Huge solar plant in the works

U.S. Hybrid Vehicle Sales Outlook highlights rising hybrid demand as an EV bridge, driven by emissions rules, range anxiety, charging infrastructure gaps, and automaker strategies from Ford, Toyota, and Stellantis across U.S. markets.

Key Points

Forecast of U.S. hybrid sales shaped by EV adoption, emissions rules, charging access, and automaker strategies.

✅ S&P sees hybrids at 24% of U.S. sales by 2028

✅ Bridges ICE to EV amid range and charging concerns

✅ Ford, Toyota, Stellantis expand U.S. hybrid lineups

Hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles may not be dying as fast as some predicted in the auto sector’s rush to develop all-electric models.

Ford Motor is the latest of several top automakers, including Toyota and Stellantis, planning to build and sell hundreds of thousands of hybrid vehicles in the U.S. over the next five years, industry forecasters told Reuters.

The companies are pitching hybrids as an alternative for retail and commercial customers who are seeking more sustainable transportation, but may not be ready to make the leap to a full electric vehicle.

"Hybrids really serve a lot of America," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at New York-based investment manager Ingalls & Snyder. "Hybrid is a great alternative to a pure electric vehicle (and) it's an easier sell to a lot of customers."

Interest in hybrids is rebounding as consumer demand for pure electrics has not accelerated as quickly as expected, with EV market share dipping in Q1 2024 according to some analyses. Surveys cite a variety of reasons for tepid EV demand, from high initial cost and concerns about range to lengthy charging times and a shortage of public charging infrastructure in many regions.

“With the tightening of emissions requirements, hybrids provide a cleaner fleet without requiring buyers to take the leap into pure electrics,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president at AutoForecast Solutions.

S&P Global Mobility estimates hybrids will more than triple over the next five years, accounting for 24% of U.S. new vehicle sales in 2028. Sales of pure electrics will claim about 37%, supported by strong U.S. EV sales into 2024 momentum, leaving combustion vehicles — including so-called “mild” hybrids — with a nearly 40% share.

S&P estimates hybrids will account for just 7% of U.S. sales this year, and pure electrics 9%, underscoring that EV sales still lag gas cars as internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles take more than 80%.

Historically, hybrids have accounted for less than 10% of total U.S. sales, with Toyota’s long-running Prius among the most popular models. The Japanese automaker has consistently said hybrids will play a key role in the company's long-range electrification plans as it slowly ramps up investment in pure EVs.

Ford is the latest to roll out more aggressive hybrid plans. On its second-quarter earnings call in late July, Chief Executive Jim Farley surprised analysts, saying Ford expects to quadruple its hybrid sales over the next five years after earlier promising an aggressive push into all-electric vehicles.

“This transition to EVs will be dynamic,” Farley told analysts. “We expect the EV market to remain volatile until the winners and losers shake out.”

Among Ford’s competitors, General Motors appears to have little interest in hybrids in the U.S., while Stellantis will follow Toyota and Ford’s hedge by offering U.S. buyers a choice of different powertrains, including hybrids, until sales of pure electric vehicles start to take off after mid-decade, a potential EV inflection point according to forecaster GlobalData.

In a statement, GM said it, echoing leadership's view that EVs won't go mainstream until key issues are addressed, "continues to be committed to its all-electric future ... While we will have hybrid vehicles in our global fleet, our focus remains on transitioning our portfolio to electric by 2030.”

Stellantis said hybrids now account for 36% of Jeep Wrangler sales and 19% of Chrysler Pacifica sales. In addition to new pure electric models coming soon, "we are very bullish on hybrids going forward," a spokesperson said.

This year, manufacturers are marketing more than 60 hybrids in the U.S. Toyota and its premium Lexus brand are selling at least 18 different hybrid models, enabling the Japanese automaker to maintain its stranglehold on the sector.

Hyundai and sister brand Kia offer seven hybrid models, with Ford and Lincoln six. Stellantis offers just three, and GM’s sole entry, due out later this year, is a hybrid version of the Chevrolet Corvette sports car.

But hybrids remain in short supply at many U.S. dealerships.

Andrew DiFeo, dealer principal at Hyundai of St. Augustine, south of Jacksonville, FL, doesn't see EV adoption hitting the levels the Biden administration wants until EV charging networks are as ubiquitous as gas stations.

