Harnessing ocean power is no longer just a dream for New Zealand

By New Zealand Daily News


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This is a blue planet and it's getting bluer. Seventy percent of the Earth's surface is covered in water. The ice-caps are melting, shorelines are slowly receding, islands are going under.

Suddenly marine power - the new thing on the energy scene - looks mighty appealing.

It takes advantage of the immense (and free) power of the oceans and, because the process is so clean, it might also help stop the rising oceans drowning us all.

That's at least one reason the Government is now so interested. In the draft New Zealand Energy Strategy released recently, marine energy was hailed as "a developing technology of significant potential".

"New Zealand has a vast marine energy resource if it can be tapped," the report said. To back that up, Energy Minister David Cunliffe announced an $8 million contestable funding package for the industry.

Put simply, marine power is technologies to capture the motion of waves and tides, and turn it into electricity.

Already, the technological approaches come in all shapes and sizes. Last year, three 150m-long snake-shaped devices were planted off the northern coast of Portugal.

The long, red pontoons - the first of a planned wave farm for the area - stretch out across the ocean surface like lane markers in a swimming pool.

As waves hit them, they bend at specially designed hinges, transforming the motion into electricity using power-converter modules that run down their sides.

Other wave-power designs include buoy-like machines that catch the ocean swells, as well as structures built into coastal cliff faces that use air pressure from waves to power turbines.

Tidal power is the other half of marine energy and it's simpler to understand.

Typically, one long barrage, or a series of underwater turbines, uses the tide's energy as it moves in and out. It's this sort of project which has so far been most developed in New Zealand. Auckland firm Crest Energy plans to install turbines in Kaipara Harbour, which it says could eventually generate 200 megawatts - or enough power for 250,000 homes - at full capacity.

Plans are also afoot to develop something similar in Cook Strait, where Neptune Power director David Beach believes thousands of small turbines could sit 40m under the water.

The idea of using the ocean to generate electricity emerged in the 1970s when University of Edinburgh engineer Stephen Salter devised a prototype wave-power device known as the nodding duck.

However, with oil prices declining again in the 1980s, development money dried up.

The comeback is on now, though, with Britain leading the charge. A wave farm is close to being launched in Scottish waters, while plans to milk at least three of Britain's largest rivers for their power are under way.

Marine power prototypes have also been launched in seas or rivers off Western Australia, Japan, China and Spain. One British device, dubbed the Snapper, has shown the potential to be 10 times as efficient as existing models.

Governments have been taking notice. A report by Britain's Carbon Trust - set up by the government there to reduce greenhouse gas emissions - estimated last year that marine energy might eventually power 20% of Britain.

That's about 12,000 megawatts a day, or three times what the largest British power plant now produces.

Meanwhile, the World Energy Council has estimated the global export market for such technology could eventually be worth more than $1.5 trillion (New Zealand dollars).

In the United States, congressional committees have started taking submissions from marine energy players, while state- sponsored projects are sprouting along the seaboard, especially in California and the northeast.

Dr John Huckerby, one of the drivers of the local movement, and the head of Awatea - the Aotearoa Wave and Tidal Energy Association, welcomes the $8 million Government injection.

He says blue energy could contribute to our power supply by 2010, and eventually provide 20% of our power.

The Government's recent cash investment will encourage private capital, adding that with 14 local projects already in the pipeline, marine energy is perfect for New Zealand's creative approach to technology, he says.

There are hurdles to marine power. One barrier that the Economic Development Ministry and Dr Huckerby identify is the Resource Management Act.

"The Government needs to give consideration to whether the Act is the best mechanism for the allocation of space and resources for marine energy projects."

The next step, Dr Huckerby says, is for the Government to come up with incentive packages.

Feed-in tariffs are one option and are already being used in Europe, particularly for solar power, with electricity companies paying for electricity that is fed back into the public grid.

The other hurdle is cost. No matter what the incentive, it is clear that marine power will be expensive for the first few years.

The London Economist puts the average cost of British marine power at somewhere between two and five times the cost of power from natural gas.

Dr Huckerby says it's about twice as expensive as wind power at the moment, although many industry experts think they may even up in the future.

Another challenge for innovators is designing machines that are hardy enough to withstand what the sea can throw at them, without having to be prohibitively huge or expensive.

"To be frank, no devices have been put in the water for long enough to really test that yet," Dr Huckerby says.

