Bus depot bid to be UK's largest electric vehicle charging hub


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First Glasgow Electric Buses will transform the Caledonia depot with 160 charging points, zero-emission operations, grid upgrades, and rapid charging, supported by Transport Scotland funding and Alexander Dennis manufacturing for cleaner urban routes by 2023.

 

Key Points

Electric single-deckers at Caledonia depot with 160 chargers and upgrades, delivering zero-emission service by 2023

✅ 160 charging points; 4-hour rapid recharge capability

✅ Grid upgrades to power a fleet equal to a 10,000-person town

✅ Supported by Transport Scotland; built by Alexander Dennis

 

First Bus will install 160 charging points and replace half its fleet with electric buses at its Caledonia depot in Glasgow.

The programme is expected to be completed in 2023, similar to Metro Vancouver's battery-electric rollout milestones, with the first 22 buses arriving by autumn.

Charging the full fleet will use the same electricity as it takes to power a town of 10,000 people.

The scale of the project means changes are needed to the power grid, a challenge highlighted in global e-bus adoption analysis, to accommodate the extra demand.

First Glasgow managing director Andrew Jarvis told BBC Scotland: "We've got to play our part in society in changing how we all live and work. A big part of that is emissions from vehicles.

"Transport is stubbornly high in terms of emissions and bus companies need to play their part, and are playing their part, in that zero emission journey."

First Bus currently operates 337 buses out of its largest depot with another four sites across Glasgow.

The new buses will be built by Alexander Dennis at its manufacturing sites in Falkirk and Scarborough.

The transition requires a £35.6m investment by First with electric buses costing almost double the £225,000 bill for a single decker running on diesel.

But the company says maintenance and running costs, as seen in St. Albert's electric fleet results, are then much lower.

The buses can run on urban routes for 16 hours, similar to Edmonton's first e-bus performance, and be rapidly recharged in just four hours.

This is a big investment which the company wouldn't be able to achieve on its own.

Government grants only cover 75% of the difference between the price of a diesel and an electric bus, similar to support for B.C. electric school buses programmes, so it's still a good bit more expensive for them.

But they know they have to do it as a social responsibility, and large-scale initiatives like US school bus conversions show the direction of travel, and because the requirements for using Low Emissions Zones are likely to become stricter.

The SNP manifesto committed to electrifying half of Scotland's 4,000 or so buses within two years.

Some are questioning whether that's even achievable in the timescale, though TTC's large e-bus fleet offers lessons, given the electricity grid changes that would be necessary for charging.

But it's a commitment that environmental groups will certainly hold them to.

Transport Scotland is providing £28.1m of funding to First Bus as part of the Scottish government's commitment to electrify half of Scotland's buses in the first two years of the parliamentary term.

Net Zero Secretary Michael Matheson said: "It's absolute critical that we decarbonise our transport system and what we have set out are very ambitious plans of how we go about doing that.

"We've set out a target to make sure that we decarbonise as many of the bus fleets across Scotland as possible, at least half of it over the course of the next couple of years, and we'll set out our plans later on this year of how we'll drive that forward."

Transport is the single biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland which are responsible for accelerating climate change.

In 2018 the sector was responsible for 31% of the country's net emissions.

Electric bus
First Glasgow has been trialling two electric buses since January 2020.

Driver Sally Smillie said they had gone down well with passengers because they were much quieter than diesel buses.

She added: "In the beginning it was strange for them not hearing them coming but they adapt very easily and they check now.

"It's a lot more comfortable. You're not feeling a gear change and the braking's smoother. I think they're great buses to drive."

 

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Centrica acquires battery storage project that could "unlock North Sea wind energy potential"

Centrica Dyce Battery Storage will deliver 30MW 2hr capacity in Aberdeenshire, capturing North Sea offshore wind to reduce curtailment, enhance grid flexibility, and strengthen UK energy independence with reliable renewable energy balancing.

 

Key Points

A 30MW 2hr battery in Dyce, Aberdeenshire, storing North Sea wind to cut curtailment and ease UK grid constraints.

✅ 30MW 2hr system near North Sea offshore wind connection

✅ Cuts curtailment and boosts grid flexibility and reliability

✅ Can power 70,000 homes for an hour with daily cycles

 

CENTRICA Business Solutions has secured the development rights for a fully consented 30MW 2hr battery storage plant in Aberdeenshire that will help maximise the use of renewable energy in the Scottish North Sea.

