What could have gone wrong at Constellation?

By Jay Hancock, Baltimore Sun


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You leave the Web for 12 hours and look what happens. Who would have thought the financial worldÂ’s next holy guacamole moment would happen in Baltimore?

Obviously a potential ratings downgrade has triggered a Constellation Energy liquidity crisis – or vice versa. Translation: Rating agencies, shareholders and lenders fear it may run short on cash to carry out day-to-day operations. But we have no idea what’s causing it yet.

What’s clear is that Constellation’s reliance on borrowed money is putting it in dire straits. Much like many Wall Street firms that have run into problems, Constellation uses short-term loans to play the markets – in its case, mainly commodities such as wholesale electricity and natural gas. A huge portion of its profits – we don’t know exactly how huge – has depended on this play.

Two things could have gone wrong: 1) A critical trading blowup or 2) A perception by shareholders, lenders and rating agencies that the cheap, easy money Constellation needs to play the market wonÂ’t be there in the future.

WhatÂ’s a trading blowup? When you make a bad bet, lenders demand more collateral. When you make a really bad bet, you run out of collateral to post, which causes lenders to pull the plug, which threatens the whole enterprise.

We donÂ’t know that this is whatÂ’s going on. But itÂ’s one explanation given the plunge in ConstellationÂ’s stock and the companyÂ’s apparent decision to put itself up for sale.

Constellation had wagered on rising energy prices through the first half of the year. It was the right bet, and profits looked good at the end of June. But in July energy started to crater. If Constellation remained “long” energy after July, that might help explain what’s going on. But it’s speculation.

The alternative scenario is that Constellation lenders are simply declining to roll over its loans in order to lower their risk, and itÂ’s snowballing. One lender makes a prudent move. A rating agency starts to worry. The second lender worries a credit drought will hurt ConstellationÂ’s liquidity, and it becomes self-fulfilling.

There has been much worry that Constellation was owed money by Lehman Brothers or AIG or some other firm that just collapsed. Constellation said the Lehman collapse wouldn’t cause it any problems. And AIG got bailed out last night, so it is honoring its commitments. In any event, it’s hard to imagine that such “counterparty risk” could threaten Constellation enough to seek to sell itself.

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Britain Goes Full Week Without Coal Power

Britain Coal-Free Week signals a historic shift to clean energy, with zero coal power, increased natural gas and renewables, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and ambitious UK energy policy targeting a 2025 coal phase-out and decarbonization.

 

Key Points

A seven-day period with no coal power in the UK, signaling cleaner energy and progress on emission reductions.

✅ Seven days of zero coal generation in the UK

✅ Natural gas and renewables dominated the electricity mix

✅ Coal phase-out targeted by 2025; emissions cuts planned

 

For the first time in a century, Britain weaned itself off of coal consumption for an entire week, a coal-free power record for the country.

Reuters reported that Britain went seven days without relying on any power generated by coal-powered stations as the share of coal in the grid continued to hit record lows.

The accomplishment is symbolic of a shift to more clean energy sources, with wind surpassing coal in 2016 and the UK leading the G20 in wind share as of recent years; Britain was home to the first coal-powered plant back in the 1880s.

Today, Britain has some aggressive plans in place to completely eliminate its coal power generation permanently by 2025, with a plan to end coal power underway. In addition, Britain aims to cut its total greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent from 1990 levels within the next 30 years.

Natural gas was the largest source of power for Britain in 2018, providing 39 percent of the nation's total electricity, as the Great Britain generation dashboard shows. Coal contributed only about 5 percent, though low-carbon generation stalled in 2019 according to reports. Burning natural gas also produces greenhouse gases, but it is much more efficient and greener than coal.

In the U.S., 63.5 percent of electricity generated in 2018 came from fossil fuels. About 35.1 percent was produced from natural gas and 27.4 percent came from coal. In addition, 19.3 percent of electricity came from nuclear power and 17.1 percent came from renewable energy sources, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

 

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U.S. Electricity and natural gas prices explained

Energy Pricing Factors span electricity generation, transmission, and distribution costs, plus natural gas supply-demand, renewables, seasonal peaks, and wholesale pricing effects across residential, commercial, and industrial customers, usage patterns, weather, and grid constraints.

