Toronto financial district keeps ticking despite power outage

By Reuters


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An electrical equipment failure knocked out power recently in a handful of skyscrapers in Canada's financial center, leaving as many as 100,000 without electricity.

The downtown Toronto buildings affected included the tower that houses the offices of the Toronto Stock Exchange as well as First Canadian Place and the RBC Center, a Toronto Hydro spokesperson said.

Carolyn Quick, a spokeswoman for TMX Group Inc., which operates the Toronto Stock Exchange and the junior Venture market, said trading was uninterrupted.

"The Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange continued to operate during the power outage as they are on separate power systems, as well as there is fully redundant system in place."

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IEC reaches settlement on Palestinian electricity debt

IEC-PETL Electricity Agreement streamlines grid management, debt settlement, and bank guarantees, shifting power supply, transmission, and distribution to PETL via IEC-built sub-stations, bolstering energy cooperation, utility billing, and payment assurance in PA areas.

 

Key Points

A 15-year deal transferring PA grid operations to PETL, settling legacy debt, and securing payments with bank guarantees.

✅ NIS 915 million repaid in 48 installments.

✅ PETL assumes distribution, O&M, and sub-station ownership.

✅ 15-year, NIS 2.8b per year supply and services contract.

 

The Palestinian Authority will pay Israel Electric NIS 915 million and take over management of its grid through Palestinian electricity supplier PETL.

The Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) (TASE: ELEC.B22) and Palestinian electricity supplier PETL have signed a draft commercial agreement under which the Palestinian Authority's (PA) debt of almost NIS 1 billion will be repaid. The agreement also transfers actual management of the supply of electricity to Palestinian customers from IEC to the Palestinian electricity authority, enabling consideration of distributed solutions such as a virtual power plant program in future planning.

Up until now, the IEC was unable to actually collect debts for electricity from Palestinian customers, because the connection with them was through the PA. Responsibility for collection will now be exclusively in Palestinian hands, with the PA providing hundreds of millions of shekels in bank guarantees for future debts. The agreement, which is valid for 15 years, amounts to an estimated NIS 2.8 billion a year, as of now.

IEC will sell electricity and related services to PETL through four high-tension sub-stations built by IEC for PETL and through high and low-tension connection points, similar to large interconnector projects like the Lake Erie Connector, for the purpose of distribution and supply of the electricity by PETL or an entity on its behalf to consumers in PA territory. PETL will have sole operational and maintenance responsibility for distribution and supply and ownership of the four sub-stations.

 

NIS 915 million in 48 payments

According to the IEC announcement, the settlement was reached following negotiations following the signing of an agreement in principle in September 2016 by the minister of finance, the government coordinator of activities in the territories, and the Palestinian minister for civilian affairs. The parties reached commercial understandings yesterday that made possible today's signing of the first commercial document of its kind regulating commercial relations - the sales of electricity - between the parties. The agreement will go into effect after it is approved by the IEC board of directors, the Public Utilities Authority (electricity), reflecting regulatory oversight akin to Ontario industrial electricity pricing consultations, and the IDF Chief Electrical Staff Officer. Representatives of IEC, the Ministry of Finance, the Public Utilities Authority (electricity), the government coordinator of activities in the territories, the civilian authority, the PA government, and PETL took part in the negotiations.

The agreement also settles the PA's historical debt to IEC. The PA will begin payment of NIS 915 million in debt for consumption of electricity before September 2016 to IEC Jerusalem District Ltd. in 48 equal installments after the final signing, as stipulated in the agreement in principle signed by the Israeli government and the PA on September 13, 2016.

The PA's debt for electricity amounted to almost NIS 2 billion in 2016. The initial spadework for the current debt settlement was accomplished in that year, after the parties reached understandings on writing off NIS 500 million of the Palestinian debt. The PA paid NIS 600 million in October 2016, and the remainder will be paid now.

It was also reported that an arrangement of securities and guarantees to ensure payment to IEC under the agreement had been settled, including the past debt. IEC will obtain a bank guarantee and a PA guarantee, in addition to the existing collection mechanisms at the company's disposal.

