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Ontario Electricity Export Retaliation signals tariff-fueled trade tensions as Doug Ford leverages cross-border energy flows to the U.S., risking grid reliability, higher power prices, and escalating a Canada-U.S. trade war over protectionist policies.

Key Points

A policy threat by Ontario to cut power exports to U.S. states in response to tariffs, leveraging grid dependence.

✅ Powers about 1.5M U.S. homes in NY, MI, and MN

✅ Risks price spikes, shortages, and legal challenges

✅ Part of Canada's CAD 30B retaliatory tariff package

In a move that underscores the escalating trade tensions between Canada and the United States, Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened to halt electricity exports to U.S. states in retaliation for the Trump administration's recent tariffs. This bold stance highlights Ontario's significant role in powering regions across the U.S. and serves as a warning about the potential consequences of trade disputes.

The Leverage of Ontario's Electricity

Ontario's electricity exports are not merely supplementary; they are essential to the energy supply of several U.S. states. The province provides power to approximately 1.5 million homes in states such as New York, Michigan, and Minnesota, even as it eyes energy independence through domestic initiatives. This substantial export positions Ontario as a key player in the regional energy market, giving the province considerable leverage in trade negotiations.

Premier Ford's Ultimatum

Responding to the Trump administration's imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, Premier Ford, following a Washington meeting, declared, "If they want to play tough, we can play tough." He further emphasized his readiness to act, stating, "I’ll cut them off with a smile on my face." This rhetoric underscores Ontario's willingness to use its energy exports as a bargaining chip in the trade dispute.

Economic and Political Ramifications

The potential cessation of electricity exports to the U.S. would have profound economic implications. U.S. states that rely on Ontario's power could face energy shortages, leading to increased prices, particularly New York energy prices, and potential disruptions. Such an action would not only strain the energy supply but also escalate political tensions, potentially affecting other areas of bilateral cooperation.

Canada's Retaliatory Measures

Ontario's threat is part of a broader Canadian strategy to counteract U.S. tariffs. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth approximately CAD 30 billion, targeting products such as food, textiles, and furniture. These measures aim to pressure the U.S. administration into reconsidering its trade policies.

The Risk of Escalation

While leveraging energy exports provides Ontario with a potent tool, it also carries significant risks, as experts warn against cutting Quebec's energy exports amid tariff tensions. Such actions could lead to a full-blown trade war, with both countries imposing tariffs and export restrictions. The resulting economic fallout could affect various sectors, from manufacturing to agriculture, and lead to job losses and increased consumer prices.

International Trade Relations

The dispute also raises questions about the stability of international trade agreements and the rules governing cross-border energy transactions. Both Canada and the U.S. are signatories to various trade agreements that promote the free flow of goods and services, including energy. Actions like export bans could violate these agreements and lead to legal challenges.

Public Sentiment and Nationalism

The trade tensions have sparked a surge in Canadian nationalism, with public sentiment largely supporting tariffs on energy and minerals as retaliatory measures. This sentiment is evident in actions such as boycotting American products and expressing discontent at public events. However, while national pride is a unifying force, it does not mitigate the potential economic hardships that may result from prolonged trade disputes.

The Path Forward

Navigating this complex situation requires careful diplomacy and negotiation. Both Canada and the U.S. must weigh the benefits of trade against the potential costs of escalating tensions. Engaging in dialogue, seeking compromise, and adhering to international trade laws are essential steps to prevent further deterioration of relations and to ensure the stability of both economies.

Ontario's threat to cut off electricity exports to the U.S. serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global trade and the potential consequences of protectionist policies. While such measures can be effective in drawing attention to grievances, they also risk significant economic and political fallout. As the situation develops, it will be crucial to monitor the responses of both governments and the impact on industries and consumers alike, including growing support for Canadian energy projects among stakeholders.

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British Columbia Bomb Cyclone disrupts coastal travel with severe wind gusts, heavy rainfall, widespread power outages, ferry cancellations, flooding, and landslides across Vancouver Island, straining emergency services and transport networks during the early holiday season.

Key Points

A rapidly intensifying storm hitting B.C.'s coast, causing damaging winds, heavy rain, power outages, and ferry delays.

✅ Wind gusts over 100 km/h and well above normal rainfall

✅ Power outages, flooded roads, and downed trees across the coast

✅ Ferry cancellations isolating communities and delaying supplies

A powerful storm, dubbed a "bomb cyclone," recently struck the British Columbia coast, wreaking havoc across the region. This intense weather system led to widespread disruptions, including power outages affecting tens of thousands of residents and the cancellation of ferry services, crucial for travel between coastal communities. The bomb cyclone is characterized by a rapid drop in pressure, resulting in extremely strong winds and heavy rainfall. These conditions caused significant damage, particularly along the coast and on Vancouver Island, where flooding and landslides led to fallen trees blocking roads, further complicating recovery efforts.

