Quietly, wind farms spread footprint in U.S.

By Reuters


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At 265 feet tall, four gleaming white wind turbines tower over the tiny farm town of Rock Port, Missouri, like a landing of alien intruders.

But despite their imposing presence and the stark contrast with the rolling pastures and corn fields, the turbines have received a warm welcome here.

As Eric Chamberlain, who manages the wind farm for Wind Capital Group, eats lunch in a local restaurant, local people greet him with a "Hey Windy!" and many say they are happy to be using clean electricity.

"It doesn't pollute the environment, it provides tax revenue, creates jobs. I don't see a downside," said Chamberlain, who is something of a celebrity in this town of 1,400 people.

While growth in ethanol use as an alternative fuel has had a big impact on rural America, wind power has also been growing steadily for the past three years, with wind farms like this one springing up all over the windy expanse of the Great Plains and beyond.

While only 1 percent of U.S. electricity comes from wind, it is attracting so much support these days that many in the industry believe it is poised for a growth spurt.

"These are pretty heady times," said Randall Swisher, executive director of the American Wind Energy Association, which held an investment conference April 30 in Iowa that drew more than 600 attendees.

"People are finally starting to see the data about what is happening to the world's climate and that is really having an impact," said Swisher.

Last year, a record 3,100 turbines were installed across 34 U.S. states and another 2,000 turbines are now under construction from California to Massachusetts. In all, there are about more than 25,000 U.S. turbines in operation, an investment of $15 billion.

On May 12, the U.S. Energy Department said wind power could provide 20 percent of U.S. electricity by 2030, or 304 gigawatts, up from the current 16.8 gigawatts. Achieving that will require that wind turbine installations rise to almost 7,000 a year by 2017, the department said.

The industry appears poised to comply.

In March, GE Energy announced it had secured a $1 billion deal to supply 750 megawatts of wind turbines - enough to power about 200,000 households.

In April, Nebraska officials broke ground on a wind farm that would be the largest in that state, providing power for an estimated 25,000 homes.

Also in April, the electric company Wisconsin Public Service Corp. won approval from state regulators to construct a $251 million wind farm in Iowa to help it meet a state mandate that it boost its supply of renewable power.

In Texas, legendary oil man T. Boone Pickens has announced plans to invest in a wind farm that would provide enough electricity for about 1 million homes. Pickens' company, Mesa Power, this month ordered more than 600 wind turbines from GE to get started.

And, this year, Kansas became the first state in the nation to reject expansion of coal-fired plants specifically because of global warming worries. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is recommending wind energy as an alternative and successfully fought legislative efforts to overrule her.

Wind Capital, based in St. Louis, Missouri, is a relatively small player. It operates three wind farms in Missouri and has plans for projects in 10 U.S. states. Among its backers are Irish renewable energy company NTR Plc, which invested $150 million in April, and a unit of Deere & Co, with a $200 million investment.

The firm leases land from farmers on which to build its turbines. In Rock Port, homes and businesses getting power from the municipal utility are now using wind energy, backed by conventional electricity supplies from the Missouri Joint Municipal Utility system.

Increasingly, states are mandating that utilities obtain a portion of their power through such renewable sources. Wind energy is also benefiting from a Production Tax Credit federal subsidy of 2 cents per kilowatt hour of electricity produced.

According to the American Wind Energy Association, this amounts to $4.5 billion over 10 years.

That is still far less than the $3.57 billion in annual subsidies enjoyed by the ethanol distillers under a 51 cents per gallon Ethanol Excise Tax Credit.

Supporters say along with helping the nation break a dependence on costly oil, natural gas and coal, they see wind energy as part of a base for "green-collar" employment, with jobs in manufacturing towers, blades and other components.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for president, has proposed investing $150 billion over the next decade for investments in alternative energy, including wind, solar and biodiesel. His rival for the nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton is also proposing a $150 billon ten-year investment in a "new energy future."

Sen. John McCain, the Republican Party's presumed nominee for November's presidential election, has also said he supports wind energy. McCain even chose a wind-energy facility in Portland, Oregon, as the setting for a May 12 policy speech on global warming.

Critics argue that imposing wind turbines spoil landscapes and disrupt wildlife habitats, and such worries have dogged what would be the first U.S. offshore commercial wind-powered electricity generator, proposed to cover 28 square miles of shallow waters off the Massachusetts coast.