Minister of Finance Moshe Kahlon said, "Signing the commercial agreement is a historic step completing the agreement signed by the governments in September 2016. Strengthening economic cooperation between Israel and the PA is above all an Israeli security interest. The agreement will ensure future payments to the IEC and reinforce its financial position. I congratulate the negotiating teams for the completion of their task."

Minister of National Infrastructure, Energy, and Water Resources Dr. Yuval Steinitz said, "In my meeting last year with Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah in Jenin, we agreed that it was necessary to settle the debt and formalize relations between IEC and the PA. The settlement signed today is a breakthrough, both in the measures for payment of the Palestinian debt to IEC and Israel and in arranging future relations to prevent more debts from emerging in the future. With the signing of the agreement, we will be able to make progress with the Palestinians in developing a modern electrical grid, aligning with regional initiatives like the Cyprus electricity highway, according to the model of the sub-station we inaugurated in Jenin."

IEC chairperson Yiftah Ron Tal said, "This is a historic event. In this agreement, IEC is correcting for the first time a historical distortion of accumulated debt without guarantees, ability to collect it, or control over the amount of debt. This anchor agreement not only constitutes an unprecedented financial achievement; it also constitutes an important milestone in regulating electricity commercial relations between the Israeli and Palestinian electric companies, comparable to cross-border efforts such as the Ireland-France interconnector in Europe."

 

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Energy UK - Switching surge continues

UK Energy Switching Surge sees 600,000 customers change suppliers in October, driven by competition, the Energy Switch Guarantee, and better tariffs, with Electralink's DTN supporting customer switching and Ofgem oversight.

 

Key Points

A rise in UK customers switching electricity suppliers in October, driven by competition and the Energy Switch Guarantee.

✅ 600,000 switches recorded in October

✅ 32% moved to small and mid-tier suppliers

✅ Energy Switch Guarantee assures simple, safe transfers

 

More than 600,000 customers took steps to save on their energy bills this winter by switching electricity provider in October, as forecasts such as a 16% bill decrease in April offer further encouragement, the latest figures from Energy UK reveal.

A third (32 per cent) of those changing providers in October moved to small and mid-tier suppliers.

Regional markets have seen changes too, including Irish electricity price increases that highlight wider cost pressures.

With recent research showing that that nine in ten energy switchers were happy with the process of changing suppliers and with the reassurance provided by the Energy Switch Guarantee - a series of commitments ensuring switches are simple, speedy and safe - and amid MPs proposing price restrictions to protect consumers, more and more customers are now confident when looking to move.

Lawrence Slade, chief executive of Energy UK said: 'Switching continues to surge with over 600,000 customers changing supplier to find a better deal last month. Many more will have made savings by checking they are on the best deal with their current supplier. It only takes a few minutes to do this and with over 55 suppliers across the market, there's never been more competition or choice.'

Around 75 per cent of the market are signatories of the Guarantee. This includes: British Gas, Bulb Energy, E.ON, EDF Energy, First Utility, Flow Energy, npower, Octopus Energy, Pure Planet, Sainsbury's Energy, Scottish Power, So Energy and Tonik Energy.

The switching data is supplied by Electralink who provides a secure service to transfer data between the electricity market participants. The company operates the Data Transfer Network (DTN) which underpins customer switching, meter interoperability and other business processes critical to a competitive electricity market, where knowing where your electricity comes from can support informed choices.

The data referenced in these reports is since our collection of data only and is for electricity only.

These figures do not include internal electricity switching, and statistics on this from the larger suppliers and on Standard Variable Tariffs can be viewed on the Ofgem website, while ministers consider ending the gas-electricity price link to reduce bills.

 

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Power Outage Disrupts Morning Routine for Thousands in London

London, Ontario Power Outage disrupts the electricity grid, causing a citywide blackout, stalled commuters, dark traffic signals, and closed businesses, as London Hydro crews race restoration after a transformer malfunction and infrastructure failures.

