Customers left in the dark more often than others in California

By San Francisco Chronicle


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Pacific Gas and Electric Co. customers endure more frequent and longer-lasting blackouts than other Californians, state data show.

The recent power outage in San Francisco and the Peninsula was no isolated incident. In 2006, the average PG&E customer lost power for more than 4 1/2 hours, according to statistics compiled by the utility and submitted to state energy regulators.

In contrast, Southern California Edison's average customer lost half as much time to blackouts - not quite 2 1/2 hours. And residents of San Diego fared even better, spending less than an hour without power all year.

PG&E's performance exasperates many of its customers and has fueled unsuccessful attempts in several cities - including the company's hometown of San Francisco - to break away from the vast utility.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom expressed frustration that the city had experienced another blackout.

"We've been through this so many times," he said after his staff met with PG&E representatives. "There's nothing more I can say. I've already said (everything) to them. Should I handcuff them? Arrest them? Should I bring them all to justice? Should I sue them? Obviously, we're not happy. Obviously, they're not happy."

PG&E still had not determined the cause of the blackout by that afternoon. But company representatives said they had made progress improving service in San Francisco in recent years, including installing another high-voltage line on the Peninsula to bring power into the city. Utility President Bill Morrow called the outage unacceptable.

"The performance does not reflect the level and quality of service that we are committed to providing customers and that they expect from PG&E," Morrow said in a prepared statement. Causes of Bay Area blackouts have varied from the startling to the mundane.

In 2003, for example, a fire at a San Francisco substation cut power to 120,000 customers the weekend before Christmas. In contrast, about 17,000 customers in the East Bay lost power last week in outages that the utility blamed on light rain, which mixed with dust to form mud, which caused equipment to short.

Many customers were stunned that such minor rainfall - less than a tenth of an inch in most places - could wreak such havoc.

"It was the most ridiculous thing I ever heard," said Rebecca Renfro, whose Berkeley home went without power for roughly 12 hours. "I thought, 'Wait a minute, this was not the first time in the history of the universe that there has been drizzle.' "

The company's blackouts occasionally have cost it money. PG&E agreed to pay $6.5 million in lieu of fines for the December 2003 outage. And the company's overall outage performance in 2005 triggered a $9.2 million penalty from the California Public Utilities Commission.

California's utilities keep tabs on their annual performance by compiling statistics that measure the frequency and length of blackouts year after year. One measurement - known as the system average interruption duration index, or SAIDI - adds up the duration of blackouts experienced during the year and divides that by the company's total number of customers.

PG&E's average customer went without power for 280.5 minutes last year, according to data compiled by the company and submitted to state energy regulators. Southern California Edison's average customer was blacked out for 142.3 minutes, and San Diego Gas and Electric's, 52.8 minutes.

The Sacramento Municipal Utility District recorded 99.3 minutes without power for the average customer last year. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power did not have comparable data available for 2006.

Utilities use a similar statistic to measure how often blackouts occur. Called the system average interruption frequency index, or SAIFI, this measurement counts the utility's total number of outages during the year and divides that by the number of customers.

There again, PG&E fared worse than its fellow California utilities in 2006.

The company's average customer lost power 1.7 times, compared to 1.1 times for Southern California Edison, 0.5 times for San Diego Gas and Electric Co. and 1.4 times for the Sacramento Municipal Utility District.

PG&E representatives often point out that their electrical distribution system is larger than the other utilities', spanning the territory from the Humboldt County coast to Bakersfield. It serves more customers - many of them living in remote and rugged terrain - and endures more frequent storms than the southern part of the state.

But some utilities in states with far worse weather still manage to rack up better performance statistics than PG&E.

Wisconsin, which endures blizzards in the winter and severe thunderstorms in the summer, had only one of the state's five large utilities reporting more than 160 minutes of outages for the average customer in 2006. In neighboring Minnesota, the highest number was 118 minutes.

