LED milestone passes quietly

By Toronto Star


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It passed by without much mention, but early this summer a major milestone was reached in the realm of LED lighting.

Home Depot quietly began taking online orders for a light-emitting diode LED bulb designed to replace a standard 40-watt incandescent bulb. It consumes only 8.6 watts of power, boasts superior light quality, can be dimmed, and unlike compact fluorescent bulbs doesn't contain any mercury.

The milestone is that Home Depot is selling this bulb for $20 US, half the price of most other retail offerings. Sounds pricey, yes, but keep in mind the bulb is supposed to last more than two decades and will save you at least $200 in energy costs over that time.

Industry watchers say the bulb, made for Home Depot by Lighting Sciences Group, will put pressure on other bulb manufacturers, including General Electric, Philips and Osram Sylvania, to speed up their own production plans and push costs down.

A number of manufacturers are expected to come out with 60-watt equivalent LED bulbs before year's end. It will be interesting to see what price points they hit.

"We're in the midst of the great lighting transformation, with solid-state LEDs on the cusp of transforming the lighting industry," Eric Wesoff, a senior analyst at GTM Research, declared. "The Edison bulb will soon be a relic and CFLs an interim step."

If you ask me, it can't come soon enough. I use compact fluorescent lamps CFLs throughout my home, and like most people are happy that the price of these energy-efficient bulbs have come down so dramatically. Too often, however, they have let me down.

The mercury issue bugs me, but with proper disposal I can live with that. Even the light quality of CFLs has improved and won me over. My problem is that they fail prematurely, despite claims of long life.

This happened most recently while sitting in my living room. I have four recessed lighting fixtures in this room that can be dimmed, and one of them contains a CFL bulb that was designed for the purpose.

I moved into this house only three years ago, but just recently the CFL sizzled, popped and died. My plan was to replace the three remaining incandescent bulbs with a CFL when they burned out. Unfortunately, the CFL blew first. That's not how it's supposed to happen.

Still, even at $20 a bulb I'm not sure I'd opt for the LED option just yet. Past studies indicate that $10 is the threshold to fall below before most consumers start biting.

CFLs had to make the same journey. The average cost of a standard CFL hit about $19 back in 1996, fell to $11 in 1999 and below $6 by 2003, according to a four-year-old report by U.S.-based Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Today, they're about $1.50 each.

Will it take seven years to get to a $6 LED bulb, and 14 years to get to $1.50? Given market demand for energy-efficient products and government attention to energy efficiency and conservation, I'm convinced LEDs face a much shorter path.

In 1996, for example, retailers such as Wal-Mart and Home Depot weren't using their purchasing power to accelerate the introduction and adoption of green products and put pressure on rivals to do the same. Today, exerting such influence is creating strategic benefits in the retail market.

As we wait for more affordable consumer LED products, it's encouraging to see many niche markets taking off.

One example is streetlights, most of which are based on high-pressure sodium HPS fixtures that give off a yellowish, gloomy light and contain mercury. These HPS lights need to be replaced every few years for between $100 and $250 per fixture.

LED lights don't have these maintenance costs – once installed they can be left alone for 20 years or so. They give off a better quality light, and they consume less electricity. Energy savings can range from 50 to 80 per cent, and that's excluding the savings on maintenance.

Halifax-based LED Roadway Lighting, which can churn out up to 5,000 of its LED streetlight fixtures each week, says there are 4.3 million streetlights in Canada. Assuming all were HPS lights, the company estimates total costs to municipalities and provinces would be nearly $16 billion over 20 years, about $12 billion of that related to electricity and $3.27 billion to maintenance.

President and co-founder Charles Cartmill says total cost would be reduced to $6.73 billion if all HPS lights were switched to his company's LED streetlight fixtures. His fixtures would cost nearly four times as much, but electricity costs would be 60 per cent lower and maintenance would be a staggering 99 per cent lower.

"Business is taking off," says Cartmill.

There's little wonder why.