 

Key Points

A blackout caused by a transformer malfunction, disrupting commuters, businesses, and traffic across London, Ontario.

✅ Traffic signals dark; delays and congestion citywide

✅ London Hydro crews repairing malfunctioning transformer

✅ Businesses closed; transit routes delayed and rerouted

 

A widespread power outage early Monday morning left thousands of residents in London, Ontario, without electricity, causing significant disruption for commuters and businesses at the start of the workday. The outage, which affected several neighborhoods across the city, lasted for hours, creating a chaotic morning as residents scrambled to adjust to the unexpected interruption.

The Outage Strikes

The power failure was first reported at approximately 6:30 a.m., catching many off guard as they began their day. The affected areas included several busy neighborhoods, with power lines down and substations impacted, issues that windstorms often exacerbate for utilities. Early reports indicated that the outage was caused by a combination of issues, including technical failures and possible equipment malfunctions. London Hydro, the city's primary electricity provider, responded quickly to the situation, assuring residents that crews were dispatched to restore power as soon as possible.

"Crews are on site and working hard to restore power to those affected," a spokesperson for London Hydro said. "We understand the frustration this causes and are doing everything we can to get the power back on as soon as possible."

Impact on Commuters and Businesses

The power outage had an immediate impact on the morning commute. Traffic lights across the affected areas were down, leading to delays and rush-hour disruptions at major intersections. Drivers were forced to navigate through intersections without traffic control, creating an additional layer of complexity for those trying to get to work or school.

Public transit was also affected, with some bus routes delayed due to the power loss at key transit stations. The situation added further stress to commuters already dealing with the challenges of a typical Monday morning rush.

Businesses in the affected neighborhoods faced a variety of challenges. Some were forced to close early or delay their opening hours due to a lack of electricity. Many shops and offices struggled with limited access to the internet and phone lines, which hindered their ability to process orders and serve customers. Local coffee shops, often a go-to for busy workers, were also unable to operate their coffee machines or provide basic services, forcing customers to go without their usual morning caffeine fix.

"For a lot of people, it's their first stop in the morning," said one local business owner. "It’s frustrating because we rely on power to function, and with no warning, we had to turn away customers."

The Response

As the hours ticked by, residents were left wondering when the power would return. London Hydro’s social media accounts were filled with updates, keeping residents informed about the restoration efforts, a practice echoed when BC Hydro crews responded during an atypical storm. The utility company urged those who were experiencing issues to report them online to help prioritize repair efforts.

"We are aware that many people are affected, and our teams are working tirelessly to restore power," the utility posted on Twitter. "Please stay safe, and we thank you for your patience."

Throughout the morning, the power was gradually restored to different areas of the city. However, some parts remained without electricity well into the afternoon, a situation reminiscent of extended outages that test city resilience. London Hydro confirmed that the outage was caused by a malfunctioning transformer, and the necessary repairs would take time to complete.

Long-Term Effects and Community Concerns

While the immediate effects of the outage were felt most acutely during the morning hours, some residents expressed concern about the potential long-term effects. The city’s reliance on a stable electricity grid became a focal point of discussion, with many wondering if similar outages could occur in the future, as seen in the North Seattle outage earlier this year.

"I understand that things break, but it’s frustrating that it took so long for power to come back," said a London resident. "This isn’t the first time something like this has happened, and it makes me wonder about the reliability of our infrastructure."

City officials responded by reassuring residents that efforts are underway to upgrade the city's infrastructure to prevent such outages from happening in the future. A report released by London Hydro highlighted ongoing investments in upgrading transformers and other key components of the city's power grid. Province-wide, Hydro One restored power to more than 277,000 customers after damaging storms, underscoring the scale of upgrades needed. Despite these efforts, however, experts warn that older infrastructure in some areas may still be vulnerable to failure, especially during extreme weather events or other unforeseen circumstances.

The morning outage serves as a reminder of how reliant modern cities are on stable electricity networks. While the response from London Hydro was swift and effective in restoring power, it’s clear that these types of events can cause significant disruptions to daily life. As the city moves forward, many are calling for increased investment in infrastructure and proactive measures to prevent future outages, especially after Toronto outages persisted following a spring storm in the region.

