Canada's race to net-zero and the role of renewable energy


canada net zero race

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Canada Net-Zero demands renewable energy deployment, leveraging hydropower to integrate wind, solar, and storage, scaling electrification, cutting oil and gas emissions, aligning policy, carbon pricing, and investment to deliver a clean grid by 2050.

 

Key Points

A national goal to cut emissions 40-45% by 2030 and reach economy-wide net-zero by 2050 through clean electrification.

✅ Hydropower balances intermittent wind and solar.

✅ Policy, carbon pricing, and investment accelerate deployment.

✅ Clean energy jobs surge as oil and gas decline.

 

As the UN climate talks draw near, Canada has enormous work left to do to reach its goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Collectively, Canadians have to cut overall greenhouse-gas emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2050 across the economy.

And whereas countries like the U.K. have dramatically slashed their emissions levels, Canada's one of the few nations where emissions keep skyrocketing, and where fossil fuel extraction keeps increasing every year despite our climate targets.

Changes in national emissions and fossil fuel extraction since 1950, for G7 nations plus Norway and Australia
Graphic by Barry Saxifrage in Sep.15 article,Canada's climate solution? Keep increasing fossil fuels extraction.
Given its track record, and the IEA's finding that Canada will need more electricity to hit net-zero, how will Canada achieve its goal of getting to net-zero by 2050?

As Trudeau seeks to cement his political legacy, these are the MPs he’s considering for cabinet
By Andrew Perez | Opinion | October 25th 2021
In the upcoming online Conversations event on Thursday, 11 a.m. PT/2 p.m. ET, host and Canada's National Observer deputy managing editor David McKie will discuss how cleaning up Canada's electricity and renewable energy can put the country on track to hitting its targets with Clean Energy Canada executive director Merran Smith, Canadian Institute for Climate Choices senior economist Dale Beugin, and WaterPower Canada CEO Anne-Raphaëlle Audouin.

Getting to net-zero grid through renewable electricity
“If we wanted to be powered by 100 per cent renewable electricity, including proposals for a fully renewable electricity grid by 2030, Canada is one of the countries where this is actually possible,” said Audouin.

She says for that to happen, it would take a slate of clean energy providers working together to fill the gaps, rather than competing for market dominance.

“You couldn't power Canada just with wind and solar, even with batteries. That being said, renewables happen to work very well together ” she said. “Hydropower already makes up more than 90 per cent of Canada’s renewable generation and 60 per cent of the country’s total electricity needs are currently met thanks to this flexible, dispatchable, abundant source of baseload renewable electricity. It isn’t a stretch of the imagination to envision hydropower and wind and solar working increasingly together to clean up our grid. In fact, hydropower already backs up and allows intermittent renewable energies like wind and solar onto the grid.”

She noted that while hydropower alone won't be the solution, its long history and indisputable suite of attributes — hydroelectricity has been in Canada since the 1890s — will make it a key part of the clean energy transition required to replace coal, natural gas and oil, which still make up around 20 per cent of Canada's power sources.

Canada's vast access to water, wind, biomass, solar, geothermal, and ocean energy, and a federal government that has committed to climate goals, makes us well-positioned to lead the way to a net-zero future and eventually the electrification of our economy. So, what's holding the country back?

The new reality for renewables
According to Clean Energy Canada, it's possible to grow the clean energy sector, but only if businesses invest massively in renewables and governments give guidance and oversight informed by the implications of decarbonizing Canada's electricity grid research.

A recent modelling study from Clean Energy Canada and Navius Research exploring the energy picture here in Canada over the next decade shows our clean energy sector is expected to grow by about 50 per cent by 2030 to around 640,000 people. Already, the clean energy industry provides 430,500 jobs — more than the entire real estate sector — and that growth is expected to accelerate as our dependence on oil and gas decreases. In fact, clean energy jobs in Alberta are predicted to jump 164 per cent over the next decade.

Currently, provinces with the most hydropower generation are also the ones with the lowest electricity rates, reflecting that electricity has been a nationwide climate success in Canada. Wind and solar are now on par, or even more competitive, than natural gas, and that could have big implications for other major sectors of the economy. Grocery giant Loblaws (which owns brands including President's Choice, Joe Fresh, and Asian grocery chain T&T) deployed its fleet of fully electric delivery trucks in recent years, and Hydro-Québec just signed a $20-billion agreement to help power and decarbonize the state of New York over the next 25 years.

