Study eases fear of wind farm threat to birds

Oil and Gas Profitability Decline reflects shale-driven oversupply, OPEC-Russia dynamics, LNG exports, renewables growth, and weak demand, signaling compressed margins for producers, stressed petrodollar budgets, and shifting energy markets post-Covid.

Key Points

A sustained squeeze on hydrocarbon margins from agile shale supply, weaker OPEC leverage, and expanding renewables.

✅ Shale responsiveness caps prices and erodes industry rents

✅ OPEC-Russia cuts face limited impact versus US supply

✅ Renewables and EVs slow long-term oil and gas demand

The oil-price crash of March 2020 will probably not last long. As in 2014, when the oil price dropped below $50 from $110 in a few weeks, this one will trigger a temporary collapse of the US shale industry. Unless the coronavirus outbreak causes Armageddon, cheap oil will also support policymakers’ efforts to help the global economy.

But there will be at least one important and lasting difference this time round — and it has major market and geopolitical implications.

The oil price crash is a foretaste of where the whole energy sector was going anyway — and that is down.

It may not look that way at first. Saudi Arabia will soon realise, as it did in 2015, that its lethal decision to pump more oil is not only killing US shale but its public finances as well. Riyadh will soon knock on Moscow’s door again. Once American shale supplies collapse, Russia will resume co-operation with Saudi Arabia.

With the world economy recovering from the Covid-19 crisis by then, and with electricity demand during COVID-19 shifting, moderate supply cuts by both countries will accelerate oil market recovery. In time, US shale producers will return too.

Yet this inevitable bounceback should not distract from two fundamental factors that were already remaking oil and gas markets. First, the shale revolution has fundamentally eroded industry profitability. Second, the renewables’ revolution will continue to depress growth in demand.

The combined result has put the profitability of the entire global hydrocarbon industry under pressure. That means fewer petrodollars to support oil-producing countries’ national budgets, including Canada's oil sector exposures. It also means less profitable oil companies, which traditionally make up a large segment of stock markets, an important component of so many western pension funds.

Start with the first factor to see why this is so. Historically, the geological advantages that made oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia so cheap to produce were unique. Because oil and gas were produced at costs far below the market price, the excess profits, or “rent”, enjoyed by the industry were very large.

Furthermore, collusion among low-cost producers has been a winning strategy. The loss of market share through output cuts was more than compensated by immediately higher prices. It was the raison d’être of Opec.

The US shale revolution changed all this, exposing the limits of U.S. energy dominance narratives. A large oil-producing region emerged with a remarkable ability to respond quickly to price changes and shrink its costs over time. Cutting back cheap Opec oil now only increases US supplies, with little effect on world prices.

That is why Russia refused to cut production this month. Even if its cuts did boost world prices — doubtful given the coronavirus outbreak’s huge shock to demand — that would slow the shrinkage of US shale that Moscow wants.

Shale has affected the natural gas industry even more. Exports of US liquefied natural gas now put an effective ceiling on global prices, and debates over a clean electricity push have intensified when gas prices spike.

On top of all this, there is also the renewables’ revolution, though a green revolution has not been guaranteed in the near term. Around the world, wind and solar have become ever-cheaper options to generate electricity. Storage costs have also dropped and network management improved. Even in the US, renewables are displacing coal and gas. Electrification of vehicle fleets will damp demand further, as U.S. electricity, gas, and EVs face evolving pressures.

Eliminating fossil fuel consumption completely would require sustained and costly government intervention, and reliability challenges such as coal and nuclear disruptions add to the complexity. That is far from certain. Meanwhile, though, market forces are depressing the sector’s usual profitability.

The end of oil and gas is not immediately around the corner. Still, the end of hydrocarbons as a lucrative industry is a distinct possibility. We are seeing that in dramatic form in the current oil price crash. But this collapse is merely a message from the future.

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Pickering nuclear refurbishment will modernize Ontario's Candu reactors at Pickering B, sustaining 2,000 MW of clean electricity, aiding net-zero goals, and aligning with Ontario Power Generation plans and Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission reviews.

