Bellefonte to become working nuclear plant?

By The Tennessean


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The TVA board will consider changing part of its electricity rate structure and upping its spending to explore the controversial possibility of turning its Bellefonte site into a working nuclear plant.

A change in the Tennessee Valley Authority rate structure related to the "fuel cost adjustment" formula is up for discussion. The formula today changes the electric rates every month, depending on the price of fuel for electricity production.

Under this scenario, the public pays and also is compensated more quickly when the cost goes up or down.

The costs, which are passed on to ratepayers, have repeatedly gone up over the last several months.

TVA's Bellefonte property is on the Tennessee River about two hours southeast of Nashville. Several environmental and anti-nuclear groups have said that the public power producer should not commit money to what they say is a costly and risky nuclear plant until energy efficiency and conservation measures are fully explored and implemented.

Ratepayer money is used to back whatever decision the board makes.

The public can comment at a “listening session” held at 8:30 a.m. EDT before the board meeting on August 20. To speak, pre-register at www.tva.gov or sign in that morning before the session begins.

The boardÂ’s formal meeting starts after the last public comment has been made.

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Scottish North Sea wind farm to resume construction after Covid-19 stoppage

NnG Offshore Wind Farm restarts construction off Scotland, backed by EDF Renewables and ESB, CfD 2015, 54 turbines, powering 375,000 homes, 500 jobs, delivering GBP 540 million, with Covid-19 safety measures and staggered workforce.

 

Key Points

A 54-turbine Scottish offshore project by EDF Renewables and ESB, resuming to power 375,000 homes and support 500 jobs.

✅ Awarded a CfD in 2015; 54 turbines off Scotland's east coast.

✅ Projected to power 375,000 homes and deliver GBP 540 million locally.

✅ Staggered workforce return with Covid-19 control measures and oversight.

 

Neart Na Gaoithe (NnG) Offshore Wind Farm, owned by  EDF Renewables and Irish firm ESB, stopped construction in March, even as the world's most powerful tidal turbine showcases progress in marine energy.

Project boss Matthias Haag announced last night the 54-turbine wind farm would restart construction this week, as the largest UK offshore wind farm begins supplying power, underscoring sector momentum.

Located off Scotland’s east coast, where wind farms already power millions of homes, it was awarded a Contract for Difference (CfD) in 2015 and will look to generate enough energy to power 375,000 homes.

It is expected to create around 500 jobs, and supply chain growth like GE's new offshore blade factory jobs shows wider industry momentum, while also delivering £540 million to the local economy.

Mr Haag, NnG project director, said the wind farm build would resume with a small, staggered workforce return in line social distancing rules, and with broader energy sector conditions, including Hinkley Point C setbacks that challenge the UK's blueprint.

He added: “Initially, we will only have a few people on site to put in place control measures so the rest of the team can start work safely later that week.

“Once that’s happened we will have a reduced workforce on site, including essential supervisory staff.

“The arrangements we have put in place will be under regular review as we continue to closely monitor Covid-19 and follow the Scottish Government’s guidance.”

NnG wind farm, a 54-turbine projects, was due to begin full offshore construction in June 2020 before the Covid-19 outbreak, at a time when a Scottish tidal project had just demonstrated it could power thousands of homes.

EDF Renewables sold half of the NnG project to Irish firm ESB in November last year, and parent company EDF recently saw the Hinkley C reactor roof lifted into place, highlighting progress alongside renewables.

The first initial payment was understood to be around £50 million.

 

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Medicine Hat Grant Winners to Upgrade Grid and Use AI for Energy Savings

Medicine Hat Smart Grid AI modernizes electricity distribution with automation, sensors, and demand response, enhancing energy efficiency and renewable integration while using predictive analytics and real-time data to reduce consumption and optimize grid operations.

 

Key Points

An initiative using smart grid tech and AI to optimize energy use, cut waste, and improve renewable integration.

✅ Predictive analytics forecast demand to balance load and prevent outages.

✅ Automation, sensors, and meters enable dynamic, resilient distribution.

✅ Integrates solar and wind with demand response to cut emissions.