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Hurricane Michael by the numbers: 32 dead, 1.6 million homes, businesses without power

Hurricane Michael Statistics track catastrophic wind speed, storm surge, rainfall totals, power outages, evacuations, and fatalities across Florida and the Southeast, detailing Category 4 intensity, Saffir-Simpson scale impacts, and emergency response resources.

 

Key Points

Hurricane Michael statistics detail wind speed, storm surge, rainfall, outages, and deaths from Category 4 landfall.

✅ 155 mph landfall winds; 14 ft storm surge; 12 in rainfall max

✅ 1.6M without power; 30,000 restoring crews; 6 states emergency

✅ 325k ordered evacuations; 32 deaths; FEMA and Guard deployed

 

Hurricane Michael, a historic Category 4 storm, struck the Florida Panhandle early Wednesday afternoon, unleashing heavy rain, high winds and a devastating storm surge.

 

Here is a look at the dangerous storm by the numbers:

155 mph: Wind speed -- nearly the highest possible for a Category 4 hurricane -- with which Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach and Panama City. A hurricane with 157 mph or higher is a Category 5, the strongest on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

129 mph: Peak wind gust reported Wednesday at Tyndall Air Force Base, which is about 12 miles southeast of Panama City, Florida.

32: Number of storm-related deaths attributed to Michael thus far, including an 11-year-old girl who local officials say was killed when part of a metal carport crashed into her family's mobile home in Lake Seminole, Georgia, and a 38-year-old man who was killed when a tree fell onto his moving car in Statesville, North Carolina.

 

Waves take over a house as Hurricane Michael comes ashore in Alligator Point, Fla., Oct. 10, 2018.

14 feet: Maximum height forecast for the storm surge when Michael's strong winds pushed the ocean water onto land. A storm surge just over 9 feet was reported Wednesday in Apalachicola, Florida.

12 inches: Isolated maximum amount of rain that Michael was expected to dump across the Florida Panhandle and the state's Big Bend region, as well as in southeast Alabama and parts of southwest and central Georgia.

9 inches: Maximum amount of rain that Michael could bring to isolated areas from Virginia to North Carolina.

1.6 million: Number of homes and businesses without power in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as of Friday morning, a reminder that extended outages can persist after major disasters.

30,000: Number of workers mobilized from across the country to help restore power, underscoring the risks of field repairs such as line crew injuries during recovery.

6: Number of states that had emergency declarations in anticipation of Michael: Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia.

325,000: Estimated number of people in the storm's path who were told to evacuate by local authorities.

6,000: Approximate number of people who stayed in the roughly 80 shelters across Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday night, while those sheltering at home were urged to avoid overheated power strips that can spark fires.

3,000: Number of personnel the Federal Emergency Management Agency deployed ahead of landfall, while utilities prepared on-site staffing plans to maintain operations during widespread disruptions.

35: Number of counties in Florida, of the state's 67, where Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency prior to landfall, and grid reliability warnings often underscore systemic risks during national emergencies.

3,500: Number of Florida National Guard troops activated for pre-landfall coordination and planning, with an emphasis on high water and search-and-rescue operations.

600: Number of Florida state troopers assigned to the Panhandle and Big Bend region to assist with response and recovery efforts, including public reminders about downed line safety in affected communities.

500: Number of disaster relief workers that the American Red Cross was sending to affected areas in the Sunshine State.

200: Approximate number of patients being evacuated from at least two hospitals in Florida due to damage from the hurricane, highlighting how critical facilities depend on staff who have raised workforce safety concerns during other crises. Bay Medical Center Sacred Heart in Panama City said in a statement Thursday that its facility was damaged during the storm and thus is transferring more than 200 patients, including 39 who are critically ill, to regional hospitals. Gulf Coast Regional Medical Center, also in Panama City, announced in a statement Thursday that it's evacuating its roughly approximately patients, starting with the most critically ill, "because of the infrastructure challenges in our community."

 

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The Impact of AI on Corporate Electricity Bills

AI Energy Consumption strains corporate electricity bills as data centers and HPC workloads run nonstop, driving carbon emissions. Efficiency upgrades, renewable energy, and algorithm optimization help control costs and enhance sustainability across industries.