As well, there is the reality that sometimes the wind just doesn't blow. That means wind turbines cannot be relied on as a sole power source, but rather as a supplement. And transmission lines and grid systems have yet to be established across much of the windblown prairie.

But the greatest concern currently for the wind energy industry is that for all the public support, the Production Tax Credit is set to expire in December. U.S. lawmakers and President Bush have repeatedly failed to agree on how to fund an extension.

"We continue to push ahead because we believe that renewable energy does make a lot of sense and even policy makers at some point will have to realize something has to be done with $120 a barrel oil," said Michael Polsky, CEO of Invenergy LLC, a Chicago-based wind developer.

Since the $90 million Loess Hill wind farm in Rock Port came online in April, it has been a point of pride for residents that, over a year, the farm should generate enough power to exceed the town's consumption.

Farmer Todd Herron, who receives $5,000 a year from Wind Capital Group for hosting a spinning turbine on one of his corn fields, said there should be no argument against using wind to make electricity instead of coal or natural gas.

"This is a rural farming community," said Herron. "Our lives depend on the Earth. We've got to keep it in as good a shape as we can."

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DP Energy Sells 325MW Solar Park to Medicine Hat

Saamis Solar Park advances Medicine Hat's renewable energy strategy, as DP Energy secures AUC approval for North America's largest urban solar, repurposing contaminated land; capacity phased from 325 MW toward an initial 75 MW.

 

Key Points

A 325 MW solar project in Medicine Hat, Alberta, repurposing contaminated land; phased to 75 MW under city ownership.

✅ City acquisition scales capacity to 75 MW in phased build

✅ AUC approval enables construction and grid integration

✅ Reuses phosphogypsum-impacted land near fertilizer plant

 

DP Energy, an Irish renewable energy developer, has finalized the sale of the Saamis Solar Park—a 325 megawatt (MW) solar project—to the City of Medicine Hat in Alberta, Canada. This transaction marks the development of North America's largest urban solar initiative, while mirroring other Canadian clean-energy deals such as Canadian Solar project sales that signal market depth.

Project Development and Approval

DP Energy secured development rights for the Saamis Solar Park in 2017 and obtained a development permit in 2021. In 2024, the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) granted approval for construction and operation, reflecting Alberta's solar growth trends in recent years, paving the way for the project's advancement.

Strategic Acquisition by Medicine Hat

The City of Medicine Hat's acquisition of the Saamis Solar Park aligns with its commitment to enhancing renewable energy infrastructure. Initially, the project was slated for a 325 MW capacity, which would significantly bolster the city's energy supply. However, the city has proposed scaling the project to a 75 MW capacity, focusing on a phased development approach, and doing so amid challenges with solar expansion in Alberta that influence siting and timing. This adjustment aims to align the project's scale with the city's current energy needs and strategic objectives.

Utilization of Contaminated Land

An innovative aspect of the Saamis Solar Park is its location on a 1,600-acre site previously affected by industrial activity. The land, near Medicine Hat's fertilizer plant, was previously compromised by phosphogypsum—a byproduct of fertilizer production. DP Energy's decision to develop the solar park on this site exemplifies a productive reuse of contaminated land, transforming it into a source of clean energy.

Benefits to Medicine Hat

The development of the Saamis Solar Park is poised to deliver multiple benefits to Medicine Hat:

  • Energy Supply Enhancement: The project will augment the city's energy grid, much like municipal solar projects that provide local power, providing a substantial portion of its electricity needs.

  • Economic Advantages: The city anticipates financial savings by reducing carbon tax liabilities, as lower-cost solar contracts have shown competitiveness, through the generation of renewable energy.

  • Environmental Impact: By investing in renewable energy, Medicine Hat aims to reduce its carbon footprint and contribute to global sustainability efforts.

DP Energy's Ongoing Commitment

Despite the sale, DP Energy maintains a strong presence in Canada, where Indigenous-led generation is expanding, with a diverse portfolio of renewable energy projects, including solar, onshore wind, storage, and offshore wind initiatives. The company continues to focus on sustainable development practices, striving to minimize environmental impact while maximizing energy production efficiency.

