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Solar Cell Manufacturing Capacity is forecast to hit 17 GW in 2009 and exceed 42 GW by 2013 amid PV oversupply, price erosion, and demand recovery, led by First Solar, Q-Cells, Suntech, and top manufacturers.
What This Means
Projected PV output scale reaching 17 GW in 2009 and surpassing 42 GW by 2013 despite a 2009 demand slump.
- Capacity grows ~49% annually through 2013
- 17 GW installed capacity in 2009
- Over-supply drives PV price erosion
- Demand shrank 17% in 2009, rebounds 2010-2011
- First Solar leads; Q-Cells, Suntech close behind
Solar cell manufacturing capacity will grow 56 percent in 2009 despite weakened demand for renewable energy projects in the face of tight credit markets and a global economic recession, a report issued by research group DisplaySearch said.
The report predicts that cell manufacturing capacity will reach 17 gigawatts this year and, driven in part by thin-film cells adoption, will surpass 42 GW by 2013, growing at a rate of 49 percent per year.
Despite demand for photovoltaic panels shrinking 17 percent this year and an "enormous over-supply" eroding prices, the solar industry will "begin working through this excess capacity as demand recovers next year and takes off in 2011 and beyond," said Charles Annis, vice president of manufacturing research for DisplaySearch and author of the report.
Expansion projects that were previously committed are driving the growth in capacity despite falling demand and a brighter solar future is expected, the report said. From January 2008 to July 2009, about 11.4 GW of new solar cell capacity was installed worldwide.
The report named U.S.-based company First Solar Inc as the largest solar cell manufacturer with more than 1 GW of capacity, as the U.S. solar market still lags Europe.
Germany's Q-Cells AG and China's Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd come in second.
By 2013, these companies and China's JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd, Taiwan's Motech Industries Inc, Norway's Renewable Energy Corp, U.S.-based SunPower Corp, China's Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd, and Japan's Showa Shell Sekiyu KK and Sharp Corp may be among the top 10 makers as China's output rises, with more than 16 GW, or 38 percent, of total capacity in 2013, the report said.
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