Q&A: AESO discusses Harmattan Energy Centre Connection

Global Decarbonization Strategies align renewable energy, electrification, clean air policies, IMO sulfur cap, LNG fuels, and the EU 2050 roadmap to cut carbon intensity and meet Paris Agreement targets via EVs and efficiency.

Key Points

Frameworks that cut emissions via renewables, EVs, efficiency, cleaner marine fuels, and EU policy roadmaps.

✅ Renewables scale as wind and solar outcompete new coal and gas.

✅ Electrification of transport grows as EV costs fall and charging expands.

✅ IMO 2020 sulfur cap and LNG shift cut shipping emissions and particulates.

Are we doing enough to save the planet? Silly question. The latest prognosis from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made for gloomy reading. Fundamental to the Paris Agreement is the target of keeping global average temperatures from rising beyond 2°C. The UN argues that radical measures are needed, and investment incentives for clean electricity are seen as critical by many leaders to accelerate progress to meet that target.

Renewable power and electrification of transport are the pillars of decarbonization. It’s well underway in renewables - the collapse in costs make wind and solar generation competitive with new build coal and gas.

Renewables’ share of the global power market will triple by 2040 from its current level of 6% according to our forecasts.

The consumption side is slower, awaiting technological breakthrough and informed by efforts in countries such as New Zealand’s electricity transition to replace fossil fuels with electricity. The lower battery costs needed for electric vehicles (EVs) to compete head on and displace internal combustion engine (ICE)  cars are some years away. These forces only start to have a significant impact on global carbon intensity in the 2030s. Our forecasts fall well short of the 2°C target, as does the IEA’s base case scenario.

Yet we can’t just wait for new technology to come to the rescue. There are encouraging signs that society sees the need to deal with a deteriorating environment. Three areas of focus came out in discussion during Wood Mackenzie’s London Energy Forum - unrelated, different in scope and scale, each pointing the way forward.

First, clean air in cities.  China has shown how to clean up a local environment quickly. The government reacted to poor air quality in Beijing and other major cities by closing older coal power plants and forcing energy intensive industry and the residential sector to shift away from coal. The country’s return on investment will include a substantial future health care dividend.

European cities are introducing restrictions on diesel cars to improve air quality. London’s 2017 “toxicity charge” is a precursor of an Ultra-Low Emission Zone in 2019, and aligns with UK net-zero policy changes that affect transport planning, to be extended across much of the city by 2020. Paris wants to ban diesel cars from the city centre by 2025 and ICE vehicles by 2030. Barcelona, Madrid, Hamburg and Stuttgart are hatching similar plans.

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Second, desulphurisation of global shipping. High sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) meets around 3.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of the total marine market of 5 million b/d. A maximum of 3.5% sulphur content is allowed currently. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) implements a 0.5% limit on all shipping in 2020, dramatically reducing the release of sulphur oxides into the atmosphere.

Some ships will switch to very low sulphur fuel oil, of which only around 1.4 million b/d will be available in 2020. Others will have to choose between investing in scrubbers or buying premium-priced low sulphur marine gas oil.

Longer-term, lower carbon-intensity gas is a winner as liquefied natural gas becomes fuel of choice for many newbuilds. Marine LNG demand climbs from near zero to 50 million tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2040 on our forecasts, behind only China, India and Japan as a demand centre. LNG will displace over 1 million b/d of oil demand in shipping by 2040.

Third, Europe’s radical decarbonisation plans. Already in the vanguard of emissions reductions policy, the European Commission is proposing to reduce carbon emissions for new cars and vans by 30% by 2030 versus 2020. The targets come with incentives for car manufacturers linked to the uptake of EVs.

The 2050 roadmap, presently at the concept stage, envisages a far more demanding regime, with EU electricity plans for 2050 implying a much larger power system. The mooted 80% reduction in emissions compared with 1990 will embrace all sectors. Power and transport are already moving in this direction, but the legacy fuel mix in many other sectors will be disrupted, too.

Near zero-energy buildings and homes might be possible with energy efficiency improvements, renewables and heat pumps. Electrification, recycling and bioenergy could reduce fossil fuel use in energy intensive sectors like steel and aluminium, and Europe’s oil majors going electric illustrates how incumbents are adapting. Some sectors will cite the risk decarbonisation poses to Europe’s global competitiveness. If change is to come, industry will need to build new partnerships with society to meet these targets.

