California CCS Coalition is born

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Prompted by a study highlighting the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to meet California's long-term target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, a group of energy companies with an interest in advancing CCS announced the launch of the California CCS Coalition.

Plans for the coalition began after a study published last fall confirmed California was not likely to attain its long-term target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions without investment in new, more efficient and lower-carbon infrastructure, including the use of CCS.

"The study confirmed what many of us already knew — that CCS is a viable solution in reducing greenhouse gas emissions," according to the coalition's newly appointed Executive Director Pete Montgomery. "But it also raised some flags in terms of where we go from here," he adds, noting legislative, regulatory and general public awareness lag behind what may be required to ensure successful CCS implementation.

The study, "Meeting California's Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals" by San Francisco-based Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), is the first comprehensive look at the steps necessary to cut statewide greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050.

It looks out 40 years and concludes that achieving long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals will require moving towards increased electrification, low-carbon power generation, and zero-emissions technologies. To reach emission reduction targets, the report stresses a mix of low-carbon power generation utilizing CCS, as well as wind, solar, biomass and nuclear.

"Without all of these emission reduction measures," the study states, "it will be extremely difficult to reduce statewide emissions to the range of 85 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050."

If the electricity sector must move toward a low carbon future, by 2050, "almost all of the stateÂ’s fleet of fossil-fuel based power plants must be replaced by some combination of renewable energy, nuclear power and power generation with carbon capture and storage."

The report adds, “Conventional power plants built today may risk early retirement before the end of their useful life or will need to be retrofit with CCS if California is to meet its long-term greenhouse gas reduction goal.”

CCS is the process by which carbon dioxide, or CO2, the most common greenhouse gas, is separated from hydrocarbons in fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas, or petroleum coke, and then stored in deep underground formations. Among the best geologic formations in which to store CO2 are in sufficiently depleted oil and gas reservoirs.

The coalition was created to ensure CCS is an important part of any state carbon stabilization program with the goal being "to bring voices to the table throughout the state to demonstrate that CCS is practical, effective and safe," Montgomery adds.

The non-profit organization's mission is to represent the interests of CCS stakeholders in the legislative and regulatory arena and to educate key constituencies and organizations about facts regarding CCS. This includes increasing awareness of the history and safety of the technology, the realities surrounding geological storage and the critical importance of CCS to a comprehensive strategy of reducing emissions of carbon into the atmosphere.

The coalition will strive to increase awareness of CCS and to inform policy makers and the general public of CCS; encourage the deployment of CCS and incentives for low carbon power production; establish definitions for "low-carbon power;" encourage low-carbon power purchases by electric utilities, and more.

California CCS Coalition members to date include: Aera Energy, Chevron, Clean Energy Systems, Hydrogen Energy California, Sempra Energy Utilities, Southern California Edison, Shell and Western States Petroleum Association. The group hopes to attract other members, as well.

Hydrogen Energy California, which provided funding for the E3 study, is seeking to build California's first industrial scale hydrogen-fired power plant with CCS. Proposed for western Kern County, it will produce low-carbon power while safely capturing and storing 90% of its carbon dioxide emissions.

According to Jonathan Briggs, director of Americas for Hydrogen Energy California, "California's regulatory and legislative climate should further encourage the development of new energy technology. In particular, creating incentives for investment not just in renewable energy technology, but also for low-carbon base load power generation, like the Hydrogen Energy California project. The work of the coalition will be important in seeing this become a reality."

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PG&E says power lines may have started 2 California fires

PG&E Wildfire Blackouts highlight California power shutoffs as high winds and suspected transmission line faults trigger evacuations, CPUC investigations, and grid safety reviews, with utilities weighing risk, compliance, and resilience during Santa Ana conditions.

 

Key Points

PG&E Wildfire Blackouts are outages during wind-driven fire threats linked to power lines, spurring CPUC investigations.

✅ Wind and line faults suspected amid Lafayette evacuations

✅ CPUC to probe shutoffs, notifications, and compliance

✅ Utilities plan more outages as Santa Ana winds return

 

Pacific Gas & Electric Co. power lines may have started two wildfires over the weekend in the San Francisco Bay Area, the utility said Monday, even though widespread blackouts were in place to prevent downed lines from starting fires during dangerously windy weather.

