Wind plans generate disagreement

By Rochester Business Journal


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As the New York Power Authority prepares to announce a developer for its proposed offshore wind project somewhere in Lake Ontario or Lake Erie, the debate continues over the viability and visibility of wind turbines on land and water.

NYPA representatives have been reviewing five proposals over the last 10 months, and are tight-lipped about the process. President and CEO Richard Kessel has declined to comment on the status of the project, which has been condemned by governments in Monroe and most New York counties along the shores of the two lakes.

"It's really sad that the lake counties in New York have said no to NYPA for the exploration," says Kevin Schulte, co-founder and CEO of Sustainable Energy Developments Inc. in Ontario, Wayne County.

"What it says to me is they don't even want to understand what that opportunity could be. NYPA doesn't understand what the economics will be, or what those projects are even going to look like."

Monroe and Wayne counties in the Rochester area have passed resolutions against the placement of wind turbines off their shores. Niagara, Erie and Chautauqua counties in Western New York have done the same, as have Oswego and Jefferson counties on the east end of Lake Ontario.

Orleans and Cayuga counties have yet to publicly state their position.

In a statement, NYPA said it respects legislators' views but is keeping options open as it decides where to locate the turbines.

Schulte's company has developed 30 residential wind turbines in New York that generate at least 10 kilowatts of electricity. It has projects — ranging from 50 kilowatts to 2 megawatts — from Delaware to New Hampshire, all of which directly power facilities, he says.

Sustainable Energy Developments will not be involved in the NYPA project, whose scale will be 120 to 500 megawatts, NYPA officials say.

"Some are five or 10 years away from ever being built," Schulte says. "I just think it's sad that we're not even willing to explore that opportunity to make sure we understand whether or not there's an economic opportunity for the communities along the lake shore.

"I would've thought the communities on the lake shores would be more progressive. It's not as though our economy in these parts is growing at an all-time rate or anything."

Some 48 businesses from the Rochester area are among 368 registered on the power authority website to be part of the project. O'Connell Electric Co. Inc. in Victor is one of them.

"When that thing came out, we did discuss it with some of these developers," O'Connell CEO Victor Salerno says.

"Everybody was all upset about putting them up off of Monroe County. I mean, they're not going to go there. There's supposedly a site on Lake Erie that they may pursue. There again, these are all rumors. You can't get anything straight out of them."

Salerno thinks the turbine project is likely to wind up on Galloo Island, on the eastern end of Lake Ontario near Sackets Harbor, rather than in the water.

"There is a site that makes all the sense in the world," he says. "It's an uninhabited island. But it's an island. Turbine placement is not in the water, but you can probably build it for 50 percent less. It makes too much sense, so I still imagine that will happen."

Galloo Island already is of interest to Upstate New York Power Corp. in suburban Buffalo, which is seeking governmental and regulatory approvals for up to 90 turbines generating 269 megawatts of power, documents filed with the state Department of Environmental Conservation state.

"It's like nine miles into the lake," Salerno says. "It is a perfect spot. The wind screams down the lake with nothing in the way. It's probably one of the best wind usages in the country.

"The jobs are desperately needed there," he adds. "I'm guessing there would be $500 million or $600 million private contracts. You'd think they'd be all over it. This power authority has been a big mystery all along. Everything's been done in secret with them. I think it will happen, but it should've happened already. It's too logical."

The task of siting wind energy projects has become a science, Salerno says.

"They know exactly what to expect, based on historical data," he says. "They don't just plop it anywhere. You're not going to put them in residential areas. They have to be within certain distances and all that stuff.

"Then you have the aesthetics. I mean, they are huge. They're 40-story buildings."

O'Connell has been part of 12 large-scale wind energy projects, Salerno says, developing substations, transmission lines and tower wiring.

Among them are the $40 million conversion of an abandoned Bethlehem Steel Corp. plant in Lackawanna to the Steel Winds Urban Wind Farm and the $200 million Bliss Wind Farm in Wyoming County.

"We're bidding on one right now that I think we're going to get," Salerno says. "It's south of Rochester, not in Monroe County. And I think we're going to put an addition on the one we built at Steel Winds. They're going to put maybe a half dozen more towers there. But there are a lot of them pending in the area. They will happen."

