Future for coal becomes brighter

US Summer Grid Blackout Risk: NERC and FERC warn of strained reliability as drought, heat waves, and transmission constraints hit MISO, hydro, and renewables, elevating blackout exposure and highlighting demand response and storage solutions.

Key Points

A forecast of summer power shortfalls across the US grid, driven by heat, drought, transmission limits, and a changing resource mix.

✅ NERC and FERC warn of elevated blackout risk and reliability gaps.

✅ MISO region strained by drought, heat, and limited hydro.

✅ Mitigations: demand response, storage, and stronger transmission.

Just when it didn’t seem things couldn’t get worse — gasoline at $5 to $8 a gallon, supply shortages in everything from baby formula to new cars — comes the devastating news that many of us will endure electricity blackouts this summer, and that the U.S. has more blackouts than other developed nations according to one study.

The alarm was sounded by the nonprofit North American Electric Reliability Corp. and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, following a recent power grid report card highlighting vulnerabilities.

The North American electric grid is the largest machine on earth and the most complex, incorporating everything from the wonky pole you see at the roadside with a bird’s nest of wires to some of the most sophisticated engineering ever devised. It runs in real-time, even more so than the air traffic control system: All the airplanes in the sky don’t have to land at the same time, but electricity must be there at the flick of every switch.

Except it may not always be there this summer. Rod Kuckro, a respected energy journalist, says it depends on Mother Nature, with extreme weather impacts increasingly straining the grid, but the prognosis isn’t good.

Speaking on “White House Chronicle,” the weekly news and public affairs program on PBS that I host and produce, Kuckro said: “There is a confluence of factors that could affect energy supply across the majority of the (lower) 48 states. These are continued reduced hydroelectric production in the West, and the continued drought in the Southwest.”

The biggest threat to power supply, according to the NERC and the FERC, is in the vast central region, reaching from Manitoba in Canada, where grids are increasingly exposed to harsh weather in recent years, down to the Gulf of Mexico. It is served by the regional transmission organization, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator.

These operational entities are nonprofit companies that organize and distribute their regions’ bulk power for utilities. In California, it is the California Independent System Operator, working to keep the lights on as the state enters a new energy era; in the Mid-Atlantic, it is PJM; and in the Northeast, it is the New England System Independent Operator. They generate no power, but they control power flows and could initiate brownouts and blackouts.

With record storm activity and high temperatures predicted this summer, blackouts are likely to be deadly. The old, the young and the sick are all vulnerable. If the electric supply fails, with it goes everything from air conditioning to refrigeration to lights and even the ability to pump gas or access money from ATMs.

The United States, along with other modern nations, runs on electricity and when that falls short, it is catastrophic. It is chaos writ large, especially if the failure lasts more than a few hours.

On the same episode of “White House Chronicle,” Daniel Brooks, vice president of integrated grid and energy systems at the Electric Power Research Institute, also referred to a “confluence of factors” contributing to the impending electricity crisis. Brooks said, “We’re going through a significant change in terms of the energy mix and resources, and the way those resources behave under certain weather conditions.”

If power supply is stressed this summer, change in the generating mix will get a lot of political attention. At heart is the switch from fossil fuel generation to renewables. If there are power outages, a political storm will ensue. The Biden administration will be accused of speeding the switch to renewables, although the utilities don’t say that.

The weather is deteriorating, and, as experts note, the grid’s biggest challenge isn’t demand but climate change pressures that compound risks, and the grid is stretched in dealing with new realities as well as coping with old bugaboos, like the extreme difficulty in building transmission lines. Better transmission would relieve a lot of grid stress.

Peter Londa, president of Tantalus Systems, which helps its 260 utility customers digitize and cope with the new realities, explained some of the difficulties facing the utilities not only in the shifting sources of generation but also in the new shape of the electric demand. For example, he said, electric vehicles, particularly the much-awaited Ford F-150 Lightning pickup, could be an asset to homeowners and utilities, as California increasingly turns to batteries to stabilize its grid. During a blackout, their EVs could be used to power their homes for days. They could be a source of storage if thousands of owners signed up with their utilities in a storage program.

