The Pickens Plan leans heavily on government

By Financial Post


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“A fool with a plan can outsmart a genius with no plan,” says T. Boone Pickens, the billionaire energy tycoon. Pickens has a plan but he’s no fool. And those he seeks to outsmart — government officials — are no geniuses.

The consequences for the rest of us can be profound, especially when the plan at issue is a colossus of epic proportions.

The Pickens Plan, touted by him to save the United States from calamity, has two wildly ambitious steps. Step one: The United States should construct a mammoth north-south electricity transmission corridor from Texas through the Great Plains states to Canada.

Wind turbines in Texas and throughout the corridor would then generate electricity, displacing the natural gas now used to generate electricity. Step two: The United States and Canada should run trucks and automobiles on the natural gas that has been saved, displacing gasoline.

PickensÂ’ two-step has great appeal to those on the left side of the political spectrum because, as he argues, his plan would slash greenhouse-gas emissions. And it has great appeal to those on the right because, as he also argues, his plan will reduce AmericaÂ’s dependence on oil imported from enemy countries. The other great appeal in the Pickens Plan, rarely mentioned, is to Pickens personally.

Among other wind schemes, Pickens planned a 400,000-acre wind farm in the Texas Panhandle, the worldÂ’s largest by far. And Pickens, long one of AmericaÂ’s major natural-gas developers, has now made one of the biggest bets of his career on his Clean Energy Fuels Corporation, which builds natural-gas fuelling stations for vehicles.

Men without imagination consider the Pickens Plan to be wildly implausible. For starters, what are the odds of converting cars to natural gas cars when gasoline dominates and electric vehicles are in fashion? With the exception of Honda and its Civic GX, pictured below, no major automaker manufactures a natural-gas car, and even if some did, these cars couldn’t get refuelled — vanishingly few gas stations offer fill-ups of natural gas.

There are also performance reasons to shy away from natural-gas vehicles — they require larger gas tanks, robbing cars of half their trunk space; even with a larger tank, they require fill-ups almost twice as often; and they can explode. Little wonder that fewer than one-tenth of 1% of the 250 million vehicles on the road run on natural gas.

Pickens does not lack for imagination. He imagined that natural-gas vehicles at half the cost of the $25,000 Honda Civic GX would spark demand. To turn fantasy to reality, Pickens approached those ablest to get the job done — not the top designers and engineers at Honda and other manufacturers but the top U.S. lawmakers. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, Orrin Hatch of Utah, joined by Pickens himself, announced legislation to lower the cost of driving a natural gas vehicle.

The legislation would cover up to $12,500 for passenger cars and light trucks and $64,000 for heavier vehicles. Even better, this bill doesn’t stop at halving the cost of buying a natural gas vehicle. It also lowers the cost of buying natural gas for vehicular use. And it expands and extends tax incentives for the installation of Pickens-style refuelling stations — builders of natural-gas refuelling stations will be able to receive up to $100,000 per station.

All this and more — coupled with similar legislation recently introduced in the House of Representatives — is a great improvement on previous subsidies that the U.S. government passed in 2005 to help secure Pickens’ vision of a sound energy policy for America.

Pickens personifies the never-say-die American entrepreneurial genius in working the political system.

Just months earlier, in November 2008, Pickens and his Clean Energy Fuels Corporation had suffered a disappointing setback when California voters rejected Proposition 10, a referendum that his firm helped write, and then backed through a multi-million dollar campaign contribution. Had it succeeded, Prop 10 would have provided close to $10-billion in alternative-energy rebates and incentives, almost all of it to the exclusive benefit of PickensÂ’ company.

No quitter, Pickens immediately turned his lobbying talents to the U.S. Congress. “If you’re on the right side of the issue, just keep driving until you hear glass breaking. Don’t quit,” he likes to say.

Step two in Pickens plan — creating the infrastructure for natural-gas vehicles — now seems well in hand. Step one — his bid to make the wind blow for him — is next on his agenda. Count on him to again work the system and to employ once more a principle that has stood him in good stead over one of the most storied careers in U.S. corporate history: “Make sure as many people as possible have a stake in the game.”