In The New Reality, Smith writes that many carbon-intensive industries, such as the mining sector, could also potentially benefit from the increased demand for certain natural resources — like lithium and nickel — as the world switches to electric vehicles and clean power.

“Oil and gas may have dominated Canada’s energy past, but it’s Canada’s clean energy sector that will define its new reality,” Smith emphasized.

Despite its vast potential to be one of the world's clean energy leaders, Canada has a long way to getting on the path to net zero. Even though the country is home to some of the world's leading cleantech companies, such as B.C.-based clean hydrogen fuel cell providers Ballard Power and Loop Energy and Nova Scotia-based carbon utilization company CarbonCure, the country continues to expand fossil fuel extraction to the point that emissions are projected to jump to around 1,500 MtCO2 worth by 2030.

 

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West Wind Clean Energy Project Launched

Nova Scotia’s West Wind Clean Energy Project aims to harness offshore wind power to deliver renewable electricity, expand transmission infrastructure, and position Canada as a global leader in sustainable energy generation.

 

What is West Wind Clean Energy?

The West Wind Clean Energy Project is Nova Scotia’s $60-billion offshore wind initiative to generate up to 66 GW of clean electricity for Canada’s growing energy needs.

✅ Harnesses offshore wind resources for renewable power generation

✅ Expands grid and transmission infrastructure for clean energy exports

✅ Supports Canada’s transition to a sustainable, low-carbon economy

Nova Scotia has launched one of the most ambitious clean energy projects in Canadian history — a $60-billion plan to build 66 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind capacity, as countries like the UK expand offshore wind, capable of meeting up to 27 per cent of the nation’s total electricity demand.

Premier Tim Houston unveiled the project, called West Wind, in June, positioning it as a cornerstone of Canada’s broader energy transition and aligning it with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s goal of making the country both a clean energy and conventional energy superpower. Three months later, Carney announced a slate of “nation-building” infrastructure projects the federal government would fast-track. While West Wind was not on the initial list, it was included in a second tier of high-potential proposals still under development.

The plan’s scale is unprecedented for Canada’s offshore energy industry, as organizations like Marine Renewables Canada pivot toward offshore wind to accelerate growth. However, enormous logistical, financial, and market challenges remain. Turbines will not be in the water for years, and the global offshore wind industry itself is facing one of its most difficult periods in over a decade.

“Right now is probably the worst time in 15 years to launch a project like this,” said an executive at a Canadian energy company who requested anonymity. “It’s not Nova Scotia’s fault. It’s just really bad timing.” He pointed to failed offshore wind auctions in Europe, rising costs, and policy reversals in the United States as troubling signals for investors, even as New York’s largest offshore wind project moved ahead this year. “You can’t build the wind and hope the lines come later. You have to build both — together.”

Indeed, transmission infrastructure is emerging as the project’s biggest obstacle. Nova Scotia’s local electricity demand is limited, meaning most of the power would need to be sold to markets in Ontario, Quebec, and New England. Of the $60 billion budgeted for West Wind, $40 billion is allocated to generation, and $20 billion to new transmission — massive sums that require close federal-provincial coordination and long-term investment planning.

Despite the economic headwinds, advocates argue that West Wind could transform Atlantic Canada’s energy landscape and strengthen national energy security, building on recent tidal power investments in Nova Scotia. Peter Nicholson, chair of the Canadian Climate Institute and author of Catching the Wind: How Atlantic Canada Can Become an Energy Superpower, believes the project could redefine Nova Scotia’s role in Canada’s energy transition.

“It’s very well understood where the world is headed,” Nicholson said, noting that wind power is becoming increasingly competitive worldwide. “We’re moving toward an electrical future that’s cleanly generated for economic, environmental, and security reasons. But for that to happen, the economics have to work.” He added that the official “nation-building” designation could give Nova Scotia “a seat at the table” with major utilities in other provinces.

The governments of Canada and Nova Scotia recently issued a notice of strategic direction to the Canada–Nova Scotia Offshore Energy Regulator, aligning with Ottawa’s plan to regulate offshore wind as it begins a prequalification process and designs a call for bids later this year. The initial round will cover just 3 GW of capacity — smaller than the originally envisioned 5 GW — but officials describe it as a first step in a multi-decade plan.

