Australia pioneers energy from hot rocks

Ontario electricity shortage is looming, RBC and IESO warn, as EV electrification surges, Pickering nuclear faces delays, and gas plants backstop expiring renewables, raising GHG emissions and grid reliability concerns across the province.

Key Points

A projected supply shortfall as demand rises from electrification, expiring contracts, and delayed nuclear capacity.

✅ RBC warns shortages as early as 2026, significant by 2030

✅ IESO sees EV-driven demand; 5,000-15,000 MW by 2035

✅ Gas reliance boosts GHGs; Pickering life extension assessed

In a fit of ideological pique, Doug Ford’s government spent more than $200 million to scrap more than 700 green energy projects soon after winning the 2018 election, amid calls to make clean, affordable power a central issue, portraying them as “unnecessary and expensive energy schemes.”

A year later, then Associate Energy Minister Bill Walker defended the decision, declaring, “Ontario has an adequate supply of power right now.”

Well, life moves fast. At the time, scrapping the renewable energy projects was criticized as short-sighted and wasteful, raising doubts about whether Ontario was embracing clean power in a meaningful way. It seems especially so now as Ontario confronts the reality of being short of electricity in the coming years.

How short? A recent report by RBC calls the situation “urgent,” saying that Canada’s most populous province could face energy shortages as early as 2026. As contracts for non-hydro renewables and gas plants expire, the shortages could be “significant” by 2030, the bank report said, with grid greening costs adding to the challenge.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), which manages the electrical supply in Ontario, says demand for electricity could rise at rates not seen in many years, as the government moves to add new gas plants to boost capacity. “Economic growth coming out of the pandemic, along with electrification in many sectors, is driving energy use up,” the agency said in a December assessment.

The good news is that demand is being driven, in part, by the transition to “green” power – carbon-emission-free electricity – by sectors such as transportation and manufacturing. That will help reduce emissions. Yet meeting that demand presents some challenges, prompting the province to outline a plan to address growing needs across the system. The shift to electric vehicles alone is expected to cause a spike in demand starting in 2030. By 2035, the province could need an additional 5,000 to 15,000 megawatts of electricity, the IESO estimates.

It was perhaps no surprise then to see the province announce last week that it wants to delay the long-planned closing of the Pickering nuclear plant by a year to 2026, even as others note the station is slated to close as planned. Operations beyond that would require refurbishing the facility. The province said it’s taking a fresh look at whether that would make sense to extend its life by another 30 years.

In the interim, the province will be forced to dramatically ramp up its reliance on natural gas plants for electricity generation – and, as analysts warn, Ontario’s power mix could get dirtier even before new non-emitting capacity is built, and in the process, increase greenhouse gas emissions from the energy grid by 400 per cent. Broader electrification is expected to produce “significant” GHG emissions reductions in Ontario over the next two decades, according to the IESO. Still, it’s working at cross-purposes if your electric car is charged by electricity generated by fossil fuels.

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U.S. Residential Electricity Bills rose on stronger demand, inflation, and fuel costs, with higher retail prices, kWh consumption, and extreme weather driving 2022 spikes; forecasts point to stable summer usage and slight price increases.

Key Points

They are average household power costs shaped by prices, kWh use, weather, and upstream fuel costs.

✅ 2022 bills up 13% nominal, 5% real vs. 2021

✅ Retail price rose 11%; consumption up 2% to 907 kWh

✅ Fuel costs to plants up 34%, pressuring rates

In nominal terms, the average monthly electricity bill for residential customers in the United States increased 13% from 2021 to 2022, rising from $121 a month to $137 a month. After adjusting for inflation—which reached 8% in 2022, a 40-year high—electricity bills increased 5%. Last year had the largest annual increase in average residential electricity spending since we began calculating it in 1984. The increase was driven by a combination of more extreme temperatures, which increased U.S. consumption of electricity for both heating and cooling, and higher fuel costs for power plants, which drove up retail electricity prices nationwide.