In the meantime, Londoners have adapted, finding ways to go about their day as best they can. For some, it’s a reminder of the importance of preparedness in an increasingly unpredictable world. Whether it’s an extra flashlight or a backup power source, residents are learning to expect the unexpected and be ready for whatever the next workday might bring.

 

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Iran Says Deals to Rehabilitate, Develop Iraq Power Grid Finalized

Iran-Iraq Power Grid Deals reinforce electricity and natural gas ties, upgrading transmission in Karbala and Najaf, repairing transformers, easing sanctions bottlenecks, and weighing GCC interconnection to diversify supply and reduce distribution losses across Iraq.

 

Key Points

Agreements to rehabilitate Iraq's grid, cut losses, and secure power via Iranian gas, electricity, and upgrades.

✅ Reduce distribution losses in Karbala and Najaf

✅ Repair and replace damaged distribution transformers

✅ Coordinate payments to TAVANIR amid US sanctions

 

Iran and Iraq have finalized two deals to rehabilitate and develop the power grid of Iraq, while Iran is upgrading thermal plants to combined cycle at home to save energy, IRNA cited the Iranian Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian.

Ardakanian met his Iraqi counterpart Majid Mahdi Hantoush in Tehran on Tuesday evening for talks on further energy cooperation on the sidelines of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s trip to the Islamic Republic on his first foreign visit.

“It was decided that the contracts related to reducing losses on the electricity distribution network in the provinces of Karbala and Najaf, as well as the contract for repairing Iraq’s distribution transformers would be finalized and signed,” the Iranian minister said.

Iraq relies on Iran for natural gas that generates as much as 45 percent of its electricity, with Iran supplying 40% of Iraq’s power according to sector reports. Iran transmits another 1,200 MW directly, and has regional power hub plans as well, making itself an indispensable energy source for its Arab neighbor, but the United States is trying to pry Baghdad away from Tehran’s orbit.

The US has been enlisting its companies and allies such as Saudi Arabia to replace Iran as Iraq’s source of energy.

Iran’s money from exports of gas and electricity has accumulated in bank accounts in Iraq, because US sanctions are preventing Tehran from repatriating it.

In January, an official said the sanctions were giving Iran a run for five billion dollars, “sedimenting” at the Central Bank of Iraq, because Tehran could not access it.

Ardakanian said the issue was brought up in the discussions on Tuesday and it was agreed that “the payment of part of TAVANIR (Iran Power Generation and Transmission Company)’s claims will start from the end of July”.

The US administration is pushing for a deal between Washington, Baghdad and six Persian Gulf states to connect Iraq’s nationwide power grid to that of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, while Uzbekistan looks to export power to Afghanistan as regional linkages expand.

The US State Department said in a statement last Thursday that the six countries that make up the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the UAE — had affirmed their shared support for the project to supply electricity to Iraq.

Iraq needs more than 23,000 MW of electricity to meet its domestic demand, and is exploring nuclear power plans to tackle shortages, but years of war following the 2003 US invasion have left its power infrastructure in tatters and a deficit of some 7,000 MW.

In the past, officials in Baghdad have said there is no easy substitute to imports from Iran because it will take years to adequately build up Iraq’s energy infrastructure, and meeting summer electricity needs remains a persistent challenge.

They have said American demand acknowledges neither Iraq’s energy needs nor the complex relations between Baghdad and Tehran.

In addition to natural gas and electricity, Iraq imports a wide range of goods from Iran including food, agricultural products, home appliances, and air conditioners.

On Tuesday, the Iraqi prime minister said during a joint news conference with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani that the purpose of his trip to Tehran was to strengthen historical ties between the two countries, especially in light of the challenges they faced as a result of the coronavirus outbreak and the fall of oil prices.

“In the face of such challenges, we need coordination between the two countries in a way that serves the interests of Iran and Iraq.”