The site in Dyce, near Aberdeen is located near a connection for North Sea UK offshore wind farms and will contribute towards managing network constraints – by storing electricity when it is abundant for times when it is not, helping improve the energy independence of the UK and reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. 

Last year, the National Grid paid £244million to wind farm operators to shut down turbines, as they risked overloading the Scottish grid, a process known as curtailment. Battery storage is one method of helping to utilise that wasted energy resource, ensuring fewer green electrons are curtailed. 

Once built, the 30MW 2hr Dyce battery storage plant will store enough energy to power 70,000 homes for an hour. This discharge happens up to four hours per day, as seen in other large-scale deployments like France's largest battery platform that optimise grid balancing.

The project was developed by Cragside Energy Limited, backed by Omni Partners LLP, and obtained planning consent in November 2021. The go-live date for the project is mid-2024, construction should last eight months and will be aligned with the grid connection date.

“Battery storage can play a strategic role in helping to transition away from fossil fuels, by smoothing out the peak demand and troughs associated with renewable energy generation,” said Bill Rees, Director of Centrica Energy Assets. “We should treat renewable energy like a precious resource and projects like this can help to maximise its efficacy.” 

The project forms part of Centrica Energy Assets’ plan to deliver 900MW of solar and battery storage assets by 2026, increasingly paired with solar in global deployments. Centrica already owns and operates the 49MW fast response battery at Roosecote, Cumbria. 

Centrica Business Solutions Managing Director Greg McKenna, said: “Improving the energy independence of the UK is essential to help manage energy costs and move away from fossil fuels. The Government has set a target of a green electricity grid by 2035 – that’s only achievable if we build out the level of flexibility in the system, to help manage supply and demand.”

Centrica Energy Assets will work with Cragside Energy to identify new opportunities in the energy storage space. Cragside Energy’s growing pipeline exceeds 200MW, and focuses on low carbon and flexible assets, including energy storage, solar and peaking plant schemes, supported by falling battery costs across the sector.

Ben Coulston, Director of Cragside Energy, added: “Targeted investment into a complementary mix of diverse energy sources and infrastructure is crucial if the UK is to fully harness its renewable energy potential. Battery storage, such as the project in Dyce, will contribute to the upkeep of a stable and resilient network and we have enjoyed partnering with Centrica as the project transitions into the next phase”.

 

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Canada must commit to 100 per cent clean electricity

Canada Green Investment Gap highlights lagging EV and clean energy funding as peers surge. With a green recovery budget pending, sustainable finance, green bonds, EV charging, hydrogen, and carbon capture are pivotal to decarbonization.

 

Key Points

Canada lags peers in EV and clean energy investment, urging faster budget and policy action to cut emissions.

✅ Per capita climate spend trails US and EU benchmarks

✅ EVs, hydrogen, charging need scaled funding now

✅ Strengthen sustainable finance, green bonds, disclosure

 

Canada is being outpaced on the international stage when it comes to green investments in electric vehicles and green energy solutions, environmental groups say.

The federal government has an opportunity to change course in about three weeks, when the Liberals table their first budget in over two years, the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) argued in a new analysis endorsed by nine other climate action, ecology and conservation organizations.

“Canada’s international peers are ramping up commitments for green recovery, including significant investments from many European countries,” states the analysis, “Investing for Tomorrow, Today,” published March 29.

“To keep up with our global peers, sufficient investments and strengthened regulations, including EV sales regulations, must work in tandem to rapidly decarbonize all sectors of the Canadian economy.”

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland confirmed last week that the federal budget will be tabled April 19. The Liberals are expected to propose between $70 billion and $100 billion in fiscal stimulus to jolt the economy out of its pandemic doldrums.

The government teased a coming economic “green transformation” late last year when Freeland released the fall economic statement, promising to examine federal green bonds, border carbon adjustments and a sustainable finance market, with tweaks like tightening the climate-risk disclosure obligations of corporations.

The government has also proposed a wide range of green measures in its new climate plan released in December — which the think tank called the “most ambitious” in Canada’s history — including energy retrofit programs, boosting hydrogen and other alternative fuels, and rolling out carbon capture technology in a grid where 18% of electricity still came from fossil fuels in 2019.

But the possible “three-year stimulus package to jumpstart our recovery” mentioned in the fall economic statement came with the caveat that the COVID-19 virus would have to be “under control.” While vaccines are being administered, Canada is currently dealing with a rise of highly transmissible variants of the virus.

