Duke installs smart meters

By Knight Ridder Tribune


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Imagine receiving a break on your power bill if you wait until after 10 p.m. to wash your clothes. Or being able to see what it cost to iron your shirt.

Duke Energy Corp. is taking a first step toward that reality as it installs thousands of special power-saving meters in homes in several South Charlotte neighborhoods. Duke is also placing special communication boxes on poles in the neighborhoods. The meters and boxes work together to collect and transmit data to a central computer uptown.

There, numbers are crunched that Duke hopes will reveal useful trends about consumer power use. Someday, Duke wants to use the information and two-way communication to cycle appliances on and off during peak demand and to chart when customers use appliances that would be equipped with special sensors.

Using power-heavy appliances, such as dryers, during off-peak hours takes stress off the system and saves the company money. If you choose not to participate in some of the programs, you might receive an extra charge. It's all part of Duke's plans to cut power demand as it moves forward with aggressive energy efficiency plans called save-a-watt.

The N.C. Utilities Commission this year plans to review the proposal, which would allow the company to recoup profits lost from selling less electricity. Duke says efficiency programs mean it will build fewer expensive power plants in the future. Coal-fired plants, which provide 52 percent of Duke's power in the Carolinas, emit carbon dioxide - blamed as a cause of global warming.

But the company says it wants to be compensated. So-called smart meters cut power bills by 10 percent in a study of 112 households released Jan. 9 by the U.S. Energy Department.

Recently, a Duke crew traveled to homes on All Saints Lane in South Charlotte and replaced old General Electric meters with new ones, manufactured by Echelon, based in San Jose, Calif. Inside of 10 seconds, a Duke-hired technician popped out the old meter on the outside of the house and replaced it with the new meter - the same size and shape as the old round glass meters and built to Duke's specifications. The family inside wouldn't notice the seconds-long power outage - other than having to reset some clocks.

More than 250 meters have been installed and more are coming online each day. The company plans to install 5,000 in Charlotte and 2,500 north of Greenville, S.C. The utility wants its 4 million customers in the Carolinas and three Midwest states to have the new meters inside five years, said David Staggs, a Duke project manager.

Widespread adoption of the systems by the nation's utilities would save $70 billion in costs for new power plants and lines over 20 years, says a recent study from the U.S. Department of Energy. As many as 45 million smart meters may be ordered by 2011, said Sam Lucero, a consultant for ABI Research in Scottsdale, Ariz.

The number of smart meters installed in North America rose 26 percent last year to 15.8 million, Lucero said. That will surge o 61 million by 2013, he forecast. Duke's phasing in of new efficiency programs, which has begun with the meter installation, would remove consumer choice for some.

For example, about 185,000 residential Carolinas customers are signed up for a program that gives an $8 break on summer bills if they allow Duke to cycle their air conditioning on and off during peak demand. Under save-a-watt, Duke would use the meters to automatically enroll customers in that efficiency program.

Customers probably would no longer receive the special break, and those that opt out might have to pay something extra, said Duke spokesman Tom Williams. He stressed that the details of save-a-watt and future programs still have to be hammered out by regulators.

In addition to meters, customers might have special terminals in their homes to show real-time power use and cost, such as how much it just cost to cook a meal or iron a shirt, Staggs said. Duke said studies conclude that people who can see their power use on a screen are more likely to conserve.

"They can look at what their stove is costing them," Staggs said.

Duke Energy Corp. is equipping thousands of customers in Charlotte with new smart meters that communicate with a central command computer uptown. Duke says the meters, which would work as part of a broader communication network; can notify it of power outages before customers have to call; restore power quicker after ice storms and cut power usage for customers by analyzing exactly how they can save energy.

The meters would also help Duke cut down on the 7 to 9 percent of electricity lost because some power lines become too hot. For Duke in the Carolinas, that lost power equals nearly 2,000 megawatts, or four medium-sized power plants.

