South Carolina nuke plant back at full power

Electricity Security and Firm Capacity underpin reliable supply, balancing variable renewables with grid flexibility via gas plants, nuclear power, hydropower, battery storage, and demand response, safeguarding telework, e-commerce, and critical healthcare operations.

Key Points

Ability to meet demand by combining firm generation and flexible resources, keeping grids stable as renewables grow.

✅ Balances variable renewables with dispatchable generation

✅ Rewards flexibility via capacity markets and ancillary services

✅ Enhances grid stability for critical loads during low demand

The huge disruption caused by the coronavirus crisis, and the low-carbon electricity lessons drawn from it, has highlighted how much modern societies rely on electricity and how firm capacity, such as that provided by nuclear power, is a crucial element in ensuring supply, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

In a commentary posted on LinkedIn, Birol said: "The coronavirus crisis reminds us of electricity's indispensable role in our lives. It's also providing insights into how that role is set to expand and evolve in the years and decades ahead."

Reliable electricity supply is crucial for teleworking, e-commerce, operating ventilators and other medical equipment, among all its other uses, he said, adding that the hundreds of millions of people who live without any access to electricity are far more vulnerable to disease and other dangers.

"Although new forms of short-term flexibility such as battery storage are on the rise, and initiatives like UK home virtual power plants are emerging, most electricity systems rely on natural gas power plants - which can quickly ramp generation up or down at short notice - to provide flexibility, underlining the critical role of gas in clean energy transitions," Birol said.

"Today, most gas power plants lose money if they are used only from time to time to help the system adjust to shifts in demand. The lower levels of electricity demand during the current crisis are adding to these pressures. Hydropower, an often forgotten workhorse of electricity generation, remains an essential source of flexibility.

"Firm capacity, including nuclear power in countries that have chosen to retain it as an option, is a crucial element in ensuring a secure electricity supply even as soaring electricity and coal use complicate transitions. Policy makers need to design markets that reward different sources for their contributions to electricity security, which can enable them to establish viable business models."

In most economies that have taken strong confinement measures in response to the coronavirus - and for which the IEA has available data - electricity demand has declined by around 15%, largely as a result of factories and businesses halting operations, and in New York City load patterns were notably reshaped during lockdowns. If electricity demand falls quickly while weather conditions remain the same, the share of variable renewables like wind and solar can become higher than normal, and low-emissions sources are set to cover almost all near-term growth.

"With weaker electricity demand, power generation capacity is abundant. However, electricity system operators have to constantly balance demand and supply in real time. People typically think of power outages as happening when surging electricity demand overwhelms supply. But in fact, some of the most high-profile blackouts in recent times took place during periods of low demand," Birol said.

"When electricity from wind and solar is satisfying the majority of demand, and renewables poised to eclipse coal by 2025 are reshaping the mix, systems need to maintain flexibility in order to be able to ramp up other sources of generation quickly when the pattern of supply shifts, such as when the sun sets. A very high share of wind and solar in a given moment also makes the maintenance of grid stability more challenging."

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Global Decarbonization Strategies align renewable energy, electrification, clean air policies, IMO sulfur cap, LNG fuels, and the EU 2050 roadmap to cut carbon intensity and meet Paris Agreement targets via EVs and efficiency.

Key Points

Frameworks that cut emissions via renewables, EVs, efficiency, cleaner marine fuels, and EU policy roadmaps.

✅ Renewables scale as wind and solar outcompete new coal and gas.

✅ Electrification of transport grows as EV costs fall and charging expands.

✅ IMO 2020 sulfur cap and LNG shift cut shipping emissions and particulates.

Are we doing enough to save the planet? Silly question. The latest prognosis from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made for gloomy reading. Fundamental to the Paris Agreement is the target of keeping global average temperatures from rising beyond 2°C. The UN argues that radical measures are needed, and investment incentives for clean electricity are seen as critical by many leaders to accelerate progress to meet that target.

Renewable power and electrification of transport are the pillars of decarbonization. It’s well underway in renewables - the collapse in costs make wind and solar generation competitive with new build coal and gas.