 

The city of Medicine Hat, Alberta, is taking bold steps toward enhancing its energy infrastructure and reducing electricity consumption with the help of innovative technology. Recently, several grant winners have been selected to improve the city's electricity grid distribution and leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to adapt to electricity demands while optimizing energy use. These projects promise to not only streamline energy delivery but also contribute to more sustainable practices by reducing energy waste.

Advancing the Electricity Grid

Medicine Hat’s electricity grid is undergoing a significant transformation, thanks to a new set of initiatives funded by government grants that advance a smarter electricity infrastructure vision for the region. The city has long been known for its commitment to sustainable energy practices, and these new projects are part of that legacy. The winners of the grants aim to modernize the city’s electricity grid to make it more resilient, efficient, and adaptable to the changing demands of the future, aligning with macrogrid strategies adopted nationally.

At the core of these upgrades is the integration of smart grid technologies. A smart grid is a more advanced version of the traditional power grid, incorporating digital communications and real-time data to optimize the delivery and use of electricity. By connecting sensors, meters, and control systems across the grid, along with the integration of AI data centers where appropriate, the grid can detect and respond to changes in demand, adjust to faults or outages, and even integrate renewable energy sources more efficiently.

One of the key aspects of the grant-funded projects involves automating the grid. Automation allows for the dynamic adjustment of power distribution in response to changes in demand or supply, reducing the risk of blackouts or inefficiencies. For instance, if an area of the city experiences a surge in energy use, the grid can automatically reroute power from less-used areas or adjust the distribution to avoid overloading circuits. This kind of dynamic response is crucial for maintaining a stable and reliable electricity supply.

Moreover, the enhanced grid will be able to better incorporate renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, reflecting British Columbia's clean-energy shift as well, which are increasingly important in Alberta’s energy mix. By utilizing a more flexible and responsive grid, Medicine Hat can make the most of renewable energy when it is available, reducing reliance on non-renewable sources.

Using AI to Reduce Energy Consumption

While improving the grid infrastructure is an essential first step, the real innovation comes in the form of using artificial intelligence (AI) to reduce energy consumption. Several of the grant winners are focused on developing AI-driven solutions that can predict energy demand patterns, optimize energy use in real-time, and encourage consumers to reduce unnecessary energy consumption.

AI can be used to analyze vast amounts of data from across the electricity grid, such as weather forecasts, historical energy usage, and real-time consumption data. This analysis can then be used to make predictions about future energy needs. For example, AI can predict when the demand for electricity will peak, allowing the grid operators to adjust supply ahead of time, ensuring a more efficient distribution of power. By predicting high-demand periods, AI can also assist in optimizing the use of renewable energy sources, ensuring that solar and wind power are utilized when they are most abundant.

In addition to grid management, AI can help consumers save energy by making smarter decisions about how and when to use electricity. For instance, AI-powered smart home devices can learn household routines and adjust heating, cooling, and appliance usage to reduce energy consumption without compromising comfort. By using data to optimize energy use, these technologies not only reduce costs for consumers but also decrease overall demand on the grid, leading to a more sustainable energy system.

The AI initiatives are also expected to assist businesses in reducing their carbon footprints. By using AI to monitor and optimize energy use, industrial and commercial enterprises can cut down on waste and reduce energy-related operational costs, while anticipating digital load growth signaled by an Alberta data centre agreement in the province. This has the potential to make Medicine Hat a more energy-efficient city, benefiting both residents and businesses alike.

A Sustainable Future

The integration of smart grid technology and AI-driven solutions is positioning Medicine Hat as a leader in sustainable energy practices. The city’s approach is focused not only on improving energy efficiency and reducing waste but also on making electricity consumption more manageable and adaptable in a rapidly changing world. These innovations are a crucial part of Medicine Hat's long-term strategy to reduce carbon emissions and meet climate goals while ensuring reliable and affordable energy for its residents.

In addition to the immediate benefits of these projects, the broader impact is likely to influence other municipalities across Canada, including insights from Toronto's electricity planning for rapid growth, and beyond. As the technology matures and proves successful, it could set a benchmark for other cities looking to modernize their energy grids and adopt sustainable, AI-driven solutions.