Both Iran and Iraq, Kadhimi said, suffer from economic problems, adding the two countries need comprehensive and inclusive cooperation to overcome them.

Kadhimi said Iran-Iraq relations are not merely due to the geographical location of the two countries and their 1,450-km border, adding the ties are based on religion and culture and rooted in history.

“I am reiterating to my brothers in the Islamic Republic of Iran that the Iraqi nation is eager to have excellent relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of the two countries.”

Kadhimi said Iran and Iraq fought against terrorism and Takfiri groups together, and the Islamic Republic of Iran was one of the first countries to stand by Iraq.

“We will not forget this. That is why Iraq has stood with Iran to help it overcome economic challenges and turned to a big market for trade with Iran,” he said.

“We seek stability in Iraq and our philosophy and view of Iran is that we consider Iran a stable, strong, prosperous and progressive country, and this fact is in the interest of Iraq and the territorial integrity of the region,” he added.

According to Kadhimi, the two sides discussed implementing agreements between them, including connecting their railway through Khorramshahr in Iran and Basra in Iraq, adding he was very confident the agreements would be implemented soon.

Iraq’s delegation included the ministers of foreign affairs, finance, health, and planning, as well as Kadhimi’s national security adviser, some of whom also met their Iranian counterparts.

Last year, Iran’s exports to Iraq amounted to nearly $9 billion, IRNA reported. It said the two nations will discuss increasing that amount to $20 billion.

“The two governments’ will is to expand bilateral trade to $20 billion,” Rouhani said after an hour-long meeting with the Iraqi prime minister.

 

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UK Renewable Energy Auction: Boost for Wind and Tidal Power

UK Wind and Tidal Power Auction signals strong CfD support for offshore wind, tidal stream projects, investor certainty, and clean electricity, accelerating the net-zero transition, boosting jobs, and strengthening UK energy security and grid integration.

 

Key Points

A CfD auction awarding contracts for wind and tidal projects to scale clean power and advance UK net-zero.

✅ Offshore wind dominates CfD awards

✅ Tidal stream gains predictable, reliable capacity

✅ Jobs, investment, and grid integration accelerate

 

In a significant development for the UK’s renewable energy sector, the latest auction for renewable energy contracts has underscored a transformative shift towards wind and tidal power. As reported by The Guardian, the auction results reveal a strong commitment to expanding these technologies, with new contracts adding 10 GW to the UK grid, marking a pivotal moment in the UK’s transition to cleaner energy sources.

The Auction’s Impact

The renewable energy auction, which took place recently, has allocated contracts for a substantial increase in wind and tidal power projects. This auction, part of the UK’s Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme, is designed to support the development of low-carbon energy technologies by providing financial certainty to investors. By offering fixed prices for the electricity generated by these projects, the CfD scheme aims to stimulate investment and accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources.

The latest results are particularly notable for the significant share of contracts awarded to offshore wind farms and tidal power projects, highlighting how offshore wind is powering up the UK as policy and investment priorities continue to shift. This marks a shift from previous auctions, where solar power and onshore wind were the dominant technologies. The move towards supporting offshore wind and tidal power reflects the UK’s strategic focus on harnessing its abundant natural resources to drive the transition to a low-carbon energy system.

Offshore Wind Power: A Major Contributor

Offshore wind power has emerged as a major player in the UK’s renewable energy landscape, within a global market projected to become a $1 trillion business over the coming decades. The recent auction results highlight the continued growth and investment in this sector.

The UK has been a global leader in offshore wind development, with several large-scale projects already operational and more in the pipeline. The auction has further cemented this position, underscoring what the U.S. can learn from the U.K. in scaling offshore wind capacity, with new projects set to contribute significantly to the country’s renewable energy capacity. These projects are expected to deliver substantial amounts of clean electricity, supporting the UK’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Tidal Power: An Emerging Frontier

Tidal power, although less developed compared to wind and solar, is gaining momentum as a promising renewable energy source, with companies harnessing oceans and rivers to demonstrate practical potential. The auction results have allocated contracts to several tidal power projects, signaling growing recognition of the potential of this technology.