"Hybrids are a great bridge to whatever the future holds,” said DiFeo, adding, “I've got zero in stock (and) I've got customers that want all of them."

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• EV Infrastructure News

India Village Electrification hailed by the IEA in World Energy Outlook 2018 showcases rapid energy access progress, universal village power, clean cooking advances via LPG, and Modi-led initiatives, inspiring Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Key Points

A national push to power every Indian village, praised by the IEA for boosting energy access and clean cooking.

✅ Electrified 597,464 villages ahead of schedule in April 2018.

✅ IEA hails India in World Energy Outlook 2018 as star performer.

✅ LPG connections surge via Ujjwala, aiding clean cooking access.

The global energy watchdog International Energy Agency (IEA) has called India's electrification of every village the greatest success story of 2018. In its latest report, World Energy Outlook 2018, the IEA has called India a "star performer" in terms of achieving the big milestone of the providing power to each village. "In particular, one of the greatest success stories in access to energy in 2018 was India completing the electrification of all of its villages," said the IEA. It added that countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh have also achieved the commendable electrification rate of 95% (up from 50% in 2000), and 80% (up from 20% in 2000), respectively, even as Europe's electrification push continues as part of broader transitions.

This 643-page report by the IEA says over 120 million people worldwide gained access to electricity in 2017 and charts growth in the electric car market as part of broader energy trends. For the first time ever, the total number of people without access fell below 1 billion, it said.  The mega plan of providing electricity to 597,464 villages in India was announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his Independence Day speech in 2015. On April 28, 2018, PM Modi confirmed that India had achieved its goal ahead of schedule. "This is one of the greatest achievements in the history of energy," said the IEA.

Praising the Narendra Modi government for making efforts towards lighting up every village in India, the agency said: "Since 2000 around half a billion people have gained access to electricity in India, with political effort over the last five years significantly accelerating progress."

India's achievement of providing universal household electricity access will improve the lives of over 230 million people, said the IEA, even as analyses like a Swedfund report debate some poverty outcomes in electrified areas. For a start, electric lighting makes the use of candles, kerosene and other polluting fuels for lighting redundant, not only saving money (and providing more light) but also seriously improving health, it said.

Though the global energy agency has called India "a success story", and a "bright spot for energy access", it says huge challenges remain in other regions of the world where over 670 million people still live without electricity access. "90% of these people are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, with countries such as Nigeria facing severe shortages," said the report.

Seven decades after independence and nearly three decades after India's economic liberalisation, the Modi government achieved the historic milestone of giving power to every single village of India, 12 days ahead of the deadline set by PM Modi. Leisang in Manipur became the last village to be connected to the grid, while a Delhi energy storage project explores ways to balance supply and demand.

The agency also praised India for tackling a related problem: access to clean cooking facilities. "While an estimated 780 million people in India rely on biomass for cooking, progress is emerging, as India is one of the few countries in the world targeting this "blind spot" of energy policy," it said.

Around 36 million LPG connections have been made since Prime Minister Modi and Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Dharmendra Pradhan, launched the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana scheme in May 2016 to provide free connections to families living below the poverty line. In India, around 50 million free LPG stoves and initial refills have been provided to poor households via this scheme since 2015. The government has set a target of providing LPG connections to 80 million households by 2020.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• EV Infrastructure News

Duke Energy Carolinas Solar RFP draws 3.9 GW of utility-scale bids, oversubscribed in DEP and DEC, below avoided cost rates, minimal battery storage, strict PPA terms, and interconnection challenges across North and South Carolina.

Key Points

Utility-scale solar procurement in DEC and DEP, evaluated against avoided cost, with few storage bids and PPA terms.

✅ 3.9 GW bids for 680 MW; DEP most oversubscribed

✅ Most projects 7-80 MWac; few include battery storage

✅ Bids must price below 20-year avoided cost estimate

Last week the independent administrator for Duke’s 680 MW solar solicitation revealed data about the projects which have bid in response to the offer, showing a massive amount of interest in the opportunity.

Overall, 18 individuals submitted bids for projects in Duke Energy Carolinas (DEC) territory and 10 in Duke Energy Progress (DEP), with a total of more than 3.9 GW of proposals – more nearly 6x the available volume. DEP was relatively more over-subscribed, with 1.2 GWac of projects vying for only 80 MW of available capacity.

