Frustration Mounts as Houston's Power Outage Extends


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Houston Power Outage Heatwave intensifies a prolonged blackout, straining the grid and infrastructure resilience; emergency response, cooling centers, and power restoration efforts race to protect vulnerable residents amid extreme temperatures and climate risks.

 

Key Points

A multi-day blackout and heatwave straining Houston's grid, limiting cooling, and prompting emergency response.

✅ Fourth day without power amid dangerous heat

✅ Grid failures expose infrastructure vulnerabilities

✅ Cooling centers, aid groups support vulnerable residents

 

Houston is enduring significant frustration and hardship as a power outage stretches into its fourth day amid a sweltering heatwave. The extended blackout has exacerbated the challenges faced by residents in one of the nation’s largest and most dynamic cities, underscoring the critical need for reliable infrastructure and effective emergency response systems.

The power outage began early in the week, coinciding with a severe heatwave that has driven temperatures to dangerous levels. With the city experiencing some of the highest temperatures of the year, the lack of electricity has left residents without essential cooling, contributing to widespread discomfort and health risks. The heatwave has placed an added strain on Houston's already overburdened power grid, which has struggled to cope with the soaring demand for air conditioning and cooling.

The prolonged outage has led to escalating frustration among residents. Many households are grappling with sweltering indoor temperatures, leading to uncomfortable living conditions and concerns about the impact on vulnerable populations, including the elderly, young children, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions. The lack of power has also disrupted daily routines, as morning routine disruptions in London demonstrate, including access to refrigeration for food, which has led to spoilage and further complications.

Emergency services and utility companies have been working around the clock to restore power, but progress has been slow, echoing how Texas utilities struggled to restore power during Hurricane Harvey, as crews contended with access constraints. The complexity of the situation, combined with the high demand for repairs and the challenging weather conditions, has made it difficult to address the widespread outages efficiently. As the days pass, the situation has become increasingly dire, with residents growing more impatient and anxious about when they might see a resolution.

Local officials and utility providers have been actively communicating with the public, providing updates on the status of repairs and efforts to restore power. However, the communication has not always been timely or clear, leading to further frustration among those affected. The sense of uncertainty and lack of reliable information has compounded the difficulties faced by residents, who are left to manage the impacts of the outage with limited guidance.

The situation has also raised questions about the resilience of Houston’s power infrastructure. The outage has highlighted vulnerabilities in the city's energy grid, similar to how a recent windstorm caused significant outages elsewhere, which has faced previous challenges but has not experienced an extended failure of this magnitude in recent years. The inability of the grid to withstand the extreme heat and maintain service during a critical time underscores the need for infrastructure improvements and upgrades to better handle similar situations in the future.

In response to the crisis, community organizations and local businesses have stepped up to provide support to those in need, much like Toronto's cleanup after severe flooding mobilized volunteers and services, in order to aid affected residents. Cooling centers have been established to offer relief from the heat, providing a respite for individuals who are struggling to stay cool at home. Additionally, local food banks and charitable organizations are distributing essential supplies to those affected by food spoilage and other challenges caused by the power outage.

The power outage and heatwave have also sparked broader discussions about climate resilience and preparedness. Extreme weather events and prolonged heatwaves are becoming increasingly common due to climate change, as strong winds knocked out power across the Miami Valley recently, raising concerns about how cities and infrastructure systems can adapt to these new realities. The current situation in Houston serves as a stark reminder of the importance of investing in resilient infrastructure and developing comprehensive emergency response plans to mitigate the impacts of such events.

As the outage continues, there is a growing call for improved strategies to manage power grid failures, with examples like the North Seattle outage affecting 13,000 underscoring the need, and better support for residents during crises. Advocates are urging for a reevaluation of emergency response protocols, increased investment in infrastructure upgrades, and enhanced communication systems to ensure that the public receives timely and accurate information during emergencies.

In summary, Houston's power outage, now extending into its fourth day amid extreme heat, has caused significant frustration and hardship for residents. The prolonged disruption has underscored the need for more resilient energy infrastructure, as seen when power outages persisted for hundreds in Toronto, and effective emergency response measures. With temperatures soaring and the situation continuing to unfold, the city faces a critical challenge in restoring power, managing the impacts on its residents, and preparing for future emergencies. The crisis highlights broader issues related to infrastructure resilience and climate adaptation, emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies to address and mitigate the effects of extreme weather events.