The fact is that utilities are facing three major shifts: in the generation to wind and solar, in customer demand, and especially in weather. Mother Nature is on a rampage and we all must adjust to that.
 

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Philippines coal dependency underscores energy transition challenges, climate change risks, and air pollution, as rising electricity demand, fossil fuels, and emissions shape policy shifts toward renewable energy, grid reliability, and sustainable development.

Key Points

It is rising reliance on coal for power, driven by demand and cost, with climate, air pollution, and policy risks.

✅ Driven by rising demand, affordability, and grid reliability.

✅ Worsens emissions, air pollution, and public health burdens.

✅ Policy shifts aim at renewable energy, efficiency, and standards.

In a striking development, the Philippines has surpassed China and Indonesia to become the nation most dependent on coal-generated power in recent years. This shift highlights significant implications for the country's energy strategy, environmental policies, and its commitment to sustainable development, and comes as global power demand continues to surge worldwide.

Rising Dependency on Coal

The Philippines' increasing reliance on coal-generated power is driven by several factors, including rapid economic growth, rising electricity demand, and regional uncertainties in China's electricity sector that influence fuel markets, and the perceived affordability and reliability of coal as an energy source. Coal has historically been a key component of the Philippines' energy mix, providing a stable supply of electricity to support industrialization and urbanization efforts.

Environmental and Health Impacts

Despite its economic benefits, coal-generated power comes with significant environmental and health costs, especially as soaring electricity and coal use amplifies exposure to pollution. Coal combustion releases greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, contributing to global warming and climate change. Additionally, coal-fired power plants emit pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter, which pose health risks to nearby communities and degrade air quality.

Policy and Regulatory Landscape

The Philippines' energy policies have evolved to address the challenges posed by coal dependency while promoting sustainable alternatives. The government has introduced initiatives to encourage renewable energy development, improve energy efficiency, and, alongside stricter emissions standards on coal-fired power plants, is evaluating nuclear power for inclusion in the energy mix to meet future demand. However, balancing economic growth with environmental protection remains a complex and ongoing challenge.

International and Domestic Pressures

Internationally, there is growing pressure on countries to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and transition towards cleaner energy sources as part of global climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, illustrated by the United Kingdom's plan to end coal power within its grid. The Philippines' status as the most coal-dependent nation underscores the urgency for policymakers to accelerate the shift towards renewable energy and reduce carbon emissions to mitigate climate impacts.

Challenges and Opportunities

Transitioning away from coal-generated power presents both challenges and opportunities for the Philippines. Challenges include overcoming entrenched interests in the coal industry, addressing energy security concerns, and navigating the economic implications of energy transition, particularly as clean energy investment in developing nations has recently declined, adding financial headwinds. However, embracing renewable energy offers opportunities to diversify the energy mix, reduce dependence on imported fuels, create green jobs, and improve energy access in remote areas.

Community and Stakeholder Engagement

Engaging communities and stakeholders is crucial in shaping the Philippines' energy transition strategy. Local residents, environmental advocates, industry leaders, and policymakers play essential roles in fostering dialogue, raising awareness about the benefits of renewable energy, and advocating for policies that promote sustainable development and protect public health.

Future Outlook

The Philippines' path towards reducing coal dependency and advancing renewable energy is critical to achieving long-term sustainability and resilience against climate change impacts. By investing in renewable energy infrastructure, enhancing energy efficiency measures, and fostering innovation in clean technologies, as renewables poised to eclipse coal indicate broader momentum, the country can mitigate environmental risks, improve energy security, and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change.

Conclusion

As the Philippines surpasses China and Indonesia in coal-generated power dependency, the nation faces pivotal decisions regarding its energy future. Balancing economic growth with environmental stewardship requires strategic investments in renewable energy, robust policy frameworks, and proactive engagement with stakeholders to achieve a sustainable and resilient energy system. By prioritizing clean energy solutions, the Philippines can pave the way towards a greener and more sustainable future for generations to come.