Renewables’ share of the global power market will triple by 2040 from its current level of 6% according to our forecasts.

The consumption side is slower, awaiting technological breakthrough and informed by efforts in countries such as New Zealand’s electricity transition to replace fossil fuels with electricity. The lower battery costs needed for electric vehicles (EVs) to compete head on and displace internal combustion engine (ICE)  cars are some years away. These forces only start to have a significant impact on global carbon intensity in the 2030s. Our forecasts fall well short of the 2°C target, as does the IEA’s base case scenario.

Yet we can’t just wait for new technology to come to the rescue. There are encouraging signs that society sees the need to deal with a deteriorating environment. Three areas of focus came out in discussion during Wood Mackenzie’s London Energy Forum - unrelated, different in scope and scale, each pointing the way forward.

First, clean air in cities.  China has shown how to clean up a local environment quickly. The government reacted to poor air quality in Beijing and other major cities by closing older coal power plants and forcing energy intensive industry and the residential sector to shift away from coal. The country’s return on investment will include a substantial future health care dividend.

European cities are introducing restrictions on diesel cars to improve air quality. London’s 2017 “toxicity charge” is a precursor of an Ultra-Low Emission Zone in 2019, and aligns with UK net-zero policy changes that affect transport planning, to be extended across much of the city by 2020. Paris wants to ban diesel cars from the city centre by 2025 and ICE vehicles by 2030. Barcelona, Madrid, Hamburg and Stuttgart are hatching similar plans.

College Promise In California: Community-Wide Efforts To Support Student Success

Second, desulphurisation of global shipping. High sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) meets around 3.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of the total marine market of 5 million b/d. A maximum of 3.5% sulphur content is allowed currently. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) implements a 0.5% limit on all shipping in 2020, dramatically reducing the release of sulphur oxides into the atmosphere.

Some ships will switch to very low sulphur fuel oil, of which only around 1.4 million b/d will be available in 2020. Others will have to choose between investing in scrubbers or buying premium-priced low sulphur marine gas oil.

Longer-term, lower carbon-intensity gas is a winner as liquefied natural gas becomes fuel of choice for many newbuilds. Marine LNG demand climbs from near zero to 50 million tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2040 on our forecasts, behind only China, India and Japan as a demand centre. LNG will displace over 1 million b/d of oil demand in shipping by 2040.

Third, Europe’s radical decarbonisation plans. Already in the vanguard of emissions reductions policy, the European Commission is proposing to reduce carbon emissions for new cars and vans by 30% by 2030 versus 2020. The targets come with incentives for car manufacturers linked to the uptake of EVs.

The 2050 roadmap, presently at the concept stage, envisages a far more demanding regime, with EU electricity plans for 2050 implying a much larger power system. The mooted 80% reduction in emissions compared with 1990 will embrace all sectors. Power and transport are already moving in this direction, but the legacy fuel mix in many other sectors will be disrupted, too.

Near zero-energy buildings and homes might be possible with energy efficiency improvements, renewables and heat pumps. Electrification, recycling and bioenergy could reduce fossil fuel use in energy intensive sectors like steel and aluminium, and Europe’s oil majors going electric illustrates how incumbents are adapting. Some sectors will cite the risk decarbonisation poses to Europe’s global competitiveness. If change is to come, industry will need to build new partnerships with society to meet these targets.

The 2050 roadmap signals the ambition and will be game changing for Europe if it is adopted. It would provide a template for a global roll out that would go a long way toward meeting UN’s concerns.

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Lebanon-ENOC Fuel Swap secures Iraqi high sulphur fuel oil, Grade B fuel oil, and gasoil via tender, easing electricity generation shortfalls, diesel shortages, and grid outages amid Lebanon's energy crisis and power sector emergency.

Key Points

A tender-based exchange trading Iraqi HSFO for cleaner fuel oil and gasoil to stabilize Lebanon's electricity generation.