Tidal power harnesses the energy from tidal movements and currents, which are highly predictable and consistent, and a market outlook for wave and tidal energy points to emerging growth drivers and investment. This makes it a reliable complement to intermittent sources like wind and solar power. The inclusion of tidal power projects in the auction reflects the UK’s commitment to diversifying its renewable energy portfolio and exploring all available options for achieving energy security and sustainability.

Economic and Environmental Benefits

The expansion of wind and tidal power projects through the recent auction offers numerous economic and environmental benefits. From an economic perspective, these projects are expected to create thousands of jobs in construction, maintenance, and manufacturing. They also stimulate investment in local economies and support the growth of the green technology sector.

Environmentally, the increased deployment of wind and tidal power contributes to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Offshore wind farms and tidal power projects produce clean electricity with minimal environmental impact, helping to mitigate the effects of climate change and improve air quality.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Despite the positive outcomes of the auction, there are challenges to address. Offshore wind farms and tidal power projects require substantial upfront investment and face technical and logistical challenges. Issues such as grid integration, environmental impact assessments, and supply chain constraints need to be carefully managed to ensure the successful deployment of these projects.

Looking ahead, the UK’s renewable energy strategy will continue to evolve as new technologies and innovations emerge, and growth despite Covid-19 underscores sector resilience. The success of the latest auction demonstrates the growing confidence in wind and tidal power and sets the stage for further advancements in renewable energy.

The UK government’s commitment to supporting these technologies through initiatives like the CfD scheme is crucial for achieving long-term energy and climate goals. As the country progresses towards its net-zero target, the continued expansion of wind and tidal power will play a key role in shaping a sustainable and resilient energy future.

Conclusion

The latest renewable energy auction represents a significant milestone in the UK’s transition to a low-carbon energy system. By awarding contracts to wind and tidal power projects, the auction underscores the country’s commitment to harnessing diverse and reliable sources of renewable energy. The expansion of offshore wind and the emerging role of tidal power highlight the UK’s strategic approach to achieving energy security, reducing emissions, and driving economic growth. As the renewable energy sector continues to evolve, the UK remains at the forefront of global efforts to build a sustainable and clean energy future.

 

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Europe's Worst Energy Nightmare Is Becoming Reality

European Energy Crisis shocks markets as Russia slashes gas via Nord Stream, spiking prices and triggering rationing, LNG imports, storage shortfalls, and emergency measures to secure energy security before a harsh winter.

 

Key Points

Europe-wide gas shock from reduced Russian flows drives price spikes, rationing risk, LNG reliance, and emergency action.

✅ Nord Stream cuts deepen supply insecurity and storage gaps

✅ LNG imports rise but terminal capacity and shipping are tight

✅ Policy tools: rationing, subsidies, demand response, coal restarts

 

As Russian gas cutoffs upend European energy security, the continent is struggling to cope with what experts say is one of its worst-ever energy crises—and it could still get much worse. 

For months, European leaders have been haunted by the prospect of losing Russia’s natural gas supply, which accounts for some 40 percent of European imports and has been a crucial energy lifeline for the continent. That nightmare is now becoming a painful reality as Moscow slashes its flows in retaliation for Europe’s support for Ukraine, dramatically increasing energy prices and forcing many countries to resort to emergency plans, including emergency measures to limit electricity prices in some cases, and as backup energy suppliers such as Norway and North Africa are failing to step up.

“This is the most extreme energy crisis that has ever occurred in Europe,” said Alex Munton, an expert on global gas markets at Rapidan Energy Group, a consultancy. “Europe [is] looking at the very real prospect of not having sufficient gas when it’s most needed, which is during the coldest part of the year.”

“Prices have shot through the roof,” added Munton, who noted that European natural gas prices—nearly $50 per MMBTu—have eclipsed U.S. price rises by nearly tenfold, and that rolling back electricity prices is tougher than it appears in the current market. “That is an extraordinarily high price to be paying for natural gas, and really there is no immediate way out from here.” 

