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Germany net-zero roadmap charts coal phase-out by 2030, rapid renewables buildout, energy storage, and hydrogen-ready gas engines to cut emissions and lower LCOE by 34%, unlocking a resilient, flexible, low-cost power system by 2040.

Key Points

Plan to phase out coal by 2030 and gas by 2040, scaling renewables, storage, and hydrogen to cut LCOE and emissions.

✅ Coal out by 2030; gas phased 2040 with hydrogen-ready engines

✅ Add 19 GW/yr renewables; 30 GW storage by 2040

✅ 34% lower LCOE, 23% fewer emissions vs slower path

Germany can achieve significant reductions in emissions and the cost of electricity by phasing out coal in 2030 under its coal phase-out plan but must have a clear plan to ramp up renewables and pivot to sustainable fuels in order to achieve net-zero, according to a new whitepaper from Wartsila.

The modelling, published in Wärtsilä new white paper ‘Achieving net-zero power system in Germany by 2040’, compares the current plan to phase out coal by 2030 and gas by 2045 with an accelerated plan, where gas is phased out by 2040. By accelerating the path to net-zero, Germany can unlock a 34% reduction in the levelised cost of energy, as well as a 23% reduction in the total emissions, or 562 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in real terms.

The modelling offers a clear, three-step roadmap to achieve net-zero: rapidly increase renewables, energy storage and begin future-proofing gas engines in this decade; phase out coal by 2030; and phase out gas by 2040, converting remaining engines to run on sustainable fuels.

The greatest rewards are available if Germany front-loads decarbonisation. This can be done by rapidly increasing renewable capacity, adding 19 GW of wind and solar PV capacity per year. It must also add a total of 30GW of energy storage by 2040.

Håkan Agnevall, President and CEO of Wärtsilä Corporation said: “Germany stands on the precipice of a new, sustainable energy era. The new Federal Government has indicated its plans to consign coal to history by 2030. However, this is only step one. Our white paper demonstrates the need to implement a three-step roadmap to achieve net-zero. It is time to put a deadline on fossil fuels and create a clear plan to transition to sustainable fuels.”

While a rapid coal phase-out has been at the centre of recent climate policy debates, including the ongoing nuclear debate over Germany’s energy mix, the pathway to net-zero is less clear. Wärtsilä’s modelling shows that gas engines should be used to accelerate the transition by providing a short-term bridge to enable net zero and navigate the energy transition while balancing the intermittency of renewables until sustainable fuels are available at scale.

However, if Germany follows the slower pathway and reaches net-zero by 2045, it risks becoming reliant on gas as baseload power for much of the 2030s amid renewable expansion challenges that persist, potentially harming its ability to reach its climate goals. 

Creating the infrastructure to pivot to sustainable fuels is one of the greatest challenges facing the German system. The ability to convert existing capacity to run purely on hydrogen via hydrogen-ready power plants will be key to reaching net-zero by 2040 and unlocking the significant system-wide benefits on offer.

Jan Andersson, General Manager of Market Development in Germany, Wärtsilä Energy added: “To reach the 2040 target and unlock the greatest benefits, the most important thing that Germany can do is build renewables now. 19 GW is an ambitious target, but Germany can do it. History shows us that Germany has been able to achieve high levels of renewable buildout in previous years. It must now reach those levels consistently.

“Creating a clear plan which sets out the steps to net zero is essential. Renewable energy is inherently intermittent, so flexible energy capacity will play a vital role. While batteries provide effective short-term flexibility, gas is currently the only practical long-term option. If Germany is to unlock the greatest benefits from decarbonisation, it must have a clear plan to integrate sustainable fuel. From 2030, all new thermal capacity must run solely on hydrogen.”

Analysis of the last decade demonstrates that the rapid expansion of renewable energy is possible, and that renewables overtook coal and nuclear in generation. Previously, Germany has built large amounts of renewable capacity, including 8GW of solar PV in 2010 and 2011, 5.3 GW of onshore wind in 2017, and 2.5 GW of offshore wind in 2015.