✅ Swaps 84,000t Iraqi HSFO for 30,000t Grade B fuel oil and 33,000t gasoil

✅ Supports state electricity generation during acute power shortages

✅ Tender won by ENOC under Lebanon-Iraq goods-for-fuel deal

Lebanon's energy ministry said it had picked Dubai's ENOC in a tender to swap 84,000 tonnes of Iraqi high sulphur fuel oil, as LNG export authorizations expand globally, with 30,000 tonnes of Grade B fuel oil and 33,000 tonnes of gasoil.

ENOC won the tender, part of a deal between the two countries that allows the cash-strapped Lebanese government, even as electricity tensions persist, to pay for 1 million tonnes of Iraqi heavy fuel oil a year in goods and services.

As Lebanon suffers what the World Bank has described as one of the deepest depressions of modern history, shortages of fuel this month have meant state-powered electricity, alongside ongoing electricity sector reform, has been available for barely a few hours a day if at all.

Residents turning to private generators for their power supply face diesel shortages, even as other countries roll out measures to secure electricity supplies to mitigate risks.

The swap tenders are essential as Iraqi fuel is unsuitable for Lebanese electricity generation, and regional projects like the Jordan-Saudi electricity linkage underscore broader grid strategies.

Lebanese caretaker Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar said in July the fuel from the Iraqi deal would be used for electricity generation by the state provider, even as France advances a new electricity pricing scheme in Europe, and was enough for around four months.

ENOC is set to receive the Iraq fuel between Sept. 3-5 and will deliver it to Lebanon two weeks after, the energy ministry said, following a recent deal on electricity prices abroad that could influence markets.

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Electricity System Climate Resilience underpins grid reliability amid heatwaves and drought, integrating solar, wind, hydropower, nuclear, storage, and demand response with efficient transmission, flexibility, and planning to secure power for homes, industry, and services.

Key Points

Power systems capacity to endure extreme weather and integrate clean energy, maintaining reliability and flexibility.

✅ Grid hardening, transmission upgrades, and digital forecasting.

✅ Flexible low-carbon supply: hydropower, nuclear, storage.

✅ Demand response, efficient cooling, and regional integration.

Summer is just half done in the northern hemisphere and yet we are already seeing electricity systems around the world struggling to cope with the severe strain of heatwaves and low rainfall.

These challenges highlight the urgent need for strong and well-planned policies and investments to improve the security of our electricity systems, which supply power to homes, offices, factories, hospitals, schools and other fundamental parts of our economies and societies. This means making our electricity systems more resilient to the effects of global warming – and more efficient and flexible as they incorporate rising levels of solar and wind power, as solar is now the cheapest electricity in history according to the IEA, which will be critical for reaching net-zero emissions in time to prevent even worse impacts from climate change.

A range of different countries, including the US, Canada and Iraq, have been hard hit by extreme weather recently in the form of unusually high temperatures. In North America, the heat soared to record levels in the Pacific Northwest. An electricity watchdog says that five US regions face elevated risks to the security of their electricity supplies this summer, underscoring US grid climate risks that could worsen, and that California’s risk level is even higher.

Heatwaves put pressure on electricity systems in multiple ways. They increase demand as people turn up air conditioning, driving higher US electricity bills for many households, and as some appliances work harder to maintain cool temperatures. At the same time, higher temperatures can also squeeze electricity supplies by reducing the efficiency and capacity of traditional thermal power plants, such as coal, natural gas and nuclear. Extreme heat can reduce the availability of water for cooling plants or transporting fuel, forcing operators to reduce their output. In some cases, it can result in power plants having to shut down, increasing the risk of outages. If the heat wave is spread over a wide geographic area, it also reduces the scope for one region to draw on spare capacity from its neighbours, since they have to devote their available resources to meeting local demand.

A recent heatwave in Texas forced the grid operator to call for customers to raise their thermostats’ temperatures to conserve energy. Power generating companies suffered outages at much higher rates than expected, providing an unwelcome reminder of February’s brutal cold snap when outages – primarily from natural gas power plants – left up to 5 million customers across the US without power over a period of four days.

At the same time, lower than average rainfall and prolonged dry weather conditions are raising concerns about hydropower’s electricity output in various parts of the world, including Brazil, China, India and North America. The risks that climate change brings in the form of droughts adds to the challenges faced by hydropower, the world’s largest source of clean electricity, highlighting the importance of developing hydropower resources sustainably and ensuring projects are climate resilient.