Many officials and energy experts worry that the crisis will only deepen after Nord Stream 1, the largest gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, is taken down for scheduled maintenance this week. Although the pipeline is supposed to be under repair for only 10 days, the Kremlin’s history of energy blackmail and weaponization has stoked fears that Moscow won’t turn it back on—leaving heavily reliant European countries in the lurch. (Russia’s second pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 2, was killed in February as Russian President Vladimir Putin prepared to invade Ukraine, leaving Nord Stream 1 as the biggest direct gas link between Russia and Europe’s biggest economy.)

“Everything is possible. Everything can happen,” German economy minister Robert Habeck told Deutschlandfunk on Saturday. “It could be that the gas flows again, maybe more than before. It can also be the case that nothing comes.”

That would spell trouble for the upcoming winter, when demand for energy surges and having sufficient natural gas is necessary for heating. European countries typically rely on the summer months to refill their gas storage facilities. And at a time of war, when the continent’s future gas supply is uncertain, having that energy cushion is especially crucial.

If Russia’s prolonged disruptions continue, experts warn of a difficult winter: one of potential rationing, industrial shutdowns, and even massive economic dislocation. British officials, who just a few months ago warned of soaring power bills for consumers, are now warning of even worse, despite a brief fall to pre-Ukraine war levels in gas prices earlier in the year.

Europe could face a “winter of discontent,” said Helima Croft, a managing director at RBC Capital Markets. “Rationing, industrial shut-ins—all of that is looming.”

Unrest has already been brewing, with strikes erupting across the continent as households struggle under the pressures of spiraling costs of living and inflationary pressures. Some of this discontent has also had knock-on effects in the energy market. In Norway, the European Union’s biggest supplier of natural gas after Russia, mass strikes in the oil and gas industries last week forced companies to shutter production, sending further shockwaves throughout Europe.

European countries are at risk of descending into “very, very strong conflict and strife because there is no energy,” Frans Timmermans, the vice president of the European Commission, told the Guardian. “Putin is using all the means he has to create strife in our societies, so we have to brace ourselves for a very difficult period.”

The pain of the crisis, however, is perhaps being felt most clearly in Germany, which has been forced to turn to a number of energy-saving measures, including rationing heated water and closing swimming pools. To cope with the crunch, Berlin has already entered the second phase of its three-stage emergency gas plan; last week, it also moved to bail out its energy giants amid German utility troubles that have been financially slammed by Russian cutoffs. 

But it’s not just Germany. “This is happening all across Europe,” said Olga Khakova, an expert on European energy security at the Atlantic Council, who noted that France has also announced plans to nationalize the EDF power company as it buckles under mounting economic losses, and the EU outlines gas price cap strategies to temper volatility. “The challenging part is how much can these governments provide in support to their energy consumers, to these companies? And what is that breaking point?”

The situation has also complicated many countries’ climate goals, even as some call it a wake-up call to ditch fossil fuels for Europe. In late June, Germany, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands announced they would restart old coal power plants as they grapple with shrinking supplies. 

The potential outcomes that European nations are grappling with reveal how this crisis is occurring on a scale that has only been seen in times of war, Munton said. In the worst-case scenario, “we’re talking about rationing gas supplies, and this is not something that Europe has had to contend with in any other time than the wartime,” he said. “That’s essentially where things have got to now. This is an energy war.”

They also underscore the long and painful battle that Europe will continue to face in weaning itself off Russian gas. Despite the continent’s eagerness to leave Moscow’s supply behind, experts say Europe will likely remain trapped in this spiraling crisis until it can develop the infrastructure for greater energy independence—and that could take years. U.S. gas, shipped by tanker, is one option, but that requires new terminals to receive the gas and U.S. energy impacts remain a factor for policymakers. New pipelines take even longer to build—and there isn’t a surfeit of eligible suppliers.

Until then, European leaders will continue to scramble to secure enough supplies—and can only hope for mild weather. The “worst-case scenario is people having to choose between eating and heating come winter,” Croft said. 

 

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