 

Key Points

AI Energy Consumption is the power used by AI compute and data centers, impacting costs and sustainability.

✅ Optimize cooling, hardware, and workloads to cut kWh per inference

✅ Integrate on-site solar, wind, or PPAs to offset data center power

✅ Tune models and algorithms to reduce compute and latency

 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing industries with its promise of increased efficiency and productivity. However, as businesses integrate AI technologies into their operations, there's a significant and often overlooked impact: the strain on corporate electricity bills.

AI's Growing Energy Demand

The adoption of AI entails the deployment of high-performance computing systems, data centers, and sophisticated algorithms that require substantial energy consumption. These systems operate around the clock, processing massive amounts of data and performing complex computations, and, much like the impact on utilities seen with major EV rollouts, contributing to a notable increase in electricity usage for businesses.

Industries Affected

Various sectors, including finance, healthcare, manufacturing, and technology, rely on AI-driven applications for tasks ranging from data analysis and predictive modeling to customer service automation and supply chain optimization, while manufacturing is influenced by ongoing electric motor market growth that increases electrified processes.

Cost Implications

The rise in electricity consumption due to AI deployments translates into higher operational costs for businesses. Corporate entities must budget accordingly for increased electricity bills, which can impact profit margins and financial planning, especially in regions experiencing electricity price volatility in Europe amid market reforms. Managing these costs effectively becomes crucial to maintaining competitiveness and sustainability in the marketplace.

Sustainability Challenges

The environmental impact of heightened electricity consumption cannot be overlooked. Increased energy demand from AI technologies contributes to carbon emissions and environmental footprints, alongside rising e-mobility demand forecasts that pressure grids, posing challenges for businesses striving to meet sustainability goals and regulatory requirements.

Mitigation Strategies

To address the escalating electricity bills associated with AI, businesses are exploring various mitigation strategies:

  1. Energy Efficiency Measures: Implementing energy-efficient practices, such as optimizing data center cooling systems, upgrading to energy-efficient hardware, and adopting smart energy management solutions, can help reduce electricity consumption.

  2. Renewable Energy Integration: Investing in renewable energy sources like solar or wind power and energy storage solutions to enhance flexibility can offset electricity costs and align with corporate sustainability initiatives.

  3. Algorithm Optimization: Fine-tuning AI algorithms to improve computational efficiency and reduce processing times can lower energy demands without compromising performance.

  4. Cost-Benefit Analysis: Conducting thorough cost-benefit analyses of AI deployments to assess energy consumption against operational benefits and potential rate impacts, informed by cases where EV adoption can benefit customers in broader electricity markets, helps businesses make informed decisions and prioritize energy-saving initiatives.

Future Outlook

As AI continues to evolve and permeate more aspects of business operations, the demand for electricity will likely intensify and may coincide with broader EV demand projections that increase grid loads. Balancing the benefits of AI-driven innovation with the challenges of increased energy consumption requires proactive energy management strategies and investments in sustainable technologies.

Conclusion

The integration of AI technologies presents significant opportunities for businesses to enhance productivity and competitiveness. However, the corresponding surge in electricity bills underscores the importance of proactive energy management and sustainability practices. By adopting energy-efficient measures, leveraging renewable energy sources, and optimizing AI deployments, businesses can mitigate cost impacts, reduce environmental footprints, and foster long-term operational resilience in an increasingly AI-driven economy.

 

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Electricity exports to New York from Quebec will happen as early as 2025: Hydro-Quebec

Hertel-New York Interconnection delivers Hydro-Quebec renewable energy via a cross-border transmission line to New York City by 2025, supplying 1,250 MW through underground and underwater routes under a 25-year contract.

 

Key Points

A cross-border line delivering 1,250 MW of Hydro-Quebec hydropower to New York City via underground routes.

