Wind power is not a panacea

Power Grid Attacks surge across substations and transmission lines, straining critical infrastructure as DHS and FBI cite vandalism, domestic extremists, and cybersecurity risks impacting resilience, outages, and grid reliability nationwide.

Key Points

Power Grid Attacks are deliberate strikes on substations and lines to disrupt power and weaken grid reliability.

✅ Physical attacks rose across multiple states and utilities.

✅ DHS and FBI warn of threats to critical infrastructure.

✅ Substation security and grid resilience upgrades urged.

Even before Christmas Day attacks on power substations in five states in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast, similar incidents of attacks, vandalism and suspicious activity were on the rise.

Federal energy reports through August – the most recent available – show an increase in physical attacks at electrical facilities across the nation this year, continuing a trend seen since 2017.

At least 108 human-related events were reported during the first eight months of 2022, compared with 99 in all of 2021 and 97 in 2020. More than a dozen cases of vandalism have been reported since September.

The attacks have prompted a flurry of calls to better protect the nation's power grid, with a renewed focus on protecting the U.S. power grid across sectors, but experts have warned for more than three decades that stepped-up protection was needed.

Attacks on power stations on the rise 
Twice this year, the Department of Homeland Security warned "a heightened threat environment" remains for the nation, including its critical infrastructure amid reports of suspected Russian breaches of power plant systems. 

At least 20 actual physical attacks were reported, compared with six in all of 2021. 
Suspicious-activity reports jumped three years ago, nearly doubling in 2020 to 32 events. In the first eight months of this year, 34 suspicious incidents were reported.
Total human-related incidents – including vandalism, suspicious activity and cyber events such as Russian hackers and U.S. utilities in recent years – are on track to be the highest since the reports started showing such activity in 2011.

Attacks reported in at least 5 states
Since September, attacks or potential attacks have been reported on at least 18 additional substations and one power plant in Florida, Oregon, Washington and the Carolinas. Several involved firearms.

• In Florida: Six "intrusion events" occurred at Duke Energy substations in September, resulting in at least one brief power outage, according to the News Nation television network, which cited a report the utility sent to the Energy Department. Duke Energy spokesperson Ana Gibbs confirmed a related arrest, but the company declined to comment further.
• In Oregon and Washington state: Substations were attacked at least six times in November and December, with firearms used in some cases, local news outlets reported. On Christmas Day, four additional substations were vandalized in Washington State, cutting power to more than 14,000 customers.
• In North Carolina: A substation in Maysville was vandalized on Nov. 11. On Dec. 3, shootings that authorities called a "targeted attack" damaged two power substations in Moore County, leaving tens of thousands without power amid freezing temperatures.
• In South Carolina: Days later, gunfire was reported near a hydropower plant, but police said the shooting was a "random act."

It's not yet clear whether any of the attacks were coordinated. After the North Carolina attacks, a coordinating council between the electric power industry and the federal government ordered a security evaluation.

FBI mum on its investigations
The FBI is looking into some of the attacks, including cyber intrusions where hackers accessed control rooms in past cases, but it hasn't said how many it's investigating or where. 

Shelley Lynch, a spokesperson for the FBI's Charlotte field office, confirmed the bureau was investigating the North Carolina attack. The Kershaw County Sheriff's Office reported the FBI was looking into the South Carolina incident.

Utilities in Oregon and Washington told news outlets they were cooperating with the FBI, but spokespeople for the agency's Seattle and Portland field offices said they couldn't confirm or deny an investigation.

Could domestic extremists be involved?
In January, the Department of Homeland Security said domestic extremists had been developing "credible, specific plans" since at least 2020, including a Neo-Nazi plot against power stations detailed in a federal complaint, and would continue to "encourage physical attacks against electrical infrastructure."

In February, three men who ascribed to white supremacy and Neo-Nazism pleaded guilty to federal crimes related to a scheme to attack the grid with rifles.

