EVs go into overdrive

Electric cars are emerging as EVs with improved batteries, home charging, and incentives, balancing emissions goals and energy independence against oil prices, range limits, and recharging times as automakers launch plug-in, hybrid, and hydrogen-electric models.

The promise of gasoline-free driving has yet to be realized, but several car manufacturers are betting that the new decade will see electric and other zero-emissions vehicles pass the tipping point - moving from a niche market to a mainstream option for urban drivers.

Ford, Nissan and BMW have electricity-only cars in limited use, and, after detailing electric car plans at auto shows, plan to have them on dealership floors by 2012. Honda is developing a hydrogen-electric hybrid, and the next generation Toyota Prius will be able to recharge at home, further minimizing its gas consumption.

A number of factors are behind the billions of dollars in research and development businesses are allocating to electric cars. Reducing carbon emissions is one. The cachet among some consumers for green products is another, and initiatives to stir consumer interest in EVs continue to shape demand. In the U.S. energy independence adds a political dimension to the demand for electric. Yet a fundamental factor in the success or failure of electric remains oil prices.

"The price of oil has played a key role in keeping electric cars unaffordable for most drivers, because when gas is cheap alternative fuels can't compete," says Dr. Andrzej Sobiesiak, head of the Department of Mechanical Automotive and Materials Engineering at the University of Windsor. The batteries that store and provide power are expensive to manufacture, maintain, and dispose of. While economies of scale and continuous improvements will see costs fall over time, questions about whether electric cars can become marketable persist as owners of electric cars have not yet broken even on their investment.

In North America, more stringent emissions laws, coupled with rebates and other incentives, are starting to tip the balance away from gas-burning cars. These strategies have been effective in Denmark, where the 200% tax on new car purchases is waived for electric cars, and free parking in downtown Copenhagen is thrown in to the bargain.

California has been at the vanguard of electric car ownership, as the state jump-starts the plug-in race in part due to its anti-smog legislation.

The high costs of owning and operating electric cars aren't the only factor keeping them on the margins. Low top speeds and slow acceleration are part of the electric car's image, and the pros and cons of green cars are still debated, even if the cars themselves have become fast and responsive. Limited range and lengthy recharging times are also liabilities in the eyes of most drivers.

Under optimal conditions, electric-only cars have a range of 150 kilometres or less, and can take up to 12 hours to recharge if plugged in to a standard house outlet. Both extreme temperatures and high speed drain batteries faster. In Canada, this is a much bigger problem than in Europe or the dense urban areas surrounding Los Angeles and New York.

It's also not clear that these cars are truly more environmentally friendly than their gas-burning counterparts. While they don't release any emissions while driving, electric cars are only as green as the energy that powers them, and they will need a lot more power as adoption grows. A gas-free car powered by electricity generated from fossil fuels can ultimately cause more carbon emissions than the most efficient compact cars currently on the market.

"Carbon dioxide can be sequestered more easily at power generation plants than from vehicles on the highway," says Dr. Sobiesiak, which is an advantage of battery-driven motors over internal combustion engines, "but they aren't necessarily reducing fossil fuel consumption."

Batteries themselves bring their own green challenges, since they must be treated as hazardous waste when they expire.

Some critics point to a lack of corporate commitment to explain why so few hybrids, and even fewer purely electric cars, are on the road right now. The 2006 documentary Who Killed the Electric Car? suggests General Motors sabotaged the chances of its battery-powered EV1, and ultimately recalled it, because its success would threaten GM's more profitable SUV lines.

Whether the slate of green cars due to start production this year is due to a change of heart, the desire to be the first to meet this demand or the need to comply with rules about fuel efficiency, every major automaker, and some minor ones, are planning models that will require little or no gasoline.

Manufacturers are also taking aim at another albatross: high prices. While no official prices have been set, Nissan, Ford and Chevrolet are expected to enter the market at between $30,000 and $40,000, raising concerns about sticker shock for early buyers. This is significantly higher than the cost of the hybrid Prius, but still a bargain compared with the Tesla Roadster, the only highway-capable electric car in wide use today, which has a base price of more than $100,000.

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