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2040 Energy Outlook projects a shifting energy mix as renewables scale, EV adoption accelerates, and IEA forecasts plateauing oil demand alongside rising natural gas, highlighting policy, efficiency, and decarbonization trends that shape global consumption.

Key Points

A data-driven view of future energy mix, covering renewables, fossil fuels, EVs, oil demand, and policy impacts.

✅ Renewables reach 16-30% by 2040, higher with strong policy support.

✅ Fossil fuels remain dominant, with oil flat and natural gas rising.

✅ EV share surges, cutting oil use; efficiency curbs demand growth.

Which is more plausible: flying taxis, wind turbine arrays stretching miles into the ocean, and a solar roof on every house--or a scorched-earth, flooded post-Apocalyptic world? 

We have no way of peeking into the future, but we can certainly imagine it. There is plenty of information about where the world is headed and regardless of how reliable this information is—or isn’t—we never stop wondering. Will the energy world of 20 years from now be better or worse than the world we live in now? 

The answer may very well lie in the observable trends.

A Growing Population

The global population is growing, and it will continue to grow in the next two decades. This will drive a steady growth in energy demand, at about 1 percent per year, according to the International Energy Agency.

This modest rate of growth is good news for all who are concerned about the future of the planet. Parts of the world are trying to reduce their energy consumption, and this should have a positive effect on the carbon footprint of humanity. The energy thirst of most parts of the world will continue growing, however, hence the overall growth.

The world’s population is currently growing at a rate of a little over 1 percent annually. This rate of growth has been slowing since its peak in the 1960s and forecasts suggest that it will continue to slow. Growth in energy demand, on the other hand, may at some point stop moving in tune with population growth trends as affluence in some parts of the world grows. The richer people get, the more energy they need. So, to the big question: where will this energy come from?

The Rise of Renewables

For all the headline space they have been claiming, it may come as a disappointing surprise to many that renewable energy, excluding hydropower, to date accounts for just 14 percent of the global primary energy mix. 

Certainly, adoption of solar and wind energy has been growing in leaps and bounds, with their global share doubling in five years in many markets, but unless governments around the world commit a lot more money and effort to renewable energy, by 2040, solar and wind’s share in the energy mix will still only rise to about 16 to 17 percent. That’s according to the only comprehensive report on the future of energy that collates data from all the leading energy authorities in the world, by non-profit Resources for the Future.

The growth in renewables adoption, however, would be a lot more impressive if governments do make serious commitments. Under that scenario, the share of renewables will double to over 30 percent by 2040, echoing milestones like over 30% of global electricity reached recently: that’s the median rate of all authoritative forecasts. Amongst them, the adoption rates of renewables vary between 15 percent and 61 percent by 2040.

Even the most bullish of the forecasts on renewables is still far below the 100-percent renewable future many would like to fantasize about, although BNEF’s 50% by 2050 outlook points to what could be possible in the power sector. 

But in 2040, most of the world’s energy will still come from fossil fuels.

EV Energy

Here, forecasters are more optimistic. Again, there is a wide variation between forecasts, but in each and every one of them the share of electric vehicles on the world’s roads in 2040 is a lot higher than the meagre 1 percent of the global car fleet EVs constitute today.
Related: Gas Prices Languish As Storage Falls To Near-Record Lows

Government policy will be the key, as U.S. progress toward 30% wind and solar shows how policy steers the power mix that EVs ultimately depend on. Bans of internal combustion engines will go a long way toward boosting EV adoption, which is why some forecasters expect electric cars to come to account for more than 50 percent of cars on the road in 2040. Others, however, are more guarded in their forecasts, seeing their share of the global fleet at between 16 percent and a little over 40 percent.

Many pin their hopes for a less emission-intensive future on electric cars. Indeed, as the number of EVs rises, they displace ICE vehicles and, respectively, the emission-causing oil that fuels for ICE cars are made from.  It should be a no brainer that the more EVs we drive, the less emissions we produce. Unfortunately, this is not necessarily the case: China is the world’s biggest EV market, and its solar PV expansion has been rapid, it has the most EVs—including passenger cars and buses—but it is also one of the biggest emitters.

Still, by 2040, if the more optimistic forecasts come true, the world will be consuming less oil than it is consuming now: anywhere from 1.2 million bpd to 20 million bpd less, the latter case envisaging an all-electric global fleet in 2040. 