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Snohomish PUD Hikes Rates Due to Severe Weather Impact

Snohomish PUD rate increase addresses storm recovery after a bomb cyclone and extended cold snap, stabilizing finances and grid reliability while offering assistance programs, payment plans, and energy efficiency for customers.

 

Key Points

Temp 5.8% residential hike in Feb 2025 to recover storm costs, meet cold snap demand, and uphold reliable service.

✅ 5.8% residential increase effective Feb 2025

✅ Driven by bomb cyclone damage and cold snap demand

✅ Aid includes payment plans, efficiency rebates, low income support

 

In early February 2025, the Snohomish County Public Utility District (PUD) announced a temporary increase in electricity rates to offset the financial impact of severe weather events, including a bomb cyclone and an extended cold snap, that occurred in late 2024. This decision aims to stabilize the utility's finances, a pattern seen at other utilities such as Florida Power & Light, which pursued a hurricane surcharge to recover storm costs, while ensuring continued service reliability for its customers.

Background of the Weather Events

In November 2024, the Pacific Northwest experienced a powerful bomb cyclone—a rapidly intensifying storm characterized by a significant drop in atmospheric pressure. This event brought heavy rainfall, strong winds, and widespread power outages across the region. Compounding the situation, a prolonged cold weather period in December 2024 and January 2025 led to increased energy demand, and similar conditions drove up Pennsylvania power rates in the same winter season, as residents and businesses relied heavily on heating systems.

Impact on Snohomish PUD

The combination of the bomb cyclone and the subsequent cold weather placed considerable strain on the Snohomish PUD's infrastructure and financial resources. The utility incurred substantial costs for emergency repairs, restoration efforts, and the procurement of additional electricity to meet the heightened demand during the cold snap. These unforeseen expenses prompted the PUD to seek a temporary rate adjustment to maintain financial stability and continue providing reliable service to its customers.

Details of the Rate Increase

Effective February 2025, the Snohomish PUD implemented a temporary electricity rate increase of 5.8% for residential customers, compared with a 3% BC Hydro increase in the same region for context. This adjustment is designed to recover the additional costs incurred during the severe weather events. The PUD has communicated that this rate increase is temporary and will be reevaluated after a specified period to determine if further adjustments are necessary.

Customer Impact and Assistance Programs

While the rate increase is intended to be temporary, it may still pose a financial burden for some customers, even as some markets expect rates to stabilize in 2025 in other jurisdictions. To mitigate this impact, the Snohomish PUD has outlined several assistance programs:

  • Payment Plans: Customers facing financial hardship can enroll in extended payment plans to spread the cost of the increased rates over a longer period.

  • Energy Efficiency Programs: The PUD offers incentives and resources to help customers reduce energy consumption, potentially lowering their overall bills.

  • Low-Income Assistance: Eligible low-income customers may qualify for additional support through state and federal assistance programs.

The utility encourages customers to contact their customer service department to explore these options and find the best solutions for their individual circumstances.

Community Response and Future Considerations

The announcement of the rate increase has elicited mixed reactions from the community. Some residents express understanding, recognizing the necessity of maintaining infrastructure and service reliability. Others have voiced concerns about the financial impact, particularly among vulnerable populations, a debate also seen with higher BC Hydro rates in nearby British Columbia.

Looking ahead, the Snohomish PUD is committed to enhancing its infrastructure to better withstand future extreme weather events, an approach aligned with other utilities' multi-year rate proposals to fund upgrades. This includes investing in grid modernization, implementing advanced weather forecasting tools, and developing comprehensive emergency response plans. The utility also plans to engage with the community through public forums and surveys to gather feedback and collaboratively develop strategies that balance financial sustainability with customer affordability.

The temporary electricity rate increase by the Snohomish County Public Utility District reflects the financial challenges posed by severe weather events and parallels regional trends, including BC Hydro's 3.75% over two years adjustments, and underscores the importance of proactive infrastructure investment and community engagement. While the rate adjustment aims to stabilize the utility's finances, the PUD remains focused on supporting its customers through assistance programs and ongoing efforts to enhance service reliability and resilience against future climate-related events.