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Shell's Industrial Electricity Supply Strategy targets UK and US industrial customers, leveraging gas-to-power, renewables, long-term PPAs, and energy transition momentum to disrupt utilities, cut costs, and secure demand in the evolving electricity market.

Key Points

Shell will sell power directly to industrial clients, leveraging gas, renewables, and PPAs to secure demand and pricing.

✅ Direct power sales to industrials in UK and US

✅ Leverages gas-to-power, renewables, and flexible sourcing

✅ Targets long-term PPAs, price stability, and demand security

Royal Dutch Shell’s decision to sell electricity direct to industrial customers is an intelligent and creative one. The shift is strategic and demonstrates that oil and gas majors are capable of adapting to a new world as the transition to a lower carbon economy develops. For those already in the business of providing electricity it represents a dangerous competitive threat. For the other oil majors it poses a direct challenge on whether they are really thinking about the future sufficiently strategically.

The move starts small with a business in the UK that will start trading early next year, in a market where the UK’s second-largest electricity operator has recently emerged, signaling intensifying competition. Shell will supply the business operations as a first step and it will then expand. But Britain is not the limit — Shell recently announced its intention of making similar sales in the US. Historically, oil and gas companies have considered a move into electricity as a step too far, with the sector seen as oversupplied and highly politicised because of sensitivity to consumer price rises. I went through three reviews during my time in the industry, each of which concluded that the electricity business was best left to someone else. What has changed? I think there are three strands of logic behind the strategy.

First, the state of the energy market. The price of gas in particular has fallen across the world over the last three years to the point where the International Energy Agency describes the current situation as a “glut”. Meanwhile, Shell has been developing an extensive range of gas assets, with more to come. In what has become a buyer’s market it is logical to get closer to the customer — establishing long-term deals that can soak up the supply, while options such as storing electricity in natural gas pipes gain attention in Europe. Given its reach, Shell could sign contracts to supply all the power needed by the UK’s National Health Service or with the public sector as a whole as well as big industrial users. It could agree long-term contracts with big businesses across the US.

To the buyers, Shell offers a high level of security from multiple sources with prices presumably set at a discount to the market. The mutual advantage is strong. Second, there is the transition to a lower carbon world. No one knows how fast this will move, but one thing is certain: electricity will be at the heart of the shift with power demand increasing in transportation, industry and the services sector as oil and coal are displaced. Shell, with its wide portfolio, can match inputs to the circumstances and policies of each location. It can match its global supplies of gas to growing Asian markets, including China’s 2060 electricity share projections, while developing a renewables-based electricity supply chain in Europe. The new company can buy supplies from other parts of the group or from outside. It has already agreed to buy all the power produced from the first Dutch offshore wind farm at Egmond aan Zee.

The move gives Shell the opportunity to enter the supply chain at any point — it does not have to own power stations any more than it now owns drilling rigs or helicopters. The third key factor is that the electricity market is not homogenous. The business of supplying power can be segmented. The retail market — supplying millions of households — may be under constant scrutiny, as efforts to fix the UK’s electricity grid keep infrastructure in the headlines, with suppliers vilified by the press and governments forced to threaten price caps but supplying power to industrial users is more stable and predictable, and done largely out of the public eye. The main industrial and commercial users are major companies well able to negotiate long-term deals.

Given its scale and reputation, Shell is likely to be a supplier of choice for industrial and commercial consumers and potentially capable of shaping prices. This is where the prospect of a powerful new competitor becomes another threat to utilities and retailers whose business models are already under pressure. In the European market in particular, electricity pricing mechanisms are evolving and public policies that give preference to renewables have undermined other sources of supply — especially those produced from gas. Once-powerful companies such as RWE and EON have lost much of their value as a result. In the UK, France and elsewhere, public and political hostility to price increases have made retail supply a risky and low-margin business at best. If the industrial market for electricity is now eaten away, the future for the existing utilities is desperate.