 

Key Points

They are the costs and market forces driving electricity and natural gas prices, from generation to delivery and demand.

✅ Generation, transmission, distribution shape electricity rates

✅ Gas prices hinge on supply, storage, imports/exports

✅ Demand shifts: weather, economy, and fuel alternatives

 

There are a lot of factors that affect energy prices globally. What’s included in the price to heat homes and supply them with electricity may be a lot more than some people may think.

Electricity
Generating electricity is the largest component of its price, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Generation accounts for 56% of the price of electricity, while distribution and transmission account for 31% and 13% respectively.

Homeowners and businesses pay more for electricity than industrial companies, and U.S. electricity prices have recently surged, highlighting broader inflationary pressures. This is because industrial companies can take electricity at higher voltages, reducing transmission costs for energy companies.

“Industrial consumers use more electricity and can receive it at higher voltages, so supplying electricity to these customers is more efficient and less expensive. The price of electricity to industrial customers is generally close to the wholesale price of electricity,” EIA explains.

NYSEG said based on the average use of 600 kilowatt-hours per month, its customers spent the most money on delivery and transition charges in 2020, 57% or about $42, and residential electricity bills increased 5% in 2022 after inflation, according to national data. They also spent on average 35% (~$26) on supply charges and 8% (~$6) on surcharges.

Electricity prices are usually higher in the summer. Why? Because energy companies use sources of electricity that cost more money. It used to be that renewable sources, like solar and wind, were the most expensive sources of energy but increased technological advances have changed this, according to the International Energy Agency’s 2021 World Energy Outlook.

“In most markets, solar PV or wind now represents the cheapest available source of new electricity generation. Clean energy technology is becoming a major new area for investment and employment – and a dynamic arena for international collaboration and competition,” the report said.

Natural gas
The price of natural gas is driven by supply and demand. If there is more supply, prices are generally lower. If there is not as much supply, prices are generally higher the EIA explains. On the other side of the equation, more demand can also increase the price and less demand can decrease the price.

High natural gas prices mean people turn their home thermostats down a few degrees to save money, so the EIA said reduced demand can encourage companies to produce more natural gas, which would in turn help lower the cost. Lower prices will sometimes cause companies to reduce their production, therefore causing the price to rise.

The three major supply factors that affect prices: the amount of natural gas produced, how much is stored, and the volume of gas imported and exported. The three major demand factors that affect price are: changes in winter/summer weather, economic growth, and the broader energy crisis dynamics, as well as how much other fuels are available and their price, said EIA.

To think the price of natural gas is higher when the economy is thriving may sound counterintuitive but that’s exactly what happens. The EIA said this is because of increases in demand.

 

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Changes Coming For Ontario Electricity Consumers

Ontario Electricity Billing Changes include OEB-backed shifts to time-of-use or tiered pricing, landlord blanket elections, LDC implementation guidance, a customer choice webpage with a bill calculator, and ENDM rate mitigation messaging.

 

Key Points

They are OEB measures enabling TOU-to-tiered switching, landlord elections, LDC guidance, and ENDM bill messages.

✅ Option to switch from TOU to tiered pricing

✅ Landlord blanket elections on tenant turnover

✅ ENDM-led bill info and rate mitigation messaging

 

By David Stevens, Aird & Berlis LLP

Electricity consumers in Ontario may see a couple of electricity rate changes in their bills in the coming months.

First, as we have already discussed, as of November 1, 2020, regulated price plan customers will have the option to switch to "tiered pricing" instead of time-of-use (TOU) pricing structures. Those who switch to "tiered pricing" will see changes in their electricity bills.