Wind power projects provide a boost to the local economy, Salerno says.

"There's the cost to build them, and there's all kinds of labor that goes into it," he says. "O'Connell's is uniquely positioned because we have a power group. We do the line work, and no one locally does that other than ourselves. We have competition, but it's out of the area.

"We've done over a dozen of the big ones, and we're trying to help some of these smaller companies with the small wind. That'll come. It's happening. As oil keeps going up, that makes the payback quicker."

O'Connell did the electrical work for the 125-megawatt Cohocton Wind farm south of Naples in Steuben County. The 2008 project developed by First Wind, an independent wind energy company based in Boston, included 50 turbines generating 2.5 megawatts each.

"You can actually see it from Canandaigua Lake," Salerno says. "We have a place on the lake and, when it's a clear day, we can see about nine of the towers. They're kind of intriguing, but they're big."

The town of Cohocton receives annual payments of some $750,000 as part of its 20-year host agreement with First Wind and from a payment-in-lieu-of-taxes agreement through the Steuben County Industrial Development Agency, Supervisor Jack Zigenfus says.

Cohocton decided to take larger annual payments early to pay off substantial debt, rather than equal payments over 20 years, the 10-year supervisor says.

"The town had a lot of debt," Zigenfus says. "It was not in good financial shape at all. By taking the larger amount of money up front, we were able to pay off all the town's debt.

"It also allowed us to purchase some very expensive highway equipment. And we have some healthy reserves."

The town tax rate was reduced by 60 percent over two years and is now in the range of $2.85 per thousand, he says.

There have been virtually no complaints about the visual impact or noise coming from the turbines, Zigenfus says.

"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder," he says. "Some people don't like the view. Some people don't like the inconveniences of the noise. There are some issues with noise, but these are few and far between. We receive almost no complaints anymore."

A 16-turbine wind farm is proposed for neighboring Prattsburgh, but town officials are waging a legal battle against the developer, Ecogen LLC, over regulatory issues. A ruling last month by state Supreme Court judge John Ark gives Ecogen and the town five months to reach agreement on plans for road use.

"It's not really a case of being for or against," Prattsburgh supervisor Albert Wordingham says. "Regardless of what industry it is-whether it's wind towers or a dump or tire-shredding-they have to be sited properly.

"That's one of the major problems here: the proximity to people's homes. It's inadequate. It's not how I feel about it, but what the world-Europe, in particular-has learned over the years about setbacks and safety issues and shadow flicker."

Shadow flicker occurs when certain conditions cause rotating turbine blades to cast lengthy shadows.

Wordingham has no issues with wind farms, he says, as long as the setbacks adequately ensure the health and safety of residents.

"There are basically no rules," he says. "It's a free-for-all. The rules are woefully inadequate. For whatever reason, most of the lead agents that do the state environmental quality review process and the findings statements are not paying attention to problems and issues in the world.

"Our basic issue here is the setbacks. You can't displace the people that live here to do a project just because it's convenient. It has to be done properly."

Schulte of Sustainable Energy Development thinks wind energy opponents overshadow those in favor of the alternative resource.

"I don't think New York is unique," he says. "We work all across the Northeast. You have a rather vocal minority that opposes a project and, unfortunately, a quiet majority that's very supportive of wind power."

New York's regulatory environment does make it difficult for large wind projects, Schulte adds.

"That probably has slowed projects down more than the un-silent minority," he says.

SED doubled its business in 2010, Schulte says, and sales for 2011 are at an all-time high.

"We're certainly seeing a pretty steep growth curve at this point," he says.

"For the first time in the nine years that SED has been doing business here, I can look at these types of projects in New York state and see real positive economic benefit for people that own a windy property and want to take advantage of wind power."

Salerno says wind power is part of the long-term solution to the spiraling cost of oil.

"If I owned a nice home on Lake Ontario, in Webster or Charlotte, I wouldn't worry about wind towers going there," he says. "I don't think it's going to happen. But if you site them in the right spots, it is part of the solution."

