Increased solar activity will play havoc with grid

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Our Sun is muscling up again. According to NASA, it is beginning another 11-year cycle of activity.

Considering that the Sun is to blame for some unfavorable climate changes on the Earth, the coming decade could spell more trouble for our planet.

The first measuring instruments made their appearance 440 years ago. They showed that our nearest star treats the Earth to more than just solar eclipses. Sunspots, solar flares, faculae and other phenomena affect everything on the Earth: from atmospheric events to human behavior. These phenomena are known collectively as solar activity.

This activity, expressing itself through bursts of solar radiation, magnetic storms or fiery flares, can vary in intensity, from very low to very strong. It is the storms that pose the greatest danger to civilization.

On August 28, 1859, polar lights glowed and shimmered all over the American continent as darkness fell. Many people thought their city was aflame. The instruments used to record this magnetic fluctuation across the world went off their scales. Telegraph systems malfunctioned, hit by a massive surge in voltage.

This was an actual solar storm. Its results for humankind were small, because civilization had not yet entered a hi-tech phase of development. Had something similar happen in our nuclear space age, destruction would have been catastrophic.

Meanwhile, according to scientific data, storms of such size occur relatively seldom: once in five centuries. But events with half the intensity happen every 50 years. The last one took place on November 13, 1960 and disturbed the Earth's geomagnetic fields, upsetting the operation of radio stations.

Now our dependence on radio electronic devices is so immense that increased solar activity could disable life-support systems all over the world, and not only on the surface.

America has long been sounding an alarm, because their continent is so close to the northern magnetic pole and is the most vulnerable to solar activity.

A study by the MetaTech Corporation revealed that an impact similar to that of 1859 would incapacitate the entire electricity grid in North America. Even the relatively weak magnetic storm of 1989, provoked by solar activity, caused an accident at a Canadian hydro-electric power plant that left 6 million people in the U.S. and Canada without electric power for nine hours.

According to a special report prepared by MetaTech for Congress in 2003, salvage and rescue work to restore power in areas with developed infrastructure could have been launched, according to estimates, only within several weeks or a month.

Poor space weather makes all orbital systems malfunction. According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, satellites damaged by the Sun cost $100 million per year to repair. Satellite insurance companies paid out $2 billion between 1996 and 2005 to compensate for damage to and loss of spacecraft because of solar effects.

A heavy solar storm can cause disruption to space-based navigation systems. Mistakes in coordinate measurements can be as great as 50 m and more, making a navigation satellite unfit for its mission. A serious loss of accuracy in the GPS Navstar system was recorded during a solar storm on October 23, 2003.

The mechanism of solar storms is unlikely to be fully understood anytime soon. On the other hand, space weather is easy to forecast with available equipment. Many years ago, NASA proposed orbiting special probes to monitor space weather. Modern space technology can produce low-priced standardized devices for warning of pending space weather anomalies.

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N.S. approves new attempt to harness Bay of Fundy's powerful tides

Bay of Fundy Tidal Energy advances as Nova Scotia permits Jupiter Hydro to test floating barge platforms with helical turbines in Minas Passage, supporting renewable power, grid-ready pilots, and green jobs in rural communities.

 

Key Points

A Nova Scotia tidal energy project using helical turbines to generate clean power and create local jobs.

✅ Permits enable 1-2 MW prototypes near Minas Passage

✅ Floating barge platforms with patented helical turbines

✅ PPA at $0.50/kWh with Nova Scotia Power

 

An Alberta-based company has been granted permission to try to harness electricity from the powerful tides of the Bay of Fundy.

Nova Scotia has issued two renewable energy permits to Jupiter Hydro.

Backers have long touted the massive energy potential of Fundy's tides -- they are among the world's most powerful -- but large-scale commercial efforts to harness them have borne little fruit so far, even as a Scottish tidal project recently generated enough power to supply nearly 4,000 homes elsewhere.