Key Points

An 11-year overhaul of Pickering B Candu reactors to extend life, keep 2,000 MW online, and back Ontario net-zero grid.

✅ 11-year project; 11,000 annual jobs; $19.4B GDP impact.

✅ Refurbishes four Pickering B Candu units; maintains 2,000 MW.

✅ Requires Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission license approvals.

The Ontario government has announced its intention to pursue a Pickering refurbishment at the venerable nuclear power station, which has been operational for over fifty years. This move could extend the facility's life by another 30 years.

This decision is timely, as Ontario anticipates a significant surge in electricity demand and a growing electricity supply gap in the forthcoming years. Additionally, all provinces are grappling with new federal mandates for clean electricity, necessitating future power plants to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

Todd Smith, the Energy Minister, is expected to endorse Ontario Power Generation's proposal for the plant's overhaul, as per a preliminary version of a government press release.

The renovation will focus on four Candu reactors, known collectively as Pickering B, which were originally commissioned in the early 1980s. This upgrade is projected to continue delivering 2,000 megawatts of power, equivalent to the current output of these units.

According to the press release, the project will span 11 years, create approximately 11,000 annual jobs, and contribute $19.4 billion to Ontario's GDP. However, the total budget for the project remains unspecified.

The project follows the ongoing refurbishment of four units at the nearby Darlington nuclear station, which is more than halfway completed with a budget of $12.8 billion.

The proposal awaits the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's approval, and officials face extension request timing considerations before key deadlines.

The Commission is also reviewing a prior request from OPG to extend the operational license of the existing Pickering B units until 2026. This extension would allow the plant to safely continue operating until the commencement of its renovation, pending approval.

Ontario's Ambitious Nuclear Strategy

The announcement regarding Pickering is part of Ontario's broader clean energy plan for an unprecedented expansion of nuclear power in Canada.

Last summer, the province announced its intention to nearly double the output at Bruce Power, currently the world's largest nuclear generating station.

Additionally, Ontario revealed SMR plans to construct three more alongside the existing project at Darlington. These reactors are expected to supply enough electricity to power around 1.2 million homes.

Discussions about revitalizing the Pickering facility began in 2022, after the station had been slated to close as planned amid debate, with Ontario Power Generation submitting a feasibility report to the government last summer.

The Ford government emphasized the necessity of this nuclear expansion to meet the increasing electricity demands anticipated from the auto sector's shift to electric vehicles, the steel industry's move away from coal-fired furnaces, and the growing population in Ontario.

Ontario's capability to attract major international car manufacturers like Volkswagen and Stellantis to produce electric vehicles and batteries is partly attributed to the fact that 90% of the province's electricity comes from non-fossil fuel sources.

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Middle Tennessee Power Outages disrupt 100,000+ customers as severe thunderstorms, straight-line winds, downed trees, and debris challenge Nashville crews, slow restoration amid COVID-19, and threaten more hail, flash flooding, and damaging gusts.

Key Points

Blackouts across Nashville after severe storms and winds, leaving customers without power and facing restoration delays.

✅ Straight-line winds 60-80 mph toppled trees and power lines

✅ 130,000+ customers impacted; some outages may last 1-2 weeks

✅ Restoration slowed by debris, COVID-19 protocols, and new storms

Some middle Tennessee residents could be without electricity for up to two weeks after strong thunderstorms swept through the area Sunday, knocking out power for more than 100,000 customers, a scale comparable to Los Angeles outages after a station fire.

"Straight line winds as high as 60-80 miles per hour knocked down trees, power lines and power polls, interrupting power to 130,000 of our 400,000+ customers," Nashville Electric said in a statement Monday. The utility said the outage was one of the largest on record, though Carolina power outages recently left a quarter-million without power as well.