 

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Wartsila to Power USA’s First Battery-Electric High-Speed Ferries

San Francisco Battery-Electric Ferries will deliver zero-emission, high-speed passenger service powered by Wartsila electric propulsion, EPMS, IAS, batteries, and shore power, advancing maritime decarbonization under the REEF program and USCG Subchapter T standards.

 

Key Points

They are the first US zero-emission high-speed passenger ferries using integrated electric propulsion and shore power

✅ Dual 625 kW motors enable up to 24-knot service speeds

✅ EPMS, IAS, DC hub, and shore power streamline operations

✅ Built to USCG Subchapter T for safety and compliance

 

Wartsila, a global leader in sustainable marine technology, has been selected to supply the electric propulsion system for the United States' first fully battery-electric, zero-emission high-speed passenger ferries. This significant development marks a pivotal step in the decarbonization of maritime transport, aligning with California's ambitious environmental goals, including recent clean-transport investments across ports and corridors.

A Leap Toward Sustainable Maritime Transport

The project, commissioned by All American Marine (AAM) on behalf of San Francisco Bay Ferry, involves the construction of three 150-passenger ferries, reflecting broader U.S. advances like the Washington State Ferries hybrid upgrade now underway. These vessels will operate on new routes connecting the rapidly developing neighborhoods of Treasure Island and Mission Bay to downtown San Francisco. The ferries are part of the Rapid Electric Emission Free (REEF) Ferry Program, a comprehensive initiative by San Francisco Bay Ferry to transition its fleet to zero-emission propulsion technology. The first vessel is expected to join the fleet in early 2027.

Wärtsilä’s Role in the Project

Wärtsilä's involvement encompasses the supply of a comprehensive electric propulsion system, including the Energy and Power Management System (EPMS), integrated automation system (IAS), batteries, DC hub, transformers, electric motors, and shore power supply. This extensive scope underscores Wärtsilä’s expertise in providing integrated solutions for emission-free marine transportation. The company's extensive global experience in developing and supplying integrated systems and solutions for zero-emission high-speed vessels, as seen with electric ships on the B.C. coast operating today, was a key consideration in the selection process.

Technical Specifications of the Ferries

The ferries will be 100 feet (approximately 30 meters) in length, with a beam of 26 feet and a draft of 5.9 feet. Each vessel will be powered by dual 625-kilowatt electric motors, enabling them to achieve speeds of up to 24 knots. The vessels will be built to U.S. Coast Guard Subchapter T standards, ensuring compliance with stringent safety regulations.

Environmental and Operational Benefits

The transition to battery-electric propulsion offers numerous environmental and operational advantages. Electric ferries produce zero emissions during operation, as demonstrated by Berlin's electric ferry deployments, significantly reducing the carbon footprint of maritime transport. Additionally, electric propulsion systems are generally more efficient and require less maintenance compared to traditional diesel engines, leading to lower operational costs over the vessel's lifespan.

Broader Implications for Maritime Decarbonization

This project is part of a broader movement toward sustainable maritime transport in the United States. San Francisco Bay Ferry has also approved the purchase of two larger 400-passenger battery-electric ferries for transbay routes, further expanding its commitment to zero-emission operations. The agency has secured approximately $200 million in funding from local, state, and federal sources, echoing infrastructure bank support seen in B.C., to support these initiatives, including vessel construction and terminal electrification.

Wartsila’s involvement in this project highlights the company's leadership in the maritime industry's transition to sustainable energy solutions, including hybrid-electric pathways like BC Ferries' new hybrids now in service. With a proven track record in supplying integrated systems for zero-emission vessels, Wärtsilä is well-positioned to support the global shift toward decarbonized maritime transport.

As the first fully battery-electric high-speed passenger ferries in the United States, these vessels represent a significant milestone in the journey toward sustainable and environmentally responsible maritime transportation, paralleling regional advances such as the Kootenay Lake electric-ready ferry entering service. The collaboration between Wärtsilä, All American Marine, and San Francisco Bay Ferry exemplifies the collective effort required to realize a zero-emission future for the maritime industry.

The deployment of these battery-electric ferries in San Francisco Bay not only advances the city's environmental objectives but also sets a precedent for other regions to follow. With continued innovation and collaboration, the maritime industry can look forward to a future where sustainable practices are the standard, not the exception.