This is despite a requirement that such projects come in below the estimate of Duke’s avoided cost for the next 20 years, and amid changes in solar compensation that could affect project economics. Individual projects varied in capacity from 7-80 MWac, with most coming within the upper portion of that range.

These bids will be evaluated in the spring of 2019, and as Duke Energy Renewables continues to expand its portfolio, Duke Energy Communications Manager Randy Wheeless says he expects the plants to come online in a year or two.

Lack of storage

Despite recent trends in affordable batteries, of the 78 bids that came in only four included integrated battery storage. Tyler Norris, Cypress Creek Renewables’ market lead for North Carolina, says that this reflects that the methodology used is not properly valuing storage.

“The lack of storage in these bids is a missed opportunity for the state, and it reflects a poorly designed avoided cost rate structure that improperly values storage resources, commercially unreasonable PPA provisions, and unfavorable interconnection treatment toward independent storage,” Norris told pv magazine.

“We’re hopeful that these issues will be addressed in the second RFP tranche and in the current regulatory proceedings on avoided cost and state interconnection standards and grid upgrades across the region.”

Limited volume for North Carolina?

Another curious feature of the bids is that nearly the same volume of solar has been proposed for South Carolina as North Carolina – despite this solicitation being in response to a North Carolina law and ongoing legal disputes such as a church solar case that challenged the state’s monopoly model.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Renewable Energy News

OEB Hydro One Rate Decision 2023-2027 sets approved transmission and distribution rates in Ontario, with a settlement reducing revenue requirement, modest bill impacts, higher productivity factors, inflation certainty, DVA credits, and First Nations participation measures.

Key Points

OEB-approved Hydro One 2023-2027 transmission and distribution rates settlement, lowering costs and limiting bill impacts.

✅ $482.7M revenue reductions vs. original proposal

✅ Avg bill impact: +$0.69 trans., +$2.43 distr. per month

✅ Faster DVA refunds; productivity and efficiency incentives

The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) issued its Decision and Order on an application filed by Hydro One Networks Inc. (Hydro One) on August 5, 2021 seeking approval for changes to the rates it charges for electricity transmission and distribution, beginning January 1, 2023 and for each subsequent year through to December 31, 2027. 

The proceeding resulted in the filing of a settlement proposal that the OEB has now approved after concluding that it is in the public interest. 

The negotiated reductions in Hydro One's transmission and distribution revenue requirements over the 2023 to 2027 period total $482.7 million compared to the requests made by Hydro One in its application.

The OEB found that the reductions in Hydro One's proposed capital expenditure and operating, maintenance and administration costs were reasonable, and should not compromise the safety and reliability of Hydro One's transmission and distribution systems. It also concluded that the estimated bill impacts for both transmission and distribution customers are reasonable, and that the January 1, 2023 implementation and effective date of the new rates is appropriate.

In the broader Canadian context, pressures on utility finances at other companies, such as Manitoba Hydro's debt provide additional background for stakeholders.

Bill Impacts

This proceeding related to both transmission and distribution operations.

Transmission

The new transmission revenue requirement will affect Ontario electricity consumers across the province because it will be incorporated into updated transmission rates, which are paid by electricity distributors and other large consumers connected directly to the transmission system, and distributors then pass this cost on to their customers.

As a result of the settlement approved on the transmission portion of the application, it is estimated that for a typical Hydro One residential customer with a monthly consumption of 750 kWh, the total bill impact averaged over the 2023-2027 period will be an increase of $0.69 per month or 0.5%, which follows the 2021 electricity rate reductions that affected many businesses.

Distribution

The new OEB-approved distribution rates will affect Hydro One's distribution customers, including areas served through acquisitions such as the Peterborough Distribution sale which expanded its customer base.

As a result of the settlement reached on the distribution portion of the application, it is estimated that for a typical residential distribution customer of Hydro One with a monthly consumption of 750 kWh, the total bill impact averaged over the 2023-2027 period will be an increase of $2.43 per month or 1.5%.
This proceeding included 24 approved intervenors representing a wide variety of customer classes and other interests. Representatives of 18 of those intervenors participated in the settlement conference. Having this diversity of perspective enriches the already thorough examination of evidence and argument that the OEB routinely undertakes when considering an application.