 

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Clean, affordable electricity should be an issue in the Ontario election

Ontario Electricity Supply Gap threatens growth as demand from EVs, heat pumps, industry, and greenhouses surges, pressuring the grid and IESO to add nuclear, renewables, storage, transmission, and imports while meeting net-zero goals.

 

Key Points

The mismatch as Ontario's electricity demand outpaces supply, driven by electrification, EVs, and industrial growth.

✅ Demand growth from EVs, heat pumps, and electrified industry

✅ Capacity loss from Pickering retirement and Darlington refurb

✅ Options: SMRs, renewables, storage, conservation, imports

 

Ontario electricity demand is forecast to soon outstrip supply as it confronts a shortage in the coming years, a problem that needs attention in the upcoming provincial election.

Forecasters say Ontario will need to double its power supply by 2050 as industries ramp up demand for low-emission clean power options and consumers switch to electric vehicles and space heating. But while the Ford government has made a flurry of recent energy announcements, including a hydrogen project at Niagara Falls and an interprovincial agreement on small nuclear reactors, it has not laid out how it intends to bulk up the province’s power supply.

“Ontario is entering a period of widening electricity shortfalls,” says the Ontario Chamber of Commerce. “Having a plan to address those shortfalls is essential to ensure businesses can continue investing and growing in Ontario with confidence.”

The supply and demand mismatch is coming because of brisk economic growth combined with increasing electrification to balance demand and emissions and meet Canada’s goal to reduce CO2 emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050.

Hamilton’s ArcelorMittal Dofasco and Algoma Steel in Sault Ste. Marie are leaders on this transformation. They plan to replace their blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces later this decade with electric arc furnaces (EAFs), reducing annual CO2 emissions by three million tonnes each.


Dofasco, which operates an EAF that is already the single largest electricity user in Ontario, plans to build a second EAF and a gas-fired ironmaking furnace, which can also be powered with zero-carbon hydrogen produced from electricity, once it becomes available.

Other new projects in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors are also expected to be big power users, including the recently announced $5 billion Stellantis-LG electric vehicle battery plant in Windsor. Five new transmission lines will be built to service the plant and the burgeoning greenhouse industry in southwestern Ontario. The greenhouses alone will require enough additional electricity to power a city the size of Ottawa.

On top of these demands, growing numbers of Ontario drivers are expected to switch to electric vehicles and many homeowners and business owners are expected to convert from gas heating to heat pumps and electric heating.

Ontario is recognized as one of the cleanest electricity systems in the world, with over 90 per cent of its capacity from low-emission nuclear, hydro, wind and other renewable generation. Only nine per cent comes from CO2-emitting gas plants. But that’s about to get dirtier according to analysts.

Annual electricity demand is expected to grow from 140 terawatt hours (a terawatt hour is one trillion watts for one hour) currently to about 200 terawatt hours in 2042, according to the Independent Electricity System Operator, the agency that manages Ontario’s grid.

Demand is expected to outstrip currently contracted supply in 2026, reaching a growing supply gap of about 80 terawatt hours by 2042. A big part of this gap is due to the scheduled retirement of the Pickering nuclear station in 2025 and the current refurbishment of the Darlington nuclear station reactors. While the IESO doesn’t expect blackouts or brownouts, it forecasts the province will need to sharply increase expensive power imports and triple the amount of CO2-polluting gas-fired generation.

Without cleaner, lower-cost alternatives, this will mean “a vastly dirtier and more expensive electricity system,” York University researchers Mark Winfield and Collen Kaiser said in a recent commentary.

The party that wins the provincial election will have to make hard decisions on renewable energy, including new wind and solar projects, energy conservation, battery storage, new hydro plants, small nuclear reactors, gas generation and power imports from the U.S. and Quebec. In addition, the federal government is pressing the provinces to meet a new net-zero clean electricity standard by 2035. These decisions will have huge impact on Ontario’s future, with greening the grid costs highlighted in some reports as potentially very high.