Freeland spoke with United States Vice-President Kamala Harris on March 25, highlighting potential Canada-U.S. collaboration on EVs alongside the “need to support entrepreneurs, small businesses, young people, low-wage and racialized workers, the care economy, and women” in the context of an economic recovery.

Biden is contemplating a climate recovery plan that could exceed US$2 trillion as Canada looks to capitalize on the U.S. auto pivot to EVs to spur domestic industry. Per capita, that is over 8 times what Canada has announced so far for climate-related spending in the wake of the pandemic, according to a new analysis from green groups.
U.S. President Joe Biden is contemplating a climate and clean energy recovery plan that could “exceed US$2 trillion,” White House officials told reporters this month. “Per capita, that is over eight times what Canada has announced so far for climate-related spending in the wake of the pandemic,” the IISD-led analysis stated.

Biden’s election platform commitment of $508 billion over 10 years in clean energy was also seen as “significantly higher per capita than Canada’s recent commitments.”

Since October 2020, Canada has announced $36 billion in new climate-focused funding, a 2035 EV mandate and other measures, the groups found. By comparison, they noted, a political agreement in Europe proposed that a minimum of 37 per cent of investments in each national recovery plan should support climate action. France and Germany have also committed tens of billions of dollars to support clean hydrogen.

As for electric vehicles (EVs), the United Kingdom has committed $4.9 billion, while Germany has put up $7.5 billion to expand EV adoption and charging infrastructure and sweeten incentive programs for prospective buyers, complementing Canada’s ambitious EV goals announced domestically. The U.K. has also committed $3.5 billion for bike lanes and other active transportation, the groups noted.

Canada announced $400 million over five years this month for a new network of bike lanes, paths, trails and bridges, the first federal fund dedicated to active transportation.

 

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B.C. Hydro predicts 'bottleneck' as electric-vehicle demand ramps-up

B.C. EV Bottleneck signals a post-pandemic demand surge for electric vehicles amid semiconductor and lithium-ion battery shortages, driving waitlists, record sales, rebates, charging infrastructure needs, and savings on fuel and maintenance across British Columbia.

 

Key Points

B.C. EV bottleneck is rising demand outpacing supply from chip and battery shortages, creating waitlists.

✅ 85% delayed EV purchase; demand rebounds with reopening.

✅ Supply chain limits: chips and lithium-ion batteries.

✅ Plan ahead: join waitlists, consider used EVs, claim rebates.

 

B.C. Hydro is warning of a post-pandemic “EV bottleneck” as it predicts pent-up demand and EV shortages will lead to record-breaking sales for electric vehicles in 2021.

A new survey by B.C. Hydro found 85 per cent of British Columbians put off buying an electric vehicle during the pandemic, but as the province reopens, the number of people on the road commuting to-and-from work and school is expected to rise 15 per cent compared with before the pandemic.

It found about two-thirds of British Columbians are considering buying an EV over the next five years, with 60 per cent saying they would go with an EV if they can get one sooner.

“The EV market is at a potential tipping point, as demand is on the rise and will likely continue to grow long-term, with one study projecting doubling power output to meet full road electrification,” said a report about the findings released Wednesday.

The demand for EVs is prompted by rising gas prices, environmental concerns and to save money on maintenance costs like oil changes and engine repairs, said the report. At the same time, a shortage of semiconductor chips and lithium ion batteries needed for auto production is squeezing supply.

For people wanting to make the switch to electric, B.C. Hydro recommended they plan ahead and get on several waiting lists and explore networks offering faster charging options. Used EVs are also a cheaper option.

B.C. Hydro said an electric vehicle can save 80 per cent in gas expenses over a year and about $100 a month in maintenance costs compared with a gas-powered vehicle. There are also provincial and federal rebates of up to $8,000 for EV purchases in B.C., and additional charger rebates can help with installation costs.

B.C. has the highest electric vehicle uptake in North America, with zero-emission vehicles making up almost 10 per cent of all car sales in the province in 2020 as the province expands EV charging to support growth — more than double the four per cent in 2018.

According to a report by University of B.C. business Prof. Werner Antweiler on the state of EV adoption in B.C., electric vehicles are still concentrated in urban areas like Metro Vancouver and the Capital Regional District on Vancouver Island where public charging stations are more readily available.

