The woman behind Areva

By International Herald Tribune


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It was little wonder that Anne Lauvergeon, daughter of a historian and niece of an archaeologist, felt drawn to antiquity as a girl. Until her uncle took her on her first dig one summer.

"I discovered it was a lot of dirt, dirty hands, and crawling around on all fours," Lauvergeon, now 48, said in explaining how her interest had shifted from the past to the future.

She now runs the French nuclear energy company, Areva.

Her long path from dirty hands to the corporate suite took some unexpected turns, leaving her one of the most powerful women in French business. An autonomous streak showed up early.

"I worked in the summer when I was 15 or 16," she said, a rarity among French young people. "I wanted to be independent."

In recent years, nuclear energy risked becoming part of the past, as countries around the world, like the United States, Germany and Japan, refrained from expanding the stock of nuclear power plants they had or, if they had none, like Italy and Poland, refused to plunge into the nuclear age. But the business of nuclear energy has come alive again, and it is people like Lauvergeon who are changing it.

With the volatile cost of carbon fuels, like oil and natural gas, and the need to reduce the level of greenhouse emissions that cause global warming, the promoters of nuclear energy have gone into action. Companies like Westinghouse, General Electric and Areva, which design and build nuclear power plants, are fishing for contracts and landing them in Asia, including China, where nuclear energy is expected to play a large role. Now they are setting their sights on developed countries in the West, like Britain, Germany, the Scandinavian countries and the United States.

"It's not expensive, and the costs are totally predictable," Lauvergeon said in her office in a meticulously restored Art Deco building in the center of Paris. "The cost of uranium is only 5 percent of your costs."

Moreover, she said, nuclear energy created no foreign dependence for fuel and produced no greenhouse gases.

Nuclear power is becoming a case study in globalization, as more countries are induced to include it in their energy plans and to pay other countries for the technology they need.

"A nuclear renaissance is now gearing up everywhere in the world," said John Ritch 3rd, a former U.S. diplomat who is director general of the World Nuclear Association, an industry association. "It is occurring parallel to an enormous expansion in energy consumption."

Of course, not everyone likes the idea of more nuclear energy.

"Currently there is no safe way to deal with radioactive waste," said Nathan Argent, who follows the industry for Greenpeace, one of many anti-nuclear groups. Such groups argue, moreover, that the spread of nuclear technology leads to the proliferation of atomic weapons.

Some governments heed their anti-nuclear constituencies. Germany, once a leader in nuclear energy, is committed to dropping nuclear energy by 2020; Sweden is similarly committed to phasing out its nuclear plants by 2010.

But Lauvergeon is talking about the benefits of nuclear energy as a clean and, she argues, safe alternative to carbon fuels. She highlights Areva's experience in converting spent fuel into mixed oxide, or MOX, pellets, that can be burned in nuclear reactors.

She can speak with conviction because France, unlike most of the world, never backed away from atomic power. About 80 percent of the electricity used in France is generated by nuclear plants.

The new government of President Nicolas Sarkozy is giving Lauvergeon a helping hand. In addressing the United Nations and on trips to countries in the Mediterranean basin, notably Libya and Morocco, Sarkozy has pushed French nuclear technology.

Lauvergeon is emphatic that Areva is not in the business of proliferation. "Without ambiguity, we don't accept to do business with countries that don't accept, without doubt, international controls," she said.

In the first nine months of 2007 Areva had $11.6 billion in revenue, 6.8 percent more than a year earlier, building power plants but also mining and processing uranium and disposing of spent fuel. Its order book in the first half of the year rose 30 percent to $45 billion. It is building two power plants, using the latest design, known as a European pressurized water reactor, in France and in Finland. She expects to sign contracts for two more in China.

Lauvergeon faces strong competition, primarily from Westinghouse, GE and the Russian reactor builder, Atomstroyexport. Westinghouse is now part of Toshiba, and GE operates in cooperation with Hitachi. But Areva is arguably the leader in building nuclear plants in recent years.

Lauvergeon notes that Areva is taking the competition to the Westinghouse home turf, having established a joint venture with Constellation Energy, a Baltimore utility, to sell its power plants in the United States. It is also cooperating with Électricité de France, the French utility, to penetrate the American market. Her sales pitch? "Eighty percent of value should be American," she said. "We want to reinstate the nuclear industry there, which almost disappeared."

Areva has 6,000 employees in the United States, she said, and is constantly training more.

Lauvergeon grew up in Orleans, in the heartland of France, where her father was a professor of geography, though her interest in the past gradually made way for studies at university in chemistry and physics and to a degree from the École des Mines in Paris, an elite engineering school.

After graduation she worked for several French companies, including Usinor, the steel company that is now part of Arcelor Mittal. In 1995, she became a partner in Paris at Lazard Frères, spending several months at the investment bank's New York office.

Lauvergeon assembled Areva in 2001 from the bickering factions of the state-owned nuclear establishment, the fuel company Cogema and the reactor builder Framatome, creating what can ben considered the only one-stop nuclear shop, selling uranium, reactors, fuel reprocessing and waste storage.

