State consider seven coal plants

By Knight Ridder Tribune


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While Gov. Jennifer Granholm is in California hawking Michigan's capabilities as a center of new energy technology, seven new coal-fueled power plants are formally proposed or under serious discussion in Michigan.

A coalition of environmental groups said that's too many and the state needs to halt what they say is dirty, old-fashioned fossil-fuel technology.

"These will keep Michigan locked in the energy dark ages and saddle our state with outmoded technology and high costs," said Anne Woiwode, director of the Michigan chapter of the Sierra Club. Michigan already has 19 coal plants. No coal plants have been built in the state in nearly 20 years, and in that time, many manufacturing plants have closed and the state has lost population.

"The question is whether we even have a need for these plants," Woiwode said.

The Public Service Commission said last year that by 2012, Michigan will need at most two new 500-megawatt plants, which could be coal, nuclear or some other type.

However, Michigan economist David Littmann has said more recent forecasts mean that over he next five years, the state's energy needs could decline, not grow. Four of the proposed plants would produce a combined 2,160 megawatts. DTE Energy has said it wants to build a second large nuclear plant near its existing Fermi plant.

Nationwide, there is a rush to build coal-fired plants, with companies trying to win approval for new plants before expected federal rules kick in that restrict carbon dioxide emissions, said Abby Rubley, field director of Environment Michigan.

At least 150 coal-fired plants are proposed nationwide. Clean Energy Now, made up of several statewide groups, said it plans an aggressive campaign to stop the onslaught of new plants. The group will ask residents to contact legislators to put a moratorium on new coal plants and to pass legislation requiring more renewable energy and more energy efficiency. That alone could meet increased needs for electricity, Woiwode said.

Renewable energy sources - such as wind, water and solar power - supply only 3% of the state's electricity needs. Various groups are pushing for a 20% renewable energy standard for electricity companies by 2020 and for more stringent energy efficiency requirements.

Coal provides about 60% of the state's electricity needs, according to a 2006 U.S. Department of Energy report. Most of the rest comes from nuclear power and natural gas. Michigan's coal plants use pulverized coal, which is burned in a combustion chamber at utility plants.

Private companies, rather than utilities, proposing to build coal plants is new, Rubley said. Under state laws, only utility-owned plants have to get approval for new coal plants from the PSC.

The privately owned plants, which sell the electricity they generate, need only air-quality and, in some cases, water permits from the state.

Some of the companies proposing plants say they would used coal gasification, which doesn't directly burn the coal, instead breaking down the coal molecules. It is cleaner than traditional coal-burning plants, but that doesn't make it clean, Rubley said.

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California faces huge power cuts as wildfires rage

California Wildfire Power Shut-Offs escalate as PG&E imposes blackouts amid high winds, Getty and Kincade fires, mass evacuations, Sonoma County threats, and a state of emergency, drawing regulatory scrutiny over grid safety and outage scope.

 

Key Points

Planned utility outages to curb wildfire risk during extreme winds, prompting evacuations and regulatory scrutiny.

✅ PG&E preemptive blackouts under regulator inquiry

✅ Getty and Kincade fires drive mass evacuations

✅ Sonoma County under threat amid high winds

 

Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) already faces an investigation by regulators after cutting supplies to 970,000 homes and businesses amid California blackouts that raised concerns.

It announced that another 650,000 properties would face precautionary shut-offs.

Wildfires fanned by the strong winds are raging in two parts of the state.

Thousands of residents near the wealthy Brentwood neighbourhood of Los Angeles have been told to evacuate because of a wildfire that began early on Monday.

Further north in Sonoma County, a larger fire has forced 180,000 people from their homes.

California's governor has declared a state-wide emergency.

 

What about the power cuts?

On Monday regulators announced a formal inquiry into whether energy utilities broke rules by pre-emptively cutting power to an estimated 2.5 million people, amid a blackouts policy debate that intensified, as wildfire risks soared.

They did not name any utilities but analysts said PG&E was responsible for the bulk of the "public safety power shut-offs", and later faced a Camp Fire guilty plea that underscored its liabilities.

The company filed for bankruptcy in January after facing hundreds of lawsuits from victims of wildfires in 2017 and 2018.