The fires described in PG&E reports to state regulators match blazes that destroyed a tennis club and forced evacuations in Lafayette, about 20 miles (32 kilometres) east of San Francisco.

The fires began in a section of town where PG&E had opted to keep the lights on. The sites were not designated as a high fire risk, the company said.

Powerful winds were driving multiple fires across California and forcing power shut-offs intended to prevent blazes, even as electricity prices are soaring across the state as well.

More than 900,000 power customers -- an estimated 2.5 million people -- were in the dark at the height of the latest planned blackout, nearly all of them in PG&E's territory in Northern and central California. By Monday evening a little less than half of those had their service back. But some 1.5 million people in 29 counties will be hit with more shut-offs starting Tuesday because another round of strong winds is expected, a reminder of grid stress during heat waves that test capacity, the utility said.

Southern California Edison had cut off power to 25,000 customers and warned that it was considering disconnecting about 350,000 more as power supply lapses and Santa Ana winds return midweek.

PG&E is under severe financial pressure after its equipment was blamed for a series of destructive wildfires and its 2018 Camp Fire guilty plea compounded liabilities during the past three years. Its stock dropped 24% Monday to close at $3.80 and was down more than 50% since Thursday.

The company reported last week that a transmission tower may have caused a Sonoma County fire that has forced 156,000 people to evacuate.

PG&E told the California Public Utilities Commission that a worker responded to a fire in Lafayette late Sunday afternoon and was told firefighters believed contact between a power line and a communication line may have caused it.

A worker went to another fire about an hour later and saw a fallen pole and transformer. Contra Costa Fire Department personnel on site told the worker they were looking at the transformer as a potential ignition source, a company official wrote.

Separately, the company told regulators that it had failed to notify 23,000 customers, including 500 with medical conditions, before shutting off their power earlier this month during windy weather.

Before a planned blackout, power companies are required to notify customers and take extra care to get in touch with those with medical problems who may not be able to handle extended periods without air conditioning or may need power to run medical devices.

PG&E said some customers had no contact information on file. Others were incorrectly thought to be getting electricity.

After that outage, workers discovered 43 cases of wind-related damage to power lines, transformers and other equipment.

Jennifer Robison, a PG&E spokeswoman, said the company is working with independent living centres to determine how best to serve people with disabilities.

The company faced a growing backlash from regulators and lawmakers, and a judge's order on wildfire risk spending added pressure as well.

U.S. Rep. Josh Harder, a Democrat from Modesto, said he plans to introduce legislation that would raise PG&E's taxes if it pays bonuses to executives while engaging in blackouts.

The Public Utilities Commission plans to open a formal investigation into the blackouts and the broader climate policy debate surrounding reliability within the next month, allowing regulators to gather evidence and question utility officials. If rules are found to be broken, they can impose fines up to $100,000 per violation per day, said Terrie Prosper, a spokeswoman for the commission.

The commission said Monday it also plans to review the rules governing blackouts, will look to prevent utilities from charging customers when the power is off and will convene experts to find grid improvements that might lessen blackouts during next year's fire season, as debates over rate stability in 2025 continue across PG&E's service area.

The state can't continue experiencing such widespread blackouts, "nor should Californians be subject to the poor execution that PG&E in particular has exhibited," Marybel Batjer, president of the California Public Utilities Commission, said in a statement.

 

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NL Consumer Advocate says 18% electricity rate hike 'unacceptable'

Newfoundland and Labrador electricity rate hike examines a proposed 18.6% increase under the PUB's Rate Stabilization Plan, driven by oil prices at Holyrood, with Consumer Advocate concerns over rate shock and use of RSP balances.

 

Key Points

A proposed 18.6% July 2017 increase under the RSP, driven by oil prices, now under PUB review for potential mitigation.

✅ PUB flags potential rate shock from proposed adjustment

✅ RSP balances cited to offset increases without depleting fund

✅ Oil-fired Holyrood volatility drives fuel cost uncertainty

 

How much of a rate hike is reasonable for users of electricity in Newfoundland and Labrador?

