Winter power will be reliable: NERC

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The outlook for electricity reliability for the coming winter season is good, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) announced in its annual 2007/2008 Winter Reliability Assessment.

Though winter peak demand is projected to increase by more than 2 percent over last yearÂ’s projections in many regions and capacity margins to decline by about half a percent overall, every region reports projected capacity margins well above target levels. Fuel inventories for electricity generation, both natural gas and coal, are also projected to be very strong over the winter months.

“While our recent long-term outlook showed we have a long way to go before we can confidently say we have secured a reliable and adequate long-term future for electricity, our winter outlook shows that the industry is rising to meet short-term needs,” said Rick Sergel, president and CEO of NERC.

“Most of North America is summer peaking, meaning that more electricity is used during the summer than the winter,” Sergel added. “As a result, winter capacity margins are typically higher than we see in summer forecasts.”

Specific findings, as detailed in the report, include:

Drought in Southeastern U.S. not expected to impact reliability — NERC and the SERC Reliability Corporation have been carefully monitoring continuing drought conditions in the Southeastern U.S. but do not expect them to impact electricity reliability in the region during the coming winter season. When river levels become too low or water temperatures too warm, hydroelectric and other generators using rivers and streams for cooling water may reduce output or even shut down to meet environmental and operational regulations. SERC members have developed plans to manage low water conditions throughout the season and consequently forecast adequate generation availability to meet peak and daily energy demands. Should severe drought conditions persist as the summer months approach, rising demand may strain available resources.

Demand response projected to grow by 12% across North America — Driven by considerable increases in the availability of demand-side resources in New England and the Midsouth, demand response is projected to increase by approximately 2,100 MW. Building on substantial penetration in ERCOT, MRO, SERC, and, most notably, FRCC, this growth is an encouraging sign of revival for this resource, which has declined for seven of the past eight years.

Transmission expected to be adequate — Recently-completed transmission projects have reinforced critical ties and supported local demand growth in several areas across North America. These projects will also increase grid operators’ ability to manage the effects of severe winter weather and other unplanned system events.

Fuel supply for electricity generation near record highs — Natural gas storage has ended the injection season slightly below the all-time high for natural gas storage inventories recorded at the end of November 1990. Plant inventories for coal at electric generators are also ahead of historically normal levels with inventories totaling 45 days versus 40 days in July 2006.

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Japanese utilities buy into vast offshore wind farm in UK

Japan Offshore Wind Investment signals Japanese utilities entering UK offshore wind, as J-Power and Kansai Electric buy into Innogy's Triton Knoll, leveraging North Sea expertise, 9.5MW turbines, and 15-year fixed-rate contracts.

 

Key Points

Japanese utilities buying UK offshore wind stakes to import expertise, as J-Power and Kansai join Innogy's Triton Knoll.

✅ $900M deal: J-Power 25%, Kansai Electric ~16% in Innogy unit

✅ Triton Knoll: 860MW, up to 90 9.5MW turbines, 15-year fixed PPA

✅ Goal: Transfer North Sea expertise to develop Japan offshore wind

 

Two of Japan's biggest power companies will buy around 40% of a German-owned developer of offshore wind farms in the U.K., seeking to learn from Britain's lead in this sector, as highlighted by a UK offshore wind milestone this week, and bring the know-how back home.

Tokyo-based Electric Power Development, better known as J-Power, will join Osaka regional utility Kansai Electric Power in investing in a unit of Germany's Innogy.

The deal, estimated to be worth around $900 million, will give J-Power a 25% stake and Kansai Electric a roughly 16% share. It will mark the first investment in an offshore wind project by Japanese power companies, as other markets shift strategies, with Poland backing wind over nuclear signaling broader momentum.

Innogy plans to start up the 860-megawatt Triton Knoll offshore wind project -- one of the biggest of its kind in the world -- in the North Sea in 2021. The vast installation will have up to 90 9.5MW turbines and sell its output to local utilities under a 15-year fixed-rate contract.