Shell’s move should raise a flag of concern for investors in the other oil and gas majors. The company is positioning itself for change. It is sending signals that it is now viable even if oil and gas prices do not increase and that it is not resisting the energy transition. Chief executive Ben van Beurden said last week that he was looking forward to his next car being electric. This ease with the future is rather rare. Shareholders should be asking the other players in the old oil and gas sector to spell out their strategies for the transition.

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Germany Solar-Plus-Storage Cost Parity signals grid parity as solar power with battery storage undercuts conventional electricity. Falling LCOE, policy incentives, and economies of scale accelerate the energy transition and decarbonization across Germany's power market.

Key Points

The point at which solar power with battery storage is cheaper than conventional grid electricity across Germany.

✅ Lower LCOE from tech advances and economies of scale

✅ EEG incentives and streamlined installs cut total costs

✅ Enhances energy security, reduces fossil fuel dependence

Germany, a global leader in renewable energy adoption, with clean energy supplying about half of its electricity in recent years, has reached a significant milestone: the cost of solar power combined with battery storage has now fallen below that of conventional electricity sources. This development marks a transformative shift in the energy landscape, showcasing the increasing affordability and competitiveness of renewable energy technologies and reinforcing Germany’s position as a pioneer in the transition to sustainable energy.

The decline in costs for solar power paired with battery storage represents a breakthrough in Germany’s energy sector, especially amid the recent solar power boost during the energy crisis, where the transition from traditional fossil fuels to cleaner alternatives has been a central focus. Historically, conventional power sources such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy have dominated electricity markets due to their established infrastructure and relatively stable pricing. However, the rapid advancements in solar technology and energy storage solutions are altering this dynamic, making renewable energy not only environmentally preferable but also economically advantageous.

Several factors contribute to the cost reduction of solar power with battery storage:

1. Technological Advancements: The technology behind solar panels and battery storage systems has evolved significantly over recent years. Solar panel efficiency has improved, allowing for greater energy generation from smaller installations. Similarly, cheaper batteries have advanced, with reductions in cost and increases in energy density and lifespan. These improvements mean that solar installations can produce more electricity and store it more effectively, enhancing their economic viability.

2. Economies of Scale: As demand for solar and battery storage systems has grown, manufacturers have scaled up production, leading to economies of scale. This scaling has driven down the cost of both solar panels and batteries, making them more affordable for consumers. As the market for these technologies expands, prices are expected to continue decreasing, further enhancing their competitiveness.

3. Government Incentives and Policies: Germany’s commitment to renewable energy has been supported by robust government policies and incentives. The country’s Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and other supportive measures, alongside efforts to remove barriers to PV in Berlin that could accelerate adoption, have provided financial incentives for the adoption of solar power and battery storage. These policies have encouraged investment in renewable technologies and facilitated their integration into the energy market, contributing to the overall reduction in costs.

4. Falling Installation Costs: The cost of installing solar power systems and battery storage has decreased as the industry has matured. Advances in installation techniques, increased competition among service providers, and streamlined permitting processes have all contributed to lower installation costs. This reduction in upfront expenses has made solar with battery storage more accessible and financially attractive to both residential and commercial consumers.

The economic benefits of solar power with battery storage becoming cheaper than conventional power are substantial. For consumers, this shift translates into lower electricity bills and reduced reliance on fossil fuels. Solar installations with battery storage allow households and businesses to generate their own electricity, store it for use during times of low sunlight, and even sell excess power back to the grid, reflecting how solar is reshaping electricity prices in Northern Europe as markets adapt. This self-sufficiency reduces exposure to fluctuating energy prices and enhances energy security.