Of the 970,000 properties hit by the most recent cuts, under half had their services back by Monday, and some sought help through wildfire assistance programs, the Associated Press reported.

Despite criticism that the precautionary blackouts were too widespread and too disruptive, PG&E said more would come on Tuesday and Wednesday because further strong winds were expected.

The company said it had logged more than 20 preliminary reports of damage to its network from the most recent windstorm.

In a video posted to Twitter on Saturday, Governor Gavin Newsom said the power cuts were "infuriating everyone, and rightfully so".

 

Where are the fires now?

In Los Angeles, the Getty Fire has burned over 600 acres (242 ha) and about 10,000 buildings are in the mandatory evacuation zone.

At least eight homes have been destroyed and five others damaged.

"If you are in an evacuation zone, don't screw around," Mr Schwarzenegger tweeted. "Get out."

LA fire chief Ralph Terrazas said fire crews had been "overwhelmed" by the scale of the fires.

"They had to make some tough decisions on which houses they were able to protect," he said.

"Many times it depends on where the ember lands. I saw homes that were adjacent to homes that were totally destroyed, without any damage."

In northern California, schools remain closed in Sonoma County, where tens of thousands of homes and businesses are under threat.

Sonoma has been ravaged by the Kincade Fire, which started on Wednesday and has burned through 50,000 acres of land, fanned by the winds.

The Kincade Fire began seven minutes after a nearby power line was damaged, and power lines may have started fires according to reports, but PG&E has not yet confirmed if the power glitch started the blaze.

About 180,000 people have been ordered to evacuate, with roads around Santa Rosa north of San Francisco packed with cars as people tried to flee.

There are fears the flames could cross the 101 highway and enter areas that have not seen wildfires since the 1940s.

 

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Swiss Earthquake Service and ETH Zurich aim to make geothermal energy safer

Advanced Traffic Light System for Geothermal Safety models fracture growth and friction with rock physics, geophones, and supercomputers to predict induced seismicity during hydraulic stimulation, enabling real-time risk control for ETH Zurich and SED.

 

Key Points

ATLS uses rock physics, geophones, and HPC to forecast induced seismicity in real time during geothermal stimulation.

✅ Real-time seismic risk forecasts during hydraulic stimulation

✅ Uses rock physics, friction, and fracture modeling on HPC

✅ Supports ETH Zurich and SED field tests in Iceland and Bedretto

 

The Swiss Earthquake Service and ETH Zurich want to make geothermal energy safer, so news piece from Switzerland earlier this month. This is to be made possible by new software, including machine learning, and the computing power of supercomputers. The first geothermal tests have already been carried out in Iceland, and more will follow in the Bedretto laboratory.

In areas with volcanic activity, the conditions for operating geothermal plants are ideal. In Iceland, the Hellisheidi power plant makes an important contribution to sustainable energy use, alongside innovations like electricity from snow in cold regions.

Deep geothermal energy still has potential. This is the basis of the 2050 energy strategy. While the inexhaustible source of energy in volcanically active areas along fault zones of the earth’s crust can be tapped with comparatively little effort and, where viable, HVDC transmission used to move power to demand centers, access on the continents is often much more difficult and risky. Because the geology of Switzerland creates conditions that are more difficult for sustainable energy production.

Improve the water permeability of the rock

On one hand, you have to drill four to five kilometers deep to reach the correspondingly heated layers of earth in Switzerland. It is only at this depth that temperatures between 160 and 180 degrees Celsius can be reached, which is necessary for an economically usable water cycle. On the other hand, the problem of low permeability arises with rock at these depths. “We need a permeability of at least 10 millidarcy, but you can typically only find a thousandth of this value at a depth of four to five kilometers,” says Thomas Driesner, professor at the Institute of Geochemistry and Petrology at ETH Zurich.

In order to improve the permeability, water is pumped into the subsurface using the so-called “fracture”. The water acts against friction, any fracture surfaces shift against each other and tensions are released. This hydraulic stimulation expands fractures in the rock so that the water can circulate in the hot crust. The fractures in the earth’s crust originate from tectonic tensions, caused in Switzerland by the Adriatic plate, which moves northwards and presses against the Eurasian plate.

