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IESO Fictitious Demand Error inflated HOEP in the Ontario electricity market, after embedded generation was mis-modeled; the OEB says double-counted load lifted wholesale prices and shifted costs via the Global Adjustment.

Key Points

An IESO modeling flaw that double-counted load, inflating HOEP and charges in Ontario's wholesale market.

✅ Double-counted unmetered load from embedded generation

✅ Inflated HOEP; shifted costs via Global Adjustment

✅ OEB flagged transparency; exporters paid more

For almost a year, the operator of Ontario’s electricity system erroneously counted enough phantom demand to power a small city, causing prices to spike and hundreds of millions of dollars in extra charges to consumers, according to the provincial energy regulator.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) also failed to tell anyone about the error once it noticed and fixed it.

The error likely added between $450 million and $560 million to hourly rates and other charges before it was fixed in April 2017, according to a report released this month by the Ontario Energy Board’s Market Surveillance Panel.

It did this by adding as much as 220 MW of “fictitious demand” to the market starting in May 2016, when the IESO started paying consumers who reduced their demand for power during peak periods. This involved the integration of small-scale embedded generation (largely made up of solar) into its wholesale model for the first time.

The mistake assumed maximum consumption at such sites without meters, and double-counted that consumption.

The OEB said the mistake particularly hurt exporters and some end-users, who did not benefit from a related reduction of a global adjustment rate applicable to other customers.

“The most direct impact of the increase in HOEP (Hourly Ontario Energy Price) was felt by Ontario consumers and exporters of electricity, who paid an artificially high HOEP, to the benefit of generators and importers,” the OEB said.

The mix-up did not result in an equivalent increase in total system costs, because changes to the HOEP are offset by inverse changes to a electricity cost allocation mechanism such as the Global Adjustment rate, the OEB noted.

A chart from the OEB's report shows the time of day when fictitious demand was added to the system, and its influence on hourly rates.

Peak time spikes
The OEB said that the fictitious demand “regularly inflated” the hourly price of energy and other costs calculated as a direct function of it.

For almost a year, Ontario's electricity system operator @IESO_Tweets erroneously counted enough phantom demand to power a small city, causing price spikes and hundreds of millions in charges to consumers, @OntEnergyBoard says. @5thEstate reports.

It estimated the average increase to the HOEP was as much as $4.50/MWh, but that price spikes, compounded by scheduled OEB rate changes, would have been much higher during busier times, such as the mid-morning and early evening.

“In times of tight supply, the addition of fictitious demand often had a dramatic inflationary impact on the HOEP,” the report said.

That meant on one summer evening in 2016 the hourly rate jumped to $1,619/MWh, it said, which was the fourth highest in the history of the Ontario wholesale electricity market.

“Additional demand is met by scheduling increasingly expensive supply, thus increasing the market price. In instances where supply is tight and the supply stack is steep, small increases in demand can cause significant increases in the market price.

The OEB questioned why, as of September this year, the IESO had failed to notify its customers or the broader public, amid a broader auditor-regulator dispute that drew political attention, about the mistake and its effect on prices.

“It's time for greater transparency on where electricity costs are really coming from,” said Sarah Buchanan, clean energy program manager at Environmental Defence.

“Ontario will be making big decisions in the coming years about whether to keep our electricity grid clean, or burn more fossil fuels to keep the lights on,” she added. “These decisions need to be informed by the best possible evidence, and that can't happen if critical information is hidden.”

In a response to the OEB report on Monday, the IESO said its own initial analysis found that the error likely pushed wholesale electricity payments up by $225 million. That calculation assumed that the higher prices would have changed consumer behaviour, while upcoming electricity auctions were cited as a way to lower costs, it said.

In response to questions, a spokesperson said residential and small commercial consumers would have saved $11 million in electricity costs over the 11-month period, even as a typical bill increase loomed province-wide, while larger consumers would have paid an extra $14 million.

That is because residential and small commercial customers pay some costs via time-of-use rates, including a temporary recovery rate framework, the IESO said, while larger customers pay them in a way that reflects their share of overall electricity use during the five highest demand hours of the year.

The IESO said it could not compensate those that had paid too much, given the complexity of the system, and that the modelling error did not have a significant impact on ratepayers.

While acknowledging the effects of the mistake would vary among its customers, the IESO said the net market impact was less than $10 million, amid ongoing legislation to lower electricity rates in Ontario.

It said it would improve testing of its processes prior to deployment and agreed to publicly disclose errors that significantly affect the wholesale market in the future.