Ed Salas, PG&E's senior vice president for engineering and operations, said not all utilities compile their data in quite the same way, even if they use the same basic formula. That's true when comparing within California as well as state to state, he said.

"You don't really have a clean ability on an apples-to-apples basis to compare, from one utility to another," Salas said.

California energy regulators allow utilities to compile a second set of statistics excluding outages that strike during government-declared emergencies or freak weather events, like last July's record-setting heat wave. By that standard, PG&E's performance has been improving steadily for three years. The average customer last year experienced 150.8 minutes of blackouts, compared with 187.1 minutes the previous year and 205.1 minutes in 2003.

Without those exceptions, PG&E's performance has been worsening since 2004, when the utility's average customer experienced 205.3 minutes of blackouts.

Salas said excluding unusual weather from the statistics shows the system's underlying health. States along the Gulf Coast, for example, would have seriously skewed statistics if they counted outages during hurricanes.

"If you're in the South, I'm not sure that including the Katrina effects would really tell you how your system performs," Salas said.

Still, some of the company's critics claim PG&E is excluding too many storms from its data in an effort to make the utility look better.

The Utility Reform Network, a local watchdog group, recently filed a complaint with state regulators after PG&E requested a $151,899 bonus for meeting performance goals set by the state. The utility excluded blackouts caused by minor winter storms, said the group's staff attorney, Matt Freedman.

"It's easy to get a reward when you remove all the days when you have outages," said Freedman, whose group argues that PG&E should face a $5.1 million penalty instead.

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Cyprus can’t delay joining the electricity highway

Cyprus Electricity Interconnectors link the island to the EU grid via EuroAsia and EuroAfrica projects, enabling renewable energy trade, subsea transmission, market liberalization, and stronger energy security and diplomacy across the region.

 

Key Points

Subsea links connecting Cyprus to Greece, Israel and Egypt for EU grid integration, renewable trade and energy security.

✅ Connects EU, Israel, Egypt via EuroAsia and EuroAfrica

✅ Enables renewables integration and market liberalization

✅ Strengthens energy security, investment, and diplomacy

 

Electricity interconnectors bridging Cyprus with the broader geographical region, mirroring projects like the Ireland-France grid link already underway in Europe, are crucial for its diplomacy while improving its game to become a clean energy hub.

In an interview with Phileleftheros daily, Andreas Poullikkas, chairman of the Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority (CERA), said electricity cables such as the EuroAsia Interconnector and the EuroAfrica Interconnector, could turn the island into an energy hub, creating investment opportunities.

“Cyprus, with proper planning, can make the most of its energy potential, turning Cyprus into an electricity producer-state and hub by establishing electrical interconnections, such as the EuroAsia Interconnector and the EuroAfrica Interconnector,” said Poullikkas.

He said these electricity interconnectors, “will enable the island to become a hub for electricity transmission between the European Union, Israel and Egypt, with developments such as the Israel Electric Corporation settlement highlighting regional dynamics, while increasing our energy security”.

Poullikkas argued it will have beneficial consequences in shaping healthy conditions for liberalising the country’s electricity market and economy, facilitating the production of electricity with Renewable Energy Sources and supporting broader efforts like the UK grid transformation toward net zero.

“Electricity interconnections are an excellent opportunity for greater business flexibility in Cyprus, ushering new investment opportunities, as seen with the Lake Erie Connector investment across North America, either in electricity generation or other sectors. Especially at a time when any investment or financial opportunity is welcomed.”

He said Cyprus’ energy resources are a combination of hydrocarbon deposits and renewable energy sources, such as solar.

This combination offers the country a comparative advantage in the energy sector.

Cyprus can take advantage of the development of alternative supply routes of the EU, as more links such as new UK interconnectors come online.

Poullikkas argued that as energy networks are developing rapidly throughout the bloc, serving the ever-increasing needs for electricity, and aligning with the global energy interconnection vision highlighted in recent assessments, the need to connect Cyprus with its wider geographical area is a matter of urgency.