For the broader energy market, the decreasing cost of solar power with battery storage challenges the dominance of conventional power sources. As renewable energy becomes more cost-effective, it creates pressure on traditional energy providers to adapt and invest in cleaner technologies, including responses to instances of negative electricity prices during renewable surpluses. This shift can accelerate the transition to a low-carbon energy system and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

Germany’s achievement also has implications for global energy markets. The country’s success in making solar with battery storage cheaper than conventional power serves as a model for other nations pursuing similar energy transitions. As the cost of renewable technologies continues to decline, other countries can leverage these advancements to enhance their own energy systems, reduce carbon emissions, and achieve energy independence amid over 30% of global electricity now from renewables trends worldwide.

The impact of this development extends beyond economics. It represents a significant step forward in addressing climate change and promoting sustainability. By reducing the cost of renewable energy technologies, Germany is accelerating the shift towards a cleaner and more resilient energy system. This progress aligns with the country’s ambitious climate goals and reinforces its role as a leader in global efforts to combat climate change.

Looking ahead, several challenges remain. The integration of renewable energy into existing energy infrastructure, grid stability, and the management of energy storage are all areas that require continued innovation and investment. However, the decreasing cost of solar power with battery storage provides a strong foundation for addressing these challenges and advancing the transition to a sustainable energy future.

In conclusion, the fact that solar power with battery storage in Germany has become cheaper than conventional power is a groundbreaking development with wide-ranging implications. It underscores the technological advancements, economic benefits, and environmental gains associated with renewable energy technologies. As Germany continues to lead the way in clean energy adoption, this achievement highlights the potential for renewable energy to drive global change and reshape the future of energy.

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Bangladesh Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant advances nuclear energy with IAEA support and ROSATOM construction, boosting energy security, baseload capacity, and grid reliability; 2400 MW units aid development, regulatory compliance, and newcomer infrastructure milestones.

Key Points

A 2400 MW nuclear project in Rooppur, built with IAEA guidance and ROSATOM, to boost Bangladesh's reliable power.

✅ Two units totaling 2400 MW for stable baseload supply

✅ IAEA Milestones and INIR reviews guide safe deployment

✅ ROSATOM builds; national regulator strengthens oversight

The beginning of construction at Bangladesh’s first nuclear power reactor on 30 November 2017 marked a significant milestone in the decade-long process to bring the benefits of nuclear energy to the world’s eighth most populous country. The IAEA has been supporting Bangladesh on its way to becoming the third ‘newcomer’ country to nuclear power in 30 years, following the United Arab Emirates in 2012 and Belarus in 2013.

Bangladesh is in the process of implementing an ambitious, multifaceted development programme to become a middle-income country by 2021 and a developed country by 2041. Vastly increased electricity production, with the goal of connecting 2.7 million more homes to the grid by 2021, is a cornerstone of this push for development, and nuclear energy will play a key role in this area, said Mohammad Shawkat Akbar, Managing Director of Nuclear Power Plant Company Bangladesh Limited. Bangladesh is also working to diversify its energy supply to enhance energy security, reduce its dependence on imports and on its limited domestic resources, he added.

#google# In the region, India's nuclear program is taking steps to get back on track, underscoring broader momentum.

“Bangladesh is introducing nuclear energy as a safe, environmentally friendly and economically viable source of electricity generation,” said Akbar.  The plant in Rooppur, 160 kilometres north-west of Dhaka, will consist of two units, with a combined power capacity of 2400 MW(e). It is being built by a subsidiary of Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation ROSATOM. The first unit is scheduled to come online in 2023 and the second in 2024, reflecting progress similar to the UK's latest nuclear power station developments.  “This project will enhance the development of the social, economic, scientific and technological potential of the country,” Akbar said.

The country’s goal of increased electricity production via nuclear energy will soon be a reality, Akbar said. “For 60 years, Bangladesh has had a dream of building its own nuclear power plant. The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant will provide not only a stable baseload of electricity, but it will enhance our knowledge and allow us to increase our economic efficiency.

Milestones for nuclear

Bangladesh is among around 30 countries that are considering, planning or starting the introduction of nuclear power, with milestones at nuclear projects worldwide offering context for this progress. The IAEA assists them in developing their programmes through the Milestones Approach — a methodology that provides guidance on working towards the establishment of nuclear power in a newcomer country, including the associated infrastructure. It focuses on pointing out gaps, if any, in countries’ progress towards the introduction of nuclear power.