J-Power, which supplies mainly fossil-fuel-based electricity to Japanese regional utilities, will set up a subsidiary backed by the government-run Development Bank of Japan to participate in the Innogy project. Engineers will study firsthand construction and maintenance methods.

While land-based wind turbines are proliferating worldwide, offshore wind farms have progressed mainly in Europe, though U.S. offshore wind competitiveness is improving in key markets. Installed capacity totaled more than 18,000MW at the end of 2017, which at maximum capacity can produce as much power as 18 nuclear reactors.

Japan has hardly any offshore wind farms in commercial operation, and has little in the way of engineering know-how in this field or infrastructure for linking such installations to the land power grid, with a recent Japan grid blackout analysis underscoring these challenges. But there are plans for a total of 4,000MW of offshore wind power capacity, including projects under feasibility studies.

J-Power set up a renewable energy division in June to look for opportunities to expand into wind and geothermal energy in Japan, and efforts like a Japan hydrogen energy system are emerging to support decarbonization. Kansai Electric also seeks know-how for increasing its reliance on renewable energy, even as it hurries to restart idled nuclear reactors.

They are not the only Japanese investors is in this field. In Asia, trading house Marubeni will invest in a Taiwanese venture with plans for a 600MW offshore wind farm.

 

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Feds to study using electricity to 'reduce or eliminate' fossil fuels

Electrification Potential Study for Canada evaluates NRCan's decarbonization roadmap, assessing electrification of end uses and replacements for fossil fuels across transportation, buildings, and industry, including propane, diesel, natural gas, and coal, to guide energy policy.

 

Key Points

An NRCan study assessing electrification to replace fossil fuels across sectors and guide deep decarbonization R&D.

✅ Evaluates non-electric alternatives alongside electrification paths

✅ Covers propane, diesel, natural gas, and coal end uses

✅ Guides NRCan R&D priorities for deep decarbonization

 

The federal government wants to spend up to $300,000 on a study aimed at understanding whether existing electrical technologies can “reduce or eliminate” fossil fuels used for virtually every purpose other than generating electricity.

The proposal has caused consternation within the Saskatchewan government, whose premier has criticized a 2035 net-zero grid target as shifting the goalposts, and which has spent months attacking federal policies it believes will harm the Western Canadian energy sector without meaningfully addressing climate change.

Procurement documents indicate the “Electrification Potential Study for Canada” will provide “strategic guidance on the need to pursue both electric and non-electric energy research and development to enable deep decarbonisation scenarios.”

“It is critical that (Natural Resources Canada) as a whole have a cross-sectoral, consistent, and comprehensive understanding of the viability of electric technologies as a replacement for fossil fuels,” the documents state.

The study proponent will be asked to examine possible replacements for a range of fuels, including propane, transportation fuel, fuel oil, diesel, natural gas and coal, even as Alberta maps a path to clean electricity for its grid. Only international travel fuel and electricity generation are outside the scope of the study.

“To be clear, the consultant should not answer these questions directly, but should conduct the analysis with them in mind. The goal … is to collate data which can be used by (Natural Resources Canada) to conduct analysis related to these questions,” the documents state.

Natural Resources Canada issued the request for proposals one week before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau officially launched a 40-day election campaign in which climate and energy policy, including debates over Alberta's power market like a Calgary retailer's challenge, is expected to play a defining role.

It also comes as the federal government works to complete the controversial Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion project through British Columbia, amid tariff threats boosting support for Canadian energy projects, which it bought last year for $4.5 billion and is currently bogged down in the court system.

A Natural Resources Canada spokeswoman said the ministry would not be able to respond to questions until sometime on Thursday.

While the documents make clear that the study aims to answer unresolved questions about what the International Energy Agency calls an increasingly-electric future, with clean grid and storage trends emerging, without a specific timeline, the provincial government is far from thrilled.

Energy and Resources Minister Bronwyn Eyre said the document reflects the federal government’s “hostility” to the energy sector, even as Alberta's electricity sector faces profound change, because government ministries like Natural Resources Canada don’t do anything without political direction.