The transfer of the Saamis Solar Park to the City of Medicine Hat represents a significant milestone in renewable energy development. It showcases effective land reutilization, strategic urban planning, and a shared commitment to sustainable energy solutions, aligning with federal green electricity procurement that reinforces market demand. This project not only enhances the city's energy infrastructure but also sets a precedent for integrating large-scale renewable energy projects within urban environments.

 

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Ontario confronts reality of being short of electricity in the coming years

Ontario electricity shortage is looming, RBC and IESO warn, as EV electrification surges, Pickering nuclear faces delays, and gas plants backstop expiring renewables, raising GHG emissions and grid reliability concerns across the province.

 

Key Points

A projected supply shortfall as demand rises from electrification, expiring contracts, and delayed nuclear capacity.

✅ RBC warns shortages as early as 2026, significant by 2030

✅ IESO sees EV-driven demand; 5,000-15,000 MW by 2035

✅ Gas reliance boosts GHGs; Pickering life extension assessed

 

In a fit of ideological pique, Doug Ford’s government spent more than $200 million to scrap more than 700 green energy projects soon after winning the 2018 election, amid calls to make clean, affordable power a central issue, portraying them as “unnecessary and expensive energy schemes.”

A year later, then Associate Energy Minister Bill Walker defended the decision, declaring, “Ontario has an adequate supply of power right now.”

Well, life moves fast. At the time, scrapping the renewable energy projects was criticized as short-sighted and wasteful, raising doubts about whether Ontario was embracing clean power in a meaningful way. It seems especially so now as Ontario confronts the reality of being short of electricity in the coming years.

How short? A recent report by RBC calls the situation “urgent,” saying that Canada’s most populous province could face energy shortages as early as 2026. As contracts for non-hydro renewables and gas plants expire, the shortages could be “significant” by 2030, the bank report said, with grid greening costs adding to the challenge.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), which manages the electrical supply in Ontario, says demand for electricity could rise at rates not seen in many years, as the government moves to add new gas plants to boost capacity. “Economic growth coming out of the pandemic, along with electrification in many sectors, is driving energy use up,” the agency said in a December assessment.

The good news is that demand is being driven, in part, by the transition to “green” power – carbon-emission-free electricity – by sectors such as transportation and manufacturing. That will help reduce emissions. Yet meeting that demand presents some challenges, prompting the province to outline a plan to address growing needs across the system. The shift to electric vehicles alone is expected to cause a spike in demand starting in 2030. By 2035, the province could need an additional 5,000 to 15,000 megawatts of electricity, the IESO estimates.

It was perhaps no surprise then to see the province announce last week that it wants to delay the long-planned closing of the Pickering nuclear plant by a year to 2026, even as others note the station is slated to close as planned. Operations beyond that would require refurbishing the facility. The province said it’s taking a fresh look at whether that would make sense to extend its life by another 30 years.

In the interim, the province will be forced to dramatically ramp up its reliance on natural gas plants for electricity generation – and, as analysts warn, Ontario’s power mix could get dirtier even before new non-emitting capacity is built, and in the process, increase greenhouse gas emissions from the energy grid by 400 per cent. Broader electrification is expected to produce “significant” GHG emissions reductions in Ontario over the next two decades, according to the IESO. Still, it’s working at cross-purposes if your electric car is charged by electricity generated by fossil fuels.

 

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Drought, lack of rain means BC Hydro must adapt power generation

BC Hydro drought operations address climate change impacts with hydropower scheduling, reservoir management, water conservation, inflow forecasting, and fish habitat protection across the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island while maintaining electricity generation from storage facilities.

 

Key Points

BC Hydro drought operations conserve water, protect fish, and sustain hydropower during extended heat and low inflows.

✅ Proactive reservoir releases protect downstream salmon spawning.

✅ Reduced flows at Puntledge, Coquitlam, and Ruskin/Stave facilities.

✅ System relies on northern storage to maintain electricity supply.

 

BC Hydro is adjusting its operating plans around power generation as extended heat and little forecast rain continue to impact the province, a report says.

“Unpredictable weather patterns related to climate change are expected to continue in the years ahead and BC Hydro is constantly adapting to these evolving conditions, especially after events such as record demand in 2021 that tested the grid,” said the report, titled “Casting drought: How climate change is contributing to uncertain weather and how BC Hydro’s generation system is adapting.”