The IAEA has been supporting Bangladesh in developing its nuclear power infrastructure, including in establishing a regulatory framework and developing a radioactive waste-management system. This support has been delivered under the IAEA technical cooperation programme and is partially funded through the Peaceful Uses Initiative.

Nuclear infrastructure is multifaceted, containing governmental, legal, regulatory and managerial components, in addition to the physical infrastructure. The Milestones Approach consists of three phases, with a milestone to be reached at the end of each.

The first phase involves considerations before a decision is taken to start a nuclear power programme and concludes with the official commitment to the programme. The second phase entails preparatory work for the contracting and construction of a nuclear power plant, as seen in Bulgaria's nuclear project planning, ending with the commencement of bids or contract negotiations for the construction. The final phase includes activities to implement the nuclear power plant, such as the final investment decision, contracting and construction. The duration of these phases varies by country, but they typically take between 10 and 15 years.

“The IAEA Milestones Approach is a guiding document and the Integrated Work Plan (IWP) is the important means of bringing all of the stakeholders in Bangladesh together to ensure the fulfilment of all safety, security, and safeguards requirements of the Rooppur NPP project,” said Akbar. “This IWP enabled Bangladesh to develop a holistic approach to implementing IAEA guidance as well as cooperating with national stakeholders and other bilateral partners towards the development of a national nuclear power programme.”

When completed, the two units of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant will have a combined power capacity of 2400 MW(e). (Photo: Arkady Sukhonin/Rosatom)

INIR Mission

The Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) is a holistic peer review to assist Member States in assessing the status of their national infrastructure for introducing nuclear power. The IAEA completed its first INIR mission to Bangladesh in November 2011, making recommendations on how to develop a plan to establish the nuclear infrastructure. Nearly five years later, in May 2016, a follow-up mission was conducted, which noted the progress made — Bangladesh had established a nuclear regulatory body, had chosen a site for the power plant and had completed site characterization and environmental impact assessment.

“The IAEA and other bodies, including those from experienced countries, can and do provide support, but the responsibility for safety and security will lie with the Government,” said Dohee Hahn, Director of the IAEA’s Division of Nuclear Power, at the ceremony for the pouring of the first nuclear safety-related concrete at Rooppur on 30 November 2017. “The IAEA stands ready to continue supporting Bangladesh in developing a safe, secure, peaceful and sustainable nuclear power programme.”

Supporting Infrastructure for Introducing a Nuclear Power Plant in Bangladesh: the IAEA Assists with the Review of Regulatory Guidance on Site Evaluation

How the IAEA Assists Newcomer Countries in Building Their Way to Sustainable Energy

"Exciting times for nuclear power," IAEA Director General Says

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Alberta Electricity Market Reform reshapes policy under the UCP, weighing a capacity market versus energy-only design, AESO reliability rules, renewables targets, coal phase-out, carbon pricing, consumer rates, and investment certainty before AUC decisions.

Key Points

Alberta Electricity Market Reform is the UCP plan to reassess capacity vs energy-only, renewables, and carbon pricing.

✅ Reviews capacity market timeline and AESO procurement

✅ Alters subsidies for renewables; slows wind and solar growth

✅ Adjusts industrial carbon levy; audits Balancing Pool losses

Hearings kicked off this week into the future of the province’s electricity market design, amid an electricity market reshuffle pledged by the province, but a high-stakes decision about the industry’s fate — affecting billions of dollars in investment and consumer costs — won’t be made inside the meeting room of the Alberta Utilities Commission.

Instead, it will take place in the office of Jason Kenney, as the incoming premier prepares to pivot away from the seismic reforms to Alberta’s electricity sector introduced by the Notley government.

The United Conservative Party has promised to adopt market-based policies, reflecting changes to how Alberta produces and pays for power, that will reset how the sector operates, from its approach to renewable energy and carbon pricing to re-evaluating the planned transition to an electricity “capacity market.”

