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COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Power Demand shows falling electricity load, lower wholesale prices, and resilient utilities in competitive markets, with regional differences tied to weather, renewable energy, stay-at-home orders, and hedging strategies.

Key Points

It outlines reduced load and prices, while regulatory design and hedging support utility stability across regions.

✅ Load down in NY, New England, PJM; weather drives South up.

✅ Wholesale prices fall 8-10% in key markets.

✅ Decoupling, contracts, hedging support utility earnings.

On March 27, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) released a report on electricity demand and wholesale market prices impact from COVID-19 fallout. The model compares expected load based largely on weather with actual observed electricity demand changes.

So far, the hardest hit power grid is New York, with load down 7 and prices off by 10 percent. That’s expected, given New York City is the current epicenter of the US health crisis.

Next is New England, with 5 percent lower demand and 8 percent reduced wholesale prices for the week from March 19-25. BNEF says the numbers could go higher following advisories and orders issued March 24 for some 70 percent of the region’s population to stay at home.

Demand on the biggest grid in the US, the PJM (Pennsylvania/Jersey/Maryland), is 4 percent lower, with prices dropping 8 percent, as recent capacity auction payouts fell sharply. BNEF believes there will be more impact as stay at home orders are ramped up in several states.

California’s power demand for March 19-25 was 5 percent below what BNEF’s model expects without COVID-19 impact. That reflects a full week of stay-at-home orders from Governor Newsom issued March 19.

Health officials in Los Angeles and elsewhere expect a spike in COVID-19 cases in coming weeks. But BNEF’s model now actually projects rising electricity load for the state, due to what it calls "freakishly mild weather a year ago."

Rounding out the report, power demand is up for a band of southern states stretching from Florida to the desert Southwest, with weather more than offsetting public response to COVID-19 so far. BNEF says the Northwest’s grid "has not yet been highly impacted," while the Southeast is "generally in line" with pre-virus expectations.

Clearly, all of this data can change quickly and radically. Only California and New York are currently in full shutdown mode. Following them are New England (70 percent), the Midwest (65 percent), Texas (50 percent), PJM (50 percent) and the Northwest (50 percent).

In contrast, only small parts of Florida, the Southeast and Southwest are restricting movement. That could mean a big future increase for shut-ins, with heightened risks of electricity shut-offs that burden households and a corresponding impact on power demand.

Also, weather will play a major role on what happens to actual electricity demand, just as it always does. A very hot summer, for example, could offset virus-related shut-ins, just as it apparently is now in states like Texas. And it should be pointed out that regions vary widely by exposure to recession-sensitive sources of demand, such as heavy industry.

Most important for investors, however, is the built in protection US utility earnings enjoy from declining power demand, even amid broader energy crisis pressures facing the sector. For one thing, US power grids in California, ERCOT (Texas), MISO (Midwest), New England, New York and PJM have wholesale power markets, where producers compete for sales and the lowest bidder sets the price.

In those states, most regulated utilities don’t produce power at all. In fact, companies’ revenue is decoupled entirely from demand in California, as well as much of New England. In the roughly three-dozen states where utilities still operate as integrated monopolies, demand does affect revenue, and in many regions flat electricity demand already persists. But the cost of electricity is passed through directly to customers, whether produced or purchased.

A number of US electric companies have invested in renewable energy facilities as part of broader electrification trends nationwide. These sell their output under long-term contracts primarily with other utilities and government entities.

This isn’t a risk free business: For the past year, generators selling electricity to bankrupt PG&E Corp (PCG) have had their cash trapped at the power plant level as surety for lenders. But even PG&E has honored its contracts. And with states continuing aggressive mandates for renewable energy adoption, growth doesn’t appear at risk to COVID-19 fallout either.