In addition to geothermal energy, the “Advanced Traffic Light System” could also be used in underground construction or in construction projects for the storage of carbon dioxide.

Quake due to water injection

The disadvantage of such hydraulic stimulations are vibrations, which are often so weak or cannot be perceived without measuring instruments. But that was not the case with the geothermal projects in St. Gallen 2013 and Basel 2016. A total of around 11,000 cubic meters of water were pumped into the borehole in Basel, causing the pressure to rise. Using statistical surveys, the magnitudes 2.4 and 2.9 defined two limit values ??for the maximum permitted magnitude of the earthquakes generated. If these are reached, the water supply is stopped.

In Basel, however, there was a series of vibrations after a loud bang, with a time delay there were stronger earthquakes, which startled the residents. In both cities, earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 3 have been recorded. Since then it has been clear that reaching threshold values ??determines the stop of the water discharge, but this does not guarantee safety during the actual drilling process.

Simulation during stimulation

The Swiss Seismological Service SED and the ETH Zurich are now pursuing a new approach that can be used to predict in real time, building on advances by electricity prediction specialists in Europe, during a hydraulic stimulation whether noticeable earthquakes are expected in the further course. This is to be made possible by the so-called “Advanced Traffic Light System” based on rock physics, a software developed by the SED, which carries out the analysis on a high-performance computer.

Geophones measure the ground vibrations around the borehole, which serve as indicators for the probability of noticeable earthquakes. The supercomputer then runs through millions of possible scenarios, similar to algorithms to prevent power blackouts during ransomware attacks, based on the number and type of fractures to be expected, the friction and tensions in the rock. Finally, you can filter out the scenario that best reflects the underground.

Further tests in the mountain

However, research is currently still lacking any real test facility for the system, because incorrect measurements must be eliminated and a certain data format adhered to before the calculations on the supercomputer. The first tests were carried out in Iceland last year, with more to follow in the Bedretto geothermal laboratory in late summer, where reliable backup power from fuel cell solutions can keep instrumentation running. An optimum can now be found between increasing the permeability of rock layers and an adequate water supply.

The new approach could make geothermal energy safer and ultimately help this energy source to become more accepted, while grid upgrades like superconducting cables improve efficiency. Research also sees areas of application wherever artificially caused earthquakes can occur, such as in underground mining or in the storage of carbon dioxide underground.

 

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A goodwill gesture over electricity sows discord in Lebanon

Lebanon Power Barge Controversy spotlights Karadeniz Energy's Esra Sultan, Lebanon's electricity crisis, prolonged blackouts, and sectarian politics as Amal and Hezbollah clash over Zahrani vs Jiyeh docking and allocation across regions.

 

Key Points

A political dispute over the Esra Sultan power ship, its docking, and power allocation amid Lebanon's chronic blackouts.

✅ Karadeniz Energy lent a third barge at below-market rates.

✅ Docking disputes: Zahrani refused; Jiyeh limited; Zouq connected.

✅ Amal vs Hezbollah split exposes sectarian energy politics.

 

It was supposed to be a goodwill gesture from an energy company in Turkey.

This summer, the Karadeniz Energy Group lent Lebanon a floating power station to generate electricity at below-market rates to help ease the strain on the country's woefully undermaintained power sector.

Instead, the barge's arrival opened a Pandora's box of partisan mudslinging in a country hobbled by political sectarianism and dysfunction.

There have been rows over where it should dock, how to allocate its 235 megawatts of power, and even what to call the barge, echoing controversies like the Maine electric line debate that pit local politics against energy needs.

It has even driven a wedge between Lebanon's two dominant parties among Shiite Muslims: Amal and the militant group Hezbollah.

Amal, which has held the parliament speaker's seat since 1992, revealed sensationally last week it had refused to allow the boat to dock in a port in the predominantly Shiite south, even though it is one of the most underserved regions of Lebanon.

Power outages in the south can stretch on for more than 12 hours a day, much like the Gaza electricity crisis, according to regional observers.

Hezbollah, which normally stands pat with Amal in political matters, issued an exceptional statement that it had nothing to do with the matter of the barge at Zahrani port. A Hezbollah lawmaker went further to say his party disagreed on the issue with Amal.