Residential electricity customers’ monthly electricity bills are based on the amount of electricity consumed and the retail electricity price. Average U.S. monthly electricity consumption per residential customer increased from 886 kilowatthours (kWh) in 2021 to 907 kWh in 2022, even as U.S. electricity sales have declined over the past seven years. Both a colder winter and a hotter summer contributed to the 2% increase in average monthly electricity consumption per residential customer in 2022 because customers used more space heating during the winter and more air conditioning during the summer, with some states, such as Pennsylvania, facing sharp winter rate increases.

Although we don’t directly collect retail electricity prices, we do collect revenues from electricity providers that allow us to determine prices by dividing by consumption, and industry reports show major utilities spending more on electricity delivery than on power production. In 2022, the average U.S. residential retail electricity price was 15.12 cents/kWh, an 11% increase from 13.66 cents/kWh in 2021. After adjusting for inflation, U.S. residential electricity prices went up by 2.5%.

Higher fuel costs for power plants drove the increase in residential retail electricity prices. The cost of fossil fuels—including natural gas prices, coal, and petroleum—delivered to U.S. power plants increased 34%, from $3.82 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2021 to $5.13/MMBtu in 2022. The higher fuel costs were passed along to residential customers and contributed to higher retail electricity prices, and Germany power prices nearly doubled over a year in a related trend.

In the first three months of 2023, the average U.S. residential monthly electricity bill was $133, or 5% higher than for the same time last year, according to data from our Electric Power Monthly. The increase was driven by a 13% increase in the average U.S. residential retail electricity price, which was partly offset by a 7% decrease in average monthly electricity consumption per residential customer, and industry outlooks also see U.S. power demand sliding 1% on milder weather. This summer, we expect that typical household electricity bills will be similar to last year’s, with customers paying about 2% more on average. The slight increase in electricity costs forecast for this summer stems from higher retail electricity prices but similar consumption levels as last summer.
 

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Quebec Energy Bill Tariff Delay disrupts Canada-U.S. trade, renewable energy investment, hydroelectric expansion, and clean technology projects, as Trump tariffs on aluminum and steel raise costs, threatening climate targets and green infrastructure timelines.

Key Points

A policy pause in Quebec from U.S. tariff threats, disrupting clean investment, hydro expansion, and climate targets.

✅ Tariff risk inflates aluminum and steel project costs.

✅ Quebec delays clean energy legislation amid trade uncertainty.

✅ Hydroelectric reliance complicates emissions reduction timelines.

The Trump administration's tariff threat has had a significant impact on Quebec's energy sector, with tariff threats boosting support for projects even as the uncertainty resulted in the delay of a critical energy bill. Originally introduced to streamline energy development and tackle climate change, the bill was meant to help transition Quebec towards greener alternatives while fostering economic growth. However, the U.S. threat to impose tariffs on Canadian goods, including energy products, introduced a wave of uncertainty that led to a pause in the bill's legislative process.

Quebec’s energy bill had ambitious goals of transitioning to renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. It sought to support investments in clean technologies and the expansion of the province's clean energy infrastructure, as the U.S. demand for Canadian green power continues to grow across the border. Moreover, it emphasized the reduction of carbon emissions, an important step towards meeting Quebec's climate targets. At its core, the bill aimed to position the province as a leader in green energy development in Canada and globally.

The interruption caused by President Donald Trump's tariff rhetoric has, however, cast a shadow over the legislation. Tariffs, if enacted, would disproportionately affect Canada's energy exports, with electricity exports at risk under growing tensions, particularly in sectors like aluminum and steel, which are integral to energy infrastructure development. These tariffs could increase the cost of energy-related projects, thereby hindering Quebec's ability to achieve its renewable energy goals and reduce carbon emissions in a timely manner.