The Jupiter application says it will use three "floating barge type platforms" carrying its patented technology. The company says it uses helical turbines mounted as if they were outboard motors.

"Having another company test their technology in the Bay of Fundy shows that this early-stage industry continues to grow and create green jobs in our rural communities," Energy and Mines Minister Derek Mombourquette said in a statement.

The first permit allows the company to test a one-megawatt prototype that is not connected to the electricity grid.

The second -- a five-year permit for up to two megawatts -- is renewable if the company meets performance standards, environmental requirements and community engagement conditions.

Mombourquette also authorized a power purchase agreement that allows the company to sell the electricity it generates to the Nova Scotia grid through Nova Scotia Power for 50 cents per kilowatt hour.

On its web site, Jupiter says it believes its approach "will prove to be the most cost effective marine energy conversion technology in the world," even as other regional utilities consider initiatives like NB Power's Belledune concept for turning seawater into electricity.

The one megawatt unit would have screws which are about 5.5 metres in diameter.

The project is required to obtain all other necessary approvals, permits and authorizations.

It will be located near the Fundy Ocean Research Center for Energy in the Minas Passage and will use existing electricity grid connections.

A study commissioned by the Offshore Energy Research Association of Nova Scotia says by 2040, the tidal energy industry could contribute up to $1.7 billion to Nova Scotia's gross domestic product and create up to 22,000 full-time jobs, a transition that some argue should be planned by an independent body to ensure reliability.

Last month, Nova Scotia Power said it now generates 30 per cent of its power from renewables, as the province moves to increase wind and solar projects after abandoning the Atlantic Loop.

The utility says 18 per cent came from wind turbines, nine per cent from hydroelectric and tidal turbines and three per cent by burning biomass across its fleet.

However, over half of the province's electrical generation still comes from the burning of coal or petroleum coke, even as environmental advocates push to reduce biomass use in the mix. Another 13 per cent come from burning natural gas and five per cent from imports.

 

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Massive power line will send Canadian hydropower to New York

Twin States Clean Energy Link connects New England to Hydro-Quebec via a 1,200 MW transmission line, DOE-backed capacity, underground segments, existing corridors, boosting renewable energy reliability across Vermont and New Hampshire with cross-border grid flexibility.

 

Key Points

DOE-backed 1,200 MW line linking Hydro-Quebec to New England, adding clean capacity with underground routes.

✅ 1,200 MW cross-border capacity for the New England grid

✅ Uses existing corridors; underground in VT and northern NH

✅ DOE capacity contract lowers risk and spurs investment

 

A proposal to build a new transmission line to connect New England with Canadian hydropower is one step closer to reality.

The U.S. Department of Energy announced Monday that it has selected the Twin States Clean Energy Link as one of three transmission projects that will be part of its $1.3 billion cross-border transmission initiative to add capacity to the grid.

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Twin States is a proposal from National Grid, a utility company that serves Massachusetts, New York, and Rhode Island, and also owns transmission in England and Wales as the region advances projects like the Scotland-to-England subsea link that expand renewable flows, and the non-profit Citizens Energy Corporation.

The transmission line would connect New England with power from Hydro-Quebec, moving into the United States from Canada in Northern Vermont and crossing into New Hampshire near Dalton. It would run through parts of Grafton, Merrimack, and Hillsborough counties, routing through a substation in Dunbarton and ending at a proposed new substation in Londonderry. (Here's a map of the Twin States proposal.)

The federal funding will allow the U.S. Department of Energy to purchase capacity on the planned transmission line, which officials say reduces the risk for other investors and can help encourage others to purchase capacity.

The project has gotten support from local officials in Vermont and New Hampshire, but there are still hurdles to cross. The contract negotiation process is beginning, National Grid said, and the proposal still needs approvals from regulators before construction could begin.

First Nations communities in Canada have opposed transmission lines connecting Hydro-Quebec with New England in the past, and the company has faced scrutiny from environmental groups.