While timing and economics remain uncertain, supporters insist the long-term potential of offshore wind in Nova Scotia is too significant to ignore. As global demand for clean electricity grows and offshore wind moves toward a trillion-dollar global market, they argue, West Wind could help secure Canada’s place as a renewable energy leader — if government and industry can find a way to make the numbers work.

 

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EV shortages, wait times amid high gasoline prices

Canada EV demand surge is driven by record gas prices, zero-emission policies, and tight dealer inventory, while microchip shortages, ZEV mandates abroad, and lithium supply concerns extend wait times for new and used models.

 

Key Points

Canada EV demand surge is rising interest in zero-emission cars due to high gas prices and limited EV supply.

✅ Gas at $2/litre spurs zero-emission interest

✅ Dealer inventory scarce; waits up to 3 years

✅ Microchip and lithium constraints limit output

 

Price shock at the pump is driving  Canadians toward buying an ev. But manufacturers are having trouble keeping up with consumer demand, even as the U.S. auto sector pivots to EVs across North America.

In parts of the country, gas prices exceeded $2 per litre last month amid strong global demand for oil combined with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Halifax-based electric vehicle salesperson Jeremie Bernardin said he's noticed an explosion of interest in zero-emission vehicles since the price of fuel started to take off.

"I think there's a lot of people that were considering electric vehicles for a very long time, and they needed that extra little push," Bernardin, who is also the president of the Electric Vehicle Association of Atlantic Canada, where Atlantic EV demand has lagged the national average, told CTVNews.ca over the phone on Wednesday.

With so few electric vehicles on dealership lots, Canadians looking to buy a brand-new zero-emission car will have to put down a deposit and get onto a waiting list. Bernardin said the wait times can be as long as three years, depending on the manufacturer and the dealership.

Tesla, which makes Canada's best-selling electric car according to the automotive publication Motor Illustrated, says delivery times for its vehicles range between three months to one year, depending on the model. But some manufacturers like Nissan have already completely sold out of their electric vehicle inventory for the 2022 model year, though recent EV assembly deals in Canada aim to expand capacity over time.

Shortages of electric vehicles have been around long before the recent spike in gas prices. In March 2021, a report commissioned by Transport Canada found that more than half of Canadian dealerships had no electric vehicles in stock. The report also found that wait times exceeded six months at 31 per cent of dealerships that had no zero-emission cars in their inventory.

Interest in used electric vehicles has also surged amid the high gas prices. Used car marketplace AutoTrader.ca says searches for electric cars in March 2022 increased 89 per cent compared to the previous year, while the number of inquiries sent to electric vehicle sellers through its platform jumped 567 per cent.

"It's understandable that when the gas prices are expensive, consumers are looking to buy and get into electric vehicles, though upfront cost remains a major barrier for many buyers today," Baris Akyurek, AutoTrader.ca's director of marketing intelligence, told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on Wednesday.

SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES PERSIST
The surging interest in electric vehicles also comes at a time when pandemic-induced shortages of microchips have been affecting the automotive industry at large since late 2020. Modern automobiles can have hundreds of microchips that control everything from the air conditioning to the power steering system, and a shortage of these crucial components have resulted in fewer vehicles being manufactured.

"Electric vehicles are subject to supply chain issues, just like anything else. Right now, the COVID pandemic has disrupted global supply chains. The auto industry specifically is seeing a microchip shortage that it's been struggling with for the past year or two. So those things are at play," said Joanna Kyriazis, senior policy advisor with Simon Fraser University’s Clean Energy Canada, in a phone interview with CTVNews.ca on Tuesday.

On top of that, Kyriazis says more than 80 per cent of the world's supply of electric vehicles are shipped to consumers in China and the European Union.

China has a strict zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate that requires automakers to ensure that a certain minimum percentage of their vehicles are electric or hydrogen-powered. In Europe, automakers are also forced to sell more electric vehicles there in order to meet the EU's stringent fleetwide emissions standards, and in Canada, Ottawa is preparing EV sales regulations to guide adoption in the coming years.

"We don't have the same aggressive regulations in place yet to really force automakers to prioritize the Canadian market when they're deciding where to allocate their EV inventory and where to sell EVs," said Kyriazis, though Ottawa's 2035 EV mandate remains debated by some industry observers today.

Kyriazis also said she believes it's possible that a shortage of lithium and other minerals required for battery production could be a potential issue within the next five years.