✅ 1,250 MW clean power to NYC by 2025

✅ 56.1 km underground, 1.6 km underwater in Quebec

✅ 25-year contract; Mohawk partnership revenue

 

Hydro-Quebec announced Thursday it has chosen the route for the Hertel-New York interconnection line, which will begin construction in the spring of 2023 in Quebec.

The project will deliver 1,250 megawatts of Quebec hydroelectricity to New York City starting in 2025, even as a recent electricity shortage report warns about rising demand at home.

It's a 25-year contract for Hydro-Quebec, the largest export contract for the province-owned company, and comes as hydrogen production investments gain traction in Eastern Canada.

The Crown corporation has not disclosed potential revenues from the project, but Premier François Legault mentioned on social media last September that a deal in principle worth more than $20 billion over 25 years was in the works.

The route includes a 56.1-kilometre underground and a 1.6-kilometre underwater section, similar to the Lake Erie Connector project planned under Lake Erie.

Eight municipalities in the Montérégie region will be affected: La Prairie, Saint-Philippe, Saint-Jacques-le-Mineur, Saint-Édouard, Saint-Patrice-de-Sherrington, Saint-Cyprien-de-Napierville, Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle and Lacolle.

Across the country, new renewables such as wind projects in Yukon are receiving federal support, reflecting broader grid decarbonization.

The last part of the route will run along Fairbanks Creek to the Richelieu River, where it will connect with the American network.

Further south, there will be a 545-kilometre link between the Canada-U.S. border and New York City, while a separate Maine transmission approval advances a New England pathway for Quebec power.

Hydro-Quebec is holding two consultations on the project, on Dec. 8 in Lacolle and Dec. 9 in Saint-Jacques-le-Mineur.

Elsewhere in Atlantic Canada, EV-to-grid integration pilots are underway to test how vehicles can support the power system.

Once the route is in service, the Quebec line will be subject to a partnership between Hydro-Quebec and the Mohawk Council of Kahnawake, which will benefit from economic remunerations for 40 years.

To enhance reliability, grid-scale battery storage projects are also expanding in Ontario.

 

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Trump's Proposal on Ukraine's Nuclear Plants Sparks Controversy

Ukraine Nuclear Plant Ownership Proposal outlines U.S. management of Ukrainian reactors amid the Russia-Ukraine war, citing nuclear safety, energy security, and IAEA oversight; Kyiv rejects ownership transfer, especially regarding Zaporizhzhia under Russian control.

 

Key Points

U.S. control of Ukraine's nuclear plants for safety; Kyiv rejects transfer, citing sovereignty risks at Zaporizhzhia.

✅ U.S. proposal to manage Ukraine's reactors amid war

✅ Kyiv refuses ownership transfer; open to investment

✅ Zaporizhzhia under Russian control raises safety risks

 

In the midst of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed a controversial idea: Ukraine should give its nuclear power plants to the United States for safekeeping and management. This suggestion came during a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wherein Trump expressed the belief that American ownership of these nuclear plants could offer them the best protection amid the ongoing war. But Kyiv, while open to foreign support, has firmly rejected the idea of transferring ownership, especially as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remains under Russian occupation.

Ukraine’s nuclear energy infrastructure has always been a vital component of its power generation. Before the war, the country’s four nuclear plants supplied nearly half of its electricity. As Russia's military forces target Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including power plants and coal mines, international watchdogs like the IAEA have warned of nuclear risks as these nuclear facilities have become crucial to maintaining the nation’s energy stability. The Zaporizhzhia plant, in particular, has attracted international concern due to its size and the ongoing threat of a potential nuclear disaster.

Trump’s Proposal and Ukraine’s Response

Trump’s proposal of U.S. ownership came as a response to the ongoing threats posed by Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia plant. Trump argued that the U.S., with its expertise in running nuclear power plants, could safeguard these facilities from further damage and potential nuclear accidents. However, Zelenskyy quickly clarified that the discussion was only focused on the Zaporizhzhia plant, which is currently under Russian control. The Ukrainian president emphasized that Kyiv would not entertain the idea of permanently transferring ownership of its nuclear plants, even though they would welcome investment in their restoration and modernization, particularly after the war.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has been a focal point of geopolitical tensions since Russia's occupation in 2022. Despite being in "cold shutdown" to prevent further risk of explosions, the facility remains a major concern due to its potential to cause a nuclear disaster. Ukrainian officials, along with international observers, have raised alarm about the safety risks posed by the plant, including mines at Zaporizhzhia reported by UN watchdogs, which is situated in a war zone and under the control of Russian forces who are reportedly neglecting proper safety protocols.

