Southern California faces summer power challenge: NERC

By Reuters


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Southern California's electricity system will be challenged this summer, and power emergencies may result if an extended drought leads to massive wildfires, the main U.S. electricity reliability watchdog said.

Southern California is the area that most concerns analysts at the North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC), which issued its summer 2008 outlook recently.

Of Southern California, NERC said, "capacity margins will remain tight. Significant amounts of imported power are required to fortify capacity margins and preserve reliability, resulting in heavily loaded transmission lines into this area during peak conditions.

"As a result, unplanned major transmission or generation outages, or extreme temperatures/demand may lead to resource constraints."

NERC, of Princeton, New Jersey, is responsible for monitoring the reliability of the power grid in the United States, Canada and parts of Mexico.

NERC said voluntary conservation and on-call interruptible loads will likely be necessary more often than usual this summer.

As always, the biggest factor in how much demand will strain the power grids in California and the United States is the weather.

NERC said nationwide, U.S. temperatures were 12 percent warmer than normal in 2007 and 10 percent warmer than normal in 2006.

Last October, wildfires in San Diego County threatened a major transmission line and caused it to go off-line as the San Diego area nearly averted a power crisis, More wildfires could exacerbate an already precarious situation in California this summer, NERC said.

"Drought conditions persisting in Southern California, Nevada, eastern New Mexico and western Texas currently appear to have no impact on reliability, though potential for wildfires as a result of dry conditions can threaten infrastructure and will be monitored throughout the summer months," said the NERC study.

The California Independent System Operator, manager of the power grid on which flows 80 percent of the state's electricity, forecast a summertime peak demand of 49,071 megawatts, NERC noted.

The all-time peak demand in California was reached in July 2006 at 50,270 megawatts.

Cal ISO also saw a 1-in-10 chance that hot weather will increase that peak load forecast by 3,000 megawatts, thus reducing the capacity margin to less than 10 percent without additional power purchases.

Cal ISO spokeswoman Stephanie McCorkle said the grid manager agrees with the NERC assessment that the system needs to be under a careful watch this summer for Southern California. But she said it would take an unlikely confluence of events to create blackouts.

That would mean unexpectedly low imported power from outside California, high generation and/or transmission outages on a hot day, McCorkle said.

"We have more tools in our toolbox than we have had," said Cal ISO "We have more demand-response to tap now," said McCorkle, referring to customers that voluntarily cut use at times of high demand, often in turn for lower power rates.

In addition to high-use business customers, many residential customers have signed to have thermostats monitored remotely.

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Told "no" 37 times, this Indigenous-owned company brought electricity to James Bay anyway

Five Nations Energy Transmission Line connects remote First Nations to the Ontario power grid, delivering clean, reliable electricity to Western James Bay through Indigenous-owned transmission infrastructure, replacing diesel generators and enabling sustainable community growth.

 

Key Points

An Indigenous-owned grid link providing reliable power to Western James Bay First Nations, replacing polluting diesel.

✅ Built by five First Nations; fully Indigenous-owned utility

✅ 270 km line connecting remote James Bay communities

✅ Ended diesel dependence; enabled sustainable development

 

For the Indigenous communities along northern Ontario’s James Bay — the ones that have lived on and taken care of the lands as long as anyone can remember — the new millenium marked the start of a diesel-less future, even as Ontario’s electricity outlook raised concerns about getting dirtier in policy debates. 

While the southern part of the province took Ontario’s power grid for granted, despite lessons from Europe’s power crisis about reliability, the vast majority of these communities had never been plugged in. Their only source of power was a handful of very loud diesel-powered generators. Because of that, daily life in the Attawapiskat, Kashechewan and Fort Albany First Nations involved deliberating a series of tradeoffs. Could you listen to the radio while toasting a piece of bread? How many Christmas lights could you connect before nothing else was usable? Was there enough power to open a new school? 

The communities wanted a safe, reliable, clean alternative, with Manitoba’s clean energy illustrating regional potential, too. So did their chiefs, which is why they passed a resolution in 1996 to connect the area to Ontario’s grid, not just for basic necessities but to facilitate growth and development, and improve their communities’ quality of life. 