The tariff threat was seen as a part of the broader trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, a continuation of the trade war that had escalated under Trump’s presidency. In this context, the Quebec government was forced to reconsider its legislative priorities, with policymakers citing concerns over the potential long-term consequences on the energy industry, as leaders elsewhere threatened to cut U.S.-bound electricity to exert leverage. With the uncertainty around tariffs and trade relations, the government opted to delay the bill until the geopolitical situation stabilized.

This delay underscores the vulnerability of Quebec’s energy agenda to external pressures. While the provincial government had set its sights on an ambitious green energy future, it now faces significant challenges in ensuring that its projects remain economically viable under the cloud of potential tariffs, even as experts warn against curbing Quebec's exports during the dispute. The delay in the energy bill also reflects broader challenges faced by the Canadian energy sector, which is highly integrated with the U.S. market.

The situation is further complicated by the province's reliance on hydroelectric power, a cornerstone of its energy strategy that supplies markets like New York, where tariffs could spike New York energy prices if cross-border flows are disrupted. While hydroelectric power is a clean and renewable source of energy, there are concerns about the environmental impact of large-scale dams, and these concerns have been growing in recent years. The tariff threat may prompt a reevaluation of Quebec’s energy mix and force the government to balance its environmental goals with economic realities.

The potential imposition of tariffs also raises questions about the future of North American energy cooperation. Historically, Canada and the U.S. have enjoyed a symbiotic energy relationship, with significant energy trade flowing across the border. The energy bill in Quebec was designed with the understanding that cross-border energy trade would continue to thrive. The Trump administration's tariff threat, however, casts doubt on this stability, forcing Quebec lawmakers to reconsider how they proceed with energy policy in a more uncertain trade environment.

Looking forward, Quebec's energy sector will likely need to adjust its strategies to account for the possibility of tariffs, while still pushing for a sustainable energy future, especially if Biden outlook for Canada's energy proves more favorable for the sector in the medium term. It may also open the door for deeper discussions about diversification, both in terms of energy sources and trade partnerships, as Quebec seeks to mitigate the impact of external threats. The delay in the energy bill, though unfortunate, may serve as a wake-up call for Canadian lawmakers to rethink how they balance environmental goals with global trade realities.

Ultimately, the Trump tariff threat highlights the delicate balance between regional energy ambitions and international trade dynamics. For Quebec, the delay in the energy bill could prove to be a pivotal moment in shaping the future of its energy policy.

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Ireland electricity support measures include PSO levy rebates, RESS 2 renewables, CRU-directed EirGrid backup capacity, and grid investment for the Celtic Interconnector, cutting bills, boosting security of supply, and reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels.

Key Points

Government steps to cut bills and secure supply via PSO rebates, RESS 2 renewables, backup power, and grid upgrades.

✅ PSO levy rebates lower domestic electricity bills.

✅ RESS 2 adds wind, solar, and hydro to the grid.

✅ EirGrid to procure temporary backup capacity for winter peaks.

Ireland's Cabinet has approved a package of measures to help mitigate the rising cost of rising electricity bills, as Irish provider price increases continue to pressure consumers, and to ensure secure supplies to electricity for households and business across Ireland over the coming years.

The package of measures includes changes to the Public Service Obligation (PSO) levy (beyond those announced earlier in the year), which align with emerging EU plans for more fixed-price electricity contracts to improve price stability. The changes will result in rebates, and thus savings, for domestic electricity bills over the course of the next PSO year beginning in October. This further reduction in the PSO levy occurs because of a fall in the relative cost of renewable energy, compared to fossil fuel generation.

The Government has also approved the final results of the second onshore Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS 2) auction, echoing how Ontario's electricity auctions have aimed to lower costs for consumers. This will bring significantly more indigenous wind, solar and hydro-electric energy onto the National Grid. This, in turn, will reduce our reliance on increasingly expensive imported fossil fuels, as the UK explores ending the gas-electricity price link to curb bills.