Other issues critics have raised are similar to those levelled at the wind power industry - unsightly blots on the landscape (for those visible from land), lack of predictability, and damage to wildlife.

Where wind turbines have attracted charges of killing birds, The New York Times reported one case where a series of tidal turbines in the East River were scuttled after environmentalists complained of potential damage to fish.

However, environmental economist Ralph Chapman, an associate professor at Victoria University, says it's a smart move for New Zealand to develop new technologies.

"We've got to pick a few areas where we can develop an edge. There are really good examples of where governments have invested strategically in these areas - the Danish wind industry, for one. It's made a big difference there."

Wave power was a good option as New Zealand had a long coastline and big wave resources because of our latitude, he says.

"The British are really zooming ahead, so we would have to work with them."

If anything, $8 million may not be enough to keep up, Mr Chapman says.

But evidence of climate change grows by the week and it is clear governments like New Zealand's are keen to be seen as responsive to an issue of which the public is growing more aware.

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Russian hackers accessed US electric utilities' control rooms

Russian Utility Grid Cyberattacks reveal DHS findings on Dragonfly/Energetic Bear breaching control rooms and ICS/SCADA via vendor supply-chain spear-phishing, threatening blackouts and critical infrastructure across U.S. power utilities through stolen credentials and reconnaissance.

 

Key Points

State-backed ops breaching utilities via vendors to reach ICS/SCADA, risking grid disruption and control-room access.

✅ Spear-phishing and watering-hole attacks on vendor networks

✅ Stolen credentials used to reach isolated ICS/SCADA

✅ Potential to trigger localized blackouts and service disruptions

 

Hackers working for Russia were able to gain access to the control rooms of US electric utilities last year, allowing them to cause blackouts, federal officials tell the Wall Street Journal.

The hackers -- working for a state-sponsored group previously identified as Dragonfly or Energetic Bear -- broke into utilities' isolated networks by hacking networks belonging to third-party vendors that had relationships with the power companies, the Department of Homeland Security said in a press briefing on Monday.

Officials said the campaign had claimed hundreds of victims and is likely continuing, the Journal reported.

"They got to the point where they could have thrown switches" to disrupt the flow power, Jonathan Homer, chief of industrial-control-system analysis for DHS, told the Journal.

"While hundreds of energy and non-energy companies were targeted, the incident where they gained access to the industrial control system was a very small generation asset that would not have had any impact on the larger grid if taken offline," the DHS said in a statement Tuesday. "Over the course of the past year as we continued to investigate the activity, we learned additional information which would be helpful to industry in defending against this threat."

Organizations running the nation's energy, nuclear and other critical infrastructure have become frequent targets for cyberattacks in recent years due to their ability to cause immediate chaos, whether it's starting a blackout or blocking traffic signals. These systems are often vulnerable because of antiquated software and the high costs of upgrading infrastructure.

The report comes amid heightened tension between Russia and the US over cybersecurity, alongside US condemnation of power grid hacking in recent months. Earlier this month, US special counsel Robert Mueller filed charges against 12 Russian hackers tied to cyberattacks on the Democratic National Committee.

Hackers compromised US power utility companies' corporate networks with conventional approaches, such as spear-phishing emails and watering-hole attacks as seen in breaches at power plants across the US that target a specific group of users by infecting websites they're known to visit, the newspaper reported. After gaining access to vendor networks, hackers turned their attention to stealing credentials for access to the utility networks and familiarizing themselves with facility operations, officials said, according to the Journal.

Homeland Security didn't identify the victims, the newspaper reports, adding that some companies may not know they had been compromised because the attacks used legitimate credentials to gain access to the networks.

Cyberattacks on electrical systems aren't an academic matter. In 2016, Ukraine's grid was disrupted by cyberattacks attributed to Russia, which is engaged in territorial disputes with the country over eastern Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula. Russia has denied any involvement in targeting critical infrastructure.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in May designed to bolster the United States' cybersecurity by protecting federal networks, critical infrastructure and the public online. One section of the order focuses on protecting the grid like electricity and water, as well as financial, health care and telecommunications systems.

The Department of Homeland Security didn't respond to a request for comment.

 

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Nord Stream: Norway and Denmark tighten energy infrastructure security after gas pipeline 'attack'

Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage triggers Baltic Sea gas leaks as Norway and Denmark tighten energy infrastructure security, offshore surveillance, and exclusion zones, after drone sightings near platforms and explosions reported by experts.

