AEP offers 'green' power option in West Virginia

US Renewable Power Outlook 2030 projects surging capacity, solar PV and wind growth, grid modernization, and favorable tax credits, detailing market trends, CAGR, transmission expansion, and policy drivers shaping clean energy generation and consumption.

Key Points

A forecast of US power capacity, generation, and consumption, highlighting solar, wind, tax credits, and grid modernization.

✅ Targets 48.4% renewable capacity share by 2030

✅ Strong growth in solar PV and onshore wind installations

✅ Investment and tax credits drive grid and transmission upgrades

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘United States Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2021 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape’ discusses the power market structure of the United States and provides historical and forecast numbers for capacity, generation and consumption up to 2030. Detailed analysis of the country’s power market regulatory structure, competitive landscape and a list of major power plants are provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in the country on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission and distribution infrastructure, about a quarter of U.S. electricity from renewables in recent years, electricity import and export scenario, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential. An analysis of the deals in the country’s power sector is also included in the report.

Renewable power held a 19% share of the US’s total power capacity in 2020, and in that year renewables became the second-most prevalent source in the U.S. electricity mix by generation; this share is expected to increase significantly to 48.4% by 2030. Favourable policies introduced by the US Government will continue to drive the country’s renewable sector, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, with wind now the most-used renewable source in the U.S. generation mix. Installed renewable capacity* increased from 16.5GW in 2000 to 239.2GW in 2020, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3%. By 2030, the cumulative renewable capacity is expected to rise to 884.6GW, growing at a CAGR of 14% from 2020 to 2030. Despite increase in prices of renewable equipment, such as solar modules, in 2021, the US renewable sector will show strong growth during the 2021 to 2030 period as this increase in equipment prices are short term due to supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The expansion of renewable power capacity during the 2000 to 2020 period has been possible due to the introduction of federal schemes, such as Production Tax Credits, Investment Tax Credits and Manufacturing Tax Credits. These have massively aided renewable installations by bringing down the cost of renewable power generation and making it at par with power generated from conventional sources. Over the last few years, the cost of solar PV and wind power installations has declined sharply, and by 2023 wind, solar, and batteries made up most of the utility-scale pipeline across the US, highlighting investor confidence. Since 2010, the cost of utility-scale solar PV projects decreased by around 82% while onshore wind installations decreased by around 39%. This has supported the rapid expansion of the renewable market. However, the price of solar equipment has risen due to an increase in raw material prices and supply shortages. This may slightly delay the financing of some solar projects that are already in the pipeline.

The US will continue to add significant renewable capacity additions during the forecast period as industry outlooks point to record solar and storage installations over the coming years, to meet its target of reaching 80% clean energy by 2030. In November 2021, President Biden signed a $1tr Infrastructure Bill, within which $73bn is designated to renewables. This includes not just renewable capacity building, but also strengthening the country’s power grid and laying new high voltage transmission lines, both of which will be key to driving solar and wind power capacity additions as wind power surges in the U.S. electricity mix nationwide.

The US was one of the worst hit countries in the world due to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. With respect to the power sector, the electricity consumption in the country declined by 2.5% in 2020 as compared to 2019, even as renewable electricity surpassed coal in 2022 in the generation mix, highlighting continued structural change. Power plants that were under construction faced delays due to unavailability of components due to supply chain disruptions and unavailability of labour due to travel restrictions.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, 61 power projects, having a total capacity of 2.4GWm which were under construction during March and April 2020 were delayed because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Among renewable power technologies, solar PV and wind power projects were the most badly affected due to the pandemic.

In March and April 2020, 53 solar PV projects, having a total capacity of 1.3GW, and wind power projects, having a total capacity of 1.2GW, were delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, several states suspended renewable energy auctions due to the pandemic.

For instance, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) had issued a new offshore wind solicitation for 1GW and up to 2.5GW in April 2020, but this was suspended due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In July 2020, the authority relaunched the tender for 2.5GW of offshore wind capacity, with a submission deadline in October 2020.

To ease the financial burden on consumers during the pandemic, more than 1,000 utilities in the country announced disconnection moratoria and implemented flexible payment plans. Duke Energy, American Electric Power, Dominion Power and Southern California Edison were among the major utilities that voluntarily suspended disconnections.

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Idaho Renewable Energy 2018 saw over 80% in-state utility-scale power from hydropower, wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal, per EIA, with imports declining as Snake River Plain resources and Hells Canyon hydro lead.