He argues the development of important energy infrastructure, especially electricity interconnections, is an important catalyst in the implementation of Cyprus goals, while recognising how rule changes like Australia's big battery market shift can affect storage strategies.

“It should also be a national political priority, as this will help strengthen diplomatic relations,” added Poullikkas.

Implementing the electricity interconnectors between Israel, Cyprus and Greece through Crete and Attica (EuroAsia Interconnector) has been delayed by two years.

He said the delay was brought about after Greece decided to separate the Crete-Attica section of the interconnection and treat as a national project.

Poullikkas stressed the Greek authorities are committed to ensuring the connection of Cyprus with the electricity market of the EU.

“All the required permits have been obtained from the competent authorities in Cyprus and upon the completion of the procedures with the preferred manufacturers, construction of the Cyprus-Crete electrical interconnection will begin before the end of this year. Based on current data, the entire interconnection is expected to be implemented in 2023”.

“The EuroAfrica Interconnector is in the pre-works stage, all project implementation studies have already been completed and submitted to the competent authorities, including cost and benefit studies”.

EuroAsia Interconnector is a leading EU project of common interest (PCI), also labelled as an “electricity highway” by the European Commission.

It connects the national grids of Israel, Cyprus and Greece, creating a reliable energy bridge between the continents of Asia and Europe allowing bi-directional transmission of electricity.

The cost of the entire subsea cable system, at 1,208km, the longest in the world and the deepest at 3,000m below sea level, is estimated at €2.5 bln.

Construction costs for the first phase of the Egypt-Cyprus interconnection (EuroAfrica) with a Stage 1 transmission capacity of 1,000MW is estimated at €1bln.

The Cyprus-Greece (Crete) interconnection, as well as the Egypt-Cyprus electricity interconnector, will both be commissioned by December 2023.

 

 

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Germany turns to coal for a third of its electricity

Germany's Coal Reliance reflects an energy crisis, soaring natural gas prices, and a nuclear phase-out, as Destatis data show higher coal-fired electricity despite growing wind and solar generation, impacting grid stability and emissions.

 

Key Points

Germany's coal reliance is more coal power due to gas spikes and a nuclear phase-out, despite wind and solar growth.

✅ Coal share near one-third of electricity, per Destatis

✅ Gas-fired output falls as prices soar after Russia's invasion

✅ Wind and solar rise; grid stability and recession risks persist

 

Germany is relying on highly-polluting coal for almost a third of its electricity, as the impact of government policies, reflecting an energy balancing act for the power sector, and the war in Ukraine leads producers in Europe’s largest economy to use less gas and nuclear energy.

In the first six months of the year, Germany generated 82.6 kWh of electricity from coal, up 17 per cent from the same period last year, according to data from Destatis, the national statistics office, published on Wednesday. The leap means almost one-third of German electricity generation now comes from coal-fired plants, up from 27 per cent last year. Production from natural gas, which has tripled in price to €235 per megawatt hour since Russia’s invasion in late February, fell 18 per cent to only 11.7 per cent of total generation.

Destatis said that the shift from gas to coal was sharper in the second quarter. Coal-fired electricity increased by an annual rate of 23 per cent in the three months to June, while electricity generation from natural gas fell 19 per cent.

The figures highlight the challenge facing European governments in meeting clean energy goals after the Kremlin announced this week that the Nordstream 1 pipeline that takes Russian gas to Germany would remain closed until Europe removed sanctions on the country’s oil.

Germany has been trying to reduce its reliance on coal, which releases almost twice as many emissions as gas and more than 60 times those of nuclear energy, according to estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, though grid expansion challenges have slowed renewable build-out in recent years.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the opposition CDU bore “complete responsibility” for the exit from coal and nuclear power that formed part of his predecessor Angela Merkel’s Energiewende policies, amid a continuing nuclear option debate in climate policy, which in turn raised reliance on Russian gas. At the beginning of this year, more than 50 per cent of Germany’s gas imports came from Russia, a figure that fell slightly over the opening half of 2022.