The wholesale price of power from natural gas, coal and many nuclear plants was already sliding before COVID-19, due to renewables adoption and low natural gas prices, even as coal and nuclear disruptions raise reliability concerns. But here too, big producers like Exelon Corp (EXC) and Vistra Energy (VST) have employed aggressive price hedging near term, with regulated utilities and retail businesses protecting long-term health, respectively.

Bottom line: It’s early days for the COVID-19 crisis and much can still change. But so far at least, the US power industry is absorbing the blow of reduced demand, just as it’s done in previous crises.

That means future selloffs in the ongoing bear market are buying opportunities for best in class electric utilities, not a reason to sell. For top candidates, see the Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolios and Dream Buy List in the March issue. 

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U.S. Wind Generation surpassed hydroelectric output in 2019, EIA data shows, becoming the top renewable electricity source, driven by PTC incentives, expanded capacity, and utility-scale projects across states, boosting the national electricity mix.

Key Points

U.S. Wind Generation is the nation's top renewable, surpassing hydro as EIA-tracked capacity grows under PTC incentives.

✅ EIA: wind topped hydro in 2019, over 300M MWh generated

✅ PTC credits spurred growth in utility-scale wind projects

✅ 103 GW installed; 77% added in the last decade

Last year saw wind power surging in the U.S. to overtake hydroelectric generation for the first time, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Released Wednesday, the figures from the EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report show that yearly wind generation hit a little over 300 million megawatt hours (MWh) in 2019. This was roughly 26 million MWh more than hydroelectric production.

Wind now represents the “most-used renewable electricity generation source” in the U.S., the EIA said, and renewables hit a 28% monthly record in April in later data.

Overall, total renewable electricity generation — which includes sources such as solar's 4.7% share in 2022 as one example, geothermal and landfill gas — at utility scale facilities hit more than 720 million MWh in 2019, compared to just under 707 million MWh in 2018. To put things in perspective, generation from coal came to more than 966 million MWh in 2019, while renewables surpassed coal in 2022 nationally according to later analyses.

According to the EIA’s “Today in Energy” briefing, which was also published Wednesday, generation from wind power has grown “steadily” across the last decade, and by 2020, renewables became the second-most prevalent source in the U.S. power mix.

This, it added, was partly down to the extension of the Production Tax Credit, or PTC, amid favorable government plans supporting solar and wind growth. According to the EIA, the PTC is a system which gives operators a tax credit per kilowatt hour of renewable electricity production. It applies for the first 10 years of a facility’s operation.

At the end of 2019, the country was home to 103 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity, with 77% of this being installed in the last decade, and wind capacity surpassed hydro in 2016 according to industry data. The U.S. is home 80 GW of hydroelectric capacity, according to the EIA.

“The past decade saw a steady increase in wind capacity across the country and we capped the decade with a monumental achievement for the industry in reaching more than 100 GW,” Tom Kiernan, the American Wind Energy Association’s CEO, said in a statement issued Thursday.

“And more wind energy is coming, as the industry is well into investing $62 billion in new projects over the next few years that put us on the path to achieving 20 percent of the nation’s electricity mix in 2030,” Kiernan went on to state.

“As a result, wind is positioned to remain the largest renewable energy generator in the country for the foreseeable future.”

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Hydro One investment risk reflects Ontario government influence, board shakeup, Avista acquisition uncertainty, regulatory hearings, dividend growth prospects, and utility M&A moves in Peterborough, with stock volatility since the 2015 IPO.

Key Points

Hydro One investment risk stems from political control, governance turnover, regulatory outcomes, and uncertain M&A.

✅ Ontario retains near-50% stake, affecting autonomy and policy risk

✅ Board overhaul and CEO exit create governance uncertainty

✅ Avista deal, OEB hearings, local utility M&A drive outcomes

Hydro One may be only half-owned by the province on Ontario but that’s enough to cause uncertainty about the company’s future, thus making for an investment risk, says Douglas Kee of Leon Frazer & Associates.

