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Solar PV Growth Forecast 2017-2022 highlights IEA projections of record renewable energy capacity, with China leading additions, wind power expansion, record-low auction prices, and solar surpassing coal in net growth across global electricity markets.

Key Points

An overview of IEA expectations for record solar PV expansion, leading renewables growth, and market trends through 2022.

✅ China, India, US drive two-thirds of capacity additions.

✅ Record-low auctions make solar and wind cost-competitive.

✅ Renewables near 30% of generation; coal gap narrows.

New solar PV capacity grew by 50% last year, with China accounting for almost half of the global expansion, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest renewables market analysis and forecast and IRENA’s 2016 record data highlighting the surge.

Boosted by a strong solar PV market, renewables accounted for almost two-thirds of net new power capacity around the world last year, with almost 165 gigawatts (GW) coming online, according to the new report, Renewables 2017. Renewables will continue to have a strong growth in coming years, with BNEF projections pointing to a 50% electricity share by 2050. By 2022, renewable electricity capacity should increase by 43%.

“We see renewables growing by about 1,000 GW by 2022, which equals about half of the current global capacity in coal power, which took 80 years to build,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA. “What we are witnessing is the birth of a new era in solar PV. We expect that solar PV capacity growth will be higher than any other renewable technology through 2022.”

This year’s renewable forecastis 12% higher than last year, keeping global renewable power on course to shatter records as upward revisions in China and India lead the way. Three countries – China, India and the United States – will account for two-thirds of global renewable expansion by 2022. Total solar PV capacity by then would exceed the combined total power capacities of India and Japan today.

In power generation, renewable electricity is expected to grow by more than a third by 2022 to over 8,000 terawatt hours, which is equivalent to the total power consumption of China, India and Germany combined. By then, renewables will account for 30% of power generation, up from 24% in 2016. The growth in renewable generation will be twice as large as that of gas and coal combined. Though coal remains the largest source of electricity generation in 2022, renewables close the generation gap with coal by half in just five years.

The deployment in solar PV and wind last year was accompanied by record-low auction prices, which fell as low as 3 cents per kwh (or kilowatt hour). Low announced prices for solar and wind were recorded in a variety of places, such as India, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico and Chile. These announced contract prices for solar PV and wind power purchase agreements are increasingly comparable or lower than generation cost of newly built gas and coal power plants, supporting the US move towards 30% from wind and solar as cost trends persist.

China remains the undisputed leader of renewable electricity capacity expansion over the forecast period with over 360 GW of capacity coming online, or 40% of the global total. China’s renewables growth is largely driven by concerns about air pollution and capacity targets that were outlined in the country’s 13th five-year plan to 2020. In fact, China already exceeded its 2020 solar PV target three years ahead of time and is set to achieve its onshore wind target in 2019. Still, the growing cost of renewable subsidies and grid integration issues remain two important challenges to further expansion.

Under an accelerated case – where government policy lifts barriers to growth – IEA analysis finds that renewable capacity growth could be boosted by another 30%, totalling an extra 1,150 GW by 2022 led by China. Solar PV and wind capacity in China could by then reach twice the total power capacity of Japan today.

India’s move to address the financial health of its utilities and tackle grid-integration issues drive a more optimistic forecast. By 2022, India renewable capacity will more than double. This growth is enough to overtake renewable expansion in the European Union for the first time. Solar PV and wind together represent 90% of India’s capacity growth as auctions yielded some of the world’s lowest prices for both technologies.

Despite policy uncertainties at the federal level, the United States remains the second-largest growth market for renewables, with one-fourth of US electricity projected to come from renewables soon. The main drivers for onshore wind and solar – such as multi-year federal tax incentives combined with renewable portfolio standards as well as state-level policies for distributed solar PV – remain strong. Still, the current uncertainty over proposed federal tax reforms, international trade and energy policies could alter the economic attractiveness of renewables and hamper their growth over our forecast period.