The 2050 roadmap signals the ambition and will be game changing for Europe if it is adopted. It would provide a template for a global roll out that would go a long way toward meeting UN’s concerns.

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China Solar Grid Parity signals unsubsidized industrial and commercial PV, rooftop solar, and feed-in tariff guarantees competing with grid electricity and coal power prices, driven by cost declines, policy reform, and technology advances.

Key Points

Point where PV in China meets or beats grid electricity, enabling unsubsidized industrial and commercial solar.

✅ City-level analysis shows cheaper PV than grid in 344 cities.

✅ 22% can beat coal power prices without subsidies.

✅ Soft-cost, permitting, and finance reforms speed uptake.

Solar power has become cheaper than grid electricity across China, a development that could boost the prospects of industrial and commercial solar, according to a new study.

Projects in every city analysed by the researchers could be built today without subsidy, at lower prices than those supplied by the grid, and around a fifth could also compete with the nation’s coal electricity prices.

They say grid parity – the “tipping point” at which solar generation costs the same as electricity from the grid – represents a key stage in the expansion of renewable energy sources.

While previous studies of nations such as Germany, where solar-plus-storage costs are already undercutting conventional power, and the US have concluded that solar could achieve grid parity by 2020 in most developed countries, some have suggested China would have to wait decades.

However, the new paper published in Nature Energy concludes a combination of technological advances, cost declines and government support has helped make grid parity a reality in Chinese today.

Despite these results, grid parity may not drive a surge in the uptake of solar, a leading analyst tells Carbon Brief.

Competitive pricing

China’s solar industry has rapidly expanded from a small, rural program in the 1990s to the largest in the world, with record 2016 solar growth underscoring the trend. It is both the biggest generator of solar power and the biggest installer of solar panels.

The installed capacity of solar panels in China in 2018 amounted to more than a third of the global total, with the country accounting for half the world’s solar additions that year.

Since 2000, the Chinese government has unveiled over 100 policies supporting the PV industry, and technological progress has helped make solar power less expensive. This has led to the cost of electricity from solar power dropping, as demonstrated in the chart below.

In their paper, Prof Jinyue Yan of Sweden’s Royal Institute of Technology and his colleagues explain that this “stunning” performance has been accelerated by government subsidies, but has also seen China overinvesting in what some describe as a clean energy's dirty secret of “redundant construction and overcapacity”. The authors write:

“Recently, the Chinese government has been trying to lead the PV industry onto a more sustainable and efficient development track by tightening incentive policies with China’s 531 New Policy.”

The researchers say the subsidy cuts under this policy in 2018 were a signal that the government wanted to make the industry less dependent on state support and shift its focus from scale to quality.

This, they say, has “brought the industry to a crossroads”, with discussions taking place in China about when solar electricity generation could achieve grid parity.

In their analysis, Yan and his team examined the prospects for building industrial and commercial solar projects without state support in 344 cities across China, attempting to gauge where or whether grid parity could be achieved.

The team estimated the total lifetime price of solar energy systems in all of these cities, taking into account net costs and profits, including project investments, electricity output and trading prices.

Besides establishing that installations in every city tested could supply cheaper electricity than the grid, they also compared solar to the price of coal-generated power. They found that 22% of the cities could build solar systems capable of producing electricity at cheaper prices than coal.

Embracing solar

Declining costs of solar technology, particularly crystalline silicon modules, mean the trend in China is also playing out around the world, with offshore wind cost declines reinforcing the shift. In May, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) said that by the beginning of next year, grid parity could become the global norm for the solar industry, and shifting price dynamics in Northern Europe illustrate the market impact.

Kingsmill Bond, an energy strategist at Carbon Tracker, says this is the first in-depth study he has seen looking at city-level solar costs in China, and is encouraged by this indication of solar becoming ever-more competitive, as seen in Germany's recent solar boost during the energy crisis. He tells Carbon Brief:

“The conclusion that industrial and commercial solar is cheaper than grid electricity means that the workshop of the world can embrace solar. Without subsidy and its distorting impacts, and driven by commercial gain.”