The Fear of a Nuclear Provocation

Ukrainians have expressed concerns that Trump’s proposal could embolden Russia to escalate tensions further, even as a potential agreement on power-plant attacks has been discussed by some parties. Some fear that any attempt to reclaim the plant by Ukraine could trigger a Russian provocation, including a deliberate attack on the plant, which would have catastrophic consequences for both Ukraine and the broader region. The analogy is drawn with the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, which Ukraine accuses Russia of sabotaging, an act that severely disrupted water supplies to the Zaporizhzhia plant. Ukrainian military officials, including Ihor Romanenko, a former deputy head of Ukraine’s armed forces, warned that Trump’s suggestion might be an exploitation of Ukraine’s vulnerable position in the ongoing war.

Despite these fears, there are some voices within Ukraine, including former employees of the Zaporizhzhia plant, who believe that a deliberate attack by Russian forces is unlikely. They argue that the Russian military needs the plant in functioning condition for future negotiations, with Russia building new power lines to reactivate the site as part of that calculus, and any damage could reduce its value in such exchanges. However, the possibility of Russian negligence or mismanagement remains a significant risk.

The Strategic Role of Ukraine's Nuclear Plants

Ukraine's nuclear plants were a cornerstone of the country’s energy sector long before the conflict began. In recent years, as Ukraine lost access to coal resources in the Donbas region due to Russian occupation, nuclear power became even more vital, alongside a growing focus on wind power to improve resilience. The country’s reliance on these plants grew as Russia launched a sustained campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including attacks on nuclear power stations.

The Zaporizhzhia plant, in particular, holds strategic importance not only due to its size but also because of its location in southeastern Ukraine, an area that has been at the heart of the conflict. Despite being in Russian hands, the plant’s reactors have been safely shut down, reducing the immediate risk of a nuclear explosion. However, the plant’s future remains uncertain, as Russia’s long-term control over it could disrupt Ukraine’s energy security for years to come.

Wider Concerns About Aging Nuclear Infrastructure

Beyond the geopolitical tensions, there are broader concerns about the aging infrastructure of Ukraine's nuclear power plants. International watchdogs, including the environmentalist group Bankwatch, have criticized these facilities as “zombie reactors” due to their outdated designs and safety risks. Experts have called for Ukraine to decommission some of these reactors, fearing that they are increasingly unsafe, especially in the context of a war.

However, Ukrainian officials, including Petro Kotin, head of Energoatom (Ukraine's state-owned nuclear energy company), argue that these reactors are still functional and critical to Ukraine's energy needs. The ongoing conflict, however, complicates efforts to modernize and secure these facilities, which are increasingly vulnerable to both physical damage and potential nuclear hazards.

The Global Implications

Trump's suggestion to take control of Ukraine's nuclear power plants has raised significant concerns on the international stage. Some fear that such a move could set a dangerous precedent for nuclear security and sovereignty. Others see it as an opportunistic proposal that exploits Ukraine's wartime vulnerability.

While the future of Ukraine's nuclear plants remains uncertain, one thing is clear: these facilities are now at the center of a geopolitical struggle that could have far-reaching consequences for the energy security of Europe and the world. The safety of these plants and their role in Ukraine's energy future will remain a critical issue as the war continues and as Ukraine navigates its relations with both the U.S. and Russia, with the grid even having resumed electricity exports at times.

 

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Current Model For Storing Nuclear Waste Is Incomplete

Nuclear Waste Corrosion accelerates as stainless steel, glass, and ceramics interact in aqueous conditions, driving localized corrosion in repositories like Yucca Mountain, according to Nature Materials research on high-level radioactive waste storage.