By enabling Republican and Democratic lawmakers in their energy independence and global warming causes, he gives them a stake in a game he has every intention of winning.

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Operating record for Bruce Power as Covid-19 support Council announced

Bruce Power Life-Extension Programme advances Ontario nuclear capacity through CANDU Major Component Replacement, reliable operation milestones, supply chain retooling for COVID-19 recovery, PPE production, ventilator projects, and medical isotope supply security.

 

Key Points

A program to refurbish CANDU reactors, extend asset life, and mobilize Ontario nuclear supply chain and isotopes.

✅ Extends CANDU units via Major Component Replacement

✅ Supports COVID-19 recovery with PPE and ventilator projects

✅ Boosts Ontario energy reliability and medical isotopes

 

Canada’s Bruce Power said on 1 May that unit 1 at the Bruce nuclear power plant had set a record of 624 consecutive days of reliable operation – the longest since it was returned to service in 2012.

It exceeded Bruce 8’s run of 623 consecutive days between May 2016 and February 2018. Bruce 1, a Candu reactor, was put into service in 1977. It was shut down and mothballed by the former Ontario Hydro in 1997, and was refurbished and returned to service in 2012 by Bruce Power.

Bruce units 3 and 4 were restarted in 2003 and 2004. They are part of Bruce Power’s Life-Extension Programme, and future planning such as Bruce C project exploration continues across the fleet, with units 3 and 4 to undergo Major Component Replacement (MCR) Projects from 2023-28, adding about 30 years of life to the reactors.

The refurbishment of Bruce 6 has begun and will be followed by MCR Unit 3 which is scheduled to begin in 2023. Nuclear power accounts for more than 60% of Ontario’s supply, with Bruce Power providing more than 30%   of the province’s electricity.

Set up of Covid recovery council
On 30 April, Bruce Power announced the establishment of the Bruce Power Retooling and Economic Recovery Council to leverage the province’s nuclear supply chain to support Ontario’s fight against Covid-19 and to help aid economic recovery.

Bruce Power’s life extension programme is Canada’s second largest infrastructure project and largest private sector infrastructure programme. It is creating 22,000 direct and indirect jobs, delivering economic benefits that are expected to contribute $4 billion to Ontario’s GDP and $8-$11 billion to Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP), Bruce Power said.

“With 90% of the investment in manufactured goods and services coming from 480 companies in Ontario and other provinces, including recent manufacturing contracts with key suppliers, we can harness these capabilities in the fight against Covid-19, and help drive our economic recovery,” the company said.

“An innovative and dynamic nuclear supply chain is more important than ever in meeting this new challenge while successfully implementing our mission of providing clean, reliable, flexible, low-cost nuclear energy and a global supply of medical isotopes,” said Bruce Power president and CEO Mike Rencheck. “We are mobilising a great team with our extended supply chain, which spans the province, to assist in the fight against Covid-19 and to help drive our economic recovery in the future.”

Greg Rickford, the Minister of Energy, Mines, Northern Development, and Minister of Indigenous Affairs, said the launch of the council is consistent with Ontario’s focus to fight Covid-19 as a top priority and a look ahead to economic recovery, and initiatives like Pickering life extensions supporting long-term system reliability.

The creation of the Council was announced during a live event on Bruce Power's Facebook page, in which Rencheck was joined by Associate Minister of Energy Bill Walker and Rocco Rossi, the president and CEO of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce.

Walker reiterated the Government of Ontario’s commitment to nuclear power over the long term and to the life extension programme, including the Pickering B refurbishment as part of this strategy.

The Council, which will be formed for the duration of the pandemic and will include of all of Bruce Power’s Ontario-based suppliers, will focus on the continued retooling of the supply chain to meet front-line Covid-19 needs to contribute to the province’s economy recovery in the short, medium and long term.

New uses for nuclear medical applications will be explored, including isotopes for the sterilisation of medical equipment and long-term supply security.

The supply chain will be leveraged to support the health care sector through the rapid production of medical Personal Protection Equipment for front line-workers and large-scale PPE donations to communities as well as participation in pilot projects to make ventilators within the Bruce Power supply chain or help identify technology to better utilise existing ventilators;

“Buy Local” tools and approaches will be emphasised to ensure small businesses are utilised fully in communities where nuclear suppliers are located.