In a news release, Timothy Langan, assistant director of the FBI’s Counterterrorism Division, said the defendants "wanted to attack regional power substations and expected the damage would lead to economic distress and civil unrest."

Why is the power grid so hard to protect?
Industry experts, federal officials and others have warned in one report after another since at least 1990 that the power grid was at risk, and a recent grid vulnerability report card highlights dangerous weak points, said Granger Morgan, an engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University who chaired three National Academies of Sciences reports.

The reports urged state and federal agencies to collaborate to make the system more resilient to attacks and natural disasters such as hurricanes and storms. 

"The system is inherently vulnerable, with the U.S. grid experiencing more blackouts than other developed nations in one study. It's spread all across the countryside," which makes the lines and substations easy targets, Morgan said. The grid includes more than 7,300 power plants, 160,000 miles of high-voltage power lines and 55,000 transmission substations.

One challenge is that there's no single entity whose responsibilities span the entire system, Morgan said. And the risks are only increasing as the grid expands to include renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, he said. 

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BC Hydro Grid Modernization accelerates clean energy and electrification, upgrading transmission lines, substations, and hydro dams to deliver renewable power for EVs and heat pumps, strengthen grid reliability, and enable industrial decarbonization in British Columbia.

Key Points

A $36B, 10-year plan to expand and upgrade B.C.'s clean grid for electrification, reliability, and industrial growth.

✅ $36B for lines, substations, and hydro dam upgrades

✅ Enables EV charging, heat pumps, and smart demand response

✅ Prioritizes industrial electrification and Indigenous partnerships

In a significant move towards a clean energy transition, British Columbia has announced a substantial $36-billion investment to enlarge and upgrade its electricity grid over the next ten years. The announcement last Tuesday from BC Hydro indicates a substantial 50 percent increase from its prior capital plan. A major portion of this investment is directed towards new consumer connections and improving current infrastructure, including substations, transmission lines, and hydro dams for more efficient power generation.

The catalyst behind this major investment is the escalating demand for clean energy across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors in British Columbia. Projections show a 15 percent rise in electricity demand by 2030. According to the Canadian Climate Institute's models, achieving Canada’s climate goals will require extensive electrification across various sectors, raising questions about a net-zero grid by 2050 nationwide.

BC Hydro is planning substantial upgrades to the electrical grid to meet the needs of a growing population, decreasing industry carbon emissions, and the shift towards clean technology. This is vital, especially as the province works towards improving housing affordability and as households face escalating costs from the impacts of climate change and increasing exposure to harsh weather events. Affordable, reliable power and access to clean technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps are becoming increasingly important for households.

British Columbia is witnessing a significant shift from fossil fuels to clean electricity in powering homes, vehicles, and workplaces. Electric vehicle usage in B.C. has increased twentyfold in the past six years. Last year, one in every five new light-duty passenger vehicles sold in B.C. was electric – the highest rate in Canada. Additionally, over 200,000 B.C. homes are now equipped with heat pumps, indicating a growing preference for the province’s 98 percent renewable electricity.

The investment also targets reducing industrial emissions and attracting industrial investment. For instance, the demand for transmission along the North Coastline, from Prince George to Terrace, is expected to double this decade, especially from sectors like mining. Mining companies are increasingly looking for locations with access to clean power to reduce their carbon footprint.

This grid enhancement plan in B.C. is reflective of similar initiatives in provinces like Quebec and the legacy of Manitoba hydro history in building provincial systems. Hydro-Québec announced a substantial $155 to $185 billion investment in its 2035 Action Plan last year, aimed at supporting decarbonization and economic growth. By 2050, Hydro-Québec predicts a doubling of electricity demand in the province.

Both utilities’ strategies focus on constructing new facilities and enhancing existing assets, like upgrading dams and transmission lines. Hydro-Québec, for instance, includes energy efficiency goals in its plan to double customer savings and potentially save over 3,500 megawatts of power.