 

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Germany extends nuclear power amid energy crisis

Germany Nuclear Power Extension keeps Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2, and Emsland running as Olaf Scholz tackles the energy crisis, soaring gas prices, and EU winter demand, prioritizing grid stability amid the Ukraine war.

 

Key Points

A temporary policy keeping three German reactors online to enhance grid stability and national energy security.

✅ Extends Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2, and Emsland operations

✅ Addresses EU energy crisis and soaring gas prices

✅ Prioritizes grid stability while coal phase-out advances

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has ordered the country's three remaining nuclear power stations to keep operating until mid-April, signalling a nuclear U-turn as the energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine hurts the economy.

Originally Germany planned to phase out all three by the end of this year, continuing its nuclear phaseout policy at the time.

Mr Scholz's order overruled the Greens in his coalition, who wanted two plants kept on standby, to be used if needed.

Nuclear power provides 6% of Germany's electricity.

The decision to phase it out was taken by former chancellor Angela Merkel after Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.

But gas prices have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, which disrupted Russia's huge oil and gas exports to the EU, though some officials argue that nuclear would do little to solve the gas issue in the short term. In August Russia turned off the gas flowing to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 undersea pipeline.

After relying so heavily on Russian gas Germany is now scrambling to maintain sufficient reserves for the winter. The crisis has also prompted it to restart mothballed coal-fired power stations, with coal generating about a third of its electricity currently, though the plan is to phase out coal in the drive for green energy.

Last year Germany got 55% of its gas from Russia, but in the summer that dropped to 35% and it is declining further.

EU leaders consider how to cap gas prices
France sends Germany gas for first time amid crisis
Chancellor Scholz's third coalition partner, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), welcomed his move to keep nuclear power as part of the mix. The three remaining nuclear plants are Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2 and Emsland, which were ultimately shut down after the extension.

The Social Democrat (SPD) chancellor also called for ministries to present an "ambitious" law to boost energy efficiency and to put into law a phase-out of coal by 2030, aiming for a coal- and nuclear-free economy among major industrial nations.

Last week climate activist Greta Thunberg said it was a "mistake" for Germany to press on with nuclear decommissioning while resorting to coal again, intensifying debate over a nuclear option for climate goals nationwide.

 

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What to know about the big climate change meeting in Katowice, Poland

COP24 Climate Talks in Poland gather nearly 200 nations to finalize the Paris Agreement rulebook, advance the Talanoa Dialogue, strengthen emissions reporting and transparency, and align finance, technology transfer, and IPCC science for urgent mitigation.

 

Key Points

UNFCCC summit in Katowice to finalize Paris rules, enhance transparency, and drive stronger emissions cuts.

✅ Paris rulebook on reporting, transparency, markets, and timelines

✅ Talanoa Dialogue to assess gaps and raise ambition by 2020

✅ Finance and tech transfer for developing countries under UNFCCC

 

Delegates from nearly 200 countries have assembled this month in Katowice, Poland — the heart of coal country — to try to move the ball forward on battling climate change.

It’s now the 24th annual meeting, or “COP” — conference of the parties — under the landmark U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, which the United States signed under then-President George H.W. Bush in 1992. More significantly, it’s the third such meeting since nations adopted the Paris climate agreement in 2015, widely seen at the time as a landmark moment in which, at last, developed and developing countries would share a path toward cutting greenhouse gas emissions, as Obama's clean energy push sought to lock in momentum.

But the surge of optimism that came with Paris has faded lately. The United States, the second largest greenhouse gas emitter, said it would withdraw from the agreement, though it has not formally done so yet. Many other countries are off target when it comes to meeting their initial round of Paris promises — promises that are widely acknowledged to be too weak to begin with. And emissions have begun to rise after a brief hiatus that had lent some hope of progress.

The latest science, meanwhile, is pointing toward increasingly dire outcomes. The amount of global warming that the world already has seen — 1 degree Celsius, 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit — has upended the Arctic, is killing coral reefs and may have begun to destabilize a massive part of Antarctica. A new report from the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), requested by the countries that assembled in Paris to be timed for this year’s meeting, finds a variety of increasingly severe effects as soon as a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius arrives — an outcome that can’t be avoided without emissions cuts so steep that they would require societal transformations without any known historical parallel, the panel found.