Ali Hassan Khalil, Lebanon's Finance Minister and a leading Amal party member, said southerners wanted a permanent power station, not a stop-gap solution, in an implied dig at the rival Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian party that runs the Energy Ministry.

But critics seized on the statement as confirmation that Amal's leaders were in bed with the operators of private generators, who have been making fortunes selling electricity during blackouts at many times the state price.

"For decades there's been nothing stopping them from building a power plant," said Mohammad Obeid, a former Amal party official, in an interview with Lebanon's Al Jadeed TV station.

"Now there's a barge that's coming for three months to provide a few more hours of electricity -- and that's the issue?"

Hassan Khalil, reached by phone, refused to comment.

Nabih Berri, Amal's chief and Lebanon's parliament speaker, who has long been the subject of critical coverage from Al Jadeed's, sued the TV channel for libel on Wednesday for its reporting.

Energy Minister Cesar Abi Khalil, a Christian, lashed out at Amal, saying the ministry even changed the barge's name from Ayse, Turkish for Aisha, a name associated in Lebanon with Sunnis, to Esra Sultan, which does not carry any Shiite or Sunni connotations, to try to get it to dock in Zahrani.

Karadeniz said the barge was renamed "out of courtesy and respect to local customs and sensitivities."

"Ayse is a very common Turkish name, where such preferences are not as sensitive as in Lebanon," it said in a statement to The Associated Press.

Finally, on July 18, the barge docked in Jiyeh, a harbour south of Beirut but north of Zahrani, and in a religiously mixed Muslim area.

But two weeks later it was unmoored again, after Abi Khalil, the energy minister, said the infrastructure at Jiyeh could only handle 30 megawatts of the Esra Sultan's 235 capacity, and upgrades such as burying subsea cables are expensive.

With Zahrani closed to the Esra Sultan, it could only go to Zouq Mikhael, a port in the Christian-dominated Kesrouan region in the north, where it was plugged to the grid Tuesday night, giving the region almost 24 hours of electricity a day.

Lebanon has been contending with rolling blackouts since the days of its 1975-1990 civil war. Successive governments have failed to agree on a permanent solution for the chronic electricity failures, largely because of profiteering, endemic corruption and lack of political will, despite periodic pushes for electricity sector reform in Lebanon over the years.

In 2013, the Energy Ministry contracted with Karadeniz to buy electricity from a pair of its barges, which are still docked in Jiyeh and Zouq Mikhael.

This summer, Abi Khalil signed a new contract with Karadeniz to keep the barges for another three years. As part of the deal, Karadeniz agreed to lend Lebanon the third barge, the Esra Sultan, to produce electricity for three months at no cost - Lebanon would just have to pay for the fuel.

The company said Lebanon's internal squabbles do not affect how long the Esra Sultan would stay in Lebanon, even amid wider sector volatility and the pandemic's impact highlighted in a recent financial update. It arrived on July 18 and it will leave on Oct. 18, it said.

 

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Alberta Advances Electricity Plans with Rate of Last Resort

Alberta Rate of Last Resort provides a baseline electricity price, boosting energy reliability, affordability, and consumer protection amid market volatility, aligning with grid modernization, integration, pricing transparency, and oversight from the Alberta Utilities Commission.

 

Key Points

A fallback electricity rate ensuring affordable, reliable power and consumer protection during market volatility.

✅ Guarantees a stable baseline price when markets spike

✅ Supports vulnerable customers lacking competitive offers

✅ Overseen by AUC to balance protection and competition

 

The Alberta government has announced significant strides in its electricity market reforms, unveiling a new plan under new electricity rules that aims to enhance energy reliability and affordability for consumers. This initiative, highlighted by the introduction of a "rate of last resort," is a critical response to ongoing challenges in the province's electricity sector, particularly following recent market volatility and increasing consumer concerns about rising electricity prices across the province.

Understanding the Rate of Last Resort

The "rate of last resort" (RLR) is designed to ensure that all Albertans have access to affordable electricity, even when they face challenges securing a competitive rate in the open market. This measure is particularly beneficial for those who may not have the means or the knowledge to navigate complex energy contracts, such as low-income families or seniors.