The significant reductions in the cost of electricity demonstrated in the modelling are driven by the fact that renewables are far cheaper to run than coal or gas plants, even as coal still provides about a third of electricity in Germany. The initial capital investment is far outweighed by the ongoing operational expense of fossil fuel-based power.

As well as reducing emissions and costs, Germany’s rapid path to net-zero can also unlock a series of additional benefits. If coal is phased out by 2030 but capacity is not replaced by high levels of renewable energy, Germany risks becoming a significant energy importer, peaking at 162 TWh in 2035. The accelerated pathway would reduce imports by a third.

Likewise, more renewable energy will help to electrify district heating, meaning Germany can move away from carbon-intensive fuels sooner. If Germany follows the accelerated path, 57% of Germany’s heating could be electrified in 2045, compared to 10% under the slower plan.

Jan Andersson concluded: “The opportunities on offer are vast. Germany can provide the blueprint for net zero and galvanise an entire continent. Now is the time for the new government to seize the initiative.”

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US Offshore Wind Lease Sales signal soaring renewable energy growth, drawing oil and gas developers, requiring BOEM auctions, seismic surveying, transmission planning, with $70B investment, 8 GW milestones, and substantial job creation in coastal communities.

Key Points

BOEM-run auctions granting areas for offshore wind, spurring projects, investment, and jobs in federal waters.

✅ $70B investment needed by 2030 to meet current demand

✅ 8 GW early buildout could create 40,000 US jobs

✅ Requires BOEM auctions, seismic surveying, transmission corridors

Recent offshore lease sales demonstrate that not only has offshore wind arrived in the U.S., but it is clearly set to soar, as forecasts point to a $1 trillion global market in the coming decades. The level of participation today, especially from seasoned offshore oil and gas developers, exemplifies that the offshore industry is an advocate for the 'all of the above' energy portfolio.

Offshore wind could generate 160,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs, with 40,000 new U.S. jobs with the first 8 gigawatts of production, while broader forecasts see a quarter-million U.S. wind jobs within four years.

In fact, a recent report from the Special Initiative on Offshore Wind (SIOW), said that offshore wind investment in U.S. waters will require $70 billion by 2030 just based on current demand, and the UK's rapid scale-up offers a relevant benchmark.

Maintaining this tremendous level of interest from offshore wind developers requires a reliable inventory of regularly scheduled offshore wind sales and the ability to develop those resources. Coastal communities and extreme environmental groups opposing seismic surveying and the issuance of incidental harassment authorizations under the Marine Mammal Protection Act may literally take the wind out of these sales. Just as it is for offshore oil and gas development, seismic surveying is vital for offshore wind development, specifically in the siting of wind turbines and transmission corridors.

Unfortunately, a long-term pipeline of wind lease sales does not currently exist. In fact, with the exception of a sale proposed offshore New York offshore wind or potentially California in 2020, there aren't any future lease sales scheduled, leaving nothing upon which developers can plan future investments and prompting questions about when 1 GW will be on the grid nationwide.

NOIA is dedicated to working with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and coastal communities, consumers, energy producers and other stakeholders, drawing on U.K. wind lessons where applicable, in working through these challenges to make offshore wind a reality for millions of Americans.

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Methane Hydrate CO2 Sequestration uses carbon capture and nitrogen injection to swap gases in seafloor hydrates along the Gulf of Mexico, releasing methane for electricity while storing CO2, according to new simulation research.

Key Points

A method injecting CO2 and nitrogen into hydrates to store CO2 while releasing methane for power.

✅ Nitrogen aids CO2-methane swap in hydrate cages, speeding sequestration

✅ Gulf Coast proximity to emitters lowers transport and power costs

✅ Revenue from methane electricity could offset carbon capture

The world is quickly realizing it may need to actively pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to stave off the ill effects of climate change. Scientists and engineers have proposed various carbon capture techniques, but most would be extremely expensive—without generating any revenue. No one wants to foot the bill.