However, with this level of investment, provinces need to engage in dialogue about priorities and the optimal use of clean electricity resources, with concepts like macrogrids offering potential benefits. Quebec, for instance, has shifted from a first-come, first-served basis to a strategic review process for significant new industrial power requests.

B.C. is also moving towards strategic prioritization in its energy strategy, evident in its recent moratorium on new connections for virtual currency mining due to their high energy consumption.

Indigenous partnership and leadership are also key in this massive grid expansion. B.C.’s forthcoming Call for Power and Quebec’s financial partnerships with Indigenous communities indicate a commitment to collaborative approaches. British Columbia has also allocated $140 million to support Indigenous-led power projects.

Regarding the rest of Canada, electricity planning varies in provinces with deregulated markets like Ontario and Alberta. However, these provinces are adapting too, and the federal government has funded an Atlantic grid study to improve regional planning efforts. Ontario, for example, has provided clear guidance to its system operator, mirroring the ambition in B.C. and Quebec.

Utilities are rapidly working to not only expand and modernize energy grids but also to make them more resilient, affordable, and smarter, as demonstrated by recent California grid upgrades funding announcements across the sector. Hydro-Québec focuses on grid reliability and affordability, while B.C. experiments with smart-grid technologies.

Both Ontario and B.C. have programs encouraging consumers to reduce consumption in real-time, demonstrating the potential of demand-side management. A recent instance in Alberta showed how customer participation could prevent rolling blackouts by reducing demand by 150 megawatts.

This is a crucial time for all Canadian provinces to develop larger, smarter energy grids, including a coordinated western Canadian electricity grid approach for a sustainable future. Utilities are making significant strides towards this goal.
 

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Newfoundland and Labrador Energy Efficiency faces low rankings yet signs of progress: heat pumps, EV charging networks, stricter building codes, electrification to tap Muskrat Falls power and cut greenhouse gas emissions and energy poverty.

Key Points

Policies and programs improving N.L.'s energy use via electrification, EVs, heat pumps, and stronger building codes.

✅ Ranks last provincially but showing policy momentum

✅ Heat pump grants and EV charging network underway

✅ Stronger building codes and electrification can cut emissions

Ah, another day, another depressing study that places Newfoundland and Labrador as lagging behind the rest of Canada.

We've been in this place before — least-fit kids, lowest birthrate — and now we can add a new dubious distinction to the pile: a ranking of the provinces according to energy efficiency placed Newfoundland and Labrador last.

Efficiency Canada released its first-ever provincial scorecard Nov. 20, comparing energy efficiency policies among the provinces. With energy efficiency a key part of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Newfoundland and Labrador sat in 10th place, noted for its lack of policies on everything from promoting EV uptake in Atlantic Canada to improving efficient construction codes.

But before you click away to a happier story (about, say, a feline Instagram superstar) one of the scorecard's authors says there's a silver lining to the statistics.

"It's not that Newfoundland and Labrador is doing anything badly; it's just that it could do more," said Brendan Haley, the policy director at Efficiency Canada, a new think tank based at Carleton University.

"There's just a general lack of attention to implementing efficiency policies relative to other jurisdictions, including New Brunswick's EV rebate programs on transportation."

Looking at the scorecard and comparing N.L. with British Columbia, which snagged the No. 1 spot, isn't a great look. B.C. scored 56 points out of a possible 100, while N.L. got just 15.

Haley pointed out that B.C.'s provincial government is charting progress toward 2032, when all new builds will have to be net-zero energy ready; that is, buildings that can produce as much clean energy as they consume.  

While it might not be feasible to emulate that to a T here, Haley said the province could be mandating better energy efficiency standards for new, large building projects, and, at the same time, promote electrification of such projects as a way to soak up some of that surplus Muskrat Falls electricity.