What would Twin States look like?
Transmission projects, like the failed Northern Pass proposal, have been controversial in New England, though the Great Northern Transmission Line progressed in Minnesota.

But Reihaneh Irani-Famili, vice president of capital delivery, project management and construction at National Grid, said this one is different because the developers listened to community concerns before planning the project.

“They did not want new corridors of infrastructure, so we made sure that we're using existing right of way,” she said. “They did not want the visual impact and some of the newer corridors of infrastructure, we're making sure we're undergrounding portions of the line.”

In Vermont and northern New Hampshire, the transmission lines would be buried underground along state roads. South of Littleton, they would be located within existing transmission corridors.

The developers say the lines could provide 1,200 megawatts of transmission capacity. The project would have the ability to carry electricity from hydro facilities in Quebec to New England, and would also be able to bring electricity from New England into Quebec, a step toward broader macrogrid connectivity across regions.

“Those hydro dams become giant green batteries for the region, and they hold that water until we need the electrons,” Irani-Famili said. “So if you think about our energy system not as one that sees borders, but one that sees resources, this is connecting the Quebec resources to the New England resources and helping all of us get into that cleaner energy future with a lot less build than we otherwise would have.”

Irani-Famili says the transmission line could help facilitate more clean energy resources like offshore wind coming online. In a report released last week by New Hampshire’s Department of Energy, authors said importing Canadian hydropower could be one of the most cost-effective ways to move away from fossil fuels on the electric grid.

National Grid estimates the project will help save energy customers $8.3 billion in its first 12 years. The developers are constructing a $260 million “community benefits plan” that would take some profits from the transmission line and give that money back to communities that host the transmission lines and environmental justice communities in New England.

 

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Ukraine Prepares for Winter Amid Energy Challenges

Ukraine Winter Energy Resilience focuses on energy security, grid repairs, renewable power, EU support, heating reliability, electricity imports, and conservation measures to stabilize infrastructure and protect households amid conflict and severe cold.

 

Key Points

A strategy to secure heat and power via repairs, renewables, imports, and conservation during wartime winter.

✅ Grid repairs and hardening of power plants and transmission lines

✅ Diversified supply: renewables, electricity imports, fuel reserves

✅ Public conservation to cut peak demand and safeguard essential services

 

As winter approaches, Ukraine is bracing for a challenging season, especially in the energy sector amid global energy instability and price pressures, which has been heavily impacted by the ongoing conflict with Russia. With the weather forecast predicting colder temperatures, the Ukrainian government is ramping up efforts to secure energy supplies and bolster infrastructure, aiming to ensure that citizens have access to heating and electricity during the harsh months ahead.

The Energy Landscape in Ukraine

The conflict has severely disrupted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leading to widespread damage and inefficiencies. Key facilities, including power plants and transmission lines, have been targeted amid energy ceasefire violations reported by both sides, resulting in significant energy shortages. As a response, the government has implemented a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the energy sector, ensuring that the nation can withstand the winter months.

One of the primary strategies has been the repair and reinforcement of energy infrastructure. Officials have prioritized critical facilities that are essential for electricity generation and distribution. Emergency repairs and upgrades are being carried out to restore functionality and improve resilience against potential attacks.

In addition to repairing existing infrastructure, Ukraine is actively seeking to diversify its energy sources. This includes increasing reliance on renewable energy, such as wind and solar, which can be less susceptible to disruption. The shift toward renewables not only enhances energy security and supports moving away from fossil fuels in line with Ukraine's long-term environmental goals.

International Support and Collaboration

Ukraine's challenges have not gone unnoticed on the international stage. Countries and organizations around the world have pledged energy security support to help Ukraine fortify its energy sector. This assistance includes financial aid, technical expertise, and the provision of materials needed for infrastructure repairs.