That's a question before the Public Utilities Board (PUB) as it examines an application by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, which could see consumers pay up to 18.6 per cent more as of July 1, reflecting regional pressures seen in Nova Scotia, where regulators approved a 14% rate hike earlier this year.

"The estimated rate increase for July 2017 is such a significant increase that it may be argued that it would cause rate shock," said the PUB, asking the company to revise its application.

NL Hydro said the price adjustment is part of what happens every year through the Rate Stabilization Plan (RSP), which is used to offset the ups and downs of oil prices.

"The cost of fuel is volatile and as long as we rely on oil-fired generation at Holyrood, customers will continue to be impacted by this electricity price uncertainty," said the company in a statement to CBC News.

It noted that customers received a break from RSP adjustments in 2015 and 2016, even as costs from the Muskrat Falls project begin to be reflected.

The PUB noted that under the rate stabilization plan, prices have gone up or down by about 10 per cent in the past.

The regulatory board said the impact of the latest request would be a 27.6 per cent hike to Newfoundland Power, with "an estimated average end customer impact of 18.6 per cent."

Hydro's estimates are based on an average price for oil of $81.40 per barrel from July 2017 to June 2018, according to the PUB.

 

'Unacceptable' burden: Consumer Advocate

"To burden ratepayers with an 18 per cent rate increase is unacceptable," said Consumer Advocate Dennis Browne, echoing pushback in Nova Scotia, where the premier urged regulators to reject a 14% hike at the time.

Browne is arguing that there is money in the RSP to reduce the proposed increase, including the possibility of a lump-sum bill credit for customers.

"These ratepayer balances — which, according to NL Power, totals $77.4 million — are not the property of Hydro," he wrote in a letter to the PUB.

"No utility has the right to squirrel away ratepayers' money to be used by that utility for some future purpose. The Board has jurisdiction over those balances," Browne said.

Browne also wants the RSP overhauled so that it can be applied to price fluctuations every quarter, as opposed to annually.

Hydro has expressed concern that depleting the rate stabilization fund would lead to other, more significant, rate increases in the future.

It said several alternatives to mitigate high rates have been provided to the PUB, which has final say, similar to how Manitoba Hydro scaled back a planned increase in the next year.

 

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Europe Stores Electricity in Natural Gas Pipes

Power-to-gas converts surplus renewable electricity into green hydrogen or synthetic methane via electrolysis and methanation, enabling seasonal energy storage, grid balancing, hydrogen injection into gas pipelines, and decarbonization of heat, transport, and industry.

 

Key Points

Power-to-gas turns excess renewable power into hydrogen or methane for storage, grid support, and clean fuel.

✅ Enables hydrogen injection into existing natural gas networks

✅ Balances grids and provides seasonal energy storage capacity

✅ Supplies low-carbon fuels for industry, heat, and heavy transport

 

Last month Denmark’s biggest energy firm, Ørsted, said wind farms it is proposing for the North Sea will convert some of their excess power into gas. Electricity flowing in from offshore will feed on-shore electrolysis plants that split water to produce clean-burning hydrogen, with oxygen as a by-product. That would supply a new set of customers who need energy, but not as electricity. And it would take some strain off of Europe’s power grid as it grapples with an ever-increasing share of hard-to-handle EU wind and solar output on the grid.

Turning clean electricity into energetic gases such as hydrogen or methane is an old idea that is making a comeback as renewable power generation surges and crowds out gas in Europe. That is because gases can be stockpiled within the natural gas distribution system to cover times of weak winds and sunlight. They can also provide concentrated energy to replace fossil fuels for vehicles and industries. Although many U.S. energy experts argue that this “power-to-gas” vision may be prohibitively expensive, some of Europe’s biggest industrial firms are buying in to the idea.

European power equipment manufacturers, anticipating a wave of renewable hydrogen projects such as Ørsted’s, vowed in January that, as countries push for hydrogen-ready power plants across Europe, all of their gas-fired turbines will be certified by next year to run on up to 20 percent hydrogen, which burns faster than methane-rich natural gas. The natural gas distributors, meanwhile, have said they will use hydrogen to help them fully de-carbonize Europe’s gas supplies by 2050.