But CDU leader Friedrich Merz accused the government of “madness” over its decision to idle the country’s three remaining nuclear power stations from the end of this year, though officials have argued that nuclear would do little to solve the gas issue in the short term.

Electricity generation from nuclear energy has already halved after three of the six nuclear power plants that were still in operation at the end of 2021 were closed during the first half of this year. Berlin said on Monday it would keep on standby two of its remaining three nuclear power stations, a move to extend nuclear power during the energy crisis, which were all due to close at the end of the year.

The German government has warned of the risk of electricity shortages this winter. “We cannot be sure that, in the event of grid bottlenecks in neighbouring countries, there will be enough power plants available to help stabilise our electricity grid in the short term,” said German economy minister Robert Habeck on Monday.

However Scholz said that, after raising gas storage levels to 86 per cent of capacity, Germany would “probably get through this winter, despite all the tension”.

One bright spot from the data was the increase in use of renewable energy, highlighting a recent renewables milestone in Germany. The proportion of electricity generated from wind power generation rose by 18 per cent to 25 per cent of all electricity generation, while solar energy production increased 20 per cent.

Ángel Talavera, head of Europe economics at the consultancy Oxford Economics, said that the success in moving away from gas towards other energy sources “means that the risks of hard energy rationing over the winter are less severe now, even with little to no Russian gas flows”.

However, economists still expect a recession in the eurozone’s largest economy, amid a deteriorating German economy outlook over the near term, as a large part of the impact comes via higher prices and because industries and households still rely on gas for heating.

Separate official data also published on Wednesday showed that German industrial production slid 0.3 per cent between June and July. Production at Germany’s most energy intensive industries fell almost 7 per cent in the five months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The demand destruction caused by the surge in prices will still send the German economy into recession over the winter,” said Talavera.

 

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Cryptocurrency firm in Plattsburgh fights $1 million electric charge

Coinmint Plattsburgh Dispute spotlights cryptocurrency mining, hydropower electricity rates, a $1M security deposit, Public Service Commission rulings, municipal utility policies, and seasonal migration to Massena data centers as Bitcoin price volatility pressures operations.

 

Key Points

Legal and energy-cost dispute over crypto mining, a $1,019,503 deposit, and operations in Plattsburgh and Massena.

✅ PSC allows higher rates and requires large security deposits.

✅ Winter electricity spikes drove a $1M deposit calculation.

✅ Coinmint shifted capacity to Massena data centers.

 

A few years ago, there was a lot of buzz about the North Country becoming the next Silicon Valley of cryptocurrency, even as Maine debated a 145-mile line that could reshape regional power flows. One of the companies to flock here was Coinmint. The cryptomining company set up shop in Plattsburgh in 2017 and declared its intentions to be a good citizen.

Today, Coinmint is fighting a legal battle to avoid paying the city’s electric utility more than $1 million owed for a security deposit. In addition to that dispute, a local property manager says the firm was evicted from one of its Plattsburgh locations.

Companies like Coinmint chose to come to the North Country because of the relatively low electricity prices here, thanks in large part to the hydropower dam on the St. Lawrence River in Massena, and regionally, projects such as the disputed electricity corridor have drawn attention to transmission costs and access. Coinmint operates its North Country Data Center facilities in Plattsburgh and Massena. In both locations, racks of computer servers perform complex calculations to generate cryptocurrency, such as bitcoin.

When cryptomining began to take off in Plattsburgh, the cost of one bitcoin was skyrocketing. That brought hype around the possibility of big business and job creation in the North Country. But cryptomininers like Coinmint were using massive amounts of energy in the winter of 2017-2018, and that season, electric bills of everyday Plattsburgh residents spiked.

Many cryptomining firms operate in a state of flux, beholden to the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, even as the end to the 'war on coal' declaration did little to change utilities' choices. When the price of one bitcoin hit $20,000 in 2017, it fell by 30% just days later. That’s one reason why the price of electricity is so critical for companies like Coinmint to turn a profit. 