Asked whether a responsible government should consider every option before taking a decision, Eyre said a government that was not interested in eliminating fossil fuels entirely would not have used such “strong” language in a public document, noting that provinces like Ontario are grappling with hydro system problems as well.

“I think it’s a real wake-up call to what (Ottawa’s) endgame really is here,” she said, adding that the document does not ask the proponent to conduct an economic impact analysis or consider potential job losses in the energy sector.

The study is organized by Natural Resources Canada’s office of energy research and development, which is tasked with accelerating energy technology “in order to produce and use energy in … more clean and efficient ways,” the documents state.

Bidding on the proposal closes Oct. 14, one week before the federal election. The successful proponent must deliver a final report in April 2020, according to the documents.

 

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KHNP is being considered for Bulgarian Nuclear Power Plant Project

KHNP Shortlisted for Belene Nuclear Power Plant, named by the Bulgarian Energy Ministry alongside Rosatom and CNNC; highlights APR1400 reactor expertise, EPC credentials, and expansion into the European nuclear energy market.

 

Key Points

KHNP is a strategic investor candidate for Bulgaria's Belene NPP, leveraging APR1400 and European market entry.

✅ Selected with Rosatom and CNNC by Bulgarian Energy Ministry

✅ Builds on APR1400 reactor design and EPC track record

✅ Positions KHNP for EU nuclear projects and O&M services

 

Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) has been selected as one of the three strategic investor candidates for a Bulgarian nuclear power plant project amid global nuclear project milestones worldwide.

The Bulgarian Energy Ministry selected KHNP of Korea, RosAtom of Russia and CNNC of China as strategic investor candidates for the construction of the Belene Nuclear Power Plant, KHNP said on Dec. 20. The Belene Nuclear Power Plant is the second nuclear power plant that Bulgaria plans to build following the 2,000-megawatt Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant built in 1991 during the Soviet Union era. The project budget is estimated at 10 billion euros.

By being included in the shortlist for the Bulgarian project, KHNP has boosted the possibility of making a foray into the European nuclear power plant market, as India takes steps to get nuclear back on track worldwide. KHNP began to export nuclear power plants in 2009 by winning the UAE Barakah Nuclear Power Plant Project, with Barakah Unit 1 reaching 100% power as it moves toward commercial operations. The UAE plant will be based on the APR1400, a next-generation Korean nuclear reactor that is used in Shin Kori Units 3 and 4 in Korea.

The ARP1400 is a Korean nuclear reactor developed by KHNP with investment of about 230 billion won for 10 years from 1992. The nuclear reactor became the first non-U.S. type reactor to receive a design certificate (DC) from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), as China's nuclear energy program continues on a steady development track globally. By receiving the DC, its safety was internationally recognized. In June, the company also won the maintenance project for the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, completing the entire cycle from the construction of the nuclear power plant to its design, operation and maintenance. However, U.S. and U.K. companies took part of the maintenance project for the nuclear power plant.

In July, KHNP officials visited Turkey and contacted local energy officials to prepare for nuclear power plant projects to be launched in that country, as Bangladesh develops nuclear power with IAEA assistance in the region. Earlier in May, the company also submitted a proposal to participate in the construction of a new nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, while Kenya moves forward with plans for a $5 billion plant.

 

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Texas's new set of electricity regulators begins to take shape in wake of deep freeze, power outages

Texas PUC Appointments signal post-storm reform as Gov. Greg Abbott taps Peter Lake and advances Will McAdams for Senate confirmation, affecting ERCOT oversight, grid reliability, wholesale power pricing, and securitization for co-ops.

 

Key Points

Texas PUC appointments add Peter Lake and Will McAdams to steer ERCOT, grid reliability, and market policy.

✅ Peter Lake nominated chair to replace Arthur D'Andrea.

✅ Will McAdams advances toward Senate confirmation.

✅ Focus on ERCOT oversight, price cap debate, grid resilience.

