Ordinance would darken businesses' overnight lights

Ontario Electricity Capacity Gap threatens reliability as IESO forecasts shortfalls from the Pickering shutdown and rapid electrification, requiring new low-emission nuclear generation to meet net-zero targets, maintain baseload, and stabilize the grid.

Key Points

Expected 2030 shortfalls from Pickering closure and electrification, requiring new low-emission nuclear to meet net-zero.

✅ IESO projects a 3.6-9.5 GW capacity gap by 2030

✅ Pickering shutdown removes baseload, stressing reliability

✅ New low-emission nuclear needed to meet net-zero targets

Ontario faces an electricity supply shortage and reliability risks in the next four to eight years and will not meet net-zero objectives without building new low-emission, nuclear generation starting as soon as possible, according to a report released yesterday by the Power Workers' Union (PWU). The capacity needed to fill the expected supply gap will be equivalent to doubling the province's planned nuclear fleet in eight years.

The planned closure of the Pickering nuclear power plant in 2025 and the increase in demand from electrification of the economy are the drivers behind a capacity gap in 2030 of at least 3.6 GW which could widen to as much as 9.5 GW, Electrification Pathways for Ontario to Reduce Emissions, finds. Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has since 2013 been forecasting a significant gap in the province's electricity supply due the closure of Pickering, but has been underestimating the impact of electrification, the report says.

In addition, the electrification of buildings, transport and industry sectors that will be needed to achieve goals of net-zero emissions by 2050 that being set by the federal government and civil society will see the province's electricity demand increase by at least 130% over current planning forecasts, and potentially by over 190%. Leveraging electricity, natural gas and hydrogen synergies can reduce supply needs, but 55 GW of new electricity capacity, including new large-scale nuclear plants, will still be needed by 2050 - four times Ontario's current nuclear and hydro assets - the report finds.

These findings underscore the urgent need for a paradigm shift in Ontario's electricity planning and procurement process, the authors say, adding that immediate action is needed both to mitigate the system reliability risks and enable the significant societal benefits needed to pursue net-zero objectives. Planning for procurement to replace Pickering's capacity, or to pursue life extension options, must begin as soon as possible.

"Policymakers around the world realise climate change can't be tackled without nuclear. Ontario's nuclear fleet has delivered emissions reductions for over 50 years," PWU President Jeff Parnell said. "In fact, without building new nuclear units, Ontario will miss its emission reduction targets and carbon emissions from electricity generation will rise dramatically, as explored in why Ontario's power could get dirtier today."

"This report clearly shows that Ontario cannot sustain the low-carbon status of its hydro and nuclear-based electricity system, decarbonise its economy and meet its carbon reduction targets without new nuclear or continued operation at Pickering in the near term. Most disturbing is the fact that we are already well behind and needed to start planning for this capacity yesterday," he said.

The six operating Candu reactors at Ontario Power Generation's Pickering plant have been kept in operation to provide baseload electricity during the refurbishment of units at the Darlington and Bruce plants. Currently, the company plans to shut down Pickering units 1 and 4 in 2024 and units 5 to 8 in 2025, even as Ontario moves to refurbish Pickering B to extend life.

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Philippines Nuclear Energy Policy aims to add nuclear power to the energy mix via executive order, meeting rising electricity demand with 24/7 baseload while balancing safety, renewables, and imported fuel dependence in the Philippines.

Key Points

A government plan to include nuclear power in the energy mix to meet demand, ensure baseload, and uphold safety.

✅ Executive order proposed by Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi

✅ Targets 24/7 baseload, rising electricity demand

✅ Balances safety, renewables, and energy security

Phillipines Presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo said Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi made the proposal during last Monday's Cabinet meeting in Malacaaang. "Secretary Cusi likewise sought the approval of the issuance of a proposed executive order for the inclusion of nuclear power, including next-gen nuclear options in the country's energy mix as the Philippines is expected to the rapid growth in electricity and electricity demand, in which, 24/7 power is essential and necessary," Panelo said in a statement.

Panelo said Duterte would study the energy chief's proposal, as China's nuclear development underscores regional momentum. In the 1960s until the mid 80s, the late president Ferdinand Marcos adopted a nuclear energy program and built the Bataan Nuclear Plant.

The nuclear plant was mothballed after Corazon Aquino became president in 1986. There have been calls to revive the nuclear plant, saying it would help address the Philippines' energy supply issues. Some groups, however, said such move would be expensive and would endanger the lives of people living near the facility, citing Three Mile Island as a cautionary example.