"Restoration times will depend on individual circumstances. In some cases, power could be out for a week or two" as challenges related to coronavirus and the need for utilities adapt to climate change complicated crews' responses and more storms were expected, the statement said. "This is unfortunate timing on the heels of a tornado and as we deal with battling COVID-19."

Metropolitan Nashville and Davidson County Mayor John Cooper also noted that the power outages were especially inconvenient, a challenge similar to Hong Kong families without power during Typhoon Mangkhut, as people were largely staying home to slow the spread of coronavirus. He also pointed out that the storms came on the two month anniversary of the Nashville tornado that left at least two dozen people dead.

"Crews are working diligently to restore power and clear any debris in neighborhoods," Cooper said.

He said that no fatalities were reported in the county but sent condolences to Spring Hill, whose police department reported that firefighter Mitchell Earwood died during the storm due to "a tragic weather-related incident" while at his home and off duty. He had served with the fire department for 10 years.

The Metro Nashville Department of Public Works said it received reports of more than 80 downed trees in Davidson County.

Officials also warn that copper theft can be deadly when electrical infrastructure is damaged after storms.

The National Weather Service Nashville said a 72 mph wind gust was measured at Nashville International Airport — the fifth fastest on record.

The weather service warned that strong storms with winds of up to 75 mph, large hail, record-long lightning bolt potential seen in the U.S., and isolated flash flooding could hit middle Tennessee again Monday afternoon and night.

"Treat Severe Thunderstorm Warnings the same way you would Tornado Warnings and review storm safety tips before you JUST TAKE SHELTER," the NWS instructs. "70 mph is 70 mph whether it's spinning around in a circle or blowing in a straight line."

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Near-Field Thermophotovoltaics captures radiated energy across a nanoscale gap, using thin-film photovoltaic cells and indium gallium arsenide to boost power density and efficiency, enabling compact Army portable power from emitters via radiative heat transfer.

Key Points

A nanoscale TPV method capturing near-field photons for higher power density at lower emitter temperatures.

✅ Nanoscale gap boosts radiative transfer and usable photon flux

✅ Thin-film InGaAs cells recycle sub-band-gap photons via reflector

✅ Achieved ~5 kW/m2 power density with higher efficiency

With the addition of sensors and enhanced communication tools, providing lightweight, portable power has become even more challenging, with concepts such as power from falling snow illustrating how diverse new energy-harvesting approaches are. Army-funded research demonstrated a new approach to turning thermal energy into electricity that could provide compact and efficient power for Soldiers on future battlefields.

Hot objects radiate light in the form of photons into their surroundings. The emitted photons can be captured by a photovoltaic cell and converted to useful electric energy. This approach to energy conversion is called far-field thermophotovoltaics, or FF-TPVs, and has been under development for many years; however, it suffers from low power density and therefore requires high operating temperatures of the emitter.

The research, conducted at the University of Michigan and published in Nature Communications, demonstrates a new approach, where the separation between the emitter and the photovoltaic cell is reduced to the nanoscale, enabling much greater power output than what is possible with FF-TPVs for the same emitter temperature.

This approach, which enables capture of energy that is otherwise trapped in the near-field of the emitter is called near-field thermophotovoltaics or NF-TPV and uses custom-built photovoltaic cells and emitter designs ideal for near-field operating conditions, alongside emerging smart solar inverters that help manage conversion and delivery.

This technique exhibited a power density almost an order of magnitude higher than that for the best-reported near-field-TPV systems, while also operating at six-times higher efficiency, paving the way for future near-field-TPV applications, including remote microgrid deployments in extreme environments, according to Dr. Edgar Meyhofer, professor of mechanical engineering, University of Michigan.

"The Army uses large amounts of power during deployments and battlefield operations and must be carried by the Soldier or a weight constrained system," said Dr. Mike Waits, U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command's Army Research Laboratory. "If successful, in the future near-field-TPVs could serve as more compact and higher efficiency power sources for Soldiers as these devices can function at lower operating temperatures than conventional TPVs."

