California unveils ambitious climate plan

By Reuters


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California took a major step forward on its global warming fight by unveiling an ambitious plan for clean cars, renewable energy and stringent caps on big polluting industries.

The plan, which aims to reduce pollutants by 10 percent from current levels by 2020 while driving investment in new energy technologies that will benefit the state's economy, is the most comprehensive yet by any U.S. state.

It could serve as a blueprint not only for the rest of the United States, but also for other big polluting nations like China and India, planners and environmental groups said.

"This is of tremendous importance, not only for California," Mary Nichols, chairman of the influential California Air Resources Board (CARB), said on a conference call with reporters. "By taking action here... we will be able to help motivate other states in our nation."

At a meeting in Sacramento, CARB staff presented a series of proposals that would become law in 2012, with some measures going into effect two years earlier.

The initiatives include implementing a cap-and-trade program on carbon dioxide emissions that will require buildings and appliances to use less energy, oil companies to make cleaner fuels, and utilities to provide a third of their energy from renewable sources like wind and solar power.

The program will also encourage development of walkable cities with shorter commutes, high-speed rail as an alternative to air travel, and will require more hybrid and hydrogen-fueled vehicles both to move goods and people, CARB said.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose landmark 2006 law aimed at reducing the state's greenhouse gas emissions prompted CARB's plan, supports the program, Nichols said.

CARB said the measures will benefit residents of the most populous U.S. state by reducing pollution-related illnesses such as asthma and bronchitis, and by stimulating investments in new energy technologies that will create jobs.

Nichols declined to speculate on what the program will cost for individual business sectors such as the utility industry, but said the initiatives overall should benefit the state's economy by about 1 percent starting in 2020.

"Since most of the measures in this plan are designed to make our state more energy-efficient, we believe we can predict with confidence that this is a plan that works to the benefit of the California economy," Nichols said.

CARB estimated that more efficient appliances and homes would save households, on average, about $200 a year. Meanwhile cleaner cars, while more expensive to buy, are expected to save drivers about $30 a month in fuel.

Environmental advocates, most of whom work closely with CARB, applauded the plan. Erin Rogers, a California coordinator for environmental group the Union of Concerned Scientists, called the program "ambitious, visionary and far-reaching."

"Unless we can lead the way and show not only the nation but the world how this can be done, we face some very serious global warming impacts in California," Rogers added.

California has long been a leader in the United States on matters of climate change, and CARB said its plan will reduce annual emissions per capita to 10 tons of carbon dioxide per person by 2020 from 14 tons per person currently.

That means the state's emissions will be about 30 percent below what they would have been without the plan, Nichols said.

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Ukraine Prepares for Winter Amid Energy Challenges

Ukraine Winter Energy Resilience focuses on energy security, grid repairs, renewable power, EU support, heating reliability, electricity imports, and conservation measures to stabilize infrastructure and protect households amid conflict and severe cold.

 

Key Points

A strategy to secure heat and power via repairs, renewables, imports, and conservation during wartime winter.

✅ Grid repairs and hardening of power plants and transmission lines

✅ Diversified supply: renewables, electricity imports, fuel reserves

✅ Public conservation to cut peak demand and safeguard essential services

 

As winter approaches, Ukraine is bracing for a challenging season, especially in the energy sector amid global energy instability and price pressures, which has been heavily impacted by the ongoing conflict with Russia. With the weather forecast predicting colder temperatures, the Ukrainian government is ramping up efforts to secure energy supplies and bolster infrastructure, aiming to ensure that citizens have access to heating and electricity during the harsh months ahead.

The Energy Landscape in Ukraine

The conflict has severely disrupted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leading to widespread damage and inefficiencies. Key facilities, including power plants and transmission lines, have been targeted amid energy ceasefire violations reported by both sides, resulting in significant energy shortages. As a response, the government has implemented a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the energy sector, ensuring that the nation can withstand the winter months.

One of the primary strategies has been the repair and reinforcement of energy infrastructure. Officials have prioritized critical facilities that are essential for electricity generation and distribution. Emergency repairs and upgrades are being carried out to restore functionality and improve resilience against potential attacks.

