China still in dire need of electricity power in 2004

If uncertainties such as drought, high temperature, supply shortage of electricity and coal are taken into account, the situation will be tougher, according to prediction on the national electricity supply in 2004 issued by China Electricity Council recently.

According to statistics, 2004 will see a record in the power generator installment and construction of power grids. Newly installed electricity generator will be 350 million KWs and the total at the yearend will reach 420 million KWs, a year-on-year increase of 9 percent. The alternate and direct current transmission lines above 330 KVs. to be built nationwide will be about 10,000 kilometers and power transformation capacity about 45 million KVAs.

China Electricity Council predicted that in 2004 the nation has brought up relevant measures for adjustment and control over such industries as steel electrolytic aluminum and cement with over-heated investment. Meanwhile, the nation also regulated and cleaned up favorable price for electricity brought forward by various localities themselves in violation of the rules, resumed levying "2-cent" agriculture net loan payment funds which would also effect much impact on the increase of electricity consumption in the high-power-consuming industries. The down-to-earth measures practiced are expected to help bring down the increase of the electricity consumption of steel industry in 2004 to 14 percent and that of non-ferrous metal industry and chemical industry to about 10 percent. A comprehensive analysis of various factors foretells that the growth rate of the electricity consumption nationwide will be about 12 percent, 3-percentage points higher than the increase of generator installment.

In terms of region, power grids suffering from serious demand-supply threat are east China (except Anhui and Fujian provinces) and the south (except Hainan Province). The two provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu and Shanghai in the circle of the east China power grid will still have to be threatened by the severest power shortage in the country with the shortage to exceed 7 million KWs. Except the basically balanced Hainan Province, the four provinces (regions) covered by the south grid, will suffer from a severe conflict in power supply with a gross shortage of 4.2 million KWs. Grids with electricity shortage are mainly north China (except Shandong Provinve), northwest China (except Shaanxi Province) and central China (except Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces).

The provinces (regions) covered by north China grid, except Shandong, all have electricity shortage during the summer peak. The southern part of Henan Province, Shanxi and west Inner Mongolian girds all need blackouts. If there is continuous high temperature in summer, the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan grid will probably also have to shut off. The main problem for provinces (regions) covered by northwest grid (except Shaanxi) is the shortage of electricity. Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region suffers weak connection with the main northwest gird and lacks part of the electricity under peak load. Henan, Sichuan and Chongqing provinces covered by central China grid have insufficient supply with the total shortage of the grid about 1 to 2 million KWs.

Regions with smooth electricity supply and demand are mainly the northeast, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Hainan, Shaanxi, Xinjiang and Tibet.