Since its IPO in November of 2015, Hydro One has seen its share of ups and downs, including a Q2 profit decline earlier this year, mostly downs at this point. Currently trading at $19.87, the stock has lost 11 per cent of its value in 2018 and 12 per cent over the last 12 months, despite a one-time gain boosting Q2 profit that followed a court ruling.

This year has been a turbulent one, to say the least, as newly elected Ontario premier Doug Ford made good this summer on his campaign promise re Hydro One by forcing the resignation of the company’s 14-person board of directors along with the retirement of its chief executive, an event that saw Hydro One shares fall amid the turmoil. An interim CEO has been found and a new 10-person board and chairman put in place, but Kee says it’s unclear what impact the shakeup will ultimately have, other than delaying a promising-looking deal to purchase US utility Avista Corp, with the companies moving to ask the U.S. regulator to reconsider the order.

Douglas Kee’s take on Hydro One stock

“We looked at Hydro One a couple of times two years ago and just decided that with the Ontario government’s still owning a big chunk of the company … there are other public companies where you get the same kind of yield, the same kind of dividend growth, so we just avoided it,” says Kee, managing director and chief investment officer with Leon Frazer & Associates, to BNN Bloomberg.

“The old board versus the new board, I’m not sure that there’s much of an improvement. It was politics more than anything,” he says. “The unfortunate part is that the acquisition they were making in the United States is kind of on hold for now. The regulatory procedures have gone ahead but they are worried, and I guess the new board has to make a decision whether to go ahead with it or not.”

“Their transmissions side is coming up for regulatory hearings next year, which could be difficult in Ontario,” says Kee. “The offset to that is that there are a lot of municipal distributions systems in Ontario that may be sold — they bought one in Peterborough recently, which was a good deal for them. There may be more of that coming too.”

Last month, Hydro One reached an agreement with the City of Peterborough to buy its Peterborough Distribution utility which serves about 37,000 customers for $105 million. Another deal to purchase Orillia Power Distribution Corp for $41 million has been cancelled after an appeal to the Ontario Energy Board was denied in late August. Hydro One’s sought-after Avista Corp acquisition is reported to be worth $7 billion.

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Europe 2023 Energy Shortfall underscores how weak hydro and nuclear offset record solar and wind, tightening grids as natural gas supplies shrink and demand rebounds, heightening risks of electricity shortages across key economies.

Key Points

A regional gap as weak hydro and nuclear offset record solar and wind, straining supply as gas stays tight.

✅ Hydro and nuclear output fell sharply in early 2023

✅ Record solar and wind could not offset the deficit

✅ Industrial demand rebound pressures limited gas supplies

Shortfalls in Europe's hydro and nuclear output have more than offset record electricity generation from wind and solar power sites over the first quarter of 2023, leaving the region vulnerable to acute energy shortages for the second straight year.

European countries fast-tracked renewable energy capacity development in 2022 in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February, which upended natural gas flows to the region and sent power prices soaring.

Europe lifted renewable energy supply capacity by a record 57,290 megawatts in 2022, or by nearly 9%, according to the International Energy Agency (IRENA), amid a scramble to replace imported Russian gas with cleaner, home-grown energy.

However, steep drops in both hydro and nuclear output - two key sources of non-emitting energy - mean Europe's power producers have limited ways to lift overall electricity generation, as the region is losing nuclear power at a critical moment, just as the region's economies start to reboot after last year's energy shock.

POWER PLATEAU
Europe's total electricity generation over the first quarter of 2023 hit 1,213 terawatt hours, or roughly 6.4% less than during the same period in 2022, according to data from think tank Ember.

At the same time, European power hits records during extreme heat as plants struggle to cool, exacerbating supply risks.

As Europe's total electricity demand levels were in post-COVID-19 expansion mode in early 2022 before Russia's so-called special operation sent power costs to record highs amid debates over how electricity is priced in Europe, it makes sense that overall electricity use was comparatively stunted in early 2023.