With so much at stake, Ontario’s political parties need to tell voters during the upcoming campaign how they would address these enormous challenges.

 

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UK families living close to nuclear power stations could get free electricity

UK Nuclear Free Electricity Incentive proposes community benefits near reactors, echoing France, supporting net zero goals, energy security, and streamlined planning, while addressing regulation and judicial review challenges for Sizewell C and future nuclear projects.

 

Key Points

A proposed policy to give free power to residents near reactors, supporting net zero and energy security.

✅ Free power for communities near nuclear plants

✅ Aligns with net zero and energy security goals

✅ Seeks streamlined planning and fewer approvals

 

UK Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg has endorsed a French-style nuclear system that sees people living near nuclear power stations receive free electricity.

Speaking at an event organised by Policy Exchange think tank, Jacob Rees-Mogg said: “Nuclear power is just fundamental. There’s no way we can get to net zero emissions, or even have an intelligent electricity strategy and grid reform in the UK, without nuclear.”

Highlighting that this was his view and not a government policy announcement, he said: “We should copy the French. As I understand, if you live near a nuclear power station in France, you get free electricity and that’s great because then, I’ll have two in my garden if I get free electricity for my children as well.

“I think you want to recognise that things you do that are in the national interest, such as a state-owned generation company, must benefit those who make the sacrifice for the national interest.”

Earlier Mr Rees-Mogg stressed that he would like to see a simpler development consent process for new nuclear power plants to enable the next waves of reactors in the UK, amid concerns that Europe is losing nuclear power just when it really needs energy.

He said: “That’s a lot of regulation around that, as seen when nuclear plant plans collapsed in Wales and impacted the local economy. Did you know that Sizewell C will require 140 individual approvals from arms of the state, each one of which is potentially subject to judicial review.”

 

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Alberta sets new electricity usage record during deep freeze

Alberta Electricity Demand Record surges during a deep freeze, as AESO reports peak load in megawatts and ENMAX notes increased usage in Calgary and Edmonton, with thermostats up amid a cold snap straining power grid.

 

Key Points

It is the highest electricity peak load recorded by AESO, reflecting maximum grid usage during cold snaps.

✅ AESO reported 11,729 MW peak during the deep freeze

✅ ENMAX saw a 13 percent demand jump week over week

✅ Cold snap drove thermostats up in Calgary and Edmonton

 

Albertans are cranking up their thermostats and blasting heat into their homes at overwhelmingly high rates as the deep freeze continues across the region. 

It’s so cold that the province set a new all-time record Tuesday evening for electricity usage. 

According to the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), as electricity prices spike in Alberta during extreme demand, 11,729 MW of power was used around 7 p.m. Tuesday, passing the previous record set in January of last year by 31 MW.

Temperatures reached a low of -29 C in Calgary, where rising electricity bills have strained budgets, on Tuesday while Edmonton saw a low of -30 C, according to Environment Canada. Wind chill  made it feel closer to -40.

“That increase — 31 Megawatts — is sizeable and about the equivalent of a moderately sized generation facility,” said AESO communications director, Mike Deising. 

“We do see higher demand in winter because it’s cold and it’s dark and that’s really exactly what we’re seeing right now as demand goes up, people turn on their lights and turn up their furnaces,” and with the UCP scrapping the price cap earlier that’s really exactly what we’re seeing right now as demand goes up, people turn on their lights and turn up their furnaces.”

Deising adds Alberta’s electricity usage over the last year has actually been much lower than average, though experts urge Albertans to lock in rates amid expected volatility, despite more people staying home during the pandemic. 

That trend was continuing into 2021, but as Alberta's rising electricity prices draw attention, it’s expected that more records could be broken. 

“If the cold snap continues we may likely set another record (Wednesday) or (Thursday), depending on what happens with the temperatures,” he said. 