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Geothermal Emergency Permitting accelerates BLM approvals on public lands via categorical exclusions for exploratory drilling and geophysical surveys, boosting domestic energy security, cutting timelines by up to a year, and streamlining low-impact reviews.

Key Points

A policy fast-tracking geothermal exploration on public lands, using BLM categorical exclusions to cut review delays.

✅ Categorical exclusions speed exploratory drilling approvals

✅ Cuts permitting timelines by up to one year

✅ Focused on public lands to enhance energy security

In a significant policy shift, the U.S. Department of the Interior has introduced emergency permitting procedures aimed at expediting the development of geothermal energy projects. This initiative, announced on May 30, 2025, is part of a broader strategy to enhance domestic energy production, seen in proposals to replace Obama's power plant overhaul and reduce reliance on foreign energy sources.

Background and Rationale

The decision to fast-track geothermal energy projects comes in the wake of President Donald Trump's declaration of a national energy emergency, which faces a legal challenge from Washington's attorney general, on January 20, 2025. This declaration cited high energy costs and an unreliable energy grid as threats to national security and economic prosperity. While the emergency order includes traditional energy resources such as oil, gas, coal, and uranium and nuclear energy resources, it notably excludes renewable sources like solar, wind, and hydrogen from its scope.

Geothermal energy, which harnesses heat from beneath the Earth's surface to generate electricity, is considered a reliable and low-emission energy source. However, its development has been hindered by lengthy permitting processes and environmental reviews, with recent NEPA rule changes influencing timelines. The new emergency permitting procedures aim to address these challenges by streamlining the approval process for geothermal projects.

Key Features of the Emergency Permitting Procedures

Under the new guidelines, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has adopted categorical exclusions to expedite the review and approval of geothermal energy exploration on public lands. These exclusions allow for faster permitting of low-impact activities, such as drilling exploratory wells and conducting geophysical surveys, without the need for extensive environmental assessments.

Additionally, the BLM has proposed a new categorical exclusion that would apply to operations related to the search for indirect evidence of geothermal resources. This proposal is currently open for public comment and, if finalized, would further accelerate the discovery of new geothermal resources on public lands.

Expected Impact on Geothermal Energy Development

The implementation of these emergency permitting procedures is expected to significantly reduce the time and cost associated with developing geothermal energy projects. According to the Department of the Interior, the new measures could cut permitting timelines by up to a year for certain types of geothermal exploration activities.

This acceleration in project development is particularly important given the untapped geothermal potential in regions like Nevada, which is home to some of the largest undeveloped geothermal resources in the country.

Industry and Environmental Reactions

The geothermal industry has largely welcomed the new permitting procedures, viewing them as a necessary step to unlock the full potential of geothermal energy. Industry advocates argue that reducing permitting delays will facilitate the deployment of geothermal projects, contributing to a more reliable and sustainable energy grid amid debates over electricity pricing changes that affect market signals.

However, the exclusion of solar and wind energy projects from the emergency permitting procedures has drawn criticism from some environmental groups. Critics argue that a comprehensive approach to energy development should include all renewable sources, not just geothermal, to effectively address climate change, as reflected in new EPA pollution limits for coal and gas power plants, and promote energy sustainability.

The U.S. government's move to implement emergency permitting procedures for geothermal energy development marks a significant step toward enhancing domestic energy production and reducing reliance on foreign energy sources. By streamlining the approval process for geothermal projects, the administration aims to accelerate the deployment of this reliable and low-emission energy source. While the exclusion of other renewable energy sources from the emergency procedures has sparked debate, especially after states like California halted an energy rebate program during a federal freeze, the focus on geothermal energy underscores its potential role in the nation's energy future.

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DOE Office of Fossil Energy safeguards energy security via the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, domestic critical minerals from coal byproducts, and carbon capture to curb CO2, strengthening resiliency amid shocks and supporting U.S. manufacturing and defense.

Key Points

A DOE program advancing energy security through SPR stewardship, critical minerals R&D, and carbon capture.

✅ Manages the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for emergency crude supply

✅ Develops domestic critical minerals from coal and mining byproducts

✅ Deploys carbon capture, utilization, and storage to cut CO2

The global economy has just experienced a period of unique transformation because of COVID-19. The fact that remains constant in this new economic landscape is that our society relies on energy; it’s an integral part of our day-to-day lives, even as U.S. energy use has evolved over time. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, approximately 80 percent of energy consumption in the United States comes from fossil fuels, so having access to a secure and reliable supply of those energy resources is more important than ever for national energy security considerations today. Below are three examples that highlight how our work at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy (FE) helps ensure the Nation’s energy security and resiliency.