The package also includes Government approval for the provision of funding for back-up generation capacity, to address risks to security of electricity supply over the coming winters, similar to the UK's forthcoming energy security law approach in this area. The Commission for the Regulation of Utilities (CRU), which has statutory responsibility for security of supply, has directed EirGrid to procure additional temporary emergency generation capacity (for the winters of 2023/2024 to 2025/2026). This will ultimately provide flexible and temporary back-up capacity, to safeguard secure supplies of electricity for households and businesses as we deploy longer-term generation capacity.

Today’s measures also see an increased borrowing limit (€3 billion) for EirGrid – to strengthen our National Grid as part of 'Shaping Our Electricity Future' and to deliver the Celtic (Ireland-France) Interconnector, amid wider European moves to revamp the electricity market that could enhance cross-border resilience. An increased borrowing limit (€650 million) for Bord na Móna will drive greater deployment of indigenous renewable energy across the Midlands and beyond – as part of its 'Brown to Green' strategy, while measures like the UK's household energy price cap illustrate the scale of consumer support elsewhere.

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DOE Wind Energy Funding backs 13 R&D projects advancing offshore wind, distributed energy, and utility-scale turbines, including microgrids, battery storage, nacelle and blade testing, tall towers, and rural grid integration across the United States.

Key Points

DOE Wind Energy Funding is a $28M R&D effort in offshore, distributed, and utility-scale wind to lower cost and risk.

✅ $6M for rural microgrids, storage, and grid integration.

✅ $7M for offshore R&D, nacelle and long-blade testing.

✅ Up to $10M demos; $5M for tall tower technology.

The U.S. Department of Energy announced that in order to advance wind energy in the U.S., 13 projects have been selected to receive $28 million. Project topics focus on technology development while covering distributed, offshore wind growth and utility-scale wind found on land.

The selections were announced by the DOE’s Assistant Secretary for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Daniel R. Simmons, at the American Wind Energy Association Offshore Windpower Conference in Boston, as New York's offshore project momentum grows nationwide.

Wind Project Awards

According to the DOE, four Wind Innovations for Rural Economic Development projects will receive a total of $6 million to go toward supporting rural utilities via facilitating research drawing on U.K. wind lessons for deployment that will allow wind projects to integrate with other distributed energy resources.

These endeavors include:

Bergey WindPower (Norman, Oklahoma) working on developing a standardized distributed wind/battery/generator micro-grid system for rural utilities;

Electric Power Research Institute (Palo Alto, California) working on developing modeling and operations for wind energy and battery storage technologies, as large-scale projects in New York progress, that can both help boost wind energy and facilitate rural grid stability;

Iowa State University (Ames, Iowa) working on optimization models and control algorithms to help rural utilities balance wind and other energy resources; and

The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (Arlington, Virginia) providing the development of standardized wind engineering options to help rural-area adoption of wind.

Another six projects are to receive a total of $7 million to facilitate research and development in offshore wind, as New York site investigations advance, with these projects including:

Clemson University (North Charleston, South Carolina) improving offshore-scale wind turbine nacelle testing via a “hardware-in-the-loop capability enabling concurrent mechanical, electrical and controller testing on the 7.5-megawatt dynamometer at its Wind Turbine Drivetrain Testing Facility to accelerate 1 GW on the grid progress”; and

The Massachusetts Clean Energy Center (Boston) upgrading its Wind Technology Testing Center to facilitate structural testing of 85- to 120-meter-long (roughly 278- to 393-foot-long) blades, as BOEM lease requests expand, among other projects.

Additionally, two offshore wind technology demonstration projects will receive up to $10 million for developing initiatives connected to reducing wind energy risk and cost. One last project will also be granted $5 million for the development of tall tower technology that can help overcome restrictions associated with transportation.

“These projects will be instrumental in driving down technology costs and increasing consumer options for wind across the United States as part of our comprehensive energy portfolio,” said Simmons.

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Quinone-mediated fuel cell uses a bio-inspired organic shuttle to carry electrons and protons to a nearby cobalt catalyst, improving hydrogen conversion, cutting platinum dependence, and raising efficiency while lowering costs for clean electricity.