The idea was unthinkable at the time — scorned and dismissed by those who held the keys to Ontario’s (electrical) power, much like independent power projects can be in other jurisdictions. Even some in the community didn’t fully understand it. When the idea was first proposed at a gathering of Nishnawbe Aski Nation, which represents 49 First Nations, one attendee said the only way he could picture the connection was as “a little extension cord running through the bush from Moosonee.” 

But the leadership of Attawapiskat, Kashechewan and Fort Albany First Nations had been dreaming and planning. In 1997, along with members of Taykwa Tagamou and Moose Cree First Nations, they created the first, and thus far only, fully Indigenous-owned energy company in Canada: Five Nations Energy Inc., as partnerships like an OPG First Nation hydro project would later show in action, too. 

Over the next five years, the organization built Omushkego Ishkotayo, the Cree name for the Western James Bay transmission line: “Omushkego” refers to the Swampy Cree people, and “Ishkotayo” to hydroelectric power, while other regions were commissioning new BC generating stations in parallel. The 270-kilometre-long transmission line is in one of the most isolated regions of Ontario, one that can only be accessed by plane, except for a few months in winter when ice roads are strong enough to drive on. The project went online in 2001, bringing reliable power to over 7,000 people who were previously underserved by the province’s energy providers. It also, somewhat controversially, enabled Ontario’s first diamond mine in Attawapiskat territory.

The future the First Nations created 25 years ago is blissfully quiet, now that the diesel generators are shut off. “When the power went on, you could hear the birds,” Patrick Chilton, the CEO of Five Nations Energy, said with a smile. “Our communities were glowing.”

Power, politics and money: Five Nations Energy needed government, banks and builders on board
Chilton took over in 2013 after the former CEO, his brother Ed, passed away. “This was all his idea,” Chilton told The Narwhal in a conversation over Zoom from his office in Timmins, Ont. The company’s story has never been told before in full, he said, because he felt “vulnerable” to the forces that fought against Omushkego Ishkotayo or didn’t understand it, a dynamic underscored by Canada’s looming power problem reporting in recent years. 

The success of Five Nations Energy is a tale of unwavering determination and imagination, Chilton said, and it started with his older brother. “Ed was the first person who believed a transmission line was possible,” he said.

In a Timmins Daily Press death notice published July 2, 2013, Ed Chilton is described as having “a quiet but profound impact on the establishment of agreements and enterprises benefitting First Nations peoples and their lands.” Chilton doesn’t describe him that way, exactly. 

“If you knew my brother, he was very stubborn,” he said. A certified engineering technologist, Ed was a visionary whose whole life was defined by the transmission line. He was the first to approach the chiefs with the idea, the first to reach out to energy companies and government officials and the one who persuaded thousands of people in remote, underserved communities that it was possible to bring power to their region.

After that 1996 meeting of Nishnawbe Aski Nation, there came a four-year-long effort to convince the rest of Ontario, and the country, the project was possible and financially viable. The chiefs of the five First Nations took their idea to the halls of power: Queen’s Park, Parliament Hill and the provincial power distributor Hydro One (then Ontario Hydro). 

“All of them said no,” Chilton said. “They saw it as near to impossible — the idea that you could build a transmission line in the ‘swamp,’ as they called it.” The Five Nations Energy team kept a document at the time tracking how many times they heard no; it topped out at 37. 

One of the worst times was in 1998, at a meeting on the 19th floor of the Ontario Hydro building in the heart of downtown Toronto. There, despite all their preparation and planning, a senior member of the Ontario Hydro team told Chilton, Martin and other chiefs “you’ll build that line over my dead body,” Chilton recalled. 

At the time, Chilton said, Ontario Hydro was refusing to cooperate: unwilling to let go of its monopoly over transmission lines, but also saying it was unable to connect new houses in the First Nations to diesel generators it said were at maximum capacity. (Ontario Hydro no longer exists; Hydro One declined to comment.)

“There’s always naysayers no matter what you’re doing,” Martin said. “What we were doing had never been done before. So of course people were telling us how we had never managed something of this size or a budget of this size.” 

“[Our people] basically told them to blow it up your ass. We can do it,” Chilton said.

So the chiefs of the five nations did something they’d never done before: they went to all of the big banks and many, many charitable foundations trying to get the money, a big ask for a project of this scale, in this location. Without outside support, their pitch was that they’d build it themselves.