By investing in these forward-thinking technologies, Medicine Hat is not only future-proofing its energy infrastructure but also taking decisive steps toward a greener, more energy-efficient future. The collaboration between local government, technology providers, and the community marks a significant milestone in the city’s commitment to innovation and sustainability.

 

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Winter Storm Leaves Many In Texas Without Power And Water

Texas Power Grid Crisis strains ERCOT as extreme cold, ice storms, and heavy snow trigger rolling blackouts, load shedding, and boil-water notices, leaving millions without electricity while frozen turbines and low gas pressure hinder generation.

 

Key Points

A statewide emergency of outages and boil-water notices as ERCOT battles extreme cold and load shedding.

✅ Millions without power; ERCOT orders load shedding

✅ Boil-water notices in Austin, Houston, Fort Worth

✅ Frozen equipment, low gas pressure, extreme cold disrupt supply

 

Nearly 3 million homes and businesses in Texas remain without power, some for a third consecutive day, as severe winter weather continues to pummel the state, forcing some localities to issue boil-water notices and urge residents to reduce their electricity usage.

Heavy snowfall, ice storms and bitter temperatures continue to put an enormous strain on the state's power grid. This as the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages roughly 75% of the Texas power grid, announced Wednesday morning that some 600,000 households had power restored overnight.

That still left another 2.7 million customers having to endure extreme cold with no indication of when the thaw would break in their homes.

"We know millions of people are suffering," ERCOT's president and CEO, Bill Magness, said in a statement Wednesday. "We have no other priority than getting them electricity. No other priority."

ERCOT also said Wednesday that it was urging local utilities to shed some 14,000 megawatts of load, which translates to roughly 2.8 million customers, to prepare for a sudden increase in demand.

"The ability to restore more power is contingent on more generation coming back online," said Dan Woodfin, the senior director of ERCOT's system operations, and utility supply-chain constraints can further complicate repair timelines for some utilities.

He said that about 185 generating units were offline, stemming from a range of factors including frozen wind turbines, low gas pressure and frozen instrumentation.

But many Texans feel abandoned by the council and power companies and they are lashing out at the local face of utilities.

The City of Austin's community-owned electric utility, Austin Energy, issued a tweet saying crews that are working to restore power are facing harassment.


"Our crews have been working 24/7 and in these elements," Austin Energy announced. "Some of our crews are reporting incidents of harassment, threatening them and even throwing things at them."

Officials pleaded with the public to remain calm. "I know people are extremely frustrated. But please, I bet of you, do not approach AE crews."

Parts of Austin are under a boil water notice, which Austin Water Director Greg Meszaros attempted to explain during a press briefing Wednesday afternoon.

"There was a large main break in that area, maybe multiple ones. We're seeing main breaks and pipes bursting by the tens of thousands. Our entire system is under stress," Meszaros said.

It's not just the Lone Star State that is being crippled by the arctic blast, with a deep freeze slamming the energy sector across the country.

At least two dozen people have died this week from weather-related incidents, according to The Associated Press.

The National Weather Service reports that more than 100 million Americans are being affected by extreme winter weather from the south central U.S. to the East Coast, including Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia, and analysts warn of blackout risks nationwide during extreme heat as well.

The National Weather Service adds that cold temperatures over the nation's heartland will begin to "moderate in the coming days" but that many parts will remain 20 to 35 degrees below normal in the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes region.

"Potential is increasing for significant icing across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, which will be very impactful, especially for those hardest hit from the previous ice storm," the National Weather Service tweeted Wednesday.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott railed against ERCOT, and Elon Musk criticized the agency as unreliable, saying the utility "has been anything but reliable over the past 48 hours."

"This is unacceptable," Abbott added, as residents were facing rotating intentional power outages. The governor issued an executive order that will add reforms for how the power grid is managed, including grid reliability improvements under discussion, as an emergency legislative item for the state legislature to review.

The rolling power outages forced Fort Worth to extend a boil-water notice for roughly 212,000 residents. Officials said the outages affected the city's systems that both treat water and move it to customers.

Fort Worth officials said nine other localities that purchase water from the city are also affected, including Haslet, Keller, Lake Worth and Northlake.

Officials in Houston also issued a boil-water notice for the city's residents Wednesday.