Other features of the settlement proposal include:

• A commitment by Hydro One to include, in future operational and capital investment plans, a discussion of how the proposed spending will directly support the achievement of Hydro One's climate change policy.
• Eliminating further updates to reflect changes to inflation in 2022 and 2023 as originally proposed, to provide Hydro One's customers with greater certainty as to the potential impacts of inflation on their bills.
• Increases in the productivity factors and supplemental stretch factors for both the distribution and transmission business segments which will provide Hydro One with additional incentives to achieve greater efficiencies during the 2023 to 2027 period.
• Undertaking certain measures to seek economic participation or equity investment opportunities from First Nations.
• Disposition of net credit balances in deferral and variance accounts (DVAs) owed to customers will be returned over a shorter period of time:
• Transmission DVA – $22.5M over a one-year period in 2023 (versus five years)
• Distribution DVA – $85.9M over a three-year period – 2023-2025 (versus five years)
• Undertaking certain measures to continue examining cost-effective transmission and distribution line losses
• In the decision, the OEB acknowledged the efforts involved by parties to participate in this entire proceeding, including the settlement conference, considering the number of participants, the complexity of the issues, and the challenging logistics of a "virtual" proceeding. The OEB commended the parties and OEB staff for achieving a comprehensive settlement on all issues.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• T&D Business News

BC Hydro COVID-19 Site C updates detail monitoring, self-isolation at the work camp, Northern Health coordination, social distancing, reduced staffing, progress on diversion tunnels, Highway 29 realignment, and public reports to Peace River Regional District.

Key Points

Regular reports on COVID-19 monitoring, isolation protocols, staffing, and Site C work with Northern Health.

✅ Daily updates to Peace River Regional District

✅ Isolation rooms reserved in camp dorms

✅ Construction continues with social distancing

BC Hydro says it will begin giving regular updates to the public and the Peace River Regional District about its monitoring of the coronavirus COVID-19 at Site C, reflecting broader industry alerts such as a U.S. grid warning on pandemic risks.

BC Hydro met with the Peace River Regional District Sunday via phone call to discuss the forthcoming measures.

"We did a make a commitment to provide regular updates to Peace River Regional District member communities on an ongoing basis," said spokesman Dave Conway.

"(It's) certainly one of the things that we heard that they want and we heard that strongly and repeatedly."

Conway said updates could be posted as early as Monday on BC Hydro's website for the project.

As of March 23, there were sixteen people in self-isolation at the work camp just outside Fort St. John. Conway did not know how many of the workers have been tested for the virus, but said there are no confirmed cases on site. Provincial guidelines are being followed, he said.

"If they show any of the following symptoms, so sneezing, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches, coughs, or difficulty breathing, they're isolated for 14 days," Conway said.

"We're being very cautious of our application of the guidelines. We're asking anybody to self isolate if they have any slight symptoms."

BC Hydro has set aside one 30-room dorm at the camp for workers who need to isolate themselves, similar to measures in other jurisdictions where the power industry may house staff on-site to maintain operations, and has another four dorms with another 120 rooms that can be used as necessary. Conway could not immediately say whether additional rooms at hotels or at its apartment block have also been reserved.

There have been  700 workers home since a scale-back in construction was announced on March 18, and more workers are expected to be sent home this week. There were 940 people in camp on March 23, Conway said.

"To put that into perspective, the number of people staying in camp at this time of year, based on previous years, usually averages around 1,700," Conway said.

Brad Sperling, board chair for the Peace River Regional District, said BC Hydro has committed to formulating a strategy over the next few days to keep local government and public informed.

Electoral director Karen Goodings said she was pleased by that, and that it's important to everyone that BC Hydro works with Northern Health and adheres to provincial guidelines.

"The senior governments are critical to what measures will be undertaken not only on the project, including the camp, but also on the rules around transportation of workers and on addressing workplace conduct investigations at other utilities," Goodings wrote in an email.

On Sunday, the Site C leisure bus was seen at Totem Mall with two passengers on board.

Conway said the ongoing use of the shuttle is being monitored and evaluated, and is operating under social distancing and extra cleaning guidelines aligned with public transportation changes that have come under BC Transit.

The bus makes 10 trips per day from the camp, with an average of two passengers per trip, Conway said.