Under this new plan, the RLR will serve as a safety net, guaranteeing a stable and predictable rate for customers who find themselves without a competitive provider. This move is seen as a crucial step in addressing the needs of vulnerable populations who might otherwise be at risk of being shut out of the energy market.

Market Volatility and Consumer Protection

Alberta's electricity market has faced significant fluctuations over the past few years, and is headed for a reshuffle as policymakers respond to unpredictability in pricing and service availability. The rise in energy costs has caused distress among consumers, with many advocating for stronger protections against sudden price hikes.

The government's recent decision to implement the RLR is a direct acknowledgment of these concerns. By creating a baseline rate, officials aim to provide consumers with peace of mind, knowing that there is a fallback option should market conditions turn unfavorable. This initiative complements other measures aimed at enhancing consumer protections, including improved transparency in pricing, the consumer price cap on power bills being advanced, and the regulation of energy suppliers.

Broader Implications for Alberta’s Energy Landscape

This plan is not only about consumer protection; it also represents a broader shift towards a more sustainable and stable energy market in Alberta, aligning with proposed electricity market changes under consideration. The introduction of the RLR is part of a comprehensive strategy that includes investments in renewable energy and infrastructure improvements. By modernizing the grid and promoting cleaner energy sources, the government aims to reduce dependency on fossil fuels while maintaining reliability and affordability.

Additionally, this move aligns with the province's goals to meet climate targets and transition to a more sustainable energy future as Alberta is changing how it produces and pays for electricity through policy updates. As the demand for clean energy grows, Alberta is positioning itself to be a leader in this transformation, appealing to both residents and businesses committed to sustainability.

Public and Industry Reactions

The announcement has garnered mixed reactions from various stakeholders. While consumer advocacy groups have largely praised the government's efforts to protect consumers and ensure affordable electricity, some industry experts express concerns about potential long-term impacts on competition, arguing the market needs competition to remain dynamic. They argue that while the RLR provides immediate relief, it could disincentivize companies from offering competitive rates, leading to a less dynamic market in the future.

The Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) is expected to play a pivotal role in overseeing the implementation of the RLR, ensuring that it operates effectively and that any unintended consequences are addressed swiftly. This regulatory oversight will be crucial in balancing consumer protection with the need for a competitive energy market.

Conclusion

As Alberta forges ahead with its electricity market reforms, the introduction of the rate of last resort marks a significant step in enhancing consumer protection and ensuring energy affordability. While challenges remain, the government's proactive approach reflects a commitment to addressing the needs of all Albertans, particularly those most vulnerable to market fluctuations.

In this evolving energy landscape, the RLR will serve not only as a safety net for consumers but also as a foundation for a more sustainable and reliable electricity system. As Alberta continues to adapt to changing energy demands and climate considerations, the effectiveness of these measures will be closely monitored, shaping the future of the province’s electricity market.

 

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Ukraine Leans on Imports to Keep the Lights On

Ukraine Electricity Imports surge to record levels as EU neighbors bolster grid stability amid Russian strikes, supporting energy security, preventing blackouts, and straining cross-border transmission capacity while Ukraine rebuilds damaged infrastructure and diversifies with renewables.

 

Key Points

Emergency EU power purchases stabilizing Ukraine’s grid after war damage.

✅ Record 19,000 MWh per day from EU interconnectors

✅ Supports grid stability and blackout prevention

✅ Cost and transmission upgrades challenge sustainability

 

Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine has extended far beyond the battlefield, with critical infrastructure becoming a target. Ukraine's once-robust energy system has sustained significant damage amid energy ceasefire violations and Russian missile and drone strikes. To cope with these disruptions and maintain power supplies for Ukrainian citizens, the country is turning to record-breaking electricity imports from neighboring European nations.

Prior to the war, Ukraine enjoyed a self-sufficient energy sector, even exporting electricity to neighboring countries. However, targeted attacks on power plants and transmission lines have crippled generation capacity. The situation is particularly dire in eastern and southern Ukraine, where ongoing fighting has caused extensive damage.

Faced with this energy crisis, Ukraine is looking to Europe for a lifeline. The country's energy ministry has announced plans to import a staggering amount of electricity – exceeding 19,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) per day – to prepare for winter and stabilize supplies. This surpasses the previous record set in March 2024 and represents a significant increase in Ukraine's reliance on external power sources.