"Do not drink the water without boiling it first," Houston Public Works said from its official Twitter account. "Bring all water to a boil for at least two minutes. Let it cool before using."

In Harris County, which includes Houston, Judge Lina Hidalgo warned residents about extended power outages.

"Let me give it to you straight, based on the visibility I have: Whether you have power or not right now, there is a possibility of power outages even beyond the length of this weather," Hidalgo said, according to Houston Public Media.

The NPR member station adds that county officials have also reported more than 300 cases of carbon monoxide poisoning since Monday as residents going without electricity search desperately for alternative sources of warmth.

"In no uncertain terms, this is a public health disaster and a public health emergency," Samuel Prater, an emergency physician at Memorial Hermann-Texas Medical Center, said at a news briefing Tuesday.

Prater warned residents that over the last 24 hours, emergency officials "have seen a striking increase in the number of cases related to improper heating sources," including indoor use of generators, charcoal grills, campfire stoves and other devices that are being used to warm homes. The result, he added, is carbon monoxide poisoning of entire families.

"If you think you or a loved one has become ill from carbon monoxide poisoning, first thing you need to do is get outside to fresh air," Prater said.

A woman and an 8-year-old girl are among those who have reportedly died from carbon monoxide poisoning after a vehicle was left running inside a garage in an attempt to generate heat, according to Houston's ABC affiliate.

As Texas endures further weather-related issues, including road and highway closures, there's a renewed focus on how the Texas power grid has failed, and why the grid is facing another crisis amid this prolonged cold.

The Texas electrical grid is "facing conditions that it was not designed for," said Emily Grubert, a professor at Georgia Tech whose expertise includes electric networks.

"These are really extreme conditions for the Texas grid. It's very cold. It's cold across the entire state, and it's cold for a long time. This does not happen very often," she said in an interview with NPR's Morning Edition.

"Demand really spiked both in the electricity and the natural gas systems at the same time as a lot of the generators were not able to operate because of those cold conditions, and not being prepared for it is really what's going on," Grubert said. "But a lot of grids are susceptible to really, really major failures when they are this far outside of design conditions."

Abbott told Fox News on Tuesday that with weather-related shutdowns in wind and solar energy, which account for more than 10% of the state's grid, renewable energy is partly to blame for the Texas power crisis, even as he later touted the grid's readiness heading into the fall.

"It just shows that fossil fuel is necessary for the state of Texas as well as other states to make sure that we'll be able to heat our homes in the wintertime and cool our homes in the summertime," Abbott said.

But Grubert said that "coal, gas and nuclear actually shut down because of the extreme cold due to things like instruments freezing, et cetera. So I think the overall point here is all of the fuels were really, really struggling."

 

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Tornadoes and More: What Spring Can Bring to the Power Grid

Spring Storm Grid Risks highlight tornado outbreaks, flooding, power outages, and transmission disruptions, with NOAA flood outlooks, coal and barge delays, vulnerable nuclear sites, and distribution line damage demanding resilience, reliability, and emergency preparedness.

 

Key Points

Spring Storm Grid Risks show how tornadoes and floods disrupt power systems, fuel transport, and plants guide resilience.

✅ Tornado outbreaks and derechos damage distribution and transmission

✅ Flooding drives outages via treefall, substation and plant inundation

✅ Fuel logistics disrupted: rail coal, river barges, road access

 

The storm and tornado outbreak that recently barreled through the US Midwest, South and Mid-Atlantic was a devastating reminder of how much danger spring can deliver, despite it being the “milder” season compared to summer and winter.  

Danger season is approaching, and the country is starting to see the impacts. 

The event killed at least 32 people across seven states. The National Weather Service is still tallying up the number of confirmed tornadoes, which has already passed 100. Communities coping with tragedy are assessing the damage, which so far includes at least 72 destroyed homes in one Tennessee county alone, and dozens more homes elsewhere. 

On Saturday, April 1–the day after the storm struck–there were 1.1 million US utility customers without power, even as EIA reported a January power generation surge earlier in the year. On Monday morning, April 3, there were still more than 80,000 customers in the dark, according to PowerOutage.us. The storm system brought disruptions to both distribution grids–those networks of local power lines you generally see running overhead to buildings–as well as the larger transmission grid in the Midwest, which is far less common than distribution-level issues. 