The recent spate of heatwaves and unusually long dry spells are fresh warnings of what lies ahead as our climate continues to heat up: an increase in the scale and frequency of extreme weather events, which will cause greater impacts and strains on our energy infrastructure.

Heatwaves will increase the challenge of meeting electricity demand while also decarbonizing the electricity supply. Today, the amount of energy used for cooling spaces – such as homes, shops, offices and factories – is responsible for around 1 billion tonnes of global CO2 emissions. In particular, energy for cooling can have a major impact on peak periods of electricity demand, intensifying the stress on the system. Since the energy demand used for air conditioners worldwide could triple by 2050, these strains are set to grow unless governments introduce stronger policy measures to improve the energy efficiency of air conditioning units.

Electricity security is crucial for smooth energy transitions
Many countries around the world have announced ambitious targets for reaching net-zero emissions by the middle of this century and are seeking to step up their clean energy transitions. The IEA’s recent Global Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050 makes it clear that achieving this formidable goal will require much more electricity, much cleaner electricity and for that electricity to be used in far more parts of our economies than it is today. This means electricity reaching much deeper into sectors such as transport (e.g. EVs), buildings (e.g. heat-pumps) and industry (e.g. electric-arc steel furnaces), and in countries like New Zealand's electrification plans it is accelerating broader efforts. As clean electricity’s role in the economy expands and that of fossil fuels declines, secure supplies of electricity become ever-more important. This is why the climate resilience of the electricity sector must be a top priority in governments’ policy agendas.

Changing climate patterns and more frequent extreme weather events can hit all types of power generation sources. Hydropower resources typically suffer in hot and dry conditions, but so do nuclear and fossil fuel power plants. These sources currently help ensure electricity systems have the flexibility and capacity to integrate rising shares of solar and wind power, whose output can vary depending on the weather and the time of day or year.

As governments and utilities pursue the decarbonization of electricity systems, mainly through growing levels of solar and wind, and carbon-free electricity options, they need to ensure they have sufficiently robust and diverse sources of flexibility to ensure secure supplies, including in the event of extreme weather events. This means that the possible decommissioning of existing power generation assets requires careful assessments that take into account the importance of climate resilience.

Ensuring electricity security requires long-term planning and stronger policy action and investment
The IEA is committed to helping governments make well-informed decisions as they seek to build a clean and secure energy future. With this in mind, here are seven areas for action for ensuring electricity systems are as resilient as possible to climate risks:

1. Invest in electricity grids to make them more resilient to extreme weather. Spending today is far below the levels needed to double the investment for cleaner, more electrified energy systems, particularly in emerging and developing economies. Economic recovery plans from the COVID-19 crisis offer clear opportunities for economies that have the resources to invest in enhancing grid infrastructure, but much greater international efforts are required to mobilize and channel the necessary spending in emerging and developing economies.

2. Improve the efficiency of cooling equipment. Cost-effective technology already exists in most markets to double or triple the efficiency of cooling equipment. Investing in higher efficiency could halve future energy demand and reduce investment and operating costs by $3 trillion between now and 2050. In advance of COP26, the Super-Efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) initiative is encouraging countries to sign up to double the energy efficiency of equipment sold in their countries by 2030.

3. Enable the growth of flexible low-carbon power sources to support more solar and wind. These electricity generation sources include hydropower and nuclear, for countries who see a role for one or both of them in their energy transitions. Guaranteeing hydropower resilience in a warming climate will require sophisticated methods and tools – such as the ones implemented in Brazil – to calculate the necessary level of reserves and optimize management of reservoirs and hydropower output even in exceptional conditions. Batteries and other forms of storage, combined with solar or wind, can also provide important amounts of flexibility by storing power and releasing it when needed.

4. Increase other sources of electricity system flexibility. Demand-response and digital technologies can play an important role. The IEA estimates that only a small fraction of the huge potential for demand response in the buildings sector is actually tapped at the moment. New policies, which associate digitalization and financial behavioural incentives, could unlock more flexibility. Regional integration of electricity systems across national borders can also increase access to flexible resources.