 

A new set of Texas electricity regulators began to take shape Monday, as Gov. Greg Abbott nominated a finance expert to be the next chairman of the Public Utility Commission while his earlier choice of a PUC member moved toward Senate confirmation.

The Republican governor put forward Peter Lake of Austin, who has spent more than five years as an Abbott appointee to the Texas Water Development Board, as his second commission pick in as many weeks.

“I am confident he will bring a fresh perspective and trustworthy leadership to the PUC,” Abbott said of Lake, who once worked as a trader of futures and derivatives for a firm belonging to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and more recently has eagerly promoted bonds for the State Water Implementation Fund for Texas.

“Peter’s expertise in the Texas energy industry and business management will make him an asset to the agency,” Abbott, who has touted grid readiness in recent months, said in a written statement. “I urge the Senate to swiftly confirm Peter’s appointment.”

On Monday, the Senate appeared to be moving quickly to confirm Abbott’s April 1 selection for the PUC, Will McAdams, president of Associated Builders and Contractors of Texas and a former legislative aide who helped write policy for regulated industries such as electricity.

McAdams was among the 129 nominees that the Senate Nominations Committee voted out, 8-0. His nomination heads now to the Senate floor.

All three of Abbott’s handpicked PUC commissioners who were in place before and during February’s calamitous winter storm have since quit or said they’re resigning, even as Sierra Club criticism of Abbott's demands intensified in the aftermath.

February’s polar vortex left in its wake physical and financial wreckage after a nonprofit grid operator answering to the PUC, amid calls for market reforms to avoid blackouts, shut off electricity to more than 4 million Texans, causing the deaths of at least 125 people, 13 of them in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday named Will McAdams to the embattled Public Utility Commission of Texas. McAdams is a construction industry lobbyist with strong ties to the GOP-controlled Legislature. In Feb. 17 file photo, winter storm's snowfall andn large electrical transmission lines in South Arlington are pictured.

In a 45-minute confirmation hearing, McAdams, as lawmakers discussed ways to improve electricity reliability statewide, drew praise – and few tough questions.

McAdams, who previously worked for three GOP senators, testified that had he been on the commission in February, he would not have kept in place a controversial, $9,000-per-megawatt hour price cap on wholesale power for about 32 hours on Feb. 18-19.

“I don’t see myself making that decision,” he said.

McAdams, though, hedged slightly, saying he’s not privy to all information that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, and the PUC may have had at their disposal during the crisis.

The comments were notable because Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and the Senate have fought with Abbott and the House over $16 billion in overcharges that, according to an independent market monitor, wrongly accrued near the end of the Feb. 15-19 outages.

Sen. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, said the commission’s former chairwoman, DeAnn Walker, and Bill Magness, president of ERCOT, decided to hold the high cap in place because there “was still great concern about grid stability, even though there was significant reserves.”

He pressed McAdams to call that incorrect, which McAdams did.

“Given the fact pattern that I’m privy to, senator,” it wasn’t the right move, he said. “But again, there may be other facts out there. There probably are.”

McAdams acknowledged many homeowners and businesses were traumatized.

“The public’s confidence in the ability of the PUC to effectively regulate our electric markets has been badly damaged and shaken,” he said.

McAdams spoke favorably of renewable energy, calling wind and solar “absolutely valuable resources,” as the electricity sector faces profound change nationwide. To whatever extent those are not available, the PUC should “firm that up” with “dispatchable forms of generation,” such as gas, coal and nuclear, McAdams said.

He also called for lawmakers to consider providing electricity market bailout through “securitization,” or low-interest bond financing, to rural electric co-ops that were unable to pay the massive wholesale power bills they racked up during the February crisis.

“It would prevent those systems from having to front-load those costs onto their own members and smooth that out over a term of years,” while preventing an “uplift” of costs to other market participants who wisely hedged against soaring prices, McAdams said.