Converting power to gas is picking up steam in Europe because the region has more consistent and aggressive climate policies and evolving electricity pricing frameworks that support integration. Most U.S. states have goals to clean up some fraction of their electricity supply; coal- and gas-fired plants contribute a little more than a quarter of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, European countries are counting on carbon reductions of 80 percent or more by midcentury—reductions that will require an economywide switch to low-carbon energy.

Cleaning up energy by stripping the carbon out of fossil fuels is costly. So is building massive new grid infrastructure, including transmission lines and huge batteries, amid persistent grid expansion woes in parts of Europe. Power-to-gas may be the cheapest way forward, complementing Germany’s net-zero roadmap to cut electricity costs by a third. “In order to reach the targets for climate protection, we need even more renewable energy. Green hydrogen is perceived as one of the most promising ways to make the energy transition happen,” says Armin Schnettler, head of energy and electronics research at Munich-based electric equipment giant Siemens.

Europe already has more than 45 demonstration projects to improve power-to-gas technologies and their integration with power grids and gas networks. The principal focus has been to make the electrolyzers that convert electricity to hydrogen more efficient, longer-lasting and cheaper to produce.

The projects are also scaling up the various technologies. Early installations converted a few hundred kilowatts of electricity, but manufacturers such as Siemens are now building equipment that can convert 10 megawatts, which would yield enough hydrogen each year to heat around 3,000 homes or fuel 100 buses, according to financial consultancy Ernst & Young.

The improvements have been most dramatic for proton-exchange membrane electrolyzers, which are akin to the fuel cells used in hydrogen vehicles (but optimized to produce hydrogen rather than consume it). The price of proton-exchange electrolyzers has dropped by roughly 40 percent during the past decade, according to a study published in February in Nature Energy. They are also five times more compact than older alkaline electrolysis plants, enabling onsite hydrogen production near gas consumers, and they can vary their power consumption within seconds to operate on fluctuating wind and solar generation.

Many European pilot projects are demonstrating “methanation” equipment that converts hydrogen to methane, too, which can be used as a drop-in replacement for natural gas. Europe’s electrolyzer plants, however, are showing that methanation is not as critical to the power-to-gas vision as advocates long believed. Many electrolyzers are injecting their hydrogen directly into natural gas pipelines—something that U.S. gas firms forbid—and they are doing so without impacting either the gas infrastructure or natural gas consumers.

Europe’s first large-scale hydrogen injection began in eastern Germany in 2013 at a two-megawatt electrolyzer installed by Essen-based power firm E.ON. Germany has since ratcheted up the amount of hydrogen it allows in natural gas lines from an initial 2 percent by volume to 10 percent, in a market where renewables now outpace coal and nuclear in Germany, and other European states have followed suit with their own hydrogen allowances. Christopher Hebling, head of hydrogen technologies at the Freiburg-based Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, predicts that such limits will rise to the 20-percent level anticipated by Europe’s turbine manufacturers.

Moving renewable hydrogen and methane via natural gas pipelines promises to cut the cost of switching to renewable energy. For example, gas networks have storage caverns whose reserves could be tapped to run gas-fired electric generation power plants during periods of low wind and solar output. Hebling notes that Germany’s gas network can store 240 terawatt-hours of energy—roughly 25 times more energy than global power grids can presently store by pumping water uphill to refill hydropower reservoirs. Repurposing gas infrastructure to help the power system could save European consumers 138 billion euros ($156 billion) by 2050, according to Dutch energy consultancy Navigant (formerly Ecofys).

For all the pilot plants and promise, renewable hydrogen presently supplies a tiny fraction of Europe’s gas. And, globally, around 4 percent of hydrogen is supplied via electrolysis, with the bulk refined from fossil fuels, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

Power-to-gas is catching up, however. According to the February Nature Energy study, renewable hydrogen already pays for itself in some niche applications, and further electrolyzer improvements will progressively extend its market. “If costs continue to decline as they have done in recent years, power-to-gas will become competitive at large scale within the next decade,” says study co-author Gunther Glenk, an economist at the Technical University of Munich.

Glenk says power-to-gas could scale up faster if governments guaranteed premium prices for renewable hydrogen and methane, as they did to mainstream solar and wind power.