"But my understanding is that the global market is not hitting a supply crunch just yet," she said. "There could be a near-term supply issue. But we're not there yet."

In order to ensure adequate supply of minerals for battery production, the federal government in its most recent budget committed to providing up to $3.8 billion over eight years to create "Canada's first critical minerals strategy." The strategy is aimed at boosting extraction and production of Canadian nickel, lithium and other minerals used as components in electric vehicles and their batteries, and it aligns with opportunities for Canada-U.S. collaboration as companies electrify.

"Canada has a lot of natural resources and a lot of experience with natural resource extraction. We really can stand to be a leader in battery production," said Harry Constatine, president of the Vancouver Electric Vehicles Association, in an interview with CTVNews.ca over the phone on Monday.

 

 

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Electric vehicle charging network will be only two thirds complete by Friday deadline, Ontario says

Ontario EV Charging Network Delay highlights permitting hurdles, grid limitations, and public-private rollout challenges across 250 sites, as two-thirds of 475 chargers go live while full provincewide infrastructure deployment slips to fall.

 

Key Points

A provincial rollout setback where permitting and grid issues delay full activation of Ontario's 475 public EV chargers.

✅ Two-thirds of 475 chargers live by the initial deadline

✅ Remaining stations expected online by fall

✅ Delays tied to permits, site conditions, and grid capacity

 

The Ontario government admitted Wednesday that it will fall short of meeting its deadline this Friday of creating a network of 475 electric vehicle charging stations in 250 locations across the province, and it's blaming unforeseen problems for the delay.

"We know some of our partners have encountered difficulties around permitting and some of the technical aspects of having some of the chargers up and running, even as we work to make it easier to build EV charging stations across Ontario," said Transportation Minister Steven Del Duca.

Two-thirds of the network will be live on Friday with the rest of the stations expected to be up and running by fall, according to the Ministry of Transportation. 

"Each of our partners' individual charging stations are subject to different site conditions, land ownership, municipal permitting, electrical grid limitations, as seen in regions where EV infrastructure lags, and other factors which have influenced timelines," said Bob Nichols, senior media liaison officer for the Transportation Ministry, in a statement. 

Because the stations are located in various community centres, retail outlets and other public spaces, Del Duca said the government's public and private sector partners are facing challenges in obtaining permits but are "motivated to get it right."

Cara Clairman, president and CEO of Plug'n Drive, an organization dedicated to accelerating the rollout of electric vehicles, says she isn't concerned about the delay.

"It was a pretty aggressive timeline. The EV community is pretty happy with the fact that it is going to happen. It might be slightly delayed but I think overall the mood is positive," she said.

Clairman said there are now more than 10,000 electric vehicles in the province and that more growth is expected as Ontario's next EV wave emerges in the market. She doesn't believe the delay in the rollout of charging stations will deter anyone from purchasing electric vehicles, even amid EV shortages and wait times in some segments.

"It certainly does help to persuade new folks to get on board but I think since they know it is coming, I don't see it having a big impact." 

Horwath not surprised

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said she's not surprised the government didn't meet its target.

"You shouldn't be making these promises if you can't fulfil them, that's the bottom line," she said. "Let's be realistic with
what you're able to achieve."

Progressive Conservative transportation critic Michael Harris suggested the Liberals don't have their priorities straight when it comes to electric vehicles.

"I think the focus for Kathleen Wynne was handing out $14,000 rebates to owners of Teslas, while they really should have been focusing their time and energy on ensuring that the infrastructure for electric vehicles has actually been rolled out," Harris said.

Covering every corner

Del Duca said the ministry has seen "some fairly tremendous success" despite the delays but that there have been a few challenges in building a network that ranges across the province, even as N.L.'s first fast-charging network is touted as just the beginning elsewhere. 

"We definitely want to make sure we're building a network that covers every corner of Ontario. Yes, we have some challenges and we are slightly delayed," the minister said.

"We anticipate being able to provide more resources in the coming months to continue to deploy an even broader network of charging infrastructure, including in northern Ontario."

Del Duca said a map on the ministry's website showing where the charging stations are installed should be updated in the next few days.

Premier Wynne committed to building a charging network for electric vehicles across Ontario at the 2015 climate change talks in Paris.

The $20 million in funding for the charging stations comes from Ontario's $325 million Green Investment Fund, which supports projects that fight climate change.