It was around that time that she first visited a nuclear reactor. "It was clean, very modern, and I was impressed by the idea that a tiny amount of uranium produced a huge amount of energy," she said. And this, she added, despite her being at the time, "very écolo," French shorthand for environmentalist. To blunt green criticism, she invigorated Cogema's communications policy.

"We were ready to discuss, and not only with our friends," she said. "It was tested. We won."

"At the time, many said we had no future," she went on. "I said, 'We have a future, and we should invest.' In this new situation, we're very attractive."

Now Areva needs cash to grow, and the French government is considering all options, including selling shares in Areva. Less than 5 percent of the company trades on the Paris exchange, via nonvoting investment certificates. A merger with the French turbine maker Alstom is possible. This likelihood has lifted Areva shares more than 50 percent over the past year. Lauvergeon said she favored "an opening of the capital, with one or two industrial partners."

The centerpiece of Lauvergeon's sales pitch is the European pressurized water reactor, and Areva is building the first of its kind in a dark pine forest in Finland. But the Finnish project is years behind schedule with cost overruns reported to be as high as $1 billion. Lauvergeon said Areva did not publish the provisions it makes for such losses, but she confessed that Areva was unlikely to make money on the project.

"It won't be profitable," she said. "It's an investment, an incredible show window."

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Ontario plunging into energy storage as electricity supply crunch looms

Ontario Energy Storage Procurement accelerates grid flexibility as IESO seeks lithium batteries, pumped storage, compressed air, and flywheels to balance renewables, support EV charging, and complement gas peakers during Pickering refits and rising electricity demand.

 

Key Points

Ontario's plan to procure 2,500 MW of storage to firm renewables, aid EV charging, and add flexible grid capacity.

✅ 2,500 MW storage plus 1,500 MW gas for 2025-2027 reliability

✅ Mix: lithium batteries, pumped storage, compressed air, flywheels

✅ Enables VPPs via EVs, demand response, and hybrid solar-storage

 

Ontario is staring down an electricity supply crunch and amid a rush to secure more power, it is plunging into the world of energy storage — a relatively unknown solution for the grid that experts say could also change energy use at home.

Beyond the sprawling nuclear plants and waterfalls that generate most of the province’s electricity sit the batteries, the underground caverns storing compressed air to generate electricity, and the spinning flywheels waiting to store energy at times of low demand and inject it back into the system when needed.

The province’s energy needs are quickly rising, with the proliferation of electric vehicles and growing Canada-U.S. collaboration on EV adoption, and increasing manufacturing demand for electricity on the horizon just as a large nuclear plant that supplies 14 per cent of Ontario’s electricity is set to be retired and other units are being refurbished.

The government is seeking to extend the life of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, planning an import agreement for power with Quebec, rolling out conservation programs, and — controversially — relying on more natural gas to fill the looming gap between demand and supply, amid Northern Ontario sustainability debates.

Officials with the Independent Electricity System Operator say a key advantage of natural gas generation is that it can quickly ramp up and down to meet changes in demand. Energy storage can provide that same flexibility, those in the industry say.

Energy Minister Todd Smith has directed the IESO to secure 1,500 megawatts of new natural gas capacity between 2025 and 2027, along with 2,500 megawatts of clean technology such as energy storage that can be deployed quickly, which together would be enough to power the city of Toronto.

It’s a far cry from the 54 megawatts of energy storage in use in Ontario’s grid right now.

Smith said in an interview that it’s the largest active procurement for energy storage in North America.

“The one thing that we want to ensure that we do is continue to add clean generation as much as possible, and affordable and clean generation that’s reliable,” he said.

Rupp Carriveau, director of the Environmental Energy Institute at the University of Windsor, said the timing is good.

“The space is there, the technology is there, and the willingness among private industry to respond is all there,” he said. “I know of a lot of companies that have been rubbing their hands together, looking at this potential to construct storage capacity.”

Justin Rangooni, the executive director of Energy Storage Canada, said because of the relatively tight timelines, the 2,500 megawatts is likely to be mostly lithium batteries. But there are many other ways to store energy, other than a simple battery.

“As we get to future procurements and as years pass, you’ll start to see possibly pump storage, compressed air, thermal storage, different battery chemistry,” he said.

Pump storage involves using electricity during off-peak periods to pump water into a reservoir and slowly releasing it to run a turbine and generate electricity when it’s needed. Compressed air works similarly, and old salt caverns in Goderich, Ont., are being used to store the compressed air.

In thermal storage, electricity is used to heat water when demand is low and when it’s needed, water stored in tanks can be used as heat or hot water.

Flywheels are large spinning tops that can store kinetic energy, which can be used to power a turbine and produce electricity. A flywheel facility in Minto, Ont., also installed solar panels on its roof and became the first solar storage hybrid facility in Ontario, said a top IESO official.

Katherine Sparkes, the IESO’s director of innovation, research and development, said it’s exciting, from a grid perspective.

“As we kind of look to the future and we think about gas phase out and electrification, one of the big challenges that all power systems across North America and around the world are looking at is: how do you accommodate increasing amounts of variable, renewable resources and just make better use of your grid assets,” she said.