Staring down Muskrat's 'extraordinary' pressure on N.L. electricity rates

It's impossible to talk about energy efficiency in N.L. without considering that dam dilemma. As Muskrat Falls comes online, likely at the end of 2020, customer power rates are set to rise in order to pay for it, and the province is still trying to figure out the headache that is rate mitigation.

"There is a strategic choice to be made in Newfoundland and Labrador," Haley told CBC Radio's On The Go.

While having more customers using Muskrat Falls power can help with rate mitigation, including through initiatives like N.L.'s EV push to grow demand, Haley noted simply using its excess electricity for the sake of it isn't a great goal.

"That should not be an excuse, I think, to almost have a policy of wasting energy on purpose, or saying that we don't need programs that help save electricity anymore," he said.

Energy poverty
Lots of N.L. homeowners are currently feeling a chill from the spectre of rising electricity rates.

Of course, that draft could be coming from a poorly insulated and heated house, as Efficiency Canada noted 38 per cent of all households in N.L. live in what it calls "energy poverty," where they spend more than six per cent of their after-tax income on energy — that's the second highest such rate in the country.

That poverty speaks for a need for N.L.to boost efficiency incentives for vulnerable populations, although Haley noted the government is making progress. The province recently expanded its home energy savings program, doubling in the last budget year to $2 million, which gives grants to low income households for upgrades like insulation.

Can you guess what products are selling like hotcakes as Muskrat Falls looms? Heat pumps

And since Efficiency Canada compiled its scorecard, the province has introduced a $1-million heat pump program, in which 1,000 homeowners could receive $1,000 toward the purchase of a heat pump. 

That program began accepting applications Oct. 15, and one month in, has had 682 people apply, according to the Department of Municipal Affairs and Environment, along with thousands of inquiries.

Heat pump popularity
Even without that program, heat pump sales have skyrocketed in the province since 2017. That popularity doesn't come as much of a surprise to Darren Brake, the president of KSAB Construction in Corner Brook.

With more than two decades in the home building business, he's been seeing consumer demand for home energy efficiency rise to the point where a year ago, his company transitioned into only building third-party certified energy efficient homes.

"Everybody's really concerned about the escalating power costs and energy costs, I assume because of Muskrat Falls," he said.

"It's evolving now, as we speak. Everybody is all about that monthly payment."

Brake uses spray foam installation in every house he builds, to seal up any potential leaks. Without sealing the building envelope, he says, a heat pump is far less efficient. (Lindsay Bird/CBC)
And in the weakest housing market in the province in half a century, Brake has been steadily moving his, building and selling seven in the last year.

Brake's houses include heat pumps, but he said the real savings come from their heavily insulated walls, roof and floors. Homeowners looking to install a heat pump in their leaky old house, he said, won't see lower power bills in quite the same way.

"They are energy efficient, but it's more about the building envelope to make a home efficient and easy to heat. You can put a heat pump in an older home that leaks a lot of air, and you won't get the same results," he said.

Charging network coming
The other big piece to the efficiency puzzle — in the scorecard's eyes — is electric vehicles. Those could, again, use some of that Muskrat Falls energy, as well as curtail gas guzzling, but Efficiency Canada pointed to a lack of policies and incentives surrounding electrifying transportation, such as Nova Scotia's vehicle-to-grid pilot that illustrates innovation elsewhere.

Unlike Quebec or B.C., the province doesn't offer a rebate for buying EVs, even as N.W.T. encourages EVs through targeted measures, and while electric vehicles got loud applause at the House of Assembly last week, it was absent of any policy or announcement beyond the province unveiling a EV licence plate design to be used in the near future.

Electric-vehicle charging network planned for N.L. in 2020

But since the scorecard was tallied, NL Hydro has unveiled plans for a Level 3 charging network for EVs across the island, dependent on funding, with N.L.'s first fast-charging network seen as just the beginning for local drivers.