The production of hand sanitiser and other cleaning products will be facilitated for distribution to communities.

 

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How ‘Virtual Power Plants’ Will Change The Future Of Electricity

Virtual Power Plants orchestrate distributed energy resources like rooftop solar, home batteries, and EVs to deliver grid services, demand response, peak shaving, and resilience, lowering costs while enhancing reliability across wholesale markets and local networks.

 

Key Points

Virtual Power Plants aggregate solar and batteries to provide grid services, cut peak costs, and boost reliability.

✅ Aggregates DERs via cloud to bid into wholesale markets

✅ Reduces peak demand, defers costly grid upgrades

✅ Enhances resilience vs outages, cyber risks, and wildfires

 

If “virtual” meetings can allow companies to gather without anyone being in the office, then remotely distributed solar panels and batteries can harness energy and act as “virtual power plants.” It is simply the orchestration of millions of dispersed assets within a smarter electricity infrastructure to manage the supply of electricity — power that can be redirected back to the grid and distributed to homes and businesses. 

The ultimate goal is to revamp the energy landscape, making it cleaner and more reliable. By using onsite generation such as rooftop solar and smart solar inverters in combination with battery storage, those services can reduce the network’s overall cost by deferring expensive infrastructure upgrades and by reducing the need to purchase cost-prohibitive peak power. 

“We expect virtual power plants, including aggregated home solar and batteries, to become more common and more impactful for energy consumers throughout the country in the coming years,” says Michael Sachdev, chief product officer for Sunrun Inc., a rooftop solar company, in an interview. “The growth of home solar and batteries will be most apparent in places where households have an immediate need for backup power, as they do in California, where grid reliability pressures have led utilities to turn off the electricity to reduce wildfire risk.”

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Home battery adoption, such as Tesla Powerwall systems, is becoming commonplace in Hawaii and in New England, he adds, because those distributed assets are improving the efficiency of the electrical network. It is a trend that is reshaping the country’s energy generation and delivery system by relying more on clean onsite generation and less on fossil fuels.

Sunrun has recently formed a business partnership with AutoGrid, which will manage Sunrun’s fleet of rechargeable batteries. It is a cloud-based system that allows Sunrun to work with utilities to dispatch its “storage fleet” to optimize the economic results. AutoGrid compiles the data and makes AI-driven forecasts that enable it to pinpoint potential trouble spots. 

But a distributed energy system, or a virtual power plant, would have 200,000 subsystems. Or, 200,000 5 kilowatt batteries would be the equivalent of one power plant that has a capacity of 1,000 megawatts. 

“A virtual power plant acts as a generator,” says Amit Narayan, chief executive officer of AutoGrid, in an interview. “It is one of the top five innovations of the decade. If you look at Sunrun, 60% of every solar system it sells in the Bay Area is getting attached to a battery. The value proposition comes when you can aggregate these batteries and market them as a generation unit. The pool of individual assets may improve over time. But when you add these up, it is better than a large-scale plant. It is like going from mainframe computers to laptops.”

The AutoGrid executive goes on to say that centralized systems are less reliable than distributed resources. While one battery could falter, 200,000 of them that operate from remote locations will prove to be more durable — able to withstand cyber attacks and wildfires. Sunrun’s Sachdev adds that the ability to store energy in batteries, as seen in California’s expanding grid-scale battery use supporting reliability, and to move it to the grid on demand creates value not just for homes and businesses but also for the network as a whole.

The good news is that the trend worldwide is to make it easier for smaller distributed assets, including energy storage for microgrids that support local resilience, to get the same regulatory treatment as power plants. System operators have been obligated to call up those power supplies that are the most cost-effective and that can be easily dispatched. But now regulators are giving virtual power plants comprised of solar and batteries the same treatment. 

In the United States, for example, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued an order in 2018 that allows storage resources to participate in wholesale markets — where electricity is bought directly from generators before selling that power to homes and businesses. Under the ruling, virtual power plants are paid the same as traditional power suppliers. A federal appeals court this month upheld the commission’s order, saying that it had the right to ensure “technological advances in energy storage are fully realized in the marketplace.” 