This Ain’t Your Daddy’s Oil

No, it ain’t. It’s your grandchildren’s oil, for good or for bad. The vision of an oil-free world where renewable power is both abundant and cheap enough to replace all the ways in which crude oil and natural gas are used will in 2040 still be just that--a vision, with practical U.S. grid constraints underscoring the challenges. Even the most optimistic energy scenarios for two decades from now see them as the dominant source of energy, with forecasts ranging between 60 percent and 79 percent. While these extremes are both below the over-80 percent share fossil fuels have in the world’s energy mix, they are well above 50 percent, and in the U.S. renewables are projected to reach about one-fourth of electricity soon, even as fossil fuels remain foundational.

Still, there is good news. Fuel efficiency alone will reduce oil demand significantly by 2040. In fact, according to the IEA, demand will plateau at a little over 100 million bpd by the mid-2030s. Combined with the influx of EVs many expect, the world of 20 years from now may indeed be consuming a lot less oil than the world of today. It will, however, likely consume a lot more natural gas. There is simply no way around fossil fuels, not yet. Unless a miracle of politics happens (complete with a ripple effect that will cost millions of people their jobs) in 2040 we will be as dependent on oil and gas as we are but we will hopefully breathe cleaner air.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Germany 2030 Electricity Demand Forecast projects 658 TWh, driven by e-mobility, heat pumps, and green hydrogen. BMWi and BDEW see higher renewables, onshore wind, photovoltaics, and faster grid expansion to meet climate targets.

Key Points

A BMWi outlook to 658 TWh by 2030, led by e-mobility, plus demand from heat pumps, green hydrogen, and industry.

✅ Transport adds ~70 TWh; cars take 44 TWh by 2030

✅ Heat pumps add 35 TWh; green hydrogen needs ~20 TWh

✅ BDEW urges 70% renewables and faster grid expansion

Gross electricity consumption in Germany will increase from 595 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2018 to 658 TWh in 2030. That is an increase of eleven percent. This emerges from the detailed analysis of the development of electricity demand that the Federal Ministry of Economics (BMWi) published on Tuesday. The main driver of the increase is therefore the transport sector. According to the paper, increased electric mobility in particular contributes 68 TWh to the increase, in line with rising EV power demand trends across markets. Around 44 TWh of this should be for cars, 7 TWh for light commercial vehicles and 17 TWh for heavy trucks. If the electricity consumption for buses and two-wheelers is added, this results in electricity consumption for e-mobility of around 70 TWh.

The number of purely battery-powered vehicles is increasing according to the investigation by the BMWi to 16 million by 2030, reflecting the global electric car market momentum, plus 2.2 million plug-in hybrids. In 2018 there were only around 100,000 electric cars, the associated electricity consumption was an estimated 0.3 TWh, and plug-in mileage in 2021 highlighted the rapid uptake elsewhere. For heat pumps, the researchers predict an increase in demand by 35 TWh to around 42 TWh. They estimate the electricity consumption for the production of around 12.5 TWh of green hydrogen in 2030 to be just under 20 TWh. The demand at battery factories and data centers will increase by 13 TWh compared to 2018 by this point in time. In the data centers, there is no higher consumption due to more efficient hardware despite advancing digitization.

The updated figures are based on ongoing scenario calculations by Prognos, in which the market researchers took into account the goals of the Climate Protection Act for 2030 and the wider European electrification push for decarbonization. In the preliminary estimate presented by Federal Economics Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) in July, a range of 645 to 665 TWh was determined for gross electricity consumption in 2030. Previously, Altmaier officially said that electricity demand in this country would remain constant for the next ten years. In June, Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) called for an expanded forecast that would have to include trends in e-mobility adoption within a decade and the Internet of Things, for example.

Higher electricity demand
The Federal Association of Energy and Water Management (BDEW) is assuming an even higher electricity demand of around 700 TWh in nine years. In any case, a higher share of renewable energies in electricity generation of 70 percent by 2030 is necessary in order to be able to achieve the climate targets and to address electricity price volatility risks. The expansion paths urgently need to be increased and obstacles removed. This could mean around 100 gigawatts (GW) for onshore wind turbines, 11 GW for biomass and at least 150 GW for photovoltaics by 2030. Faster network expansion and renovation will also become even more urgent, as electric cars challenge grids in many regions.
 

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Texas ERCOT Power Grid leads U.S. wind generation yet faces isolated interconnection, FERC exemption, and high industrial energy use, with distinct electricity and natural gas prices managed by a single balancing authority.

Key Points

The state-run interconnection that balances Texas electricity, isolated from FERC oversight and other U.S. grids.