The report also provides detailed analysis on the renewable consumption of electric cars and off-grid solar deployment in Africa and developing Asia. Off-grid capacity in these regions will more than triple reaching over 3 000 MW in 2022 from industrial applications, solar home systems (SHSs) and mini-grids driven by government electrification programmes and private sector initiatives. While this represents less than 5% of total PV capacity installed in both regions, the economic impact is nonetheless significant, and brings basic electricity services to almost 70 million more people in developing Asia and sub-Saharan Africa in the next five years.

Power consumption of EVs – including cars, two- and-three wheelers and buses – is expected to double over the next five years, with renewable electricity estimated to represent almost 30% of their consumption by 2022, up from 26% today. EVs play a complementary role to biofuels, which represent 80% of growth in renewable energy consumption in transport. However, the share of renewables in total road transport energy consumption remains limited, increasing only from 4% in 2016 to almost 5% in 2022.

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SaskPower Renewable Energy 2030 advances 50% renewables through wind power, solar projects, and geothermal research, backed by natural gas capacity, grid integration, competitive procurement, PPAs, and capacity expansion to meet rising demand in Saskatchewan.

Key Points

SaskPower's plan to reach 50% renewable power by 2030 via wind, solar, geothermal research, and supporting natural gas.

✅ Plans to reach 2,100 MW wind and 60 MW solar by 2030

✅ Geothermal pilot via PPA; grid integration projects

✅ New gas plants add 700 MW+ for reliability, demand growth

SaskPower says progress is being made on its goal of increasing renewable electricity generation from the current 25 per cent to as much as 50 per cent by 2030, as outlined in its 2019-20 annual report released.

The Crown corporation announced in 2015 it would reduce emissions by 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, which would involve doubling the percentage of renewable electricity.

“Developing cleaner electricity generation options is essential to power Saskatchewan’s future and I’m excited to see that future continuing to take shape,” Tim Eckel, SaskPower’s vice-president of asset management, planning and sustainability, said in a press release.

“In the past two years, we have started a number of new renewable generation projects as well as projects that support renewable integration. Saskatchewan people will see more of that as we continue towards 2030.”

SaskPower has announced plans to add 60 megawatt (MW) of ground solar generation by 2021 through a combination of competitive procurement, a partnership with First Nations Power Authority and community projects such as the Flying Dust First Nation agreement now under consideration.

A competitive process for Saskatchewan’s first 10 MW utility-scale solar project has also been launched.

Wind power capacity is expected to increase from the current 221 MW to around 2,100 MW by 2030. SaskPower has launched the competitive process to buy up to 200 MW of wind generation with the successful proponent expected to be named this spring.

A power purchase agreement with DEEP Earth Energy Production Corp. was signed in May to allow further research into the potential for Saskatchewan’s first geothermal power project under study.

At the same time, SaskPower said it must increase its overall generation capacity in response to the province’s growing demand for electricity, including during record power demand periods.

“We are evaluating the full range of generation options, including imports from Manitoba Hydro as needed, which will allow us to determine the portfolio that best allows us to deliver reliable, cost-effective and sustainable power,” the Crown corporation said in a press release.

SaskPower has started construction on the Chinook Power Station, which will add 350 MW of natural gas generation as well as announced site considerations for the province’s next 350 MW to 700 MW natural gas plant.

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U.S. Solar Generation Forecast highlights rising photovoltaics, utility-scale and small-scale growth across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, shaped by Investment Tax Credit policy and EIA Short-Term and Annual Energy Outlook projections.

Key Points

An estimate of U.S. solar generation shares, spanning PV and solar thermal across utility-scale and small-scale sources.

✅ 2020: 3% of U.S. electricity; 2021: 4%; 2022: 5% (STEO).

✅ Reference: 14% by 2035, 20% by 2050 (AEO2021).

✅ Utility-scale share grows to 78% by 2050; ITC supports builds.