Meanwhile, ENMAX has reported an average real-time system demand of 1,400 MW for the city of Calgary. 

That amount is still a far cry from the current season record of 1,619 MW (Aug. 18, 2020), the all-time winter record of 1,653MW (Dec. 2, 2013), and the all-time summer record of 1,692 MW (Aug. 10, 2018). 

ENMAX says electricity demand has increased quite significantly over the past week — by about 13 per cent — since the cold snap set in. 

As a result, the energy company is once again rolling out its ‘Winter Wise’ campaign in an effort to encourage Calgarians to manage both electricity and natural gas use in the winter, even as a consumer price cap on power bills is enabled by new legislation.

 

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Electricity subsidies to pulp and paper mills to continue, despite NB Power's rising debt

NB Power Pulp and Paper Subsidies lower electricity rates for six New Brunswick mills using firm power benchmarks and interruptible discounts, while government mandates, utility debt, ratepayer impacts, and competitiveness pressures shape provincial energy policy.

 

Key Points

Provincial mandates that buy down firm electricity rates for six mills to a national average, despite NB Power's debt.

✅ Mandated buy-down to match national firm electricity rates

✅ Ignores large non-firm interruptible power discounts

✅ Raises equity concerns amid NB Power debt and rate pressure

 

An effort to fix NB Power's struggling finances that is supposed to involve a look at "all options" will not include a review of the policy that requires the utility to subsidize electricity prices for six New Brunswick pulp and paper mills, according to the Department of Natural Resources and Energy Development.

The program is meant "to enable New Brunswick's pulp and paper companies have access to competitive priced electricity,"  said the department's communications officer Nick Brown in an email Monday 

"Keeping our large industries competitive with other Canadian jurisdictions, amid Nova Scotia rate hike opposition debates elsewhere, is important," he wrote, knocking down the idea the subsidy program might be scrutinized for shortcomings like other NB Power expenses.

Figures released last week show NB Power paid out $9.7 million in rate subsidies to the mills under the program in the fiscal year ended in March 2021, even though the utility was losing $4 million for the year and falling deeper into debt, amid separate concerns about old meter issues affecting households.

Subsidies went to three mills owned by J.D. Irving Ltd. including two in Saint John and one in Lake Utopia, two owned by the AV group in Nackawic and Atholville and the Twin Rivers pulp mill in Edmundston.

The New Brunswick government has made NB Power subsidize pulp and paper mills like Twin Rivers Paper Company since 2012, and is requiring the program to continue despite financial problems at the utility. (CBC)
It was NB Power's second year in a row of financial losses, while it is supposed to pay down $500 million of its $4.9 billion debt load in the next five years to prepare for the refurbishment of the Mactaquac dam, a burden comparable to customers in Newfoundland paying for Muskrat Falls elsewhere under separate policies, under a directive issued by the province

NB Power president Keith Cronkhite said he was "very disappointed" with debt increasing last year instead of  falling and senior vice president and chief financial officer Darren Murphy said everything would be under the microscope this year to turn the utility's finances around.  

"We need to do better," said Murphy on Thursday

"We need to step back and make sure we're considering all options, including approaches like Newfoundland's ratepayer shield agreement on megaproject overruns, to achieve that objective because the objective is quickly closing in on us."

However, reviewing the subsidy program for the six pulp and paper mills is apparently off limits.

The subsidy program requires NB Power to buy down the cost of "firm" electricity bought by pulp and paper mills to a national average that is calculated by the Department of Natural Resources and Energy Development.

Last year the province declared the price mills in New Brunswick pay to be an average of  7.536 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh).  It is higher than rates in five other provinces that have mills, which the province points to as justification for the subsidies, even as Nova Scotia's 14% rate hike approval highlights broader upward pressure, although the true significance of that difference is not entirely clear.

In British Columbia, the large forest products company Paper Excellence operates five pulp and paper mills which are charged 17.2 per cent less for firm electricity than the six mills in New Brunswick.