“Hybrids, storage generation pairings, gives you that opportunity to deal with the variability of renewables, so to store electricity when the sun isn’t shining, or the wind isn’t blowing, and use it when you need it to.”

The small amount of storage already in the system provides more fine tuning of the electricity system, whereas 2,500 megawatts will be a more “foundational” part of the toolkit, said Sparkes.

But what’s currently on the grid is far from the only storage in the province. Many commercial and industrial consumers, such as large manufacturing facilities or downtown office buildings, are using storage to manage their electricity usage, relying on battery energy when prices are high.

The IESO sees that as an opportunity and has changed market rules to allow those customers to sell electricity back to the grid when needed.

As well, the IESO has its eye on the thousands of mobile batteries in electric vehicles, a trend seen in California, that shuttle people around the province every day but sit unused for much of the time.

“If we can enable those batteries to work together in aggregation, or work with other types of technologies like solar or smart building systems in a configuration, like a group of technologies, that becomes a virtual power plant,” Sparkes said.

Peak Power, a company that seeks to “make power plants obsolete,” is running a pilot project with electric vehicles in three downtown Toronto office buildings in which the car batteries can provide electricity to reduce the facility’s overall demand during peak periods using vehicle-to-building charging with bidirectional chargers.

In that model, one vehicle can earn $8,000 per year, said cofounder and chief operating officer Matthew Sachs.

“Battery energy storage will change the energy industry in the same way and for the same reasons that refrigeration changed the milk industry,” he said.

“As you had refrigeration, you could store your commodity and that changed the distribution channels of it. So I believe that energy storage is going to radically change the distribution channels of energy.”

If every home has a solar panel, an electric vehicle and a residential battery, it becomes a generating station, a decentralization that’s not only more environmentally friendly, but also relies less on “monopolized utilities,” Sachs said.

In the next decade, energy demand from electric vehicles is projected to skyrocket, making vehicle-to-grid integration increasingly relevant, and Sachs said the grid can’t grow enough to accommodate a peak demand of hundreds of thousands of vehicles being plugged in to charge at the end of the workday commute. Authorities need to be looking at more incentives such as time-of-use pricing and price signals to ensure the demand is evened out, he said.

“It’s a big risk as much as it’s a big opportunity,” he said. “If we do it wrong, it will cost us billions to fix. If we do it right, it can save us billions.”

Jack Gibbons, the chair of the Ontario Clean Air Alliance, said the provincial and federal governments need to fund and install bidirectional chargers in order to fully take advantage of electric vehicles.

“This is a huge missed opportunity,” he said.

 

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N.L., Ottawa agree to shield ratepayers from Muskrat Falls cost overruns

Muskrat Falls Financing Restructuring redirects megadam benefits to ratepayers, stabilizes electricity rates, and overhauls federal provincial loan guarantees for the hydro project, addressing cost overruns flagged by the Public Utilities Board in Newfoundland and Labrador.

 

Key Points

A revised funding model shifting benefits to ratepayers to curb rate hikes linked to Muskrat Falls cost overruns.

✅ Shields ratepayers from megadam cost overruns

✅ Revises federal provincial loan guarantees

✅ Targets stable electricity rates by 2021 and beyond

 

Ottawa and Newfoundland and Labrador say they will rewrite the financial structure of the Muskrat Falls hydro project to shield ratepayers from paying for the megadam's cost overruns.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Seamus O'Regan and Premier Dwight Ball announced Monday that their two governments would scrap the financial structure agreed upon in past federal-provincial loan agreements, moving to a model that redirects benefits, such as a lump sum credit, to ratepayers.

Both politicians called the announcement, which was light on dollar figures, a major milestone in easing residents' fears that electricity rates will spike sharply, as seen with Nova Scotia's debated 14% hike, when the over-budget dam comes fully online next year.
"We are in a far better place today thanks to this comprehensive plan," Ball said.

Ball has said the issue of electricity rates is a top priority for his government, and he has pledged to keep rates near existing levels, but rate mitigation talks with Ottawa have dragged on since April.

A report by the province's Public Utilities Board released Friday forecast an "unprecedented" 75 per cent increase in average domestic rates for island residents in 2021, while Nova Scotia's regulator approved a 14% hike, and reported concerns from industrial customers about their ability to remain competitive.

Costs of the Muskrat Falls megadam on Labrador's Lower Churchill River have ballooned to more than $12.7 billion since the project was approved in 2012, according to the latest estimate of Crown corporation Nalcor Energy.

The dam is set to produce more power than the province can sell. Its existing financial structure would have left electricity ratepayers paying for Muskrat Falls to make up the difference starting in 2021, an issue both governments said Monday has been resolved with the relaunch of financing talks.

"Essentially, you won't pay this on your monthly light bills," Ball said.

But details of how the project will meet financing requirements in coming decades to make up the gap in funds are still to be worked out.

Both Ball and O'Regan criticized previous governments for sanctioning the poorly planned development and again pledged their commitment to easing the burden on residents.