The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) has now issued final amendments to the Standard Supply Service Code to support the customer election process necessary to switch from TOU pricing to tiered pricing. The main change from what was already published in previous OEB notices is that landlords will be permitted to make a "blanket election" between TOU pricing and tiered pricing that will apply each time a tenant's account reverts back to the landlord on turnover of the rental unit. In its most recent notice, the OEB acknowledges that implementing the new customer billing option as of Nov. 1 (less than two months from now) will be challenging and directs Local Distribution Companies (LDCs) who cannot meet this date to be immediately in touch with the OEB. Finally, the OEB indicates that there will be a dedicated "customer choice webpage for consumers, including a bill calculator" in place by early October.

Second, as of January 1, 2021 low-volume consumers will see additional messaging on their bills to inform them of available rate mitigation programs.

A recent proposal posted on Ontario's Regulatory Registry indicates that the Ministry of Energy, Northern Development and Mines (ENDM) proposes that LDCs and Utility Sub-Meter Providers will be required to include a new on-bill message for low-volume consumers that "will direct customers to ENDM's new web page for further information about how the province provides financial support to electricity consumers." This new requirement is planned to be in place as of January 1, 2021. In conjunction with this requirement, the ENDM plans to launch a new web page that will provide "up-to-date information about electricity bills," including information about rate mitigation programs available to consumers. Parties are invited to submit comments on the ENDM proposal by October 5, 2020.

 

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COVID-19 crisis shows need to keep electricity options open, says Birol

Electricity Security and Firm Capacity underpin reliable supply, balancing variable renewables with grid flexibility via gas plants, nuclear power, hydropower, battery storage, and demand response, safeguarding telework, e-commerce, and critical healthcare operations.

 

Key Points

Ability to meet demand by combining firm generation and flexible resources, keeping grids stable as renewables grow.

✅ Balances variable renewables with dispatchable generation

✅ Rewards flexibility via capacity markets and ancillary services

✅ Enhances grid stability for critical loads during low demand

 

The huge disruption caused by the coronavirus crisis, and the low-carbon electricity lessons drawn from it, has highlighted how much modern societies rely on electricity and how firm capacity, such as that provided by nuclear power, is a crucial element in ensuring supply, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

In a commentary posted on LinkedIn, Birol said: "The coronavirus crisis reminds us of electricity's indispensable role in our lives. It's also providing insights into how that role is set to expand and evolve in the years and decades ahead."

Reliable electricity supply is crucial for teleworking, e-commerce, operating ventilators and other medical equipment, among all its other uses, he said, adding that the hundreds of millions of people who live without any access to electricity are far more vulnerable to disease and other dangers.

"Although new forms of short-term flexibility such as battery storage are on the rise, and initiatives like UK home virtual power plants are emerging, most electricity systems rely on natural gas power plants - which can quickly ramp generation up or down at short notice - to provide flexibility, underlining the critical role of gas in clean energy transitions," Birol said.

"Today, most gas power plants lose money if they are used only from time to time to help the system adjust to shifts in demand. The lower levels of electricity demand during the current crisis are adding to these pressures. Hydropower, an often forgotten workhorse of electricity generation, remains an essential source of flexibility.

"Firm capacity, including nuclear power in countries that have chosen to retain it as an option, is a crucial element in ensuring a secure electricity supply even as soaring electricity and coal use complicate transitions. Policy makers need to design markets that reward different sources for their contributions to electricity security, which can enable them to establish viable business models."

In most economies that have taken strong confinement measures in response to the coronavirus - and for which the IEA has available data - electricity demand has declined by around 15%, largely as a result of factories and businesses halting operations, and in New York City load patterns were notably reshaped during lockdowns. If electricity demand falls quickly while weather conditions remain the same, the share of variable renewables like wind and solar can become higher than normal, and low-emissions sources are set to cover almost all near-term growth.

"With weaker electricity demand, power generation capacity is abundant. However, electricity system operators have to constantly balance demand and supply in real time. People typically think of power outages as happening when surging electricity demand overwhelms supply. But in fact, some of the most high-profile blackouts in recent times took place during periods of low demand," Birol said.

"When electricity from wind and solar is satisfying the majority of demand, and renewables poised to eclipse coal by 2025 are reshaping the mix, systems need to maintain flexibility in order to be able to ramp up other sources of generation quickly when the pattern of supply shifts, such as when the sun sets. A very high share of wind and solar in a given moment also makes the maintenance of grid stability more challenging."