He said electric vehicle purchases are still hampered by limited choice and a lack of charging stations, especially for people who park on the street or in condo parkades, which would require permission from strata councils to install a charging station, though rebates for home and workplace charging can ease installation.

The online survey was conducted by market researcher Majid Khoury of 800 British Columbians from May 17-19. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

 

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EV shortages, wait times amid high gasoline prices

Canada EV demand surge is driven by record gas prices, zero-emission policies, and tight dealer inventory, while microchip shortages, ZEV mandates abroad, and lithium supply concerns extend wait times for new and used models.

 

Key Points

Canada EV demand surge is rising interest in zero-emission cars due to high gas prices and limited EV supply.

✅ Gas at $2/litre spurs zero-emission interest

✅ Dealer inventory scarce; waits up to 3 years

✅ Microchip and lithium constraints limit output

 

Price shock at the pump is driving  Canadians toward buying an ev. But manufacturers are having trouble keeping up with consumer demand, even as the U.S. auto sector pivots to EVs across North America.

In parts of the country, gas prices exceeded $2 per litre last month amid strong global demand for oil combined with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Halifax-based electric vehicle salesperson Jeremie Bernardin said he's noticed an explosion of interest in zero-emission vehicles since the price of fuel started to take off.

"I think there's a lot of people that were considering electric vehicles for a very long time, and they needed that extra little push," Bernardin, who is also the president of the Electric Vehicle Association of Atlantic Canada, where Atlantic EV demand has lagged the national average, told CTVNews.ca over the phone on Wednesday.

With so few electric vehicles on dealership lots, Canadians looking to buy a brand-new zero-emission car will have to put down a deposit and get onto a waiting list. Bernardin said the wait times can be as long as three years, depending on the manufacturer and the dealership.

Tesla, which makes Canada's best-selling electric car according to the automotive publication Motor Illustrated, says delivery times for its vehicles range between three months to one year, depending on the model. But some manufacturers like Nissan have already completely sold out of their electric vehicle inventory for the 2022 model year, though recent EV assembly deals in Canada aim to expand capacity over time.

Shortages of electric vehicles have been around long before the recent spike in gas prices. In March 2021, a report commissioned by Transport Canada found that more than half of Canadian dealerships had no electric vehicles in stock. The report also found that wait times exceeded six months at 31 per cent of dealerships that had no zero-emission cars in their inventory.

Interest in used electric vehicles has also surged amid the high gas prices. Used car marketplace AutoTrader.ca says searches for electric cars in March 2022 increased 89 per cent compared to the previous year, while the number of inquiries sent to electric vehicle sellers through its platform jumped 567 per cent.

"It's understandable that when the gas prices are expensive, consumers are looking to buy and get into electric vehicles, though upfront cost remains a major barrier for many buyers today," Baris Akyurek, AutoTrader.ca's director of marketing intelligence, told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on Wednesday.

SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES PERSIST
The surging interest in electric vehicles also comes at a time when pandemic-induced shortages of microchips have been affecting the automotive industry at large since late 2020. Modern automobiles can have hundreds of microchips that control everything from the air conditioning to the power steering system, and a shortage of these crucial components have resulted in fewer vehicles being manufactured.

"Electric vehicles are subject to supply chain issues, just like anything else. Right now, the COVID pandemic has disrupted global supply chains. The auto industry specifically is seeing a microchip shortage that it's been struggling with for the past year or two. So those things are at play," said Joanna Kyriazis, senior policy advisor with Simon Fraser University’s Clean Energy Canada, in a phone interview with CTVNews.ca on Tuesday.

On top of that, Kyriazis says more than 80 per cent of the world's supply of electric vehicles are shipped to consumers in China and the European Union.

China has a strict zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate that requires automakers to ensure that a certain minimum percentage of their vehicles are electric or hydrogen-powered. In Europe, automakers are also forced to sell more electric vehicles there in order to meet the EU's stringent fleetwide emissions standards, and in Canada, Ottawa is preparing EV sales regulations to guide adoption in the coming years.

"We don't have the same aggressive regulations in place yet to really force automakers to prioritize the Canadian market when they're deciding where to allocate their EV inventory and where to sell EVs," said Kyriazis, though Ottawa's 2035 EV mandate remains debated by some industry observers today.

Kyriazis also said she believes it's possible that a shortage of lithium and other minerals required for battery production could be a potential issue within the next five years.

"But my understanding is that the global market is not hitting a supply crunch just yet," she said. "There could be a near-term supply issue. But we're not there yet."