The storm's ferocity was especially felt in coastal areas, where wind gusts reached over 100 km/h, and rainfall totals were well above normal. The Vancouver region, already susceptible to storms during the winter months, faced dangerous conditions as power lines were downed, and transportation networks struggled to stay operational. Emergency services were stretched thin, responding to multiple weather-related incidents, including fallen trees, damaged infrastructure, and local flooding.

The ferry cancellations further isolated communities, especially those dependent on these services for essential supplies and travel. With many ferry routes out of service, residents had to rely on alternative transportation methods, which were often limited. The storm's timing, close to the start of the holiday season, also created additional challenges for those trying to make travel arrangements for family visits and other festive activities.

As cleanup efforts got underway, authorities warned that recovery would take time, particularly due to the volume of downed trees and debris. Crews worked to restore power and clear roads, while local governments urged people to stay indoors and avoid unnecessary travel, and BC Hydro's winter payment plan provided billing relief during outages. For those without power, the storm brought cold temperatures, and record electricity demand in 2021 showed how cold snaps strain the grid, making it crucial for families to find warmth and supplies.

In the aftermath of the bomb cyclone, experts highlighted the increasing frequency of such extreme weather events, driven in part by climate change and prolonged drought across the province. With the potential for more intense storms in the future, the region must be better prepared for these rapid weather shifts. Authorities are now focused on bolstering infrastructure to withstand such events, as all-time high demand has strained the grid recently, and improving early warning systems to give communities more time to prepare.

In the coming weeks, as British Columbia continues to recover, lessons learned from this storm will inform future responses to similar weather systems. For now, residents are advised to remain vigilant and prepared for any additional weather challenges, with recent blizzard and extreme cold in Alberta illustrating how conditions can deteriorate quickly.

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PG&E Public Safety Power Shutoff reduces wildfire risk during extreme winds, triggering de-energization across the North Bay and Sierra Foothills under red flag warnings, with safety inspections and staged restoration to improve grid resilience.

Key Points

A utility protocol to de-energize lines during extreme fire weather, reducing ignition risks and improving grid safety.

✅ Triggered by red flag warnings, humidity, wind, terrain

✅ Temporary de-energization of transmission and distribution lines

✅ Inspections precede phased restoration to minimize wildfire risk

PG&E purposefully shut off electricity to nearly 60,000 Northern California customers Sunday night, aiming to mitigate wildfire risks from power lines during extreme winds.

Pacific Gas and Electric planned to restore power to 70 percent of affected customers in the North Bay and Sierra Foothills late Monday night. As crews inspect lines for safety by helicopter, vehicles and on foot, the remainder will have power sometime Tuesday.

While it was the first time the company shut off power for public safety, PG&E announced its criteria and procedures for such an event in June, said spokesperson Paul Doherty. After wildfires devastated Northern California's wine country last October, he added, PG&E developed its community wildfire safety program division to make power grids and communities more resilient, and prepares for winter storm season through enhanced local response. 

Two sagging PG&E power lines caused one of those wildfires during heavy winds, killing four people and injuring a firefighter, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection determined earlier this month. Trees or tree branches hitting PG&E power lines started another four wildfires in October 2017. Altogether, the power company has been blamed for igniting 13 wildfires last year.

"We're adapting our electric system our operating practices to improve safety and reliability," Doherty said of the safety program. "That's really the bottom line for us."

Turning off power to so many customers was a "last resort given the extreme fire danger conditions these communities are experiencing," Pat Hogan, senior vice president of electric operations, said in a statement. Conditions that led the company to shut off power included the National Weather Service's red flag fire warnings, humidity levels, sustained winds, temperature, dry fuel and local terrain, Doherty said, amid possible rolling blackouts during grid strain.

The company de-energized more than 78 miles of transmission lines and more than 2,150 miles of distribution power lines Sunday night. Many schools in the area were closed Monday because of the planned power outage, highlighting unequal access to electricity across communities.

Late Saturday and early Sunday, PG&E warned 97,000 customers in 12 counties that the shut off might go into effect. Through automated calls, texts and emails, the company encouraged customers to have drinking water, canned food, flashlights, prescriptions and baby supplies on hand.

Power was also turned off in Southern California on Monday.

San Diego Gas & Electric turned off service to about 360 customers near Cleveland National Forest, where multiple fires have scorched large swaths of land in recent years.

SDG&E has pre-emptively shut off power to customers in the past, most recently in December when 14,000 customers went without power.

Southern California Edison, the primary electric provider across Southern California — including Los Angeles — has a similar power shutoff program. As of Monday night, SCE had yet to turn off power in any of its service areas, a spokesperson told USA TODAY.