Several European nations are stepping up to support Ukraine. Countries like Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, which maintains quiet energy ties with Russia today, and Moldova have agreed to provide emergency electricity supplies. These imports will help stabilize Ukraine's power grid and prevent widespread blackouts, especially during peak consumption hours.

The reliance on imports, however, presents its own set of challenges. Firstly, the sheer volume of electricity needed puts a strain on the capacity of neighboring grids. Upgrading and expanding transmission infrastructure will be crucial to ensure a smooth flow of electricity. Secondly, the cost of imported electricity can be higher than domestically generated power amid price hikes and instability globally, placing additional pressure on Ukraine's already strained finances.

Beyond these immediate concerns, the long-term implications of relying on external energy sources need to be considered. Ukraine's long-term goal is to rebuild its own energy infrastructure and regain energy independence. International assistance, including energy security support measures, will be crucial in this endeavor. Financial aid and technical expertise can help Ukraine repair damaged power plants, diversify its energy mix through further investment in renewables, and develop more resilient grid infrastructure.

The war in Ukraine has underscored the importance of energy security. A nation's dependence on a single source of energy, be it domestic or foreign, leaves it vulnerable to disruption, as others consider national security and fossil fuels in their own policies. For Ukraine, diversification and building a more resilient energy infrastructure are key takeaways from this crisis.

The international community also has a role to play. Supporting Ukraine's energy sector not only helps the nation weather the current crisis but also strengthens European energy security as a whole, where concerns over Europe's energy nightmare remain pronounced. A stable and independent Ukraine, less reliant on Russian energy, contributes to a more secure and prosperous Europe.

As the war in Ukraine continues, the battle for energy security rages on. While the immediate focus is on keeping the lights on through imports, the long-term goal for Ukraine is to rebuild a stronger, more resilient energy sector that can power the nation's future. The international community's support will be crucial in helping Ukraine achieve this goal.

 

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How Canada can capitalize on U.S. auto sector's abrupt pivot to electric vehicles

Canadian EV Manufacturing is accelerating with GM, Ford, and Project Arrow, integrating cross-border supply chains, battery production, rare-earths like lithium and cobalt, autonomous tech, and home charging to drive clean mobility and decarbonization.

 

Key Points

Canadian EV manufacturing spans electric and autonomous vehicles, domestic batteries, and integrated US-Canada trade.

✅ GM and Ford retool plants for EVs and autonomous production

✅ Project Arrow showcases Canadian zero-emission supply capabilities

✅ Lithium, cobalt, and battery hubs target cross-border resilience

 

The storied North American automotive industry, the ultimate showcase of Canada’s high-tensile trade ties with the United States and emerging Canada-U.S. collaboration on EVs momentum, is about to navigate a dramatic hairpin turn.

But as the Big Three veer into the all-electric, autonomous era, some Canadians want to seize the moment and take the wheel.

“There’s a long shadow between the promise and the execution, but all the pieces are there,” says Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association.

“We went from a marriage on the rocks to one that both partners are committed to. It could be the best second chapter ever.”

Volpe is referring specifically to GM, which announced late last month an ambitious plan to convert its entire portfolio of vehicles to an all-electric platform by 2035.

But that decision is just part of a cascading transformation across the industry, marking an EV inflection point with existential ramifications for one of the most tightly integrated cross-border manufacturing and supply-chain relationships in the world.

China is already working hard to become the “source of a new way” to power vehicles, President Joe Biden warned last week.

“We just have to step up.”

Canada has both the resources and expertise to do the same, says Volpe, whose ambitious Project Arrow concept — a homegrown zero-emissions vehicle named for the 1950s-era Avro interceptor jet — is designed to showcase exactly that, as recent EV assembly deals in Canada underscore.

“We’re going to prove to the market, we’re going to prove to the (manufacturers) around the planet, that everything that goes into your zero-emission vehicle can be made or sourced here in Canada,” he says.

“If somebody wants to bring what we did over the line and make 100,000 of them a year, I’ll hand it to them.”