In addition to repairing existing infrastructure, Ukraine is actively seeking to diversify its energy sources. This includes increasing reliance on renewable energy, such as wind and solar, which can be less susceptible to disruption. The shift toward renewables not only enhances energy security and supports moving away from fossil fuels in line with Ukraine's long-term environmental goals.

International Support and Collaboration

Ukraine's challenges have not gone unnoticed on the international stage. Countries and organizations around the world have pledged energy security support to help Ukraine fortify its energy sector. This assistance includes financial aid, technical expertise, and the provision of materials needed for infrastructure repairs.

The European Union, in particular, has been a key ally, providing both immediate and long-term support to Ukraine's energy efforts. The EU's commitment to helping Ukraine transition to a more sustainable energy model, including steps toward ENTSO-E synchronization to bolster grid stability, is reflected in various initiatives aimed at increasing energy efficiency and integrating renewable sources.

Furthermore, international organizations have mobilized resources to assist in the restoration of damaged infrastructure. This collaboration not only enhances Ukraine's energy capabilities but also strengthens ties with global partners, fostering a sense of solidarity amidst the ongoing conflict.

Preparing for Winter Challenges

As temperatures drop, the demand for heating will surge, putting additional pressure on an already strained energy system. To address this, the Ukrainian government is urging citizens to prepare for potential shortages. Officials are promoting energy conservation measures, encouraging households to reduce consumption and use energy more efficiently.

Public awareness campaigns are being launched to educate citizens about the importance of energy saving and the steps they can take to minimize their energy use and prevent outages during peak demand. These initiatives aim to foster a collective sense of responsibility as the nation braces for the winter ahead.

In addition to conservation efforts, the government is exploring alternative energy supplies. This includes negotiating with neighboring countries for electricity imports and enhancing domestic production where feasible. By securing a diverse range of energy sources, Ukraine aims to mitigate the risk of shortages and ensure that essential services remain operational.

The Role of Resilience and Innovation

Despite the challenges, the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their commitment to overcoming adversity shine through. Communities are coming together to support one another, sharing resources and information to help navigate the difficulties of winter.

Innovative solutions are also emerging as part of the response to the energy crisis. Local initiatives aimed at promoting energy efficiency and the use of alternative energy sources are gaining traction. From community-led solar projects to energy-efficient building practices, Ukrainians are finding ways to adapt and thrive even in the face of uncertainty.

Looking Ahead

As Ukraine prepares for the winter months, the focus remains on ensuring energy security and maintaining the functionality of critical infrastructure. While challenges loom, the collective efforts of the government, international partners, and citizens demonstrate a strong commitment to resilience and adaptation.

In conclusion, the upcoming winter presents significant challenges for Ukraine's energy sector, yet the nation's determination to secure its energy future remains unwavering. With ongoing repairs, international support, and community innovation, Ukraine is working diligently to navigate the complexities of this winter, aiming to emerge stronger and more resilient in the face of adversity. The resilience shown today will be crucial as the country continues to confront the ongoing impacts of conflict and seeks to build a sustainable future.

 

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PG&E Wildfire Assistance Program Accepting Applications for Aid

PG&E Wildfire Assistance Program offers court-approved aid and emergency grants for Northern California wildfires and Camp Fire victims, covering unmet needs, housing, and essentials; apply online by November 15, 2019 under Chapter 11-funded eligibility.

 

Key Points

A $105M, court-approved aid fund offering unmet-needs payments and emergency support for 2017-2018 wildfire victims.

✅ $5,000 Basic Unmet Needs per household, self-certified

✅ Supplemental aid for extreme circumstances after basic grants

✅ Apply online; deadline November 15, 2019; identity required

 

Beginning today, August 15, 2019, those displaced by the 2017 Northern California wildfires and 2018 Camp fire can apply for aid through an independently administered Wildfire Assistance Program funded by Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E). PG&E’s $105 million fund, approved by the judge in PG&E’s Chapter 11 cases and related bankruptcy plan, is intended to help those who are either uninsured or need assistance with alternative living expenses or other urgent needs. The court-approved independent administrator is set to file the eligibility criteria as required by the court and will open the application process.

