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COVID-19 Impact on Global Oil Demand 2020 signals an IEA forecast of declining consumption as travel restrictions curb transport fuels, disrupt energy markets, and shift OPEC and non-OPEC supply dynamics amid economic slowdown.

Key Points

IEA sees first demand drop since 2009 as COVID-19 curbs travel, weakening transport fuels and unsettling energy markets.

✅ IEA base case: 2020 demand at 99.9 mb/d, down 90 kb/d from 2019.

✅ Travel restrictions hit transport fuels; China drives the decline.

✅ Scenarios: low -730 kb/d; high +480 kb/d in 2020.

Global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020 as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads around the world, constricting travel and broader economic activity, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest oil market forecast.

The situation remains fluid, creating an extraordinary degree of uncertainty over what the full global impact of the virus will be. In the IEA’s central base case, even as global CO2 emissions flatlined in 2019 according to the IEA, demand this year drops for the first time since 2009 because of the deep contraction in oil consumption in China, and major disruptions to global travel and trade.

“The coronavirus crisis is affecting a wide range of energy markets – including coal-fired electricity generation, gas and renewables – but its impact on oil markets is particularly severe because it is stopping people and goods from moving around, dealing a heavy blow to demand for transport fuels,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “This is especially true in China, the largest energy consumer in the world, which accounted for more than 80% of global oil demand growth last year. While the repercussions of the virus are spreading to other parts of the world, what happens in China will have major implications for global energy and oil markets.”

The IEA now sees global oil demand at 99.9 million barrels a day in 2020, down around 90,000 barrels a day from 2019. This is a sharp downgrade from the IEA’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand would grow by 825,000 barrels a day in 2020.

The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity.

To account for the extreme uncertainty facing energy markets, the IEA has developed two other scenarios for how global oil demand could evolve this year. In a more pessimistic low case, global measures fail to contain the virus, and global demand falls by 730,000 barrels a day in 2020. In a more optimistic high case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand grows by 480,000 barrels a day.

“We are following the situation extremely closely and will provide regular updates to our forecasts as the picture becomes clearer,” Dr Birol said. “The impact of the coronavirus on oil markets may be temporary. But the longer-term challenges facing the world’s suppliers are not going to go away, especially those heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues. As the IEA has repeatedly said, these producer countries need more dynamic and diversified economies in order to navigate the multiple uncertainties that we see today.”

The IEA also published its medium-term outlook examining the key issues in global demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025, as well as the trajectory of the global energy transition now shaping markets. Following a contraction in 2020 and an expected sharp rebound in 2021, yearly growth in global oil demand is set to slow as consumption of transport fuels grows more slowly and as national net-zero pathways, with Canada needing more electricity to reach net-zero influencing power demand, according to the report. Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of just below 1 million barrels a day. Over the period as whole, demand rises by a total of 5.7 million barrels a day, with China and India accounting for about half of the growth.

At the same time, the world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 million barrels a day, with more than three-quarters of it coming from non-OPEC producers, the report forecasts. But production growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries is set to lose momentum after 2022, amid shifts in Wall Street's energy strategy linked to policy signals, allowing OPEC producers from the Middle East to turn the taps back up to help keep the global oil market in balance.

The medium-term market report, Oil 2020, also considers the impact of clean energy transitions on oil market trends. Demand growth for gasoline and diesel between 2019 and 2025 is forecast to weaken as countries around the world implement policies to improve efficiency and cut carbon dioxide emissions – and as solar power becomes the cheapest electricity in many markets and electric vehicles increase in popularity. The impact of energy transitions on oil supply remains unclear, with many companies prioritising short-cycle projects for the coming years.

“The coronavirus crisis is adding to the uncertainties the global oil industry faces as it contemplates new investments and business strategies,” Dr Birol said. “The pressures on companies are changing, with European oil majors turning electric to diversify. They need to show that they can deliver not just the energy that economies rely on, but also the emissions reductions that the world needs to help tackle our climate challenge.”