“Every ball in electricity is up in the air right now,” Vittoria Bellissimo, of the Industrial Power Consumers Association of Alberta, said Tuesday during a break in the commission hearings.

Industry players are uncertain how quickly the UCP will change direction on power policies, but there’s little doubt Kenney’s government will take a strikingly different approach to the sector that keeps the lights on in Alberta.

“There’s some things they are going to change that are going to impact the electricity industry significantly,” said Duane Reid-Carlson, chief executive of consultancy EDC Associates.

“But I don’t think it’s going to be upheaval. I think the new government will proceed with caution because electricity is the foundation of our economy.”

Alberta’s electricity market has been turned on its head in recent years due to the recession, power prices dropping to near two-decade lows and several transformative policies initiated by the NDP.

The Notley government’s climate plan included an accelerated phase-out of all coal-fired generation and set targets for more renewable energy.

The most significant, but least-understood, move has been the planned shift to an electricity capacity market in 2021.

Under the strategy, generators will no longer solely be paid for the power produced and sold into the market; they will also receive payments for having electricity capacity available to the grid on demand.

The change was recommended by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) as a way to reduce price volatility and provide more reliability than the current energy-only market, which some argue needs more competition to deliver better outcomes.

The independent system operator and industry officials have spent more than two years planning the transition since the switch was announced in late 2016. Proposed rules for the new system, outlining market changes, are now being discussed at the Alberta Utilities Commission hearings.

However, there is no ironclad guarantee the system remake will go ahead following the UCP’s election victory last week — amid calls to scrap the overhaul from a Calgary retailer — it plans to study the issue further — while other substantive electricity changes are already in store.

The UCP has promised to end “costly subsidies” to renewable energy developments and abandon the NDP’s pledge to have such energy sources make up 30 per cent of all power generation by 2030.

It will remove the planned phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation, although federal regulations for a 2030 prohibition remain in place.

It will also ask the auditor general to conduct a special audit of the massive losses sustained by the province’s Balancing Pool due to power purchase arrangements being handed back to the agency three years ago.

While Kenney has pledged to cancel the provincewide carbon tax, a levy on large industrial greenhouse gas emitters (such has power plants) will still be charged, although at a reduced rate of $20 a tonne.

The biggest unknown remains the power market’s structure, which underpins how the entire system operates.

The UCP has promised to consult on the shift to the capacity market and report back to Albertans within 90 days.

The complex issue may sound like an eye-glazer, but it will have a profound effect on industry investment, as well as how much consumers pay on their monthly electricity bills.

A number of industry players worry the capacity market will lead AESO to procure more power than is necessary, foisting unnecessary costs onto all Albertans.

“I still have concerns for what the impact on consumers is going to be,” said energy market consultant Sheldon Fulton. “I’d love to see the capacity market go away.”

An analysis by EDC Associates found the transition to a capacity market will procure additional electricity before it’s needed, requiring consumers to pay up to 40 per cent more — an extra $1.4 billion — for power in 2021-22 than under the existing market structure.

“I don’t think there’s any prejudged outcome,” said Blake Shaffer, former head trader at TransAlta Corp. and a fellow-in-residence at the C.D. Howe Institute.

“But it really matters about getting this right.”

Evan Bahry, executive director of the Independent Power Producers Society of Alberta, said the fact the UCP’s review was confined to just 90 days is helpful, as it avoids throwing the entire industry into a prolonged period of uncertainty.

As for the greening of Alberta’s power grid, amid growing attention to clean grids and storage, the demise of the NDP’s Renewable Electricity Program will likely slow down the rapid pace of wind and solar development. But it’s unlikely to stop the growth trend as costs continue to fall for such developments.

“Renewables over the last number of years have evolved to the point that they make sense on a subsidy-free basis,” said Dan Balaban, CEO of Greengate Power Corp., which has developed 480 MW of wind power in Alberta and Ontario.

“There is a path to clean electricity ahead.”

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

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