“In the past, we have used back-up generators,” notes AutoGrid’s Narayan. “As we move toward more automation, we are opening up the market to small assets such as battery storage and electric vehicles. As we deploy more of these assets, there will be increasing opportunities for virtual power plants.” 

Virtual power plants have the potential to change the energy horizon by harnessing locally-produced solar power and redistributing that to where it is most needed — all facilitated by cloud-based software that has a full panoramic view. At the same time, those smaller distributed assets can add more reliability and give consumers greater peace-of-mind — a dynamic that does, indeed, beef-up America’s generation and delivery network.

 

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Court reinstates constitutional challenge to Ontario's hefty ‘global adjustment’ electricity charge

Ontario Global Adjustment Charge faces constitutional scrutiny as a regulatory charge vs tax; Court of Appeal revives case over electricity pricing, feed-in tariff contracts, IESO policy, and hydro rate impacts on consumers and industry.

 

Key Points

A provincial electricity fee funding generator contracts, now central to a court fight over tax versus regulatory charge.

✅ Funds gap between market price and contracted generator rates

✅ At issue: regulatory charge vs tax under constitutional law

✅ Linked to feed-in tariff, IESO policy, and hydro rate hikes

 

Ontario’s court of appeal has decided that a constitutional challenge of a steep provincial electricity charge should get its day in court, overturning a lower-court judgment that had dismissed the legal bid.

Hamilton, Ont.-based National Steel Car Ltd. launched the challenge in 2017, saying Ontario’s so-called global adjustment charge was unconstitutional because it is a tax — not a valid regulatory charge — that was not passed by the legislature.

The global adjustment funds the difference between the province’s hourly electricity price and the price guaranteed under contracts to power generators. It is “the component that covers the cost of building new electricity infrastructure in the province, maintaining existing resources, as well as providing conservation and demand management programs,” the province’s Independent Electricity System Operator says.

However, the global adjustment now makes up most of the commodity portion of a household electricity bill, and its costs have ballooned, as regulators elsewhere consider a proposed 14% rate hike in Nova Scotia.

Ontario’s auditor general said in 2015 that global adjustment fees had increased from $650 million in 2006 to more than $7 billion in 2014. She added that consumers would pay $133 billion in global adjustment fees from 2015 to 2032, after having already paid $37 billion from 2006 to 2014.

National Steel Car, which manufactures steel rail cars and faces high electricity rates that hurt Ontario factories, said its global adjustment costs went from $207,260 in 2008 to almost $3.4 million in 2016, according to an Ontario Court of Appeal decision released on Wednesday.

The company claimed the global adjustment was a tax because one of its components funds electricity procurement contracts under a “feed-in tariff” program, or FIT, which National Steel Car called “the main culprit behind the dramatic price increases for electricity,” the decision said.

Ontario’s auditor general said the FIT program “paid excessive prices to renewable energy generators.” The program has been ended, but contracts awarded under it remain in place.


National Steel Car claimed the FIT program “was actually designed to accomplish social goals unrelated to the generation of electricity,” such as helping rural and indigenous communities, and was therefore a tax trying to help with policy goals.

“The appellant submits that the Policy Goals can be achieved by Ontario in several ways, just not through the electricity pricing formula,” the decision said.

National Steel Car also argued the global adjustment violated a provincial law that requires the government to hold a referendum for new taxes.

“The appellant’s principal claim is that the Global Adjustment was a ‘colourable attempt to disguise a tax as a regulatory charge with the purpose of funding the costs of the Policy Goals,’” the decision said. “The appellant pressed this argument before the motion judge and before this court. The motion judge did not directly or adequately address it.”

The Ontario government applied to have the challenge thrown out for having “no reasonable cause of action,” and a Superior Court judge did so in 2018, saying the global adjustment is not a tax.

National Steel Car appealed the decision, and the decision published Wednesday allowed the appeal, set aside the lower-court judgment, and will send the case back to Superior Court, where it could get a full hearing.