“Our goal is to get the money to those who most need it as quickly as possible. We will prioritize wildfire victims who have urgent needs, including those who are currently without adequate shelter,” said Cathy Yanni, plan administrator. Yanni is partnering with local agencies and community organizations to administer the fund, and PG&E also supports local communities through property tax contributions to counties.

“We appreciate the diligent work of the fund administrator in quickly establishing a way to distribute these funds and ensuring the program supports those with the most immediate needs. PG&E is focused on helping those impacted by the devastating wildfires in recent years and strengthening our energy system to reduce wildfire risks and prevent utility-caused catastrophic fires. We feel strongly that helping these communities now is the right thing to do,” said Bill Johnson, CEO and President of PG&E Corporation.

Applicants can request a “Basic Unmet Needs” payment of $5,000 per household for victims who establish basic eligibility requirements and self-certify that they have at least $5,000 of unmet needs that have not been compensated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Payments are to support needs such as water, food, prescriptions, medical supplies and equipment, infant formula and diapers, personal hygiene items, and transportation fuels beyond what FEMA covered in the days immediately following the declared disasters, aligning with broader health and safety actions the company has taken.

Those who receive basic payments may also qualify for a “Supplemental Unmet Needs” payment. These funds will be available only after “Basic Unmet Needs” payments have been issued. Supplemental payments will be available to individuals and families who currently face extreme or extraordinary circumstances as compared to others who were impacted by the 2017 and 2018 wildfires, including areas affected by power line-related fires across California.

To qualify for the payments, applicants’ primary residence must have been within the boundary of the 2017 Northern California wildfires or the 2018 Camp fire in Butte County. Applicants also must establish proof of identity and certify that they are not requesting payments for an expense already paid for by FEMA.

Applicants can find more information and apply for assistance at https://www.norcalwildfireassistanceprogram.com/. The deadline to file for aid is November 15, 2019.

The $105 million being provided by PG&E was made available from the company’s cash reserves. PG&E will not seek cost recovery from its customers, and its rates are set to stabilize in 2025 according to recent guidance.

 

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How Ukraine Will Keep the Lights On This Winter

Ukraine Winter Energy Strategy strengthens the power grid through infrastructure repairs, electricity imports, renewable integration, nuclear output, and conservation to ensure reliable heating, blackout mitigation, and grid resilience with international aid, generators, and transmission lines.

 

Key Points

A wartime plan to stabilize Ukraine's grid via repairs, imports, renewables, and nuclear to deliver reliable electricity.

✅ Repairs, imports, and demand management stabilize the grid.

✅ Renewables and nuclear reduce outage risks in winter.

✅ International aid supplies transformers, generators, expertise.

 

As Ukraine braces for the winter months, the question of how the country will keep the lights on has become a pressing concern, as the country fights to keep the lights on amid ongoing strikes. The ongoing war with Russia has severely disrupted Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leading to widespread damage to power plants, transmission lines, and other critical energy facilities. Despite these challenges, Ukraine has been working tirelessly to maintain its energy supply during the cold winter months, which are essential not only for heating but also for the functioning of homes, businesses, hospitals, and schools. Here's a closer look at the steps Ukraine is taking to keep the lights on this winter and ensure that its people have access to reliable electricity.

1. Repairing Damaged Infrastructure

One of the most immediate concerns for Ukraine's energy sector is the extensive damage inflicted on its power infrastructure by Russian missile and drone attacks. Since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has faced repeated attacks targeting power plants, substations, and power lines, including strikes on western regions that caused widespread outages across communities. These attacks have left parts of the country with intermittent or no electricity, and repairing the damage has been a monumental task.

However, Ukraine has made significant progress in restoring its energy infrastructure. Government agencies and energy companies have been working around the clock to repair power plants and transmission networks. Teams of technicians and engineers have been deployed to restore power to areas that have been hardest hit by Russian attacks, often under difficult and dangerous conditions. While some areas may continue to face outages, efforts to rebuild the energy grid are ongoing, with the government prioritizing critical infrastructure to ensure that hospitals, military facilities, and essential services have access to power.

2. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Measures

To cope with reduced energy availability and avoid overloading the grid, Ukrainian authorities have been encouraging energy efficiency and conservation measures. These efforts are particularly important during the winter when demand for electricity and heating is at its peak.

The government has implemented energy-saving programs, urging citizens and businesses to reduce their consumption and adopt new energy solutions that can be deployed quickly. Measures include limiting electricity use during peak hours, setting thermostats lower in homes and businesses, and encouraging the use of energy-efficient appliances. Ukrainian officials have also been promoting public awareness campaigns to educate people about the importance of energy conservation, which is crucial to avoid grid overload and ensure the distribution of power across the country.

3. Importing Energy from Abroad

To supplement domestic energy production, Ukraine has been working to secure electricity imports from neighboring countries. Ukraine has long been interconnected with energy grids in countries such as Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, which allows it to import electricity during times of shortage. In recent months, Ukraine has ramped up efforts to strengthen these connections, ensuring that it can import electricity when domestic production is insufficient to meet demand, and in a notable instance, helped Spain during blackouts through coordinated cross-border support.

While electricity imports from neighboring countries provide a temporary solution, this is not without its challenges. The cost of importing electricity can be high, and the country’s ability to import large amounts of power depends on the availability of energy in neighboring nations; officials say there are electricity reserves and no scheduled outages if strikes do not resume. Ukraine has been actively seeking new energy partnerships and working with international organizations to secure access to electricity, including exploring the potential for importing energy from the European Union.

4. Harnessing Renewable Energy Sources

Another key part of Ukraine's strategy to keep the lights on this winter is tapping into renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power. While Ukraine’s energy sector has historically been dependent on fossil fuels, the country has been making strides in integrating renewable energy into its grid. Solar and wind energy are particularly useful in supplementing the national grid, especially during the winter months when demand is high.

Renewable energy sources are less vulnerable to missile strikes compared to traditional power plants, making them an attractive option for Ukraine's energy strategy. Although renewable energy currently represents a smaller portion of Ukraine’s overall energy mix, its contribution is expected to increase as the country invests more in clean energy infrastructure. In addition to reducing dependence on fossil fuels, this shift is aligned with Ukraine’s broader environmental goals and will be important for the long-term sustainability of its energy sector.

5. International Aid and Support

International support has been crucial in helping Ukraine keep the lights on during the war. Western allies, including the European Union and the United States, have provided financial assistance, technical expertise, and equipment to help restore the energy infrastructure, though Washington recently ended some grid restoration support as priorities shifted. In addition to rebuilding power plants and transmission lines, Ukraine has received advanced energy technologies and materials to strengthen its energy security.

The U.S. has sent electrical transformers, backup generators, and other essential equipment to help Ukraine restore its energy grid. The European Union has also provided both financial and technical assistance, supporting Ukraine’s efforts to integrate more renewable energy into its grid and enhancing the country’s ability to import electricity from neighboring states.

6. The Role of Nuclear Energy

Ukraine’s nuclear energy plants play a critical role in the country’s electricity supply. Before the war, nuclear power accounted for around 50% of Ukraine’s total electricity generation, and for communities near the front line, electricity is civilization that depends on reliable baseload. Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian nuclear plants have remained operational, though they face heightened security risks due to the proximity of active combat zones.

In the winter months, nuclear plants are expected to continue providing a significant portion of Ukraine's electricity, which is essential for meeting the country's heating and power needs. The government has made efforts to ensure the safety and security of these plants, which remain a vital part of the country's energy strategy.

Keeping the lights on in Ukraine during the winter of 2024 is no small feat, given the war-related damage to energy infrastructure, rising energy demands, and ongoing security risks. However, the Ukrainian government has taken proactive steps to address these challenges, including repairing critical infrastructure, importing energy from neighboring countries, promoting energy efficiency, and expanding renewable energy sources. International aid and the continued operation of nuclear plants also play a vital role in ensuring a reliable energy supply. While challenges remain, Ukraine’s resilience and determination to overcome its energy crisis are clear, and the country is doing everything it can to keep the lights on through this difficult winter.