The study said there is no concern with BC Hydro being able to continue to deliver power through the drought because there is enough water at its larger facilities, even as issues like crypto mining electricity use draw scrutiny from observers.

Still, it said, with no meaningful precipitation in the forecast, its smaller facilities in the Lower Mainland and on Vancouver Island will continue to see record low or near record low inflows for this time of the year.

“In the Lower Mainland, inflows since the beginning of September are ranked in the bottom three compared to historical records,” the report said.

The report said the hydroelectric system is directly impacted by variations in weather and the record-setting, unseasonably dry and warm weather this fall highlights the impacts of climate change, while demand patterns can be counterintuitive, as electricity use even increased during Earth Hour 2018 in some areas, hinting at challenges to come.

It noted symptoms of climate change include increased frequency of extreme events like drought and intense storms, and rapid glacial melt.

“With the extremely hot and dry conditions, BC Hydro has been taking proactive steps at many of our South Coast facilities for months to conserve water to protect the downstream fish habit,” spokesperson Mora Scott said. “We began holding back water in July and August at some facilities anticipating the dry conditions to help ensure we would have water storage for the later summer and early fall salmon spawning.”

Scott said BC Hydro’s reservoirs play an important role in managing these difficult conditions by using storage and planning releases to provide protection to downstream river flows. The reservoirs are, in effect, a battery waiting to be used for power.

While the dry conditions have had an impact on BC Hydro’s watersheds, several unregulated natural river systems — not related to BC Hydro — have fared worse, with rivers drying up and thousands of fish killed, the report said.

BC Hydro is currently seeing the most significant impacts on operations at Puntledge and Campbell River on Vancouver Island as well as Coquitlam and Ruskin/Stave in the Lower Mainland.

To help manage water levels on Vancouver Island, BC Hydro reduced Puntledge River flows by one-third last week and on the Lower Mainland reduced flows at Coquitlam by one-third and Ruskin/Stave by one quarter.

However, the utility company said, there are no concerns about continued power delivery.

“British Columbians benefit from BC Hydro’s integrated, provincial electricity system, which helps send power across the province, including to Vancouver Island, and programs like the winter payment plan support customers during colder months,” staff said.

Most of the electricity generated and used in B.C. is produced by larger facilities in the north and southeast of the province — and while water levels in those areas are below normal levels, there is enough water to meet the province’s power needs, even as additions like Site C's electricity remain a subject of debate among observers.

The Glacier Media investigation found a quarter of BC Hydro's power comes from the Mica, Revelstoke and Hugh Keenleyside dams on the Columbia River. Some 29% comes from dams in the Peace region, including the under-construction Site C project that has faced cost overruns. At certain points of the year, those reservoirs are reliant on glacier water.

Still, BC Hydro remains optimistic.

Forecasts are currently showing little rain in the near-term; however, historically, precipitation and inflows show up by the end of October. If that does not happen, BC Hydro said it would continue to closely track weather and inflow forecasts to adapt its operations to protect fish, while regional cooperation such as bridging with Alberta remains part of broader policy discussions.

Among things BC Hydro said it is doing to adapt are:

Continuously working to improve its weather and inflow forecasting;
Expanding its hydroclimate monitoring technology, including custom-made solutions that have been designed in-house, as well as upgrading snow survey stations to automated, real-time snow and climate stations, and;
Investing in capital projects — like spillway gate replacements — that will increase resiliency of the system to climate change.

 

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TagEnergy Launches France’s Largest Battery Storage Platform

TagEnergy France Battery Storage Platform enables grid flexibility, stability, and resilience across France, storing wind and solar power, balancing supply and demand, reducing curtailment, and supporting carbon neutrality with fast-response, utility-scale capacity.

 

Key Points

A utility-scale BESS in France that stores renewable energy to stabilize the grid, boost flexibility, and cut emissions.

✅ Several hundred MW utility-scale capacity for peak shaving.

✅ Fast-response frequency regulation and voltage support.

✅ Reduces fossil peaker use and renewable curtailment.