Key Points

An affordable, bio-inspired fuel cell using an organic quinone shuttle and cobalt catalyst to move electrons efficiently

✅ Organic quinone shuttles electrons to a separate cobalt catalyst

✅ Reduces platinum use, lowering cost of hydrogen power

✅ Bio-inspired design aims to boost efficiency and durability

Fuel cells have long been viewed as a promising power source. But most fuel cells are too expensive, inefficient, or both. In a new approach, inspired by biology, a team has designed a fuel cell using cheaper materials and an organic compound that shuttles electrons and protons.

Fuel cells have long been viewed as a promising power source. These devices, invented in the 1830s, generate electricity directly from chemicals, such as hydrogen and oxygen, and produce only water vapor as emissions. But most fuel cells are too expensive, inefficient, or both.

In a new approach, inspired by biology and published today (Oct. 3, 2018) in the journal Joule, a University of Wisconsin-Madison team has designed a fuel cell using cheaper materials and an organic compound that shuttles electrons and protons.

In a traditional fuel cell, the electrons and protons from hydrogen are transported from one electrode to another, where they combine with oxygen to produce water. This process converts chemical energy into electricity. To generate a meaningful amount of charge in a short enough amount of time, a catalyst is needed to accelerate the reactions.

Right now, the best catalyst on the market is platinum -- but it comes with a high price tag, and while advances like low-cost heat-to-electric materials show promise, they address different conversion pathways. This makes fuel cells expensive and is one reason why there are only a few thousand vehicles running on hydrogen fuel currently on U.S. roads.

Shannon Stahl, the UW-Madison professor of chemistry who led the study in collaboration with Thatcher Root, a professor of chemical and biological engineering, says less expensive metals can be used as catalysts in current fuel cells, but only if used in large quantities. "The problem is, when you attach too much of a catalyst to an electrode, the material becomes less effective," he says, "leading to a loss of energy efficiency."

The team's solution was to pack a lower-cost metal, cobalt, into a reactor nearby, where the larger quantity of material doesn't interfere with its performance. The team then devised a strategy to shuttle electrons and protons back and forth from this reactor to the fuel cell.

The right vehicle for this transport proved to be an organic compound, called a quinone, that can carry two electrons and protons at a time. In the team's design, a quinone picks up these particles at the fuel cell electrode, transports them to the nearby reactor filled with an inexpensive cobalt catalyst, and then returns to the fuel cell to pick up more "passengers."

Many quinones degrade into a tar-like substance after only a few round trips. Stahl's lab, however, designed an ultra-stable quinone derivative. By modifying its structure, the team drastically slowed down the deterioration of the quinone. In fact, the compounds they assembled last up to 5,000 hours -- a more than 100-fold increase in lifetime compared to previous quinone structures.

"While it isn't the final solution, our concept introduces a new approach to address the problems in this field," says Stahl. He notes that the energy output of his new design produces about 20 percent of what is possible in hydrogen fuel cells currently on the market. On the other hand, the system is about 100 times more effective than biofuel cells that use related organic shuttles.

The next step for Stahl and his team is to bump up the performance of the quinone mediators, allowing them to shuttle electrons more effectively and produce more power. This advance would allow their design to match the performance of conventional fuel cells, but with a lower price tag.

"The ultimate goal for this project is to give industry carbon-free options for creating electricity, including thermoelectric materials that harvest waste heat," says Colin Anson, a postdoctoral researcher in the Stahl lab and publication co-author. "The objective is to find out what industry needs and create a fuel cell that fills that hole."

This step in the development of a cheaper alternative could eventually be a boon for companies like Amazon and Home Depot that already use hydrogen fuel cells to drive forklifts in their warehouses.

"In spite of major obstacles, the hydrogen economy, with efforts such as storing electricity in pipelines in Europe, seems to be growing," adds Stahl, "one step at a time."

Financial support for this project was provided by the Center for Molecular Electrocatalysis, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, and by the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation (WARF) through the WARF Accelerator Program.

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