The European Union, in particular, has been a key ally, providing both immediate and long-term support to Ukraine's energy efforts. The EU's commitment to helping Ukraine transition to a more sustainable energy model, including steps toward ENTSO-E synchronization to bolster grid stability, is reflected in various initiatives aimed at increasing energy efficiency and integrating renewable sources.

Furthermore, international organizations have mobilized resources to assist in the restoration of damaged infrastructure. This collaboration not only enhances Ukraine's energy capabilities but also strengthens ties with global partners, fostering a sense of solidarity amidst the ongoing conflict.

Preparing for Winter Challenges

As temperatures drop, the demand for heating will surge, putting additional pressure on an already strained energy system. To address this, the Ukrainian government is urging citizens to prepare for potential shortages. Officials are promoting energy conservation measures, encouraging households to reduce consumption and use energy more efficiently.

Public awareness campaigns are being launched to educate citizens about the importance of energy saving and the steps they can take to minimize their energy use and prevent outages during peak demand. These initiatives aim to foster a collective sense of responsibility as the nation braces for the winter ahead.

In addition to conservation efforts, the government is exploring alternative energy supplies. This includes negotiating with neighboring countries for electricity imports and enhancing domestic production where feasible. By securing a diverse range of energy sources, Ukraine aims to mitigate the risk of shortages and ensure that essential services remain operational.

The Role of Resilience and Innovation

Despite the challenges, the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their commitment to overcoming adversity shine through. Communities are coming together to support one another, sharing resources and information to help navigate the difficulties of winter.

Innovative solutions are also emerging as part of the response to the energy crisis. Local initiatives aimed at promoting energy efficiency and the use of alternative energy sources are gaining traction. From community-led solar projects to energy-efficient building practices, Ukrainians are finding ways to adapt and thrive even in the face of uncertainty.

Looking Ahead

As Ukraine prepares for the winter months, the focus remains on ensuring energy security and maintaining the functionality of critical infrastructure. While challenges loom, the collective efforts of the government, international partners, and citizens demonstrate a strong commitment to resilience and adaptation.

In conclusion, the upcoming winter presents significant challenges for Ukraine's energy sector, yet the nation's determination to secure its energy future remains unwavering. With ongoing repairs, international support, and community innovation, Ukraine is working diligently to navigate the complexities of this winter, aiming to emerge stronger and more resilient in the face of adversity. The resilience shown today will be crucial as the country continues to confront the ongoing impacts of conflict and seeks to build a sustainable future.

 

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Electricity alert ends after Alberta forced to rely on reserves to run grid

Alberta Power Grid Level 2 Alert signals AESO reserve power usage, load management, supply shortage from generator outages, low wind, and limited imports, urging peak demand conservation to avoid blackouts and preserve grid reliability.

 

Key Points

An AESO status where reserves power the grid and load management is used during supply constraints to prevent blackouts.

✅ Triggered by outages, low wind, and reduced import capacity

✅ Peak hours 4 to 7 pm saw conservation requests

✅ Several hundred MW margin from Level 3 load shedding

 

Alberta's energy grid ran on reserves Wednesday, after multiple factors led to a supply shortage, a scenario explored in U.S. grid COVID response discussions as operators plan for contingencies.

At 3:52 p.m. Wednesday, the Alberta Electric System Operator issued a Level 2 alert, meaning that reserves were being used to supply energy requirements and that load management procedures had been implemented, while operators elsewhere adopted Ontario power staffing lockdown measures during COVID-19 for continuity. The alert ended at 6:06 p.m.

"This is due to unplanned generator outages, low wind and a reduction of import capability," the agency said in a post to social media. "Supply is tight but still meeting demand."

AESO spokesperson Mike Deising said the intertie with Saskatchewan had tripped off, and an issue on the British Columbia side of the border, as seen during BC Hydro storm response events, meant the province couldn't import power. 

"There are no blackouts … this just means we're using our reserve power, and that's a standard procedure we'll deploy," he said. 