 

Key Points

An alleged attack causing Baltic gas leaks and heightened energy security measures in Norway and Denmark.

✅ Norway boosts offshore and onshore site security

✅ Denmark enforces 5 nm exclusion zone near leaks

✅ Drones spotted; police probe sabotage and safety breaches

 

Norway and Denmark will increase security and surveillance around their energy infrastructure sites after the alleged sabotage of Russia's Nord Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, as the EU pursues a plan to dump Russian energy to safeguard supplies. 

Major leaks struck two underwater natural gas pipelines running from Russia to Germany, which has moved to a 200 billion-euro energy shield amid surging prices, with experts reporting that explosions rattled the Baltic Sea beforehand.

Norway -- an oil-rich nation and Europe's biggest supplier of gas -- will strengthen security at its land and offshore installations, even as it weighs curbing electricity exports to avoid shortages, the country's energy minister said.

The Scandinavian country's Petroleum Safety Authority also urged vigilance on Monday after unidentified drones were seen flying near Norway's offshore oil and gas platforms.

"The PSA has received a number of warnings/notifications from operator companies on the Norwegian Continental Shelf concerning the observation of unidentified drones/aircraft close to offshore facilities" the agency said in a statement.

"Cases where drones have infringed the safety zone around facilities are now being investigated by the Norwegian police."

Meanwhile Denmark will increase security across its energy sector after the Nord Stream incident, as wider market strains, including Germany's struggling local utilities, ripple across Europe, a spokesperson for gas transmission operator Energinet told Upstream.

The Danish Maritime Agency has also imposed an exclusion zone for five nautical miles around the leaks, warning ships of a danger they could lose buoyancy, and stating there is a risk of the escaping gas igniting "above the water and in the air," even as Europe weighs emergency electricity measures to limit prices.

Denmark's defence minister said there was no cause for security concerns in the Baltic Sea region.

"Russia has a significant military presence in the Baltic Sea region and we expect them to continue their sabre-rattling," Morten Bodskov said in a statement.

Video taken by a Danish military plane on Tuesday afternoon showed the extent of one of gas pipeline leaks, with the surface of the Baltic bubbling up as gas escapes, highlighting Europe's energy crisis for global audiences:

Meanwhile police in Sweden have opened a criminal investigation into "gross sabotage" of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, and Sweden's crisis management unit was activated to monitor the situation. The unit brings together representatives from different government agencies. 

Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde had a call with her Danish counterpart Jeppe Kofod on Tuesday evening, and the pair also spoke with Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt on Wednesday, as the bloc debates gas price cap strategies to address the crisis, with Kofod saying there should be a "clear and unambiguous EU statement about the explosions in the Baltic Sea." 

"Focus now on uncovering exactly what has happened - and why. Any sabotage against European energy infrastructure will be met with a robust and coordinated response," said Kofod. 

 

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Grid coordination opens road for electric vehicle flexibility

Smart EV Charging orchestrates vehicle-to-grid (V2G), demand response, and fast charging to balance the power grid, integrating renewables, electrolyzers for hydrogen, and megawatt chargers for fleets with advanced control and co-optimization.

 

Key Points

Smart EV charging coordinates EV load to stabilize the grid, cut peaks, and integrate renewable energy efficiently.

✅ Reduces peak demand via coordinated, flexible load control

✅ Enables V2G services with renewables and battery storage

✅ Supports megawatt fast charging for heavy-duty fleets

 

As electric vehicle (EV) sales continue to rev up in the United States, the power grid is in parallel contending with the greatest transformation in its 100-year history: the large-scale integration of renewable energy and power electronic devices. The expected expansion of EVs will shift those challenges into high gear, causing cities to face gigawatt-growth in electricity demand, as analyses of EV grid impacts indicate, and higher amounts of variable energy.

Coordinating large numbers of EVs with the power system presents a highly complex challenge. EVs introduce variable electrical loads that are highly dependent on customer behavior. Electrified transportation involves co-optimization with other energy systems, like natural gas and bulk battery storage, including mobile energy storage flexibility for new operational options. It could involve fleets of automated ride-hailing EVs and lead to hybrid-energy truck stops that provide hydrogen and fast-charging to heavy-duty vehicles.

Those changes will all test the limits of grid integration, but the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) sees opportunity at the intersection of energy systems and transportation. With powerful resources for simulating and evaluating complex systems, several NREL projects are determining the coordination required for fast charging, balancing electrical supply and demand, and efficient use of all energy assets.