The efficiency of a TPV device is characterized by how much of the total energy transfer between the emitter and the photovoltaic cell is used to excite the electron-hole pairs in the photovoltaic cell, where insights from near-light-speed conduction research help contextualize performance limits in semiconductors. While increasing the temperature of the emitter increases the number of photons above the band-gap of the cell, the number of sub band-gap photons that can heat up the photovoltaic cell need to be minimized.

"This was achieved by fabricating thin-film TPV cells with ultra-flat surfaces, and with a metal back reflector," said Dr. Stephen Forrest, professor of electrical and computer engineering, University of Michigan. "The photons above the band-gap of the cell are efficiently absorbed in the micron-thick semiconductor, while those below the band-gap are reflected back to the silicon emitter and recycled."

The team grew thin-film indium gallium arsenide photovoltaic cells on thick semiconductor substrates, and then peeled off the very thin semiconductor active region of the cell and transferred it to a silicon substrate, informing potential interfaces with home battery systems for distributed use.

All these innovations in device design and experimental approach resulted in a novel near-field TPV system that could complement distributed resources in virtual power plants for resilient operations.

"The team has achieved a record ~5 kW/m2 power output, which is an order of magnitude larger than systems previously reported in the literature," said Dr. Pramod Reddy, professor of mechanical engineering, University of Michigan.

Researchers also performed state-of-the-art theoretical calculations to estimate the performance of the photovoltaic cell at each temperature and gap size, informing hybrid designs with backup fuel cell solutions that extend battery life, and showed good agreement between the experiments and computational predictions.

"This current demonstration meets theoretical predictions of radiative heat transfer at the nanoscale, and directly shows the potential for developing future near-field TPV devices for Army applications in power and energy, communication and sensors," said Dr. Pani Varanasi, program manager, DEVCOM ARL that funded this work.

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European Green Deal Electrification accelerates decarbonization via renewables, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and clean industry, backed by sustainable finance, EIB green lending, just transition funds, and energy taxation reform to phase out fossil fuels.

Key Points

An EU plan to replace fossil fuels with renewable electricity in transport, buildings, and industry, supported by green finance.

✅ Doubles electricity's share to cut CO2 and phase out fossil fuels.

✅ Drives EVs, heat pumps, and electrified industry via renewables.

✅ Funded by EIB lending, EU budget, and just transition support.

The European Union is preparing an ambitious plan to completely decarbonize by 2050. Increasing the share of electricity in Europe’s energy system – electricity that will increasingly come from renewable sources - will be at the center of this strategy, aligning with the broader global energy transition under way, the new head of the European Commission’s energy department said yesterday.

This will mean more electric cars, electric heating and electric industry. The idea is that fossil fuels should no longer be a primary energy source, heating homes, warming food or powering cars. In the medium term they should only be used to generate electricity, a shift mirrored by New Zealand's electricity shift efforts, which then powers these things, resulting in less CO2 emissions.

“First assessments show we need to double the share of electricity in energy consumption by 2050,” Ditte Juul-Jørgensen said at an event in Brussels this week, a goal echoed by recent calls to double investment in power systems from world leaders. “We’ve already seen an increase in the last decade, but we need to go further”.

Juul-Jørgensen, who started in her job as director-general of the commission’s energy department in August, has come to the role at a pivotal time for energy. The 2050 decarbonization proposal from the Commission, the EU’s executive branch, is expected to be approved next month by EU national leaders. A veto from Poland that has blocked adoption until now is likely to be overcome if Poland and other Eastern European countries are offered financial assistance from a “just transition fund”, according to EU sources.

Ursula von der Leyen, the incoming President of the Commission, has promised to unveil a “European Green Deal” in her first 100 days in office designed to get the EU to its 2050 goal. Juul-Jørgensen will be working with the incoming EU Energy Commissioner, Kadri Simson, on designing this complex strategy. The overall aim will be to phase out fossil fuels, and increase the use of electricity from green sources, amid trends like oil majors pivoting to electric across Europe today.