On the other hand, Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at BloombergNEF, says the findings revealed by Yan and his team are “fairly old news” as the competitive price of rooftop solar in China has been known about for at least a year.

She notes that this does not mean there has been a huge accompanying rollout of industrial and commercial solar, and says this is partly because of the long-term thinking required for investment to be seen as worthwhile.

The lifetime of a PV system tends to be around two decades, whereas the average lifespan of a Chinese company is only around eight years, according to Chase. Furthermore, there is an even simpler explanation, as she explains to Carbon Brief:

“There’s also the fact that companies just can’t be bothered a lot of the time – there are roofs all over Europe where solar could probably save money, but people are not jumping to do it.”

According to Chase, a “much more exciting” development came earlier this year, when the Chinese government developed a policy for “subsidy-free solar”.

This involved guaranteeing the current coal-fired power price to solar plants for 20 years, creating what is essentially a low feed-in tariff and leading to what she describes as “a lot of nice, low-risk projects”.

As for the beneficial effects of grid parity, based on how things have played out in countries where it has already been achieved, Chase says it does not necessarily mean a significant uptake of solar power will follow:

“Grid parity solar is never as popular as subsidised solar, and ironically you don’t generally have a rush to build grid parity solar because you may as well wait until next year and get cheaper solar.”

Policy proposals

In their paper, Yan and his team lay out policy changes they think would help provide an economic incentive, in combination with grid parity, to encourage the uptake of solar power systems.

Technology costs may have fallen for smaller solar projects of the type being deployed on the rooftops of businesses, but they note that the so-called “soft costs” – including installation and maintenance – tend to be “very impactful”.

Specifically, they say aspects such as financing, land acquisition and grid accommodation, which make up over half the total cost, could be cut down:

“Labour costs are not significant [in China] because of the relatively low wages of direct labour and related installation overhead. Customer acquisition has largely been achieved in China by the mature market, with customers’ familiarity with PV systems, and with the perception that PV systems are a reliable technology. However, policymakers should consider strengthening the targeted policies on the following soft costs.”

Among the measures they suggest are new financing schemes, an effort to “streamline” the complicated procedures and taxes involved, and more geographically targeted government policies, alongside innovations like peer-to-peer energy sharing that can improve utilization.

As their analysis showed the price of solar electricity had fallen further in some cities than others, the researchers recommend targeting future subsidies at the cities that are performing less well – keeping costs to a minimum while still providing support when it is most needed.

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Israel Electricity Reform Competition opens the supply segment to private suppliers, challenges IEC price controls, and promises consumer choice, marginal discounts, and market liberalization amid natural gas generation and infrastructure remaining with IEC.

Key Points

Policy opening 40% of supply to private vendors, enabling consumer choice and small discounts while IEC retains the grid.

✅ 40% of retail supply opened to private electricity suppliers

✅ IEC keeps meters, lines; tariffs still regulated by the authority

✅ Expected discounts near 7%, not dramatic price cuts initially

"See the pseudo-reform in the electricity sector: no lower prices, no opening the market to competition, and no choice of electricity suppliers, with a high rate for consumers despite natural gas." This is an advertisement by the Private Power Producers Forum that is appearing everywhere: Facebook, the Internet, billboards, and the press.

Is it possible that the biggest reform in the economy with a cost estimated by Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) (TASE: ELEC.B22) at NIS 7 billion is really a pseudo-reform? In contrast to the assertions by the private electricity producers, who are supposedly worried about our wallets and want to bring down the cost of electricity for us, the reform will open a segment of electricity supply to competition, as agreed in the final discussions about the reform. No less than 40% of this segment will be removed from IEC's exclusive responsibility and pass to private hands.

This means that in the not-too-distant future, one million households in Israel will be able to choose between different electricity suppliers. IEC will retain the infrastructure, with its meter and power lines, but for the first time, the supplier who sends the monthly bill to our home can be a private concern.

Up until now, the only regulatory agency determining the electricity rate in Israel was the Public Utilities Authority (electricity), i.e. the state. Now, in the framework of the reform, as a result of opening the supply segment to competition, private electricity producers will be able to offer a lower rate than IEC's, with mechanisms like electricity auctions shown to cut costs in some markets, while IEC's rate will still be controlled by the Public Utilities Authority (electricity).