According to our Electric Power Annual, solar power accounted for 3% of U.S. electricity generation from all sources in 2020, as renewables became the second-most prevalent source that year overall. In our Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast that solar will account for 4% of U.S. electricity generation in 2021 and 5% in 2022, though 4.7% share in 2022 was reported by independent sources. In our Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) Reference case, which assumes no change in current laws and regulations, we project that solar generation will make up 14% of the U.S. total in 2035 and 20% in 2050. These data include electricity generated from both utility-scale (those of 1 megawatt or more generating capacity) and small-scale (less than 1 megawatt) solar facilities in the electric power, residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.

Humans have been using solar energy for centuries and first produced solar-powered electricity in the United States in 1954. Currently, solar energy can generate electricity in two ways: solar photovoltaics (PV) and solar thermal, and has become the third-largest renewable source in the United States. Solar PV cells, such as rooftop solar panels, directly convert sunlight into electricity. Solar thermal facilities use mirrors to concentrate sunlight at a central receptor and produce the high temperatures needed to generate electricity with a steam-powered turbine.

Increases in small-scale solar, particularly in the commercial and residential sectors, drove much of the early growth in U.S. solar electricity net generation, while 82% of the 2023 utility-scale pipeline is now wind, solar, and batteries nationwide. In 2011, small-scale solar accounted for 68% of total U.S. solar electricity net generation. However, utility-scale solar generation increased substantially in the United States during the past decade as average construction costs for solar power plants fell.

In our long-term projections, the electric power sector continues to produce the most solar generation, increasing from 68% of total solar generation in 2020 to 78% in 2050. The growing share of utility-scale generation is due in part to the availability of a 10% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) after 2023, and policy proposals such as tenfold expansion of solar have been discussed; in contrast, the ITC for small-scale solar has expired.

The AEO2021’s projected share of solar generation is affected by assumptions about the installed and operating costs of other generating technologies, particularly in later years of the projection period when the projected trends in solar are increasingly influenced by economic factors rather than policy, and 30% from wind and solar is seen as attainable under broader market trends. In a sensitivity case in which natural gas prices are higher than in the Reference case (the Low Oil and Gas Supply case), solar generation reaches 25% of total generation by 2050, compared with 20% in the Reference case, while one-fourth of U.S. electricity is projected for renewables. In another sensitivity case in which installed costs of renewables are lower than in the Reference case (the Low Renewables Costs case), solar generation makes up 27% of total generation by 2050.

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U.S. Wind and Solar Power Potential shows 80 percent reliable supply via renewable energy, grid integration, energy storage, and transmission upgrades, while seasonal variability demands backup sources like nuclear, hydropower, and demand management.

Key Points

An estimate that wind and solar can supply 80 percent of US demand, with storage, transmission, and low-carbon backups.

✅ 36-year hourly weather data modeled supply and demand

✅ 80 percent reliable with 12-hour storage or continental transmission

✅ Beyond 80 percent needs seasonal storage, nuclear, hydro, demand response

The United States could reliably meet about 80 percent of its electricity demand with solar and wind power generation, according to scientists at the University of California, Irvine; the California Institute of Technology; and the Carnegie Institution for Science.

However, meeting 100 percent of electricity demand with only solar and wind energy, which helps explain why the grid isn't yet 100% renewable today, would require storing several weeks' worth of electricity to compensate for the natural variability of these two resources, the researchers said.

"The sun sets, and the wind doesn't always blow," noted Steven Davis, UCI associate professor of Earth system science and co-author of a renewable energy study published today in the journal Energy & Environmental Science. "If we want a reliable power system based on these resources, how do we deal with their daily and seasonal changes?"

The team analyzed 36 years of hourly U.S. weather data (1980 to 2015) to understand the fundamental geophysical barriers to supplying electricity with only solar and wind energy.

"We looked at the variability of solar and wind energy over both time and space and compared that to U.S. electricity demand," Davis said. "What we found is that we could reliably get around 80 percent of our electricity from these sources by building either a continental-scale transmission network or facilities that could store 12 hours' worth of the nation's electricity demand."