Tim Calver, an energy storage researcher turned consultant and Ernst & Young’s executive director in London, agrees that European governments need to step up their support for power-to-gas projects and markets. Calver calls the scale of funding to date, “not proportionate to the challenge that we face on long-term decarbonization and the potential role of hydrogen.”

 

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California Utility Cuts Power to Massive Areas in Northern, Central California

PG&E Public Safety Power Shutoff curbs wildfire risk amid high winds, triggering California outages across Northern California and Bay Area counties; grid safety measures, outage maps, campus closures, and restoration timelines guide residents and businesses.

 

Key Points

A preemptive outage program by PG&E to reduce wildfire ignition during extreme wind events in California.

✅ Cuts power during red flag, high wind, dry fuel conditions

✅ Targets Northern California, Bay Area counties at highest risk

✅ Restoration follows inspections, weather all-clear, hazard checks

 

California utility Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PG&E) has cut off power supply to hundreds of thousands of residents in Northern and Central California as a precaution to possible breakout of wildfires, a move examined in reasons for shutdowns by industry observers.

PG&E confirmed that about 513,000 customers in many counties in Northern California, including Napa, Sierra, Sonoma and Yuba, were affected in the first phase of Public Safety Power Shutoff, a preemptive measure it took to prevent wildfires believed likely to be triggered by strong, dry winds.

The utility said the decision to shut off power was, amid ongoing debate over nuclear's status in California, "based on forecasts of dry, hot and windy weather including potential fire risk."

"This weather event will last through midday Thursday, with peak winds forecast from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning and reaching 60 mph (about 96 km per hour) to 70 mph (about 112 km per hour) at higher elevations," it said, while abroad National Grid warnings about short supply have highlighted parallel reliability concerns.

PG&E noted that about 234,000 residents in mostly counties of San Francisco Bay Area such as Alameda, Alpine, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara were impacted in the second phase of the power shutoff, as the state considers power plant closure delays with potential grid impacts, that began around noon in Wednesday.

The unprecedented power outages sweeping across Northern California has darkened homes and forced schools and business to close, even as the UK paused an emergency energy plan amid its own supply concerns.

University of California, Berkeley canceled all classes for Wednesday due to expected campus power loss over the next few days.

The university said it has received notice from PG&E, as China's power woes cloud U.S. solar supplies that could aid resilience, that "most of the core campus will be without power" possibly for 48 hours.

A freshman at California State University San Jose told Xinhua that their classes were canceled Wednesday as the campus was running out of power.

"I had to go home because even our dormitory went without electricity," the student added.

However, PG&E noted in an updated statement Wednesday night that only 4,000 customers would be affected in the third phase being considered for Kern County in Central California, compared to an earlier forecast of 43,000 people who would experience power outage.

The PG&E power shutoff was the largest preemptive measure ever taken to prevent wildfires in the state's history, and it comes as clean power grows while fossil declines across California's grid, highlighting broader transition challenges.

The San Francisco-based California utility was held responsible for poor management of its power lines that sparked fatal wildfires in Northern California and killed 86 people last year in what was called Camp Fire, the single-deadliest wildfire in California's history.

Several lawsuits and other requests for compensation from wildfire victims that amounted to billions of U.S. dollars forced the embattled the company to claim bankruptcy protection early this year.

 

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Alberta's Path to Clean Electricity

Alberta Clean Electricity Regulations face federal mandates and provincial autonomy, balancing greenhouse gas cuts, net-zero 2050 goals, and renewable energy adoption across wind, solar, and hydro, while protecting jobs and economic stability in energy communities.

 

Key Points

Rules to cut power emissions, boost renewables, and align Alberta with federal net-zero goals under federal mandates.

✅ Phases out coal and curbs greenhouse gas emissions

✅ Expands wind, solar, and hydro to diversify the grid

✅ Balances provincial autonomy with national climate targets

 

In a recent development, Alberta finds itself at a crossroads between provincial autonomy and federal mandates concerning federal clean electricity regulations that shape long-term planning. The province, known for its significant oil and gas industry, faces increasing pressure to align its energy policies with federal climate goals set by Ottawa.