 

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BMW boss says hydrogen, not electric, will be "hippest thing" to drive

BMW Hydrogen Fuel Cell Strategy positions iX5 and eDrive for zero-emission mobility, leveraging fuel cells, fast refueling, and hydrogen infrastructure as an alternative to BEVs, diversifying drivetrains across premium segments globally, rapidly.

 

Key Points

BMW's plan to commercialize hydrogen fuel-cell drivetrains like iX5 eDrive for scalable, zero-emission mobility.

✅ Fuel cells enable fast refueling and long range with water vapor only.

✅ Reduces reliance on lithium and cobalt via recyclable materials.

✅ Targets premium SUV iX5; limited pilots before broader rollout.

 

BMW is hanging in there with hydrogen, a stance mirrored in power companies' hydrogen outlook today. That’s what Oliver Zipse, the chairperson of BMW, reiterated during an interview last week in Goodwood, England. 

“After the electric car, which has been going on for about 10 years and scaling up rapidly, the next trend will be hydrogen,” he says. “When it’s more scalable, hydrogen will be the hippest thing to drive.”

BMW has dabbled with the idea of using hydrogen for power for years, even though it is obscure and niche compared to the current enthusiasm surrounding vehicles powered by electricity. In 2005, BMW built 100 “Hydrogen 7” vehicles that used the fuel to power their V12 engines. It unveiled the fuel cell iX5 Hydrogen concept car at the International Motor Show Germany in 2021. 

In August, the company started producing fuel-cell systems for a production version of its hydrogen-powered iX5 sport-utility vehicle. Zipse indicated it would be sold in the United States within the next five years, although in a follow-up phone call a spokesperson declined to confirm that point. Bloomberg previously reported that BMW will start delivering fewer than 100 of the iX5 hydrogen vehicles to select partners in Europe, the U.S., and Asia, where Asia leads on hydrogen fuel cells today, from the end of this year.

All told, BMW will eventually offer five different drivetrains to help diversify alternative-fuel options within the group, as hybrids gain renewed momentum in the U.S., Zipse says.

“To say in the U.K. about 2030 or the U.K. and in Europe in 2035, there’s only one drivetrain, that is a dangerous thing,” he says. “For the customers, for the industry, for employment, for the climate, from every angle you look at, that is a dangerous path to go to.” 

Zipse’s hydrogen dreams could even extend to the group’s crown jewel, Rolls-Royce, which BMW has owned since 1998. The “magic carpet ride” driving style that has become Rolls-Royce’s signature selling point is flexible enough to be powered by alternatives to electricity, says Rolls-Royce CEO Torsten Müller-Ötvös. 

“To house, let’s say, fuel cell batteries: Why not? I would not rule that out,” Müller-Ötvös told reporters during a roundtable conversation in Goodwood on the eve of the debut of the company’s first-ever electric vehicle, Spectre. “There is a belief in the group that this is maybe the long-term future.”

Such a vehicle would contain a hydrogen fuel-cell drivetrain combined with BMW’s electric “eDrive” system. It works by converting hydrogen into electricity to reach an electrical output of up to 125 kW/170 horsepower and total system output of nearly 375hp, with water vapor as the only emission, according to the brand.

Hydrogen’s big advantage over electric power, as EVs versus fuel cells debates note, is that it can supply fuel cells stored in carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic tanks. “There will [soon] be markets where you must drive emission-free, but you do not have access to public charging infrastructure,” Zipse says. “You could argue, well you also don’t have access to hydrogen infrastructure, but this is very simple to do: It’s a tank which you put in there like an old [gas] tank, and you recharge it every six months or 12 months.”

Fuel cells at BMW would also help reduce its dependency on raw materials like lithium and cobalt, because the hydrogen-based system uses recyclable components made of aluminum, steel, and platinum. 