Key Points

Idaho produced over 80% in-state power from renewables in 2018, led by hydropower, wind, solar, and biomass.

✅ Hydropower supplies about half of capacity; Hells Canyon leads.

✅ Wind provides nearly 20% of capacity along the Snake River Plain.

✅ Utility-scale solar surged since 2016; biomass and geothermal add output.

More than 80% of Idaho’s in-state utility-scale electricity generation came from renewable resources in 2018, behind only Vermont, according to recently released data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Electric Power Monthly and broader trends showing that solar and wind reached about 10% of U.S. generation in the first half of 2018.

Idaho generated 17.4 million MWh of electricity in 2018, of which 14.2 million MWh came from renewable sources, while nationally January power generation jumped 9.3% year over year according to EIA. Idaho uses a variety of renewable resources to generate electricity:

Hydroelectricity. Idaho ranked seventh in the U.S. in electricity generation from hydropower in 2018. About half of Idaho’s electricity generating capacity is at hydroelectric power plants, and utility actions such as the Idaho Power settlement could influence future resource choices, and seven of the state’s 10 largest power plants (in terms of electricity generation) are hydroelectric facilities. The largest privately owned hydroelectric generating facility in the U.S. is a three-dam complex on the Snake River in Hells Canyon, the deepest river gorge in North America.

Wind. Nearly one-fifth of Idaho’s electricity generating capacity and one-sixth of its generation comes from wind turbines. Idaho has substantial wind energy potential, and nationally the EIA expects solar and wind to be larger sources this summer, although only a small percentage of the state's land area is well-suited for wind development. All of the state’s wind farms are located in the southern half of the state along the Snake River Plain.

Solar. Almost 5% of Idaho’s electricity generating capacity and 3% of its generation come from utility-scale solar facilities, and nationally over half of new capacity in 2023 will be solar according to projections. The state had no utility-scale solar generation as recently as 2015. Between 2016 and 2017, Idaho’s utility-scale capacity doubled and generation increased from 30,000 MWh to more than 450,000 MWh. Idaho’s small-scale solar capacity also doubled since 2017, generating 33,000 MWh in 2018.

Biomass. Biomass-fueled power plants account for about 2% of the state’s utility-scale electricity generating capacity and 3% of its generation, contributing to a broader U.S. shift where 40% of electricity came from non-fossil sources in 2021. Wood waste from the state’s forests is the primary fuel for these plants.

Geothermal. Idaho is one of seven states with utility-scale geothermal electricity generation. Idaho has one 18-MW geothermal facility, located near the state’s southern border with Utah.

EIA says Idaho requires significant electricity imports, totaling about one-third of demand, to meet its electricity needs. However, Idaho’s electricity imports have decreased over time, and Georgia's recent import levels illustrate how regional dynamics can vary. Almost all of these imports are from neighboring states, as electricity imports from Canada accounted for less than 0.1% of Idaho’s total electricity supply in 2017.

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OPG Pickering Nuclear Refurbishment extends four CANDU reactors to bolster Ontario clean energy, grid reliability, and decarbonization goals, leveraging Darlington lessons, mature supply chains, and AtkinsRealis OEM expertise for cost effective life extension.

Key Points

Modernizing four Pickering CANDU units to extend life, add clean power, and enhance Ontario grid reliability.

✅ Extends four 515 MW CANDU reactors by 30 years

✅ Supports clean, reliable baseload and decarbonization

✅ Leverages Darlington playbook and AtkinsRealis OEM supply chain

In a pivotal shift last month, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) revised its strategy for the Pickering Nuclear Power Station, scrapping plans to decommission its six remaining reactors. Instead, OPG has opted to modernize four reactors (Pickering B Units 5-8) starting in 2027, while Units 1 and 4 are slated for closure by the end of the current year.

This revision ensures the continued operation of the four 515 MW Canada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) reactors—originally constructed in the 1970s and 1980s—extending their service life by at least 30 more years amid an extension request deadline for Pickering.

Todd Smith, Ontario's Energy Minister, underscored the significance of nuclear power in maintaining Ontario's status as a region with one of the cleanest and most reliable electricity grids globally. He emphasized the integral role of nuclear facilities, particularly the Pickering station, in the provincial energy strategy during the announcement supporting continued operations, which was made in the presence of union workers at the plant.