Plattsburgh puts the brakes on “cryptocurrency mining”
In early 2018, Plattsburgh passed a moratorium on cryptocurrency mining operations, after residents complained of higher-than-usual electric bills.

“Your electric bill’s $100, then it’s at $130. Why? It’s because these guys that are mining the bitcoins are riding into town, taking advantage of a situation,” said resident Andrew Golt during a 2018 public hearing.

Coinmint aimed to assuage the worries of residents and other businesses. “At the end of the day we want to be a good citizen in whatever communities we’re in,” Coinmint spokesman Kyle Carlton told NCPR at that 2018 meeting.

“We’re open to working with those communities to figure out whatever solutions are going to work.”

The ban was lifted in Feb. 2019. However, since it didn’t apply to companies that were already mining cryptocurrency in Plattsburgh, Coinmint has operated in the city all along.

Coinmint challenges attempt to protect ratepayers
New rules passed by the New York Public Service Commission in March 2018 allow municipal power authorities including Plattsburgh’s to charge big energy users such as Coinmint higher electricity rates, amid customer backlash in other utility deals. The new rules also require them to put down a security deposit to ensure their bills get paid.

But Coinmint disputes that deposit charge. The company has been embroiled in a legal fight for nearly a year against Plattsburgh Municipal Lighting Department (PMLD) in an attempt to avoid paying the electric utility’s security deposit bill of $1,019,503. That bill is based on an estimate of what would cover two months of electricity use if a company were to leave town without paying its electric bills.

Coinmint would not discuss the dispute on the record with NCPR. Legal documents show the firm argues the deposit charge is inflated, based on a flawed calculation resulting in a charge hundreds of thousands of dollars higher than what it should be.

“Essentially they’re arguing that they should only have to put up some average of their monthly bills without accounting for the fact that winter bills are significantly higher than the average,” said Ken Podolny, an attorney representing the Plattsburgh utility.

The company took legal action in February 2019 against PMLD in the hopes New York’s energy regulator, the Public Service Commission, would agree with Coinmint that the deposit charge was too high. An informal commission hearing officer disagreed, and ruled in October the charge was calculated correctly.

Coinmint appealed the ruling in November and a hearing on the appeal could come as soon as February.

Less than a week after Coinmint lost its initial challenge of the deposit charge, the company made a splashy announcement trumpeting its plans to “migrate its Plattsburgh, New York infrastructure to its Massena, New York location for the 2019-2020 winter season.”

The announcement made no mention of the appeal or the recent ruling against Coinmint. The company attributed its new plan to “exceptionally-high” electricity rates in Plattsburgh, as hydropower transmission projects elsewhere in New England faced their own controversies. 

"We recognize some in the Plattsburgh community have blamed our operation for pushing rates higher for everyone so, while we disagree with that assessment, we hope this seasonal migration will have a positive impact on rates for all our neighbors,” said Coinmint cofounder Prieur Leary in the press statement.

“In the event that doesn't happen, we trust the community will look for the real answers for these high costs." Prieur Leary has since been removed from the corporate team page on the company’s website.

The company still operates in Plattsburgh at one of its locations in the city. As for staff, while at least two Coinmint employees have moved from Plattsburgh to Massena, where the company operates a data center inside a former Alcoa aluminum plant, it is unclear how many people in total have made the move.

Coinmint left its second Plattsburgh location in 2019. The company would not discuss that move on the record, yet the circumstances of the departure are murky.

The local property manager of the industrial park site told NCPR, “I have no comment on our evicted tenant Coinmint.” The property owner, California’s Karex Property Management Services, also would not comment regarding the situation, noting that “all staff have been told to not discuss anything regarding our past tenant Coinmint.”

Today, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are worth a fraction of what they were back in 2017 when Coinmint came to the North Country, and now, amid a debate over Bitcoin's electricity use shaping market sentiment, the future of the entire industry here remains uncertain.