Noting that more than 400 bills have been filed to change ERCOT and how it’s governed, and as Texans prepare to vote on grid modernization funding this year, McAdams told the Senate panel, “It is clear to me that the Legislature wants meaningful changes to the status quo – to ensure that something positive comes out of this tragedy.”

Lake, who if confirmed by the Senate would replace Arthur D’Andrea as PUC chairman, grew up in Tyler. He attended prep school in New England and earned an undergraduate degree from the University of Chicago and a master of business administration degree from Stanford University.

He then worked for a commodities trading firm, a behavioral health company and as a business consultant before he became director of business development for Tyler-based Lake Ronel Oil Co. in 2014.

In late 2015, Abbott named Lake to the Texas Water Development Board and in February 2018 picked him to be the chairman of the three-member board that seeks to ensure water supplies for a fast-growing state.

Lake has steered the water board as it rolled out additional loans for water projects, approved by the Legislature and voters in 2013, and took the lead after Hurricane Harvey on flood control planning and infrastructure financing.

He’s posted exuberantly on Twitter as he toured agricultural water installations, lakes in West Texas and river authorities.

If confirmed, Lake and McAdams each would make $189,500 a year.

 

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BC Hydro says three LNG companies continue to demand electricity, justifying Site C

BC Hydro LNG Load Forecast signals rising electricity demand from LNG Canada, Woodfibre, and Tilbury, aligning Site C dam capacity with BCUC review, hydroelectric supply, and a potential fourth project in feasibility study British Columbia.

 

Key Points

BC Hydro's projection of LNG-driven power demand, guiding Site C capacity, BCUC review, and grid planning.

✅ Includes LNG Canada, Woodfibre, and Tilbury load requests

✅ Aligns Site C hydroelectric output with industrial electrification

✅ Notes feasibility study for a fourth LNG project

 

Despite recent project cancellations, such as the Siwash Creek independent power project now in limbo, BC Hydro still expects three LNG projects — and possibly a fourth, which is undergoing a feasibility study — will need power from its controversial and expensive Site C hydroelectric dam.

In a letter sent to the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC) on Oct. 3, BC Hydro’s chief regulatory officer Fred James said the provincially owned utility’s load forecast includes power demand for three proposed liquefied natural gas projects because they continue to ask the company for power.

The letter and attached report provide some detail on which of the LNG projects proposed in B.C. are more likely to be built, given recent project cancellations.

The documents are also an attempt to explain why BC Hydro continues to forecast a surge in electricity demand in the province, as seen in its first call for power in 15 years driven by electrification, even though massive LNG projects proposed by Malaysia’s state owned oil company Petronas and China’s CNOOC Nexen have been cancelled.

An explanation is needed because B.C.’s new NDP government had promised the BCUC would review the need for the $9-billion Site C dam, which was commissioned to provide power for the province’s nascent LNG industry, amid debates over alternatives like going nuclear among residents. The commission had specifically asked for an explanation of BC Hydro’s electric load forecast as it relates to LNG projects by Wednesday.

The three projects that continue to ask BC Hydro for electricity are Shell Canada Ltd.’s LNG Canada project, the Woodfibre LNG project and a future expansion of FortisBC’s Tilbury LNG storage facility.

None of those projects have officially been sanctioned but “service requests from industrial sector customers, including LNG, are generally included in our industrial load forecast,” the report noted, even as Manitoba Hydro warned about energy-intensive customers in a separate notice.

In a redacted section of the report, BC Hydro also raises the possibility of a fourth LNG project, which is exploring the need for power in B.C.

“BC Hydro is currently undertaking feasibility studies for another large LNG project, which is not currently included in its Current Load Forecast,” one section of the report notes, though the remainder of the section is redacted.

The Site C dam, which has become a source of controversy in B.C. and was an important election issue, is currently under construction and, following two new generating stations recently commissioned, is expected to be in service by 2024, a timeline which had been considered to provide LNG projects with power by the time they are operational.

BC Hydro’s letter to the BCUC refers to media and financial industry reports that indicate global LNG markets will require more supply by 2023.