GM earned the ire of Canadian auto workers in 2018 by announcing the closure of its assembly plant in Oshawa, Ont. It later resurrected the facility with a $170-million investment to retool it for autonomous vehicles.

“It was, ‘You closed Oshawa, how dare you?’ And I was one of the ‘How dare you’ people,” Volpe says.

“Well, now that they’ve reopened Oshawa, you sit there and you open your eyes to the commitment that General Motors made.”

Ford, too, has entered the fray, promising $1.8 billion to retool its sprawling landmark facility in Oakville, Ont., to build EVs.

It’s a leap of faith of sorts, considering what market experts say is ongoing consumer doubt about EVs and EV supply shortages that drive wait times.

“Range anxiety” — the persistent fear of a depleted battery at the side of the road — remains a major concern, even though it’s less of a problem than most people think.

Consulting firm Deloitte Canada, which has been tracking automotive consumer trends for more than a decade, found three-quarters of future EV buyers it surveyed planned to charge their vehicles at home overnight.

“The difference between what is a perceived issue in a consumer’s mind and what is an actual issue is actually quite negligible,” Ryan Robinson, Deloitte’s automotive research leader, says in an interview.

“It’s still an issue, full stop, and that’s something that the industry is going to have to contend with.”

So, too, is price, especially with the end of the COVID-19 pandemic still a long way off. Deloitte’s latest survey, released last month, found 45 per cent of future buyers in Canada hope to spend less than $35,000 — a tall order when most base electric-vehicle models hover between $40,000 and $45,000.

“You put all of that together and there’s still, despite the electric-car revolution hype, some major challenges that a lot of stakeholders that touch the automotive industry face,” Robinson says.

“It’s not just government, it’s not just automakers, but there are a variety of stakeholders that have a role to play in making sure that Canadians are ready to make the transition over to electric mobility.”

With protectionism no longer a dirty word in the United States and Biden promising to prioritize American workers and suppliers, the Canadian government’s job remains the same as it ever was: making sure the U.S. understands Canada’s mission-critical role in its own economic priorities.

“We’re both going to be better off on both sides of the border, as we have been in the past, if we orient ourselves toward this global competition as one force,” says Gerald Butts, vice-chairman of the political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group and a former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“It served us extraordinarily well in the past … and I have no reason to believe it won’t serve us well in the future.”

Last month, GM announced a billion-dollar plan to build its new all-electric BrightDrop EV600 van in Ingersoll, Ont., at Canada’s first large-scale EV manufacturing plant for delivery vehicles.

That investment, Volpe says, assumes Canada will take the steps necessary to help build a homegrown battery industry — with projects such as a new Niagara-region battery plant pointing the way — drawing on the country’s rare-earth resources like lithium and cobalt that are waiting to be extracted in northern Ontario, Quebec and elsewhere.

Given that the EV industry is still in his infancy, the free market alone won’t be enough to ensure those resources can be extracted and developed, he says.

“General Motors made a billion-dollar bet on Canada because it’s going to assume that the Canadian government — this one or the next one — is going to commit” to building that business.

Such an investment would pay dividends well beyond the auto sector, considering the federal Liberal government’s commitment to lowering greenhouse gas-emissions, including a 2035 EV mandate, and meeting targets set out in the Paris climate accord.

“If you make investments in renewable energy and utility storage using battery technology, you can build an industry at scale that the auto industry can borrow,” Volpe says.

Major manufacturing, retail and office facilities would be able to use that technology to help “shave the peak” off Canada’s GHG emissions and achieve those targets, all the while paving the way for a self-sufficient electric-vehicle industry.

“You’d be investing in the exact same technology you’d use in a car.”

There’s one problem, says Robinson: the lithium-ion batteries on roads right now might not be where the industry ultimately lands.

“We’re not done with with battery technology,” Robinson says. “What you don’t want to do is invest in a technology that is that is rapidly evolving, and could potentially become obsolete going forward.”

Fuel cells — energy-efficient, hydrogen-powered units that work like batteries, but without the need for constant recharging — continue to be part of the conversation, he adds.

“The amount of investment is huge, and you want to be sure that you’re making the right decision, so you don’t find yourself behind the curve just as all that capacity is coming online.”

 

 

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