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Bitcoin energy consumption is driven by mining electricity demand, with TWh-scale power use, carbon footprint concerns, and Cambridge estimates. Rising prices incentivize more hardware; efficiency gains and renewables adoption shape sustainability outcomes.

Key Points

Bitcoin energy consumption is mining's electricity use, driven by price, device efficiency, and energy mix.

✅ Cambridge tool estimates ~121 TWh annual usage

✅ Rising BTC price incentivizes more mining hardware

✅ Efficiency, renewables, and costs shape footprint

"Mining" for the cryptocurrency is power-hungry, with power curtailments reported during heat waves, involving heavy computer calculations to verify transactions.

Cambridge researchers say it consumes around 121.36 terawatt-hours (TWh) a year - and is unlikely to fall unless the value of the currency slumps, even as Americans use less electricity overall.

Critics say electric-car firm Tesla's decision to invest heavily in Bitcoin undermines its environmental image.

The currency's value hit a record $48,000 (£34,820) this week. following Tesla's announcement that it had bought about $1.5bn bitcoin and planned to accept it as payment in future.

But the rising price offers even more incentive to Bitcoin miners to run more and more machines.

And as the price increases, so does the energy consumption, according to Michel Rauchs, researcher at The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, who co-created the online tool that generates these estimates.

“It is really by design that Bitcoin consumes that much electricity,” Mr Rauchs told BBC’s Tech Tent podcast. “This is not something that will change in the future unless the Bitcoin price is going to significantly go down."

The online tool has ranked Bitcoin’s electricity consumption above Argentina (121 TWh), the Netherlands (108.8 TWh) and the United Arab Emirates (113.20 TWh) - and it is gradually creeping up on Norway (122.20 TWh).

The energy it uses could power all kettles used in the UK, where low-carbon generation stalled in 2019, for 27 years, it said.

However, it also suggests the amount of electricity consumed every year by always-on but inactive home devices in the US alone could power the entire Bitcoin network for a year, and in Canada, B.C. power imports have helped meet demand.

Mining Bitcoin
In order to "mine" Bitcoin, computers - often specialised ones - are connected to the cryptocurrency network.

They have the job of verifying transactions made by people who send or receive Bitcoin.

This process involves solving puzzles, which, while not integral to verifying movements of the currency, provide a hurdle to ensure no-one fraudulently edits the global record of all transactions.

As a reward, miners occasionally receive small amounts of Bitcoin in what is often likened to a lottery.

To increase profits, people often connect large numbers of miners to the network - even entire warehouses full of them, as seen with a Medicine Hat bitcoin operation backed by an electricity deal.

That uses lots of electricity because the computers are more or less constantly working to complete the puzzles, prompting some utilities to consider pauses on new crypto loads in certain regions.

The University of Cambridge tool models the economic lifetime of the world's Bitcoin miners and assumes that all the Bitcoin mining machines worldwide are working with various efficiencies.

Using an average electricity price per kilowatt hour ($0.05) and the energy demands of the Bitcoin network, it is then possible to estimate how much electricity is being consumed at any one time, though in places like China's power sector data can be opaque.
 

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PLREDA 2019 advances solar, wind, and geothermal on public lands, guiding DOI siting, improving transmission access, streamlining permitting, sharing revenues, and funding conservation to meet climate goals while protecting wildlife and recreation.

Key Points

A bipartisan bill to expand renewables on public lands fund conservation, speed permitting and advance U.S. climate aims.

✅ Targets 25 GW of public-land renewables by 2025

✅ Establishes wildlife conservation and recreation access funds

✅ Streamlines siting, transmission, and equitable revenue sharing

The Senate unveiled its version of a bill the House introduced in July to help the U.S. realize the extraordinary renewable energy potential of our shared public lands.

Senator Martha McSally (R-AZ) and a bipartisan coalition of western Senators introduced a Senate version of draft legislation that will help the Department of the Interior tap the renewable energy potential of our shared public lands. The western Senators represent Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Montana, and Idaho.