 

Key Points

Degradation of waste forms and canisters from water-driven chemistry, causing accelerated, localized corrosion in storage.

✅ Stainless steel-glass contact triggers severe localized attack

✅ Ceramics and steel co-corrosion observed under aqueous conditions

✅ Yucca Mountain-like chemistry accelerates waste form degradation

 

The materials the United States and other countries plan to use to store high-level nuclear waste, even as utilities expand carbon-free electricity portfolios, will likely degrade faster than anyone previously knew because of the way those materials interact, new research shows.

The findings, published today in the journal Nature Materials (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41563-019-0579-x), show that corrosion of nuclear waste storage materials accelerates because of changes in the chemistry of the nuclear waste solution, and because of the way the materials interact with one another.

"This indicates that the current models may not be sufficient to keep this waste safely stored," said Xiaolei Guo, lead author of the study and deputy director of Ohio State's Center for Performance and Design of Nuclear Waste Forms and Containers, part of the university's College of Engineering. "And it shows that we need to develop a new model for storing nuclear waste."

Beyond waste storage, options like carbon capture technologies are being explored to reduce atmospheric CO2 alongside nuclear energy.

The team's research focused on storage materials for high-level nuclear waste -- primarily defense waste, the legacy of past nuclear arms production. The waste is highly radioactive. While some types of the waste have half-lives of about 30 years, others -- for example, plutonium -- have a half-life that can be tens of thousands of years. The half-life of a radioactive element is the time needed for half of the material to decay.

The United States currently has no disposal site for that waste; according to the U.S. General Accountability Office, it is typically stored near the nuclear power plants where it is produced. A permanent site has been proposed for Yucca Mountain in Nevada, though plans have stalled. Countries around the world have debated the best way to deal with nuclear waste; only one, Finland, has started construction on a long-term repository for high-level nuclear waste.

But the long-term plan for high-level defense waste disposal and storage around the globe is largely the same, even as the U.S. works to sustain nuclear power for decarbonization efforts. It involves mixing the nuclear waste with other materials to form glass or ceramics, and then encasing those pieces of glass or ceramics -- now radioactive -- inside metallic canisters. The canisters then would be buried deep underground in a repository to isolate it.

At the generation level, regulators are advancing EPA power plant rules on carbon capture to curb emissions while nuclear waste strategies evolve.

In this study, the researchers found that when exposed to an aqueous environment, glass and ceramics interact with stainless steel to accelerate corrosion, especially of the glass and ceramic materials holding nuclear waste.

In parallel, the electrical grid's reliance on SF6 insulating gas has raised warming concerns across Europe.

The study qualitatively measured the difference between accelerated corrosion and natural corrosion of the storage materials. Guo called it "severe."

"In the real-life scenario, the glass or ceramic waste forms would be in close contact with stainless steel canisters. Under specific conditions, the corrosion of stainless steel will go crazy," he said. "It creates a super-aggressive environment that can corrode surrounding materials."

To analyze corrosion, the research team pressed glass or ceramic "waste forms" -- the shapes into which nuclear waste is encapsulated -- against stainless steel and immersed them in solutions for up to 30 days, under conditions that simulate those under Yucca Mountain, the proposed nuclear waste repository.

Those experiments showed that when glass and stainless steel were pressed against one another, stainless steel corrosion was "severe" and "localized," according to the study. The researchers also noted cracks and enhanced corrosion on the parts of the glass that had been in contact with stainless steel.

Part of the problem lies in the Periodic Table. Stainless steel is made primarily of iron mixed with other elements, including nickel and chromium. Iron has a chemical affinity for silicon, which is a key element of glass.

The experiments also showed that when ceramics -- another potential holder for nuclear waste -- were pressed against stainless steel under conditions that mimicked those beneath Yucca Mountain, both the ceramics and stainless steel corroded in a "severe localized" way.

Other Ohio State researchers involved in this study include Gopal Viswanathan, Tianshu Li and Gerald Frankel.

This work was funded in part by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science.