"We promised we would be there to help, and we will be," O'Regan said before announcing a "relaunch" of negotiations around the project's financial structure.

He did not say how much the new setup might cost the federal government, despite earlier federal funding commitments, stressing that the new focus will be on the project's long-term sustainability. "There's no single piece of policy ... that can resolve such a large and complicated mess," O'Regan said.

The two governments also said they will work towards electrifying federal buildings to reduce an anticipated power surplus in the province.

In the short term, the federal government said it would allow for "flexibility" in upcoming cash requirements related to debt servicing, allowing deferral of payments if necessary.

Ball said that flexibility was built in to ensure the plan would still be applicable if costs continue to rise before Muskrat Falls is commissioned.

Political opponents criticized Monday's plan as lacking detail.

"What I heard talked about was an agreement that in the future, there's going to be an agreement," said Progressive Conservative Leader Ches Crosbie. "This was an occasion to reassure people that there's a plan in place to make life here affordable, and I didn't see that happen today."

Others addressed the lingering questions about the project's final cost.

Nalcor's latest financial update has remained unchanged since 2017, though the Muskrat Falls project has seen additional delays related to staffing and software issues.

Dennis Browne, the province's consumer advocate, said the switch to a cost of service model is a significant move that will benefit ratepayers, but he said it's impossible to truly restructure the project while it's a work in progress. "We need to know what the figures are, and we don't have them," he said.

 

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Stellat'en and Innergex Sign Wind Deal with BC Hydro

Nithi Mountain Wind Project delivers 200 MW of renewable wind power in British Columbia under a BC Hydro electricity purchase deal, producing 600 GWh yearly, led by Stellat'en First Nation and Innergex.

 

Key Points

A 200 MW wind farm in British Columbia producing 600 GWh yearly, co-owned by Stellat'en First Nation and Innergex.

✅ 30-year BC Hydro take-or-pay PPA, CPI-indexed

✅ 200 MW capacity, ~600 GWh per year for ~60,000 homes

✅ 51% Stellat'en First Nation; operations targeted for 2030

 

In December 2024, a significant development unfolded in British Columbia's renewable energy sector, where the clean-energy regulatory process continues to evolve, as Stellat'en First Nation and Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. announced the signing of a 30-year electricity purchase agreement with BC Hydro. This agreement pertains to the Nithi Mountain Wind Project, a 200 MW initiative poised to enhance the province's clean energy capacity.

Project Overview

The Nithi Mountain Wind Project is a collaborative venture between Stellat'en First Nation, which holds a 51% stake, and Innergex Renewable Energy Inc., which holds a 49% stake. Located in the Bulkley-Nechako region of British Columbia, the project is expected to generate approximately 600 GWh of renewable electricity annually, comparable to other large-scale projects like the 280 MW wind farm in Alberta now online, sufficient to power around 60,000 homes. The wind farm is scheduled to commence commercial operations in 2030.

Economic and Community Impact

This partnership is anticipated to create approximately 150 job opportunities during the development, construction, and operational phases, thereby supporting local economic growth and workforce development, and aligns with recent federal green electricity procurement efforts that signal broader market support. The long-term electricity purchase agreement with BC Hydro is structured as a 30-year take-or-pay contract, indexed to a predefined percentage of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), ensuring financial stability and protection against inflation.

Environmental and Cultural Considerations

The Nithi Mountain Wind Project is being developed in close collaboration with First Nations in the area, guided by collaborative land-use planning. The project integrates cultural preservation, environmental stewardship, and economic empowerment for Indigenous communities in the Bulkley-Nechako region, while other solutions such as tidal energy for remote communities are also advancing across Canada. The project is committed to minimizing environmental impact by avoiding sensitive cultural and ecological resources and integrating sustainability at every stage, with remediation practices to restore the land, preserve cultural values, and enhance biodiversity and wildlife habitats if decommissioned.

Broader Implications

This agreement underscores a growing trend of collaboration between Indigenous communities, exemplified by the Ermineskin First Nation project emerging nationwide, and renewable energy developers in Canada. Such partnerships are instrumental in advancing sustainable energy projects that respect Indigenous rights and contribute to the nation's clean energy objectives, as renewable power developers find that diversified energy sources strengthen project outcomes. The Nithi Mountain Wind Project exemplifies how integrating traditional knowledge with modern renewable energy technologies can lead to mutually beneficial outcomes for both Indigenous communities and the broader society.

In summary, the Nithi Mountain Wind Project represents a significant step forward in British Columbia's renewable energy landscape, highlighting the importance of collaboration between Indigenous communities and renewable energy developers. The project promises substantial economic, environmental, and cultural benefits, setting a precedent for future partnerships in the clean energy sector, as large-scale storage acquisitions like Centrica's battery project illustrate complementary pathways to unlock wind potential.

 

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The Great Debate About Bitcoin's Huge Appetite For Electricity Determining Its Future

Bitcoin Energy Debate examines electricity usage, mining costs, environmental impact, and blockchain efficiency, weighing renewable power, carbon footprint, scalability, and transaction throughput to clarify stakeholder claims from Tesla, Square, academics, and policymakers.