However, efforts are now underway to revive activity at scores of European factories, industrial plants and production lines that were shuttered or curtailed in 2022, so Europe's collective electricity consumption totals are set to trend steadily higher over the remainder of 2023.

With Russian natural gas unavailable in the previous quantities due to sanctions and supply issues, Europe's power producers will need to deploy alternative energy sources, including renewables poised to eclipse coal globally, to feed that increase in power demand.

And following the large jump in renewable capacity brought online in 2022, utilities can deploy more low-emissions energy than ever before across Europe's electricity grids.

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London Tube Strikes Economic Impact highlights transport disruption reducing foot traffic, commuter flows, and tourism, squeezing small businesses, hospitality revenue, and citywide growth while business leaders urge negotiations, resolution, and policy responses to stabilize operations.

Key Points

Reduced transport options cut foot traffic and sales, straining small businesses and slowing London-wide growth.

✅ Hospitality venues report lower revenue and temporary closures

✅ Commuter and tourism declines reduce daily sales and bookings

✅ Business groups urge swift negotiations to restore services

London's economy is facing significant challenges due to ongoing tube strikes, challenges that are compounded by scrutiny of UK energy network profits and broader cost pressures across sectors, with businesses across the city experiencing disruptions that are impacting their operations and bottom lines.

Impact on Small Businesses

Small businesses, particularly those in the hospitality sector, are bearing the brunt of the disruptions caused by the strikes. Many establishments rely on the steady flow of commuters and tourists that the tube system facilitates, while also hoping for measures like temporary electricity bill relief that can ease operating costs during downturns. With reduced transportation options, foot traffic has dwindled, leading to decreased sales and, in some cases, temporary closures.

Economic Consequences

The strikes are not only affecting individual businesses but are also having a ripple effect on the broader economy, a dynamic seen when commercial electricity consumption plummeted in B.C. during the pandemic. The reduced activity in key sectors is contributing to a slowdown in economic growth, echoing periods when BC Hydro demand fell 10% and prompting policy responses such as Ontario electricity rate reductions for businesses, with potential long-term consequences if the disruptions continue.

Calls for Resolution

Business leaders and industry groups are urging for a swift resolution to the strikes. They emphasize the need for dialogue between the involved parties to reach an agreement that minimizes further economic damage and restores normalcy to the city's transportation system.

The ongoing tube strikes in London are causing significant disruptions to the city's economy, particularly affecting small businesses that depend on the efficient movement of people. Immediate action is needed to address the issues, drawing on tools like a subsidized hydro plan used elsewhere to spur recovery, to prevent further economic downturn.

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UK Offshore Wind Expansion will make wind the main power source, driving renewable energy, offshore projects, smart grids, battery storage, and interconnectors to cut carbon emissions, boost exports, and attract global investment.

Key Points

A UK strategy to scale offshore wind, integrate smart grids and storage, cut emissions and drive investment and exports

✅ 30% energy target by 2030, backed by CfD support

✅ 250m industry investment and smart grid build-out

✅ Battery storage and interconnectors balance intermittency

Plans are afoot to make wind the UKs main power source for the first time in history amid ambitious targets to generate 30 percent of its total energy supply by 2030, up from 8 percent at present.

A recently inked deal will see the offshore wind industry invest 250 million into technology and infrastructure over the next 11 years, with the government committing up to 557 million in support, under a renewable energy auction that boosts wind and tidal projects, as part of its bid to lower carbon emissions to 80 percent of 1990 levels by 2050.

Offshore wind investment is crucial for meeting decarbonisation targets while increasing energy production, says Dominic Szanto, Director, Energy and Infrastructure at JLL. The governments approach over the last seven years has been to promise support to the industry, provided that cost reduction targets were met. This certainty has led to the development of larger, more efficient wind turbines which means the cost of offshore wind energy is a third of what it was in 2012.