The Paper Excellence Paper Mill in Port Alberni, B.C. pays lower electricity prices than mills in New Brunswick, a benefit largely offset by higher property taxes. It's a factor New Brunswick does not count in calculating subsidies NB Power must pay. (Paper Excellence)
However, local property taxes on the five BC mills are a combined $7.8 million higher than the six New Brunswick plants, negating much of that difference.

The province's subsidy formula does not account for differences like that or for the fact New Brunswick mills buy a high percentage of their electricity at cheap non-firm prices.

Not counting the subsidies, NB Power already sells high volumes of what it calls interruptible and surplus power to industry at deep discounts on the understanding it can be cut off and redeployed elsewhere on short notice when needed.

Actual interruptions in service are rare.  Last year there were none, but NB Power sold 837 million kilowatt hours of the discounted power to industry at an average price of 4.9 cents per kwh.   

NB Power does not disclose how much of the $22 million or more in savings went to the six mills, but the price was 35 per cent below NB Power's posted rate for the plants and rivaled firm prices big mills receive anywhere in Canada, including Quebec.

Asked why the subsidy program ignores large amounts of discounted interruptible power used by New Brunswick mills in making comparisons between provinces, Brown said regulations governing the program require a comparison of firm prices only.

"The New Brunswick average rate is based on NB Power's published large industrial rate for firm energy, as required by the Electricity from Renewable Resources regulation," he wrote.

The subsidy program itself was imposed on NB Power by the province in 2012 to aid companies suffering after years of poor markets for forest products following the 2008 financial collapse and recession.  

Providing subsidies has cost NB Power $100 million so far and has continued even as markets for pulp products improved significantly and NB Power's own finances worsened.

Report warned against subsidies
NB Power has never directly criticized the program, but in a matter currently in front the of the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board looking at how NB Power might restructure its rates, including proposals such as seasonal rates that could prompt backlash, an independent consultant hired by the utility suggested rate subsidies to large export oriented manufacturing facilities, like pulp and paper mills, is generally a poor idea.

"We do not recommend offering subsidies to exporters," says the report by Christensen Associates Energy Consulting of Madison, Wis.

"There are two serious economic problems with subsidizing exports. The first is that the benefits may be less than the costs. The second problem is that subsidies tend to last forever, even if the circumstances that initially justified the subsidies have disappeared."

The Christensen report did not directly assess the merits of the current subsidy for pulp and paper mills but it addressed the issue because it said in the design of new rates "one NB Power business customer has raised the possibility that their electricity-intensive business ought to be granted subsidies because of the potential to generate extra benefits for the Province through increases in their exports"

That, said Christensen, rarely benefits the public.

"The direct costs of the subsidies are the subsidies themselves, a part of which ends up in the pockets of out-of-province consumers of the exported goods," said the report.  

"But there are also indirect costs due to the fact that the subsidies are financed through higher electricity prices, which means that other electricity customers have less money to spend on services provided by local businesses, thus putting a drag on the local economy."

The province does not agree.

Asked whether it has any studies or cost-benefit reviews that show the subsidy program is a net benefit to New Brunswick, the department cited none but maintained it is an important initiative, even as elsewhere governments have offered electricity bill credit relief to ratepayers.

"The program was designed to give large industrial businesses the ability to compete on a level energy field," wrote Brown.
 

 

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Electricity Demand In The Time Of COVID-19

COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Power Demand shows falling electricity load, lower wholesale prices, and resilient utilities in competitive markets, with regional differences tied to weather, renewable energy, stay-at-home orders, and hedging strategies.

 

Key Points

It outlines reduced load and prices, while regulatory design and hedging support utility stability across regions.

✅ Load down in NY, New England, PJM; weather drives South up.

✅ Wholesale prices fall 8-10% in key markets.

✅ Decoupling, contracts, hedging support utility earnings.