The researchers said that such expansion of transmission or storage capabilities would mean very substantial -- but not inconceivable -- investments, and initiatives like tenfold solar expansion would remake the U.S. electricity system. They estimated that the cost of the new transmission lines required, for example, could be hundreds of billions of dollars. In comparison, storing that much electricity with today's cheapest batteries would likely cost more than a trillion dollars, although prices are falling.

Other forms of energy stockpiling, such as pumping water uphill to later flow back down through hydropower generators, are attractive but limited in scope. The U.S. has a lot of water in the East but not much elevation, with the opposite arrangement in the West.

Fossil fuel-based electricity production is responsible for about 38 percent of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions -- CO2 pollution being the major cause of global climate change. Davis said he is heartened by the progress that has been made, such as when renewables surpassed coal in 2022 nationwide, and the prospects for the future.

"The fact that we could get 80 percent of our power from wind and solar alone is really encouraging," he said, and recent data show renewables hit a record 28% in April nationwide. "Five years ago, many people doubted that these resources could account for more than 20 or 30 percent."

But beyond the 80 percent mark, the amount of energy storage required to overcome seasonal and weather variabilities increases rapidly. "Our work indicates that low-carbon-emission power sources will be needed to complement what we can harvest from the wind and sun until storage and transmission capabilities are up to the job," said co-author Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science. "Options could include nuclear and hydroelectric power generation, as well as managing demand and other ways to meet decarbonization goals identified by researchers."

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India Solar Safeguard Duty could impose a 70% tariff on Chinese and Malaysian solar cells and modules, citing serious injury, protecting domestic manufacturing, affecting imports, prices, tenders, and the 2017 record-low tariff trajectory.

Key Points

A proposed 70% provisional tariff on Chinese and Malaysian solar cells and modules to protect India's domestic industry.

✅ 70% provisional duty for 200 days on cells and modules

✅ Aims to prevent serious injury and job losses

✅ Likely to raise tariffs and slow tendered solar projects

India, the largest importer of Chinese solar equipment, proposed a 70 per cent "safeguard duty" on cells and modules shipped from China, where solar is cheaper than grid electricity in many cities, and Malaysia, citing “threat of serious injury” to the domestic industry.

Acting on an application by five local cell and module makers, the Directorate General of Safeguards, Customs and Central Excise made the proposal in a document dated Jan. 5. It recommended the levy remain in effect for 200 days, as Germany saw a solar power boost amid broader energy concerns.

“Existing critical circumstances justify the immediate imposition of a provisional safeguard duty in order to save the domestic industry from further serious injury, which would be difficult to repair,” the Finance Ministry said in the document, also citing the potential for job losses.

Globally, external shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic have stalled a third of new U.S. utility solar this year, according to one report.

India’s annual manufacturing capacity for solar cells is only around 3 GW, compared with the average requirement of 20 GW for its on-grid solar power sector, according to a government note last month. The rest has to be purchased on the international market, it said. The South Asian nation was the largest solar-cell and module importer from China last year, buying a third of that nation’s $8 billion of shipments from January through September, according to research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

The ministry’s document said China’s solar exports to India constituted 1.52 percent of its total global exports during 2012, a figure that surged to almost 22 percent in 2016.

“India’s solar story is built on Chinese panels, and the duty, if implemented, would mean the end of record low solar tariffs that we saw in 2017,” said Vandana Gombar, a BNEF analyst in New Delhi, even as India's solar growth slows in recent assessments.

The government’s proposal came after five domestic manufacturers — Adani Enterprises Ltd.-backed Mundra Solar PV Ltd., Indosolar Ltd., Jupiter Solar Power Ltd., Websol Energy Systems Ltd. and Helios Photo Voltaic Ltd. — filed an application on Dec. 5 seeking a duty on imports of solar cells “whether or not assembled in modules or panels.”

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Canada Solar Energy lags despite falling costs, with 0.5% of electricity from solar, largely in Ontario. NEB reports renewables replacing coal, while wind, hydro, and utility-scale capacity grow alongside distributed rooftop systems.