The Pickering station has demonstrated remarkable efficiency and reliability, notably achieving its second-highest output in 2023 and setting a record in 2022 for continuous operation. Extending the lifespan of nuclear plants like Pickering is deemed the most cost-effective method for sustaining low-carbon electricity, according to research conducted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) across 243 plants in 24 countries.

The refurbishment project is poised to significantly boost Ontario's economy, projected to add CAN$19.4 billion to the GDP over 11 years and generate approximately 11,000 jobs annually. The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has indicated that to meet the province's future electrification and decarbonization goals, as it faces a growing electricity supply gap, Ontario will need to double its nuclear capacity by 2050, requiring an addition of 17.8 GW of nuclear power.

Subo Sinnathamby, OPG's Senior Vice President of Nuclear Refurbishment, emphasized the necessity of nuclear energy in reducing reliance on natural gas. Sinnathamby, who is leading the refurbishment efforts at OPG's Darlington nuclear power station, where SMR plans are also underway, highlighted the positive impact of the Darlington and Bruce Power projects on the nuclear power supply chain and workforce.

The procurement strategy employed for Darlington, which involved placing orders early to ensure readiness among suppliers, is set to be replicated for the Pickering refurbishment. This approach aims to facilitate a seamless transition of skilled workers and resources from Darlington to Pickering refurbishment, leveraging a matured supply chain and experienced vendors.

AtkinsRealis, the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for CANDU reactors, has a track record of successfully refurbishing CANDU plants worldwide. The CANDU reactor design, known for its refurbishment capabilities, allows for individual replacement of pressure tubes and access to fuel channels without decommissioning the reactor. Gary Rose, Executive Vice-President of Nuclear at AtkinsRealis, highlighted the economic benefits and environmental benefits of refurbishing reactors, stating it as a viable and swift solution to maximize fossil-free energy.

Looking forward, AtkinsRealis is exploring the potential for multiple refurbishments of CANDU reactors, which could extend their operational life beyond 100 years, addressing local energy needs and economic factors in the decision-making process. This innovative approach underscores the role of nuclear refurbishment in meeting global energy demands sustainably and economically.

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Siwash Creek Hydroelectric Project faces downsizing under a BC Hydro power purchase agreement, with run-of-river generation, high grid interconnection costs, First Nations partnership, and surplus electricity from Site C reshaping clean energy procurement.

Key Points

A downsized run-of-river plant in BC, co-owned by Kanaka Bar and Green Valley, selling power via a BC Hydro PPA.

✅ Approved at 500 kW under a BC Hydro clean-energy program

✅ Grid interconnection initially quoted at $2.1M

✅ Joint venture: Kanaka Bar and Green Valley Power

A small run-of-river hydroelectric project recently selected by B.C. Hydro for a power purchase agreement may no longer be financially viable.

The Siwash Creek project was originally conceived as a two-megawatt power plant by the original proponent Chad Peterson, who holds a 50-per-cent stake through Green Valley Power, with the Kanaka Bar Indian Band holding the other half.

The partners were asked by B.C. Hydro to trim the capacity back to one megawatt, but by the time the Crown corporation announced its approval, it agreed to only half that — 500 kilowatts — under its Standing Order clean-energy program.

“Hydro wanted to charge us $2.1 million to connect to the grid, but then they said they could reduce it if we took a little trim on the project,” said Kanaka Bar Chief Patrick Michell.

The revenue stream for the band and Green Valley Power has been halved to about $250,000 a year. The original cost of running the $3.7-million plant, including financing, was projected to be $273,000 a year, according to the Kanaka Bar economic development plan.

“By our initial forecast, we will have to subsidize the loan for 20 years,” said Michell. “It doesn’t make any sense.”

The Kanaka Band has already invested $450,000 in feasibility, hydrology and engineering studies, with a similar investment from Green Valley.

B.C. Hydro announced it would pursue five purchase agreements last March with five First Nations projects — including Siwash Creek — including hydro, solar and wind energy projects, as two new generating stations were being commissioned at the time. A purchase agreement allows proponents to sell electricity to B.C. Hydro at a set price.

However, at least ten other “shovel-ready” clean energy projects may be doomed while B.C. Hydro completes a review of its own operations and its place in the energy sector, where legal outcomes like the Squamish power project ruling add uncertainty, including B.C.’s future power needs.

With the 1,100-megawatt Site C Dam planned for completion in 2024, and LNG demand cited to justify it, B.C. Hydro now projects it will have a surplus of electricity until the early 2030s.