One method explored in the past decade might now be a step closer to becoming practical, as a result of a new computer simulation study. The process would involve pumping airborne CO2 down into methane hydrates—large deposits of icy water and methane right under the seafloor, beneath water 500 to 1,000 feet deep—where the gas would be permanently stored, or sequestered. The incoming CO2 would push out the methane, which would be piped to the surface and burned to generate electricity, whether sold locally or via exporters like Hydro-Que9bec to help defray costs, to power the sequestration operation or to bring in revenue to pay for it.

Many methane hydrate deposits exist along the Gulf of Mexico shore and other coastlines. Large power plants and industrial facilities that emit CO2 also line the Gulf Coast, where EPA power plant rules could shape deployment, so one option would be to capture the gas directly from nearby smokestacks, keeping it out of the atmosphere to begin with. And the plants and industries themselves could provide a ready market for the electricity generated.

A methane hydrate is a deposit of frozen, latticelike water molecules. The loose network has many empty, molecular-size pores, or “cages,” that can trap methane molecules rising through cracks in the rock below. The computer simulation shows that pushing out the methane with CO2 is greatly enhanced if a high concentration of nitrogen is also injected, and that the gas swap is a two-step process. (Nitrogen is readily available anywhere, because it makes up 78 percent of the earth’s atmosphere.) In one step the nitrogen enters the cages; this destabilizes the trapped methane, which escapes the cages. In a separate step, the nitrogen helps CO2 crystallize in the emptied cages. The disturbed system “tries to reach a new equilibrium; the balance goes to more CO2 and less methane,” says Kris Darnell, who led the study, published June 27 in the journal Water Resources Research. Darnell recently joined the petroleum engineering software company Novi Labs as a data scientist, after receiving his Ph.D. in geoscience from the University of Texas, where the study was done.

A group of labs, universities and companies had tested the technique in a limited feasibility trial in 2012 on Alaska’s North Slope, where methane hydrates form in sandstone under deep permafrost. They sent CO2 and nitrogen down a pipe into the hydrate. Some CO2 ended up being stored, and some methane was released up the same pipe. That is as far as the experiment was intended to go. “It’s good that Kris [Darnell] could make headway” from that experience, says Ray Boswell at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, who was one of the Alaska experiment leaders but was not involved in the new study. The new simulation also showed that the swap of CO2 for methane is likely to be much more extensive—and to happen quicker—if CO2 enters at one end of a hydrate deposit and methane is collected at a distant end.

The technique is somewhat similar in concept to one investigated in the early 2010s by Steven Bryant and others at the University of Texas. In addition to numerous methane hydrate deposits, the Gulf Coast has large pools of hot, salty brine in sedimentary rock under the coastline. In this system, pumps would send CO2 down into one end of a deposit, which would force brine into a pipe that is placed at the other end and leads back to the surface. There the hot brine would flow through a heat exchanger, where heat could be extracted and used for industrial processes or to generate electricity, supporting projects such as electrified LNG in some markets. The upwelling brine also contains some methane that could be siphoned off and burned. The CO2 dissolves into the underground brine, becomes dense and sinks further belowground, where it theoretically remains.

Either system faces big practical challenges, and building shared CO2 storage hubs to aggregate captured gas is still evolving. One is creating a concentrated flow of CO2; the gas makes up only .04 percent of air, and roughly 10 percent of the smokestack emission from a typical power plant or industrial facility. If an efficient methane hydrate or brine system requires an input that is 90 percent CO2, for example, concentrating the gas will require an enormous amount of energy—making the process very expensive. “But if you only need a 50 percent concentration, that could be more attractive,” says Bryant, who is now a professor of chemical and petroleum engineering at the University of Calgary. “You have to reduce the [CO2] capture cost.”

Another major challenge for the methane hydrate approach is how to collect the freed methane, which could simply seep out of the deposit through numerous cracks and in all directions. “What kind of well [and pipe] structure would you use to grab it?” Bryant asks.

Given these realities, there is little economic incentive today to use methane hydrates for sequestering CO2. But as concentrations rise in the atmosphere and the planet warms further, and as calls for an electric planet intensify, systems that could capture the gas and also provide energy or revenue to run the process might become more viable than techniques that simply pull CO2 from the air and lock it away, offering nothing in return.