 

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Miami Valley Expands EV Infrastructure with 24 New Chargers

Miami Valley EV Chargers Expansion strengthens Level 2 charging infrastructure across Dayton, with Ohio EPA funding and Volkswagen settlement support, easing range anxiety and promoting sustainable transportation at Austin Landing and high-traffic destinations.

 

Key Points

An Ohio initiative installing 24 Level 2 stations to boost EV adoption, reduce range anxiety, and expand access in Dayton.

✅ 24 new Level 2 chargers at high-traffic regional sites

✅ Ohio EPA and VW settlement funds support deployment

✅ Reduces range anxiety, advancing sustainable mobility

 

The Miami Valley region in Ohio is accelerating its transition to electric vehicles (EVs) with the installation of 24 new Level 2 EV chargers, funded through a $1.1 million project supported by the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This initiative aims to enhance EV accessibility and alleviate "range anxiety" among drivers as the broader U.S. EV boom tests grid readiness.

Strategic Locations Across the Region

The newly installed chargers are strategically located in high-traffic areas to maximize their utility as national charging networks compete to expand coverage across travel corridors. Notable sites include Austin Landing, the Dayton Art Institute, the Oregon District, Caesar Creek State Park, and the Rose Music Center. These locations were selected to ensure that EV drivers have convenient access to charging stations throughout the region, similar to how Ontario streamlines station build-outs to place chargers where drivers already travel.

Funding and Implementation

The project is part of Ohio's broader effort to expand EV infrastructure, reflecting the evolution of U.S. charging infrastructure while utilizing funds from the Volkswagen Clean Air Act settlement. The Ohio EPA awarded approximately $3.25 million statewide for the installation of Level 2 EV chargers, with the Miami Valley receiving a significant portion of this funding, while Michigan utility programs advance additional investments to scale regional infrastructure.

Impact on the Community

The expansion of EV charging infrastructure is expected to have several positive outcomes. It will provide greater convenience for current EV owners and encourage more residents to consider electric vehicles as a viable transportation option, including those in apartments and condos who benefit from expanded access. Additionally, the increased availability of charging stations supports the state's environmental goals by promoting the adoption of cleaner, more sustainable transportation.

Looking Ahead

As the adoption of electric vehicles continues to grow, the Miami Valley's investment in EV infrastructure positions the region as a leader in sustainable transportation as utilities pursue ambitious charging strategies to meet demand. The success of this project may serve as a model for other regions looking to expand their EV charging networks. This initiative reflects a significant step towards a more sustainable and accessible transportation future for the Miami Valley.

 

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Energy chief says electricity would continue uninterrupted if coal phased out within 30 years

Australia Energy Policy Debate highlights IPCC warnings, Paris Agreement goals, coal phase-out, emissions reduction, renewables, gas, pumped hydro, storage, reliability, and investment certainty amid NEG uncertainty and federal-state tensions over targets.

 

Key Points

Debate over coal, emissions targets, and grid reliability, guided by IPCC science, Paris goals, and market reforms.

✅ IPCC urges rapid cuts and coal phase-out by 2050

✅ NEG's emissions pillar stalled; reliability obligation alive

✅ States, market operators push investment certainty and storage

 

The United Nation’s climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, on Monday said radical emissions reduction across the world’s economies, including a phase-out of coal by 2050, was required to avoid the most devastating climate change impacts.

The Morrison government dismissed the findings. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg insisted this week that “coal is an important part of the energy mix”.

“If we were to take coal out of the system the lights would go out on the east coast of Australia overnight. It provides more than 60 per cent of our power," he said.

Ms Zibelman, whose organisation operates the nation’s largest gas and electricity markets, said if Australia was to make an orderly transition to low-emissions electricity generation, aligning with the sustainable electric planet vision, “then certainly we would keep the lights on”.

Ms Zibelman said coal assets should be maintained “as long as they are economically viable and we should have a plan to replace them with resources that are lowest cost”.