 

In a significant leap toward enhancing France’s renewable energy infrastructure, TagEnergy has officially launched the country's largest battery storage platform. This cutting-edge project is set to revolutionize the way France manages its electricity grid by providing much-needed flexibility, stability, and resilience, particularly as the country ramps up its use of renewable energy sources and experiences negative prices in France during periods of oversupply,

The new battery storage platform, with a total capacity of several hundred megawatts, will play a crucial role in facilitating the country's transition to a greener, more sustainable energy future. It marks a significant step forward in addressing one of the most pressing challenges of renewable energy: how to store and dispatch power generated from intermittent sources such as wind and solar energy.

The Role of Battery Storage in Renewable Energy

Battery storage systems are key to unlocking the full potential of renewable energy sources. While wind and solar power are increasingly important in reducing reliance on fossil fuels, their intermittent nature—dependent on weather conditions and time of day—presents a challenge for grid operators. Without an efficient way to store surplus energy produced during peak generation periods, when negative electricity prices can emerge, the grid can become unstable, leading to waste or even blackouts.

This is where TagEnergy’s new platform comes into play. The state-of-the-art battery storage system will capture excess energy when production is high, and then release it back into the grid during periods of high demand, supporting peak demand strategies or when renewable generation dips. This capability will smooth out the fluctuations in renewable energy production and ensure a constant, reliable supply of power to consumers. By doing so, the platform will not only stabilize the grid but also increase the overall efficiency and utilization of renewable energy sources.

The Scale and Scope of the Platform

TagEnergy's battery storage platform is one of the largest in France, with a capacity capable of supporting a wide range of energy storage needs across the country. The platform’s size is designed to handle significant energy loads, making it a critical piece of infrastructure for grid stability. The project will primarily focus on large-scale energy storage, but it will also incorporate cutting-edge technologies to ensure fast response times and high efficiency in energy release.

France’s energy mix is undergoing a transformation as the country aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. With ambitious plans to expand renewable energy production, particularly from offshore wind such as North Sea wind potential, solar, and hydropower, energy storage becomes essential for managing supply and demand. The new battery platform is poised to provide the necessary storage capabilities to keep up with this shift toward greener, more sustainable energy production.

Economic and Environmental Impact

The launch of the battery storage platform is a major boon for the French economy, creating jobs and attracting investment in the clean energy sector. The project is expected to generate hundreds of construction and operational jobs, providing a boost to local economies, particularly in the areas where the storage facilities are located.

From an environmental perspective, the platform’s ability to store and release renewable energy will greatly reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. The efficient storage of solar and wind energy will mean that more clean electricity can be used, with solar-plus-storage cheaper than conventional power in Germany underscoring cost competitiveness, even during times when these renewable sources are not producing at full capacity. This will help France meet its energy and climate goals, including reducing carbon emissions by 40% by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.

The development also aligns with broader European Union goals to increase the share of renewables in the energy mix. As EU nations work toward their collective climate commitments, energy storage projects like TagEnergy’s platform will be vital in helping the continent achieve a greener, more sustainable future.

A Step Toward Energy Independence

The new battery storage platform also has the potential to enhance France’s energy independence. By increasing the storage capacity for renewable energy, France will be able to rely less on imported fossil fuels and energy from neighboring countries, particularly during periods of high demand. Energy independence is a key strategic goal for many nations, as it reduces vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating energy prices.

In addition to bolstering national security, the platform supports France’s energy transition by facilitating the deployment of more renewable energy. As storage capacity increases, grid operators will be able to integrate larger quantities of intermittent renewable energy without sacrificing reliability. This will enable France to meet its long-term energy goals while also supporting the EU’s ambitious climate targets.

Future of Battery Storage in France and Beyond

TagEnergy’s launch of France’s largest battery storage platform is a monumental achievement in the country’s energy transition. However, it is unlikely to be the last of its kind. The success of this project could pave the way for similar initiatives across France and the wider European market. As battery storage technology advances, and affordable solar batteries scale up, the capacity for storing and utilizing renewable energy will only grow, unlocking new possibilities for clean, affordable power.

Looking ahead, TagEnergy plans to expand its operations and further invest in renewable energy solutions. The French market, along with growing demand for storage solutions across Europe, presents significant opportunities for further development in the energy storage sector. With the continued integration of renewable energy into the grid, large-scale storage platforms will play an increasingly critical role in shaping a low-carbon future.