Adds Salerno: "If you want your lights on, if you want to run your computers, if you want to run your air conditioning, guess what? You need to generate electricity some way. I don't think we want to go back into the dark ages."

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Electricity is civilization": Winter looms over Ukraine battlefront

Ukraine Power Grid Restoration accelerates across liberated Kharkiv, restoring electricity, heat, and water amid missile and drone strikes, demining operations, blackouts, and winterization efforts, showcasing resilience, emergency repairs, and critical infrastructure recovery.

 

Key Points

Ukraine's rapid push to repair war-damaged grids, restore heat and water, and stabilize key services before winter.

✅ Priority repairs restore electricity and water in liberated Kharkiv.

✅ Crews de-mine lines and work under shelling, drones, and missiles.

✅ Winterization adds generators, mobile stoves, and large firewood supplies.

 

On the freshly liberated battlefields of northeast Ukraine, a pile of smashed glass windows outside one Soviet-era block of apartments attests to the violence of six months of Russian occupation, and of Ukraine’s sweeping recent military advances.

Indoors, in cramped apartments, residents lived in the dark for weeks on end.

Now, with a hard winter looming, they marvel at the speed and urgency with which Ukrainian officials have restored another key ingredient to their survival: electric power, a critical effort to keep the lights on this winter across communities.

Among those things governments strive to provide are security, opportunity, and minimal comfort. With winter approaching, and Russia targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure, add to that list heat and light, even as Russia hammers power plants nationwide. It’s requiring a concerted effort.

“Thank God it works! Electricity is civilization – it is everything,” says Antonina Krasnokutska, a retired medical worker, looking affectionately at the lightbulb that came on the day before, and now burns again in her tiny spotless kitchen.

“Without electricity there is no TV, no news, no clothes washing, no charging the phone,” says Ms. Krasnokutska, her gray hair pulled back and a small crucifix around her neck.

“Before, it was like living in the Stone Age,” says her grown son, Serhii Krasnokutskyi, who is more than a head taller. “As soon as it got dark, everyone would go to sleep.”

He shows a picture on his phone from a few days earlier, of a tangle of phone and computer charging cables – including his – plugged in at a local shop with a generator.

“We are very grateful for the people who repaired this electricity, even with shelling continuing,” he says. “They have a very complicated job.”

Indeed, although a lack of power might have been a novel inconvenience during the warm summer season, it increasingly has become a matter of great urgency for Ukrainian citizens and officials.

Coping through Ukraine’s winter with dignity and any degree of security will require courage and perseverance, as the severity and suffering that the season can bring here are being weaponized by Russia, as it seeks to compensate for a string of battlefield losses.

In recent days, Russian attacks have specifically targeted Ukraine’s electrical and other civilian infrastructure – all with the apparent aim of making this winter as hard as possible for Ukrainians, even as Moscow employs other measures to spread the hardship across Europe, while Ukraine helps Spain amid blackouts through grid support.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that Russian barrages across the country with missiles and Iran-supplied kamikaze drones had destroyed 30% of Ukraine’s power stations in the previous eight days, including strikes on western Ukraine that caused outages. Thousands of towns have been left without electricity.

Kharkiv’s challenges
Emblematic of the national challenge is the one facing officials in the northeast Kharkiv region, where Ukraine recaptured more than 3,000 square miles in a September counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces are still making gains on that front, as well as in the south toward Kherson, where Wednesday Russia started evacuating civilians from the first major city it occupied, after launching its three-pronged invasion last February.

Across the Kharkiv region, Ukrainians are stockpiling as much wood, fuel, and food as possible while they still can, and adopting new energy solutions as they prepare, from sources as diverse as the floorboards of destroyed schools and the pine forests in Izium, which are pockmarked with abandoned Russian trenches adjacent to a mass burial site.

“Of course, we have this race against time,” says Serhii Mahdysyuk, the Kharkiv regional director in charge of housing, services, fuel, and energy. “Unfortunately, we probably stand in front of the biggest challenge in Ukraine.”

That is not only because of the scale of liberated territory, he says, but also because the Kharkiv region shares a long border with Russia, as well as with the Russian-controlled areas of the eastern Donbas.

