Romanian CANDU Project at full power

By Canada News Wire


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The European Union's second CANDU nuclear power plant has achieved continuous full power and has been placed in service.

Cernavoda Unit 2 CANDU nuclear power station was officially commissioned on October 5 during ceremonies attended by Romanian Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu and senior officials from Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL).

"Today marks a significant achievement for both Canada and Romania," said AECL Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer Ken Petrunik. "With Cernavoda's Unit 2 CANDU nuclear power plant achieving in-service operation, it joins Unit 1 to make the CNE-Cernavoda Station the largest power producer in the country. The AECL designed CANDU station has matured to be a world-class operation."

A consortium of AECL and Ansaldo Nuclear of Italy, along with the Societatea Nationala Nuclearelectrica (SNN) SA, Romania's nuclear public utility, were contracted in 2003 to manage the construction of the partially completed Unit 2 power plant and to commission it into service.

Mr. Petrunik noted that the Cernavoda Unit 2 project included about $500 million in Canadian content for sophisticated equipment and components, as well as professional engineering, project management and other technical services. The project created about 5,500 person years of direct employment in Canada, mainly in high-end manufacturing in Ontario.

Cernavoda Unit 2 is the second in a series of 700-megawatt CANDU 6 power plants to be completed and is located approximately 165 kilometres east of Bucharest. Cernavoda Unit 1 CANDU nuclear power plant began operating at full power in 1996 and has had record capacity factors of 90 per cent since 2005. Unit 1 recently completed over 300 days without an interruption in service.

Mr. Petrunik added, "The successful completion of the Unit 2 project can be attributed to the excellent performance of the AECL-led project management team and a strong partnership with our customer SNN. It also demonstrates the readiness of the CANDU supply chain for on time delivery of the materials and services. Canada and AECL have had a key role in this recent nuclear achievement and it is a source of pride for the Canadian nuclear industry."

Martyn Wash, President of the Organization of CANDU Industries (OCI) stated, "We congratulate SNN on the successful completion of Cernavoda Unit 2. Our Ontario-based members are pleased to have been involved as it created hundreds of millions of dollars of work for Canadian industry."

Nuclear power now accounts for about 20 per cent of Romania's energy supply and significantly reduces its dependency on expensive energy resources from outside of Europe. Canada's CANDU technology has contributed to Romania's healthy nuclear industry, and has proven to be an important economic asset for the country. CANDU technology also enhances energy self-sufficiency as both nuclear fuel and heavy water are produced by Romania.

"By using nuclear power, Romania is able to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 10 million tonnes each year. AECL is pleased to be part of the success of Cernavoda with its strong performance and we look forward to the continuation and enhancement of this success story," added Mr. Petrunik.

Romania is currently preparing for the completion of Units 3 and 4 in the series of CANDU power plants, thus allowing AECL's partnership in Romania to continue in the coming years. In addition, AECL's Advanced CANDU Reactor (ACR-1000) has been selected as the technology of choice for several Canadian markets, including Alberta, where a site application has been filed for two twin-units, and New Brunswick, where a feasibility study is underway.

Internationally, the ACR-1000 has been selected by the United Kingdom as one of four technologies to be reviewed in its Generic Design Assessment process for new nuclear.

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Ontario takes constitutional challenge of its global adjustment electricity fee to Supreme Court

Ontario Global Adjustment Supreme Court Appeal spotlights a constitutional challenge to Ontario's electricity charge, pitting National Steel Car against the IESO over regulatory charge vs tax, procurement policy, and renewable energy feed-in tariff contracts.

 

Key Points

An SCC leave bid on whether Ontario's global adjustment is a valid regulatory charge or an unconstitutional tax.

✅ Appeals Court revived case for full record review

✅ Dispute centers on regulatory charge vs tax classification

✅ FIT renewables contracts and procurement policies at issue

 

The Ontario government wants the Supreme Court of Canada to weigh in on a constitutional challenge being brought against a large provincial electricity charge, a case the province claims raises issues of national importance.

Ontario’s attorney general and its Independent Electricity System Operator applied for permission to appeal to the Supreme Court in January, according to the court’s website.

The province is trying to appeal a Court of Appeal decision reinstating the challenge from November that said a legal challenge by Hamilton, Ont.-based National Steel Car Ltd. should be sent back to a lower-court for a full hearing.

Court reinstates constitutional challenge to Ontario's hefty ‘global adjustment’ electricity charge
National Steel Car appealing decision in legal challenge of Ontario electricity fee it calls an unconstitutional tax
Doug Ford’s cancellation of green energy deals costs Ontario taxpayers $231 million
National Steel Car launched its legal challenge in 2017, with the maker of steel rail cars claiming the province’s global adjustment electricity charge was a tax intended to fund certain post-financial-crisis policy goals. Since it is allegedly a tax, and one not imposed by the provincial legislature, the company’s argument is the global adjustment is unconstitutional, and also in breach of a provincial law requiring a referendum for new taxes.

The global adjustment mostly bridges the gap between the province’s hourly electricity price and the price guaranteed under contracts and regulated rates with power generators. It also helps cover the cost of building new electricity infrastructure and providing conservation programs, but the fee now makes up most of the commodity portion of a household power bill in the province.

Ontario argued the global adjustment is a valid regulatory charge, and moved to have National Steel Car’s challenge thrown out. An Ontario Superior Court judge agreed, and dismissed the challenge in 2018, saying it was “plain, obvious and beyond doubt” it could not succeed. However, an appeals court judge disagreed, writing in a decision last November that the “merits should not have been determined on a pleadings motion and without the development of a full record.”