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Toronto Electricity Demand Growth underscores IESO projections of rising peak load by 2050, driven by population growth, electrification, new housing density, and tech economy, requiring grid modernization, transmission upgrades, demand response, and local renewable energy.

Key Points

It refers to the projected near-doubling of Toronto's peak load by 2050, driven by electrification and urban growth.

✅ IESO projects peak demand nearly doubling by 2050

✅ Drivers: population, densification, EVs, heat pumps

✅ Solutions: efficiency, transmission, storage, demand response

Toronto faces a significant challenge in meeting the growing electricity needs of its expanding population and ambitious development plans. According to a new report from Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), Toronto's peak electricity demand is expected to nearly double by 2050. This highlights the need for proactive steps to secure adequate electricity supply amidst the city's ongoing economic and population growth.

Key Factors Driving Demand

Several factors are contributing to the projected increase in electricity demand:

Population Growth: Toronto is one of the fastest-growing cities in North America, and this trend is expected to continue. More residents mean more need for housing, businesses, and other electricity-consuming infrastructure.

• New Homes and Density: The city's housing strategy calls for 285,000 new homes within the next decade, including significant densification in existing neighbourhoods. High-rise buildings in urban centers are generally more energy-intensive than low-rise residential developments.
• Economic Development: Toronto's robust economy, a hub for tech and innovation, attracts new businesses, including energy-intensive AI data centers that fuel further demand for electricity.
• Electrification: The push to reduce carbon emissions is driving the electrification of transportation and home heating, further increasing pressure on Toronto's electricity grid.

Planning for the Future

Ontario and the City of Toronto recognize the urgency to secure stable and reliable electricity supplies to support continued growth and prosperity without sacrificing affordability, drawing lessons from British Columbia's clean energy shift to inform local approaches. Officials are collaborating to develop a long-term plan that focuses on:

• Energy Efficiency: Efforts aim to reduce wasteful electricity usage through upgrades to existing buildings, promoting energy-efficient appliances, and implementing smart grid technologies. These will play a crucial role in curbing overall demand.
• New Infrastructure: Significant investments in building new electricity generation, transmission lines, and substations, as well as regional macrogrids to enhance reliability, will be necessary to meet the projected demands of Toronto's future.
• Demand Management: Programs incentivizing energy conservation during peak hours will help to avoid strain on the grid and reduce the need to build expensive power plants only used at peak demand times.

Challenges Ahead

The path ahead isn't without its hurdles.  Building new power infrastructure in a dense urban environment like Toronto can be time-consuming, expensive, and sometimes disruptive, especially as grids face harsh weather risks that complicate construction and operations. Residents and businesses might worry about potential rate increases required to fund these necessary investments.

Opportunity for Innovation

The IESO and the city view the situation as an opportunity to embrace innovative solutions. Exploring renewable energy sources within and near the city, developing local energy storage systems, and promoting distributed energy generation such as rooftop solar, where power is created near the point of use, are all vital strategies for meeting needs in a sustainable way.

Toronto's electricity future depends heavily on proactive planning and investment in modernizing its power infrastructure.  The decisions made now will determine whether the city can support economic growth, address climate goals and a net-zero grid by 2050 ambition, and ensure that lights stay on for all Torontonians as the city continues to expand.
 

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Cal ISO Flex Alert urges Southern California energy conservation as a Stage 2 emergency strains the power grid, with potential rolling blackouts during peak hours from 3 to 10 p.m., if demand exceeds supply.

Key Points

A statewide call to conserve power during high demand, issued by the grid operator to prevent rolling blackouts.

✅ Stage 2 emergency signals severe grid strain

✅ Peak Flex Alert hours: 3 to 10 p.m. statewide

✅ Set thermostats to 78 and avoid major appliances

Residents and businesses across Southern California were urged to conserve power Tuesday afternoon amid ongoing electricity inequities across the state as the manager of the state’s power grid warned rolling blackouts could be imminent for some power customers.

The California Independent System Operator (Cal ISO), which manages the state power grid, declared a Stage 2 emergency as of 2:30 p.m., indicating severe strain on the electrical system, similar to a recent grid alert in Alberta that relied on reserves.

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Rolling blackouts for some customers could occur in a Stage 3 emergency, distinct from the intentional shut-offs some utilities use to reduce wildfire risk.

Cal ISO issued a statewide Flex Alert in effect from 3 to 10 p.m. Tuesday and Wednesday, with conservation considered especially critical during those hours, a concern heightened by pandemic-era grid operations this year.

Officials told reporters rolling blackouts might be avoided Tuesday evening if residents repeat the level of conservation seen Monday.
“If we can get the same sort of response we got yesterday, we can minimize this, or perhaps avoid it altogether,” Cal-ISO President/CEO Steve Berberich said, noting that some operators have even planned staff lockdowns during COVID-19 to maintain reliability.