(1) Open crude oil reserves to respond to crises

FE has overall program responsibility for carrying out the mission of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil. These federally-owned stocks are stored in massive underground salt caverns along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico. The SPR is a powerful tool U.S. leaders use to respond to a wide range of crises, including energy crisis impacts on electricity and fuels, involving crude oil disruption or demand loss.  When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the oil markets crashed and crude oil demand dropped drastically across the world. U.S. oil producers turned to the SPR to store their oil while broader energy dominance constraints were becoming evident in practice. This helped alleviate the pressure on producers to shut in oil production and proved to be a critical asset for American energy and national security.

(2) Use the Nation’s abundant coal reserves to produce valuable materials

Critical materials, including rare earth elements, are a group of chemical elements and materials with unique properties that support manufacturing of most modern technologies. They are essential components for critical defense and homeland security applications, green energy technologies, hybrid and electric vehicles, and high-value electronics. While these materials are not rare, they are hard to separate and expensive to extract. The United States relies heavily on imports from China. To reduce U.S. dependence on foreign sources, FE has a research and development program aimed at producing a domestic supply of critical materials from the Nation’s abundant coal resources and associated byproducts from legacy and current mining operations. Many of the technologies being developed can also be used to separate critical minerals from other mining materials and byproducts. Tapping into these resources has the potential to create new industries and revitalize coal communities and the workforce in coal-producing regions.

(3) Decrease carbon emissions for a cleaner energy future

FE is committed to balancing the Nation’s energy use with the need to protect the environment, and has a comprehensive portfolio of technological solutions that help keep carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions out of the atmosphere. For example, amid high natural gas prices that reinforce the case for clean electricity, the Department has been investing in carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies for over a decade. These technologies capture CO2 emissions from various sources, including coal-fired power plants and manufacturing plants, before they enter the atmosphere. Several of these cutting-edge technologies have been deployed at major demonstration sites, supported by clean energy funding that aims to benefit millions. Three of these projects—Petra Nova, Archer Daniels Midland, and Air Products & Chemicals—have captured and injected over 10.8 million metric tons of CO2. The success of these projects is paving the way toward a cleaner and more sustainable American energy future.

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Alliant Energy Net-Zero Carbon Plan outlines carbon-neutral electricity by 2050, coal retirements by 2040, major solar and wind additions, gas transition, battery storage, hydrogen, and carbon credits to reduce emissions and lower customer costs.

Key Points

Alliant Energy's strategy to reach carbon-neutral power by 2050 via coal phaseout, renewables, storage, and offsets.

✅ Targets net-zero electricity by 2050

✅ Retires all coal by 2040; expands solar and wind

✅ Uses storage, hydrogen, and offsets to bridge gaps

Alliant Energy has joined a small but growing group of utilities aiming for carbon-neutral electricity by 2050.

In a report released Wednesday, the Madison-based company announced a goal of “net-zero carbon dioxide emissions” from its electricity generation along with plans to eliminate all coal-powered generation by 2040, a decade earlier than the company’s previous target.

Alliant, which is pursuing plans that would make it the largest solar energy generator in Wisconsin, said it is on track to cut its 2005 carbon emissions in half by 2030.

Both goals are in line with targets an international group of scientists warn is necessary to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. But reducing greenhouse gasses was not the primary motivation, said executive vice president and general counsel Jim Gallegos.

“The primary driver is focused on our customers and communities and setting them up … to be competitive,” Gallegos said. “We do think renewables are going to do it better than fossil fuels.”

Alliant has told regulators it can save customers up to $6.5 billion over the next 35 years by adding more than 1,600 megawatts of renewable generation, closing one of its two remaining Wisconsin coal plants and taking other undisclosed actions.

In a statement, Alliant chairman and CEO John Larsen said the goal is part of broader corporate and social responsibility efforts “guided by our strategy and designed to deliver on our purpose — to serve customers and build stronger communities.”

Coal out; gas remains
The goal applies only to Alliant’s electricity generation — the company has no plans to stop distributing natural gas for heating — and is “net-zero,” meaning the company could use some form of carbon capture or purchase carbon credits to offset continuing emissions.

The plan relies heavily on renewable generation — seen in regions embracing clean power across North America — including the addition of up to 1,000 megawatts of new Wisconsin solar plants by the end of 2023 and 1,000 megawatts of Iowa wind generation added over the past four years — as well as natural gas generators to replace its aging coal fleet.

