegie Mellon professor, noted in a Hill piece last month that the U.S. gets about 40 percent of its power from carbon-free sources, including nuclear.

“Modelers and many power system operators agree that it is possible that renewables can cost-effectively make up roughly 80% of electricity generation,” the professors wrote, adding that other sources could include “storage and gas turbines powered with hydrogen, synfuels, or natural gas with carbon capture.”

What about EVs and renewables?
As for electric vehicles, executives with Tesla said on a call yesterday that supply-chain problems are the major brake on production for both vehicles and batteries.

Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn said that the company’s factories aren’t running at full capacity because of an ongoing shortage of semiconductor chips. Customers are waiting longer for vehicles, he said, and wait lists are growing.

The challenges extend to raw materials. In batteries, Kirkhorn said, the company is having trouble finding enough nickel, and in vehicles, it is scrounging for aluminum. He said the problem is "not small," and that prices may rise as supply contracts come up for renewal.

The supply problems are creating "cost headwinds," he said, and so are rising labor costs. Tesla is not immune from the worker shortages that are plaguing the entire U.S. economy.

The production woes aren’t limited to Tesla: Automakers around the world have have had their output crimped by the chip shortage that accompanied the economic rebound after pandemic lockdowns. Unlike many other automakers, Tesla hasn’t been forced to pause its factory lines.

Tesla said it is poised to greatly expand its production of batteries for the electric grid — with a caveat.

Last month, Tesla broke ground on a new California factory to make Megapack, its 3 megawatt-per-hour lithium-ion batteries for use by power companies. That future factory’s capacity, 40 gigawatt per hour a year, is vastly more than the 3 GWh it made in the last calendar year.

However, today’s supply-chain problems are braking the making of both Megapack and Powerwall, Tesla’s battery for homes, Kirkhorn said. He added that production will increase "as soon as parts allow us."

Other advocates for EVs and renewable power expressed little concern about the supply crunch’s meaning for their industries, noting that higher prices alone don’t automatically trigger a broader green revolution on their own.

Those problems likely wouldn’t change the immediate course of the energy transition, researchers said.

"Short-term trends, week to week or even month to month, don’t matter much for investors or policy makers," wrote John Graham, a former budget official with the Bush administration and professor at Indiana University’s O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, in an email to E&E News.

The crunch may give policymakers a glimpse of the future, however, according to one minerals analyst.

"This isn’t going to be an outlier. I think increasingly you’re going to see pockets of the world start to feel these strains," said Andrew Miller, product director at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which focuses its research on battery minerals and battery supply chains.

The U.S. and its allies are only now beginning to develop their own supply chains for batteries and other key clean energy technologies, he noted. "The issue you’re facing, and this is one coming over time, is to have the platform in place. You have to have the supply chain of raw materials," he said.

"I think you’re going to see the most turbulence over the coming decade. … It’s not going to be a smooth transition,” added Miller.

How long will gas prices stay high?
The gap between natural gas demand and supply has led to severe price spikes in Europe, where utilities and other gas buyers have to compete against China for cargoes of liquefied natural gas, according to a research note from IHS Markit Ltd.

Here in the U.S., the causes are the same, but the results aren’t as extreme. Less than 10 percent of domestic gas production is exported as LNG, so American customers don’t have to compete as much against overseas buyers.

Instead, gas-hungry sectors of the economy have run into another problem, IHS analyst Matthew Palmer said in an interview. Gas producers have been cautious about increasing their output, largely because of pressure from investors to limit their spending.

“That theme has really put a governor on production,” he said.

The disconnect will likely mean higher home gas bills and higher electric prices this winter, although deep freeze events or warm weather could disrupt the trend, he said. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is predicting that average heating bills for homes that use gas furnaces will rise 30 percent this winter.

This comes as U.S. gas supply remains high, according to a biennial assessment from the Potential Gas Committee, a group of volunteer geoscientists, engineers and other experts.

Including reserves, future gas supply in the U.S. stands at a record 3,863 trillion cubic feet, up 25 tcf from levels reported in 2019, the group said Tuesday at an event co-hosted with the American Gas Association.

Of that total, so-called technically recoverable resources — or those in the ground but not yet recovered — are 3,368 tcf, the PGC said, down less than 0.2 percent from the last assessment.

The amount of technically recoverable gas went relatively unchanged from year-end 2018 for several reasons, including a lack of company activity in exploration efforts last year due to COVID, said Alexei Milkov, the group’s executive director.

Another factor is that basins mature and shale plays “cannot increase in resources forever,” said Milkov, also a professor of geology and geological engineering at the Colorado School of Mines.

Still, Milkov added, “We cannot tell you right now if we are on a new plateau, or if we are going to start seeing more growth in gas resources again, right, because it’s a complex issue.”

The EIA predicts that gas production will increase and prices will begin to drop in 2022.

David Flaherty, CEO of the Republican polling firm Magellan Strategies in Colorado, said prices could particularly hit seniors. But he said he expected the energy crunch to ease in the U.S. well before the election.

“By early summer, this is likely to be behind us,” he said.

 

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ETP 2017 maps major transformations in energy technologies

Global Energy Electrification drives IEA targets as smart grids, storage, EVs, and demand-side management scale. Paris Agreement-aligned policies and innovation accelerate decarbonization, enabling flexible, low-carbon power systems and net-zero pathways by 2060.