It’s in this context that countries are meeting in Poland, with expectations and stakes high.

So what’s on the agenda in Poland?

The answer starts with the Paris agreement, which was negotiated three years ago, has been signed by 197 countries and is a mere 27 pages long. It covers a lot, laying out a huge new regime not only for the world as a whole to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, but for each individual country to regularly make new emissions-cutting pledges, strengthen them over time, report emissions to the rest of the world and much more. It also addresses financial obligations that developed countries have to developing countries, including how to achieve clean and universal electricity at scale, and how technologies will be transferred to help that.

But those 27 pages leave open to interpretation many fine points for how it will all work. So in Poland, countries are performing a detailed annotation of the Paris agreement, drafting a “rule book” that will span hundreds of pages.

That may sound bureaucratic, but it’s key to addressing many of the flash points. For instance, it will be hard for countries to trust that their fellow nations are cutting emissions without clear standards for reporting and vetting. Not everybody is ready to accept a process like the one followed in the United States, which not only publishes its emissions totals but also has an independent review of the findings.

“A number of the developing countries are resisting that kind of model for themselves. They see it as an intrusion on their sovereignty,” said Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists and one of the many participants in Poland this week. “That’s going to be a pretty tough issue at the end of the day.”

It’s hardly the only one. Also unclear is what countries will do after the time frames on their current emissions-cutting promises are up, which for many is 2025 or 2030. Will all countries then start reporting newer and more ambitious promises every five years? Every 10 years?

That really matters when five years of greenhouse gas emissions — currently about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually — are capable of directly affecting the planet’s temperature.

What can we expect each day?

The conference is in its second week, when higher-level players — basically, the equivalent of cabinet-level leaders in the United States — are in Katowice to advance the negotiations.

As this happens, several big events are on the agenda. On Tuesday and Wednesday is the “Talanoa Dialogue,” which will bring together world leaders in a series of group meetings to discuss these key questions: “Where are we? Where do we want to go? How do we get there?”

Friday is the last day of the conference, but pros know these events tend to run long. On Friday — or after — we will be waiting for an overall statement or decision from the meeting which may signal how much has been achieved.

What is the “Talanoa Dialogue”?

“Talanoa” is a word used in Fiji and in many other Pacific islands to refer to “the sharing of ideas, skills and experience through storytelling.” This is the process that organizers settled on to fulfill a plan formed in Paris in 2015.

That year, along with signing the Paris agreement, nations released a decision that in 2018 there should be a “facilitative dialogue" among the countries “to take stock” of where their efforts stood to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This was important because going into that Paris meeting, it was already clear that countries' promises were not strong enough to hold global warming below a rise of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures.

This dialogue, in the Talanoa process, was meant to prompt reflection and maybe even soul searching about what more would have to be done. Throughout the year, “inputs” to the Talanoa dialogue — most prominently, the recent report by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the meaning and consequences of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming —have been compiled and synthesized. Now, over two days in Poland, countries' ministers will assemble to share stories in small groups about what is working and what is not and to assess where the world as a whole is on achieving the required greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

What remains to be seen is whether this process will culminate in any kind of product or statement that calls clearly for immediate, strong ramping up of climate change promises across the world.

With the clock ticking, will countries do anything to increase their ambition at this meeting?

If negotiating the Paris rule book sounds disappointingly technical, well, you’re not the only one feeling that way. Pressure is mounting for countries to accomplish something more than that in Poland — to at minimum give a strong signal that they understand that the science is looking worse and worse, and the world’s progress on the global energy transition isn’t matching that outlook.

“The bigger issue is how we’re going to get to an outcome on greater ambition,” said Lou Leonard, senior vice president for climate and energy at the World Wildlife Fund, who is in Poland observing the talks. “And I think the first week was not kind on moving that part of the agenda forward.”

Most countries are not likely to make new emissions-cutting promises this week. But there are two ways that the meeting could give a strong statement that countries should — or will — come up with new promises at least by 2020. That’s when extremely dramatic emissions cuts would have to start, including progress toward net-zero electricity by mid-century, according to the recent report on 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.

The first is the aforementioned “Talanoa dialogue” (see above). It’s possible that the outcome of the dialogue could be a statement acknowledging that the world isn’t nearly far enough along and calling for much stronger steps.