Panelo said proposals to revive the Bataan Nuclear Plant were not discussed during the Cabinet meeting, even as debates like California's renewable classification continue to shape perceptions. Indigenous energy sources natural gas, hydro, coal, oil, geothermal, wind, solar, biomassand ethanol constitute more than half or 59.6%of the Philippines' energy mix.

Imported oil make up 31.7% while imported coal, reflecting the country's coal dependency, contribute about 8.7%.

Imported ethanol make up 0.1% of the energy mix, even as interest in atomic energy rises globally.

In 2018, Duterte said safety should be the priority when deciding whether to tap nuclear energy for the country's power needs, as countries like India's nuclear restart proceed with their own safeguards.

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New Mexico EV Benefits highlight cheaper fuel, lower maintenance, cleaner air, and smarter charging, cutting utility bills, reducing NOx and carbon emissions, and leveraging incentives and renewable energy to accelerate EV adoption statewide.

Key Points

New Mexico EV Benefits are the cost, grid, and emissions gains from EV adoption and optimized off-peak charging.

✅ Electricity near $1.11 per gallon equivalent cuts fueling costs

✅ Fewer moving parts mean less maintenance and lifecycle costs

✅ Off-peak charging reduces utility bills and grid emissions

What would happen if New Mexicans ditched gasoline and started to drive on cleaner, cheaper electricity? A new report from MJ Bradley & Associates, commissioned by NRDC and Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, answers that question, demonstrating that New Mexico could realize $30 billion in avoided expenditures on gasoline and maintenance, reduced utility bills, and environmental benefits by 2050. The state is currently considering legislation to jump-start that transition by providing consumers incentives to support electric vehicle (EV) purchases and the installation of charging stations, drawing on examples like Nevada's clean-vehicle push to accelerate deployment, a policy that would require a few million dollars in lost tax revenue. The report shows an investment of this kind could yield tens of billions of dollars in net benefits.

$20 Billion in Driver Savings

EVs save families money because driving on electricity in New Mexico is the cost-equivalent of driving on $1.11 per gallon gasoline. Furthermore, EVs have fewer moving parts and less required maintenance—no oil changes, no transmissions, no mufflers, no timing belts, etc. That means that tackling the nation’s largest source of carbon pollution, transportation, could save New Mexicans over $20 billion by 2050 because EVs are cheaper to charge and maintain than gas powered cars, and an EV boom benefits all customers through lower rates.

Those are savings New Mexico can bank on because the price of electricity is significantly cheaper than the price of gasoline and also inherently more stable. Electricity is made from a diverse supply of domestic and increasingly clean resources, and 2021 electricity lessons continue to inform grid planning today. Unlike the volatile world oil market, New Mexico’s electric sector is regulated by the state’s utility commission. Adjusted for inflation, the price of electricity has been steady around the dollar-a-gallon equivalent mark in New Mexico for the last 20 years, while gas prices jump up or down radically and unpredictably.

$4.8 Billion in Reduced Electric Bills

While some warn that electric cars will challenge state power grids, New Mexico can charge millions of EVs without the need to make significant investments in the electric grid. This is because EVs can be charged when the grid is underutilized and renewable energy is abundant, like when people are sleeping overnight when wind energy generation often peaks. And the billions of dollars in new utility revenue from EV charging in excess of associated costs will be automatically returned to utility customers per an accounting mechanism that is already in state law that requires downward adjustment of rates when sales increase. Accordingly, widespread EV adoption could reduce every utility customer’s electric bill.

Thankfully, New Mexico’s electric industry is already acting to ensure utility customers in the state realize those benefits sooner rather than later. The state’s rural electric cooperatives have proposed an ambitious plan to leverage funds available as a result of the Volkswagen diesel scandal to build a state-wide public fast charging network that mirrors progress as Arizona goes EV across the Southwest. Additionally, New Mexico’s investor-owned utilities will soon propose transportation electrification investments as required by legislation NRDC supported last year that Governor Lujan Grisham signed into law.

$4.8 Billion in Societal Benefits from Reduced Pollution

The report estimates that widespread EV adoption would dramatically reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from passenger vehicles in New Mexico, and also cut emissions of NOx, a local pollutant that threatens the health off all New Mexicans, especially children and people with respiratory conditions. The report finds growing the state’s EV market to meet New Mexico’s long-term environmental goals would yield $4.8 billion in societal benefits.