Elsewhere in the West, lawmakers have moved to modernize Oregon hydropower to streamline licensing, signaling broad regional momentum.

The Public Land Renewable Energy Development Act of 2019 (PLREDA) facilitates siting of solar, wind, and geothermal energy projects on public lands, boosts funding for conservation, and promotes ambitious renewable energy targets that will help the U.S. take action on the climate crisis.

Like the House version, the Senate bill enjoys strong bi-partisan support and industry endorsement. The Senate version makes few notable changes to the bill introduced in July by Representatives Mike Levin (D-CA) and Paul Gosar (R-AZ). It includes:

• A commitment to enhance natural resource conservation and stewardship via the establishment of a fish and wildlife conservation fund that would support conservation and restoration work and other important stewardship activities.
• An ambitious renewable energy production goal for the Department of the Interior to permit a total of 25 gigawatts of renewable energy on public lands by 2025—nearly double the current generating capacity of projects currently on our public lands.
• Establishment of criteria for identifying appropriate areas for renewable energy development using the 2012 Western Solar Plan as a model. Key criteria to be considered include access to transmission lines and likelihood of avoiding or minimizing conflict with wildlife habitat, cultural resources, and other resources and values.
• Improved public access to Federal lands for recreational uses via funds made available for preserving and improving access, including enhancing public access to places that are currently inaccessible or restricted.
• Sharing of revenues raised from renewable energy development on public lands in an equitable manner that benefits local communities near new renewable energy projects and supports the efficient administration of permitting requirements.
• Creating incentives for renewable energy development by giving Interior the authority to reduce rental rates and capacity fees to ensure new renewable energy development remains competitive in the marketplace.

NRDC strongly supports this legislation, and we will do our utmost to facilitate its passage into law. There is no question that in our era of runaway climate change, legislation that balances energy production with environmental conservation and stewardship of our public lands is critical.

PLREDA takes a balanced approach to using our public lands to help lead the U.S. toward a low-carbon future, as states pursue 100% renewable electricity goals nationwide. The bill outlines a commonsense approach for federal agencies to play a meaningful role in combatting climate change.

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Toronto Hydro Scam Warning urges customers to spot phishing emails, fraudulent texts, fake bills, and door-to-door threats demanding bitcoin or prepaid cards, with disconnection threats; report scams to the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre.

Key Points

Advisory on phishing, fake bills, and payment scams posing as Toronto Hydro, with steps to avoid fraud and report.

✅ Hang up suspicious calls; never pay via bitcoin or prepaid cards.

✅ Do not click links in emails or texts; compare bills and account numbers.

✅ Report fraud to the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre: 1-888-495-8501.

Toronto Hydro has sent out a notice that criminals posing as Toronto Hydro are sending out fraudulent texts, letters and emails, similar to a recent BC Hydro scam reported in British Columbia.

The warning comes in a tweet, along with suggestions on how to protect yourself from fraud, especially as policy debates like an NDP public hydro plan can generate confusing messages.

According to Toronto Hydro, fraudsters are contacting people by phone, text, email, fake electricity bills, and even travelling door-to-door.

They threaten to disconnect the power unless an immediate payment is made, even though legitimate utilities must follow proper disconnection notices processes. The website states that in some cases, criminals request payment via pre-paid credit card or bitcoin.

It’s written on the website that Toronto Hydro does not accept these methods of payment, and they do not threaten to immediately disconnect power, a reminder that stories about power theft abroad are not a model for local billing.

If you suspect you are being targeted, you should immediately hang up any suspicious phone calls. Don’t click on any links in emails or texts asking you to accept electronic transfers, as scammers may impersonate well-known utilities during high-profile news such as Hydro One profit changes to appear credible.

Avoid sharing any personal information over the phone or in-person, and do not make any payments related to Smart Meter Deposits, as this fee does not exist and rate-setting is overseen by the Ontario Energy Board in Ontario.

And remember to always compare bills to previous ones, including the amount and account number, since major accounting decisions like a BC Hydro deferral report can fuel confusing narratives.