“It’s a great mixture of all threats, and we are sure that shelling and bombings will continue, but we are ready for this,” says Mr. Mahdysyuk. “We know our weak spots that Russia can destroy, but we are prepared for what to do in these situations.”

Ukraine’s battlefield gains have meant a surging need to pick up the pieces after Russian occupation, even as electricity reserves are holding if no new strikes occur, to ensure habitable conditions as more and more surviving residents require services, and as others return to scenes of devastation.

Restoring electricity is the top priority, amid shifting international assistance such as the end of U.S. grid support, because that often restarts running water, too, says Mr. Mahdysyuk. But before that, the area beneath broken power lines must be de-mined.

Indeed, members of an electricity team reconnecting cables on the outskirts of Balakliia – one of the first towns to see power restored, at the end of September – say they lost two fellow workers in the previous two weeks. One died after stepping on an anti-personnel mine, another when his vehicle hit an anti-tank device.

Ukrainian electricity workers restore power lines damaged during six months of Russian military occupation in Balakliia, Ukraine, Sept. 29, 2022. Ukrainians in liberated territory say the restoration of the electrical grid, and with it often the water supply, is a return to civilization.
“For now, our biggest problem is mines,” says the team leader, who gave the name Andrii. “It’s fine within the cities, but in the fields it’s a disaster because it’s very difficult to see them. There is a lot of [them] around here – it will take years and years to get rid of.”

Yet officials only have a few weeks to execute plans to provide for hundreds of thousands of residents in this region, in their various states of need and distress. Some 50 field kitchens capable of feeding 200 to 300 people each have been ordered. Another 1,000 mobile stoves are on their way.

And authorities will provide nearly 200,000 cubic yards of firewood for those who have no access to it, and may have no other means of keeping warm – or where shelling continues to disrupt repairs, says Mr. Mahdysyuk.

“The level of opportunity and resources we have is not the same as the level of destruction,” he says. People in districts and buildings too destroyed to have services restored soon, such as in Saltivka in Kharkiv city, may be moved.

 

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Washington Australia announces $600 electricity bill bonus for every household

WA $600 Electricity Credit supports households with power bills as a budget stimulus, delivering an automatic rebate via Synergy and Horizon, funded by the Bell Group settlement to aid COVID-19 recovery and local spending.

 

Key Points

A one-off $600 power bill credit for all Synergy and Horizon residential accounts, funded by the Bell Group settlement.

✅ Automatic, not means-tested; applied to Synergy and Horizon accounts.

✅ Can offset upcoming bills or carry forward to future statements.

✅ Funded by Bell Group payout; aims to ease cost-of-living pressures.

 

Washington Premier Mark McGowan has announced more than a million households will receive a $600 electricity credit on their electricity account before their next bill.

The $650 million measure will form part of Thursday's pre-election state budget, similar to legislation to lower electricity rates in other jurisdictions, which has been delayed since May because of the pandemic and will help deflect criticism by the opposition that Labor hasn't done enough to stimulate WA's economy.

Mr McGowan made the announcement on Sunday while visiting a family in the electorate of Bicton.

"Here in WA, our state is in the best possible position as we continue our strong recovery from COVID-19, but times are still tough for many West Australians, and there is always more work to do," he said.

"[The credit] will mean WA families have a bit of extra money available in the lead up to Christmas.

"But I have a request, if this credit means you can spend some extra money, use it to support our local WA businesses."

The electricity bill credit will be automatically applied to every Synergy or Horizon residential account from Sunday, echoing moves such as reconnections for nonpayment by Hydro One in Canada.

It can be applied to future bills and will not be means tested.

"The $600 credit is fully funded through the recent Bell Group settlement, for the losses incurred in the Bell Group collapse in the early 1990s," Mr McGowan said.

"It made sense that these funds go straight back to Western Australians."

In September, the liquidator for the Bell Group and its finance arm distributed funds to its five major creditors, including $670 million to the WA government. The payment marked the close of the 30-year battle to recover taxpayer funds squandered during the WA Inc era of state politics.

The payout is the result of litigation stemming from the 1988 partnership between then Labor government and entrepreneur Alan Bond in acquiring major interests in Robert Holmes à Court’s failing Bell Group, following the 1987 stock market crash.