There will also be a decision text released for the meeting as a whole, which could potentially send a signal. Leonard said he hopes that would include details for the next steps that will put the world on a better course.

“We have to create milestones, and the politics around it that will pressure countries to do something that quite frankly they don’t want to do,” he said. “It’s not going to be easy. That’s why we need a process that will help make it happen. And make the most of the IPCC report that was designed to come out right now so it could do this for us. That’s why we have it, and it needs to serve that role.”

The United States says it will withdraw from the agreement, so what role is it playing in Poland?

Despite President Trump’s pledge to withdraw, the United States remains in the Paris agreement (for now) and has sent a delegation of 44 people to Poland, largely from the State Department but also from the Environmental Protection Agency, Energy Department and even the White House, while domestically a historic U.S. climate law has recently passed to accelerate clean energy. Many of these career government officials remain deeply engaged in hashing out details of the agreement.

Still, the country as a whole is being cast in an antagonistic role in the talks.

 

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Two huge wind farms boost investment in America’s heartland

MidAmerican Energy Wind XI expands Iowa wind power with the Beaver Creek and Prairie farms, 169 turbines and 338 MW, delivering renewable energy, grid reliability, rural jobs, and long-term tax revenue through major investment.

 

Key Points

MidAmerican Energy Wind XI is a $3.6B Iowa wind buildout adding 2,000 MW to enhance reliability, jobs, and tax revenue.

✅ 169 turbines at Beaver Creek and Prairie deliver 338 MW.

✅ Wind supplies 36.6 percent of Iowa electricity generation.

✅ Projects forecast $62.4M in property taxes over 20 years.

 

Power company MidAmerican Energy recently announced the beginning of operations at two huge wind farms in the US state of Iowa.

The two projects, called Beaver Creek and Prairie, total 169 turbines and have a combined capacity of 338 megawatts (MW), enough to meet the annual electricity needs of 140,000 homes in the state.

“We’re committed to providing reliable service and outstanding value to our customers, and wind energy accomplishes both,” said Mike Fehr, vice president of resource development at MidAmerican. “Wind energy is good for our customers, and it’s an abundant, renewable resource that also energizes the economy.”

The wind farms form part of MidAmerican Energy’s major Wind XI project, which will see an extra 2,000MW of wind power built, and $3.6 billion invested amid notable wind farm acquisitions shaping the market by the end of 2019. The company estimates it is the largest economic development project in Iowa’s history.

Iowa is something of a hidden powerhouse in American wind energy. The technology provides an astonishing 36.6 percent of the state’s entire electricity generation and plays a growing role in the U.S. electricity mix according to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). It also has the second largest amount of installed capacity in the nation at 6917MW; Texas is first with over 21,000MW.

Along with capital investment, wind power brings significant job opportunities and tax revenues for the state. An estimated 9,000 jobs are supported by the industry, something a U.S. wind jobs forecast stated could grow to over 15,000 within a couple of years.

MidAmerican Energy is also keen to stress the economic benefits of its new giant projects, claiming that they will bring in $62.4 million of property tax revenue over their 20-year lifetime.

Tom Kiernan, AWEA’s CEO, revealed last year that, as the most-used source of renewable electricity in the U.S., wind energy is providing more than five states in the American Midwest with over 20 percent of electricity generation, “a testament to American leadership and innovation”.

“For these states, and across America, wind is welcome because it means jobs, investment, and a better tomorrow for rural communities”, he added.

 

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Scottish North Sea wind farm to resume construction after Covid-19 stoppage

NnG Offshore Wind Farm restarts construction off Scotland, backed by EDF Renewables and ESB, CfD 2015, 54 turbines, powering 375,000 homes, 500 jobs, delivering GBP 540 million, with Covid-19 safety measures and staggered workforce.

 

Key Points

A 54-turbine Scottish offshore project by EDF Renewables and ESB, resuming to power 375,000 homes and support 500 jobs.

✅ Awarded a CfD in 2015; 54 turbines off Scotland's east coast.

✅ Projected to power 375,000 homes and deliver GBP 540 million locally.

✅ Staggered workforce return with Covid-19 control measures and oversight.

 

Neart Na Gaoithe (NnG) Offshore Wind Farm, owned by  EDF Renewables and Irish firm ESB, stopped construction in March, even as the world's most powerful tidal turbine showcases progress in marine energy.