5. Expedite the development and deployment of new technologies for managing extreme weather threats. The capabilities of electricity utilities in forecasting and situation awareness should be enhanced with the support of the latest information and communication technologies.

6. Make climate resilience a central part of policy-making and system planning. The interconnected nature of recent extreme weather events reminds us that we need to account for many contingencies when planning resilient power systems. Climate resilience should be integral to policy-making by governments and power system planning by utilities and relevant industries, and debates over Canadian climate policy underscore how grid implications must be considered. According to the recent IEA report on climate resilience, only nine out of 38 IEA member and association countries include concrete actions on climate adaptation and resilience for every segment of electricity systems.

7. Strengthen international cooperation on electricity security. Electricity underpins vital services and basic needs, such as health systems, water supplies and other energy industries. Maintaining a secure electricity supply is thus of critical importance. The costs of doing nothing in the face of growing climate threats are becoming abundantly clear. The IEA is working with all countries in the IEA family, as well as others around the world, by providing unrivalled data, analysis and policy advice on electricity security issues. It is also bringing governments together at various levels to share experiences and best practices, and identify how to hasten the shift to cleaner and more resilient energy systems.

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Kentucky Coal Wage Protection Bill strengthens performance bond enforcement, links Energy and Environment Cabinet and Labor Cabinet notifications, addresses Blackjewel bankruptcy fallout, safeguards unpaid miners, ties mining permits to payroll bonds, penalizes violators via revocations.

Key Points

A Kentucky plan to enforce wage bonds and revoke mining permits to protect miners after bankruptcies.

✅ Requires wage bonds for firms under 5 years

✅ Links Energy and Environment Cabinet and Labor Cabinet

✅ Violators face permit revocation in 90 days

Following the high-profile bankruptcy of a coal company that left hundreds of Kentucky miners with bad checks last month, Sen. Johnny Ray Turner (D-Prestonsburg) said he will pre-file a bill Thursday aimed at closing a loophole that allowed the company to operate in violation of state law.

The bill would also compel state agencies to determine whether other companies are currently in violation of the law, and could revoke mining permits if the companies don't comply.

Turner's bill would amend an already-existing law that requires coal and construction companies that have been operating in Kentucky for less than five years to post a performance bond to protect wages if the companies cease their operations.

Blackjewel LLC., which employed hundreds of miners in Eastern Kentucky, failed to post that bond. When it shut its mines down and filed for bankruptcy last month, it left hundreds of miners without payment for 3 weeks and one day of work.

The bond issue has sparked criticism from various state officials, including Attorney General Andy Beshear, who said Tuesday that he would investigate whether other companies are currently in violation, similar to an external investigation of utility workers in another jurisdiction.

Blackjewel issued cold checks to its employees June 28, and when the checks bounced days later, many employees were left with bank accounts overdrawn by more than $1,000. The bankruptcy left many miners and their families with concerns over upcoming bill and mortgage payments, and, as unpaid days off at utilities elsewhere show, the strain on workers can be severe, and fostered a ongoing protest that blocked a train hauling coal from one of the company's Harlan County mines.

Blackjewel had been operating in Kentucky for about two years before it filed for bankruptcy, so it should have paid the performance bond, according to state law.

David A. Dickerson, the Kentucky Labor Cabinet Secretary, said the law as it's currently written does not set up any mechanism that notifies the cabinet, or provides comparable public reporting at large utility projects elsewhere, when a company opens in Kentucky that is supposed to pay the bond.

That allowed Blackjewel to operate for two years without any protection for workers before it closed its mines. Had the company posted the bond according to state law, miners likely would have been paid for the work they had already completed, officials said.

The law requires companies to set aside enough money to cover payroll for four weeks.

Turner's bill would compel the state Energy and Environment Cabinet to notify the Labor Cabinet's Department of Workplace Standards of any application for a mining permit from a company that has been doing business in Kentucky for less than five years.

It also compels the EEC to notify the Labor Cabinet of any companies that already have permits that are subject to the bond.