WA shadow minister for cost of living, Tony Krsticevic, said the $600 credit was returning money back into West Australian's pockets from "WA Labor's darkest days".

“This is taxpayers’ money out of a levy which was brought in to pay for Labor’s scandalous WA Inc losses of $450 million in the 1980s,” he said.

“This money should be returned to West Australians.

“WA families are in desperate need of it because they are struggling under cost of living increases of $850 every year since 2017 under WA Labor, amid concerns elsewhere that an electricity recovery rate could lead to higher hydro bills.

“But they need more than just a one-off payment. These $850 cost of living increases are an on-going burden.”

Prior to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, the opposition believed it was gaining traction by attacking the government's increases to fees and charges in its first three budgets, and by urging an electricity market overhaul to favor consumers.

Last year, Labor increased household fees and charges by $127.77, which came on top of increases over the prior two budgets, as other jurisdictions faced hydro rate increases of around 3 per cent.

According the state's annual report on its finances released in September, the $2.6 billion budget surplus forecast in the at the end of 2019 had been reduced by $920 million to $1.7 billion despite the impact of the coronavirus.

But total public sector net debt was at $35.4 billion, down from the $36.1 billion revision at the end of 2019 in the mid-year review.

 

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B.C. Hydro doing good job managing billions in capital assets, says auditor

BC Hydro Asset Management Audit confirms disciplined oversight of dams, generators, power lines, substations, and transformers, with robust lifecycle planning, reliability metrics, and capital investment sustaining aging infrastructure and near full-capacity performance.

 

Key Points

Audit confirming BC Hydro's asset governance and lifecycle planning, ensuring safe, reliable grid infrastructure.

✅ $25B in assets; many facilities operating near full capacity.

✅ 80% of assets are dams, generators, lines, poles, substations, transformers.

✅ $2.5B invested in renewal, repair, and replacement in fiscal 2018.

 

A report by B.C.’s auditor-general says B.C. Hydro is doing a good job managing the province’s dams, generating stations and power lines, including storm response during severe weather events.

Carol Bellringer says in the audit that B.C. Hydro’s assets are valued at more than $25 billion and even though some generating facilities are more than 85 years old they continue to operate near full-capacity and can accommodate holiday demand peaks when needed.

The report says about 80 per cent of Hydro’s assets are dams, generators, power lines, poles, substations and transformers that are used to provide electrical service to B.C., where residential electricity use shifted during the pandemic.

The audit says Hydro invested almost $2.5 billion to renew, repair or replace the assets it manages during the last fiscal year, ending March 31, 2018, and, in a broader context, bill relief has been offered to only part of the province.

Bellringer’s audit doesn’t examine the $10.7 billion Site C dam project, which is currently under construction in northeast B.C. and not slated for completion until 2024.

She says the audit examined whether B.C. Hydro has the information, practices, processes and systems needed to support good asset management, at a time when other utilities are dealing with pandemic impacts on operations.

 

 

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Clean energy jobs energize Pennsylvania: Clean Energy Employment Report

Pennsylvania Clean Energy Employment surges, highlighting workforce growth in energy efficiency, solar, wind, grid and storage, and alternative transportation, supporting COVID-19 recovery, high-wage jobs, manufacturing, construction, and statewide economic resilience.

 

Key Points

Jobs across clean power, efficiency, grid, storage, and advanced transport fueling Pennsylvania's workforce growth.

✅ 8.7% job growth from 2017-2019, outpacing statewide average

✅ 97,000+ employed across efficiency, solar, wind, grid, and fuels

✅ 75% earn above median; strong full-time opportunities

 

The 2020 Pennsylvania Clean Energy Employment Report has been released, and Gov. Tom Wolf is energized by it.

This "comes at an opportune time, as government and industry leaders look to strengthen Pennsylvania's workforce and economy in response to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic," Wolf said Monday in a prepared statement. "This detailed analysis of data and trends in clean energy employment ... demonstrates the sector was a top job generator statewide, and shows which industries were hiring and looking for trained workers."