To report fraudulent activity, please contact:
Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre at 1-888-495-8501; quote file number 844396

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BCER Renewable Energy Permitting streamlines single-window approvals for wind, solar, and transmission projects in BC, cutting red tape, aligning with CleanBC, and accelerating investment, Indigenous partnerships, and low-carbon infrastructure growth provincewide.

Key Points

BC's single-window framework consolidates approvals for wind, solar, and transmission to accelerate energy projects.

✅ Single-window permits via BC Energy Regulator (BCER)

✅ Covers wind, solar, and high-voltage transmission lines

✅ Aligns with CleanBC, supports Indigenous partnerships

In a decisive move to bolster clean energy initiatives, the government of British Columbia (B.C.) has announced plans to overhaul the regulatory framework governing renewable energy projects. This initiative aims to expedite the development of wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources, positioning B.C. as a leader in sustainable energy production.

Transitioning Regulatory Authority to the BC Energy Regulator (BCER)

Central to this strategy is the proposed legislation, set to be introduced in spring 2025, which will transfer the permitting and regulatory oversight of renewable energy projects, aligning with offshore wind regulation plans at the federal level, from multiple agencies to the BC Energy Regulator (BCER). This transition is designed to create a "single-window" permitting process, simplifying approvals and reducing bureaucratic delays for developers.

Expanding BCER's Mandate

Historically known as the British Columbia Oil and Gas Commission, the BCER's mandate has evolved to encompass a broader range of energy projects. The upcoming legislation will empower the BCER to oversee renewable energy projects, including wind and solar, as well as high-voltage transmission lines like the North Coast Transmission Line (NCTL), in step with renewable transmission planning efforts elsewhere in North America. This expansion aims to streamline the regulatory process, providing developers with a single point of contact throughout the project lifecycle.

Economic and Environmental Implications

The restructuring is expected to unlock significant economic opportunities. Projections suggest that the streamlined process could attract between $5 billion and $6 billion in private investment and complement recent federal grid modernization funding initiatives, generating employment opportunities and fostering economic growth. Moreover, by facilitating the rapid deployment of renewable energy projects, B.C. aims to enhance its clean energy capacity, contributing to global sustainability goals.

Strengthening Partnerships with Indigenous Communities

A pivotal aspect of this initiative is the emphasis on collaboration with Indigenous communities. The government has highlighted the importance of engaging First Nations in the development process, ensuring that projects are not only environmentally sustainable but also socially responsible. This approach seeks to honor Indigenous rights and knowledge, fostering partnerships that benefit all stakeholders.

Supporting Infrastructure Development

The acceleration of renewable energy projects necessitates corresponding infrastructure enhancements. The NCTL, for instance, is crucial for meeting the increased electricity demand from sectors such as mining, port electrification, and hydrogen production, and for addressing regional grid constraints that limit renewable integration. By improving the transmission infrastructure, B.C. aims to support the growing energy needs of these industries while promoting clean energy solutions.

Aligning with CleanBC Objectives

This regulatory overhaul aligns seamlessly with B.C.'s CleanBC initiative, which sets ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting energy efficiency, and supports Canada's goal of zero-emissions electricity by 2035 under active consideration. By removing regulatory barriers and expediting project approvals, the government aims to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, positioning B.C. as a hub for clean energy innovation.

Addressing Potential Challenges

While the initiative has been lauded for its potential, experts caution that careful consideration must be given to environmental assessments and Indigenous consultation processes, as well as to lessons from Alberta's solar expansion challenges on land use and grid impacts. Ensuring that projects meet environmental standards and respect Indigenous rights is crucial for the long-term success and acceptance of renewable energy developments.

The proposed changes mark a significant shift in B.C.'s approach to energy development, reflecting a commitment to sustainability and economic growth. As the legislation moves through the legislative process, stakeholders across the energy sector are closely monitoring developments, particularly as Alberta ends its renewables moratorium and resumes project approvals across the Prairies, anticipating a more efficient and transparent regulatory environment that supports the rapid expansion of renewable energy projects.