The launch of TagEnergy’s battery storage platform marks a pivotal moment for France’s renewable energy landscape. By providing critical storage capacity and ensuring the reliable delivery of clean electricity, the platform will help the country meet its ambitious climate and energy goals. As technology advances and the global transition to renewables accelerates, with over 30% of global electricity now coming from renewables, projects like this one will play an essential role in creating a sustainable, low-carbon energy future.

 

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Typical Ontario electricity bill set to increase nearly 2% as fixed pricing ends

Ontario Electricity Rates update: OEB sets time-of-use and tiered pricing for residential customers, with kWh charges for peak, mid-peak, and off-peak periods reflecting COVID-19 impacts on demand, supply costs, and pricing.

 

Key Points

Ontario Electricity Rates are OEB-set time-of-use and tiered prices that set per-kWh costs for residential customers.

✅ Time-of-use: 21.7 peak, 15.0 mid-peak, 10.5 off-peak cents/kWh

✅ Tiered: 12.6 cents/kWh up to 1000 kWh, then 14.6 cents/kWh

✅ Average 700 kWh home pays about $2.24 more per month

 

Energy bills for the typical Ontario home are going up by about two per cent with fixed pricing coming to an end on Nov. 1, the Ontario Energy Board says. 

The province's electricity regulator has released new time-of-use pricing and says the rate for the average residential customer using 700 kWh per month will increase by about $2.24.

The change comes as Ontario stretches into its eight month of the COVID-19 pandemic with new case counts reaching levels higher than ever seen before.

Time-of-use pricing had been scrapped for residential bills for much for the pandemic with a single fixed COVID-19 hydro rate set for all hours of the day. The move, which came into effect June 1, was meant "to support families, small business and farms while Ontario plans for the safe and gradual reopening of the province," the OEB said at the time.

Ontario later set the off-peak price until February 7 around the clock to provide additional relief.

Fixed pricing meant customers' bills reflected how much power they used, rather than when they used it. Customers were charged 12.8 cents/kWh under the COVID-19 recovery rate no matter their time of use.

Beginning November, the province says customers can choose between time-of-use and tiered pricing options. Rates for time-of-use plans will be 21.7 cents/kWh during peak hours, 15 cents/kWh for mid-peak use and 10.5 cents/kWh for off-peak use. 

Customers choosing tiered pricing will pay 12.6 cents/kWh for the first 1000 kWh each month and then 14.6 cents/kWh for any power used beyond that.

The energy board says the increase in pricing reflects "a combination of factors, including those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, that have affected demand, supply costs and prices in the summer and fall of 2020."

Asked for his reaction to the move Tuesday, Premier Doug Ford said, "I hate it," adding the province inherited an energy "mess" from the previous Liberal government and are "chipping away at it."

 

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Most Energy Will Come From Fossil Fuels, Even In 2040

2040 Energy Outlook projects a shifting energy mix as renewables scale, EV adoption accelerates, and IEA forecasts plateauing oil demand alongside rising natural gas, highlighting policy, efficiency, and decarbonization trends that shape global consumption.

 

Key Points

A data-driven view of future energy mix, covering renewables, fossil fuels, EVs, oil demand, and policy impacts.

✅ Renewables reach 16-30% by 2040, higher with strong policy support.

✅ Fossil fuels remain dominant, with oil flat and natural gas rising.

✅ EV share surges, cutting oil use; efficiency curbs demand growth.

 

Which is more plausible: flying taxis, wind turbine arrays stretching miles into the ocean, and a solar roof on every house--or a scorched-earth, flooded post-Apocalyptic world? 

We have no way of peeking into the future, but we can certainly imagine it. There is plenty of information about where the world is headed and regardless of how reliable this information is—or isn’t—we never stop wondering. Will the energy world of 20 years from now be better or worse than the world we live in now? 

The answer may very well lie in the observable trends.


A Growing Population

The global population is growing, and it will continue to grow in the next two decades. This will drive a steady growth in energy demand, at about 1 percent per year, according to the International Energy Agency.

This modest rate of growth is good news for all who are concerned about the future of the planet. Parts of the world are trying to reduce their energy consumption, and this should have a positive effect on the carbon footprint of humanity. The energy thirst of most parts of the world will continue growing, however, hence the overall growth.