The Bottom Line: New Mexico Should Act Now to Accelerate its EV Market

Adding it all up, that’s more than $30 billion in potential benefits to New Mexico by 2050. Here’s the catch: as of June 2019, there were only 2,500 EVs registered in New Mexico, which means the state needs to accelerate the EV market, as the American EV boom ramps up nationally, to capture those billions of dollars in potential benefits. Thankfully, with second generation, longer range, affordable EVs now available, the market is well positioned to expand rapidly as the state moves to adopt Clean Car Standards that will ensure EVs are available for purchase in the state.

Getting it right

New Mexico has enormous amounts to gain from a small investment in incentives that support EV adoption now. For that investment to pay off, it needs to send a clear and unambiguous signal. Unfortunately, the same legislation that would establish tax credits to increase consumer access to electric vehicles in New Mexico was recently amended so it would not be helpful for 80 percent of consumers who lease, instead of buying EVs. And it would penalize EV drivers at the same time—with a $100 annual increase in registration fees, even as Texas adds a $200 EV fee under a similar rationale, to make up for lost gas tax revenue. That’s significantly more than what drivers of new gasoline vehicles pay annually in gas taxes in the state. Consumer Reports recently analyzed the growing trend to unfairly penalize electric cars via disproportionately high registration fees. In doing so, it estimated that the “maximum justifiable fee” to replace gas tax revenue in New Mexico would be $53. Anything higher will only slow or stop benefits New Mexico can attain from moving to cleaner cars.

To be clear, everyone should pay their fair share to maintain the transportation system, but EVs are not the problem when it comes to lost gas tax revenue. We need a comprehensive solution that addresses the real sources of transportation revenue loss while not undermining efforts to reduce dependence on gasoline. Thankfully, that can be done. For more, see A Simple Way to Fix the Gas Tax Forever.

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Nuclear Power for Net-Zero Grids anchors reliable baseload, integrating renewables with grid stability as solar, wind, and battery storage scale. Advanced reactors complement hydropower, curb natural gas reliance, and accelerate deep decarbonization of electricity systems.

Key Points

Uses nuclear baseload and advanced reactors to stabilize power grids and integrate higher shares of variable renewables.

✅ Provides firm, zero-carbon baseload for renewable-heavy grids

✅ Reduces natural gas dependence and peaker emissions

✅ Advanced reactors enhance safety, flexibility, and cost

Declining solar, wind, and battery technology costs are helping to grow the share of renewables in the world’s power mix to the point that governments are pledging net-zero emission electricity generation in two to three decades to fight global warming.

Yet, electricity grids will continue to require stable baseload to incorporate growing shares of renewable energy sources and ensure lights are on even when the sun doesn’t shine, or the wind doesn’t blow. Until battery technology evolves enough—and costs fall far enough—to allow massive storage and deployment of net-zero electricity to the grid, the systems will continue to need power from sources other than solar and wind.

And these will be natural gas and nuclear power, regardless of concerns about emissions from the fossil fuel natural gas and potential disasters at nuclear power facilities such as the ones in Chernobyl or Fukushima.

As natural gas is increasingly considered as just another fossil fuel, nuclear power generation provides carbon-free electricity to the countries that have it, even as debates over nuclear power’s outlook continue worldwide, and could be the key to ensuring a stable power grid capable of taking in growing shares of solar and wind power generation.

The United States, where nuclear energy currently provides more than half of the carbon-free electricity, is supporting the development of advanced nuclear reactors as part of the clean energy strategy.

But Europe, which has set a goal to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, could find itself with growing emissions from the power sector in a decade, as many nuclear reactors are slated for decommissioning and questions remain over whether its aging reactors can bridge the gap. The gap left by lost nuclear power is most easily filled by natural gas-powered electricity generation—and this, if it happens, could undermine the net-zero goals of the European Union (EU) and the bloc’s ambition to be a world leader in the fight against climate change.

U.S. Power Grid Will Need Nuclear For Net-Zero Emissions

A 2020 report from the University of California, Berkeley, said that rapidly declining solar, wind, and storage prices make it entirely feasible for the U.S. to meet 90 percent of its power needs from zero-emission energy sources by 2035 with zero increases in customer costs from today’s levels.

Still, natural gas-fired generation will be needed for 10 percent of America’s power needs. According to the report, in 2035 it would be possible that “during normal periods of generation and demand, wind, solar, and batteries provide 70% of annual generation, while hydropower and nuclear provide 20%.” Even with an exponential rise in renewable power generation, the U.S. grid will need nuclear power and hydropower to be stable with such a large share of solar and wind.

The U.S. Backs Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technology

The U.S. Department of Energy is funding programs of private companies under DOE’s new Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to showcase next-gen nuclear designs for U.S. deployment.