Meanwhile, U.S. monitoring shows potent greenhouse gas declines confirming the impact of control efforts across the energy sector.

 

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Emissions rise 2% in Australia amid increased pollution from electricity and transport

Australia's greenhouse gas emissions rose in Q2 as electricity and transport pollution increased, despite renewable energy growth. Net zero targets, carbon dioxide equivalent metrics, and land use changes underscore mixed trends in decarbonisation.

 

Key Points

About 499-500 Mt CO2-e annually, with a 2% quarterly rise led by electricity and transport.

✅ Q2 emissions rose to 127 Mt from 124.4 Mt seasonally adjusted

✅ Electricity sector up to 41.6 Mt; transport added nearly 1 Mt

✅ Land use remains a net sink; renewables expanded capacity

 

Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions rose in the June quarter by about 2% as pollution from the electricity sector and transport increased.

Figures released on Tuesday by the Morrison government showed that on a year to year basis, emissions for the 12 months to last June totalled 498.9m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. That tally was down 2.1%, or 10.8m tonnes compared with the same period a year earlier.

However, on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, emissions increased to 127m tonnes, or just over 2%, from the 124.4m tonnes reported in the March quarter. For the year to March, emissions totalled 494.2m tonnes, underscoring the pickup in pollution in the more recent quarter even as global coal power declines worldwide.

A stable pollution rate, if not a rising one, is also implied by the government’s release of preliminary figures for the September quarter. They point to 125m tonnes of emissions in trend terms for the July-September months, bringing the year to September total to about 500m tonnes, the latest report said.

The government has made much of Australia “meeting and beating” climate targets. However, the latest statistics show mostly emissions are not in decline despite its pledge ahead of the Glasgow climate summit that the country would hit net zero by 2050, and AEMO says supply can remain uninterrupted as coal phases out over the next three decades.

“Nothing’s happening except for the electricity sector,” said Hugh Saddler, an honorary associate professor at the Australian National University. Once Covid curbs on the economy eased, such as during the current quarter, emission sources such as from transport will show a rise, he predicted.

Falling costs for new wind and solar farms, with the IEA naming solar the cheapest in history worldwide, are pushing coal and gas out of electricity generation, as well as pushing down power prices. In seasonally adjusted terms, though, emissions for that sector rose from 39.7m tonnes the March quarter to 41.6m in the June one.

Most other sectors were steady, with pollution from transport adding almost 1m tonnes in the June quarter.

On an annual basis, a 500m tonnes tally is the lowest since records began in the 1990s, and IEA reported global emissions flatlined in 2019 for context. That lower trajectory, though, is lower due much to the land sector remaining a net sink even as some experts raise questions about the true trends when it comes to land clearing.

According to the government, this sector – known as land use, land-use change and forestry – amounted to a net reduction of emissions of 24.4m tonnes, or almost negative 5% of the national total, in the year to June.

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“The magnitude of this net sink has decreased by 0.6% (0.2 Mt CO2-e) on the previous 12 months due to an increase in emissions from agricultural soils, partially offset by a continuing decline in land clearing emissions,” the latest report said.

For its part, the government also touted the increase of renewable energy, as seen in Canada's electricity progress too, as central to driving emissions lower.

“Since 2017, Australia’s consumption of renewable energy has grown at a compound annual rate of 4.6%, with more than $40bn invested in Australia’s renewable energy sector,” Angus Taylor, the federal energy minister said, while UK net zero policy changes show a different approach. “Last year, Australia deployed new solar and wind at eight times the global per capita average.”

ANU’s Saddler said the main driver had been the 2020 Renewable Energy Target that the Coalition government had cut, and had anyway been implemented “a very considerable time ago”.

Tim Baxter, the Climate Council’s senior researcher, said “the time for leaning on the achievements of others is long since past”.

“We need a federal government willing to step up on emissions reductions and take charge with real policy, not wishlists,” he said, referring to the government’s net zero plan to rely on technologies to cut pollution in pursuit of a sustainable electric planet in practice, some of which don’t exist now.

 

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