 

On March 27, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) released a report on electricity demand and wholesale market prices impact from COVID-19 fallout. The model compares expected load based largely on weather with actual observed electricity demand changes.

So far, the hardest hit power grid is New York, with load down 7 and prices off by 10 percent. That’s expected, given New York City is the current epicenter of the US health crisis.

Next is New England, with 5 percent lower demand and 8 percent reduced wholesale prices for the week from March 19-25. BNEF says the numbers could go higher following advisories and orders issued March 24 for some 70 percent of the region’s population to stay at home.

Demand on the biggest grid in the US, the PJM (Pennsylvania/Jersey/Maryland), is 4 percent lower, with prices dropping 8 percent, as recent capacity auction payouts fell sharply. BNEF believes there will be more impact as stay at home orders are ramped up in several states.

California’s power demand for March 19-25 was 5 percent below what BNEF’s model expects without COVID-19 impact. That reflects a full week of stay-at-home orders from Governor Newsom issued March 19.

Health officials in Los Angeles and elsewhere expect a spike in COVID-19 cases in coming weeks. But BNEF’s model now actually projects rising electricity load for the state, due to what it calls "freakishly mild weather a year ago."

Rounding out the report, power demand is up for a band of southern states stretching from Florida to the desert Southwest, with weather more than offsetting public response to COVID-19 so far. BNEF says the Northwest’s grid "has not yet been highly impacted," while the Southeast is "generally in line" with pre-virus expectations.

Clearly, all of this data can change quickly and radically. Only California and New York are currently in full shutdown mode. Following them are New England (70 percent), the Midwest (65 percent), Texas (50 percent), PJM (50 percent) and the Northwest (50 percent).

In contrast, only small parts of Florida, the Southeast and Southwest are restricting movement. That could mean a big future increase for shut-ins, with heightened risks of electricity shut-offs that burden households and a corresponding impact on power demand.

Also, weather will play a major role on what happens to actual electricity demand, just as it always does. A very hot summer, for example, could offset virus-related shut-ins, just as it apparently is now in states like Texas. And it should be pointed out that regions vary widely by exposure to recession-sensitive sources of demand, such as heavy industry.

Most important for investors, however, is the built in protection US utility earnings enjoy from declining power demand, even amid broader energy crisis pressures facing the sector. For one thing, US power grids in California, ERCOT (Texas), MISO (Midwest), New England, New York and PJM have wholesale power markets, where producers compete for sales and the lowest bidder sets the price.

In those states, most regulated utilities don’t produce power at all. In fact, companies’ revenue is decoupled entirely from demand in California, as well as much of New England. In the roughly three-dozen states where utilities still operate as integrated monopolies, demand does affect revenue, and in many regions flat electricity demand already persists. But the cost of electricity is passed through directly to customers, whether produced or purchased.

A number of US electric companies have invested in renewable energy facilities as part of broader electrification trends nationwide. These sell their output under long-term contracts primarily with other utilities and government entities.

This isn’t a risk free business: For the past year, generators selling electricity to bankrupt PG&E Corp (PCG) have had their cash trapped at the power plant level as surety for lenders. But even PG&E has honored its contracts. And with states continuing aggressive mandates for renewable energy adoption, growth doesn’t appear at risk to COVID-19 fallout either.

The wholesale price of power from natural gas, coal and many nuclear plants was already sliding before COVID-19, due to renewables adoption and low natural gas prices, even as coal and nuclear disruptions raise reliability concerns. But here too, big producers like Exelon Corp (EXC) and Vistra Energy (VST) have employed aggressive price hedging near term, with regulated utilities and retail businesses protecting long-term health, respectively.

Bottom line: It’s early days for the COVID-19 crisis and much can still change. But so far at least, the US power industry is absorbing the blow of reduced demand, just as it’s done in previous crises.

That means future selloffs in the ongoing bear market are buying opportunities for best in class electric utilities, not a reason to sell. For top candidates, see the Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolios and Dream Buy List in the March issue. 

 

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