 

Key Points

Debate on Bitcoin mining's power use, environmental impact, efficiency, and scalability versus alternative blockchains.

✅ Compares energy intensity with transaction throughput and system outputs.

✅ Weighs renewables, stranded power, and carbon footprint in mining.

✅ Assesses PoS blockchains, stablecoins, and scalability tradeoffs.

 

There is a great debate underway about the electricity required to process Bitcoin transactions. The debate is significant, the stakes are high, the views are diverse, and there are smart people on both sides. Bitcoin generates a lot of emotion, thereby producing too much heat and not enough light. In this post, I explain the importance of identifying the key issues in the debate, and of understanding the nature and extent of disagreement about how much electrical energy Bitcoin consumes.

Consider the background against which the debate is taking place. Because of its unstable price, Bitcoin cannot serve as a global mainstream medium of exchange. The instability is apparent. On January 1, 2021, Bitcoin’s dollar price was just over $29,000. Its price rose above $63,000 in mid-April, and then fell below $35,000, where it has traded recently. Now the financial media is asking whether we are about to experience another “cyber winter” as the prices of cryptocurrencies continue their dramatic declines.

Central banks warns of bubble on bitcoins as it skyrockets
As bitcoins skyrocket to more than $12 000 for one BTC, many central banks as ECB or US Federal ... [+] NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES
Bitcoin is a high sentiment beta asset, and unless that changes, Bitcoin cannot serve as a global mainstream medium of exchange. Being a high sentiment beta asset means that Bitcoin’s market price is driven much more by investor psychology than by underlying fundamentals.

As a general matter, high sentiment beta assets are difficult to value and difficult to arbitrage. Bitcoin qualifies in this regard. As a general matter, there is great disagreement among investors about the fair values of high sentiment beta assets. Bitcoin qualifies in this regard.

One major disagreement about Bitcoin involves the very high demand for electrical power associated with Bitcoin transaction processing, an issue that came to light several years ago. In recent months, the issue has surfaced again, in a drama featuring disagreement between two prominent industry leaders, Elon Musk (from Tesla and SpaceX) and Jack Dorsey (from Square).

On one side of the argument, Musk contends that Bitcoin’s great need for electrical power is detrimental to the environment, especially amid disruptions in U.S. coal and nuclear power that increase supply strain.  On the other side, Dorsey argues that Bitcoin’s electricity profile is a benefit to the environment, in part because it provides a reliable customer base for clean electric power. This might make sense, in the absence of other motives for generating clean power; however, it seems to me that there has been a surge in investment in alternative technologies for producing electricity that has nothing to do with cryptocurrency. So I am not sure that the argument is especially strong, but will leave it there. In any event, this is a demand side argument.

A supply side argument favoring Bitcoin is that the processing of Bitcoin transactions, known as “Bitcoin mining,” already uses clean electrical power, power which has already been produced, as in hydroelectric plants at night, but not otherwise consumed in an era of flat electricity demand across mature markets.

Both Musk and Dorsey are serious Bitcoin investors. Earlier this year, Tesla purchased $1.5 billion of Bitcoin, agreed to accept Bitcoin as payment for automobile sales, and then reversed itself. This reversal appears to have pricked an expanding Bitcoin bubble. Square is a digital transaction processing firm, and Bitcoin is part of its long-term strategy.

Consider two big questions at the heart of the digital revolution in finance. First, to what degree will blockchain replace conventional transaction technologies? Second, to what degree will competing blockchain based digital assets, which are more efficient than Bitcoin, overcome Bitcoin’s first mover advantage as the first cryptocurrency?

To gain some insight about possible answers to these questions, and the nature of the issues related to the disagreement between Dorsey and Musk, I emailed a series of academics and/or authors who have expertise in blockchain technology.

David Yermack, a financial economist at New York University, has written and lectured extensively on blockchains. In 2019, Yermack wrote the following: “While Bitcoin and successor cryptocurrencies have grown remarkably, data indicates that many of their users have not tried to participate in the mainstream financial system. Instead they have deliberately avoided it in order to transact in black markets for drugs and other contraband … or evade capital controls in countries such as China.” In this regard, cyber-criminals demanding ransom for locking up their targets information systems often require payment in Bitcoin. Recent examples of cyber-criminal activity are not difficult to find, such as incidents involving Kaseya and Colonial Pipeline.

David Yermack continues: “However, the potential benefits of blockchain for improving data security and solving moral hazard problems throughout the financial system have become widely apparent as cryptocurrencies have grown.” In his recent correspondence with me, he argues that the electrical power issue associated with Bitcoin “mining,” is relatively minor because Bitcoin miners are incentivized to seek out cheap electric power, and patterns shifted as COVID-19 changed U.S. electricity consumption across sectors.

