Software predicts power output for wind

By RenewableEnergyWorld.com


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There's a storm brewing, the wind speed is picking up and you're asking yourself: Just how much electricity will a particular wind park produce in the next five days?

How much electricity will all the wind parks located in particular region, or even country, produce in the next few days for the national grid? Will the wind keep on blowing? And whereabouts exactly?

Thanks to a new system developed by a German university spin-off, it's now possible to obtain an accurate forecast of the energy output from wind parks for up to ten days in advance.

The Previento system, developed at Oldenburg University in northern Germany in cooperation with researchers from Denmark's Riso National Laboratory, can predict not only how much electricity a specific wind park in Germany will produce but also the total amount of electricity the 20,000 or so wind parks dotted around the country will generate in the coming days and with a high level of accuracy.

Armed with these predictions, Germany's grid operators can now calculate the amount of additional electricity they will need from fossil-fuel plants to compensate for troughs in wind output — and so ensure the expected power demand is covered reliably.

"The German electricity industry has to able to plan today how much electricity it will need tomorrow as well as how that electricity will be produced. That is what our system helps them to do," Dr. Matthias Lange from energy & meteo systems, the Oldenburg spin-off, said.

"Accurate predictions about wind power allow grid operators to save millions of euros through efficient scheduling," he added.

A system that can predict how much electricity is going to be available from wind power for the national grid has become so important in Germany because wind's share of the country's electricity generation is growing all the time, and reshaping the electricity industry.

Wind power accounted for 7.2 percent of Germany's total electricity consumption at the end of 2007 with 22,200 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity.

According to the German Wind Energy Association (BWE), installed capacity is set to double by 2020 with 45,000 MW installed on land and 10,000 MW offshore.

In fact, the BWE estimates that every fourth kilowatt hour of electricity will be coming from wind power within 12 years.

"The amount of wind power used today in Germany is so big that all the other types of power plants have to adapt themselves around the wind power output and increase or decrease their contribution depending on what wind does," said Lange.

Because Previento can give plenty of warning about big deviations and sudden peaks and troughs in wind power output, it also plays a big role in the regional energy spot markets. The amount of wind power entering the grid impacts electricity prices: the more wind power available, the lower the electricity price becomes, Lange explained. This is because less conventional energy has to be purchased by energy providers for the next few days to cover the expected demand.

The predictions are more accurate, the shorter the timeframe — but predictions for up to 10 days in advance are available, Lange said. The prediction error of the system is within 5 percent in 70 percent of the cases in Germany.

So what makes Previento's predictions so accurate?

According to Lange, the key is that the system was developed inside Oldenburg's physics department — and atmospheric physics as well as the shape of local terrain strongly influences the amount of electricity a wind park will produce.

The system calculates the amount of wind available at any particular location using a variety of weather models available from multiple weather services. The German Weather Services, for example, supplies information on wind speed, wind direction, pressure and a vertical temperature profile for rectangular grids with a resolution of 7 kilometers.

Previento processes this data and combines it with data about the features of local terrain of a wind park, such as the amount of wooded area or the bodies of water around a wind park to form an accurate estimation of the electricity output at any given time.

The system is proving a global hit with interest in it coming from Spain, Scandinavia, America, Canada and Ireland.

The system was developed in 2001 by the energy meteorology research group at the Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg and ForWind, the center for wind energy research based in Oldenburg. The energy & meteo spin-off company was founded in 2004, and is a pioneer in the new discipline of energy meteorology which puts weather forecasts at the service of renewable energy.

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Alberta creates fund to help communities hit by coal phase-out

Alberta Coal Community Transition Fund backs renewables, natural gas, and economic diversification, offering grants, workforce retraining, and community development to municipalities and First Nations as Alberta phases out coal-fired power by 2030.

 

Key Points

A provincial grant helping coal-impacted communities diversify, retrain workers, and transition to renewables by 2030.

✅ Grants for municipalities and First Nations

✅ Supports diversification and job retraining

✅ Focus on renewables, natural gas, and new sectors

 

The Coal Community Transition Fund is open to municipalities and First Nations affected as Alberta phases out coal-fired electricity by 2030 under the federal coal plan to focus on renewables and natural gas.

Economic Development Minister Deron Bilous says the government wants to ensure these communities thrive through the transition, aligning with views that fossil-fuel workers support the energy transition across the economy.