AESO had asked that people reduce their energy consumption between 4 and 7 p.m., similar to Cal ISO conservation calls during grid strain, which is typically when peak use occurs. 

Deising said the system was several hundred MWs away from needing to move to an alert Level 3, with utilities such as FortisAlberta precautions in place to support continuity, which is when power is cut off to some customers in order to keep the system operating. Deising said Level 2 alerts are fairly rare and occur every few years. The last Level 3 alert was in 2013. 

According to the supply and demand report on AESO's website, the load on the grid at 5 p.m. was 10,643 MW.

That's down significantly from last week, when a heat wave pushed demand to record highs on the grid, with loads in the 11,700 MW range, contrasting with Ontario demand drop during COVID when many stayed home. 

A heat warning was issued Wednesday for Edmonton and surrounding areas shortly before 4 p.m., with temperatures above 29 C expected over the next three days, with many households seeing residential electricity use up during such periods. 

 

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FERC needs to review capacity market performance, GAO recommends

FERC Capacity Markets face scrutiny as GAO flags inconsistent data on resource adequacy and costs, urging performance goals, risk assessment, and better metrics across PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, and MISO amid cost-recovery proposals.

 

Key Points

FERC capacity markets aim for resource adequacy, but GAO finds weak data and urges goals and performance reviews.

✅ GAO cites inconsistent data on resource adequacy and costs

✅ Calls for performance goals, metrics, and risk assessment

✅ Applies to PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO; MISO market is voluntary

 

Capacity markets may or may not be functioning properly, but FERC can't adequately make that determination, according to the GAO report.

"Available information on the level of resource adequacy ... and related costs in regions with and without capacity markets is not comprehensive or consistent," the report found. "Moreover, consistent data on historical trends in resource adequacy and related costs are not available for regions without capacity markets."

The review concluded that FERC collects some useful information in regions with and without capacity markets, but GAO said it "identified problems with data quality, such as inconsistent data."

GAO included three recommendations, including calling for FERC to take steps to improve the quality of data collected, and regularly assess the overall performance of capacity markets by developing goals for those assessments.

"FERC should develop and document an approach to regularly identify, assess, and respond to risks that capacity markets face," the report also recommended. The commission "has not established performance goals for capacity markets, measured progress against those goals, or used performance information to make changes to capacity markets as needed."

The recommendation comes as the agency is grappling with a controversial proposal to assure cost-recovery for struggling coal and nuclear plants in the power markets. So far, the proposal would only apply to power markets with capacity markets, including PJM Interconnection, the New England ISO, the New York ISO and possibly MISO. However MISO only has a voluntary capacity market, making it unclear how the proposed rule would be applied there. 

 

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Should California Fund Biofuels or Electric Vehicles?

California Biofuels vs EV Subsidies examines tradeoffs in decarbonization, greenhouse gas reductions, clean energy deployment, charging infrastructure, energy security, lifecycle emissions, and transportation sector policy to meet climate goals and accelerate sustainable mobility.

 

Key Points

Policy tradeoffs weighing biofuels and EVs to cut GHGs, boost energy security, and advance clean transportation.

✅ Near-term blending cuts emissions from existing fleets

✅ EVs scale with a cleaner grid and charging buildout

✅ Lifecycle impacts and costs guide optimal subsidy mix

 

California is at the forefront of the transition to a greener economy, driven by its ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change. As part of its strategy, the state is grappling with the question of whether it should subsidize out-of-state biofuels or in-state electric vehicles (EVs) to meet these goals. Both options come with their own sets of benefits and challenges, and the decision carries significant implications for the state’s environmental, economic, and energy landscapes.

The Case for Biofuels

Biofuels have long been promoted as a cleaner alternative to traditional fossil fuels like gasoline and diesel. They are made from organic materials such as agricultural crops, algae, and waste, which means they can potentially reduce carbon emissions in comparison to petroleum-based fuels. In the context of California, biofuels—particularly ethanol and biodiesel—are viewed as a way to decarbonize the transportation sector, which is one of the state’s largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions.