 

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Report: Canada's renewable energy growth projections scaled back after Ontario scraps clean energy program

Canada Renewable Energy Outlook highlights IEA forecasts of slower capacity growth as Ontario cancels LRP auctions; wind, solar, and hydro expand amid carbon pricing, coal phase-out, Alberta tenders, and falling costs despite natural gas competition.

 

Key Points

The Canada Renewable Energy Outlook distills IEA projections and policies behind wind, solar, and hydro growth to 2022.

✅ IEA trims Canada renewables growth to 9 GW by 2022

✅ Ontario LRP cuts and Quebec tenders reduce near-term additions

✅ Wind, solar, hydro expand amid carbon pricing and coal phase-out

 

A new report expects growth in Canadian renewable energy capacity to slow in the next five years compared to earlier projections, a decrease that comes after Ontario scrapped a contentious clean energy program aimed at boosting wind and solar supplies.

The International Energy Agency’s annual outlook for renewable energy, released Wednesday, projects Canada’s renewable capacity to grow by nine gigawatts between 2017 and 2022, down from last year’s report that projected capacity would grow by 13GW.

The influential Paris-based agency said its recent outlook for Canadian renewables was “less optimistic” than its 2016 projection due to “recent changes in auctions schemes in Ontario and Quebec.”

 

PROGRAM CUTS

In mid-2016 the Ontario government suspended the second phase of its Large Renewable Procurement (LPR) program, axing $3.8 billion in planned renewable energy contracts. And Quebec cancelled tenders for several clean energy projects, which also led the agency to trim its forecasts, the report said.

Ontario cut the LRP program amid anger over rising electricity bills, which critics said was at least partly due to the rapid expansion of wind power supplies across the province.

Experts said the rise in costs was also partly due to major one-time costs to maintain aging infrastructure, particularly the $12.8-billion refurbishment of the Darlington nuclear plant located east of Toronto. The province also has plans to renovate the nearby Pickering nuclear plant in coming years.

The IEA report comes as Ottawa aims to drastically cut carbon emissions, largely by expanding renewable energy capacity. The provinces, including the Prairie provinces, have meanwhile been looking to pare back emissions by phasing out coal and implementing a carbon tax.

While Ontario’s decision to scrap the LRP program is a minor setback in the near-term, analysts say that tightening environmental policy in Canada and elsewhere will regardless continue to drive rapid growth in renewable energy supplies like wind power and solar.

Even the threat of cheap supplies of natural gas, a major competitor to renewable supplies, is unlikely to keep wind and solar supplies off the market, despite lagging solar demand in some regions, as costs continue to fall.

“It’s not just this (Ontario) renewables program, it’s the carbon pricing program, the coal phase out, a whole plethora of programs that are squeezing natural gas margins,” said Dave Sawyer, an economist at EnviroEconomics in Ottawa.

 

RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY

Canada’s renewable energy capacity is still expected to grow at a robust 10 per cent per year, the report said, and is expected to supply 69 per cent of overall power generation in the country by 2022.

The IEA, however, expects the growth in hydro power capacity to “slow significantly” beyond 2022, after a raft of new hydro projects come online.

Canadian hydro power capacity is projected to grow 2.2GW in the next five years, mostly due to the commissioning of the Keeyask plant in Manitoba the Muskrat Falls dam in Newfoundland and Labrador and the Romaine 3 and 4 stations in Quebec, in a sector where Canada ranks in the top 10 for hydropower jobs nationwide.

Solar capacity in Canada is expected to grow by 2GW to 4.7GW in 2022, approaching the 5 GW milestone in the near term, mostly due to feed-in-tariff programs in Ontario and renewable energy tenders currently underway in Alberta.

Globally, China and India lead renewable capacity growth projections. China alone is expected to be responsible for 40 per cent of renewable capacity growth in the next five years, while India will double its renewable electricity capacity by 2022. The world is collectively expected to grow renewable electricity capacity by 43 per cent between 2017 and 2022.

 

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AZ goes EV: Rate of electric car ownership relatively high in Arizona

Arizona Electric Vehicle Ownership is surging, led by EV adoption, charging stations growth, state incentives, and local manufacturers; yet rural infrastructure gaps and limited fast-charging plugs remain key barriers to convenient, statewide electrification.

 

Key Points

Arizona Electric Vehicle Ownership shows rising EV adoption and incentives, but rural fast-charging access still lags.