The federal government, under the leadership of Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, has proposed regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning towards a cleaner energy future that prioritizes clean grids and batteries across provinces. These regulations are part of Canada's broader commitment to combat climate change and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

The Federal Perspective

From Ottawa's standpoint, stringent regulations on Alberta's electricity sector are necessary to meet national climate targets. This includes measures to phase out coal-fired power plants and increase reliance on renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. Minister Guilbeault emphasizes the importance of these regulations in mitigating Canada's carbon footprint and fostering sustainable development.

Alberta's Response

In contrast, Alberta has historically championed provincial autonomy in energy policy, leveraging its vast fossil fuel resources to drive economic growth. The province remains cautious about federal interventions that could potentially disrupt its energy sector, a cornerstone of its economy, especially amid changes to how electricity is produced and paid for now under discussion.

Premier Jason Kenney has expressed concerns over federal overreach, and his influence over electricity policy has shaped proposals in the legislature. He emphasizes the province's efforts in adopting cleaner technologies while balancing economic stability and environmental sustainability.

The Balancing Act

The challenge lies in finding a middle ground between federal imperatives and provincial priorities, as interprovincial disputes like B.C.'s export-restriction challenge complicate coordination. Alberta acknowledges the need to diversify its energy portfolio and reduce emissions but insists on preserving its jurisdiction over energy policy. The province has already made strides in renewable energy development, including investing in wind and solar projects alongside traditional energy sources.

Economic Implications

For Alberta, the transition to cleaner electricity carries significant economic implications as the electricity market heads for a reshuffle in the coming years. It entails navigating the complexities of energy transition, ensuring job retention, and fostering innovation in sustainable technologies. Critics argue that abrupt federal regulations could exacerbate economic hardships, particularly in communities reliant on the fossil fuel industry.

Moving Forward

As discussions continue between Alberta and Ottawa, finding common ground, including consideration of recent market change proposals from the province, remains essential. Collaborative efforts are necessary to develop tailored solutions that accommodate both environmental responsibilities and economic realities. This includes exploring incentives for renewable energy investment, supporting energy sector workers in transitioning to new industries, and leveraging Alberta's expertise in energy innovation.

Conclusion

Alberta's journey towards clean electricity regulation exemplifies the delicate balance between regional autonomy and federal oversight in Canada's complex federal system. While tensions persist between provincial and federal priorities, both levels of government share a common commitment to addressing climate change and advancing sustainable energy solutions.

The outcome of these negotiations will not only shape Alberta's energy landscape but also influence Canada's overall progress towards a greener future. Finding equitable solutions that respect provincial autonomy while achieving national environmental goals remains paramount in navigating this evolving policy landscape.

 

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Is nuclear power really in decline?

Nuclear Energy Growth accelerates as nations pursue decarbonization, complement renewables, displace coal, and ensure grid reliability with firm, low-carbon baseload, benefiting from standardized builds, lower cost of capital, and learning-curve cost reductions.

 

Key Points

Expansion of nuclear capacity to cut CO2, complement renewables, replace coal, and stabilize grids at low-carbon cost.

✅ Complements renewables; displaces coal for faster decarbonization

✅ Cuts system costs via standardization and lower cost of capital

✅ Provides firm, low-carbon baseload and grid reliability

 

By Kirill Komarov, Chairman, World Nuclear Association.

As Europe and the wider world begins to wake up to the need to cut emissions, Dr Kirill Komarov argues that tackling climate change will see the use of nuclear energy grow in the coming years, not as a competitor to renewables but as a competitor to coal.

The nuclear industry keeps making headlines and spurring debates on energy policy, including the green industrial revolution agenda in several countries. With each new build project, the detractors of nuclear power crowd the bandwagon to portray renewables as an easy and cheap alternative to ‘increasingly costly’ nuclear: if solar and wind are virtually free why bother splitting atoms?

Yet, paradoxically as it may seem, if we are serious about policy response to climate change, nuclear energy is seeing an atomic energy resurgence in the coming decade or two.

Growth has already started to pick up with about 3.1 GW new capacity added in the first half of 2018 in Russia and China while, at the very least, 4GW more to be completed by the end of the year – more than doubling the capacity additions in 2017.