Smart and Not-So-Smart Control
To appreciate the value of coordinated EV charging, it is helpful to imagine the opposite scenario.

"Our first question is how much benefit or burden the super simple, uncoordinated approach to electric vehicle charging offers the grid," said Andrew Meintz, the researcher leading NREL's Electric Vehicle Grid Integration team, as well as the RECHARGE project for smart EV charging. "Then we compare that to the 'whiz-bang,' everything-is-connected approach. We want to know the difference in value."

In the "super simple" approach, Meintz explained that battery-powered electric vehicles grow in market share, exemplified by mass-market EVs, without any evolution in vehicle charging coordination. Picture every employee at your workplace driving home at 5 p.m. and charging their vehicle. That is the grid's equivalent of going 0 to 100 mph, and if it does not wreck the system, it is at least very expensive. According to NREL's Electrification Futures Study, a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of widespread electrification across all U.S. economic sectors, in 2050 EVs could contribute to a 33% increase in energy use during peak electrical demand, underscoring state grid challenges that make these intervals costly when energy reserves are procured. In duck curve parlance, EVs will further strain the duck's neck.

The Optimization and Control Lab's Electric Vehicle Grid Integration bays allow researchers to determine how advanced high power chargers can be added safely and effectively to the grid, with the potential to explore how to combine buildings and EV charging. Credit: Dennis Schroeder, NREL
Meintz's "whiz-bang" approach instead imagines EV control strategies that are deliberate and serve to smooth, rather than intensify, the upcoming demand for electricity. It means managing both when and where vehicles charge to create flexible load on the grid.

At NREL, smart strategies to dispatch vehicles for optimal charging are being developed for both the grid edge, where consumers and energy users connect to the grid, as in RECHARGEPDF, and the entire distribution system, as in the GEMINI-XFC projectPDF. Both projects, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Vehicle Technologies Office, lean on advanced capabilities at NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility to simulate future energy systems.

At the grid edge, EVs can be co-optimized with distributed energy resources—small-scale generation or storage technologies—the subject of a partnership with Eaton that brought industry perspectives to bear on coordinated management of EV fleets.

At the larger-system level, the GEMINI-XFC project has extended EV optimization scenarios to the city scale—the San Francisco Bay Area, to be specific.

"GEMINI-XFC involves the highest-ever-fidelity modeling of transportation and the grid," said NREL Research Manager of Grid-Connected Energy Systems Bryan Palmintier.

"We're combining future transportation scenarios with a large metro area co-simulationPDF—millions of simulated customers and a realistic distribution system model—to find the best approaches to vehicles helping the grid."

GEMINI-XFC and RECHARGE can foresee future electrification scenarios and then insert controls that reduce grid congestion or offset peak demand, for example. Charging EVs involves a sort of shell game, where loads are continually moved among charging stations to accommodate grid demand.

But for heavy-duty vehicles, the load is harder to hide. Electrified truck fleets will hit the road soon, creating power needs for electric truck fleets that translate to megawatts of localized demand. No amount of rerouting can avoid the requirements of charging heavy-duty vehicles or other instances of extreme fast-charging (XFC). To address this challenge, NREL is working with industry and other national laboratories to study and demonstrate the technological buildout necessary to achieve 1+ MW charging stationsPDF that are capable of fast charging at very high energy levels for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.

To reach such a scale, NREL is also considering new power conversion hardware based on advanced materials like wide-bandgap semiconductors, as well as new controllers and algorithms that are uniquely suited for fleets of charge-hungry vehicles. The challenge to integrate 1+ MW charging is also pushing NREL research to higher power: Upcoming capabilities will look at many-megawatt systems that tie in the support of other energy sectors.


Renewable In-Roads for Hydrogen

At NREL, the drive toward larger charging demands is being met with larger research capabilities. The announcement of ARIES opens the door to energy systems integration research at a scale 10-times greater than current capabilities: 20 MW, up from 2 MW. Critically, it presents an opportunity to understand how mobility with high energy demands can be co-optimized with other utility-scale assets to benefit grid stability.

"If you've got a grid humming along with a steady load, then a truck requires 500 kW or more of power, it could create a large disruption for the grid," said Keith Wipke, the laboratory program manager for fuel cells and hydrogen technologies at NREL.