Even if British Columbians put 300,000 electric vehicles on the road over the next 12 years, amid BC Hydro’s first call for power, they will require only 300 megawatts of new capacity, the company said.

A long-term surplus could effectively halt all small-scale clean energy development, according to Clean Energy B.C., even as Hydro One’s U.S. coal plant remains online in the region.

“(B.C. Hydro) dropped their offer down to 500 kilowatts right around the time they announced their review,” said Michell. “So we filled out the paperwork at 500 kilowatts and (B.C. Hydro) got to make its announcement of five projects.”

In the new few weeks, Kanaka and Green Valley will discuss whether they can move forward with a new financial model or shelve the project, he said.

B.C. Hydro declined to comment on the rationale for downsizing Siwash Creek’s power purchase agreement.

The Kanaka Bar Band successfully operates a 49.9-megawatt run-of-river plant on Kwoiek Creek with partners Innergex Renewable Energy.

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BC Hydro Clean Power Call 2024 seeks utility-scale renewable energy, including wind and solar, to meet rising electricity demand, advance clean goals, expand grid, and support Indigenous participation through competitive procurement and equity opportunities.

Key Points

BC Hydro's 2024 bid to add zero-emission wind and solar to meet rising demand and support Indigenous equity.

✅ Competitive procurement for utility-scale wind and solar

✅ Targets 3,000 GWh new greenfield by fiscal 2029

✅ Encourages Indigenous ownership and equity stakes

The Government of British Columbia (the Government or Province) has announced that BC Hydro would be moving forward with a call for new sources of 100 percent clean, renewable emission-free electricity, notably including wind and solar, even as nuclear power remains a divisive option among residents. The call, expected to launch in spring 2024, is BC Hydro's first call for power in 15 years and will seek power from larger scale projects.

Over the past decade, British Columbia has experienced a growing economy and population as well as a move by the housing, business and transportation sectors towards electrification, with industrial demand from LNG facilities also influencing load growth. As the Government highlighted in their recent announcement, the number of registered light-duty electric vehicles in British Columbia increased from 5,000 in 2016 to more than 100,000 in 2023. Zero-emission vehicles represented 18.1 percent of new light-duty passenger vehicles sold in British Columbia in 2022, the highest percentage for any province or territory.

Ultimately, the Province now expects electricity demand in British Columbia to increase by 15 percent by 2030. BC Hydro elaborated on the growing need for electricity in their recent Signposts Update to the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC), and noted additions such as new generating stations coming online to support capacity. BC Hydro implemented its Signposts Update process to monitor whether the "Near-term actions" established in its 2021 Integrated Resource Plan continue to be appropriate and align with the changing circumstances in electricity demand. Those actions outline how BC Hydro will meet the electricity needs of its customers over the next 20 years. The original Near-term actions focused on demand-side management and not incremental electricity production.

In its Update, BC Hydro emphasized that increased use of electricity and decreased supply, along with episodes of importing out-of-province fossil power during tight periods, has advanced the forecast of the province's need for additional renewable energy by three years. Accordingly, BC Hydro has updated its 2021 Integrated Resource Plan to, among other things:

accelerate the timing of several Near-term actions on energy efficiency, demand response, industrial load curtailment, electricity purchase agreement renewals and utility-scale batteries; and
add new Near-term actions for BC Hydro to acquire an additional 3,000 GWh per year of new clean, renewable energy from greenfield facilities in the province able to achieve commercial operation as early as fiscal 2029, as well as approximately 700 GWh per year of new clean, renewable energy from existing facilities prior to fiscal 2029.
The Province's predictions align with Canada Energy Regulator's (CER) "Canada's Energy Future 2023" flagship report (Report) released on June 20, 2023. The Report, which looks at Canadians' possible energy futures, includes two long-term scenarios modelled on Canada reaching net-zero by 2050. Under either scenario, the electricity sector is predicted to serve as the cornerstone of the net-zero energy system, with examples such as Hydro-Quebec's decarbonization strategy illustrating this shift as it transforms and expands to accommodate increasing electricity use.

Key Details of the Call
Though not finalized, the call for power will be a competitive process, with the exact details to be designed by BC Hydro and the Province, incorporating input from the recently-formed BC Hydro Task Force made up of Indigenous communities, industry and stakeholders. This is a shift from previous calls for power, which operated as a continuous-intake program with a standing offer at a fixed rate, after projects like the Siwash Creek project were left in limbo.