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UK Offshore Wind Expansion will make wind the main power source, driving renewable energy, offshore projects, smart grids, battery storage, and interconnectors to cut carbon emissions, boost exports, and attract global investment.

Key Points

A UK strategy to scale offshore wind, integrate smart grids and storage, cut emissions and drive investment and exports

✅ 30% energy target by 2030, backed by CfD support

✅ 250m industry investment and smart grid build-out

✅ Battery storage and interconnectors balance intermittency

Plans are afoot to make wind the UKs main power source for the first time in history amid ambitious targets to generate 30 percent of its total energy supply by 2030, up from 8 percent at present.

A recently inked deal will see the offshore wind industry invest 250 million into technology and infrastructure over the next 11 years, with the government committing up to 557 million in support, under a renewable energy auction that boosts wind and tidal projects, as part of its bid to lower carbon emissions to 80 percent of 1990 levels by 2050.

Offshore wind investment is crucial for meeting decarbonisation targets while increasing energy production, says Dominic Szanto, Director, Energy and Infrastructure at JLL. The governments approach over the last seven years has been to promise support to the industry, provided that cost reduction targets were met. This certainty has led to the development of larger, more efficient wind turbines which means the cost of offshore wind energy is a third of what it was in 2012.

Boosting the wind industry

Offshore wind power has been gathering pace in the UK and has grown despite COVID-19 disruptions in recent years. Earlier this year, the Hornsea One wind farm, the worlds largest offshore generator which is located off the Yorkshire coast, started producing electricity. When fully operational in 2020, the project will supply energy to over a million homes, and a further two phases are planned over the coming decade.

Over 10 gigawatts of offshore wind either already has government support or is eligible to apply for it in the near future, following a 10 GW contract award that underscores momentum, representing over 30 billion of likely investment opportunities.

Capital is coming from European utility firms and increasingly from Asian strategic investors looking to learn from the UKs experience. The attractive government support mechanism means banks are keen to lend into the sector, says Szanto.

New investment in the UKs offshore wind sector will also help to counter the growing influence of China. The UK is currently the worlds largest offshore wind market, but by 2021 it will be outstripped by China.

Through its new deal, the government hopes to increase wind power exports fivefold to 2.6 billion per year by 2030, with the UKs manufacturing and engineering skills driving projects in growth markets in Europe and Asia and in developing countries supported by the World Bank support through financing and advisory programs.

Over the next two decades, theres a massive opportunity for the UK to maintain its industry leading position by designing, constructing, operating and financing offshore wind projects, says Szanto. Building on projects such as the Hywind project in Scotland, it could become a major export to countries like the USA and Japan, where U.S. lessons from the U.K. are informing policy and coastal waters are much deeper.

Wind-powered smart grids

As wind power becomes a major contributor to the UKs energy supply, which will be increasingly made up of renewable sources in coming decades, there are key infrastructure challenges to overcome.

A real challenge is that the UKs power generation is becoming far more decentralised, with smaller power stations such as onshore wind farms and solar parks and more prosumers residential houses with rooftop solar coupled with a significant rise in intermittent generation, says Szanto. The grid was never designed to manage energy use like that.

One potential part of the solution is to use offshore wind farms in other sites in European waters.

By developing connections between wind projects from neighbouring countries, it will create super-grids that will help mitigate intermittency issues, says Szanto.

More advanced energy storage batteries will also be key for when less energy is generated on still days. There is a growing need for batteries that can store large amounts of energy and smart technology to discharge that energy. Were going through a revolution where new technology companies are working to enable a much smarter grid.

Future smart grids, based on developing technology such as blockchain, might enable the direct trading of energy between generators and consumers, with algorithms that can manage many localised sources and, critically, ensure a smooth power supply.

Investors seeking a higher-yield market are increasingly turning to battery technology, Szanto says. In a future smart grid, for example, batteries could store electricity bought cheaply at low-usage times then sold at peak usage prices or be used to provide backup energy services to other companies.

Majors investing in the transition

Its not just new energy technology companies driving change; established oil and gas companies are accelerating spending on renewable energy. Shell has committed to $1-2 billion per year on clean energy technologies out of a $25-30 billion budget, while Equinor plans to spend 15-20 percent of its budget on renewables by 2030.