Zipse’s continued commitment to prioritizing hydrogen has become an increasingly outlier position in the automotive world. In the last five years, electric-only vehicles have become the dominant alternative fuel — as the age of electric cars dawns ahead of schedule — if not yet on the road, where fewer than 3% of new cars have plugs, at least at car shows and new-car launches.

Rivals Mercedes-Benz and Audi scrapped their own plans to develop fuel cell vehicles and instead have poured tens of billions of dollars into developing pure-electric vehicle, including Daimler's electrification plan initiatives. Porsche went public to finance its own electric aspirations. 

BMW will make half of all new-car sales electric by 2030 across the group, with many expecting most drivers to go electric within a decade, which includes MINI and Rolls-Royce. 
 

 

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Physicists Just Achieved Conduction of Electricity at Close to The Speed of Light

Attosecond Electron Transport uses ultrafast lasers and single-cycle light pulses to drive tunneling in bowtie gold nanoantennas, enabling sub-femtosecond switching in optoelectronic nanostructures and surpassing picosecond silicon limits for next-gen computing.

 

Key Points

A light-driven method that manipulates electrons with ultrafast pulses to switch currents within attoseconds.

✅ Uses single-cycle light pulses to drive electron tunneling

✅ Achieves 600 attosecond current switching in nano-gaps

✅ Enables optoelectronic, plasmonic devices beyond silicon

 

When it comes to data transfer and computing, the faster we can shift electrons and conduct electricity the better – and scientists have just been able to transport electrons at sub-femtosecond speeds (less than one quadrillionth of a second) in an experimental setup.

The trick is manipulating the electrons with light waves that are specially crafted and produced by an ultrafast laser. It might be a long while before this sort of setup makes it into your laptop, but similar precision is seen in noninvasive interventions where targeted electrical stimulation can boost short-term memory for limited periods, and the fact they pulled it off promises a significant step forward in terms of what we can expect from our devices.

Right now, the fastest electronic components can be switched on or off in picoseconds (trillionths of a second), a pace that intersects with debates over 5G electricity use as systems scale, around 1,000 times slower than a femtosecond.

With their new method, the physicists were able to switch electric currents at around 600 attoseconds (one femtosecond is 1,000 attoseconds).

"This may well be the distant future of electronics," says physicist Alfred Leitenstorfer from the University of Konstanz in Germany. "Our experiments with single-cycle light pulses have taken us well into the attosecond range of electron transport."

Leitenstorfer and his colleagues were able to build a precise setup at the Centre for Applied Photonics in Konstanz. Their machinery included both the ability to carefully manipulate ultrashort light pulses, and to construct the necessary nanostructures, including graphene architectures, where appropriate.

The laser used by the team was able to push out one hundred million single-cycle light pulses every single second in order to generate a measurable current. Using nanoscale gold antennae in a bowtie shape (see the image above), the electric field of the pulse was concentrated down into a gap measuring just six nanometres wide (six thousand-millionths of a metre).

As a result of their specialist setup and the electron tunnelling and accelerating it produced, the researchers could switch electric currents at well under a femtosecond – less than half an oscillation period of the electric field of the light pulses.

Getting beyond the restrictions of conventional silicon semiconductor technology has proved a challenge for scientists, but using the insanely fast oscillations of light to help electrons pick up speed could provide new avenues for pushing the limits on electronics, as our power infrastructure is increasingly digitized and integrated with photonics.

And that's something that could be very advantageous in the next generation of computers: scientists are currently experimenting with the way that light and electronics could work together in all sorts of different ways, from noninvasive brain stimulation to novel sensors.

Eventually, Leitenstorfer and his team think that the limitations of today's computing systems could be overcome using plasmonic nanoparticles and optoelectronic devices, using the characteristics of light pulses to manipulate electrons at super-small scales, with related work even exploring electricity from snowfall under specific conditions.

"This is very basic research we are talking about here and may take decades to implement," says Leitenstorfer.

The next step is to experiment with a variety of different setups using the same principle. This approach might even offer insights into quantum computing, the researchers say, although there's a lot more work to get through yet - we can't wait to see what they'll achieve next.

 

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