Such a high power demand could be partially served by battery storage systems. Or it could be hidden entirely with hydrogen production. Wipke's program, with support from the DOE's Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office, has been performing studies into how electrolyzers—devices that use electricity to break water into hydrogen and oxygen—could offset the grid impacts of XFC. These efforts are also closely aligned with DOE's H2@Scale vision for affordable and effective hydrogen use across multiple sectors, including heavy-duty transportation, power generation, and metals manufacturing, among others.

"We're simulating electrolyzers that can match the charging load of heavy-duty battery electric vehicles. When fast charging begins, the electrolyzers are ramped down. When fast charging ends, the electrolyzers are ramped back up," Wipke said. "If done smoothly, the utility doesn't even know it's happening."

NREL Researchers Rishabh Jain, Kazunori Nagasawa, and Jen Kurtz are working on how grid integration of electrolyzers—devices that use electricity to break water into hydrogen and oxygen—could offset the grid impacts of extreme fast-charging. Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
As electrolyzers harness the cheap electrons from off-demand periods, a significant amount of hydrogen can be produced on site. That creates a natural energy pathway from discount electricity into a fuel. It is no wonder, then, that several well-known transportation and fuel companies have recently initiated a multimillion-dollar partnership with NREL to advance heavy-duty hydrogen vehicle technologies.

"The logistics of expanding electric charging infrastructure from 50 kW for a single demonstration battery electric truck to 5,000 kW for a fleet of 100 could present challenges," Wipke said. "Hydrogen scales very nicely; you're basically bringing hydrogen to a fueling station or producing it on site, but either way the hydrogen fueling events are decoupled in time from hydrogen production, providing benefits to the grid."

The long driving range and fast refuel times—including a DOE target of achieving 10-minutes refuel for a truck—have already made hydrogen the standout solution for applications in warehouse forklifts. Further, NREL is finding that distributed electrolyzers can simultaneously produce hydrogen and improve voltage conditions, which can add much-needed stability to a grid that is accommodating more energy from variable resources.

Those examples that co-optimize mobility with the grid, using diverse technologies, are encouraging NREL and its partners to pursue a new scale of systems integration. Several forward-thinking projects are reimagining urban mobility as a mix of energy solutions that integrate the relative strengths of transportation technologies, which complement each other to fill important gaps in grid reliability.


The Future of Urban Mobility
What will electrified transportation look like at high penetrations? A few NREL projects offer some perspective. Among the most experimental, NREL is helping the city of Denver develop a smart community, integrated with electrified mobility and featuring automated charging and vehicle dispatch.

On another path to advanced mobility, Los Angeles has embarked on a plan to modernize its electricity system infrastructure, reflecting California EV grid stability goals—aiming for a 100% renewable energy supply by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. Through the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study, the city is currently working with NREL to assess the full-scale impacts of the transition in a detailed analysis that integrates diverse capabilities across the laboratory.

The transition would include the Port of Long Beach, the busiest container port in the United States.

At the port, NREL is applying the same sort of scenario forecasting and controls evaluation as other projects, in order to find the optimal mix of technologies that can be integrated for both grid stability and a reliable quality of service: a mix of hydrogen fuel-cell and battery EVs, battery storage systems, on-site renewable generation, and extreme coordination among everything.

"Hydrogen at ports makes sense for the same reason as trucks: Marine applications have big power and energy demands," Wipke said. "But it's really the synergies between diverse technologies—the existing infrastructure for EVs and the flexibility of bulk battery systems—that will truly make the transition to high renewable energy possible."

Like the Port of Long Beach, transportation hubs across the nation are adapting to a complex environment of new mobility solutions. Airports and public transit stations involve the movement of passengers, goods, and services at a volume exceeding anywhere else. With the transition to digitally connected electric mobility changing how airports plan for the future, NREL projects such as Athena are using the power of high-performance computing to demonstrate how these hubs can maximize the value of passenger and freight mobility per unit of energy, time, and/or cost.

The growth in complexity for transportation hubs has just begun, however. Looking ahead, fleets of ride-sharing EVs, automated vehicles, and automated ride-sharing EV fleets could present the largest effort to manage mobility yet.


A Self-Driving Power Grid
To understand the full impact of future mobility-service providers, NREL developed the HIVE (Highly Integrated Vehicle Ecosystem) simulation framework. HIVE combines factors related to serving mobility needs and grid operations—such as a customer's willingness to carpool or delay travel, and potentially time-variable costs of recharging—and simulates the outcome in an integrated environment.