✅ Largest U.S. wind power producer, high industrial demand

✅ Operates one balancing authority, independent interconnection

✅ Pays lower electricity, higher natural gas vs national average

For nearly two decades, the Lone Star State has generated more wind-sourced electricity than any other state in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration, or EIA.

In 2022, EIA reported Texas produced more electricity than any other state and generated twice as much as second-place Florida.

However, Texas also leads the country in another category. According to EIA, Texas is the largest energy-consuming state in the nation across all sectors with more than half of the state’s energy being used by the industrial sector.

As of May 2023, Texas residents paid 43% more for natural gas and around 10% less for electricity compared to the national average, according to EIA, and in competitive areas shopping for electricity is getting cheaper as well. Commercial and industrial sectors on average for the same month paid 25% less for electricity compared to the national average.

U.S. electric system compared to Texas
The U.S. electric system is essentially split into three regions called interconnections and are managed by a total of 74 entities called balancing authorities that ensure that power supply and demand are balanced throughout the region to prevent the possibility of blackouts, according to EIA.

The three regions (Interconnections):

Eastern Interconnection: Covers all U.S. states east of the Rocky Mountains, a portion of northern Texas, and consists of 36 balancing authorities.
Western Interconnection: Covers all U.S. states west of the Rockies and consists of 37 balancing authorities.
ERCOT: Covers the majority of Texas and consists of one balancing authority (itself).

During the 2021 winter storm, Texas electric cooperatives were credited with helping maintain service in many communities.

“ERCOT is unique in that the balancing authority, interconnection, and the regional transmission organization are all the same entity and physical system,” according to EIA, a structure often discussed in analyses of Texas power grid challenges today.

With this being the case, Texas is the only state in the U.S. that balances itself, the only state that is not subject to the jurisdiction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, and the only state that is not synchronously interconnected to the grid in the rest of the United States in the event of tight grid conditions, highlighting ongoing discussions about improving Texas grid reliability before peak seasons, according to EIA.

Every other state in the U.S. is connected to a web of multiple balancing authorities that contribute to ensuring power supply and demand are met.

California, for example, was the fourth largest electricity producer and the third largest electricity consumer in the nation in 2022, according to EIA, and California imports the most electricity from other states while Pennsylvania exports the most.

Although California produces significantly less electricity than Texas, it has the ability to connect with more than 10 neighboring balancing authorities within the Western Interconnection to interchange electricity, a dynamic that can see clean states importing dirty electricity under certain market conditions. ERCOT being independent only has electricity interchange with two balancing authorities, one of which is in Mexico.

Regardless of Texas’ unique power structure compared to the rest of the nation, the vast majority of the U.S. risked electricity supplies during this summer’s high heat, as outlined in severe heat blackout risks reports, according to EIA.

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Smart Renewables and Electrification Pathways Program enables clean energy and grid modernization across Canada, funding wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, tidal, and storage to cut GHG emissions and accelerate electrification toward a net-zero economy.

Key Points

A $964M Canadian program funding clean power and grid upgrades to cut emissions and build net-zero electrified economy.

✅ Funds wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, tidal, and storage projects

✅ Modernizes grids for reliability, digitalization, and resilience

✅ Supports net-zero by 2050 with Indigenous and utility partners

Harnessing Canada's immense clean energy resources requires transformational investments to modernize our electricity grid. The Government of Canada is investing in renewable energy and upgrading the electricity grid, moving toward an electric, connected and clean economy, to make clean, affordable electricity options more accessible in communities across Canada.

The Honourable Seamus O'Regan Jr., Minister of Natural Resources, today launched a $964-million program, alongside a recent federal green electricity contract in Alberta that underscores momentum, to support smart renewable energy and grid modernization projects that will lower emissions by investing in clean energy technologies, like wind, solar, storage, hydro, geothermal and tidal energy across Atlantic Canada.

The Smart Renewables and Electrification Pathways Program (SREPs) supports building Canada's low-emissions energy future and a renewable, electrified economy through projects that focus on non-emitting, cleaner energy technologies, such as storage, and modernizing electricity system operations.

Investing in these technologies reduces greenhouse gas emissions by creating a cleaner, more connected electrical system, supporting progress toward zero-emissions electricity by 2035 goals, while helping Canada reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

Minister O'Regan launched the program during the Canadian Electricity Association's (CEA) virtual regulatory forum on Electricity Regulation & the Four Disruptors – Decarbonization, Decentralization, Digitalization and Democratization, highlighting evolving regulatory approaches as B.C. streamlines clean energy approvals to support deployment nationwide. The launch also coincides with Canadian Environment Week, which celebrates Canada's environmental accomplishments and encourages Canadians to contribute to conserving and protecting the environment.