✅ 28,770 EVs registered; sixth per 1,000 residents statewide

✅ 385 fast chargers; 1,448 Level 2 plugs; many not 24/7

✅ Incentives: lower registration, HOV access, utility rebates

 

For a mostly red state, Arizona has a lot of blue-state company when it comes to states ranked by electric vehicle ownership, according to recent government data.

Arizona had 28,770 registered electric vehicles as of June, according to the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center, the seventh-highest number among states. When ownership is measured per 1,000 residents, Arizona inches up a notch to sixth place, with just over four electric vehicles per 1,000 people.

That rate put Arizona just behind Oregon and Colorado and just ahead of Nevada and Vermont. California was in the lead by far, with California's EV and charging lead reflected in 425,300 registered electric vehicles, or one for every 10.7 residents.

Arizona EV enthusiasts welcomed the ranking, which they said they have seen reflected in steady increases in group membership, but said the state can do better, even amid soaring U.S. EV sales this year.

"Arizona is growing by leaps and bounds in major areas, but still struggling out there in the hinterlands," said Jerry Asher, vice president of the Tucson Electric Vehicle Association.

He and others said the biggest challenge in Arizona, as in much of the country, is the lack of readily available charging stations for electric vehicles.

Currently, there are 385 public fast-charging plugs and 1,448 non-fast-charging plugs in the state, where charging networks compete to expand access, said Diane Brown, executive director with the Arizona Public Interest Research Group Education Fund. And many of those "are not available 24 hours a day, often making EV charging less convenient to the public," she said.

And in order for the state to hit 10% EV ownership by 2030, one scenario outlined by Arizona PIRG, the number of charging stations would need to grow significantly.

"According to the Arizona PIRG Education Fund, to support a future in which 10% of Arizona's vehicles are EVs – a conservative target for 2030 – Arizona will need more than 1,098 fast-charging plugs and 14,888 Level 2 plugs," Brown said.

This will require local, state and federal policies, as EVs challenge state power grids, to make "EV charging accessible, affordable, and easy," she said.

But advocates said there are several things working in their favor, even as an EV boom tests charging capacity across the country today. Jim Stack, president of the Phoenix Electric Auto Association, said many of the current plug-ins charging stations are at stores and libraries, places "where you would stop anyway."

"We have a good charging infrastructure and it keeps getting better," Stack said.

One way Asher said Arizona could be more EV-friendly would be to add charging stations at hotels, RV parks and shopping centers. In Tucson, he said, the Culinary Dropout and Jersey Mike's restaurants have already begun offering free electric vehicle charging to customers, Asher said.

While they push for more charging infrastructure, advocates said improving technology and lower vehicle expenses are on their side, as post-2021 electricity trends reshape costs, helping to sway more Arizonans to purchase an electric vehicle in recent years.

"The batteries are getting better and lower in cost as well as longer-lasting," Stack said. He said an EV uses about 50 cents of electricity to cover the same number of miles a gas-burning car gets from a gallon of gas – currently selling for $3.12 a gallon in Arizona, according to AAA.

In addition, the state is offering incentives to electric vehicle buyers.

"In AZ we get reduced registration on electric vehicles," Stack said. "It's about $15 a year compared to $300-700 a year for gas and diesel cars."

Electric vehicle owners also "get 24/7 access to HOV lanes, even with one person," he said. And utilities like Tucson Electric Power offer rebates and incentives for home charging stations, according to a report by the National Conference of State Legislatures, and neighboring New Mexico's EV benefits underscore potential economic gains for the region.

Stack also noted that Arizona is now home to three eclectic vehicle manufacturers: Lucid, which makes cars in Casa Grande, Nikola, which makes trucks in Phoenix and Coolidge, and Electra Meccanica, which plans to build the three-wheeled SOLO commuter in Mesa.

"We get clear skies. No oil changes, no muffler work, no transmission, faster acceleration. No smog or smog tests," Stack said. "It's priceless."

 

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California's Looming Green New Car Wreck

California Gas Car Ban 2035 signals a shift to electric vehicles, raising grid reliability concerns, charging demand, and renewable energy challenges across solar, wind, and storage, amid rolling blackouts and carbon-free power mandates.

 

Key Points

An order ending new gasoline car sales by 2035 in California, accelerating EV adoption and pressuring the power grid.