“Residents in our communities have concerns about the transition away from coal, even as discussions about phasing out fossil fuels in B.C. unfold nationally,” Rod Shaigec, mayor of Parkland County, said.

“They also have ideas on how we can mitigate the impacts on workers and diversify our economy, including clean energy partnerships to create new employment opportunities for affected workers. We are working to address those concerns and support their ideas. This funding means we can make those ideas a reality in various economic sectors of opportunity.”

The coal-mining town of Hanna, northeast of Calgary, has already received $450,000 through the program to work on economic diversification, exploring options like bridging the Alberta-B.C. electricity gap that could support new industries.

The application deadline for the coal transition fund is the end of November.

A provincial advisory panel is also expected to report back this fall on ways to create new jobs and retrain workers during the coal phase-out.

 

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San Diego Gas & Electric Orders Mitsubishi Power Emerald Storage Solution

SDG&E Mitsubishi Power Energy Storage adds a 10 MW/60 MWh BESS in Pala, boosting grid reliability, renewable integration, and flexibility with EMS and SCADA controls, LFP safety chemistry, NERC CIP compliance, UL 9540 standards.

 

Key Points

A 10 MW/60 MWh BESS for SDG&E in Pala that enhances grid reliability, renewables usage, and operational flexibility.

✅ Emerald EMS/SCADA meets NERC CIP, IEC/ISA 62443, NIST 800-53

✅ LFP chemistry with UL 9540 and UL 9540A safety compliance

✅ Adds capacity, energy, and ancillary services to CA grid

 

San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E), a regulated public utility that provides energy service to 3.7 million people, has awarded Mitsubishi Power an order for a 10 megawatt (MW) / 60 megawatt-hour (MWh) energy storage solution for its Pala-Gomez Creek Energy Storage Project in Pala, California. The battery energy storage system (BESS) will add capacity to help meet high energy demand, support grid reliability and operational flexibility, underscoring the broader benefits of energy storage now recognized by utilities, maximize use of renewable energy, and help prevent outages during peak demand.

The BESS project is Mitsubishi Power’s eighth in California, bringing total capacity to 280 MW / 1,140 MWh of storage to help meet California’s clean energy goals with reliable power to complement renewables, alongside emerging solutions like a California green hydrogen microgrid for added resilience.

Mitsubishi Power’s Emerald storage solution for SDG&E includes full turnkey design, engineering, procurement, and construction, as well as a 10-year long-term service agreement, aligning with CEC long-duration storage funding initiatives underway. It is scheduled to be online in early 2023.

The project will repower an existing energy storage site. It will employ Mitsubishi Power’s Emerald Integrated Plant Controller, which is an Energy Management System (EMS) and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system with real-time BESS operation and a monitoring/supervisory control platform. Mitsubishi Power leverages its decades of technology monitoring and diagnostics to turn data into actionable insights to maximize reliability, a priority as regions like Ontario increasingly rely on battery storage to meet rising demand. The Mitsubishi Power Emerald Integrated Plant Controller complies with North American Electric Reliability Corporation critical infrastructure protection (NERC CIP) standards and meets the highest security certification in the energy storage industry (IEC/ISA 62443, NIST 800-53) for maximum protection from cybersecurity risks and vulnerabilities.

For added physical safety, Mitsubishi Power’s solution employs lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry, aligning with BESS adoption in New York where safety and performance are critical. Compared with other chemistries, LFP provides longer life and superior thermal stability and chemical stability, while meeting UL 9540 and UL 9540A safety standards.

Fernando Valero, Director, Advanced Clean Technology, SDG&E, said, “SDG&E is committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. We are increasing our portfolio of energy storage assets, including virtual power plant models, to reach this goal. These assets enhance grid reliability and operational flexibility while maximizing our use of abundant renewable energy sources in California.”

Tom Cornell, Senior Vice President, Energy Storage Solutions, Mitsubishi Power Americas, said, “As more and more renewables come online during the energy transition, BESS solutions are essential to support a reliable and stable grid. We look forward to providing SDG&E with our BESS solution to add capacity, energy, and ancillary services to California’s grid. Mitsubishi Power’s Emerald storage solutions are enabling a smarter and more resilient energy future for our customers in California and around the globe, with projects like an energy storage demonstration in India underscoring this momentum.”