Thomas Philippon, also a financial economist at NYU, has done important work characterizing the impact of technology on the resource requirements of the financial sector. He has argued that historically, the financial sector has comprised about 6-to-7% of the economy on average, with variability over time. Unit costs, as a percentage of assets, have consistently been about 2%, even with technological advances. In respect to Bitcoin, he writes in his correspondence with me that Bitcoin is too energy inefficient to generate net positive social benefits, and that energy crisis pressures on U.S. electricity and fuels complicate the picture, but acknowledges that over time positive benefits might be possible.

Emin Gün Sirer is a computer scientist at Cornell University, whose venture AVA Labs has been developing alternative blockchain technology for the financial sector. In his correspondence with me, he writes that he rejects the argument that Bitcoin will spur investment in renewable energy relative to other stimuli. He also questions the social value of maintaining a fairly centralized ledger largely created by miners that had been in China and are now migrating to other locations such as El Salvador.

Bob Seeman is an engineer, lawyer, and businessman, who has written a book entitled Bitcoin: The Mother of All Scams. In his correspondence with me, he writes that his professional experience with Bitcoin led him to conclude that Bitcoin is nothing more than unlicensed gambling, a point he makes in his book.

David Gautschi is an academic at Fordham University with expertise in global energy. I asked him about studies that compare Bitcoin’s use of energy with that of the U.S. financial sector. In correspondence with me, he cautioned that the issues are complex, and noted that online technology generally consumes a lot of power, with electricity demand during COVID-19 highlighting shifting load profiles.

My question to David Gautschi was prompted by a study undertaken by the cryptocurrency firm Galaxy Digital. This study found that the financial sector together with the gold industry consumes twice as much electrical power as Bitcoin transaction processing. The claim by Galaxy is that Bitcoin’s electrical power needs are “at least two times lower than the total energy consumed by the banking system as well as the gold industry on an annual basis.”

Galaxy’s analysis is detailed and bottom up based. In order to assess the plausibility of its claims, I did a rough top down analysis whose results were roughly consistent with the claims in the Galaxy study. For sake of disclosure, I placed the heuristic calculations I ran in a footnote.1 If we accept the Galaxy numbers, there remains the question of understanding the outputs produced by the electrical consumption associated with both Bitcoin mining and U.S. banks’ production of financial services. I did not see that the Galaxy study addresses the output issue, and it is important.

Consider some quick statistics which relate to the issue of outputs. The total market for global financial services was about $20 trillion in 2020. The number of Bitcoin transactions processed per day was about 330,000 in December 2020, and about 400,000 in January 2021. The corresponding number for Bitcoin’s digital rival Ethereum during this time was about 1.1 million transactions per day. In contrast, the global number of credit card transactions per day in 2018 was about 1 billion.2

Bitcoin Value Falls
LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 20: A visual representation of the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum ... [+] GETTY IMAGES
These numbers tell us that Bitcoin transactions comprise a small share, on the order of 0.04%, of global transactions, but use something like a third of the electricity needed for these transactions. That said, the associated costs of processing Bitcoin transactions relate to tying blocks of transactions together in a blockchain, not to the number of transactions. Nevertheless, even if the financial sector does indeed consume twice as much electrical power as Bitcoin, the disparity between Bitcoin and traditional financial technology is striking, and the experience of Texas grid reliability underscores system constraints when it comes to output relative to input.  This, I suggest, weakens the argument that Bitcoin’s electricity demand profile is inconsequential because Bitcoin mining uses slack electricity.

A big question is how much electrical power Bitcoin mining would require, if Bitcoin were to capture a major share of the transactions involved in world commerce. Certainly much more than it does today; but how much more?

Given that Bitcoin is a high sentiment beta asset, there will be a lot of disagreement about the answers to these two questions. Eventually we might get answers.

At the same time, a high sentiment beta asset is ill suited to being a medium of exchange and a store of value. This is why stablecoins have emerged, such as Diem, Tether, USD Coin, and Dai. Increased use of these stable alternatives might prevent Bitcoin from ever achieving a major share of the transactions involved in world commerce.

We shall see what the future brings. Certainly El Salvador’s recent decision to make Bitcoin its legal tender, and to become a leader in Bitcoin mining, is something to watch carefully. Just keep in mind that there is significant downside to experiencing foreign exchange rate volatility. This is why global financial institutions such as the World Bank and IMF do not support El Salvador’s decision; and as I keep saying, Bitcoin is a very high sentiment beta asset.

In the past I suggested that Bitcoin bubble would burst when Bitcoin investors conclude that its associated processing is too energy inefficient. Of course, many Bitcoin investors are passionate devotees, who are vulnerable to the psychological bias known as motivated reasoning. Motivated reasoning-based sentiment, featuring denial,3 can keep a bubble from bursting, or generate a series of bubbles, a pattern we can see from Bitcoin’s history.

I find the argument that Bitcoin is necessary to provide the right incentives for the development of clean alternatives for generating electricity to be interesting, but less than compelling. Are there no other incentives, such as evolving utility trends, or more efficient blockchain technologies? Bitcoin does have a first mover advantage relative to other cryptocurrencies. I just think we need to be concerned about getting locked into an technologically inferior solution because of switching costs.