Subsidizing out-of-state biofuels can help California reduce its reliance on imported oil while promoting the development of biofuel industries in other states. This approach may have immediate benefits, as biofuels are widely available and can be blended with conventional fuels to lower carbon emissions right away. It also allows the state to diversify its energy sources, improving energy security by reducing dependency on oil imports.

Moreover, biofuels can be produced in many regions across the United States, including rural areas. By subsidizing out-of-state biofuels, California could foster economic development in these regions, creating jobs and stimulating agricultural innovation. This approach could also support farmers who grow the feedstock for biofuel production, boosting the agricultural economy in the U.S.

However, there are drawbacks. The environmental benefits of biofuels are often debated. Critics argue that the production of biofuels—particularly those made from food crops like corn—can contribute to deforestation, water pollution, and increased food prices. Additionally, biofuels are not a silver bullet in the fight against climate change, as their production and combustion still release greenhouse gases. When considering whether to subsidize biofuels, California must also account for the full lifecycle emissions associated with their production and use.

The Case for Electric Vehicles

In contrast to biofuels, electric vehicles (EVs) offer a more direct pathway to reducing emissions from transportation. EVs are powered by electricity, and when coupled with renewable energy sources like solar or wind power, they can provide a nearly zero-emission solution for personal and commercial transportation. California has already invested heavily in EV infrastructure, including expanding its network of charging stations and exploring how EVs can support grid stability through vehicle-to-grid approaches, and offering incentives for consumers to purchase EVs.

Subsidizing in-state EVs could stimulate job creation and innovation within California's thriving clean-tech industry, with other states such as New Mexico projecting substantial economic gains from transportation electrification, and the state has already become a hub for electric vehicle manufacturers, including Tesla, Rivian, and several battery manufacturers. Supporting the EV industry could further strengthen California’s position as a global leader in green technology, attracting investment and fostering growth in related sectors such as battery manufacturing, renewable energy, and smart grid technology.

Additionally, the environmental benefits of EVs are substantial. As the electric grid becomes cleaner with an increasing share of renewable energy, EVs will become even greener, with lower lifecycle emissions than biofuels. By prioritizing EVs, California could further reduce its carbon footprint while also achieving its long-term climate goals, including reaching carbon neutrality by 2045.

However, there are challenges. EV adoption in California remains a significant undertaking, requiring major investments in infrastructure as they challenge state power grids in the near term, technology, and consumer incentives. The cost of EVs, although decreasing, still remains a barrier for many consumers. Additionally, there are concerns about the environmental impact of lithium mining, which is essential for EV batteries. While renewable energy is expanding, California’s grid is still reliant on fossil fuels to some degree, and in other jurisdictions such as Canada's 2019 electricity mix fossil generation remains significant, meaning that the full emissions benefit of EVs is not realized until the grid is entirely powered by clean energy.

A Balancing Act

The debate between subsidizing out-of-state biofuels and in-state electric vehicles is ultimately a question of how best to allocate California’s resources to meet its climate and economic goals. Biofuels may offer a quicker fix for reducing emissions from existing vehicles, but their long-term benefits are more limited compared to the transformative potential of electric vehicles, even as some analysts warn of policy pitfalls that could complicate the transition.

However, biofuels still have a role to play in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and heavy-duty transportation, where electrification may not be as feasible in the near future. Thus, a mixed strategy that includes both subsidies for EVs and biofuels may be the most effective approach.

Ultimately, California’s decision will likely depend on a combination of factors, including technological advancements, 2021 electricity lessons, and the pace of renewable energy deployment, and the state’s ability to balance short-term needs with long-term environmental goals. The road ahead is not easy, but California's leadership in clean energy will be crucial in shaping the nation’s response to climate change.

 

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