 

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UK to End Coal Power After 142 Years

UK Coal Phase-Out signals an energy transition, accelerating decarbonization with offshore wind, solar, and storage, advancing net-zero targets, cleaner air, and a just transition for communities impacted by fossil fuel decline.

 

Key Points

A policy to end coal power in the UK, boosting renewables and net-zero goals while improving air quality.

✅ Coal electricity fell from 40% in 2012 to under 3% by 2022

✅ Offshore wind and solar expand capacity; storage enhances reliability

✅ Just transition funds retrain workers and support coal regions

 

The United Kingdom is poised to mark a significant milestone in its energy history by phasing out coal power entirely, ending a reliance that has lasted for 142 years. This decision underscores the UK’s commitment to combating climate change and transitioning toward cleaner energy sources, reflecting a broader global energy transition away from fossil fuels. As the country embarks on this journey, it highlights both the achievements and challenges of moving towards a sustainable energy future.

A Historic Transition

The UK’s relationship with coal dates back to the Industrial Revolution, when coal was the backbone of its energy supply, driving factories, trains, and homes. However, as concerns over air quality and climate change have mounted, the nation has progressively shifted its focus toward renewable energy sources amid a global decline in coal-fired electricity worldwide. The decision to end coal power represents the culmination of this transformation, signaling a definitive break from a past heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

In recent years, the UK has made remarkable strides in reducing its carbon emissions. From 2012 to 2022, coal's contribution to the country's electricity generation plummeted from around 40% to less than 3%, as policies like the British carbon tax took effect across the power sector. This dramatic decline is largely due to the rise of renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, which have increasingly filled the gap left by coal.

Environmental and Health Benefits

The move away from coal power has significant environmental benefits. Coal is one of the most carbon-intensive energy sources, releasing substantial amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other harmful pollutants into the atmosphere. By phasing out coal, the UK aims to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality, which has been linked to serious health issues such as respiratory diseases and cardiovascular problems.

The UK government has set ambitious net zero policies, aiming to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Ending coal power is a critical step in reaching this target, demonstrating leadership on the global stage and setting an example for other countries still dependent on fossil fuels. This transition not only addresses climate change but also promotes a healthier environment for future generations.

The Role of Renewable Energy

As the UK phases out coal, renewable energy sources are expected to play a central role in meeting the country's energy needs. Wind power, in particular, has surged in prominence, with the UK leading the world in offshore wind capacity. In 2020, wind energy surpassed coal for the first time, accounting for over 24% of the country's electricity generation.

Solar energy has also seen significant growth, contributing to the diversification of the UK’s energy mix. The government’s investments in renewable energy infrastructure and technology have facilitated this rapid transition, providing the necessary framework for a sustainable energy future.

Economic Implications

While the transition away from coal power presents environmental benefits, it also carries economic implications. The coal industry has historically provided jobs and economic activity, particularly in regions where coal mining was a mainstay, a dynamic echoed in analyses of the decarbonization of Canada's electricity grid and its regional impacts. As the UK moves toward a greener economy, there is an urgent need to support communities that may be adversely affected by this transition.

To address potential job losses, the government has emphasized the importance of investing in retraining programs and creating new opportunities in the renewable energy sector. This will be vital in ensuring a just transition that supports workers and communities as the energy landscape evolves.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the progress made, the journey toward a coal-free UK is not without challenges. One significant concern is the need for reliable energy storage solutions to complement intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar. Ensuring a stable energy supply during periods of low generation will be critical for maintaining grid reliability.

Moreover, public acceptance and engagement will be crucial, as illustrated by debates over New Zealand's electricity transition and its pace, as the UK navigates this transition. Engaging communities in discussions about energy policies and developments can foster understanding and support for the changes ahead.

Looking to the Future

The UK’s decision to phase out coal power after 142 years marks a significant turning point in its energy policy and environmental strategy. This historic shift not only aligns with the country’s climate goals but also showcases its commitment to a cleaner, more sustainable future.

As the UK continues to invest in renewable energy and transition away from fossil fuels, it sets an important example for other nations, including those on China's path to carbon neutrality, grappling with similar challenges. By embracing this transition, the UK is not only addressing pressing environmental concerns but also paving the way for a greener economy that can thrive in the decades to come.