"It should have already been that way, but I'm happy so our children don't have to go through this," said Jeff Willig, a former Blackjewel miner who helped launch the protest at the railroad.

Willig said he and other miners will continue to block the tracks until they receive payment for their past work.

Any company currently operating in violation of the law would have 90 days to become compliant before its mining permits are revoked. New companies that are applying for permits will be required post the bond before permits are issued.

"Hopefully it will take care of the loopholes that had been exploited by Blackjewel," Turner said.

The bill will be taken up by the legislature when it returns to session in January. It would also cover attorneys' fees if workers are forced to sue their employer to cover wages, underscoring broader worker safety concerns during health emergencies.

Turner said he has reached out to Republican leadership in the Senate, and expects the bill to have bipartisan support come January.

Turner announced the legislation at a press conference in Harlan, the county with the highest population of Blackjewel employees affected by the bankruptcy, and as prolonged utility outages after tornadoes have strained other Kentucky communities.

State rep. Angie Hatton (D-Whitesburg) was also in attendance, along with rep. Chris Fugate (R-Chavies) and state Sen. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville).

Hatton said the bankruptcy has had serious economic impact throughout Eastern Kentucky, including in Letcher County, which is home to more than 130 former Blackjewel workers.

"This is something that has done a lot of damage to Eastern Kentucky," Hatton said.

Hatton plans to file the same bill in the state House of Representatives.

Fugate commended community members in Harlan County and elsewhere who have banded together in support of the miners by donating children's clothing, school supplies, food and other goods, while other regions have created a coal transition fund to help displaced workers.

Mosley called the bankruptcy "totally unprecedented" and said the current performance bond law, which has been on-the-books since 1986, lacked the enforcement necessary to protect miners in bankruptcies like Blackjewel's, even as a workplace safety fine in another case shows regulatory consequences in other industries.

"There was a law, there wasn't good enough process," Mosley said.

Blackjewel received court approval to sell many of its mines last month, including many in Kentucky, to Kopper Glo Mining, LLC.

As part of the sale agreement, Kopper Glo said it would pay $450,000 to cover the past wages of Blackjewel miners, and collect a per ton fee accumulating up to $550,000 that it will also contribute to pay back wages.

That total $1 million is less than half of all back wages owed to Blackjewel miners, but attorneys who filed a class action suit against the company said miners have a priority lien on the purchase price. That could allow former Blackjewel employees to make good on their back wages as bankruptcy proceedings continue.

Mosley said he spoke with a Kopper Glo official Thursday, who said the company is working to re-open the mines as quickly as possible. The official did not give an exact timeline.

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Covid-19 Energy Transition and Machine Learning reshape climate change policy, electricity planning, and grid operations, from demand forecasting and decarbonization strategies in Europe to scalable electrification modeling and renewable integration across Africa.

Key Points

How the pandemic reshapes energy policy and how ML improves planning, demand forecasts, and grid reliability in Africa.

✅ Pandemic-driven demand shifts strain grid operations and markets

✅ Policy momentum risks rollback; favor future-oriented decarbonization

✅ ML boosts demand prediction, electrification, and grid reliability in Africa

The impact of Covid-19 on the energy system was discussed in an online climate change workshop that also considered how machine learning can help electricity planning in Africa.

This year’s International Conference on Learning Representations event included a workshop held by the Climate Change AI group of academics and artificial intelligence industry representatives, which considered how machine learning can help tackle climate change and highlighted advances by European electricity prediction specialists working in this field.

Bjarne Steffen, senior researcher at the energy politics group at ETH Zürich, shared his insights at the workshop on how Covid-19 and the accompanying economic crisis are affecting recently introduced ‘green’ policies. “The crisis hit at a time when energy policies were experiencing increasing momentum towards climate action, especially in Europe, and in proposals to invest in smarter electricity infrastructure for long-term resilience,” said Steffen, who added the coronavirus pandemic has cast into doubt the implementation of such progressive policies.

The academic said there was a risk of overreacting to the public health crisis, as far as progress towards climate change goals was concerned.