This situation differs from the situation in almost all European countries, where the electricity market is fully open to competition and the EU is pursuing an electricity market revamp to address pricing challenges, with no electricity price controls and free switching by consumers between electricity producers, just as in the mobile phone market. This measure has not lowered electricity prices in Europe, where rates are higher than in Israel, which is in the bottom third of OECD countries in its electricity rate.

Regardless of reports, supply will be opened to competition and we will be able to choose between electricity suppliers in the future. Are the private electricity producers nevertheless right when they say that the electricity sector will not be opened to "real competition"?

What is obviously necessary is for the private producers to offer a substantially lower rate than IEC in order to attract as many new customers as possible and win their trust. Can the private producers offer a significantly lower rate than IEC? The answer is no, at least not in the near future. The teams handling the negotiations are aware of this. "The private supplier's price will not be significantly cheaper than IEC's controlled price; there will be marginal discounts," a senior government source explains. "What is involved here is another electricity intermediary, so it will not contribute to competition and lowering the price," he added.

There are already private electricity producers supplying electricity to large business customers - factories, shopping malls, and so forth - at a 7% discount. The rest of the electricity that they produce is sold to the system manager. When supply is opened to competition, it can be assumed that the private suppliers will also be able to offer a similar discount to private consumers.

Will a 7% discount cause a home consumer to leave reliable and familiar IEC for a private producer, given evidence from retail electricity competition in other markets? This is hard to know.

#google#

Why cannot private electricity producers offer a larger discount that will really break the monopoly, as their advertisement says they want to do? Chen Herzog, chief economist and partner at BDO Consulting, which is advising the Private Power Producers Forum, says, "Competition in supply requires the construction of competitive power plants that can compete and offer cheaper electricity.

"The power plants that IEC will sell in the reform, which will go on selling electricity to IEC, are outmoded, inefficient, and non-competitive. In addition, the producer will have to continue employing IEC workers in the purchased plants for at least five years. The producer will generate electricity in IEC power stations with IEC employees and additional overhead of a private producer, with factors such as cost allocation further shaping end-user rates. This amounts to being an IEC subcontractor in production. There is no saving on costs, so there will be no surplus to deduct from the consumer price," he adds.

The idea of opening supply to electricity market competition on such a large scale sounds promising, but saving on electricity for consumers still looks a long way off.

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IVECO BUS hydrogen and electric buses in France accelerate clean mobility, zero-emission public transport, fleet electrification, and fuel cell adoption, with battery-electric ranges, fast charging, hydrogen refueling, lower TCO, and high passenger comfort in cities.

Key Points

Zero-emission buses using battery-electric and fuel cell tech, cutting TCO with fast refueling and urban-ready range.

✅ Zero tailpipe emissions, lower noise, improved air quality

✅ Fast charging and rapid hydrogen refueling infrastructure

✅ Lower TCO via reduced fuel and maintenance costs

IVECO BUS is making significant strides in the French public transportation sector, recently securing contracts for the delivery of hydrogen and battery electric buses. This development underscores the growing commitment of cities and regions in France to transition to cleaner, more sustainable public transportation options, even as electric bus adoption challenges persist. With these new contracts, IVECO BUS is poised to strengthen its position as a leader in the electric mobility market.

Expanding the Green Bus Fleet

The contracts involve the supply of various models of IVECO's hydrogen and electric buses, highlighting a strategic shift towards sustainable transport solutions. France has been proactive in its efforts to reduce carbon emissions and promote environmentally friendly transportation. As part of this initiative, many local authorities are investing in clean bus fleets, which has opened up substantial opportunities for manufacturers like IVECO.

These contracts will provide multiple French cities with advanced vehicles designed to minimize environmental impact while maintaining high performance and passenger comfort. The move towards hydrogen and battery electric buses reflects a broader trend in public transportation, where cities are increasingly adopting green technologies, with lessons from TTC's electric bus fleet informing best practices to meet both regulatory requirements and public demand for cleaner air.