Those options comprised gas, renewables, pumped hydro and other energy storage, she told ABC radio, as New Zealand weighs electrification to replace fossil fuels.

Under the Paris treaty the government has pledged to lower emissions by 26 per cent by 2030, based on 2005 levels, even as national emissions rose 2% recently according to industry reports.

Labor would increase the goal to a 45 per cent cut - a policy Prime Minister Scott Morrison said last month would " shut down every coal-fired power station in the country and ... increase people’s power bill by about $1,400 on average for every single household”.

The federal government has scrapped its proposed National Energy Guarantee, which would have cut emissions in the electricity sector, but the reliability component of the plan may continue in some form.

The policy was being developed by the Energy Security Board. The group’s chairwoman Kerry Schott has expressed anger at its demise but on Thursday revealed the board was still working on the policy because “nobody told us to stop”.

Speaking at the Melbourne Institute's Outlook conference, she urged the government to revive the emissions reduction component of the plan to provide investment certainty, noting the IEA net-zero report on Canada shows electricity demand rises in decarbonisation.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor, an energy consultant before entering Parliament, on Thursday said the electricity sector would reduce emissions in line with the Paris deal without a mandated target.

Mr Taylor said only a “very brave state” would not support the policy’s reliability obligation.

The federal government has called a COAG energy council meeting for October 26 in Sydney to discuss electricity reliability.

It is understood Mr Taylor has not contacted Victoria, Queensland or the ACT since taking the portfolio, despite needing unanimous support from the states to progress the issue.

The Victorian government goes into caretaker mode on October 30 ahead of that state's election.

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said the federal government was “a rabble when it comes to energy policy, and we won’t be signing anything until after the election".

Speaking at the Melbourne Institute conference, prominent business leaders on Thursday bemoaned a lack of political leadership on energy policy and climate change, saying the only way forward appeared to be for companies to take action themselves, with some pointing to Canada's race to net-zero as a case study in the role of renewables.

Jayne Hrdlicka, chief executive of ASX-listed dairy and infant-formula company a2 Milk, said "we all have an obligation to do the very best job we can in managing our carbon footprint".

"We just need to get on doing what we can .. and then hope that policy will catch up. But we can’t wait," she said.

Ms Hrdlicka said the recent federal political turmoil had been frustrating "because if you invest in building relationships as most of us do in Canberra and then overnight they are all changed, you’re starting from scratch".

 

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America Going Electric: Dollars And Sense

California Net Zero Grid Investment will fuel electrification, renewable energy buildout, EV adoption, and grid modernization, boosting utilities, solar, and storage, while policy, IRA incentives, and transmission upgrades drive reliability and long-term rate base growth.

 

Key Points

Funding to electrify sectors and modernize the grid, scaling renewables, EVs, and storage to meet 2045 net zero goals.

✅ $370B over 22 years to meet 2045 net zero target

✅ Utilities lead gains via grid modernization and rate base growth

✅ EVs, solar, storage scale; IRA credits offset costs

 

$370 billion: That’s the investment Edison International CEO Pedro Pizarro says is needed for California’s power grid to meet the state’s “net zero” goal for CO2 emissions by 2045.

Getting there will require replacing fossil fuels with electricity in transportation, HVAC systems for buildings and industrial processes. Combined with population growth and data demand potentially augmented by artificial intelligence, that adds up to an 82 percent increase in electricity demand over 22 years, or 3 percent annually, and a potential looming shortage if buildout lags.

California’s plans also call for phasing out fossil fuel generation in the state, despite ongoing dependence on fossil power during peaks. And presumably, its last nuclear plant—PG&E Corp’s (PCG) Diablo Canyon—will be eventually be shuttered as well. So getting there also means trebling the state’s renewable energy generation and doubling usage of rooftop solar.

Assuming this investment is made, it’s relatively easy to put together a list of beneficiaries. Electric vehicles hit 20 percent market share in the state in Q2, even as pandemic-era demand shifts complicate load forecasting. And while competition from manufacturers has increased, leading manufacturers like Tesla TSLA -3% Inc (TSLA) can look forward to rising sales for some time—though that’s more than priced in for Elon Musk’s company at 65 times expected next 12 months earnings.