Lobbying

“Many interest groups from carbon-intensive industries are pushing to remove the emissions trading system and other green policies,” said Steffen. “In cases where those policies are having a serious impact on carbon-emitting industries, governments should offer temporary waivers during this temporary crisis, instead of overhauling the regulatory structure.”

However, the ETH Zürich researcher said any temptation to impose environmental conditions to bail-outs for carbon-intensive industries should be resisted. “While it is tempting to push a green agenda in the relief packages, tying short-term environmental conditions to bail-outs is impractical, given the uncertainty in how long this crisis will last,” he said. “It is better to include provisions that will give more control over future decisions to decarbonize industries, such as the government taking equity shares in companies.”

Steffen shared with pv magazine readers an article published in Joule which can be accessed here, and which articulates his arguments about how Covid-19 could affect the energy transition.

Covid-19 in the U.K.

The electricity system in the U.K. is also being affected by Covid-19, even as the U.S. electric grid grapples with climate risks, according to Jack Kelly, founder of London-based, not-for-profit, greenhouse gas emission reduction research laboratory Open Climate Fix.

“The crisis has reduced overall electricity use in the U.K.,” said Kelly. “Residential use has increased but this has not offset reductions in commercial and industrial loads.”

Steve Wallace, a power system manager at British electricity system operator National Grid ESO recently told U.K. broadcaster the BBC electricity demand has fallen 15-20% across the U.K. The National Grid ESO blog has stated the fall-off makes managing grid functions such as voltage regulation more challenging.

Open Climate Fix’s Kelly noted even events such as a nationally-coordinated round of applause for key workers was followed by a dramatic surge in demand, stating: “On April 16, the National Grid saw a nearly 1 GW spike in electricity demand over 10 minutes after everyone finished clapping for healthcare workers and went about the rest of their evenings.”

Climate Change AI workshop panelists also discussed the impact machine learning could have on improving electricity planning in Africa. The Electricity Growth and Use in Developing Economies (e-Guide) initiative funded by fossil fuel philanthropic organization the Rockefeller Foundation aims to use data to improve the planning and operation of electricity systems in developing countries.

E-Guide members Nathan Williams, an assistant professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) in New York state, and Simone Fobi, a PhD student at Columbia University in NYC, spoke about their work at the Climate Change AI workshop, which closed on Thursday. Williams emphasized the importance of demand prediction, saying: “Uncertainty around current and future electricity consumption leads to inefficient planning. The weak link for energy planning tools is the poor quality of demand data.”

Fobi said: “We are trying to use machine learning to make use of lower-quality data and still be able to make strong predictions.”

The market maturity of individual solar home systems and PV mini-grids in Africa mean more complex electrification plan modeling is required, similar to integrating AI data centers into Canada's grids at scale.

Modeling

“When we are doing [electricity] access planning, we are trying to figure out where the demand will be and how much demand will exist so we can propose the right technology,” added Fobi. “This makes demand estimation crucial to efficient planning.”

Unlike many traditional modeling approaches, machine learning is scalable and transferable. Rochester’s Williams has been using data from nations such as Kenya, which are more advanced in their electrification efforts, to train machine learning models to make predictions to guide electrification efforts in countries which are not as far down the track.

Williams also discussed work being undertaken by e-Guide members at the Colorado School of Mines, which uses nighttime satellite imagery and machine learning to assess the reliability of grid infrastructure in India, where new algorithms to prevent ransomware-induced blackouts are also advancing.

Rural power

Another e-Guide project, led by Jay Taneja at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst – and co-funded by the Energy and Economic Growth program on development spending based at Berkeley – uses satellite imagery to identify productive uses of electricity in rural areas by detecting pollution signals from diesel irrigation pumps.

Though good quality data is often not readily available for Africa, Williams added, it does exist.

“We have spent years developing trusting relationships with utilities,” said the RIT academic. “Once our partners realize the value proposition we can offer, they are enthusiastic about sharing their data … We can’t do machine learning without high-quality data and this requires that organizations can effectively collect, organize, store and work with data. Data can transform the electricity sector, as shown by Canadian projects to use AI for energy savings, but capacity building is crucial.”

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