But Jeff Hanson, Alliant’s director of sustainability, said eliminating or offsetting all carbon emissions will require new tools, such as battery storage or possibly carbon-free fuels such as hydrogen, and awareness of the Three Mile Island debate over the role of nuclear power in the mix.

“Getting to the 2040 goals, that’s all based on the technologies of today,” Hanson said. “Can we get to net zero today? The challenge would be a pretty high bar to clear.”

Gallegos said the plan does not call for the construction of more large-scale natural gas generators like the recently completed $700 million West Riverside Energy Center in Beloit, though natural gas will remain a key piece of Alliant’s generation portfolio.

Alliant announced plans in May to close its 400-megawatt Edgewater plant in Sheboygan by the end of 2022, echoing how Alberta is retiring coal by 2023 as markets shift, but has not provided a date for the shutdown of the jointly owned 1,100-megawatt Columbia Energy Center near Portage, which received about $1 billion worth of pollution-control upgrades in the past decade.

Alliant’s Iowa subsidiary plans to convert its 52-year-old, 200-megawatt Burlington plant to natural gas by the end of next year and a pair of small coal-fired generators in Linn County by 2025. That leaves the 250-megawatt plant in Lansing, which is now 43 years old, and the 734-megawatt Ottumwa plant as the remaining coal-fired generators, even as others keep a U.S. coal plant running indefinitely elsewhere.

Earlier this year, the utility asked regulators to approve a roughly $900 million investment in six solar farms across the state with a total capacity of 675 megawatts, similar to plans in Ontario to seek new wind and solar to address supply needs. The company plans to apply next year for permission to add up to 325 additional megawatts.

Alliant said the carbon-neutral plan, which entails closing Edgewater along with other undisclosed actions, would save customers between $2 billion and $6.5 billion through 2055 compared to the status quo.

Tom Content, executive director of the Citizens Utility Board, said the consumer advocacy group wants to ensure that ratepayers aren’t forced to continue paying for coal plants that are no longer needed while also paying for new energy sources and would like to see a bigger role for energy efficiency and more transparency about the utilities’ pathways to decarbonization.

‘They could do better’
Environmental groups said the announcement is a step in the right direction, though they say utilities need to do even more to protect the environment and consumers.

Amid competition from cheaper natural gas and renewable energy and pressure from environmentally conscious investors, U.S. utilities have been closing coal plants at a record pace in recent years, as industry CEOs say a coal comeback is unlikely in the U.S., a trend that is expected to continue through the next decade.

“This is not industry leadership when we’re talking about emission reductions,” said Elizabeth Katt Reinders, regional campaign director for the Sierra Club, which has called on Alliant to retire the Columbia plant by 2026.

Closing Edgewater and Columbia would get Alliant nearly halfway to its emissions goals while saving customers more than $250 million over the next decade, according to a Sierra Club study released earlier this year.

“Retiring Edgewater was a really good decision. Investing in 1,000 megawatts of new solar is game-changing for Wisconsin,” Katt Reinders said. “In the same breath we can say this emissions reduction goal is unambitious. Our analysis has shown they can do far more far sooner.”

Scott Blankman, a former Alliant executive who now works as director of energy and air programs for Clean Wisconsin, said Alliant should not run the Columbia plant for another 20 years.

“If they’re saying they’re looking to get out of coal by 2040 in Wisconsin I’d be very disappointed,” Blankman said. “I do think they could do better.”

Alliant is the 15th U.S. investor-owned utility to set a net-zero target, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council, joining Madison Gas and Electric, which announced a similar goal last year. Minnesota-based Xcel Energy, which serves customers in western Wisconsin, was the first large investor-owned utility to set such a target, as state utilities report declining returns in coal operations.

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EU Electricity Price Limits are proposed by the European Commission to curb contagion from gas prices, bolster energy security, stabilize the power market, and manage inflation via LNG imports, gas storage, and reduced demand.

Key Points

Temporary power-price caps to curb gas contagion, shield consumers, and bolster EU energy security.

✅ Limits decouple electricity from volatile gas benchmarks

✅ Short-term LNG imports and storage to enhance supply security

✅ Market design reforms and demand reduction to tame prices

The European Union should consider emergency measures in the coming weeks that could include price cap strategies on electricity prices, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told leaders at an EU summit in Versailles.

The reference to the possible measures was contained in a slide deck Ms. von der Leyen used to discuss efforts to curb the EU’s reliance on Russian energy imports, which last year accounted for about 40% of its natural-gas consumption. The slides were posted to Ms. von der Leyen’s Twitter account.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the vulnerability of Europe’s energy supplies to severe supply disruptions and raised fears that imports could be cut off by Moscow or because of damage to pipelines that run across Ukraine. It has also driven energy prices up sharply, contributing to worries about inflation and economic growth.