The Role of Hydrogen and Battery Electric Technology

Hydrogen and battery electric buses represent two key technologies in the transition to sustainable transport. Battery electric buses are known for their zero tailpipe emissions, making them ideal for urban environments where air quality is a pressing concern, as demonstrated by the TTC battery-electric rollout in North America. IVECO's battery electric models come equipped with advanced features, including fast charging capabilities and longer ranges, making them suitable for various operational needs.

On the other hand, hydrogen buses offer the advantage of rapid refueling and extended range, addressing some of the limitations associated with battery electric vehicles, as seen with fuel cell buses in Mississauga deployments across transit networks. IVECO’s hydrogen buses utilize cutting-edge fuel cell technology, allowing them to operate efficiently in urban and intercity routes. This flexibility positions them as a viable solution for public transport authorities aiming to diversify their fleets.

Economic and Environmental Benefits

The adoption of hydrogen and battery electric buses is not only beneficial for the environment but also presents economic opportunities. By investing in these technologies, local governments can reduce operating costs associated with traditional diesel buses. Electric and hydrogen buses generally have lower fuel costs and require less maintenance, resulting in long-term savings.

Furthermore, the transition to cleaner buses can help stimulate local economies. As cities invest in electric mobility, new jobs will be created in manufacturing, maintenance, and infrastructure development, such as charging stations and hydrogen fueling networks, including the UK bus charging hub model, which supports large-scale operations. This shift can have a positive ripple effect, contributing to overall economic growth while fostering a cleaner environment.

IVECO BUS's Commitment to Sustainability

IVECO BUS's recent successes in France align with the company’s broader commitment to sustainability and innovation. As part of the CNH Industrial group, IVECO is dedicated to advancing green technologies and reducing the carbon footprint of public transportation. The company has been at the forefront of developing environmentally friendly vehicles, and these new contracts further reinforce its leadership position in the market.

Moreover, IVECO is investing in research and development to enhance the performance and efficiency of its electric and hydrogen buses. This commitment to innovation ensures that the company remains competitive in a rapidly evolving market while meeting the changing needs of public transport authorities.

Future Prospects

As more cities in France and across Europe commit to sustainable transportation, including initiatives like the Berlin zero-emission bus initiative, the demand for hydrogen and battery electric buses is expected to grow. IVECO BUS is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, with a diverse range of products that cater to various operational requirements.

The successful implementation of these contracts will likely encourage other regions to follow suit, paving the way for a greener future in public transportation. As IVECO continues to innovate and expand its offerings, alongside developments like Volvo electric trucks in Europe, it sets a precedent for the industry, illustrating how commitment to sustainability can drive business success.

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Manitoba Crypto Mining Electricity Pause signals a moratorium to manage grid strain, Manitoba Hydro capacity, infrastructure costs, and electricity rates, while policymakers evaluate sustainable energy demand, and planning for data centers and blockchain operations.

Key Points

A temporary halt on mining power hookups in Manitoba to assess grid impacts, protect rates, and plan sustainable use.

✅ Applies only to new service requests; existing sites unaffected

✅ Addresses grid strain, infrastructure costs, electricity rates

✅ Enables review with Manitoba Hydro for sustainable policy

The Manitoba government has temporarily suspended approving new electricity service connections for cryptocurrency mining operations, a step similar to BC Hydro's suspension seen in a neighboring province.

The Original Pause

The pause was initially imposed in November 2022 due to concerns that the rapid influx of cryptocurrency mining operations could place significant strain on the province's electrical grid. Manitoba Hydro, the province's primary electric utility, which has also faced legal scrutiny in the Sycamore Energy lawsuit, warned that unregulated expansion of the industry could necessitate billions of dollars in infrastructure investments, potentially driving up electricity rates for Manitobans.

The Extended Pause Offers Time for Review

The extension of the pause is meant to provide the government and Manitoba Hydro with more time to assess the situation thoroughly and develop a long-term solution addressing the challenges and opportunities presented by cryptocurrency mining, including evaluating emerging options such as modular nuclear reactors that other jurisdictions are studying. The government has stated its commitment to ensuring that the long-term impacts of the industry are understood and don't unintentionally harm other electricity customers.

What Does the Pause Mean?