In 2019 new connections to the grid would exceed 10GW by a significant margin.

If nuclear is in decline, why then do China, India, Russia and other countries keep building nuclear power plants?

To begin with, the issue of cost, argued by those opposed to nuclear, is in fact largely a bogus one, which does not make a fully rounded like for like comparison.

It is true that the latest generation reactors, especially those under construction in the US and Western Europe, have encountered significant construction delays and cost overruns.

But the main, and often the only, reason for that is the ‘first-of-a-kind’ nature of those projects.

If you build something for the first time, be it nuclear, wind or solar, it is expensive. Experience shows that with series build, standardised construction economies of scale and the learning curve from multiple projects, costs come down by around one-third; and this is exactly what is already happening in some parts of the world.

Furthermore, those first-of-a-kind projects were forced to be financed 100% privately and investors had to bear all political risks. It sent the cost of capital soaring, increasing at one stroke the final electricity price by about one third.

While, according to the International Energy Agency, at 3% cost of capital rate, nuclear is the cheapest source of energy: on average 1% increase adds about US$6-7 per MWh to the final price.

When it comes to solar and wind, the truth, inconvenient for those cherishing the fantasy of a world relying 100% on renewables, is that the ‘plummeting prices’ (which, by the way, haven’t changed much over the last three years, reaching a plateau) do not factor in so-called system and balancing costs associated with the need to smooth the intermittency of renewables.

Put simply, the fact the sun doesn’t shine at night and wind doesn’t blow all the time means wind and solar generation needs to be backed up.

According to a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, integration of intermittent renewables into the grid is estimated in some cases to be as expensive as power generation itself.

Delivering the highest possible renewable content means customers’ bills will have to cover: renewable generation costs, energy storage solutions, major grid updates and interconnections investment, as well as gas or coal peaking power plants or ‘peakers’, which work only from time to time when needed to back up wind and solar.

The expected cost for kWh for peakers, according to investment bank Lazard is about twice that of conventional power plants due to much lower capacity factors.

Despite exceptionally low fossil fuel prices, peaking natural gas generation had an eye-watering cost of $156-210 per MWh in 2017 while electricity storage, replacing ‘peakers’, would imply an extra cost of $186-413 per MWh.

Burning fossil fuels is cheaper but comes with a great deal of environmental concern and extensive use of coal would make net-zero emissions targets all but unattainable.

So, contrary to some claims, nuclear does not compete with renewables. Moreover, a recent study by the MIT Energy Initiative showed, most convincingly, that renewables and load following advanced nuclear are complementary.

Nuclear competes with coal. Phasing out coal is crucial to fighting climate change. Putting off decisions to build new nuclear capacities while increasing the share of intermittent renewables makes coal indispensable and extends its life.

Scientists at the Brattle group, a consultancy, argue that “since CO2 emissions persist for many years in the atmosphere, near-term emission reductions are more helpful for climate protection than later ones”.

The longer we hesitate with new nuclear build the more difficult it becomes to save the Earth.

Nuclear power accounta for about one-tenth of global electricity production, but as much as one-third of generation from low-carbon sources. 1GWe of installed nuclear capacity prevents emissions of 4-7 million metric tons of CO2 emissions per year, depending on the region.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in order to limit the average global temperature increase to 2°C and still meet global power demand, we need to connect to the grid at least 20GW of new nuclear energy each year.

The World Nuclear Association (WNA) sets the target even higher with the total of 1,000 GWe by 2050, or about 10 GWe per year before 2020; 25 GWe per year from 2021 to 2025; and on average 33 GWe from 2026 to 2050.

Regulatory and political challenges in the West have made life for nuclear businesses in the US and in Europe's nuclear sector very difficult, driving many of them to the edge of insolvency; but in the rest of the world nuclear energy is thriving.

Nuclear vendors and utilities post healthy profits and invest heavily in next-gen nuclear innovation and expansion. The BRICS countries are leading the way, taking over the initiative in the global climate agenda. From their perspective, it’s the opposite of decline.

Dr Kirill Komarov is first deputy CEO of Russian state nuclear energy operator Rosatom and chairman of the World Nuclear Association.

 

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