“While there remains significant uncertainty, global LNG demand will continue to grow and there is opportunity for B.C. LNG,” the report notes.

 

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"Energy war": Ukraine tries to protect electricity supply before winter

Ukraine Power Grid Resilience details preparations for winter blackouts, airstrike defense, decentralized generation, backup generators, battery storage, DTEK restorations, EU grid synchronization, and upgraded air defenses to safeguard electricity, heating, water, and essential services.

 

Key Points

Ukraine Power Grid Resilience is a strategy to harden energy systems against winter attacks and outages.

✅ DTEK repairs, backup equipment, and fortified plants across Ukraine

✅ Expanded air defenses targeting missiles and attack drones

✅ EU grid sync enables emergency imports and power trading

 

Oleksandr Gindyuk is determined not to be caught off guard if electricity supplies fail again this winter. When Russia pounded Ukraine’s power grid with widespread and repeated waves of airstrikes last year, causing massive rolling blackouts, his wife had just given birth to their second daughter.

“It was quite difficult,”  Gindyuk, who lives with his family in the suburbs of the capital, Kyiv, told CNN. “There is no life in our house if there is no electricity. Without electricity, we have no water, light or heating.”

He has spent the summer preparing for Russia to repeat its strategy, which was designed to sow terror and make life unsustainable, robbing Ukrainians of heat, water and health services. “We are totally ready — we have a diesel generator and a powerful 9 kWh battery. We are not scared, we are ready,” Gindyuk told CNN.

As families like Gindyuk’s gird themselves for the possibility of another dark winter, Ukraine has been rushing to rebuild and, drawing on protecting the grid lessons, protect its fragile energy infrastructure.

The summer provided a respite for Ukraine’s power grid. Russia focused its attacks on military targets and on ports on the Black Sea and the Danube River, to hinder Ukraine’s efforts to move grain and choke off an important income stream.

As the days grow shorter and the temperatures drop, Russia has another opportunity to try to break Ukrainian resilience with punishing blackouts. But this winter, defense and energy officials say Ukraine is better prepared.

With limited Ukrainian air defenses in operation last year, Russia was able to target and hit the energy grid easily, including during missile and drone assaults on Kyiv’s grid that strained responders.

“The Russians may use a combination of missile weapons and attack UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones). These will definitely not be such primitive attacks as last year. It will be difficult for the Russians to achieve a result - we are also preparing and understanding how they act.”

DTEK, the country’s largest private energy company, has spent the past seven months restoring infrastructure, trying to boost output and bolstering defenses at its facilities across Ukraine, mindful of Russian utility hacks reported elsewhere.

“We restored what could be restored, bought back-up equipment and installed defenses around power plants, as Russian-linked breaches at US plants have underscored risks,” DTEK chief executive Maxim Timchenko told CNN.

The company generates around a quarter of Ukraine’s electricity and runs 40% of its grid network, making it a prime target for Russian attacks. Four DTEK employees have been killed while on duty and its power stations have been attacked nearly 300 times since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to the company. “Last winter, determination carried us through. This winter we are stronger, and our people are more experienced,” Timchenko said.

Russia launched 1,200 attacks on Ukraine’s energy system between October 2022 and April 2023, with every thermal power and hydro-electric plant in the country sustaining some damage, according to DTEK.

In a damage assessment report released in June, the United Nations Development Programme said that Ukraine’s power generation capacity had been reduced to about half of what it was before Russia’s full-scale invasion. “Ukraine’s power system continues to operate in an emergency mode, which affects both power grids and generation, amid rising concerns about state-backed grid hacking worldwide,” a news release accompanying the report said.

The report also laid out a roadmap to rebuilding the energy sector, prioritizing decentralization, renewable energy sources and greater integration with the European Union. Ukraine has been hooked into the EU’s power grid since the full-scale invasion, allowing it to synchronize and trade power with the bloc. But the massive wave of attacks on energy infrastructure last winter threw that balance off kilter.

 

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