In the past year, California regulators have dialed back net metering through pricing changes affecting compensation, a subsidy previously paying rooftop solar owners premium prices for power sold back to the grid. That’s hit share prices of SunPower Corp (SPWR) and Sunrun Inc (RUN) quite hard, by further undermining business plans yet to demonstrate consistent profitability.

Nonetheless, these companies too can expect robust sales growth, as global prices for solar components drop and Inflation Reduction Act tax credits at least somewhat offset higher interest rates. And the combination of IRA tax credits and U.S. tariff walls will continue to boost sales at solar manufacturers like JinkoSolar Holding (JKS).

The surest, biggest beneficiaries of California’s drive to Net Zero are the utilities, reflecting broader utility trends in grid modernization, with investment increasing earnings and dividends. And as the state’s largest pure electric company, Edison has the clearest path.

Edison is currently requesting California regulators OK recovery over a 30-year period of $2.4 billion in losses related to 2017 wildfires. Assuming a amicable decision by early next year, management can then turn its attention to upgrading the grid. That investment is expected to generate long-term rate base growth of 8 percent at year, fueling 5 to 7 percent annual earnings growth through 2028 with commensurate dividend increases.

That’s a strong value proposition Edison stock, with trades at just 14 times expected next 12 months earnings. The yield of roughly 4.4 percent at current prices was increased 5.4 percent this year and is headed for a similar boost in December.

When California deregulated electricity in 1996, it required utilities with rare exceptions to divest their power generation. As a result, Edison’s growth opportunity is 100 percent upgrading its transmission and distribution grid. And its projects can typically be proposed, sited, permitted and built in less than a year, limiting risk of cost overruns to ensure regulatory approval and strong investment returns.

Edison’s investment plan is also pretty much immune to an unlikely backtracking on Net Zero goals by the state. And the company has a cost argument as well: Dr Pizarro cites U.S. Department of Energy and Department of Transportation data to project inflation-adjusted savings of 40 percent in California’s total customer energy bills from full electrification.

There’s even a reason to believe 40 percent savings will prove conservative. Mainly, gasoline currently accounts for a bit more than half energy expenditures. And after a more than 10-year global oil and gas investment drought, supplies are likely get tighter and prices possibly much higher in coming years.

Of course, those savings will only show up after significant investment is made. At this point, no major utility system in the world runs on 100 percent renewable energy, and California’s blackout politics underscore how reliability concerns shape deployment. And the magnitude of storage technology needed to overcome intermittency in solar and wind generation is not currently available let alone affordable, though both cost and efficiency are advancing.

Taking EVs from 20 to 100 percent of California’s new vehicle sales calls for a similar leap in efficiency and cost, even with generous federal and state subsidy. And while technology to fully electrify buildings and homes is there, economically retrofitting statewide is almost certainly going to be a slog.

At the end of the day, political will is likely to be as important as future technological advance for how much of Pizarro’s $370 billion actually gets spent. And the same will be true across the U.S., with state governments and regulators still by and large calling the shots for how electricity gets generated, transmitted and distributed—as well as who pays for it and how much, even as California’s exported policies influence Western markets.

Ironically, the one state where investors don’t need to worry about renewable energy’s prospects is one of the currently reddest politically. That’s Florida, where NextEra Energy NEE +2.8% (NEE) and other utilities can dramatically cut costs to customers and boost reliability by deploying solar and energy storage.

You won’t hear management asserting it can run the Sunshine State on 100 percent renewable energy, as utilities and regulators do in some of the bluer parts of the country. But by demonstrating the cost and reliability argument for solar deployment, NextEra is also making the case why its stock is America’s highest percentage bet on renewables’ growth—particularly at a time when all things energy are unfortunately becoming increasingly, intensely political.

 

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