This was the hardest part of the process, said Lawrence Martin, the former Grand Chief of Mushkegowuk Tribal Council and a member of the Five Nations Energy board. “We didn’t know how to finance something like this, to get loans,” he told The Narwhal. “That was the toughest task for all of us to achieve.”

Eventually, they got nearly $50 million in funding from a series of financial organizations including the Bank of Montreal, Pacific and Western Capital, the Northern Ontario Heritage Fund Corporation (an Ontario government agency) and the engineering and construction company SNC Lavalin, which did an assessment of the area and deemed the project viable. 

And in 1999, Ed Chilton, other members of the Chilton family and the chiefs were able to secure an agreement with Ontario Hydro that would allow them to buy electricity from the province and sell it to their communities. 

 

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Is tidal energy the surge remote coastal communities need?

BC Tidal Energy Micro-Grids harness predictable tidal currents to replace diesel in remote Indigenous coastal communities, integrating marine renewables, storage, and demand management for resilient off-grid power along Vancouver Island and Haida Gwaii.

 

Key Points

Community-run tidal turbines and storage deliver reliable, diesel-free electricity to remote B.C. coastal communities.

✅ Predictable power from tidal currents reduces diesel dependence

✅ Integrates storage, demand management, and microgrid controls

✅ Local jobs via marine supply chains and community ownership

 

Many remote West Coast communities are reliant on diesel for electricity generation, which poses a number of negative economic and environmental effects.

But some sites along B.C.’s extensive coastline are ideal for tidal energy micro-grids that may well be the answer for off-grid communities to generate clean power, suggested experts at a COAST (Centre for Ocean Applied Sustainable Technologies) virtual event Wednesday.

There are 40 isolated coastal communities, many Indigenous communities, and 32 of them are primarily reliant on diesel for electricity generation, said Ben Whitby, program manager at PRIMED, a marine renewable energy research lab at the University of Victoria (UVic).

Besides being a costly and unreliable source of energy, there are environmental and community health considerations associated with shipping diesel to remote communities and running generators, Whitby said.

“It's not purely an economic question,” he said.

“You've got the emissions associated with diesel generation. There's also the risks of transporting diesel … and sometimes in a lot of remote communities on Vancouver Island, when deliveries of diesel don't come through, they end up with no power for three or four days at a time.”

The Heiltsuk First Nation, which suffered a 110,000-litre diesel spill in its territorial waters in 2016, is an unfortunate case study for the potential environmental, social, and cultural risks remote coastal communities face from the transport of fossil fuels along the rough shoreline.

A U.S. barge hauling fuel for coastal communities in Alaska ran aground in Gale Pass, fouling a sacred and primary Heiltsuk food-harvesting area.

There are a number of potential tidal energy sites near off-grid communities along the mainland, on both sides of Vancouver Island, and in the Haida Gwaii region, Whitby said.

Tidal energy exploits the natural ebb and flow of the coast’s tidal water using technologies like underwater kite turbines to capture currents, and is a highly predictable source of renewable energy, he said.

Micro-grids are self-reliant energy systems drawing on renewables from ocean, wave power resources, wind, solar, small hydro, and geothermal sources.

The community, rather than a public utility like BC Hydro, is responsible for demand management, storage, and generation with the power systems running independently or alongside backup fuel generators — offering the operators a measure of energy sovereignty.

Depending on proximity, cost, and renewable solutions, tidal energy isn’t necessarily the solution for every community, Whitby noted, adding that in comparison to hydro, tidal energy is still more expensive.

However, the best candidates for tidal energy are small, off-grid communities largely dependent on costly fossil fuels, Whitby said.

“That's really why the focus in B.C. is at a smaller scale,” he said.

“The time it would take (these communities) to recoup any capital investment is a lot shorter.

“And the cost is actually on a par because they're already paying a significant amount of money for that diesel-generated power.”

Lisa Kalynchuk, vice-president of research and innovation at UVic, said she was excited by the possibilities associated with tidal power, not only in B.C., but for all of Canada’s coasts.

“Canada has approximately 40,000 megawatts available on our three coastlines,” Kalynchuk said.

“Of course, not all this power can be realized, but it does exist, so that leads us to the hard part — tapping into this available energy and delivering it to those remote communities that need it.”