 

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France Demonstrates the Role of Nuclear Power Plants

France Nuclear Power Strategy illustrates a low-carbon, reliable baseload complementing renewables in the energy transition, enhancing grid reliability, energy security, and emissions reduction, offering actionable lessons for Germany on infrastructure, policy, and public acceptance.

 

Key Points

France's nuclear strategy is a low-carbon baseload model supporting renewables, grid reliability, and energy security.

✅ Stable low-carbon baseload complements intermittent renewables

✅ Enhances grid reliability and national energy security

✅ Requires long-term investment, safety, and waste management

 

In recent months, France has showcased the critical role that nuclear power plants can play in an energy transition, offering valuable lessons for Germany and other countries grappling with their own energy challenges. As Europe continues to navigate its path towards a sustainable and reliable energy system, France's experience with nuclear energy underscores its potential benefits and the complexities involved, including outage risks in France that operators must manage effectively.

France, a long-time proponent of nuclear energy, generates about 70% of its electricity from nuclear power, making it one of the most nuclear-dependent countries in the world. This high reliance on nuclear energy has allowed France to maintain a stable and low-carbon electricity supply, which is increasingly significant as nations aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, even as Europe's nuclear capacity declines in several markets, and combat climate change.

Recent events in France have highlighted several key aspects of nuclear power's role in energy transition:

  1. Reliability and Stability: During periods of high renewable energy generation or extreme weather events, nuclear power plants have proven to be a stable and reliable source of electricity. Unlike solar and wind power, which are intermittent and depend on weather conditions, nuclear plants provide a consistent and continuous supply of power. This stability is crucial for maintaining grid reliability and ensuring that energy demand is met even when renewable sources are not producing electricity.

  2. Low Carbon Footprint: France’s commitment to nuclear energy has significantly contributed to its low carbon emissions. By relying heavily on nuclear power, France has managed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions substantially compared to many other countries. This achievement is particularly relevant as Europe strives to meet ambitious climate targets, with debates over a nuclear option in Germany highlighting climate trade-offs, and reduce overall carbon footprints. The low emissions associated with nuclear power make it an important tool for achieving climate goals and transitioning away from fossil fuels.

  3. Energy Security: Nuclear power has played a vital role in France's energy security. The country’s extensive network of nuclear power plants ensures a stable and secure supply of electricity, reducing its dependency on imported energy sources. This energy security is particularly important in the context of global energy market fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties. France’s experience demonstrates how nuclear energy can contribute to a nation’s energy independence and resilience.

  4. Economic Benefits: The nuclear industry in France also provides significant economic benefits. It supports thousands of jobs in construction, operation, and maintenance of power plants, as well as in the supply chain for nuclear fuel and waste management. Additionally, the stable and relatively low cost of nuclear-generated electricity can contribute to lower energy prices for consumers and businesses, enhancing economic stability.

Germany, in contrast, has been moving away from nuclear energy, particularly following the Fukushima disaster in 2011. The country has committed to phasing out its nuclear reactors by 2022 and focusing on expanding renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. While Germany's renewable energy transition has made significant strides, it has also faced challenges related to grid stability, as Germany's energy balancing act illustrates for policymakers, energy storage, and maintaining reliable power supplies during periods of low renewable generation.

France’s experience with nuclear energy offers several lessons for Germany and other nations considering their own energy strategies:

  • Balanced Energy Mix: A diverse energy mix that includes nuclear power alongside renewable sources can help ensure a stable and reliable electricity supply, as ongoing discussions about a nuclear resurgence in Germany emphasize for policymakers today. While renewable energy is essential for reducing carbon emissions, it can be intermittent and may require backup from other sources to maintain grid reliability. Nuclear power can complement renewable energy by providing a steady and consistent supply of electricity.

  • Investment in Infrastructure: To maximize the benefits of nuclear energy, investment in infrastructure is crucial. This includes not only the construction and maintenance of power plants but also the development of waste management systems and safety protocols. France’s experience demonstrates the importance of long-term planning and investment to ensure the safe and effective use of nuclear technology.

  • Public Perception and Policy: Public perception of nuclear energy can significantly impact its adoption and deployment, and ongoing Franco-German nuclear disputes show how politics shape outcomes across borders. Transparent communication, rigorous safety standards, and effective waste management are essential for addressing public concerns and building trust in nuclear technology. France’s successful use of nuclear power is partly due to its emphasis on safety and regulatory compliance.