While we don’t yet have a lot of granular details about this latest storm’s grid impacts, recent shifts in demand like New York City's pandemic power patterns show how operating conditions evolve, and it’s worth going through what else the country might be in for this spring, as well as in future springs. Moreover, there are steps policymakers can take to prepare for these spring weather phenomena and bolster the reliability and resilience of the US power system. 

Heightened flood risk 
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a recent outlook that about 44 percent of the United States is at risk of floods this spring, equating to about 146 million people. This includes most of the eastern half of the country, the federal agency said. 

The agency also sees “major” flood risk potential in some parts of the Upper Mississippi River Basin, and relatively higher risk in the Sierra Nevada region, due in part to a historic snowpack in California.  

Multiple components of the power system can be affected by spring floods. 

Power lines – Floods can saturate soil and make trees more likely to uproot and fall onto power lines. This has been contributing to power outages during California’s recent heavy storms–called atmospheric rivers–that started over the winter. In other regions, soil moisture has even been used as a predictor of where power outages will occur due to hurricanes, so that utility companies are better prepared to send line repair crews to the right areas. Hurricanes are primarily a summer and fall phenomenon, and summer also brings grid stress from air conditioning demand in many states, so for now, during spring, they are less of a concern.  

Fuel transport – Spring floods can hinder the transportation of fuels like coal. While it is a heavily polluting fossil fuel that is set to continue declining as a fuel source for US electricity generation, with the EIA summer outlook for wind and solar pointing to further shifts, coal still accounted for roughly 20 percent of the country’s generation in 2022.   

About 70 percent of US coal is transported at least part of the way by trains. The rail infrastructure to transport coal from the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming–the country’s primary coal source–was proven to be vulnerable to extreme floods in the spring of 2011, and even more extreme floods in the spring of 2019. The 2019 floods’ disruptions of coal shipments to power plants via rail persisted for months and into the summertime, also affecting river shipments of coal by barge. In June 2019, hundreds of barges were stalled in the Mississippi River, through which millions of tons of the fossil fuel are normally transported. 

Power plants – Power plants themselves can also be at risk of flooding, since most of them are sited near a source of water that is used to create steam to spin the plants’ turbines, and conversely, low water levels can constrain hydropower as seen in Western Canada hydropower drought during recent reservoir shortfalls. Most US fossil fuel generating capacity from sources like methane gas, which recently set natural gas power records across the grid, and coal utilizes steam to generate electricity. 

However, much of the attention paid to the flood risk of power plant sites has centered on nuclear plants, a key source of low-carbon electricity discussed in IAEA low-carbon electricity lessons that also require a water source for the creation of steam, as well as for keeping the plant cool in an emergency. To name a notable flood example here in the United States–both visually and substantively–in 2011, the Fort Calhoun nuclear plant in Nebraska was completely surrounded by water due to late-spring flooding along the Missouri River. This sparked a lot of concerns because it was just a few months after the March 2011 meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan. The public was thankfully not harmed by the Nebraska incident, but this was unfortunately not an isolated incident in terms of flood risks posed to the US nuclear power fleet. 

 

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Electricity subsidies to pulp and paper mills to continue, despite NB Power's rising debt

NB Power Pulp and Paper Subsidies lower electricity rates for six New Brunswick mills using firm power benchmarks and interruptible discounts, while government mandates, utility debt, ratepayer impacts, and competitiveness pressures shape provincial energy policy.

 

Key Points

Provincial mandates that buy down firm electricity rates for six mills to a national average, despite NB Power's debt.

✅ Mandated buy-down to match national firm electricity rates

✅ Ignores large non-firm interruptible power discounts

✅ Raises equity concerns amid NB Power debt and rate pressure

 

An effort to fix NB Power's struggling finances that is supposed to involve a look at "all options" will not include a review of the policy that requires the utility to subsidize electricity prices for six New Brunswick pulp and paper mills, according to the Department of Natural Resources and Energy Development.