"Our question is, how do you optimize the management of a fleet whose primary purpose is to provide rides and improve that fleet's dispatch and charging?" said Eric Wood, an NREL vehicle systems engineer.

HIVE was developed as part of NREL's Autonomous Energy Systems research to optimize the control of automated vehicle fleets. That is, optimized routing and dispatch of automated electric vehicles.

The project imagines how price signals could influence dispatch algorithms. Consider one customer booking a commute through a ride-hailing app. Out of the fleet of vehicles nearby—variously charged and continually changing locations—which one should pick up the customer?

Now consider the movements of thousands of passengers in a city and thousands of vehicles providing transportation services. Among the number of agents, the moment-to-moment change in energy supply and demand, and the broad diversity in vendor technologies, "we're playing with a lot of parameters," Wood said.

But cutting through all the complexity, and in the midst of massive simulations, the end goal for vehicle-to-grid integration is consistent:

"The motivation for our work is that there are forecasts for significant load on the grid from the electrification of transportation," Wood said. "We want to ensure that this load is safely and effectively integrated, while meeting the expectations and needs of passengers."

The Port of Long Beach uses a mix of hydrogen fuel-cell and battery EVs, battery storage systems, on-site renewable generation, and extreme coordination among everything. Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
True Replacement without Caveats

Electric vehicles are not necessarily helpful to the grid, but they can be. As EVs become established in the transportation sector, NREL is studying how to even out any bumps that electrified mobility could cause on the grid and advance any benefits to commuters or industry.

"It all comes down to load flexibility," Meintz said. "We're trying to decide how to optimally dispatch vehicle charging to meet quality-of-service considerations, while also minimizing charging costs."

 

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Electric vehicles are a hot topic in southern Alberta

Canada Electric Vehicle Adoption is accelerating as EV range doubles, fast-charging networks expand along the Trans-Canada Highway, and drivers shift from internal combustion to clean transportation to cut emissions and support climate goals.

 

Key Points

Canada Electric Vehicle Adoption reflects rising EV uptake, longer range, and expanding fast-charging infrastructure.

✅ Average EV range in Canada has nearly doubled in six years.

✅ Fast chargers expanding along Trans-Canada and major corridors.

✅ Gasoline and diesel demand projected to fall sharply by 2040.

 

As green technology for vehicles continues to grow in popularity, with a recent EV event in Regina drawing strong interest, attendance at a seminar in southern Alberta Wednesday showed plenty people want to switch to electric.

FreeU, a series of informal education sessions about electric power and climate change, including electricity vs hydrogen considerations, helped participants to learn more about the world-changing technology.

Also included at the talks was a special electric vehicle meet up, where people interested in the technology could learn about it, first hand, from drivers who've already gone gasless despite EV shortages and wait times in many regions.

"That's kind of a warning or a caution or whatever you want to call it. You get addicted to these things and that's a good example."

James Byrne, a professor of geography at the University of Lethbridge says people are much more willing these days to look to alternatives for their driving needs, though cost remains a key barrier for many.

"The internal combustion engine is on its way out. It served us well, but electric vehicles are much cleaner, aligning with Canada's EV goals set by policymakers today."

According to the Canada Energy Regulator, the average range of electric vehicles in Canada have almost doubled in the past six years.

The agency also predicts a massive decrease in gasoline and diesel use (359 petajoules and 92 petajoules respectively) in Canada by 2040. In that same timeframe, electricity use, even though fossil-fuel share remains, is expected to increase by 118 petajoules.

The country is also developing its network of fast charging stations, so running out of juice will be less of a worry for prospective buyers, even as 2035 EV mandate debate continues among analysts.

"They have just about Interstate in the U.S. covered," Marshall said. "In Canada, they're building out the [Trans-Canada Highway] right now."

 

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America Going Electric: Dollars And Sense

California Net Zero Grid Investment will fuel electrification, renewable energy buildout, EV adoption, and grid modernization, boosting utilities, solar, and storage, while policy, IRA incentives, and transmission upgrades drive reliability and long-term rate base growth.

 

Key Points

Funding to electrify sectors and modernize the grid, scaling renewables, EVs, and storage to meet 2045 net zero goals.