Drawing on advice from Indigenous and external energy experts, the Province seeks to advance Indigenous ownership and equity interest opportunities in the electricity sector, potentially with minimum requirements for Indigenous participation in new projects to be a condition of the competitive process. The Province has also committed $140 million to the B.C. Indigenous Clean Energy Initiative (BCICEI) to support Indigenous-led power projects and their ability to respond to future electricity demand, facilitating their ability to compete in the call for power, despite their smaller size.

BC Hydro expects to initiate the call in spring 2024, with the goal of acquiring new sources of electricity as early as 2028, even as clean electricity affordability features prominently in Ontario's election discourse.

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Clean Energy Tax Incentives could expand under Democratic proposals, including ITC, PTC, and EV tax credits, boosting renewable energy, energy storage, and grid modernization within a broader infrastructure package influenced by Green New Deal goals.

Key Points

Federal incentives like ITC, PTC, and EV credits that cut costs and speed renewables, storage, and grid upgrades.

✅ Proposes permanence for ITC, PTC, and EV tax credits

✅ Could accelerate solar, wind, storage, and grid upgrades

✅ Passage depends on bipartisan infrastructure compromise

The 115th U.S. Congress has not even adjourned for the winter, and already a newly resurgent Democratic Party is making demands that reflect its majority status in the U.S. House come January.

Climate appears to be near the top of the list. Last Thursday, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the Democratic Leader in the Senate, sent a letter to President Trump demanding that any infrastructure package taken up in 2019 include “policies and funding to transition to a clean energy economy and mitigate the risks that the United States is already facing due to climate change.”

And in a list of policies that Schumer says should be included, the top item is “permanent tax incentives for domestic production of clean electricity and storage, energy efficient homes and commercial buildings, electric vehicles, and modernizing the electric grid.”

In concrete terms, this could mean an extension of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar and energy storage, the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind and the federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit program as well.

Pressure from the Left

This strong statement on climate change, clean energy and infrastructure investment comes as at least 30 incoming members of the U.S. House of Representatives have signed onto a call for the creation of a committee to explore a “Green New Deal” and to move the nation to 100% renewable energy by 2030.*

It also comes as Schumer has come under fire by activists for rumors that he plans to replace Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) with coal state Democrat Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) as the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

As such, one possible way to read these moves is that centrist leaders like Schumer are responding to pressure from an energized and newly elected Left wing of the Democratic Party. It is notable that Schumer’s program includes many of the aims of the Green New Deal, while avoiding any explicit use of that phrase.

Implications of a potential ITC extension

The details of levels and timelines are important here, particularly for the ITC.

The ITC was set to expire at the end of 2016, but was extended in legislative horse-trading at the end of 2015 to a schedule where it remains at 30% through the end of 2019 and then steps down for the next three years, and disappears entirely for residential projects. Since that extension the IRS has issued guidance around the use of co-located energy storage, as well as setting a standard under which PV projects can claim the ITC for the year that they begin construction.

This language around construction means that projects can start work in 2019, complete in 2023 and still claim the 30% ITC, and this may be why we at pv magazine USA are seeing an unprecedented boom in project pipelines across the United States.

Of course, if the ITC were to become permanent some of those projects would be pushed out to later years. But as we saw in 2016, despite an extension of the ITC many projects were still completed before the deadline, leading to the largest volume of PV installed in the United States in any one year to date.

This means that if the ITC were extended by the end of 2020, we could see the same thing all over again – a boom in projects created by the expected sunset, and then after a slight lull a continuation of growth.

Or it is possible that a combination of raw economics, increased investor and utility interest, and accelerating renewable energy mandates will cause solar growth rates to continue every year, and that any changes in the ITC will only be a bump against a larger trend.

While the basis for expiration of the EV tax credit is the number of vehicles sold, not any year, both the battery storage and EV industries, which many see at an inflection point, could see similar effects if the ITC and EV tax credits are made permanent.

Will consensus be reached?

It is also unclear that any such infrastructure package will be taken up by Republicans, or that both parties will be able to come to a compromise on this issue. While the U.S. Congress passed an infrastructure bill in 2017, given the sharp and growing differences between the two parties, and divergent trade approaches such as the 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs, it is not clear that they will be able to come to a meaningful compromise during the next two years.

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