Project boss Matthias Haag announced last night the 54-turbine wind farm would restart construction this week, as the largest UK offshore wind farm begins supplying power, underscoring sector momentum.

Located off Scotland’s east coast, where wind farms already power millions of homes, it was awarded a Contract for Difference (CfD) in 2015 and will look to generate enough energy to power 375,000 homes.

It is expected to create around 500 jobs, and supply chain growth like GE's new offshore blade factory jobs shows wider industry momentum, while also delivering £540 million to the local economy.

Mr Haag, NnG project director, said the wind farm build would resume with a small, staggered workforce return in line social distancing rules, and with broader energy sector conditions, including Hinkley Point C setbacks that challenge the UK's blueprint.

He added: “Initially, we will only have a few people on site to put in place control measures so the rest of the team can start work safely later that week.

“Once that’s happened we will have a reduced workforce on site, including essential supervisory staff.

“The arrangements we have put in place will be under regular review as we continue to closely monitor Covid-19 and follow the Scottish Government’s guidance.”

NnG wind farm, a 54-turbine projects, was due to begin full offshore construction in June 2020 before the Covid-19 outbreak, at a time when a Scottish tidal project had just demonstrated it could power thousands of homes.

EDF Renewables sold half of the NnG project to Irish firm ESB in November last year, and parent company EDF recently saw the Hinkley C reactor roof lifted into place, highlighting progress alongside renewables.

The first initial payment was understood to be around £50 million.

 

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EIA expects solar and wind to be larger sources of U.S. electricity generation this summer

US Summer Electricity Outlook 2022 projects rising renewable energy generation as utility-scale solar and wind capacity additions surge, while coal declines and natural gas shifts amid higher fuel prices and regional supply constraints.

 

Key Points

An EIA forecast of summer 2022 power: more solar and wind, less coal, and shifting gas use amid higher fuel prices.

✅ Solar +10 million MWh; wind +8 million MWh vs last summer

✅ Coal generation -20 million MWh amid supply constraints, retirements

✅ Gas prices near $9/MMBtu; slight national gen decline

 

In our Summer Electricity Outlook, a supplement to our May 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect the largest increases in U.S. electric power sector generation this summer will come from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar generation. These increases are the result of new capacity additions. We forecast utility-scale solar generation between June and August 2022 will grow by 10 million megawatthours (MWh) compared with the same period last summer, and wind generation will grow by 8 million MWh. Forecast generation from coal and natural gas declines by 26 million MWh this summer, although natural gas generation could increase in some electricity markets where coal supplies are constrained.

For recent context, overall U.S. power generation in January rose 9.3% year over year, the EIA reports.

Wind and solar power electric-generating capacity has been growing steadily in recent years. By the start of June, we estimate the U.S. electric power sector will have 65 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar-generating capacity, a 31% increase in solar capacity since June 2021. Almost one-third of this new solar capacity will be built in the Texas electricity market. The electric power sector will also have an estimated 138 GW of wind capacity online this June, which is a 12% increase from last June.

Along with growth in renewables capacity, we expect that an additional 6 GW of new natural gas combined-cycle generating capacity will come online by June 2022, an increase of 2% from last summer. Despite this increase in capacity, we expect natural gas-fired electricity generation at the national level will be slightly (1.3%) lower than last summer.

We forecast the price of natural gas delivered to electric generators will average nearly $9 per million British thermal units between June and August 2022, which would be more than double the average price last summer. The higher expected natural gas prices and growth in renewable generation will likely lead to less natural gas-fired generation in some regions of the country.

In contrast to renewables and natural gas, the electricity industry has been steadily retiring coal-fired power plants over the past decade. Between June 2021 and June 2022, the electric power sector will have retired 6 GW (2%) of U.S. coal-fired generating capacity.

In previous years, higher natural gas prices would have resulted in more coal-fired electricity generation across the fleet. However, coal-fired power plants have been limited in their ability to replenish their historically low inventories in recent months as a result of mine closures, rail capacity constraints, and labor market tightness. These coal supply constraints, along with continued retirement of generating capacity, contribute to our forecast that U.S. coal-fired generation will decline by 20 million MWh (7%) this summer. In some regions of the country, these coal supply constraints may lead to increased natural gas-fired electricity generation despite higher natural gas prices.
 

 

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