In conclusion, France's experience with nuclear power provides valuable insights into the role that this technology can play in an energy transition. By offering a stable, low-carbon, and reliable source of electricity, nuclear power complements renewable energy sources and supports overall energy security. As Germany and other countries navigate their energy transitions, France's example underscores the importance of a balanced energy mix, robust infrastructure, and effective public engagement in harnessing the benefits of nuclear power while addressing associated challenges, with industry voices such as Eon boss on nuclear debate underscoring the sensitivity of cross-border critiques.

 

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New York Faces Soaring Energy Bills

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Why is New York Facing Soaring Energy Bills?

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Utilities across the state are pushing for significant price increases, citing aging infrastructure, the need for climate adaptation, and higher operating costs, as California regulators face calls for action amid rising bills. “We used to see single-digit rate hikes and now we see double-digit rate hikes,” said Jessica Azulay, executive director of the Alliance for a Green Economy. “That’s a new normal that is unacceptable.”

Several utilities have requested delivery rate increases of 25 percent or more, with some proposals as high as 39 percent. Upstate utilities NYSEG and RG&E are seeking to raise electric and gas bills by about $33 a month, although regulators are unlikely to approve the full amount.

The companies argue the hikes are needed “to pay for rebuilding an aging grid and expanding its capacity to meet residents’ and businesses’ service demands,” including storm repairs. They also claim the plan would create more than 1,000 jobs.

James Denn, a spokesperson for the Public Service Commission (PSC), said much of the cost pressure stems from “inflation, higher interest rates, supply chain disruptions, the global push to upgrade electrical infrastructure, and, most recently, the rising risk and uncertainty from tariffs,” trends reflected in U.S. electricity price data over the past two years.

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The state estimates Trump’s policy shifts could cost New York $60 billion in lost renewable investment. With fewer clean-energy projects moving forward, gas — which already supplies roughly half of the state’s electricity — will remain the dominant source, tying energy prices to volatile global markets and the kinds of price drivers seen in California in recent years.

Governor Kathy Hochul has called affordability “our greatest short-term challenge,” while consumer advocates are demanding reforms to reduce utility profits and overhaul “rate design,” and to strengthen protections such as the emergency disconnection moratorium that applies during declared emergencies.

“There is definitely a groundswell of concern,” Wheelock said. “We go to meetings and we’re getting questions about rate design, like, ‘What is the revenue decoupling mechanism?’ Never had that question before.”

 

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Key Points

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Wind and solar energy doubled its share of the global power mix over the last five years, with renewable power records underscoring the trend, moving the world closer to a path that would limit the worst effects of global warming.

The sources of renewable energy made up nearly 10% of power in most parts of the world in the first half of this year, according to analysis from U.K. environmental group Ember, while globally over 30% of electricity is renewable in broader assessments.

That decarbonization of the power grid was boosted this year as shutdowns to contain the coronavirus reduced demand overall, leaving renewables to pick up the slack.

Ember analyzed generation in 48 countries that represent 83% of global electricity. The data showed wind and solar power increased 14% in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period last year while global demand fell 3% because of the impact of the coronavirus.

At the same time that wind turbines and solar panels have proliferated, coal’s share of the mix has fallen around the world. In some, mainly western European countries, where renewables surpassed fossil fuels, coal has been all but eliminated from electricity generation.


China relied on the dirtiest fossil fuel for 68% of its power five years ago, and solar PV growth in China has accelerated since then. That share dipped to 62% this year and renewables made up 10% of all electricity generated.

Still, the growth of renewables may not be going fast enough for the world to hit its climate goals, even as the U.S. is projected to have one-fourth of electricity from renewables soon, and coal is still being burnt for power in many parts of the world.

Coal use needs to fall by about 79% by 2030 from last year’s levels - a fall of 13% every year throughout the decade to come, and in the U.S. renewable electricity surpassed coal in 2022, Ember said.

New installations of wind farms are set to hold more or less steady in the next five years, according to data from BloombergNEF on deployment trends. That will make it difficult to realize a sustained pace of doubling renewable power every five years.

“If your expectations are that we need to be on target for 1.5 degrees, clearly we’re not going fast enough,” said Dave Jones, an analyst at Ember. “We’re not on a trajectory where we’re reducing coal emissions fast enough.”

 

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