 

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B.C. Diverting Critical Minerals, Energy from U.S

Canadian Softwood Lumber Tariffs challenge British Columbia's forestry sector, strain U.S.-Canada trade, and risk redirecting critical minerals and energy resources, threatening North American supply chains, manufacturing, and energy security across integrated markets.

 

Key Points

Duties imposed by the U.S. on Canadian lumber, affecting BC forestry, trade flows, and North American energy security.

✅ U.S. duties strain BC forestry and cross-border supply chains

✅ Risks redirecting critical minerals and energy exports

✅ Tariff rollback could bolster North American energy security

 

British Columbia Premier David Eby has raised concerns that U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber are prompting the province to redirect its critical minerals and energy resources, while B.C. challenges Alberta's electricity export restrictions domestically, away from the United States. In a recent interview, Eby emphasized the broader implications of these tariffs, suggesting they could undermine North American energy security and put electricity exports at risk across the border.

Since 2017, the U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber imports, alleging that Canadian producers benefit from unfair subsidies. These duties have been a persistent source of tension between the two nations, coinciding with Canadian support for energy and mineral tariffs and significantly impacting British Columbia's forestry sector—a cornerstone of the province's economy.

Premier Eby highlighted that the financial strain imposed by these tariffs not only jeopardizes the Canadian forestry industry but also has unintended repercussions for the United States. He pointed out that the economic challenges faced by Canadian producers might lead them to seek alternative markets for their critical minerals and energy resources, as tariff threats boost support for Canadian energy projects domestically, thereby reducing the supply to the U.S. British Columbia is endowed with an abundance of critical minerals essential for various industries, including technology and defense.

The potential redirection of these resources could have significant consequences for American industries that depend on a stable and affordable supply of critical minerals and energy. Eby suggested that the tariffs might incentivize Canadian producers to explore other international markets, even as experts advise against cutting Quebec's energy exports amid the tariff dispute, diminishing the availability of these vital resources to the U.S.

In light of these concerns, Premier Eby has advocated for a reassessment of the tariffs, urging a more cooperative approach between Canada and the United States. He contends that eliminating the tariffs would be mutually beneficial, aligning with views that Biden is better for Canada's energy sector and cross-border collaboration, ensuring a consistent supply of critical resources and fostering economic growth in both countries.

The issue of U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber remains complex and contentious, with far-reaching implications for trade relations and resource distribution between the two nations. As discussions continue, stakeholders on both sides of the border are closely monitoring the situation, noting that Ford has threatened to cut U.S. electricity exports amid trade tensions, recognizing the importance of collaboration in addressing shared economic and security challenges.

 

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Cheap oil contagion is clear and present danger to Canada

Canada Oil Recession Outlook analyzes the Russia-Saudi price war, OPEC discord, COVID-19 demand shock, WTI and WCS collapse, Alberta oilsands exposure, U.S. shale stress, and GDP risks from blockades and fiscal responses.

 

Key Points

An outlook on how the oil price war and COVID-19 demand shock could tip Canada into recession and strain producers.

✅ WTI and WCS prices plunge on OPEC-Russia discord

✅ Alberta oilsands face break-even pressure near 30 USD WTI

✅ RBC flags global recession; GDP hit from blockades, virus

 

A war between Russia and Saudi Arabia for market share for oil may have been triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in China, but the oil price crash contagion that it will spread could have impacts that last longer than the virus.

The prospects for Canada are not good.

Plunging oil prices, reduced economic activity from virus containment, and the fallout from weeks of railway blockades over the Coastal GasLink pipeline all add up to “a one-two-three punch that I think is almost inevitably going to put Canada in a position where its growth has to be negative,” said Dan McTeague, a former Liberal MP and current president of Canadians for Affordable Energy. The situation “certainly has the makings” of a recession, said Ken Peacock, chief economist for the Business Council of British Columbia.

“At a minimum, it’s going to be very disruptive and we’re going to have maybe one negative quarter,” Peacock said. “Whether there’s a second one, where it gets labeled a recession, is a different question. But it’s going to generate some turmoil and challenges over the next two quarters – there’s no doubt about that.”