NL Hydro says while its request for proposals for an island-wide charging network closed earlier in November, there is no progress update yet, even as N.B.'s fast-charging rollout advances along the Trans-Canada. (Credit: iStock/Getty Images)
That cash appears to still be in limbo, as "we are still progressing through the funding process," said an NL Hydro spokesperson in an email, with no "additional details to release at this time."

Still, the promise of a charging network — plus the swift uptake on the heat pump program — could boost N.L.'s energy efficiency scorecard next time it's tallied, said Haley.

"It is encouraging to see the province moving forward on smart and efficient electrification," he said.

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FERC DER Aggregation advances debates over distributed energy resources as Congress presses action on Order 841, grid resilience, and wholesale market access, including rooftop solar, storage, and virtual power plant participation across PJM and ISO-NE.

Key Points

FERC DER Aggregation enables grouped distributed resources to join wholesale markets, providing capacity and flexibility.

✅ Opens wholesale market access for aggregated DER portfolios

✅ Aligns with Order 841, storage, and grid resilience goals

✅ Raises jurisdictional questions between FERC and state regulators

The Monday letter from Congressional Democrats illustrates growing frustration in Washington over the lack of FERC action on multiple power sector issues, including the aging U.S. grid and related challenges.

Last May, after the FERC technical conference, 16 Democratic Senators wrote to then-Chairman Kevin McIntyre urging him to develop guidance for grid operators on aggregated DERs.

In July, McIntyre responded, saying that FERC was "diligently reviewing the record," but the commission has taken no action since.

Since then, "DER adoption and renewable energy aggregation have continued to grow," House and Senate lawmakers wrote in their identical Monday letters, "driven not only by state and federal policies, but consumer interest in choosing cost-competitive technologies such as rooftop solar, smart thermostats and customer-sited energy generation and storage, reflecting key utility trends in the sector."

The lawmakers wrote they were "encouraged" by FERC Chairman Neil Chatterjee's comments in June 2018, writing that he "specifically cited the role DERs will play in our continued grid transition."

In that speech at the S&P Global Platts 2018 Transmission Planning and Development Conference, Chatterjee noted "growing interest" in non-transmission alternatives, including "DERs and storage."

"How the Commission treats filings associated with those first-of-kind projects could prove an important factor in investors’ assessments of whether similar non-traditional projects are bankable or not — and more broadly signal whether FERC is open to innovation in the transmission sector,” he said.

In addition to the DER order and rehearing decision on Order 841, FERC has multiple other power sector initiatives that have not seen official action in months, even as major changes to electricity pricing are debated by stakeholders.

The highest profile is its open proceeding on grid resilience, set up last January after FERC rejected a coal and nuclear bailout proposal from the Department of Energy. In October, the CEO of the PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest wholesale power market, urged FERC to issue a final order in the docket, calling for "leadership" from the commission.

Chatterjee, however, has not indicated when FERC could decide on the case. In December, Commissioner Rich Glick told a Washington audience he is "not entirely sure where the chairman wants to go with that proceeding yet."

Outside of resilience, FERC also has open reviews of both its pipeline certificate policy and implementation of the Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act, a key law supporting renewable energy. McIntrye set those reviews in motion during his tenure as chairman, but after his death in January the timing of both remains unclear.

In recent months, Chatterjee has also delayed FERC votes on major export facilities for liquefied natural gas and a political spending case involving PJM after impasses between Republicans and Democrats on FERC.

Two members from each party currently sit on the commission. That allows Democrats to deadlock commission votes on natural gas facilities and other issues — a partisan divide on display this week when they clashed with the chairman over offshore wind.

As the commission considers final guidance on DERs, the boundaries of federal jurisdiction are likely to be a key issue. At the technical conference, states from the Midcontinent ISO argued FERC should allow them to choose whether to let aggregated DERs participate in retail and wholesale markets. Other states argued the value proposition of distributed resources may rely on that sort of dual participation.