Earlier this week, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, published the outline of a plan that it said could cut imports of Russian natural gas by two-thirds this year and end the need for those imports entirely before 2030, aligning with calls to ditch fossil fuels in Europe. In the short-term, the plan relies largely on storing natural gas ahead of next winter’s heating season, reducing consumption and boosting imports of liquefied natural gas from other producers.

The Commission acknowledged in its report that high energy prices are rippling through the economy, even as European gas prices have fallen back toward pre-war levels, raising manufacturing costs for energy-intensive businesses and putting pressure on low-income households. It said it would consult “as a matter of urgency” and propose options for dealing with high prices.

The slide deck used by Ms. von der Leyen on Thursday said the Commission plans by the end of March to present emergency options “to limit the contagion effect of gas prices in electricity prices, including temporary price limits, even though rolling back electricity prices can be complex under current market rules.” It also intends this month to set up a task force to prepare for next winter and a proposal for a gas storage policy.

By mid-May, the Commission will set out options to revamp the electricity market and issue a proposal for phasing out EU dependency on Russian fossil fuels by 2027, according to the slides.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that Europe needs to protect its citizens and companies from the increase in energy prices, adding that some countries, including France, have already taken some national measures.

“If this lasts, we will need to have a more long-lasting European mechanism,” he said. “We will give a mandate to the Commission so that by the end of the month we can get all the necessary legislation ready.”

The problem with price limits is that they reduce the incentive for people and businesses to consume less, said Daniel Gros, distinguished fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels think tank. He said low-income families and perhaps some businesses will need help dealing with high prices, but that should come as a lump-sum payment that isn’t tied to how much energy they are consuming.

“The key will be to let the price signal work,” Mr. Gros said in a paper published this week, which argued that high energy prices could result in lower demand in Europe and Asia, reducing the need for Russian natural gas. “Energy must be expensive so that people save energy,” he said.

Ms. von der Leyen’s slides suggest the EU hopes to replace 60 billion cubic meters of Russian gas with alternative suppliers, including suppliers of liquefied natural gas, by the end of this year. Another 27 billion cubic meters could be replaced through a combination of hydrogen and EU production of biomethane, according to the slide deck.

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Amur-Heihe ETL Power Supply Tripling will expand Russia-China electricity exports, extending 750 MW DC full-load hours to stabilize northeast China grids amid coal shortages, peak demand spikes, and cross-border energy security concerns.

Key Points

Russia will triple electricity via Amur-Heihe ETL, boosting 750 MW DC operations to relieve shortages in northeast China.

✅ 500 kV converter station increases full-load hours from 5 to 16

✅ Supports Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Jilin grids amid coal shortfall

✅ Cross-border 750 MW DC link enhances reliability, peak demand coverage

Russia will triple electricity supplies via the Amur-Heihe electric transmission line (ETL) starting October 1, China Central Television has reported, a move seen within broader shifts in China's electricity sector by observers.

"Starting October 1, the overhead convertor substation of 500 kW (750 MW DC) will increase its daily time of operation with full loading from 5 to 16 hours per day," the TV channel said.

"This measure will make it possible to dramatically ease the situation with the electricity supply," the report said. Electricity from this converting station is used in three northeastern provinces of China - Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin, while regional markets are strained as India rations coal supplies amid surging demand today. In 29 years, Russia supplied over 30 bln kilowatt hours of electricity, according to the channel.

The Amur-Heihe overhead transnational power line was constructed for increasing electricity exports to China, where projections see electricity to meet 60% of energy use by 2060 according to Shell. It was commissioned in 2012. Its maximum capacity is 750 MW.

China’s Jiemian News reported on September 27 that, amid nationwide power cuts affecting grids, 20 regions were limited in electricity supplies to a various extent due to the ongoing coal deficit. In particular, in China’s northeastern provinces, restrictions on power consumption were imposed not only on industrial enterprises, but also on households, as well as on office premises, raising concerns for U.S. solar supply chains among downstream manufacturers.

Later, China’s financial media Zhongxin Jingwei noted that the coal deficit had been triggered by price hikes brought on by tightened national environmental standards and efforts to reduce coal power production across the country. Reduced coal imports amid disruptions in the work of foreign suppliers due to the coronavirus pandemic was an additional reason, and earlier power demand drops as factories shuttered compounded imbalances.
 

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