RBC Economics on March 13 announced it now predicts a global recession and cut its growth projections for Canada's economy in 2020 by half a per cent.

Oil price futures plunged 30% last week, dragging stock markets and currencies, including the Canadian dollar, down with them, even as a deep freeze strained U.S. energy systems. That drop came on top of a 17% decline in February, due to falling demand for oil due to the virus.

The latest price plunge – the worst since the 1991 Gulf War – was the result of Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, failing to agree on oil production cuts.

The COVID-19 outbreak in China – the world’s second-largest oil consumer – had resulted in a dramatic drop in oil demand in that country, and a sudden glut of oil, with the U.S. energy crisis affecting electricity, gas and EV markets.

OPEC has historically been able to moderate global oil prices by controlling output. But when Russia refused to co-operate with OPEC and agree to production cuts, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned company, Aramco, announced it plans to boost its oil output from 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 12.3 million bpd in April.

In response to that announcement, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices dropped 18% to below US$34 per barrel while the Canadian Crude Index fell 24% to US$21. Western Canadian Select dropped 39% to US$15.73.

The effect on Alberta oilsands producers was severe and immediate. Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX:CVE) saw roughly $2 billion in market cap erased on March 9, when its stock dropped by 52%, which came on top of a 12% drop March 6.

The company responded the very next day by announcing it would cut spending by 32% in 2020, suspend its oil-by-rail program and defer expansion projects.

MEG Energy Corp. (TSX:MEG), which suffered a 56% share price drop on March 9, also announced a 20% reduction in its 2020 capital spending plan.

Peter Tertzakian, chief economist for ARC Energy Research Institute, wrote last week that Russia’s plan is to try to hurt U.S. shale oil producers, who have more than doubled U.S. oil production over the past decade.

Anas Alhajji, a global oil analyst, expects that plan could work. Even before the oil price shock, he had predicted the great shale boom in the U.S. was coming to an end.

“Shale production will decline, and the myth of ‘explosive growth’ will end,” he told Business in Vancouver. “The impact is global and Canadian producers might suffer even more if the oil that Saudi Arabia sends to the U.S. is medium and heavy. This might last longer than what people think.”

The question for Alberta is how Canadian producers can continue to operate through a period of cheap oil. Alberta producers do not compete on the global market. They serve a niche market of U.S. heavy oil refiners, and Biden-era policy is seen as potentially more favourable for Canada’s energy sector than alternatives.

“On the positive side, the industry is battle-hardened,” Tertzakian wrote. “Over the past five years, innovative companies have already learned to endure some of the lowest prices in the world.”

But he added that they need WTI prices of US$30 per barrel just to break even.

“But that’s an average break-even threshold for an industry with a wide variation in costs. That means at that level about half the companies can’t pay their bills and half are treading water.”

Just prior to the oil price plunge, the International Energy Agency (IEA) updated its 2020 forecast for global oil consumption from an 825,000 bpd increase in oil consumption to a 90,000 bpd decrease, due to the COVID-19 virus and consequent economic contraction and reduction in travel.

The IEA predicts global oil demand won’t return to “normal” until the second half of 2020. But even if demand does return to pre-virus levels, that doesn’t mean oil prices will – not if Saudi Arabia can sustain increased oil production at low prices, and evolving clean grid priorities could influence the trajectory too.

The oil plunge was greeted in Alberta with alarm. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney warned Alberta is in “uncharted territory” as consumers are urged to lock in rates and said his government might have to review its balanced budget and resort to emergency deficit spending.

While British Columbians – who pay some of the highest gasoline prices in North America – will enjoy lower gasoline prices at a time when prices are usually starting a seasonal spike, B.C.’s economy could feel knock-on effects from a recession in Alberta.

“We sell a lot of inputs, do a lot of trade with Alberta, so it’s important for B.C., Alberta’s economic health,” Peacock said, “and recent tensions over electricity purchase talks underscore that.”

Last week, the Trudeau government announced $1 billion in emergency funding to cope with the virus and waived a one-week waiting period for unemployment insurance.

 

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