Challenges to establishing tidal power include the added cost and complexity of construction in remote communities, the storage of intermittent power for later use, the economic model, though B.C.’s streamlined regulatory process may ease approvals, the costs associated with tidal power installations, and financing for small communities, she said.

But smaller tidal energy projects can potentially set a track record for more nascent marine renewables, as groups like Marine Renewables Canada pivot to offshore wind development, at a lower cost and without facing the same social or regulatory resistance a large-scale project might face.

A successful tidal energy demo project was set up using a MAVI tidal turbine in Blind Channel to power a private resort on West Thurlow Island, part of the outer Discovery Islands chain wedged between Vancouver Island and the mainland, Whitby said.

The channel’s strong tidal currents, which routinely reach six knots and are close to the marina, proved a good site to test the small-scale turbine and associated micro-grid system that could be replicated to power remote communities, he said.

The mooring system, cable, and turbine were installed fairly rapidly and ran through the summer of 2017. The system is no longer active as provincial and federal funding for the project came to an end.

“But as a proof of concept, we think it was very successful,” Whitby said, adding micro-grid tidal power is still in the early stages of development.

Ideally, the project will be revived with new funding, so it can continue to act as a test site for marine renewable energy and to showcase the system to remote coastal communities that might want to consider tidal power, he said.

In addition to harnessing a local, renewable energy source and increasing energy independence, tidal energy micro-grids can fuel employment and new business opportunities, said Whitby.

The Blind Channel project was installed using the local supply chain out of nearby Campbell River, he said.

“Most of the vessels and support came from that area, so it was all really locally sourced.”

Funding from senior levels of government would likely need to be provided to set up a permanent tidal energy demonstration site, with recent tidal energy investments in Nova Scotia offering a model, or to help a community do case studies and finance a project, Whitby said.

Both the federal and provincial governments have established funding streams to transition remote communities away from relying on diesel.

But remote community projects funded federally or provincially to date have focused on more established renewables, such as hydro, solar, biomass, or wind.

The goal of B.C.’s Remote Community Energy Strategy, part of the CleanBC plan and aligned with zero-emissions electricity by 2035 targets across Canada, is to reduce diesel use for electricity 80 per cent by 2030 by targeting 22 of the largest diesel locations in the province, many of which fall along the coast.

The province has announced a number of significant investments to shift Indigenous coastal communities away from diesel-generated electricity, but they predominantly involve solar or hydro projects.

A situation that’s not likely to change, as the funding application guide in 2020 deemed tidal projects as ineligible for cash.

Yet, the potential for establishing tidal energy micro-grids in B.C. is good, Kalynchuk said, noting UVic is a hub for significant research expertise and several local companies, including ocean and river power innovators working in the region, are employing and developing related service technologies to install and maintain the systems.

“It also addresses our growing need to find alternative sources of energy in the face of the current climate crisis,” she said.

“The path forward is complex and layered, but one essential component in combating climate change is a move away from fossil fuels to other sources of energy that are renewable and environmentally friendly.”

 

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More pylons needed to ensure 'lights stay on' in Scotland, says renewables body

Scottish Renewable Grid Upgrades address outdated infrastructure, expanding transmission lines, pylons, and substations to move clean energy, meet rising electricity demand, and integrate onshore wind, offshore wind, and battery storage across Scotland.

 

Key Points

Planned transmission upgrades in Scotland to move clean power via new lines and substations for a low-carbon grid.

✅ Fivefold expansion of transmission lines by 2030

✅ Enables onshore and offshore wind integration

✅ New pylons, substations, and routes face local opposition

 

Renewable energy in Scotland is being held back by outdated grid infrastructure, industry leaders said, with projects stuck on hold underscoring their warning that new pylons and power lines are needed to "ensure our lights stay on".

Scottish Renewables said new infrastructure is required to transmit the electricity generated by green power sources and help develop "a clean energy future" informed by a broader green recovery agenda.

A new report from the organisation - which represents companies working across the renewables sector - makes the case for electricity infrastructure to be updated, aligning with global network priorities identified elsewhere.

But it comes as electricity firms looking to build new lines or pylons face protests, with groups such as the Strathpeffer and Contin Better Cable Route challenging power giant SSEN over the route chosen for a network of pylons that will run for about 100 miles from Spittal in Caithness to Beauly, near Inverness.