✅ 25% EV fleet could add 232.5 GWh/day charging demand by 2040

✅ Solar and wind intermittency strains nighttime home charging

✅ Grid upgrades, storage, and load management become critical

 

On September 23, California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an executive order that will ban the sale of gasoline-powered cars in the Golden State by 2035. Ignoring the hard lessons of this past summer, when California’s solar- and wind-reliant electric grid underwent rolling blackouts, Newsom now adds a huge new burden to the grid in the form of electric vehicle charging, underscoring the need for a much bigger grid to meet demand. If California officials follow through and enforce Newsom’s order, the result will be a green new car version of a train wreck.

In parallel, the state is moving on fleet transitions, allowing electric school buses only from 2035, which further adds to charging demand.

Let’s run some numbers. According to Statista, there are more than 15 million vehicles registered in California. Per the U.S. Department of Energy, there are only 256,000 electric vehicles registered in the state—just 1.7 percent of all vehicles, a share that will challenge state power grids as adoption grows.

Using the Tesla Model3 mid-range model as a baseline for an electric car, you’ll need to use about 62 kilowatt-hours (KWh) of power to charge a standard range Model 3 battery to full capacity. It will take about eight hours to fully charge it at home using the standard Tesla NEMA 14-50 charger, a routine that has prompted questions about whether EVs could crash the grid by households statewide.

Now, let’s assume that by 2040, five years after the mandate takes effect, also assuming no major increase in the number of total vehicles, California manages to increase the number of electric vehicles to 25 percent of the total vehicles in the state. If each vehicle needs an average of 62 kilowatt-hours for a full charge, then the total charging power required daily would be 3,750,000 x 62 KWh, which equals 232,500,000 KWh, or 232.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) daily.

Utility-scale California solar electric generation according to the energy.ca.gov puts utility-scale solar generation at about 30,000 GWh per year currently. Divide that by 365 days and we get 80 GWh/day, predicted to double, to 160 GWh /day. Even if we add homeowner rooftop solar, and falling prices for solar and home batteries in the wake of blackouts, about half the utility-scale, at 40 GWh/day we come up to 200 GW/h per day, still 32 GWh short of the charging demand for a 25% electric car fleet in California. Even if rooftop solar doubles by 2040, we are at break-even, with 240GWh of production during the day.

Bottom-line, under the most optimistic best-case scenario, where solar operates at 100% of rated capacity (it seldom does), it would take every single bit of the 2040 utility-scale solar and rooftop capacity just to charge the cars during the day. That leaves nothing left for air conditioning, appliances, lighting, etc. It would all go to charging the cars, and that’s during the day when solar production peaks.

But there’s a much bigger problem. Even a grade-schooler can figure out that solar energy doesn’t work at night, when most electric vehicles will be charging at homes, even as some officials look to EVs for grid stability through vehicle-to-grid strategies. So, where does Newsom think all this extra electric power is going to come from?

The wind? Wind power lags even further behind solar power. According to energy.gov, as of 2019, California had installed just 5.9 gigawatts of wind power generating capacity. This is because you need large amounts of land for wind farms, and not every place is suitable for high-return wind power.

In 2040, to keep the lights on with 25 percent of all vehicles in California being electric, while maintaining the state mandate requiring all the state’s electricity to come from carbon-free resources by 2045, California would have to blanket the entire state with solar and wind farms. It’s an impossible scenario. And the problem of intermittent power and rolling blackouts would become much worse.

And it isn’t just me saying this. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) agrees. In a letter sent by EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler to Gavin Newsom on September 28, Wheeler wrote:

“[It] begs the question of how you expect to run an electric car fleet that will come with significant increases in electricity demand, when you can’t even keep the lights on today.

“The truth is that if the state were driving 100 percent electric vehicles today, the state would be dealing with even worse power shortages than the ones that have already caused a series of otherwise preventable environmental and public health consequences.”


California’s green new car wreck looms large on the horizon. Worse, can you imagine electric car owners’ nightmares when California power companies shut off the power for safety reasons during fire season? Try evacuating in your electric car when it has a dead battery.

Gavin Newsom’s “no more gasoline cars sold by 2035” edict isn’t practical, sustainable, or sensible, much like the 2035 EV mandate in Canada has been criticized by some observers. But isn’t that what we’ve come to expect with any and all of these Green New Deal-lite schemes?

 

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