“This will be about how do we best make use of electricity to feed into other sectors,” Juul-Jørgensen said. “We need to think about transforming it into other sources, and how to best transport it.”

“But the biggest challenge from what I see today is that of investment and finance - the changes we have to make are very significant.”

Financing problems

The Commission is going to try to tackle the challenges of financing the energy transition with two tools: dedicated climate funding in the EU budget, and dedicated climate lending from the European Investment Bank.

“The EIB will play an increasing role in future. We hope to see agreement [with the EIB board] on that in the coming months so there’s a clear operator in the EIB to support the green transition. We’re looking at something around €400 billion a year.”

The Commission’s proposed dedicated climate spending in the next seven-year budget must still be approved by the 28 EU national governments. Juul-Jørgensen said there is unanimous agreement on the amount: 25% of the budget. But there is disagreement about how to determine what is green spending.

“A lot of work has been ongoing to ensure that when it comes to counting it reflects the reality of the investments,” she said. “We’re working on the taxonomy on sustainable finance - internally identifying sectors contributing to overall climate objectives.”

Electricity pact

Juul-Jørgensen was speaking at an event organized by the the Electrification Alliance, a pact between nine industry organizations to lobby for electricity to be put at the heart of the European green deal. They signed a declaration at the event calling for a variety of measures to be included in the green deal, reflecting debates over a fully renewable grid by 2030 in other jurisdictions, including a change to the EU’s energy taxation regime which incentivizes a switch from fossil fuel to electricity consumption.

“Electrification is the most important solution to turn the vision of a fossil-free Europe into reality,” said Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation, one of the signatories, and co-architect of the Paris Agreement.

“We are determined to deliver, but we must be mindful of the different starting points and secure sufficient financing to ensure a fair transition”, said Magnus Hall, President of electricity industry association Eurelectric, another signatory.

The energy taxation issue has been particularly tricky for the EU, since any change in taxation rules requires the unanimous consent of all 28 EU countries. But experts say that current taxation structures are subsidizing fossil fuels and punishing electricity, as recent UK net zero policy changes illustrate, and unless this is changed the European Green Deal can have little effect.

“Yes this issue will be addressed in the incoming commission once it takes up its function,” Juul-Jørgensen said in response to an audience question. “We all know the challenge - the unanimity requirement in the Council - and so I hope that member states will agree to the direction of work and the need to address energy taxation systems to make sure they’re consistent with the targets we’ve set ourselves.”

But some are concerned that the transformation envisioned by the green deal will have negative impacts on some of the most vulnerable members of society, including those who work in the fossil fuel sector.

This week the Centre on Regulation in Europe sent an open letter to Frans Timmermans, the Commission Vice President in charge of climate, warning that they need to be mindful of distributional effects. These worries have been heightened by the yellow vest protests in France, which were sparked by French President Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to increase fuel taxes for non-electric cars.

“The effectiveness of climate action and sustainability policies will be challenged by increasing social and political pressures,” wrote Máximo Miccinilli, the center’s director for energy. “If not properly addressed, those will enhance further populist movements that undermine trust in governance and in the public institutions.”

Miccinilli suggests that more research be done into identifying, quantifying and addressing distributional effects before new policies are put in place to phase out fossil fuels. He proposes launching a new European Observatory for Distributional Effects of the Energy Transition to deal with this.

EU national leaders are expected to vote on the 2050 decarbonization target, building on member-state plans such as Spain's 100% renewable electricity goal by mid-century, at a summit in Brussels on December 12, and Von der Leyen will likely unveil her European Green Deal in March.

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Calistoga Resiliency Centre Microgrid delivers grid resilience via green hydrogen and BESS, providing island-mode backup during PSPS events, wildfire risk, and outages, with black-start and grid-forming capabilities for reliable community power.

Key Points

A hybrid green hydrogen and BESS facility ensuring resilient, islanded power for Calistoga during PSPS and outages.