Scottish Renewables said it is "time to be upfront and honest" about the need for updated infrastructure.

It said previous work by the UK National Grid estimated "five times more transmission lines need to be built by 2030 than have been built in the past 30 years, at a cost of more than £50bn".

The Scottish Renewables report said: "Scotland is the UK's renewable energy powerhouse. Our winds, tides, rainfall and longer daylight hours already provide tens of thousands of jobs and billions of pounds of economic activity.

"But we're being held back from doing more by an electricity grid designed for fossil fuels almost a century ago, a challenge also seen in the Pacific Northwest today."

Investment in the UK transmission network has "remained flat, and even decreased since 2017", echoing stalled grid spending trends elsewhere, the report said.

It added: "We must build more power lines, pylons and substations to carry that cheap power to the people who need it - including to people in Scotland.

"Electricity demand is set to increase by 50% in the next decade and double by mid-century, so it's therefore wrong to say that Scottish households don't need more power lines, pylons and substations.

Renewable energy in Scotland is being held back by outdated grid infrastructure, industry leaders said, as they warned new pylons and power lines are needed to "ensure our lights stay on".

Scottish Renewables said new infrastructure is required to transmit the electricity generated by green power sources and help develop "a clean energy future".

A new report from the organisation - which represents companies working across the renewables sector - makes the case for electricity infrastructure to be updated.

But it comes as electricity firms looking to build new lines or pylons face protests, with groups such as the Strathpeffer and Contin Better Cable Route challenging power giant SSEN over the route chosen for a network of pylons that will run for about 100 miles from Spittal in Caithness to Beauly, near Inverness.

Scottish Renewables said it is "time to be upfront and honest" about the need for updated infrastructure.

It said previous work by the UK National Grid estimated "five times more transmission lines need to be built by 2030 than have been built in the past 30 years, at a cost of more than £50bn".

The Scottish Renewables report said: "Scotland is the UK's renewable energy powerhouse. Our winds, tides, rainfall and longer daylight hours already provide tens of thousands of jobs and billions of pounds of economic activity.

"But we're being held back from doing more by an electricity grid designed for fossil fuels almost a century ago."

Investment in the UK transmission network has "remained flat, and even decreased since 2017", the report said.

It added: "We must build more power lines, pylons and substations to carry that cheap power to the people who need it - including to people in Scotland.

"Electricity demand is set to increase by 50% in the next decade and double by mid-century, so it's therefore wrong to say that Scottish households don't need more power lines, pylons and substations.

"We need them to ensure our lights stay on, as excess solar can strain networks in the same way consumers elsewhere in the UK need them.

"With abundant natural resources, Scotland's home-grown renewables can be at the heart of delivering the clean energy needed to end our reliance on imported, expensive fossil fuel.

"To do this, we need a national electricity grid capable of transmitting more electricity where and when it is needed, echoing New Zealand's electricity debate as well."

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Nick Sharpe, director of communications and strategy at Scottish Renewables, said the current electricity network is "not fit for purpose".

He added: "Groups and individuals who object to the construction of power lines, pylons and substations largely do so because they do not like the way they look.

"By the end of this year, there will be just over 70 months left to achieve our targets of 11 gigawatts (GW) offshore and 12 GW onshore wind.

"To ensure we maximise the enormous socioeconomic benefits this will bring to local communities, we will need a grid fit for the 21st century."

 

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Crucial step towards completing nuclear plant achieved in Abu Dhabi

Barakah Unit 4 Cold Hydrostatic Testing validates reactor coolant system integrity at the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in Abu Dhabi, UAE, confirming safety, quality, and commissioning readiness under ENEC and KEPCO oversight.

 

Key Points

Pressure test of Unit 4's reactor coolant system, confirming integrity and safety for commissioning at Barakah.

✅ 25% above normal operating pressure verified.

✅ Welds, joints, and high-pressure components inspected.

✅ Supports safe, reliable, emissions-free baseload power.

 

The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) has successfully completed Cold Hydrostatic Testing (CHT) at Unit 4 of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, the Arab world’s first nuclear energy plant being built in the Al Dhafra region of Abu Dhabi, UAE. The testing incorporated the lessons learned from the previous three units and is a crucial step towards the completion of Unit 4, the final unit of the Barakah plant.