The oil and gas majors have the global footprint to deliver offshore wind projects in every country, says Szanto. This could also create co-investment opportunities for other investors in the sector especially as nascent wind markets such as the U.S., where the U.S. offshore wind timeline is still developing, and Japan evolve.

European energy giants, for example, have bid to build New Yorks first offshore wind project.

As offshore wind becomes a globalised sector, with a trillion-dollar market outlook emerging, the major fuel companies will have increasingly large roles. They have the resources to undertake the years-long, cost-intensive developments of wind projects, driven by a need for new business models as the world looks beyond carbon-based fuels, says Szanto.

Oil and gas heavyweights are also making wind, solar and energy storage acquisitions BP acquired solar developer Lightsource and car-charging network Chargemaster, while Shell spent $400 million on solar and battery companies.

The public perception is that renewable energy is niche, but its now a mainstream form of energy generation., concludes Szanto.

Every nation in the world is aligned in wanting a decarbonised future. In terms of electricity, that means renewable energy and for offshore wind energy, the outlook is extremely positive.

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Florida Solar for All Opt-Out highlights Gov. DeSantis rejecting EPA grant funds under the Inflation Reduction Act, limiting low-income households' access to solar panels, clean energy programs, and promised electricity savings across disadvantaged communities.

Key Points

Florida Solar for All Opt-Out is the state declining EPA grants, restricting low-income access to solar energy savings.

✅ EPA grant under IRA aimed at low-income solar

✅ Estimated 20% electricity bill savings missed

✅ Florida lacks PPAs and renewable standards

Florida has passed up on up to $400 million in federal money that would have helped low-income households install solar panels.

A $7 billion grant “competition” to promote clean energy in disadvantaged communities by providing low-income households with access to affordable solar energy was introduced by President Joe Biden earlier this year, and despite his climate law's mixed results in practice, none of that money will reach Florida households.

The Environmental Protection Agency announced the competition in June as part of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. However, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has decided to pass on the $400 million up for grabs by choosing to opt out of the opportunity.

Inflation Reduction Act:What is the Inflation Reduction Act? Everything to know about one of Biden's big laws

The program would have helped Florida households reduce their electricity costs by a minimum of 20% during a key time when Floridians are leaving in droves due to a rising cost of living associated with soaring insurance costs, inflation, and proposed FPL rate hikes statewide.

Florida was one of six other states that chose not to apply for the money.

President Joe Biden announced a $7 billion “competition” to promote clean energy in disadvantaged communities.

The opportunity, named “Solar for All,” was announced by the EPA in June and promised to provide up to $7 billion in grants to states, territories, tribal governments, municipalities, and nonprofits to expand the number of low-income and disadvantaged communities primed for residential solar investment — enabling millions of low-income households to access affordable, resilient and clean solar energy.

The grant is intended to help lower energy costs for families, create jobs and help reduce greenhouse effects that accelerate global climate change by providing financial support and incentives to communities that were previously locked out of investments.

How much money would Floridians save under the ‘Solar for All’ solar panel grant?

The program aims to reduce household electricity costs by at least 20%. Florida households paid an average of $154.51 per month for electricity in 2022, just over 14% of the national average of $135.25, and debates over hurricane rate surcharges continue to shape customer bills, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A 20% savings would drop those bills down to around $123 per month.

On the campaign trail, DeSantis has pledged to unravel Biden’s green energy agenda if elected president, amid escalating solar policy battles nationwide, slamming the Inflation Reduction Act and what he called “a concerted effort to ramp up the fear when it comes to things like global warming and climate change.”

His energy agenda includes ending Biden’s subsidies for electric cars while pushing policies that he says would ramp up domestic oil production.

“The subsidies are going to drive inflation higher,” DeSantis said at an event in September. “It’s not going to help with interest rates, and it is certainly not going to help with our unsustainable debt levels.”