Boosting the wind industry

Offshore wind power has been gathering pace in the UK and has grown despite COVID-19 disruptions in recent years. Earlier this year, the Hornsea One wind farm, the worlds largest offshore generator which is located off the Yorkshire coast, started producing electricity. When fully operational in 2020, the project will supply energy to over a million homes, and a further two phases are planned over the coming decade.

Over 10 gigawatts of offshore wind either already has government support or is eligible to apply for it in the near future, following a 10 GW contract award that underscores momentum, representing over 30 billion of likely investment opportunities.

Capital is coming from European utility firms and increasingly from Asian strategic investors looking to learn from the UKs experience. The attractive government support mechanism means banks are keen to lend into the sector, says Szanto.

New investment in the UKs offshore wind sector will also help to counter the growing influence of China. The UK is currently the worlds largest offshore wind market, but by 2021 it will be outstripped by China.

Through its new deal, the government hopes to increase wind power exports fivefold to 2.6 billion per year by 2030, with the UKs manufacturing and engineering skills driving projects in growth markets in Europe and Asia and in developing countries supported by the World Bank support through financing and advisory programs.

Over the next two decades, theres a massive opportunity for the UK to maintain its industry leading position by designing, constructing, operating and financing offshore wind projects, says Szanto. Building on projects such as the Hywind project in Scotland, it could become a major export to countries like the USA and Japan, where U.S. lessons from the U.K. are informing policy and coastal waters are much deeper.

Wind-powered smart grids

As wind power becomes a major contributor to the UKs energy supply, which will be increasingly made up of renewable sources in coming decades, there are key infrastructure challenges to overcome.

A real challenge is that the UKs power generation is becoming far more decentralised, with smaller power stations such as onshore wind farms and solar parks and more prosumers residential houses with rooftop solar coupled with a significant rise in intermittent generation, says Szanto. The grid was never designed to manage energy use like that.

One potential part of the solution is to use offshore wind farms in other sites in European waters.

By developing connections between wind projects from neighbouring countries, it will create super-grids that will help mitigate intermittency issues, says Szanto.

More advanced energy storage batteries will also be key for when less energy is generated on still days. There is a growing need for batteries that can store large amounts of energy and smart technology to discharge that energy. Were going through a revolution where new technology companies are working to enable a much smarter grid.

Future smart grids, based on developing technology such as blockchain, might enable the direct trading of energy between generators and consumers, with algorithms that can manage many localised sources and, critically, ensure a smooth power supply.

Investors seeking a higher-yield market are increasingly turning to battery technology, Szanto says. In a future smart grid, for example, batteries could store electricity bought cheaply at low-usage times then sold at peak usage prices or be used to provide backup energy services to other companies.

Majors investing in the transition

Its not just new energy technology companies driving change; established oil and gas companies are accelerating spending on renewable energy. Shell has committed to $1-2 billion per year on clean energy technologies out of a $25-30 billion budget, while Equinor plans to spend 15-20 percent of its budget on renewables by 2030.

The oil and gas majors have the global footprint to deliver offshore wind projects in every country, says Szanto. This could also create co-investment opportunities for other investors in the sector especially as nascent wind markets such as the U.S., where the U.S. offshore wind timeline is still developing, and Japan evolve.

European energy giants, for example, have bid to build New Yorks first offshore wind project.

As offshore wind becomes a globalised sector, with a trillion-dollar market outlook emerging, the major fuel companies will have increasingly large roles. They have the resources to undertake the years-long, cost-intensive developments of wind projects, driven by a need for new business models as the world looks beyond carbon-based fuels, says Szanto.

Oil and gas heavyweights are also making wind, solar and energy storage acquisitions BP acquired solar developer Lightsource and car-charging network Chargemaster, while Shell spent $400 million on solar and battery companies.

The public perception is that renewable energy is niche, but its now a mainstream form of energy generation., concludes Szanto.

Every nation in the world is aligned in wanting a decarbonised future. In terms of electricity, that means renewable energy and for offshore wind energy, the outlook is extremely positive.

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