There is an argument to made that decisions, such as how to use electric power, are made in markets with self-interested agents properly evaluating the tradeoffs. That said, think about why most of the world adopted the Windows operating system in the 1980s over the superior Mac operating system offered by Apple. Yes, we left it to markets to determine the outcome. People did make choices; and it took years for Windows to catch up with the Mac’s operating system.

My experience as a behavioral economist has taught me that the world is far from perfect, to expect to be surprised, and to expect people to make mistakes. We shall see what happens with Bitcoin going forward.

As things stand now, Bitcoin is well suited as an asset for fulfilling some people’s urge to engage in high stakes gambling. Indeed, many people have a strong need to engage in gambling. Last year, per capita expenditure on lottery tickets in Massachusetts was the highest in the U.S. at over $930.

High sentiment beta assets offer lottery-like payoffs. While Bitcoin certainly does a good job of that, it cannot simultaneously serve as an effective medium of exchange and reliable store of value, even setting aside the issue at the heart of the electricity debate.

 

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Germany is first major economy to phase out coal and nuclear

Germany Coal Phase-Out 2038 advances the energy transition, curbing lignite emissions while scaling renewable energy, carbon pricing, and hydrogen storage amid a nuclear phase-out and regional just-transition funding for miners and communities.

 

Key Points

Germany's plan to end coal by 2038, fund regional transition, and scale renewable energy while exiting nuclear.

✅ Closes last coal plant by 2038; reviews may accelerate.

✅ 40b euros aid for lignite regions and workforce.

✅ Emphasizes renewables, hydrogen, carbon pricing reforms.

 

German lawmakers have finalized the country's long-awaited phase-out of coal as an energy source, backing a plan that environmental groups say isn't ambitious enough and free marketeers criticize as a waste of taxpayers' money.

Bills approved by both houses of parliament Friday envision shutting down the last coal-fired power plant by 2038 and spending some 40 billion euros ($45 billion) to help affected regions cope with the transition, which has been complicated by grid expansion woes in recent years.

The plan is part of Germany's `energy transition' - an effort to wean Europe's biggest economy off planet-warming fossil fuels and generate all of the country's considerable energy needs from renewable sources. Achieving that goal is made harder than in comparable countries such as France and Britain because of Germany's existing commitment to also phase out nuclear power entirely by the end of 2022.

"The days of coal are numbered in Germany," Environment Minister Svenja Schulze said. "Germany is the first industrialized country that leaves behind both nuclear energy and coal."

Greenpeace and other environmental groups have staged vocal protests against the plan, including by dropping a banner down the front of the Reichstag building Friday. They argue that the government's road map won't reduce Germany's greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to meet the targets set out in the Paris climate accord.

"Germany, the country that burns the greatest amount of lignite coal worldwide, will burden the next generation with 18 more years of carbon dioxide," Greenpeace Germany's executive director Martin Kaiser told The Associated Press.

Kaiser, who was part of a government-appointed expert commission, accused Chancellor Angela Merkel of making a "historic mistake," saying an end date for coal of 2030 would have sent a strong signal for European and global climate policy. Merkel has said she wants Europe to be the first continent to end its greenhouse gas emissions, by 2050, even as some in Berlin debate a possible nuclear U-turn to reach that goal faster.

Germany closed its last black coal mine in 2018, but it continues to import the fuel and extract its own reserves of lignite, a brownish coal that is abundant in the west and east of the country, and generates about a third of its electricity from coal in recent years. Officials warn that the loss of mining jobs could hurt those economically fragile regions, though efforts are already under way to turn the vast lignite mines into nature reserves and lakeside resorts.

Schulze, the environment minister, said there would be regular government reviews to examine whether the end date for coal can be brought forward, even as Berlin temporarily extended nuclear operations during the energy crisis. She noted that by the end of 2022, eight of the country's most polluting coal-fired plants will have already been closed.

Environmentalists have also criticized the large sums being offered to coal companies to shut down their plants, a complaint shared by libertarians such as Germany's opposition Free Democratic Party.

Katja Suding, a leading FDP lawmaker, said the government should have opted to expand existing emissions trading systems that put a price on carbon, thereby encouraging operators to shut down unprofitable coal plants.

Katja Suding, a leading FDP lawmaker, said the government should have opted to expand existing emissions trading systems, rather than banking on a nuclear option, that put a price on carbon, thereby encouraging operators to shut down unprofitable coal plants.

"You just have to make it so expensive that it's not profitable anymore to turn coal into electricity," she said.

This week, utility companies in Spain shut down seven of the country's 15 coal-fired power plants, saying they couldn't be operated at profit without government subsidies.

But the head of Germany's main miners' union, Michael Vassiliadis, welcomed the decision, calling it a "historic milestone." He urged the government to focus next on an expansion of renewable energy generation and the use of hydrogen as a clean alternative for storing and transporting energy in the future, amid arguments that nuclear won't fix the gas crunch in the near term.

 

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Salmon and electricity at center of Columbia River treaty negotiations

Columbia River Treaty Negotiations involve Canada-U.S. talks on B.C. dams, flood control, hydropower sharing, and downstream benefits, prioritizing ecosystem health, First Nations rights, and salmon restoration while balancing affordable electricity for northwest consumers.