✅ 293 MWh capacity with 8.5 MW peak for critical backup

✅ Hybrid lithium-ion BESS plus green hydrogen fuel cells

✅ Island mode with black-start and grid-forming support

Energy Vault, a prominent energy storage and technology company known for its gravity storage, recently secured US$28 million in project financing for its innovative Calistoga Resiliency Centre (CRC) in California. This funding will enable the development of a microgrid powered by a unique combination of green hydrogen and battery energy storage systems (BESS), marking a significant step forward in enhancing grid resilience in the face of natural disasters such as wildfires.

Located in California's fire-prone regions, the CRC is designed to provide critical backup power during Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events—periods when utility companies proactively cut power to prevent wildfires. These events can leave communities without electricity for extended periods, making the need for reliable, independent power sources more urgent as many utilities see benefits in energy storage today. The CRC, with a capacity of 293 MWh and a peak output of 8.5 MW, will ensure that the Calistoga community maintains power even when the grid is disconnected.

The CRC features an integrated hybrid system that combines lithium-ion batteries and green hydrogen fuel cells, even as some grid-scale projects adopt vanadium flow batteries for long-duration needs. During a PSPS event or other grid outages, the system will operate in "island mode," using hydrogen to generate electricity. This setup not only guarantees power supply but also contributes to grid stability by supporting black-start and grid-forming functions. Energy Vault's proprietary B-VAULT DC battery technology complements the hydrogen fuel cells, enhancing the overall performance and resilience of the microgrid.

One of the key aspects of the CRC project is the utilization of green hydrogen. Unlike traditional hydrogen, which is often produced using fossil fuels, green hydrogen is generated through renewable energy sources like solar or wind power, with large-scale initiatives such as British Columbia hydrogen project accelerating supply, making it a cleaner and more sustainable alternative. This aligns with California’s ambitious clean energy goals and is expected to reduce the carbon footprint of the region’s energy infrastructure.

The CRC project also sets a precedent for future hybrid microgrid deployments across California and other wildfire-prone areas, with utilities like SDG&E Emerald Storage highlighting growing adoption. Energy Vault has positioned the CRC as a model for scalable, utility-scale microgrids that can be adapted to various locations facing similar challenges. Following the success of this project, Energy Vault is expanding its portfolio with additional projects in Texas, where it anticipates securing up to US$25 million in financing.

The funding for the CRC also includes the sale of an investment tax credit (ITC), a key component of the financing structure that helps make such ambitious projects financially viable. This structure is crucial as it allows companies to leverage government incentives to offset development costs, including CEC long-duration storage funding, thus encouraging further investment in green energy infrastructure.

Despite some skepticism regarding the transportation of hydrogen rather than producing it onsite, the project has garnered strong support. California’s Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) acknowledged the potential risks of transporting green hydrogen but emphasized that it is still preferable to using more harmful fuel sources. This recognition is important as it validates Energy Vault’s approach to using hydrogen as part of a broader strategy to transition to clean, reliable energy solutions.

Energy Vault's shift from its traditional gravity-based energy storage systems to battery energy storage systems, such as BESS in New York, reflects the company's adaptation to the growing demand for versatile, efficient energy solutions. The hybrid approach of combining BESS with green hydrogen represents an innovative way to address the challenges of energy storage, especially in regions vulnerable to natural disasters and power outages.

As the CRC nears mechanical completion and aims for full commercial operations by Q2 2025, it is poised to become a critical part of California’s grid resilience strategy. The microgrid's ability to function autonomously during emergencies will provide invaluable benefits not only to Calistoga but also to other communities that may face similar grid disruptions in the future.

Energy Vault’s US$28 million financing for the Calistoga Resiliency Centre marks a significant milestone in the development of hybrid microgrids that combine the power of green hydrogen and battery energy storage. This project exemplifies the future of energy resilience, showcasing a forward-thinking approach to mitigating the impact of natural disasters and ensuring a reliable, sustainable energy future for communities at risk. With its innovative use of renewable energy sources and cutting-edge technology, the CRC sets a strong example for future energy storage projects worldwide.

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