“The appellant’s claim is sufficiently plausible on the evidentiary record it put forward that the applications should not have been dismissed on a pleadings motion before the development of a full record,” wrote Justice Peter D. Lauwers. “It is not plain, obvious and beyond doubt that the Global Adjustment, and particularly the challenged component, is properly characterized as a valid regulatory charge and not as an impermissible tax.”

Jerome Morse of Morse Shannon LLP, one of National Steel Car’s lawyers, said the Ontario government would now have 60 days to decide whether to seek permission to appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada.

“What the court has basically said is, ‘this is a plausible argument, here are the reasons why it’s plausible, there was no answer to this,’” Morse told the Financial Post.

Ontario and the IESO had supported the lower-court decision, but there has been a change in government since the challenge was first launched, with Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford replacing the Liberals and Kathleen Wynne in power. The Liberals had launched a plan aimed at addressing hydro costs before losing in a 2018 election, the main thrust of which had been to refinance global adjustment costs.

Wednesday’s decision states that “Ontario’s counsel advised the court that the current Ontario government ‘does not agree with the former government’s electricity procurement policy (since-repealed).’

“The government’s view is that: ‘The solution does not lie with the courts, but instead in the political arena with political actors,’” it adds.

A spokesperson for Ontario Energy Minister Greg Rickford said in an email that they are reviewing the decision but “as this matter is in the appeal period, it would be inappropriate to comment.” 

Ontario had also requested to stay the matter so a regulator, the Ontario Energy Board, could weigh in, while the Nova Scotia regulator approved a 14% hike in a separate case.

“However, Ontario only sought this relief from the motion judge in the alternative, and given the motion judge’s ultimate decision, she did not rule on the stay,” Thursday’s decision said. “It would be premature for this court to rule on the issue, although it seems incongruous for Ontario to argue that the Superior Court is the convenient forum in which to seek to dismiss the applications as meritless, but that it is not the convenient forum for assessing the merits of the applications.”

National Steel Car’s challenge bears a resemblance to the constitutional challenges launched by Ontario and other provinces over the federal government’s carbon tax, but Justice Lauwers wrote “that the federal legislative scheme under consideration in those cases is distinctly different from the legislation at issue in this appeal.”

“Nothing in those decisions impacts this appeal,” the judge added.
 

 

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Schneider Electric Aids in Notre Dame Restoration

Schneider Electric Notre Dame Restoration delivers energy management, automation, and modern electrical infrastructure, boosting safety, sustainability, smart monitoring, efficient lighting, and power distribution to protect heritage while reducing consumption and future-proofing the cathedral.

 

Key Points

Schneider Electric upgrades Notre Dame's electrical systems to enhance safety, sustainability, automation, and efficiency.

✅ Energy management modernizes power distribution and lighting.

✅ Advanced safety and monitoring reduce fire risk.

✅ Sustainable automation lowers consumption while preserving heritage.

 

Schneider Electric, a global leader in energy management and automation, exemplified by an AI and technology partnership in Paris, has played a significant role in the restoration of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris following the devastating fire of April 2019. The company has contributed by providing its expertise in electrical systems, ensuring the cathedral’s systems are not only restored but also modernized with energy-efficient solutions. Schneider Electric’s technology has been crucial in rebuilding the cathedral's electrical infrastructure, focusing on safety, sustainability, and preserving the iconic monument for future generations.

The fire, which caused widespread damage to the cathedral’s roof and spire, raised concerns about both the physical restoration and the integrity of the building’s systems, including rising ransomware threats to power grids that affect critical infrastructure. As Notre Dame is one of the most visited and revered landmarks in the world, the restoration process required advanced technical solutions to meet the cathedral’s complex needs while maintaining its historical authenticity.

Schneider Electric's contribution to the project has been multifaceted. The company’s solutions helped restore the electrical systems in a way that reduces the energy consumption of the building, improving sustainability without compromising the historical essence of the structure. Schneider Electric worked closely with architects, engineers, and restoration experts to implement innovative energy management technologies, such as advanced power distribution, lighting systems, and monitoring solutions like synchrophasor technology for enhanced grid visibility.

