By -- Source, The Sacramento Bee
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On sunny afternoons, there's not much artificial light left at the Freedom from Hunger offices in south Davis. People have gotten used to working by the sunlight streaming in through their windows. Even though the energy worries of last year have largely faded, the habits that grew during the crisis haven't, said Thomas.
"I would be surprised around here if people went back to the old ways of doing things," she said.
State energy officials hope she's right.
They're predicting that California will have enough electricity for everyone, even in an unusually hot season, as long as people conserve at least half as much as they did one year ago.
"Summer looks pretty good," said Steve Larson, executive director of the California Energy Commission, which will be releasing a relatively rosy seasonal forecast later this month.
New or expanded power plants still are coming on line. Two big projects totaling 1,800 megawatts are slightly ahead of schedule, and a third will add 500 megawatts by midsummer, said Karen Griffin, the commission's manager of electricity analysis.
Good snowfall in the Pacific Northwest is expected to make much more hydroelectric power available for import this summer than in water-scarce 2001. The commission still is refining its predictions but expects between 1,000 and 3,000 more megawatts of hydroelectric imports this year.
New power plants in the Southwest should aid California too, Griffin said. While July could be uncomfortably close, and power plant maintenance remains a concern, a reassuring picture is shaping up for the season that traditionally puts the worst strain on the state's power supplies.
"I don't want to encourage people not to conserve. It's absolutely essential," said Larson. But, "I think the commitment is so strong in the state not to have blackouts that we won't have blackouts."
That confidence, which is shared by utilities and grid operators, is a huge shift from one year ago, when California had already undergone six days of rolling outages and forecasters were predicting dozens more. In 2001, the state squeaked through the summer with a wave of new power plants, cooperative weather and more conservation than anyone expected. It came from all sides. People used less air conditioning and turned off lights.
Businesses snapped up energy-sparing lights. Building owners had vast, flat roofs painted white. Government offices were recruited to cut usage in sync when supplies got too tight. Water agencies timed their pumps to shut down at critical times. And utilities gave out discounts in droves for power-thrifty refrigerators and light bulbs, programmable thermostats and upgraded insulation.
At the Freedom from Hunger offices, Pacific Gas and Electric Co. did an energy audit and recommended new lighting, new kitchen appliances and a special film for south-facing windows.
The nonprofit agency spent more than $5,000 after rebates and made all the changes by late August. The next month, its electricity use dropped more than 30 percent, and monthly savings since have ranged from a few dollars to over $100.
Energy forecasters at utilities and state agencies know they can count on similar changes statewide to cut power usage for years to come. The bigger mystery is individual behavior. When -- if ever -- will people tire of setting their thermostats at 78 degrees or higher, turning off unneeded lights, and waiting until late evening to run heavy appliances? The Sacramento Municipal Utility District surveyed customer behavior and estimated that about half of last year's consumption cuts will be permanent and half will be temporary.
That should be enough to get through this year, said Jim Tracy, SMUD's planning officer.
"The potential for blackouts is fairly minimal," Tracy said. "But if we get into a circumstance where it's hot across the entire state, we have some unusual (power plant breakdowns) and people have sort of forgotten about their conservation efforts, there could be two or three days where it gets really tight."
In response to such concerns, SMUD will keep ready its "Peak Corps" of customers whose air conditioners can be turned off remotely, and a contingent of big businesses that are prepared to shut down some or all operations in a crisis.
The Independent System Operator, which runs much of the state's electric grid, is hoping to sign up 500 "negawatts" by June: power from customers who will drop off the grid when needed, for a price, if they're given advance notice.
The ISO also will keep its early warning programs in place, to alert consumers statewide if the next day's power reserves are predicted to drop below safe levels.
The state Consumer Services Department, which spent about $62 million last year reminding people to conserve, will devote about $57 million in 2002, most of it between spring and fall, to its "Flex Your Power" ad campaign.
"Conservation needs to be a permanent part of our policy. By really hammering it home this summer, perhaps it starts being habit-forming," said S. David Freeman, chairman of the state Power Authority.
The authority hopes to roll out an energy loan program and a "negawatt" effort of its own this year, and Gov. Gray Davis wants to revive the "20/20 electric bill" rebate program, to give discounts to consumers who use less than 20 percent of their 2000 consumption levels.
Freeman and Davis believe saving money will be one of the powerful motivators to keep energy use down this summer. It is certainly part of what drives the 35 people who work at Freedom from Hunger, which strives to end chronic hunger through self-help programs.
"The less money we spend on the lighting bills, the more money we have for programs," said Thomas, the agency's vice president of development. "We can feel like good citizens, but we can also feel we're devoting more resources to our mission."