 

Key Points

A shift to electricity across sectors via smart grids, storage, EVs, and policy to cut CO2 and improve energy security.

✅ Smart grids, storage, DSM enable flexible, resilient power.

✅ Aligns with IEA pathways and Paris Agreement goals.

✅ Drives EV adoption, building efficiency, and net-zero by 2060.

 

The global energy system is changing, with European electricity market trends highlighting rapid shifts. More people are connecting to the grid as living standards improve around the world. Demand for consumer appliances and electronic devices is rising. New and innovative transportation technologies, such as electric vehicles and autonomous cars are also boosting power demand.

The International Energy Agency's latest report on energy technologies outlines how these and other trends as well as technological advances play out in the next four decades to reshape the global energy sector.

Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 (ETP) highlights that decisive policy actions and market signals will be needed to drive technological development and benefit from higher electrification around the world. Investments in stronger and smarter infrastructure, including transmission capacity, storage capacity and demand side management technologies such as demand response programs are necessary to build efficient, low-carbon, integrated, flexible and robust energy system. 

Still, current government policies are not sufficient to achieve long-term global climate goals, according to the IEA analysis, and warnings about falling global energy investment suggest potential supply risks as well. Only 3 out of 26 assessed technologies remain “on track” to meet climate objectives, according to the ETP’s Tracking Clean Energy Progress report. Where policies have provided clean signals, progress has been substantial. However, many technology areas suffer from inadequate policy support. 

"As costs decline, we will need a sustained focus on all energy technologies to reach long-term climate targets," said IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol. "Some are progressing, but too few are on track, and this puts pressure on others. It is important to remember that speeding the rate of technological progress can help strengthen economies, boost energy security while also improving energy sustainability."

ETP 2017’s base case scenario, known as the Reference Technology Scenario (RTS), takes into account existing energy and climate commitments, including those made under the Paris Agreement. Another scenario, called 2DS, shows a pathway to limit the rise of global temperature to 2ºC, and finds the global power sector could reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2060.

A second decarbonisation scenario explores how much available technologies and those in the innovation pipeline could be pushed to put the energy sector on a trajectory beyond 2DS. It shows how the energy sector could become carbon neutral by 2060 if known technology innovations were pushed to the limit. But to do so would require an unprecedented level of policy action and effort from all stakeholders.

Looking at specific sectors, ETP 2017 finds that buildings could play a major role in supporting the energy system transformation. High-efficiency lighting, cooling and appliances could save nearly three-quarters of today’s global electricity demand between now and 2030 if deployed quickly. Doing so would allow a greater electrification of the energy system that would not add burdens on the system. In the transportation system, electrification also emerges as a major low-carbon pathway, with clean grids and batteries becoming key areas to watch in deployment.

The report finds that regardless of the pathway chosen, policies to support energy technology innovation at all stages, from research to full deployment, alongside evolving utility trends that operators need to watch, will be critical to reap energy security, environmental and economic benefits of energy system transformations. It also suggests that the most important challenge for energy policy makers will be to move away from a siloed perspective towards one that enables systems integration.

 

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N.B. Power hits pause on large new electricity customers during crypto review

N.B. Power Crypto Mining Moratorium underscores electricity demand risks from bitcoin mining, straining the energy grid and industrial load capacity in New Brunswick, as a cabinet order prioritizes grid reliability, utility planning, and allocation.

 

Key Points

Official pause on new large-scale crypto mining to protect N.B. Power grid capacity, stability, and reliable supply.

✅ Cabinet order halts new large-scale crypto load requests

✅ Review targets grid reliability, planning, and capacity

✅ Non-crypto industrial customers exempt from prolonged pause

 

N.B. Power says a freeze on servicing new, large-scale industrial customers in the province remains in place over concerns that the cryptocurrency sector's heavy electricity use could be more than the utility can handle.

The Higgs government quietly endorsed the moratorium in a cabinet order in March 2022 and ordered a review of how the sector might affect the reliable electricity supply and broader electricity future planning in the province.

The cabinet order, filed with the Energy and Utilities Board, said N.B. Power had "policy, technical and operational concerns about [its] capacity to service the anticipated additional load demand" from energy-intensive customers such as crypto mines.

It said the utility had received "several new large-scale, short-notice service requests" to supply electricity to crypto mining companies that could put "significant pressure" on the existing electricity supply.

The order, signed by Premier Blaine Higgs, said non-crypto companies shouldn't be subject to the pause for any longer than required for the review, amid shifts in regional plans like the Atlantic Loop that are altering timelines. Ws.

The freeze was ordered months after Taal Distributed Information Technologies Inc. announced plans to establish a 50-megawatt bitcoin mining operation and transaction processing facility in Grand Falls.

A town official said this week that the deal never went ahead.

24 hours a day
The Taal facility would have joined a 70-megawatt bitcoin mine in Grand Falls operated by Hive Blockchain Technologies.

Hive's Bitcoin mine comprises four large warehouses containing thousands of computers running 24 hours a day to earn cryptocurrency units.

The combined annual electricity consumption of the two mines would exceed what could be produced by the small modular nuclear reactor being designed by ARC Clean Energy Canada of Saint John, even as Nova Scotia advances efforts to harness the Bay of Fundy's powerful tides for clean power.

Put another way, the two mines would gobble up more than three months' electricity from N.B. Power's coal-fired Belledune generating station under current operations.

 

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