In order to ensure adequate supply of minerals for battery production, the federal government in its most recent budget committed to providing up to $3.8 billion over eight years to create "Canada's first critical minerals strategy." The strategy is aimed at boosting extraction and production of Canadian nickel, lithium and other minerals used as components in electric vehicles and their batteries, and it aligns with opportunities for Canada-U.S. collaboration as companies electrify.

"Canada has a lot of natural resources and a lot of experience with natural resource extraction. We really can stand to be a leader in battery production," said Harry Constatine, president of the Vancouver Electric Vehicles Association, in an interview with CTVNews.ca over the phone on Monday.

 

 

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EV owners can access more rebates for home, workplace charging

CleanBC Go Electric EV Charger Rebate empowers British Columbia condos, apartments, and workplaces with Level 2 charging infrastructure, ZEV adoption support, and stackable rebates aligned with the CleanBC Roadmap 2030 and municipal top-up incentives.

 

Key Points

A provincial program funding up to 50% of EV charger costs for condos, apartments, and workplaces across B.C.

✅ Up to 50% back, max $2,000 per eligible Level 2 charger

✅ EV Ready plans fund building upgrades for future charging

✅ Free advisor support: up to 5 hours for condos and workplaces

 

British Columbians wanting to charge their electric vehicles (EVs) at their condominium building or their place of work can access further funding through EV charger rebates to help buy and install EV chargers through CleanBC’s Go Electric EV Charger Rebate program.

“To better support British Columbians living in condominiums and apartments, we’re offering rebates to make more buildings EV ready,” said Bruce Ralston, Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation. “With the highest uptake rates of EV adoption in North America, we want to make sure that more people supporting our transition to a low-carbon economy have easy access to charging infrastructure.”

The Province’s CleanBC Go Electric EV Charger Rebate program is receiving $10 million as part of Budget 2021 to help with the upfront costs that come with EVs. Condominiums, apartments and workplaces that purchase and install eligible EV chargers can receive a rebate up to 50% of costs to a maximum of $2,000 per charger. Customers who take advantage of the EV Charger Rebate may have access to top up rebates through participating municipalities and local governments.

“People in British Columbia are switching to electric vehicles in record numbers as part of the transition to a cleaner, better transportation system,” said George Heyman, Minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy. “We are building on that progress and accelerating positive change through the CleanBC Roadmap. We’re making it more affordable to own an electric vehicle and charging station, with incentives for zero-emission vehicles, so people can improve their driving experience with no air and climate pollution, and lower fuel and maintenance costs overall.”

The strata council for a condo building in Vancouver’s Olympic Village neighbourhood made use of the EV Ready program, as well as new legislation easing strata EV installs and federal support to upgrade their building’s electrical infrastructure. The strata council worked together to first determine, through a load review, if there was enough incoming power to support a level 2 charger for every owner. Once this was determined, the strata’s chosen electrical contractor went to work with the base installation, as well as individual chargers for owners who ordered them. The strata council also ensured a charger was installed in the guest parking.

“The majority of owners in our building came together and gave our strata council approval to make the necessary updates to the building’s infrastructure to support electric vehicle charging where we live,” said Jim Bayles, vice-president of strata council. “While upgrading the electrical and installing the EV chargers was something we were going ahead with anyway, we were pleased to receive quick support from the Province through their CleanBC program as well as from the federal government.”

CleanBC’s EV Ready option supports the adoption of EV infrastructure at apartment and condominium buildings. EV Ready provides rebates for the development of EV Ready plans, a strategy for buildings supported by professionals to retrofit a condo with chargers and make at least one parking space per unit EV ready, and the installation of electrical modifications and upgrades needed to support widespread future access to EV charging for residents.

Up to five hours of free support services from an EV charging station adviser are available through the EV Charger Rebate program for condominiums, apartments and workplaces that need help moving from idea to installation.

Single-family homes, including duplexes and townhouses, can get a rebate of up to 50% of purchase and installation costs of an eligible EV charger to a maximum of $350 through the EV Charger Rebate program.

The Province is providing a range of rebates through its CleanBC Go Electric programs and building out the fast-charging network to ensure the increasing demand for EVs is supported. B.C. has one of the largest public-charging networks in Canada, including the BC's Electric Highway initiative, with more than 2,500 public charging stations throughout the province.