✅ $370B over 22 years to meet 2045 net zero target

✅ Utilities lead gains via grid modernization and rate base growth

✅ EVs, solar, storage scale; IRA credits offset costs

 

$370 billion: That’s the investment Edison International CEO Pedro Pizarro says is needed for California’s power grid to meet the state’s “net zero” goal for CO2 emissions by 2045.

Getting there will require replacing fossil fuels with electricity in transportation, HVAC systems for buildings and industrial processes. Combined with population growth and data demand potentially augmented by artificial intelligence, that adds up to an 82 percent increase in electricity demand over 22 years, or 3 percent annually, and a potential looming shortage if buildout lags.

California’s plans also call for phasing out fossil fuel generation in the state, despite ongoing dependence on fossil power during peaks. And presumably, its last nuclear plant—PG&E Corp’s (PCG) Diablo Canyon—will be eventually be shuttered as well. So getting there also means trebling the state’s renewable energy generation and doubling usage of rooftop solar.

Assuming this investment is made, it’s relatively easy to put together a list of beneficiaries. Electric vehicles hit 20 percent market share in the state in Q2, even as pandemic-era demand shifts complicate load forecasting. And while competition from manufacturers has increased, leading manufacturers like Tesla TSLA -3% Inc (TSLA) can look forward to rising sales for some time—though that’s more than priced in for Elon Musk’s company at 65 times expected next 12 months earnings.

In the past year, California regulators have dialed back net metering through pricing changes affecting compensation, a subsidy previously paying rooftop solar owners premium prices for power sold back to the grid. That’s hit share prices of SunPower Corp (SPWR) and Sunrun Inc (RUN) quite hard, by further undermining business plans yet to demonstrate consistent profitability.

Nonetheless, these companies too can expect robust sales growth, as global prices for solar components drop and Inflation Reduction Act tax credits at least somewhat offset higher interest rates. And the combination of IRA tax credits and U.S. tariff walls will continue to boost sales at solar manufacturers like JinkoSolar Holding (JKS).

The surest, biggest beneficiaries of California’s drive to Net Zero are the utilities, reflecting broader utility trends in grid modernization, with investment increasing earnings and dividends. And as the state’s largest pure electric company, Edison has the clearest path.

Edison is currently requesting California regulators OK recovery over a 30-year period of $2.4 billion in losses related to 2017 wildfires. Assuming a amicable decision by early next year, management can then turn its attention to upgrading the grid. That investment is expected to generate long-term rate base growth of 8 percent at year, fueling 5 to 7 percent annual earnings growth through 2028 with commensurate dividend increases.

That’s a strong value proposition Edison stock, with trades at just 14 times expected next 12 months earnings. The yield of roughly 4.4 percent at current prices was increased 5.4 percent this year and is headed for a similar boost in December.

When California deregulated electricity in 1996, it required utilities with rare exceptions to divest their power generation. As a result, Edison’s growth opportunity is 100 percent upgrading its transmission and distribution grid. And its projects can typically be proposed, sited, permitted and built in less than a year, limiting risk of cost overruns to ensure regulatory approval and strong investment returns.

Edison’s investment plan is also pretty much immune to an unlikely backtracking on Net Zero goals by the state. And the company has a cost argument as well: Dr Pizarro cites U.S. Department of Energy and Department of Transportation data to project inflation-adjusted savings of 40 percent in California’s total customer energy bills from full electrification.

There’s even a reason to believe 40 percent savings will prove conservative. Mainly, gasoline currently accounts for a bit more than half energy expenditures. And after a more than 10-year global oil and gas investment drought, supplies are likely get tighter and prices possibly much higher in coming years.

Of course, those savings will only show up after significant investment is made. At this point, no major utility system in the world runs on 100 percent renewable energy, and California’s blackout politics underscore how reliability concerns shape deployment. And the magnitude of storage technology needed to overcome intermittency in solar and wind generation is not currently available let alone affordable, though both cost and efficiency are advancing.

Taking EVs from 20 to 100 percent of California’s new vehicle sales calls for a similar leap in efficiency and cost, even with generous federal and state subsidy. And while technology to fully electrify buildings and homes is there, economically retrofitting statewide is almost certainly going to be a slog.

At the end of the day, political will is likely to be as important as future technological advance for how much of Pizarro’s $370 billion actually gets spent. And the same will be true across the U.S., with state governments and regulators still by and large calling the shots for how electricity gets generated, transmitted and distributed—as well as who pays for it and how much, even as California’s exported policies influence Western markets.