“Taking leadership in advanced technology is so important to the country’s future because nuclear energy plays such a key role in our clean energy strategy,” U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette said at the end of December when DOE announced it was financially backing five teams to develop and demonstrate advanced nuclear reactors in the United States.

“All of these projects will put the U.S. on an accelerated timeline to domestically and globally deploy advanced nuclear reactors that will enhance safety and be affordable to construct and operate,” Secretary Brouillette said.

According to Washington DC-based Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), a policy organization of the nuclear technologies industry, nuclear energy provides nearly 55 percent of America’s carbon-free electricity. That is more than 2.5 times the amount generated by hydropower, nearly 3 times the amount generated by wind, and more than 12 times the amount generated by solar. Nuclear energy can help the United States to get to the deep carbonization needed to hit climate goals.

Europe Could See Rising Emissions Without Nuclear Power

While the United States is doubling down on efforts to develop advanced and cheaper nuclear reactors, including microreactors and such with new types of technology, Europe could be headed to growing emissions from the electricity sector as nuclear power facilities are scheduled to be decommissioned over the next decade and Europe is losing nuclear power just when it really needs energy, according to a Reuters analysis from last month.

In many cases, it will be natural gas that will come to the rescue to power grids to ensure grid stability and enough capacity during peak demand because solar and wind generation is variable and dependent on the weather.

For example, Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, is boosting its renewables targets, but it is also phasing out nuclear by next year, amid a nuclear option debate over climate strategy, while its deadline to phase out coal-fired generation is 2038—more than a decade later compared to phase-out plans in the UK and Italy, for example, where the deadline is the mid-2020s.

The UK, which left the EU last year, included support for nuclear power generation as one of the ten pillars in ‘The Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution’ unveiled in November.

The UK’s National Grid has issued several warnings about tight supply since the fall of 2020, due to low renewable output amid high demand.

“National Grid’s announcement underscores the urgency of investing in new nuclear capacity, to secure reliable, always-on, emissions-free power, alongside other zero-carbon sources. Otherwise, we will continue to burn gas and coal as a fallback and fall short of our net zero ambitions,” Tom Greatrex, Chief Executive of the Nuclear Industry Association, said in response to one of those warnings.

But it’s in the UK that one major nuclear power plant project has notoriously seen a delay of nearly a decade—Hinkley Point C, originally planned in 2007 to help UK households to “cook their 2017 Christmas turkeys”, is now set for start-up in the middle of the 2020s.

Nuclear power development and plant construction is expensive, but it could save the plans for low-carbon emission power generation in many developed economies, including in the United States.

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Ontario Global Adjustment Deferral offers COVID-19 electricity bill relief to industrial and commercial consumers not on the RPP, aligning GA to March levels for Class A and Class B manufacturers to improve cash flow.

Key Points

A temporary GA deferral easing electricity costs for Ontario industrial and commercial users not on the RPP.

✅ Sets Class B GA at $115/MWh; Class A gets equal percentage cut.

✅ Applies April-June 2020; automatic bill adjustments and credits.

✅ Deferred charges repaid over 12 months starting January 2021.

Manufacturers welcome the Government of Ontario's decision to defer a portion of Global Adjustment (GA) charges as part of support for industrial and commercial electricity consumers that do not participate in the Regulated Price Plan.

"Manufacturers are pleased the government listened to Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CME) member recommendations and is taking action to reduce Ontario electricity bills immediately," said Dennis Darby, President & CEO of CME.

"The majority of manufacturers have identified cash flow as their top concern during the crisis, "added Darby. "The GA system would have caused a nearly $2 billion cost surge to Ontario manufacturers this year. This new initiative by the government is on top of the billions in support already provided to help manufacturers weather this unprecedented storm, while other provinces accelerate British Columbia's clean energy shift to drive long-term competitiveness. All these measures are a great start in helping businesses of all sizes stay afloat during the crisis and, keeping Ontarians employed."

"We call on the Ontario government to continue to consider the impact of electricity costs on the manufacturing sector, even after the COVID-19 crisis is resolved," stated Darby. "High prices are putting Ontario manufacturers at a significant competitive disadvantage and, discourages investments." A recent report from London Economics International (LEI) found that when compared to jurisdictions with similar manufacturing industries, Ontario's electricity prices can be up to 75% more expensive, underscoring the importance of planning for Toronto's growing electricity needs to maintain affordability.