Cal-ISO controls roughly 80% of the state’s power grid through Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas and Electric Co., with the utility recently restoring power after shut-offs in affected communities, and San Diego Gas & Electric.

Residents are urged to set thermostats at 78 in the afternoon and evening hours and avoiding the use of air conditioning and major appliances during the Flex Alert hours, as utilities like PG&E prepare for winter storms to improve resilience.

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Energy Vault Gravity Storage uses crane-stacked concrete blocks to deliver long-duration, grid-scale renewable energy; a SoftBank Vision Fund-backed, pumped-hydro analog enabling baseload power and a lithium-ion alternative with proprietary control algorithms.

Key Points

Gravity-based cranes stack blocks to store and dispatch power for hours, enabling grid-scale, low-cost storage.

✅ 4 MW/35 MWh modules; ~9-hour duration

✅ Estimated $200-$250/kWh; lower LCOE than lithium-ion

✅ Backed by SoftBank Vision Fund; Cemex and Tata support

Energy Vault, the Swiss-U.S. startup that says it can store and discharge electrical energy through a super-sized concrete-and-steel version of a child’s erector set, has landed a $110 million investment from Japan’s SoftBank Vision Fund to take its technology to commercial scale.

Energy Vault, a spinout of Pasadena-based incubator Idealab and co-founded by Idealab CEO and billionaire investor Bill Gross, unstealthed in November with its novel approach to using gravity to store energy.

Simply put, Energy Vault plans to build storage plants — dubbed “Evies” — consisting of a 35-story crane with six arms, surrounded by a tower consisting of thousands of concrete bricks, each weighing about 35 tons.

This plant will “store” energy by using electricity to run the cranes that lift bricks from the ground and stack them atop of the tower, and “discharge” energy by reversing that process. It’s a mechanical twist on the world’s most common energy storage technology, pumped hydro, which “stores” energy by pumping water uphill, and lets it fall to spin turbines when electricity is needed, even as California funds 100-hour long-duration storage pilots to expand flexibility worldwide.

But behind this simplicity lies some heavy-duty software to orchestrate the cranes and blocks, with a "unique stack of proprietary algorithms" to balance energy supply and demand, volatility, grid stability, weather elements and other variables.

CEO and co-founder Robert Piconi said in a November interview with GTM that the standard array would deliver 4 megawatts/35 megawatt-hours of storage, which translates to nearly 9 hours of duration — the equivalent of building the tower to its height, and then reducing it to ground level. It can be built on-site in partnership with crane manufacturers and recycled concrete material, and can run fully automated for decades with little deterioration, he said.

And the cost, which Piconi pegged in the $200 to $250 per kilowatt-hour range, with room to decline further, is roughly 50 percent below the upfront price of the conventional storage market today, and 80 percent below it on levelized cost, he said, a trend utilities see benefits in as they plan resources.

The result, according to Wednesday’s statement, is a technology that could allow “renewables to deliver baseload power for less than the cost of fossil fuels 24 hours a day,” in applications such as community microgrids serving low-income housing.

Wednesday’s announcement builds on a recent investment from Mexico's Cemex Ventures, the corporate venture capital unit of building materials giant Cemex, along with a promise of deployment support from Cemex's strategic network, and also follows project financing for a California green hydrogen microgrid led by the company. Piconi said in November that the company had sufficient investment from two funding rounds to carry it through initial customer deployments, though he declined to disclose figures.

This is the first energy storage investment for Vision Fund, the $100 billion venture fund set up by SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son. While large by startup standards, it’s in keeping with the capital costs that Energy Vault will face in scaling up its technology to meet its commitments, amid mounting demand in regions like Ontario energy storage that face supply crunches. Those include a 35 megawatt-hour order with Tata Power Company, the energy-producing arm of the Indian industrial conglomerate, first unveiled in November, as well as plans to demonstrate its first storage tower in northern Italy in 2019.

For Vision Fund, it’s also an unusual choice for a storage investment, given that the vast majority of venture capital in the industry today is being directed toward lithium-ion batteries, and even Mercedes-Benz energy storage ventures targeting the U.S. market. Lithium-ion batteries are limited in terms of how many hours they can provide cost-effectively, with about 4 hours being seen as the limit today.

The search for long-duration energy storage has driven investment into flow battery technologies such as grid-scale vanadium systems deployed on utility networks, compressed-air energy storage and variations on gravity-based storage, including a previous startup backed by Gross and Idealab, Energy Cache, whose idea of using a ski lift carrying buckets of gravel up a hill to store energy petered out with a 50-kilowatt pilot project.

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