Ironically, the one state where investors don’t need to worry about renewable energy’s prospects is one of the currently reddest politically. That’s Florida, where NextEra Energy NEE +2.8% (NEE) and other utilities can dramatically cut costs to customers and boost reliability by deploying solar and energy storage.

You won’t hear management asserting it can run the Sunshine State on 100 percent renewable energy, as utilities and regulators do in some of the bluer parts of the country. But by demonstrating the cost and reliability argument for solar deployment, NextEra is also making the case why its stock is America’s highest percentage bet on renewables’ growth—particularly at a time when all things energy are unfortunately becoming increasingly, intensely political.

 

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Ontario will not renew electricity deal with Quebec

Ontario-Quebec Electricity Trade Agreement ends as Ontario pivots to IESO procurement, hydropower alternatives, natural gas capacity, and energy auctions, impacting grid reliability, power imports, and GHG emissions across both provincial markets.

 

Key Points

A seven-year power import pact; Ontario will end it, shifting to IESO procurement and gas capacity.

✅ Seasonal hydropower exchange of 2.3 TWh annually.

✅ IESO projects Quebec supply constraints by decade end.

✅ Ontario adds gas, auctions; near-term sector GHGs rise.

 

The Ontario government does not plan to renew the Ontario-Quebec electricity trade agreement, Radio-Canada is reporting.

The seven-year contract, which expires next year, aims to reduce Ontario's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by buying 2.3 Terawatt-hours of electricity from Quebec annually — that corresponds to about seven per cent of Hydro-Quebec's average annual exports.

The announcement comes as the provincially owned Quebec utility continues its legal battle over a plan to export power to Massachusetts.

The Ontario agreement has guaranteed a seasonal exchange of energy, since Quebec has a power surplus in summer, and the province's electricity needs increase in the winter. Ontario plans on exercising its last and only option in the summer of 2026, for a block of 500 megawatts.

The office of the Ontario Minister of Energy Todd Smith says the province will save money by relying "on a competitive procurement process" instead, amid debates over clean, affordable electricity policy in Ontario. And, the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), the equivalent of Hydro-Quebec in Ontario, added that, at any rate, Quebec is expected to "run out of electricity in the middle or at the end of the decade."

During the Quebec election campaign, Premier Francois Legault said his province needed to increase hydroelectricity production because he is expecting demand for hydroelectricity to increase by an additional 100 terawatt-hours in the coming decades — half of Hydro-Quebec's current annual output.

Coalition Avenir Quebec pitches more hydro dams to Quebec voters
The provinces will still continue to buy and sell power, reaching deals through annual energy auctions.

Eloise Edom, an associate researcher at Polytechnique Montreal's Institut de l'energie Trottier, says the announcement came as somewhat of a surprise because "we're still talking about a lot of energy."

Hydro-Quebec refused to comment on "the SIERE [Independent Electricity System Operator]'s intentions for the agreement, which ends next year," said company spokesperson Lynn St-Laurent.

No green options
Yet Ontario is running out of electricity, even as questions persist about whether it is embracing clean power to meet demand, in part because of plans to refurbish nuclear reactors at the Bruce and Darlington generator stations.

Windsor has already lost out on a $2.5-billion factory because the region is short of electricity for new industrial loads. And by 2025, Toronto will run out of power for the electrification of its transit system, according to the latest estimates from the IESO.

The Ford government recently announced that it hopes to extend the life of the Pickering nuclear station amid ongoing debate. It is also evaluating the possibility of increasing hydroelectricity production at its existing dams.

For now, Ontario is banking on its natural gas plants to meet demand, which have won most recent IESO tenders for contracts running until 2026. Last Friday, the province announced that it was going to buy an additional 1,500 megawatts by 2027.

"The [Ontario energy] minister's expectations may be that the increase in natural gas prices is temporary and that it will fade," energy economist Jean-Thomas Bernard said. "With this in mind, he probably does not want to sign a long-term contract [with Hydro-Quebec] and prefers to buy electricity on a day-to-day basis and through calls for tenders."

If the Quebec deal expires, Ontario, Canada's second highest GHG emitter, would have to increase its emissions for the sector, at least in the medium term, with electricity getting dirtier as gas fills the gap.

Last year, the IESO found that it would be very difficult to set a moratorium on natural gas before 2030. The IESO must produce a final report on the subject for the energy minister by the end of November.


 

 

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