As a part of CHT, the pressure inside Unit 4’s systems was increased to 25 per cent above what will be the normal operating pressure, demonstrating, as seen across global nuclear projects, the quality and robust nature of the Unit’s construction. Prior to the commencement of CHT, Unit 4’s Nuclear Steam Supply Systems were flushed with demineralised water, and the Reactor Pressure Vessel Head and Reactor Coolant Pump Seals were installed. During the Cold Hydrostatic Testing, the welds, joints, pipes and components of the reactor coolant system and associated high-pressure systems were verified.

Mohammed Al Hammadi, Chief Executive Officer of ENEC said: “I am proud of the continued progress being made at Barakah despite the circumstances we have all faced in relation to COVID-19. The UAE leadership’s decisive and proactive response to the pandemic supported us in taking timely, safety-led actions to protect the health and safety of our workforce and our plant. These actions, alongside the efforts of our talented and dedicated workforce, have enabled the successful completion of CHT at Unit 4, which was completed in adherence to the highest standards of safety, quality, and security.

“With this accomplishment, we move another step closer to achieving our goal of supplying up to a quarter of our nation’s electricity needs through the national grid and powering its future growth with safe, reliable, and emissions-free electricity,” he added.

By the end of 2019, ENEC and Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), working with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) on the project, had successfully completed all major construction work including major concrete pouring, installation of the Turbine Generator, and the internal components of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) of Unit 4, which paved the way for the commencement of testing and commissioning.

The testing at Unit 4 represents a significant achievement in the development of the UAE Peaceful Nuclear Energy Program, following the successful completion of fuel assembly loading into Unit 1 in March 2020, confirming that the UAE has officially become a peaceful nuclear energy operating nation. Preparations are now in the final stages for the safe start-up of Unit 1, which subsequently reached 100% power ahead of commercial operations, in the coming months.

ENEC is currently in the final stages of construction of units 2, 3 and 4 of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, as China’s nuclear program continues its steady development globally. The overall construction of the four units is more than 94% complete. Unit 4 is more than 84 per cent, Unit 3 is more than 92 per cent and Unit 2 is more than 95 per cent. The four units at Barakah will generate up to 25 per cent of the UAE’s electricity demand by producing 5,600 MW of clean baseload electricity, as projects such as new reactors in Georgia take shape, and preventing the release of 21 million tons of carbon emissions each year – the equivalent of removing 3.2 million cars off the roads annually.

 

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As New Zealand gets serious about climate change, can electricity replace fossil fuels in time?

New Zealand Energy Transition will electrify transport and industry with renewables, grid-scale solar, wind farms, geothermal, batteries, demand response, pumped hydro, and transmission upgrades to manage dry-year risk and winter peak loads.

 

Key Points

A shift to renewables and smart demand to decarbonise transport and industry while ensuring reliable, affordable power.

✅ Electrifies transport and industrial heat with renewables

✅ Uses demand response, batteries, and pumped hydro for resilience

✅ Targets 99%+ renewable supply, managing dry-year and peak loads

 

As fossil fuels are phased out over the coming decades, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) suggests electricity will take up much of the slack, aligning with the vision of a sustainable electric planet powering our vehicle fleet and replacing coal and gas in industrial processes.

But can the electricity system really provide for this increased load where and when it is needed? The answer is “yes”, with some caveats.

Our research examines climate change impacts on the New Zealand energy system. It shows we’ll need to pay close attention to demand as well as supply. And we’ll have to factor in the impacts of climate change when we plan for growth in the energy sector.

 

Demand for electricity to grow
While electricity use has not increased in NZ in the past decade, many agencies project steeply rising demand in coming years. This is partly due to both increasing population and gross domestic product, but mostly due to the anticipated electrification of transport and industry, which could result in a doubling of demand by mid-century.

It’s hard to get a sense of the scale of the new generation required, but if wind was the sole technology employed to meet demand by 2050, between 10 and 60 new wind farms would be needed nationwide.

Of course, we won’t only build wind farms, as renewables are coming on strong and grid-scale solar, rooftop solar, new geothermal, some new small hydro plant and possibly tidal and wave power will all have a part to play.