Through SREPs and other programming, the government is working with provinces and territories, with the Prairie Provinces leading renewable growth in the years ahead, utilities, Indigenous partners and others, including diverse businesses and communities, to deliver these clean and reliable energy initiatives. With Canadian innovation, technology and skilled energy workers, we can provide more communities, households and businesses with an increased supply of clean electricity and a cleaner electrical grid.

To help interested stakeholders find information on SREPs, a new webpage has been launched, which includes a comprehensive guide for eligible projects.

This supports Canada's strengthened climate plan, A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy. Canada is advancing projects that support the clean grid of the future and seize opportunities in the global electricity market to boost competitiveness. Collectively with investments from the Fall Economic Statement 2020 and Budget 2021, Canada will achieve our climate change commitments and ensure a healthier environment and more prosperous economy for future generations.

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UK Peak Power Prices surged as low wind speeds forced National Grid to rely on gas-fired plants and coal generation, amid soaring wholesale gas prices and weak wind generation during the energy crisis.

Key Points

UK Peak Power Prices are electricity costs at peak hours, driven by wind output, gas reliance, and market dynamics.

✅ Spikes when wind generation drops and demand rises.

✅ Driven by gas-fired plants, coal backup, and wholesale gas prices.

✅ Moderate as wind output recovers and interconnectors supply.

Low wind speeds pushed peak hour power prices to the second highest level for at least three years on Monday, a move consistent with UK electricity prices hitting a 10-year high earlier this year, as Britain’s grid was forced to increase its reliance on gas-fired power plants and draw on coal generation.

Calm weather this year has exacerbated the energy price crisis in the UK, as gas-fired power stations have had to pick up the slack from wind farms. Energy demand has surged as countries open up from pandemic restrictions, which together with lower supplies from Russia to western Europe, has sent wholesale gas prices soaring.

Power prices in the UK for the peak evening period between 5pm and 6pm on Monday surpassed £2,000 per megawatt hour, only the second time they have exceeded that level in recent years.

This was still below the levels reached at the height of the gas price crisis in mid-September, when they hit £2,500/MWh, according to the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight, whose records date back to 2018.

Low wind speeds were the main driver behind Monday’s price spike, although expectations of a pick-up in wind generation on Tuesday, after recent record wind generation days, should push them back down to similar levels seen in recent weeks, analysts said.

Despite the expansion of renewables, such as wind and solar, over the past decade, with instances of wind leading the power mix in recent months, gas remains the single biggest source of electricity generation in Britain, typically accounting for nearly 40 per cent of output.

At lunchtime on Monday, gas-fired power plants were producing nearly 55 per cent of electricity, while coal accounted for 3 per cent, reflecting more power from wind than coal in 2016 milestones. Britain’s wind farms were contributing 1.67 gigawatts or just over 4 per cent, according to data from the Drax Electrics Insights website. Over the past 12 months, wind farms have produced 21 per cent of the UK’s electricity on average.

National Grid, which manages the UK’s electricity grid, has been forced on a number of occasions in recent months to ask coal plants to fire up to help offset the loss of wind generation, after issuing a National Grid short supply warning to the market. The government announced in June that it planned to bring forward the closure of the remaining coal stations to the end of September 2024.

Ministers also committed this year to making Britain’s electricity grid “net zero carbon” by 2035, and milestones such as when wind was the main source underline the transition, although some analysts have pointed out that would not signal the end of gas generation.

Since the start of the energy crisis in August, 20 energy suppliers have gone bust as they have struggled to secure the electricity and gas needed to supply customers at record wholesale prices, with further failures expected in coming weeks.

Phil Hewitt, director of the consultancy EnAppSys, said Monday’s high prices would further exacerbate pressures on those energy suppliers that do not have adequate hedging strategies. “This winter is a good time to be a generator,” he added.

Energy companies including Orsted of Denmark and SSE of the UK have reported some of the lowest wind speeds for at least two decades this year, even though record output during Storm Malik highlighted the system's volatility.

According to weather modelling group Vortex, the strength of the wind blowing across northern Europe has fallen by as much as 15 per cent on average in places this year, which some scientists suggest could be due to climate change.
 