The pause does not affect existing cryptocurrency operations but prevents the establishment of new ones.  It applies specifically to requests for electricity service that haven't yet resulted in agreements to construct infrastructure or supply electricity, and it comes amid regional policy shifts like Alberta ending its renewable moratorium that also affect grid planning.

Concerns About Energy Demands

Cryptocurrency mining involves running high-powered computers around the clock to solve complex mathematical problems. This process is incredibly energy-intensive. Globally, the energy consumption of cryptocurrency networks has drawn scrutiny for its environmental impact, with examples such as Iceland's mining power use illustrating the scale. In Manitoba, concern focuses on potentially straining the electrical grid and making it difficult for Manitoba Hydro to plan for future growth.

Other Jurisdictions Taking Similar Steps

Manitoba is not alone in its cautionary approach to cryptocurrency mining. Several other regions and utilities have implemented restrictions or are exploring limitations on how cryptocurrency miners can access electricity, including moves by Russia to ban mining amid power deficits. This reflects a growing awareness among policymakers about the potentially destabilizing impact this industry could have on power grids and electricity markets.

Finding a Sustainable Path Forward

Manitoba Hydro has stated that it is open to working with cryptocurrency operations but emphasizes the need to do so in a way that protects existing ratepayers and ensures a stable and reliable electricity system for all Manitobans, while recognizing market uncertainties highlighted by Alberta wind project challenges in a neighboring province. The government's extension of the pause signifies its intention to find a responsible path forward, balancing the potential for economic development with the necessity of safeguarding the province's power supply.

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National Grid Demand Flexibility Service helps stabilise the UK grid during tight supply, offering discounts for smart meter users who shift peak-time electricity use, reducing power cut risks amid low wind and import constraints.

Key Points

A National Grid scheme paying smart homes to cut peak-time use, easing supply pressure and avoiding power cuts.

✅ Pays volunteers with smart meters to reduce peak demand.

✅ Credits discounts for shifting use to off-peak windows.

✅ Manages tight margins and helps avert UK power cuts.

National Grid has decided not to activate a scheme on Tuesday to help the UK avoid power cuts after being poised to do so.

It would have seen some households offered discounts on their electricity bills if they cut peak-time use.

National Grid had been ready to trigger the scheme following a warning that Britain's energy supplies were looking tighter than usual this week.

However, it decided that the measure was not required.

Alerts are sent out automatically when expected supplies drop below a certain level. But they do not mean that blackouts are likely, or that the situation is critical.

National Grid said it was "confident" it would be able to manage margins and "demand is not at risk".

Discounts
Earlier on Monday, the grid operator said it was considering whether to pay households across Britain to reduce their energy use to help out on Tuesday evening.

Under the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), announced earlier this month, customers that have signed up could get discounts on their bills if they use less electricity in a given window of time.

That could mean delaying the use of a tumble-dryer or washing machine, or cooking dinner in the microwave rather than the oven.

Major suppliers such as Octopus and British Gas are taking part, but only customers that have an electricity smart meter and that have volunteered are eligible. About 14 million UK homes have an electricity smart meter.

The DFS has already been tested twice but has not yet run live.

Octopus, the supplier with the most customers signed up, said that some households had earned more than £4 during the hour-long tests, while the average saving was "well over £1".

It came after forecasts projected a large drop in the amount of power that Britain will be able to import from French nuclear power stations on Monday and Tuesday evenings.

The lack of strong winds to power turbines has also affected how much power can be generated within the UK, and efforts to fast-track grid connections aim to ease constraints.

Such warnings are not unusual - around 12 have been issued and cancelled without issue in the last six years, and other regions such as Canada are seeing grids strained by harsh weather as well.

However, they have become more common this year due to the energy crisis, and the most recent notice was sent out last week.

The situation means that the UK will have to import electricity from other sources on Monday and Tuesday evening.

Supplies are also expected be tight in France, forecasters say.

France has been facing months of problems with its nuclear power plants, which generate around three-quarters of the country's electricity.

More than half of the nuclear reactors run by state energy company EDF have closed due to maintenance problems and technical issues.

It has added to a massive energy crisis in Europe which is facing a winter without gas supplies from Russia.

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