In addition to energy-efficient solutions, Schneider Electric’s efforts in safety and automation have been vital. The company provided expertise in reinforcing the electrical safety systems, leveraging digital transformer stations to improve reliability, which is especially important in a building as old as Notre Dame. The fire highlighted the importance of modern safety systems, and Schneider Electric’s technology ensures that the restored cathedral will be better protected in the future, with advanced monitoring systems capable of detecting any anomalies or potential hazards.

Schneider Electric’s involvement also aligns with its broader commitment to sustainability and energy efficiency, echoing calls to invest in a smarter electricity infrastructure across regions. By modernizing Notre Dame’s electrical infrastructure, the company is helping the cathedral move toward a more sustainable future. Their work represents the fusion of cutting-edge technology and historic preservation, ensuring that the building remains an iconic symbol of French culture while adapting to the modern world.

The restoration of Notre Dame is a massive undertaking, with thousands of workers and experts from various fields involved in its revival. Schneider Electric’s contribution highlights the importance of collaboration between heritage conservationists and modern technology companies, and reflects developments in HVDC technology in Europe that are shaping modern grids. The integration of such advanced energy management solutions allows the cathedral to function efficiently while maintaining the integrity of its architectural design and historical significance.

As the restoration progresses, Schneider Electric’s efforts will continue to support the cathedral’s recovery, with the ultimate goal of reopening Notre Dame to the public, reflecting best practices in planning for growing electricity needs in major cities. Their role in this project not only contributes to the physical restoration of the building but also ensures that it remains a symbol of resilience, cultural heritage, and the importance of combining tradition with innovation.

Schneider Electric’s involvement in the restoration of Notre Dame Cathedral is a testament to how modern technology can be seamlessly integrated into historic preservation efforts. The company’s work in enhancing the cathedral’s electrical systems has been crucial in restoring and future-proofing the monument, ensuring that it will continue to be a beacon of French heritage for generations to come.

 

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Florida says no to $400M in federal solar energy incentives

Florida Solar for All Opt-Out highlights Gov. DeSantis rejecting EPA grant funds under the Inflation Reduction Act, limiting low-income households' access to solar panels, clean energy programs, and promised electricity savings across disadvantaged communities.

 

Key Points

Florida Solar for All Opt-Out is the state declining EPA grants, restricting low-income access to solar energy savings.

✅ EPA grant under IRA aimed at low-income solar

✅ Estimated 20% electricity bill savings missed

✅ Florida lacks PPAs and renewable standards

 

Florida has passed up on up to $400 million in federal money that would have helped low-income households install solar panels.

A $7 billion grant “competition” to promote clean energy in disadvantaged communities by providing low-income households with access to affordable solar energy was introduced by President Joe Biden earlier this year, and despite his climate law's mixed results in practice, none of that money will reach Florida households.

The Environmental Protection Agency announced the competition in June as part of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. However, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has decided to pass on the $400 million up for grabs by choosing to opt out of the opportunity.

Inflation Reduction Act:What is the Inflation Reduction Act? Everything to know about one of Biden's big laws

The program would have helped Florida households reduce their electricity costs by a minimum of 20% during a key time when Floridians are leaving in droves due to a rising cost of living associated with soaring insurance costs, inflation, and proposed FPL rate hikes statewide.

Florida was one of six other states that chose not to apply for the money.

President Joe Biden announced a $7 billion “competition” to promote clean energy in disadvantaged communities.

The opportunity, named “Solar for All,” was announced by the EPA in June and promised to provide up to $7 billion in grants to states, territories, tribal governments, municipalities, and nonprofits to expand the number of low-income and disadvantaged communities primed for residential solar investment — enabling millions of low-income households to access affordable, resilient and clean solar energy.

The grant is intended to help lower energy costs for families, create jobs and help reduce greenhouse effects that accelerate global climate change by providing financial support and incentives to communities that were previously locked out of investments.


How much money would Floridians save under the ‘Solar for All’ solar panel grant?

The program aims to reduce household electricity costs by at least 20%. Florida households paid an average of $154.51 per month for electricity in 2022, just over 14% of the national average of $135.25, and debates over hurricane rate surcharges continue to shape customer bills, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A 20% savings would drop those bills down to around $123 per month.