Foremost among the findings, released Monday, is that the clean energy sector was responsible for adding 7,794 jobs from 2017 through 2019. That is an 8.7% average job growth rate, well above the 1.9% overall average in the state, according to a news release from Wolf's office.

This report lists employment data in five industries: energy efficiency; clean energy generation; alternative transportation; clean grid and storage; and clean fuels, while some cleaner states still import dirty electricity in regional markets.

The energy efficiency industry was the biggest clean energy employer in the state last year, with more than 71,400 state residents working in construction, technology and manufacturing jobs related to energy-efficient systems.

Solar energy workers comprised the largest share of the clean energy generation workforce – 35.4%, or 5,173 individuals. Solar employment increased 8.3% from 2017 to 2019, while there was a slight decline nationwide amid clean energy job losses reported in May.

Wind energy firms employed 2,937, and policy moves such as Ontario's clean electricity regulations signal broader market shifts, with more than 21% of those roles in manufacturing.

Job losses, though, were recorded in nuclear generation (minus 4.5%) and coal generation (minus 8.6%) over the two-year period, as electricity deregulation remains a point of debate in the sector. This mirrors national declines in both categories.

Federal efforts to support coal community revitalization are channeling clean energy projects to hard-hit regions.

Natural gas electric generation capacity doubled across Pennsylvania over the past decade; even as residents could face winter electricity price increases according to recent reports, employment still grew 13.4% from 2017 through 2019. But increasing output from unconventional wells has outpaced demand, sparking reductions in siting and drilling for new wells.

The Clean Energy Employment Report was released along with – and as part of – the 2020 Pennsylvania Energy Employment Report, which asserts that energy remains a large employer in the state, and new clean energy funding announcements underscore the sector's momentum. As of the last quarter of 2019, according to the larger report, energy accounted for 269,031 jobs, or 4.5% of the overall statewide workforce.

Wolf, in summary, said: "This report shows that workforce training investment decisions can benefit Pennsylvanians right now and position the state going forward to grow and improve livelihoods, the economy and our environment."

 

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Brazil tax strategy to bring down fuel, electricity prices seen having limited effects

Brazil ICMS Tax Cap limits state VAT on fuels, natural gas, electricity, communications, and transit, promising short-term price relief amid inflation, with federal compensation to states and potential legal challenges affecting investments and ANP auctions.

 

Key Points

A policy capping state VAT at 17-18 percent on fuels, electricity, and services to temper prices and inflation.

✅ Caps VAT to 17-18% on fuels, power, telecom, transit

✅ Short-term relief; medium-long term impact uncertain

✅ Federal compensation; potential court challenges, investment risk

 

Brazil’s congress approved a bill that limits the ICMS tax rate that state governments can charge on fuels, natural gas, electricity, communications, and public transportation. 

Local lawyers told BNamericas that the measure may reduce fuel and power prices in the short term, similar to Brazil power sector relief loans seen during the pandemic, but it is unlikely to produce any major effects in the medium and long term. 

In most states the ceiling was set at 17% or 18% and the federal government will pay compensation to the states for lost tax revenue until December 31, via reduced payments on debts that states owe the federal government.

The bill will become law once signed by President Jair Bolsonaro, who pushed strongly for the proposal with an eye on his struggling reelection campaign for the October presidential election. Double-digit inflation has turned into a major election issue and fuel and electricity prices have been among the main inflation drivers, as seen in EU energy-driven inflation across the bloc this year. Congress’ approval of the bill is seen by analysts as political victory for the Brazilian leader.

How much difference will it make?

Marcus Francisco, tax specialist and partner at Villemor Amaral Advogados, said that in the formation of fuel and electricity prices there are other factors, including high natural gas prices, that drive increases.

“In the case of fuels, if the barrel of oil [price] increases, automatically the final price for the consumer will go up. For electricity, on the other hand, there are several subsidies and policy choices such as Florida rejecting federal solar incentives that are part of the price and that can increase the rate [paid],” he said. 

There is also a possibility that some states will take the issue to the supreme court since ICMS is a key source of revenue for them, Francisco added.