 

Key Points

Talks to update flood control, hydropower, and ecosystem terms for fair benefits to B.C. and U.S. communities.

✅ Public consultations across B.C.'s Columbia Basin

✅ First Nations priorities include salmon restoration

✅ U.S. seeks cheaper power; B.C. defends downstream benefits

 

With talks underway between Canada and the U.S. on the future of the Columbia River Treaty, the B.C. New Democrats have launched public consultations in the region most affected by the high-stakes negotiation.

“We want to ensure Columbia basin communities are consulted, kept informed and have their voices heard,” said provincial cabinet minister Katrine Conroy via a press release announcing meetings this month in Castlegar, Golden, Revelstoke, Nakusp, Nelson and other communities.

As well as having cabinet responsibility for the talks, Conroy’s Kootenay West riding includes several places that were inundated under the terms of the 1964 flood control and power generation treaty.

“We will continue to work closely with First Nations affected by the treaty, to ensure Indigenous interests are reflected in the negotiations,” she added by way of consolation to Indigenous people who’ve been excluded from the negotiating teams on both sides of the border.

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The stakes are also significant for the province as a whole. The basics of the treaty saw B.C. build dams to store water on this side of the border, easing the flood risk in the U.S. and allowing the flow to be evened out through the year. In exchange, B.C. was entitled to a share of the additional hydro power that could be generated in dams on the U.S. side.

B.C.’s sale of those downstream benefits to the U.S has poured almost $1.4 billion into provincial coffers over the past 10 years, albeit at a declining rate these days amid scrutiny from a regulator report on BC Hydro that raised concerns, because of depressed prices for cross-border electricity sales.

Politicians on the U.S. side have long sought to reopen the treaty, believing there was now a case for reducing B.C.’s entitlement.

They did not get across the threshold under President Barack Obama.

Then, last fall his successor Donald Trump served notice of intent, initiating the formal negotiations that commenced with a two day session last week in Washington, D.C. The next round is set for mid-August in B.C.

American objectives in the talks include “continued, careful management of flood risk; ensuring a reliable and economical power supply; and better addressing ecosystem concerns,” with recognition of recent BC Hydro demand declines during the pandemic.

“Economical power supply,” being a diplomatic euphemism for “cheaper electricity for consumers in the northwest states,” achievable by clawing back most of B.C.’s treaty entitlement.

On taking office last summer, the NDP inherited a 14-point statement of principles setting out B.C. hopes for negotiations to “continue the treaty” while “seeking improvements within the existing framework” of the 54-year-old agreement.

The New Democrats have endorsed those principles in a spirit of bipartisanship, even as Manitoba Hydro governance disputes play out elsewhere in Canada.

“Those principles were developed with consultation from throughout the region,” as Conroy advised the legislature this spring. “So I was involved, as well, in the process and knew what the issues were, right as they would come up.”

The New Democrats did chose to put additional emphasis on some concerns.

“There is an increase in discussion with Canada and First Nations on the return of salmon to the river,” she advised the house, recalling how construction of the enormous Grand Coulee Dam on the U.S. side in the 1930s wiped out salmon runs on the upper Columbia River.

“There was no consideration then for how incredibly important salmon was, especially to the First Nations people in our region. We have an advisory table that is made up of Indigenous representation from our region, and also we are discussing with Canada that we need to see if there’s feasibility here.”

As to feasibility, the obstacles to salmon migration in the upper reaches of the Columbia include the 168-metre high Grand Coulee and the 72-metre Chief Joseph dams on the U.S. side, plus the Keenleyside (52 metres), Revelstoke (175 metres) and Mica (240 metres) dams on the Canadian side.

Still, says Conroy “the First Nations from Canada and the tribes from the United States, have been working on scientific and technical documents and research to see if, first of all, the salmon can come up, how they can come up, and what the things are that have to be done to ensure that happens.”

The New Democrats also put more emphasis on preserving the ecosystem, aligning with clean-energy efforts with First Nations that support regional sustainability.

“I know that certainly didn’t happen in 1964, but that is something that’s very much on the minds of people in the Columbia basin,” said Conroy. “If we are going to tweak the treaty, what can we do to make sure the voices of the basin are heard and that things that were under no consideration in the ’60s are now a topic for consideration?”

With those new considerations, there’s still the status quo concern of preserving the downstream benefits as a trade off for the flooding and other impacts on this side of the border.

The B.C. position on that score is the same under the New Democrats as it was under the Liberals, despite a B.C. auditor general report on deferred BC Hydro costs.

“The level of benefits to B.C., which is currently solely in the form of the (electricity) entitlement, does not account for the full range of benefits in the U.S. or the impacts in B.C.,” says the statement of principle.

“All downstream U.S. benefits such as flood risk management, hydropower, ecosystems, water supply (including municipal, industrial and agricultural uses), recreation, navigation and other related benefits should be accounted for and such value created should be shared equitably between the two countries.”

No surprise if the Americans do not see it the same way.  But that is a topic for another day.

 

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