DeSantis heading to third debate:As he enters third debate, Ron DeSantis has a big Nikki Haley problem

DeSantis’ plan to curb clean energy usage in Florida seems to be at odds with the state as a whole, and the region's evolving strategy for the South underscores why it has been ranked among the top three states to go solar since 2019, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).

SEIA also shows, however, that Florida lags behind many other states when it comes to solar policies, as utilities tilt the solar market in ways that influence policy outcomes statewide. Florida, for instance, has no renewable energy standards, which are used to increase the use of renewable energy sources for electricity by requiring or encouraging suppliers to provide customers with a stated minimum share of electricity from eligible renewable resources, according to the EIA.

Power purchase agreements, which can help lower the cost of going solar through third-party financing, are also not allowed in Florida, with court rulings on monopolies reinforcing the existing market structure. And there have been other policies implemented that drove other potential solar investments to other states.

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USDA Rural Energy Infrastructure Funding boosts renewable energy, BESS, and transmission upgrades, delivering grid modernization, resilience, and clean power to rural cooperatives through loans and grants aligned with climate goals, decarbonization, and energy independence.

Key Points

USDA Rural Energy Infrastructure Funding is a $4.37B program advancing renewables, BESS, and grid upgrades for rural power.

✅ Loans and grants for cooperatives modernizing rural grids.

✅ Prioritizes BESS to integrate wind and solar reliably.

✅ Upgrades transmission to cut losses and boost grid stability.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced a major investment of $4.37 billion aimed at upgrading rural electric cooperatives across the nation. This funding will focus on advancing renewable energy projects, enhancing battery energy storage systems (BESS), and upgrading transmission infrastructure to support a grid overhaul for renewables nationwide.

The USDA’s Rural Development initiative will provide loans and grants to cooperatives, supporting efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources that help rural America thrive, improve energy resilience, and modernize electrical grids in rural areas. These upgrades are expected to bolster the reliability and efficiency of energy systems, making rural communities more resilient to extreme weather events and fostering the expansion of renewable energy.

The funding will primarily support energy storage technologies, such as BESS, which allow excess energy from renewable sources like wind energy, solar, and hydropower technology to be stored and used during periods of high demand or when renewable generation is low. These systems are critical for integrating more renewable energy into the grid, ensuring a stable and sustainable power supply.

In addition to energy storage, the USDA’s investment will go toward enhancing the transmission networks that carry electricity across rural regions, aligning with a recent rule to boost renewable transmission across the U.S. By upgrading these systems, the USDA aims to reduce energy losses, improve grid stability, and ensure that rural communities have reliable access to power, particularly in remote and underserved areas.

This investment aligns with the Biden administration’s broader climate and clean energy goals, focusing on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fostering sustainable energy practices, including next-generation building upgrades that lower demand. The USDA's support will also promote energy independence in rural areas, enabling local cooperatives to meet the energy demands of their communities while decreasing reliance on fossil fuels.

The funding is expected to have a far-reaching impact, not only reducing carbon footprints but also creating jobs in the renewable energy and construction sectors. By modernizing energy infrastructure, rural electric cooperatives can expand access to clean, affordable energy while contributing to the nationwide shift toward a more sustainable energy future.

The USDA’s commitment to supporting rural electric cooperatives marks a significant step in the transition to a more resilient and sustainable energy grid, mirroring grid modernization projects in Canada seen in recent years. By investing in renewables and modernizing transmission and storage systems, the government aims to improve energy access and reliability in rural communities, ultimately driving the growth of a cleaner, more energy-efficient economy.

As part of the initiative, the USDA has also highlighted its commitment to helping rural cooperatives navigate the challenges of implementing new technologies and infrastructure. The agency has pledged to provide technical assistance, ensuring that cooperatives have the resources and expertise needed to successfully complete these projects.

In conclusion, the USDA’s $4.37 billion investment represents a significant effort to improve the energy landscape of rural America. By supporting the development of renewable energy, energy storage, and transmission upgrades, the USDA is not only fostering a cleaner energy future but also enhancing the resilience of rural communities. This initiative will contribute to the nationwide transition toward a sustainable, low-carbon economy, ensuring that rural areas are not left behind in the global push for renewable energy.

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