Tiago Severini, a partner at law firm Vieira Rezende, said the comparison between the revenue impact and the effective price reduction, based on the estimates made by the states and the federal government, seems disproportionate, and, as seen in Europe, rolling back European electricity prices is often tougher than it appears. 

“In other words, a large tax collection impact is generated, which is quite unequal among the different states, for a not so strong price reduction,” he said.

“Due to the lack of clarity regarding the precision of the calculations involved, it’s difficult even to assess the adequacy of the offsets the federal government has been considering, and international cases such as France's new electricity pricing scheme illustrate how complex it can be to align fiscal offsets with regulatory constraints, to cover the cost it would have with the compensation for the states” Severini added.

The compensation ideas that are known so far include hiking other taxes, such as the social contribution on net profits (CSLL) that is paid by oil and gas firms focused on exploration and production.

“This can generate severe adverse effects, such as legal disputes, reduced investments in the country, and reduced attractiveness of the new auctions by [sector regulator] ANP, and costly interventions like the Texas electricity market bailout after extreme weather events,” Severini said. 

 

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India's electricity demand falls at the fastest pace in at least 12 years

India Industrial Output Slowdown deepens as power demand slumps, IIP contracts, and electricity, manufacturing, and mining weaken; capital goods plunge while RBI rate cuts struggle to lift GDP growth, infrastructure, and fuel demand.

 

Key Points

A downturn where IIP contracts as power demand, manufacturing, mining, and capital goods fall despite RBI rate cuts.

✅ IIP fell 4.3% in Sep, worst since Feb 2013.

✅ Power demand dropped for a third month, signaling weak industry.

✅ Capital goods output plunged 20.7%, highlighting weak investment.

 

India's power demand fell at the fastest pace in at least 12 years in October, signalling a continued decline in the industrial output, mirroring how China's power demand dropped when plants were shuttered, according to government data. Electricity has about 8% weighting in the country's index for industrial production.

India needs electricity to fuel its expanding economy and has at times rationed coal supplies when demand surged, but a third decline in power consumption in as many months points to tapering industrial activity in a nation that aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024.

India's industrial output fell at the fastest pace in over six years in September, adding to a series of weak indicators that suggests that the country’s economic slowdown is deep-rooted and interest rate cuts alone may not be enough to revive growth.

Annual industrial output contracted 4.3% in September, government data showed on Monday. It was the worst performance since a 4.4% contraction in February 2013, according to Refinitiv data.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast industrial output to fall 2% for the month.

“A contraction of industrial production by 4.3% in September is serious and indicative of a significant slowdown as both investment and consumption demand have collapsed,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist of L&T Finance Holdings.

The industrial output figure is the latest in a series of worrying economic data in Asia's third largest economy, which is also the world's third-largest electricity producer as well.

Economists say that weak series of data could mean economic growth for July-September period will remain near April-June quarter levels of 5%, which was a six-year low, and some analysts argue for rewiring India's electricity to bolster productivity. The Indian government is likely to release April-September economic growth figures by the end of this month.

Subdued inflation and an economic slowdown have prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates by a total of 135 basis points this year, while coal and electricity shortages eased in recent months.

“These are tough times for the RBI, as it cannot do much about it but there will be pressures on it to act ...Blunt tools like monetary policy may not be effective anymore,” Nitsure said.

Data showed in September mining sector fell 8.5%, while manufacturing and electricity fell 3.9% and 2.6% respectively, even as imported coal volumes rose during April-October. Capital goods output during the month fell 20.7%, indicating sluggish demand.

“IIP (Index of Industrial Production) growth in October 2019 is also likely to be in negative territory and only since November 2019 one can expect mild IIP expansion, said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Senior Director, Public Finance, India Ratings & Research (Fitch Group).

Infrastructure output, which comprises eight main sectors, in September showed a contraction of 5.2%, the worst in 14 years, even as global daily electricity demand fell about 15% during pandemic lockdowns.

India's fuel demand fell to its lowest in more than two years in September, with consumption of diesel to its lowest levels since January 2017. Diesel and gasoline together make up over 7.4% of the IIP weightage.

In 2019/20 India's fuel demand — also seen as an indicator of economic and industrial activity — is expected to post the slowest growth in about six years.

 

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