 

Managing the demand
As well as providing more electricity supply, demand management and batteries will also be important. Our modelling shows peak demand (which usually occurs when everyone turns on their heaters and ovens at 6pm in winter) could be up to 40% higher by 2050 than it is now.

But meeting this daily period of high demand could see expensive plant sitting idle for much of the time (with the last 25% of generation capacity only used about 10% of the time).

This is particularly a problem in a renewable electricity system when the hydro lakes are dry, as hydro is one of the few renewable electricity sources that can be stored during the day (as water behind the dam) and used over the evening peak (by generating with that stored water).

Demand response will therefore be needed. For example, this might involve an industrial plant turning off when there is too much load on the electricity grid.

 

But by 2050, a significant number of households will also need smart appliances and meters that automatically use cheaper electricity at non-peak times. For example, washing machines and electric car chargers could run automatically at 2am, rather than 6pm when demand is high.

Our modelling shows a well set up demand response system could mitigate dry-year risk (when hydro lakes are low on water) in coming decades, where currently gas and coal generation is often used.

Instead of (or as well as) having demand response and battery systems to combat dry-year risk, a pumped storage system could be built. This is where water is pumped uphill when hydro lake inflows are plentiful, and used to generate electricity during dry periods.

The NZ Battery project is currently considering the potential for this in New Zealand, and debates such as whether we would use Site C's electricity offer relevant lessons.

 

Almost (but not quite) 100% renewable
Dry-year risk would be greatly reduced and there would be “greater greenhouse gas emissions savings” if the Interim Climate Change Committee’s (ICCC) 2019 recommendation to aim for 99% renewable electricity was adopted, rather than aiming for 100%.

A small amount of gas-peaking plant would therefore be retained. The ICCC said going from 99% to 100% renewable electricity by overbuilding would only avoid a very small amount of carbon emissions, at a very high cost.

Our modelling supports this view. The CCC’s draft advice on the issue also makes the point that, although 100% renewable electricity is the “desired end point”, timing is important to enable a smooth transition.

Despite these views, Energy Minister Megan Woods has said the government will be keeping the target of a 100% renewable electricity sector by 2030.

 

Impacts of climate change
In future, the electricity system will have to respond to changing climate patterns as well, becoming resilient to climate risks over time.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicts winds will increase in the South Island and decrease in the far north in coming decades.

Inflows to the biggest hydro lakes will get wetter (more rain in their headwaters), and their seasonality will change due to changes in the amount of snow in these catchments.

Our modelling shows the electricity system can adapt to those changing conditions. One good news story (unless you’re a skier) is that warmer temperatures will mean less snow storage at lower elevations, and therefore higher lake inflows in the big hydro catchments in winter, leading to a better match between times of high electricity demand and higher inflows.

 

The price is right
The modelling also shows the cost of generating electricity is not likely to increase, because the price of building new sources of renewable energy continues to fall globally.

Because the cost of building new renewables is now cheaper than non-renewables (such as coal-fired plants), investing in carbon-free electricity is increasingly compelling, and renewables are more likely to be built to meet new demand in the near term.

While New Zealand’s electricity system can enable the rapid decarbonisation of (at least) our transport and industrial heat sectors, international efforts like cleaning up Canada's electricity underline the need for certainty so the electricity industry can start building to meet demand everywhere.

Bipartisan cooperation at government level will be important to encourage significant investment in generation and transmission projects with long lead times and life expectancies, as analyses of climate policy and grid implications underscore in comparable markets.

Infrastructure and markets are needed to support demand response uptake, as well as certainty around the Tiwai exit in 2024 and whether pumped storage is likely to be built.

Our electricity system can support the rapid decarbonisation needed if New Zealand is to do its fair share globally to tackle climate change.

But sound planning, firm decisions and a supportive and relatively stable regulatory framework are all required before shovels can hit the ground.

 

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Can Canada actually produce enough clean electricity to power a net-zero grid by 2050?

Canada Clean Electricity drives a net-zero grid by 2035, scaling renewables like wind, solar, and hydro, with storage, smart grids, interprovincial transmission, and electrification of vehicles, buildings, and industry to cut emissions and costs.