The CleanBC Go Electric EV Charger Rebate program aligns with the recently released CleanBC Roadmap to 2030. Announced on Oct. 25, 2021, the CleanBC Roadmap to 2030 details a range of expanded actions to expand EV charging and accelerate the transition to a net-zero future and achieve B.C.’s legislated greenhouse gas emissions targets.

CleanBC is a pathway to a more prosperous, balanced and sustainable future. It supports government’s commitment to climate action to meet B.C.’s emission targets and build a cleaner, stronger economy for everyone.

Quick Facts:

  • The CleanBC Go Electric EV Charger Rebate program provides a convenient single point of service for provincial and any local government rebates.
  • EV adviser services for multi-unit residential buildings and workplaces are available through Plug In BC.
  • British Columbia is leading the country in transitioning to EVs, even as a B.C. Hydro 'bottleneck' forecast highlights infrastructure needs, with more than 60,000 light-duty EVs on the road.
  • British Columbia was the first place in the world to have a 100% ZEV law and is leading North America in uptake rates of EVs at nearly 10% of new sales in 2020 – five years ahead of the original target.
  • The CleanBC Roadmap to 2030 commits B.C. to adjusting its ZEV Act to require automakers to meet an escalating annual percentage of new light-duty ZEV sales and leases, reaching 26% of light-duty vehicle sales by 2026, 90% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

 

Learn More:

To learn more about home and workplace EV charging station rebates, eligibility and application processes, including the EV Ready program, visit: https://goelectricbc.gov.bc.ca/

To learn more about EV advisor services, visit: https://pluginbc.ca/ev-advisor-service/

To learn more about the suite of CleanBC Go Electric programming, visit: www.gov.bc.ca/zeroemissionvehicles

To learn more about the CleanBC Roadmap to 2030, visit: https://cleanbc.gov.bc.ca/

 

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US Moving Towards 30% Electricity From Wind & Solar

US Wind and Solar Outlook 2026 projects cheap renewables displacing coal and gas, with utility-scale additions, rooftop solar growth, improved grid reliability, and EV V2G integration accelerating decarbonization across the electricity market.

 

Key Points

An analysis forecasting wind and solar growth, displacing coal and gas as utility-scale and rooftop solar expand.

✅ Utility-scale solar installs avg 21 GW/yr through 2026.

✅ 37.7 GW wind in pipeline; 127.8 GW already online.

✅ Small-scale solar could near 100 TWh in 2026.

 

A recent report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) predicts that cheap renewables in the form of wind and solar will push coal and gas out of the energy market space. Already at 9% of US generation, the report predicts that wind and solar will supply almost 30% of US electricity demand by 2026, consistent with renewables nearing one-fourth of U.S. generation projections for the near term.

“The Solar Energy Industries Association now expects utility-scale installations to average more than 21,000MW a year through 2026, following a year when U.S. solar generation rose 25% and with a peak of 25,000MW in 2023,” IEEFA writes. “Continued growth is also expected in U.S. wind generation, mirroring global trends where China's solar PV expansion outpaced all other fuels in 2016, with 37.7GW of new capacity already under construction or in advanced development, which would be added to 127.8GW in existing installed capacity.”

Meanwhile, with wind and solar growth booming, fossil fuels are declining, as renewables surpassed coal in 2022 nationwide. “Coal and natural gas are now locked into an essentially zero-sum game where increases in one fuel’s generation comes at the expense of the other. Together, they are not gaining market share, rather they are trading it back and forth, and the rapid growth in renewable generation will cut even deeper into the market share of both.”

And what of rooftop solar? Some states in Australia now have periods where the entire state grid is powered just by solar on the roofs of private citizens. As this revolution progresses in the USA, especially if a tenfold national solar push moves forward, what impact will it make on fossil fuel generators — which are expensive to build, expensive to maintain, expensive to fuel, and rely on an expensive distribution network.

“EIA estimates that this ‘small-scale solar’ produced 41.7 million MWh of power in 2020, when solar accounted for about 3% of U.S. electricity, a 19 percent increase from 2019. This growth will likely continue in the years ahead as costs continue to fall and concerns about grid reliability rise. Assuming a conservative 15 percent annual increase in small-scale solar going forward would push the sector’s generation to almost 100 million MWh in 2026.”

The Joker in the story might be the impact from electric vehicle adoption. Sales are set to surge and there’s more and more interest in V2G technology, even as wind and solar could provide 50% by 2050 in broader forecasts.

 

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