Despite the lack of action from FERC, some grid operators are moving forward with aggregated distributed resources in New England market reform efforts and elsewhere, demonstrating momentum. Last week, a residential solar-plus-storage aggregation cleared the ISO-NE capacity auction for the first time, committing to provide 20 MW of capacity beginning in 2022.

On the Senate side, Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse, R.I., and Ed Markey, Mass., led the letter to FERC. In the House, Reps. Peter Welch, Vt., and Mike Levin, Calif., led the signatories.

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Ofgem Renewables Obligations drive supplier payments for renewables fees, feed-in tariffs, and renewable generation, with non-payment risking supply licences amid the price cap and volatile wholesale prices across the UK energy market.

Key Points

Mandatory payments by suppliers funding renewables via feed-in tariffs; non-payment can trigger supply licence revoking.

✅ Covers Renewables Obligation and Feed-in Tariff scheme compliance.

✅ Non-payment can lead to Ofgem action and licence loss.

✅ Affected by price cap and wholesale price volatility.

Seven small British energy suppliers owe a total of 34 million pounds ($43.74 million) in renewables fees, amid a renewables backlog that has stalled projects, and could face losing their supply licences if they cannot pay, energy regulator Ofgem reports.

Under Britain’s energy market rules, suppliers of energy must meet so-called renewables obligations and feed-in tariffs, including households' ability to sell solar power back to energy firms, which are imposed on them by the government to help fund renewable power generation.

Several small energy companies have gone bust over the past two years, a trend echoed by findings from a global utility study on renewable priorities, as they struggled to pay the renewables fees and as their profits were affected by a price cap on the most commonly used tariffs and fluctuating wholesale prices, even as a 10 GW contract brings new renewable capacity onto the UK grid.

Ofgem has called on the companies to make necessary payments by Oct. 31, as moves to offer community-generated power to all UK customers progress.

“If they do not pay Ofgem could start the process of revoking their licences to supply energy,” it said in a statement, as offshore wind power continues to scale nationwide.

The seven suppliers are, amid debates over clean energy impacts, Co-Operative Energy Limited; Flow Energy Limited; MA Energy Limited; Nabuh Energy Limited; Robin Hood Energy Limited; Symbio Energy Limited and Tonik Energy Limited. ($1 = 0.7773 pounds)

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New Zealand Energy Transition will electrify transport and industry with renewables, grid-scale solar, wind farms, geothermal, batteries, demand response, pumped hydro, and transmission upgrades to manage dry-year risk and winter peak loads.

Key Points

A shift to renewables and smart demand to decarbonise transport and industry while ensuring reliable, affordable power.

✅ Electrifies transport and industrial heat with renewables

✅ Uses demand response, batteries, and pumped hydro for resilience

✅ Targets 99%+ renewable supply, managing dry-year and peak loads

As fossil fuels are phased out over the coming decades, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) suggests electricity will take up much of the slack, aligning with the vision of a sustainable electric planet powering our vehicle fleet and replacing coal and gas in industrial processes.

But can the electricity system really provide for this increased load where and when it is needed? The answer is “yes”, with some caveats.

Our research examines climate change impacts on the New Zealand energy system. It shows we’ll need to pay close attention to demand as well as supply. And we’ll have to factor in the impacts of climate change when we plan for growth in the energy sector.

Demand for electricity to grow
While electricity use has not increased in NZ in the past decade, many agencies project steeply rising demand in coming years. This is partly due to both increasing population and gross domestic product, but mostly due to the anticipated electrification of transport and industry, which could result in a doubling of demand by mid-century.

It’s hard to get a sense of the scale of the new generation required, but if wind was the sole technology employed to meet demand by 2050, between 10 and 60 new wind farms would be needed nationwide.

Of course, we won’t only build wind farms, as renewables are coming on strong and grid-scale solar, rooftop solar, new geothermal, some new small hydro plant and possibly tidal and wave power will all have a part to play.