Key Points

Canada Solar Energy refers to the nation's solar market, supplying 0.5% of electricity, mostly concentrated in Ontario.

✅ 0.5% of Canada's electricity from solar, mainly in Ontario

✅ Costs per watt near $0.95; utility and rooftop PV expanding

✅ Wind and hydro grow as coal is phased out by 2030

Although the cost to build solar power has plummeted over the last decade, a new report suggests Canadians aren't rushing use the sun to make electricity.

The National Energy Board has released its annual look at the state of renewable energy in Canada and it says solar energy accounts for just 0.5 per cent of all Canada's generated electricity.

And almost all of that exists entirely in Ontario, the report notes, though renewable growth projections were scaled back after a provincial clean energy program was scrapped by policymakers.

NEB chief economist Shelley Milutinovic said the trend in Canada is that renewable energy sources like wind and solar are replacing coal as Canada moves to eliminate that as a source of electricity by 2030.

Between 2005 and 2016, non-hydroelectric renewables - wind, solar and biomass - grew from 1.5 per cent of total electricity generation in Canada to 7.2 per cent.

During that same period coal fell from 16 per cent to 9.3 per cent as a source of power. Canada intends to eliminate coal as a source of power by 2030 and only four provinces still get any power from the fossil fuel.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development released a review of Canada's environmental policies this week which gave the country a rough ride for its energy-intensive, high-emitting, resource-based economy, but did point to Canada's electrical supply as a positive.

Only about 20 per cent of Canada's electricity comes from fossil fuels now - divided almost equally between coal and natural gas. Nuclear energy accounts for 15 per cent of Canada's electricity supply.

The rest comes from renewables. Hydro is the big beast in that, responsible for almost 60 per cent of Canada's power in 2016. While actual hydro power generation has grown about seven per cent in the last decade, Canada ranks in the top 10 for hydropower jobs even as other renewables are exploding.

The amount of electricity generated by the wind is 20 times what it was in 2005, and wind as a percentage of total power grew from just 0.2 per cent in 2005 to 4.7 per cent in 2016.

Solar didn't exist as a source of power for utility companies in Canada a decade ago. By 2016, solar capacity was 2,310 megawatts, almost all of it in Ontario, and national capacity is set to hit 5 GW according to recent reports.

Outside of Ontario, solar installations are mostly quite small, though the Prairie Provinces are projected to lead upcoming renewable growth across Canada. The largest solar farm in western Canada is a two-megawatt one on the Green Acres Hutterite Colony east of Calgary.

Milutinovic said the costs of solar and wind are now very comparable to other sources of power which are making them more and more attractive.

The cost to install a solar panel is about one-tenth of what it was in 2000, at about 95 cents per watt, according to the International Energy Agency.

Despite that, Canada is outmatched in solar on the international scene.

While Canada's biggest solar farm is about 100 megawatts, India this year unleashed one 10 times as large. The Kunrool Ultra Mega Solar Park is the largest in the world with 1000 megawatts of installed capacity.

India had just 17 megawatts of installed solar capacity in 2010. It now has 12,000 megawatts.

China is the world's solar leader, both in the manufacturing of solar panels and their installation. In 2005, China had 70 megawatts of installed solar power. In 2016,China had developed 78,000 MW.

Canada is 13th in the world in the amount of installed solar capacity. Where Canada gets just 0.5 per cent of its power from solar, Italy gets 7.5 per cent, Germany gets 6.7 per cent, Japan 4.9 per cent, the United States 1.4 per cent, China 1.07 per cent, and the Netherlands outpaces Canada in solar output as well.

Milutinovic said the one thing not measured in this report however is the capacity for solar installations on private homes and businesses. She said some of the Ontario solar generation numbers include those, but elsewhere that is simply not being tracked.

So there is no good data on how many individuals now have solar panels on their roofs or how many farms have them in their fields.

She said it is one area governments should be looking at to get a better picture of what is actually happening on this front.

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