"We still have, of course, people in camp, and it's an opportunity for guests to get out and go for a walk and re-provision themselves for essentials for personal needs," Conway said.

Construction of the river diversion tunnels continues to meet a fall deadline, while work also carries on to realign Highway 29, build the transmission line, and clear the valley and future reservoir. Other site security and environmental monitoring work also continues, as utilities confront a dangerous dam-climbing trend driven by social media.

BC Hydro has said measures have been put into place, amid concerns similar to those voiced by nuclear plant workers about precautions at industrial sites, to minimize the potential spread of the COVID-19 on site, such as closing the camp gym and theatre, eliminating self serve dining stations, as well as non-essential travel, tours, and meetings.

Some workers, however, have raised worries about the tight working conditions on site, noting field safety incidents that highlight risks in the sector.

The province announced Monday 48 new cases in B.C., including one more in the Northern Health region, bringing the region's total to five, while Saskatchewan's numbers show how the crisis has reshaped that province. Their precise whereabouts are not being reported by B.C. public health officials.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Workforce Safety News

Alaska Coal-Fired CHP Plant opens near Usibelli mine, supplying electricity and district heat to UAF; remote location without gas pipelines, low wind and solar potential, and high heating demand shaped fuel choice.

Key Points

A 17 MW coal CHP at UAF producing power and campus heat, chosen for remoteness and lack of gas pipelines.

✅ 17 MW generator supplying electricity and district heat

✅ Near Usibelli mine; limited pipeline access shapes fuel

✅ Alternative options like LNG, wind, solar not cost-effective

One way to boost coal in the US: Find a spot near a mine with no access to oil or natural gas pipelines, where it’s not particularly windy and it’s dark much of the year.

That’s how the first coal-fired plant to open in the U.S. since 2015 bucked the trend in an industry that’s seen scores of facilities close in recent years. A 17-megawatt generator, built for $245 million, is set to open in April at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, just 100 miles from the state’s only coal mine.

“Geography really drove what options are available to us,” said Kari Burrell, the university’s vice chancellor for administrative services, in an interview. “We are not saying this is ideal by any means.”

The new plant is arriving as coal fuels about 25 percent of electrical generation in the U.S., down from 45 percent a decade earlier, even as some forecasts point to a near-term increase in coal-fired generation in 2021. A near-record 18 coal plants closed in 2018, and 14 more are expected to follow this year, according to BloombergNEF.

The biggest bright spot for U.S. coal miners recently has been exports to overseas power plants. At home, one of the few growth areas has been in pizza ovens.

There are a handful of other U.S. coal power projects that have been proposed, including plans to build an 850 megawatt facility in Georgia and an 895 megawatt plant in Kansas, even as a Minnesota utility reports declining coal returns across parts of its portfolio. But Ashley Burke, a spokeswoman for the National Mining Association, said she’s unaware of any U.S. plants actively under development besides the one in Alaska.

Future of power

“The future of power in the U.S. does not include coal,” Tessie Petion, an analyst for HSBC Holdings Plc, said in a research note, a view echoed by regions such as Alberta retiring coal power early in their transition.

Fairbanks sits on the banks of the Chena River, amid the vast subarctic forests in the heart of Alaska. The oil and gas fields of the state’s North slope are 500 miles north. The nearest major port is in Anchorage, 350 miles south.

The university’s new plant is a combined heat and power generator, which will create steam both to generate electricity and heat campus buildings. Before opting for coal, the school looked into using liquid natural gas, wind and solar, bio-mass and a host of other options, as new projects in Southeast Alaska seek lower electricity costs across the region. None of them penciled out, said Mike Ruckhaus, a senior project manager at the university.

The project, financed with university and state-municipal bonds, replaces a coal plant that went into service in 1964. University spokeswoman Marmian Grimes said it’s worth noting that the new plant will emit fewer emissions.

The coal will come from Usibelli Coal Mine Inc., a family-owned business that produces between 1.2 and 2 million tons per year from a mine along the Alaska railroad, according to the company’s website.

While any new plant is good news for coal miners, Clarksons Platou Securities Inc. analyst Jeremy Sussman said this one is "an isolated situation."

“We think the best producers can hope for domestically is a slow down in plant closures,” he said, even as jurisdictions like Alberta close their last coal plant entirely.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Power Generation News