To provide companies with temporary immediate relief on their electricity bills, the Ontario government is deferring a portion of Global Adjustment (GA) charges for industrial and commercial electricity consumers that do not participate in the Regulated Price Plan (RPP), starting from April 2020, as some regions saw reduced electricity demand from widespread remote work during the pandemic. The GA rate for smaller industrial and commercial consumers (i.e., Class B) has been set at $115 per megawatt-hour, which is roughly in line with the March 2020 value. Large industrial and commercial consumers (i.e., Class A) will receive the same percentage reduction in GA charges as Class B consumers.

The Ontario government intends to keep this relief in place through the end of June 2020, alongside investments like smart grid technology in Sault Ste. Marie to support reliability, subject to necessary extensions and approvals to implement this initiative.

Industrial and commercial electricity consumers will automatically see this relief reflected on their bills. Consumers who have already received their April bill should see an adjustment on a future bill.

Related initiatives include developing cyber standards for electricity sector IoT devices to strengthen system security.

The government intends to bring forward subsequent amendments that would, if approved, recover the deferred GA charges (excluding interest) from industrial and commercial electricity consumers, as Toronto prepares for a surge in electricity demand amid continued growth, over a 12-month period beginning in January 2021.

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Alberta-BC Pipeline Dispute centers on Trans Mountain expansion, diluted bitumen shipments, federal approval, spill response capacity, and electricity trade, as Alberta suspends power talks and Ottawa insists the Kinder Morgan project proceeds in national interest.

Key Points

Dispute over Trans Mountain expansion, bitumen limits, and jurisdiction between Alberta, B.C., and Canada.

✅ Alberta suspends BC electricity talks as leverage

✅ Ottawa affirms federal approval and spill response

✅ BC plans advisory panel on diluted bitumen risks

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley says her government is suspending talks with British Columbia on the purchase of electricity from the western province.

It’s the first step in Alberta’s fight against the B.C. government’s proposal to obstruct the Kinder Morgan oil pipeline expansion project by banning increased shipments of diluted bitumen to the province’s coast.

Up to $500 million annually for B.C.’s coffers from electricity exports hangs in the balance, Notley said.

“We’re prepared to do what it takes to get this pipeline built — whatever it takes,” she told a news conference Thursday after speaking with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the phone.

Notley said she told Trudeau, who’s in Edmonton for a town-hall meeting, that the federal government needs to act decisively to end the dispute.

Speaking on Edmonton talk radio station CHED earlier in the day, Trudeau said the pipeline expansion is in the national interest and will go ahead, even as the federal government undertakes a study on electrification across sectors.

“That pipeline is going to get built,” Trudeau said. “We will stand by our decision. We will ensure that the Kinder Morgan pipeline gets built.”

B.C.’s environment minister has said his minority government plans to ban increased shipments until it can determine that shippers are prepared and able to properly clean up a spill, and, separately, has implemented an electricity rate freeze affecting consumers. He said he will establish an independent scientific advisory panel to study the issue.

The move infuriated Notley, who has accused B.C. of trying to change the rules after the federal government gave the project the green light. B.C. has the right to regulate how any spills would be cleaned up, but can’t dictate what flows through pipelines, she said.

Trudeau said Canada needs to get Alberta’s oil safely to markets other than the U.S. energy market today. He said the federal government did the research and has spent billions on spill response.

“The Kinder Morgan pipeline is not a danger to the B.C. coast,” he said.

Notley said she thanked Trudeau for his assurance that the project will go ahead, but the federal government has to do more to ensure the pipeline’s expansion.

“This is not an Alberta-B.C. issue. This is a Canada-B.C. issue,” she said. “This kind of uncertainty is bad for investment and bad for working people

“Enough is enough. We need to get these things built.”

B.C. Premier John Horgan said his government consulted Alberta and Ottawa about his province’s intentions, noting that Columbia River Treaty talks also shape regional electricity policy.

“I don’t see what the problem is,” Horgan said Thursday at a school opening north of Kelowna, B.C. “It’s within our jurisdiction to put in place regulations to protect the public interest.

“That’s what we are doing.”

He downplayed any possibility of court action or sanctions by Alberta.

“There’s nothing to take to court,” Horgan said. “We are consulting with the people of B.C. It’s way too premature to talk about those sorts of issues.

“Sabre-rattling doesn’t get you very far.”

Speaking in Ottawa, Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr wouldn’t say what Canada might do if British Columbia implements its regulation.

“That’s speculative,” said Carr.

He noted at this point, B.C. has just pledged to consult. He said the federal government heard from thousands of people before the pipeline was approved.

“That’s what they have announced — an intention to consult. We have already consulted.”

B.C.’s proposal creates more uncertainty for Kinder Morgan’s already-delayed Trans Mountain expansion project that would nearly triple the capacity of its pipeline system to 890,000 barrels a day.

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