Managing the demand
As well as providing more electricity supply, demand management and batteries will also be important. Our modelling shows peak demand (which usually occurs when everyone turns on their heaters and ovens at 6pm in winter) could be up to 40% higher by 2050 than it is now.

But meeting this daily period of high demand could see expensive plant sitting idle for much of the time (with the last 25% of generation capacity only used about 10% of the time).

This is particularly a problem in a renewable electricity system when the hydro lakes are dry, as hydro is one of the few renewable electricity sources that can be stored during the day (as water behind the dam) and used over the evening peak (by generating with that stored water).

Demand response will therefore be needed. For example, this might involve an industrial plant turning off when there is too much load on the electricity grid.

But by 2050, a significant number of households will also need smart appliances and meters that automatically use cheaper electricity at non-peak times. For example, washing machines and electric car chargers could run automatically at 2am, rather than 6pm when demand is high.

Our modelling shows a well set up demand response system could mitigate dry-year risk (when hydro lakes are low on water) in coming decades, where currently gas and coal generation is often used.

Instead of (or as well as) having demand response and battery systems to combat dry-year risk, a pumped storage system could be built. This is where water is pumped uphill when hydro lake inflows are plentiful, and used to generate electricity during dry periods.

The NZ Battery project is currently considering the potential for this in New Zealand, and debates such as whether we would use Site C's electricity offer relevant lessons.

Almost (but not quite) 100% renewable
Dry-year risk would be greatly reduced and there would be “greater greenhouse gas emissions savings” if the Interim Climate Change Committee’s (ICCC) 2019 recommendation to aim for 99% renewable electricity was adopted, rather than aiming for 100%.

A small amount of gas-peaking plant would therefore be retained. The ICCC said going from 99% to 100% renewable electricity by overbuilding would only avoid a very small amount of carbon emissions, at a very high cost.

Our modelling supports this view. The CCC’s draft advice on the issue also makes the point that, although 100% renewable electricity is the “desired end point”, timing is important to enable a smooth transition.

Despite these views, Energy Minister Megan Woods has said the government will be keeping the target of a 100% renewable electricity sector by 2030.

Impacts of climate change
In future, the electricity system will have to respond to changing climate patterns as well, becoming resilient to climate risks over time.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicts winds will increase in the South Island and decrease in the far north in coming decades.

Inflows to the biggest hydro lakes will get wetter (more rain in their headwaters), and their seasonality will change due to changes in the amount of snow in these catchments.

Our modelling shows the electricity system can adapt to those changing conditions. One good news story (unless you’re a skier) is that warmer temperatures will mean less snow storage at lower elevations, and therefore higher lake inflows in the big hydro catchments in winter, leading to a better match between times of high electricity demand and higher inflows.

The price is right
The modelling also shows the cost of generating electricity is not likely to increase, because the price of building new sources of renewable energy continues to fall globally.

Because the cost of building new renewables is now cheaper than non-renewables (such as coal-fired plants), investing in carbon-free electricity is increasingly compelling, and renewables are more likely to be built to meet new demand in the near term.

While New Zealand’s electricity system can enable the rapid decarbonisation of (at least) our transport and industrial heat sectors, international efforts like cleaning up Canada's electricity underline the need for certainty so the electricity industry can start building to meet demand everywhere.

Bipartisan cooperation at government level will be important to encourage significant investment in generation and transmission projects with long lead times and life expectancies, as analyses of climate policy and grid implications underscore in comparable markets.

Infrastructure and markets are needed to support demand response uptake, as well as certainty around the Tiwai exit in 2024 and whether pumped storage is likely to be built.

Our electricity system can support the rapid decarbonisation needed if New Zealand is to do its fair share globally to tackle climate change.

But sound planning, firm decisions and a supportive and relatively stable regulatory framework are all required before shovels can hit the ground.

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