 

Key Points

Canada Clean Electricity is a shift to a net-zero grid by 2035 using renewables, storage, and smart grids to decarbonize

✅ Doubles non-emitting generation for electrified transport and heating

✅ Expands wind, solar, hydro with storage and smart-grid balancing

✅ Builds interprovincial lines and faster permitting with Indigenous partners

 

By Merran Smith and Mark Zacharias

Canada is an electricity heavyweight. In addition to being the world’s sixth-largest electricity producer and third-largest electricity exporter in the global electricity market today, Canada can boast an electricity grid that is now 83 per cent emission-free, not to mention residential electricity rates that are the cheapest in the Group of Seven countries.

Indeed, on the face of it, the country’s clean electricity system appears poised for success. With an abundance of sunshine and blustery plains, Alberta and Saskatchewan, the Prairie provinces most often cited for wind and solar, have wind- and solar-power potential that rivals the best on the continent. Meanwhile, British Columbia, Manitoba, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador have long excelled at generating low-cost hydro power.

So it would only be natural to assume that Canada, with this solid head start and its generous geography, is already positioned to provide enough affordable clean electricity to power our much-touted net-zero and economic ambitions.

But the reality is that Canada, like most countries, is not yet prepared for a world increasingly committed to carbon neutrality, in part because demand for solar electricity has lagged, even as overall momentum grows.

The federal government’s forthcoming Clean Electricity Standard – a policy promised by the governing Liberals during the most recent election campaign and restated for an international audience by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the United Nations’ COP26 climate summit – would require all electricity in the country to be net zero by 2035 nationwide, setting a new benchmark. But while that’s an encouraging start, it is by no means the end goal. Electrification – that is, hooking up our vehicles, heating systems and industry to a clean electricity grid – will require Canada to produce roughly twice as much non-emitting electricity as it does today in just under three decades.

This massive ramp-up in clean electricity will require significant investment from governments and utilities, along with their co-operation on measures and projects such as interprovincial power lines to build an electric, connected and clean system that can deliver benefits nationwide. It will require energy storage solutions, smart grids to balance supply and demand, and energy-efficient buildings and appliances to cut energy waste.

While Canada has mostly relied on large-scale hydroelectric and nuclear power in the past, newer sources of electricity such as solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass with carbon capture and storage will, in many cases, be the superior option going forward, thanks to the rapidly falling costs of such technology and shorter construction times. And yet Canada added less solar and wind generation in the past five years than all but three G20 countries – Indonesia, Russia and Saudi Arabia, with some experts calling it a solar power laggard in recent years. That will need to change, quickly.

In addition, Canada’s Constitution places electricity policy under provincial jurisdiction, which has produced a patchwork of electricity systems across the country that use different energy sources, regulatory models, and approaches to trade and collaboration. While this model has worked to date, given our low consumer rates and high power reliability, collaborative action and a cohesive vision will be needed – not just for a 100-per-cent clean grid by 2035, but for a net-zero-enabling one by 2050.

Right now, it takes too long to move a clean power project from the proposal stage to operation – and far too long if we hope to attain a clean grid by 2035 and a net-zero-enabling one by 2050. This means that federal, provincial, territorial and Indigenous governments must work with rural communities and industry stakeholders to accelerate the approvals, financing and construction of clean energy projects and provide investor certainty.

In doing so, Canada can set a course to carbon neutrality while driving job creation and economic competitiveness, a transition many analyses deem practical and profitable in the long run. Our closest trading partners and many of the world’s largest companies and investors are demanding cleaner goods. A clean grid underpins clean production, just as it underpins our climate goals.

The International Energy Agency estimates that, for the world to reach net zero by 2050, clean electricity generation worldwide must increase by more than 2.5 times between today and 2050. Countries are already plotting their energy pathways, and there is much to learn from each other.

Consider South Australia. The state currently gets 62 per cent of its electricity from wind and solar and, combined with grid-scale battery storage, has not lost a single hour of electricity in the past five years. South Australia expects 100 per cent of its electricity to come from renewable sources before 2030. An added bonus given today’s high energy prices: Annual household electricity costs have declined there by 303 Australian dollars ($276) since 2018.

The transition to clean energy is not about sacrificing our way of life – it’s about improving it. But we’ll need the power to make it happen. That work needs to start now.

Merran Smith is the executive director of Clean Energy Canada, a program at the Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver. Mark Zacharias is a special adviser at Clean Energy Canada and visiting professor at the Simon Fraser University School of Public Policy.

 

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