The program is meant "to enable New Brunswick's pulp and paper companies have access to competitive priced electricity,"  said the department's communications officer Nick Brown in an email Monday 

"Keeping our large industries competitive with other Canadian jurisdictions, amid Nova Scotia rate hike opposition debates elsewhere, is important," he wrote, knocking down the idea the subsidy program might be scrutinized for shortcomings like other NB Power expenses.

Figures released last week show NB Power paid out $9.7 million in rate subsidies to the mills under the program in the fiscal year ended in March 2021, even though the utility was losing $4 million for the year and falling deeper into debt, amid separate concerns about old meter issues affecting households.

Subsidies went to three mills owned by J.D. Irving Ltd. including two in Saint John and one in Lake Utopia, two owned by the AV group in Nackawic and Atholville and the Twin Rivers pulp mill in Edmundston.

The New Brunswick government has made NB Power subsidize pulp and paper mills like Twin Rivers Paper Company since 2012, and is requiring the program to continue despite financial problems at the utility. (CBC)
It was NB Power's second year in a row of financial losses, while it is supposed to pay down $500 million of its $4.9 billion debt load in the next five years to prepare for the refurbishment of the Mactaquac dam, a burden comparable to customers in Newfoundland paying for Muskrat Falls elsewhere under separate policies, under a directive issued by the province

NB Power president Keith Cronkhite said he was "very disappointed" with debt increasing last year instead of  falling and senior vice president and chief financial officer Darren Murphy said everything would be under the microscope this year to turn the utility's finances around.  

"We need to do better," said Murphy on Thursday

"We need to step back and make sure we're considering all options, including approaches like Newfoundland's ratepayer shield agreement on megaproject overruns, to achieve that objective because the objective is quickly closing in on us."

However, reviewing the subsidy program for the six pulp and paper mills is apparently off limits.

The subsidy program requires NB Power to buy down the cost of "firm" electricity bought by pulp and paper mills to a national average that is calculated by the Department of Natural Resources and Energy Development.

Last year the province declared the price mills in New Brunswick pay to be an average of  7.536 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh).  It is higher than rates in five other provinces that have mills, which the province points to as justification for the subsidies, even as Nova Scotia's 14% rate hike approval highlights broader upward pressure, although the true significance of that difference is not entirely clear.

In British Columbia, the large forest products company Paper Excellence operates five pulp and paper mills which are charged 17.2 per cent less for firm electricity than the six mills in New Brunswick.

The Paper Excellence Paper Mill in Port Alberni, B.C. pays lower electricity prices than mills in New Brunswick, a benefit largely offset by higher property taxes. It's a factor New Brunswick does not count in calculating subsidies NB Power must pay. (Paper Excellence)
However, local property taxes on the five BC mills are a combined $7.8 million higher than the six New Brunswick plants, negating much of that difference.

The province's subsidy formula does not account for differences like that or for the fact New Brunswick mills buy a high percentage of their electricity at cheap non-firm prices.

Not counting the subsidies, NB Power already sells high volumes of what it calls interruptible and surplus power to industry at deep discounts on the understanding it can be cut off and redeployed elsewhere on short notice when needed.

Actual interruptions in service are rare.  Last year there were none, but NB Power sold 837 million kilowatt hours of the discounted power to industry at an average price of 4.9 cents per kwh.   

NB Power does not disclose how much of the $22 million or more in savings went to the six mills, but the price was 35 per cent below NB Power's posted rate for the plants and rivaled firm prices big mills receive anywhere in Canada, including Quebec.

Asked why the subsidy program ignores large amounts of discounted interruptible power used by New Brunswick mills in making comparisons between provinces, Brown said regulations governing the program require a comparison of firm prices only.

"The New Brunswick average rate is based on NB Power's published large industrial rate for firm energy, as required by the Electricity from Renewable Resources regulation," he wrote.

The subsidy program itself was imposed on NB Power by the province in 2012 to aid companies suffering after years of poor markets for forest products following the 2008 financial collapse and recession.  

Providing subsidies has cost NB Power $100 million so far and has continued even as markets for pulp products improved significantly and NB Power's own finances worsened.

Report warned against subsidies
NB Power has never directly criticized the program, but in a matter currently in front the of the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board looking at how NB Power might restructure its rates, including proposals such as seasonal rates that could prompt backlash, an independent consultant hired by the utility suggested rate subsidies to large export oriented manufacturing facilities, like pulp and paper mills, is generally a poor idea.