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VW Germany Plant Closures For EV Shift signal a strategic realignment toward electric vehicles, sustainability, and zero-emission mobility, optimizing manufacturing, cutting ICE capacity, boosting battery production, retraining workers, and aligning with the Accelerate decarbonization strategy.

Key Points

VW is shuttering German plants to cut ICE costs and scale EV output, advancing sustainability and competitiveness.

✅ Streamlines operations; reallocates capital to EV platforms and batteries.

✅ Cuts ICE output, lowers emissions, and boosts clean manufacturing capacity.

✅ Retrains workforce amid closures; invests in software and charging tech.

Volkswagen (VW), one of the world’s largest automakers, is undergoing a significant transformation with the announcement of plant closures in Germany. As reported by The Guardian, this strategic shift is part of VW’s broader move towards prioritizing electric vehicles (EVs) and adapting to the evolving automotive market as EVs reach an inflection point globally. The decision highlights the company’s commitment to sustainability and innovation amid a rapidly changing industry landscape.

Strategic Plant Closures

Volkswagen’s decision to close several of its plants in Germany marks a pivotal moment in the company's history. These closures are part of a broader strategy to streamline operations, reduce costs, and focus on the production of electric vehicles. The move reflects VW’s response to the growing demand for EVs and the need to transition from traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to cleaner, more sustainable alternatives.

The affected plants, which have been key components of VW’s manufacturing network, will cease production as the company reallocates resources and investments towards its electric vehicle programs. This realignment is aimed at improving operational efficiency and ensuring that VW remains competitive in a market that is increasingly oriented towards electric mobility.

A Shift Towards Electric Vehicles

The closures are closely linked to Volkswagen’s strategic shift towards electric vehicles. The automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation as governments and consumers place greater emphasis on sustainability and reducing carbon emissions. Volkswagen has recognized this shift and is investing heavily in the development and production of EVs as part of its "Accelerate" strategy, anticipating widespread EV adoption within a decade across key markets.

The company’s commitment to electric vehicles is evident in its plans to launch a range of new electric models and increase production capacity for EVs. Volkswagen aims to become a leader in the electric mobility sector by leveraging its technological expertise and scale to drive innovation and expand its EV offerings.

Economic and Environmental Implications

The closure of VW’s German plants carries both economic and environmental implications. Economically, the move will impact the workforce and local economies dependent on these manufacturing sites. Volkswagen has indicated that it will work on providing support and retraining opportunities for affected employees, as the EV aftermarket evolves and reshapes service needs, but the transition will still pose challenges for workers and their communities.

Environmentally, the shift towards electric vehicles represents a significant positive development. Electric vehicles produce zero tailpipe emissions, which aligns with global efforts to combat climate change and reduce air pollution. By focusing on EV production, Volkswagen is contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and supporting the transition to a more sustainable transportation system.

Challenges and Opportunities

While the transition to electric vehicles presents opportunities, it also comes with challenges. Volkswagen will need to manage the complexities of closing and repurposing its existing plants while ramping up production at new or upgraded facilities dedicated to EVs. This transition requires substantial investment in new technologies, infrastructure, and training, including battery supply strategies that influence manufacturing footprints, to ensure a smooth shift from traditional automotive manufacturing.

Additionally, Volkswagen faces competition from other automakers that are also investing heavily in electric vehicles, including Daimler's electrification plan outlining the scope of its transition. To maintain its competitive edge, VW must continue to innovate and offer attractive, high-performance electric models that meet consumer expectations.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, Volkswagen’s focus on electric vehicles aligns with broader industry trends and regulatory pressures. Governments worldwide are implementing stricter emissions regulations and providing incentives for EV adoption, although Germany's plan to end EV subsidies has sparked debate domestically, creating a favorable environment for companies that are committed to sustainability and clean technology.

Volkswagen’s investment in electric vehicles and its strategic realignment reflect a proactive approach to addressing these trends. The company’s ability to navigate the challenges associated with plant closures and the transition to electric mobility will be critical, especially as Europe's EV slump tests demand signals, in determining its success in the evolving automotive landscape.

Conclusion

Volkswagen’s decision to close several plants in Germany and focus on electric vehicle production represents a significant shift in the company’s strategy. While the closures present challenges, they also highlight Volkswagen’s commitment to sustainability and its response to the growing demand for cleaner transportation solutions. By investing in electric vehicles and adapting its operations, Volkswagen aims to lead the way in the transition to a more sustainable automotive future. As the company moves forward, its ability to effectively manage this transition will be crucial in shaping its role in the global automotive market.

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