On the campaign trail, DeSantis has pledged to unravel Biden’s green energy agenda if elected president, amid escalating solar policy battles nationwide, slamming the Inflation Reduction Act and what he called “a concerted effort to ramp up the fear when it comes to things like global warming and climate change.”

His energy agenda includes ending Biden’s subsidies for electric cars while pushing policies that he says would ramp up domestic oil production.

“The subsidies are going to drive inflation higher,” DeSantis said at an event in September. “It’s not going to help with interest rates, and it is certainly not going to help with our unsustainable debt levels.”

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DeSantis’ plan to curb clean energy usage in Florida seems to be at odds with the state as a whole, and the region's evolving strategy for the South underscores why it has been ranked among the top three states to go solar since 2019, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).

SEIA also shows, however, that Florida lags behind many other states when it comes to solar policies, as utilities tilt the solar market in ways that influence policy outcomes statewide. Florida, for instance, has no renewable energy standards, which are used to increase the use of renewable energy sources for electricity by requiring or encouraging suppliers to provide customers with a stated minimum share of electricity from eligible renewable resources, according to the EIA.

Power purchase agreements, which can help lower the cost of going solar through third-party financing, are also not allowed in Florida, with court rulings on monopolies reinforcing the existing market structure. And there have been other policies implemented that drove other potential solar investments to other states.

 

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EIA expects solar and wind to be larger sources of U.S. electricity generation this summer

US Summer Electricity Outlook 2022 projects rising renewable energy generation as utility-scale solar and wind capacity additions surge, while coal declines and natural gas shifts amid higher fuel prices and regional supply constraints.

 

Key Points

An EIA forecast of summer 2022 power: more solar and wind, less coal, and shifting gas use amid higher fuel prices.

✅ Solar +10 million MWh; wind +8 million MWh vs last summer

✅ Coal generation -20 million MWh amid supply constraints, retirements

✅ Gas prices near $9/MMBtu; slight national gen decline

 

In our Summer Electricity Outlook, a supplement to our May 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect the largest increases in U.S. electric power sector generation this summer will come from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar generation. These increases are the result of new capacity additions. We forecast utility-scale solar generation between June and August 2022 will grow by 10 million megawatthours (MWh) compared with the same period last summer, and wind generation will grow by 8 million MWh. Forecast generation from coal and natural gas declines by 26 million MWh this summer, although natural gas generation could increase in some electricity markets where coal supplies are constrained.

For recent context, overall U.S. power generation in January rose 9.3% year over year, the EIA reports.

Wind and solar power electric-generating capacity has been growing steadily in recent years. By the start of June, we estimate the U.S. electric power sector will have 65 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar-generating capacity, a 31% increase in solar capacity since June 2021. Almost one-third of this new solar capacity will be built in the Texas electricity market. The electric power sector will also have an estimated 138 GW of wind capacity online this June, which is a 12% increase from last June.

Along with growth in renewables capacity, we expect that an additional 6 GW of new natural gas combined-cycle generating capacity will come online by June 2022, an increase of 2% from last summer. Despite this increase in capacity, we expect natural gas-fired electricity generation at the national level will be slightly (1.3%) lower than last summer.

We forecast the price of natural gas delivered to electric generators will average nearly $9 per million British thermal units between June and August 2022, which would be more than double the average price last summer. The higher expected natural gas prices and growth in renewable generation will likely lead to less natural gas-fired generation in some regions of the country.

In contrast to renewables and natural gas, the electricity industry has been steadily retiring coal-fired power plants over the past decade. Between June 2021 and June 2022, the electric power sector will have retired 6 GW (2%) of U.S. coal-fired generating capacity.

In previous years, higher natural gas prices would have resulted in more coal-fired electricity generation across the fleet. However, coal-fired power plants have been limited in their ability to replenish their historically low inventories in recent months as a result of mine closures, rail capacity constraints, and labor market tightness. These coal supply constraints, along with continued retirement of generating capacity, contribute to our forecast that U.S. coal-fired generation will decline by 20 million MWh (7%) this summer. In some regions of the country, these coal supply constraints may lead to increased natural gas-fired electricity generation despite higher natural gas prices.
 

 

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