"We do not recommend offering subsidies to exporters," says the report by Christensen Associates Energy Consulting of Madison, Wis.

"There are two serious economic problems with subsidizing exports. The first is that the benefits may be less than the costs. The second problem is that subsidies tend to last forever, even if the circumstances that initially justified the subsidies have disappeared."

The Christensen report did not directly assess the merits of the current subsidy for pulp and paper mills but it addressed the issue because it said in the design of new rates "one NB Power business customer has raised the possibility that their electricity-intensive business ought to be granted subsidies because of the potential to generate extra benefits for the Province through increases in their exports"

That, said Christensen, rarely benefits the public.

"The direct costs of the subsidies are the subsidies themselves, a part of which ends up in the pockets of out-of-province consumers of the exported goods," said the report.  

"But there are also indirect costs due to the fact that the subsidies are financed through higher electricity prices, which means that other electricity customers have less money to spend on services provided by local businesses, thus putting a drag on the local economy."

The province does not agree.

Asked whether it has any studies or cost-benefit reviews that show the subsidy program is a net benefit to New Brunswick, the department cited none but maintained it is an important initiative, even as elsewhere governments have offered electricity bill credit relief to ratepayers.

"The program was designed to give large industrial businesses the ability to compete on a level energy field," wrote Brown.
 

 

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Annual U.S. coal-fired electricity generation will increase for the first time since 2014

U.S. coal-fired generation 2021 rose as higher natural gas prices, stable coal costs, and a recovering power sector shifted the generation mix; capacity factors rebounded despite low coal stocks and ongoing plant retirements.

 

Key Points

Coal output rose 22% on high gas prices and higher capacity factors; a 5% decline is expected in 2022.

✅ Natural gas delivered cost averaged $4.93/MMBtu, more than double 2020

✅ Coal capacity factor rose to ~51% from 40% in 2020

✅ 2022 coal generation forecast to fall about 5%

 

We expect 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The U.S. electric power sector has been generating more electricity from coal-fired power plants this year as a result of significantly higher natural gas prices and relatively stable coal prices, even as non-fossil sources reached 40% of total generation. This year, 2021, will yield the first year-over-year increase in coal generation in the United States since 2014, highlighted by a January power generation jump earlier in the year.

Coal and natural gas have been the two largest sources of electricity generation in the United States. In many areas of the country, these two fuels compete to supply electricity based on their relative costs and sensitivity to policies and gas prices as well. U.S. natural gas prices have been more volatile than coal prices, so the cost of natural gas often determines the relative share of generation provided by natural gas and coal.

Because natural gas-fired power plants convert fuel to electricity more efficiently than coal-fired plants, record natural gas generation has at times underscored that advantage, and natural gas-fired generation can have an economic advantage even if natural gas prices are slightly higher than coal prices. Between 2015 and 2020, the cost of natural gas delivered to electric generators remained relatively low and stable. This year, however, natural gas prices have been much higher than in recent years. The year-to-date delivered cost of natural gas to U.S. power plants has averaged $4.93 per million British thermal units (Btu), more than double last year’s price.

The overall decline in electricity demand in 2020 and record-low natural gas prices led coal plants to significantly reduce the percentage of time that they generated power. In 2020, the utilization rate (known as the capacity factor) of U.S. coal-fired generators averaged 40%. Before 2010, coal capacity factors routinely averaged 70% or more. This year’s higher natural gas prices have increased the average coal capacity factor to about 51%, which is almost the 2018 average, a year when wind and solar reached 10% nationally.

Although rising natural gas prices have resulted in more U.S. coal-fired generation than last year, this increase in coal generation will most likely not continue as solar and wind expand in the generation mix. The electric power sector has retired about 30% of its generating capacity at coal plants since 2010, and no new coal-fired capacity has come online in the United States since 2013. In addition, coal stocks at U.S. power plants are relatively low, and production at operating coal mines has not been increasing as rapidly as the recent increase in coal demand. For 2022, we forecast that U.S. coal-fired generation will decline about 5% in response to continuing retirements of generating capacity at coal power plants and slightly lower natural gas prices.

 

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