The world’s population is currently growing at a rate of a little over 1 percent annually. This rate of growth has been slowing since its peak in the 1960s and forecasts suggest that it will continue to slow. Growth in energy demand, on the other hand, may at some point stop moving in tune with population growth trends as affluence in some parts of the world grows. The richer people get, the more energy they need. So, to the big question: where will this energy come from?


The Rise of Renewables

For all the headline space they have been claiming, it may come as a disappointing surprise to many that renewable energy, excluding hydropower, to date accounts for just 14 percent of the global primary energy mix. 

Certainly, adoption of solar and wind energy has been growing in leaps and bounds, with their global share doubling in five years in many markets, but unless governments around the world commit a lot more money and effort to renewable energy, by 2040, solar and wind’s share in the energy mix will still only rise to about 16 to 17 percent. That’s according to the only comprehensive report on the future of energy that collates data from all the leading energy authorities in the world, by non-profit Resources for the Future.

The growth in renewables adoption, however, would be a lot more impressive if governments do make serious commitments. Under that scenario, the share of renewables will double to over 30 percent by 2040, echoing milestones like over 30% of global electricity reached recently: that’s the median rate of all authoritative forecasts. Amongst them, the adoption rates of renewables vary between 15 percent and 61 percent by 2040.

Even the most bullish of the forecasts on renewables is still far below the 100-percent renewable future many would like to fantasize about, although BNEF’s 50% by 2050 outlook points to what could be possible in the power sector. 

But in 2040, most of the world’s energy will still come from fossil fuels.


EV Energy

Here, forecasters are more optimistic. Again, there is a wide variation between forecasts, but in each and every one of them the share of electric vehicles on the world’s roads in 2040 is a lot higher than the meagre 1 percent of the global car fleet EVs constitute today.
Related: Gas Prices Languish As Storage Falls To Near-Record Lows

Government policy will be the key, as U.S. progress toward 30% wind and solar shows how policy steers the power mix that EVs ultimately depend on. Bans of internal combustion engines will go a long way toward boosting EV adoption, which is why some forecasters expect electric cars to come to account for more than 50 percent of cars on the road in 2040. Others, however, are more guarded in their forecasts, seeing their share of the global fleet at between 16 percent and a little over 40 percent.

Many pin their hopes for a less emission-intensive future on electric cars. Indeed, as the number of EVs rises, they displace ICE vehicles and, respectively, the emission-causing oil that fuels for ICE cars are made from.  It should be a no brainer that the more EVs we drive, the less emissions we produce. Unfortunately, this is not necessarily the case: China is the world’s biggest EV market, and its solar PV expansion has been rapid, it has the most EVs—including passenger cars and buses—but it is also one of the biggest emitters.

Still, by 2040, if the more optimistic forecasts come true, the world will be consuming less oil than it is consuming now: anywhere from 1.2 million bpd to 20 million bpd less, the latter case envisaging an all-electric global fleet in 2040. 


This Ain’t Your Daddy’s Oil

No, it ain’t. It’s your grandchildren’s oil, for good or for bad. The vision of an oil-free world where renewable power is both abundant and cheap enough to replace all the ways in which crude oil and natural gas are used will in 2040 still be just that--a vision, with practical U.S. grid constraints underscoring the challenges. Even the most optimistic energy scenarios for two decades from now see them as the dominant source of energy, with forecasts ranging between 60 percent and 79 percent. While these extremes are both below the over-80 percent share fossil fuels have in the world’s energy mix, they are well above 50 percent, and in the U.S. renewables are projected to reach about one-fourth of electricity soon, even as fossil fuels remain foundational.

Still, there is good news. Fuel efficiency alone will reduce oil demand significantly by 2040. In fact, according to the IEA, demand will plateau at a little over 100 million bpd by the mid-2030s. Combined with the influx of EVs many expect, the world of 20 years from now may indeed be consuming a lot less oil than the world of today. It will, however, likely consume a lot more natural gas. There is simply no way around fossil fuels, not yet. Unless a miracle of politics happens (complete with a ripple effect that will cost millions of people their jobs) in 2040 we will be as dependent on oil and gas as we are but we will hopefully breathe cleaner air.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 

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