B.C.'s plan to streamline the regulatory process for clean energy projects represents a bold step toward a sustainable and prosperous energy future. By consolidating regulatory authority under the BCER, fostering Indigenous partnerships, and aligning with broader environmental objectives, the province is setting a precedent for effective governance in the transition to renewable energy.

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Australia Energy Policy Debate highlights IPCC warnings, Paris Agreement goals, coal phase-out, emissions reduction, renewables, gas, pumped hydro, storage, reliability, and investment certainty amid NEG uncertainty and federal-state tensions over targets.

Key Points

Debate over coal, emissions targets, and grid reliability, guided by IPCC science, Paris goals, and market reforms.

✅ IPCC urges rapid cuts and coal phase-out by 2050

✅ NEG's emissions pillar stalled; reliability obligation alive

✅ States, market operators push investment certainty and storage

The United Nation’s climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, on Monday said radical emissions reduction across the world’s economies, including a phase-out of coal by 2050, was required to avoid the most devastating climate change impacts.

The Morrison government dismissed the findings. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg insisted this week that “coal is an important part of the energy mix”.

“If we were to take coal out of the system the lights would go out on the east coast of Australia overnight. It provides more than 60 per cent of our power," he said.

Ms Zibelman, whose organisation operates the nation’s largest gas and electricity markets, said if Australia was to make an orderly transition to low-emissions electricity generation, aligning with the sustainable electric planet vision, “then certainly we would keep the lights on”.

Ms Zibelman said coal assets should be maintained “as long as they are economically viable and we should have a plan to replace them with resources that are lowest cost”.

Those options comprised gas, renewables, pumped hydro and other energy storage, she told ABC radio, as New Zealand weighs electrification to replace fossil fuels.

Under the Paris treaty the government has pledged to lower emissions by 26 per cent by 2030, based on 2005 levels, even as national emissions rose 2% recently according to industry reports.

Labor would increase the goal to a 45 per cent cut - a policy Prime Minister Scott Morrison said last month would " shut down every coal-fired power station in the country and ... increase people’s power bill by about $1,400 on average for every single household”.

The federal government has scrapped its proposed National Energy Guarantee, which would have cut emissions in the electricity sector, but the reliability component of the plan may continue in some form.

The policy was being developed by the Energy Security Board. The group’s chairwoman Kerry Schott has expressed anger at its demise but on Thursday revealed the board was still working on the policy because “nobody told us to stop”.

Speaking at the Melbourne Institute's Outlook conference, she urged the government to revive the emissions reduction component of the plan to provide investment certainty, noting the IEA net-zero report on Canada shows electricity demand rises in decarbonisation.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor, an energy consultant before entering Parliament, on Thursday said the electricity sector would reduce emissions in line with the Paris deal without a mandated target.

Mr Taylor said only a “very brave state” would not support the policy’s reliability obligation.

The federal government has called a COAG energy council meeting for October 26 in Sydney to discuss electricity reliability.

It is understood Mr Taylor has not contacted Victoria, Queensland or the ACT since taking the portfolio, despite needing unanimous support from the states to progress the issue.

The Victorian government goes into caretaker mode on October 30 ahead of that state's election.

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said the federal government was “a rabble when it comes to energy policy, and we won’t be signing anything until after the election".

Speaking at the Melbourne Institute conference, prominent business leaders on Thursday bemoaned a lack of political leadership on energy policy and climate change, saying the only way forward appeared to be for companies to take action themselves, with some pointing to Canada's race to net-zero as a case study in the role of renewables.

Jayne Hrdlicka, chief executive of ASX-listed dairy and infant-formula company a2 Milk, said "we all have an obligation to do the very best job we can in managing our carbon footprint".

"We just need to get on doing what we can .. and then hope that policy will catch up. But we can’t wait," she said.

Ms Hrdlicka said the recent federal political turmoil had been frustrating "because if you invest in building relationships as most of us do in Canberra and then overnight they are all changed, you’re starting from scratch".

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