In filings made to the Supreme Court, both the IESO and Ontario’s Ministry of the Attorney General argued their proposed appeals raise “issues of national and public importance,” such as whether incorporating environmental and social policy goals in procurement could turn attempts by a public body to recover costs into an unconstitutional tax.

Most applications for leave to appeal to the Supreme Court are dismissed, but the Ontario government claims the court’s guidance is required in this case, as it could lead to questions being raised about other fees or charges, such as money raised from fishing licences.

“A failure to dispose of this claim at the pleadings stage may well result in such uncertainty that public authorities across Canada decline to incorporate the kind of environmental and social policy goals objected to in this case into the decisions they make about how to spend funds raised from regulatory charges,” the filing from the attorney general states. “Alternatively, it may induce governments not to engage in cost recovery in connection with publicly supplied goods and services, which can otherwise be sound public policy.”

The government has so far had to pay National Steel Car $250,000 in legal costs “to avoid responding to the credible claim that the Global Adjustment is an unconstitutional tax,” said David Trafford of Morse Shannon LLP, one of National Steel Car’s lawyers.

“The application for leave to appeal is the next step in this effort to avoid having to respond to the case on the merits,” Trafford added in an email.

The application for leave to appeal is the next step in this effort to avoid having to respond to the case on the merits

David Trafford of Morse Shannon, one of National Steel Car’s lawyers
 
National Steel Car has particularly taken issue with the part of the global adjustment that funded contracts for renewable energy under a “feed-in tariff” program, or FIT, which the company called “the main culprit behind the dramatic price increases for electricity.”

The FIT program has been ended, but contracts awarded under it remain in place and form part of the global adjustment. Ontario’s auditor general estimated in 2015 that electricity consumers would pay $9.2 billion more for renewable energy under the government’s guaranteed-price program, a figure that later featured in a dispute between the auditor and the electricity regulator that drew political attention.

National Steel Car said its global adjustment costs grew from $207,260 in 2008 to almost $3.4 million in 2016, reflecting how high electricity rates have pressured manufacturers, to almost $3.4 million in 2016. For 2018, there was approximately $11.2 billion in global adjustment collected, according to the IESO’s reporting.

A spokesperson for the IESO said it “is not in a position to comment” because the case is still before the courts.

Electricity prices have been an ongoing problem for both Ontario consumers and politicians, which the previous Liberal government tried to address in 2017 by, among other things, refinancing global-adjustment costs through the Fair Hydro Plan and other measures.

Since National Steel Car filed its lawsuits, though, the Liberals lost power in the province and were succeeded in 2018 by Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, who made changes to the previous government’s power policies, including legislation to lower electricity rates introduced early in their mandate.

The province has also pursued interprovincial power arrangements, including building on an electricity deal with Quebec as part of its broader energy strategy.

“The present government of Ontario does not agree with the former government’s electricity procurement program, which ceased awarding new contracts in 2016,” Ontario’s attorney general said in a filing. “However, Ontario submits that (the lower-court judge) was correct in holding that it does not give rise to a claim susceptible to being remedied by the courts.”

 

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California Halts Energy Rebate Program Amid Trump Freeze

California energy rebate freeze disrupts heat pump incentives, HVAC upgrades, and climate funding, as federal uncertainty stalls Inflation Reduction Act support, delaying home electrification, energy efficiency gains, and greenhouse gas emissions reductions statewide.

 

Key Points

A statewide pause on $290M incentives for heat pumps and HVAC upgrades due to federal climate funding uncertainty.

✅ $290M program paused amid federal funding freeze

✅ Heat pump, HVAC, electrification upgrades delayed

✅ Previously approved rebates honored; new apps halted

 

California’s push for a more energy-efficient future has hit a significant roadblock as the state pauses a $290 million rebate program aimed at helping homeowners replace inefficient heating and cooling systems with more energy-efficient alternatives. The California Energy Commission announced the suspension of the program, citing uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze funding for various climate-related initiatives.

The Halted Program

The energy rebate program, which utilizes federal funding to encourage the use of energy-efficient appliances such as heat pumps, was a crucial part of California’s efforts to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. By providing financial incentives for homeowners to upgrade to more efficient heating and cooling systems, the program aimed to make green energy solutions more accessible and affordable to residents. The rebate program had been popular, with many homeowners eager to participate in the initiative to lower their energy costs and improve the sustainability of their homes.

However, due to the uncertainty surrounding federal funding, the California Energy Commission announced on Monday that it would no longer be accepting new applications for the program. The agency did clarify that it would continue to honor rebates for applications that had already been approved. The pause will remain in effect until the Trump administration provides more clarity regarding the program's future funding.

The Trump Administration’s Role

This move highlights a broader issue regarding access to federal funding for state-level energy programs. The Trump administration’s decision to freeze funding for climate-related initiatives has left many states in limbo, as previously approved federal money has not been distributed as expected. Despite federal court rulings directing the Trump administration to restore these funds, states like California are still struggling to navigate the uncertainty of climate-related financial support from the federal government.

California’s decision to pause the rebate program comes after similar actions by other states. Arizona paused a similar program just a week prior, and Rhode Island had already paused new applications earlier this year. These states are all recipients of funding from a larger $4.3 billion initiative under the Inflation Reduction Act, which is designed to help homeowners purchase energy-efficient appliances like heat pumps, water heaters, and electric cooktops.

Impact of the Freeze

The pause of California's rebate program has serious implications for both consumers and the state’s energy goals. For residents, the halt means delays in the ability to upgrade to more energy-efficient home systems, which could lead to higher energy costs in the short term, a concern amid soaring electricity prices across the state.

The $290 million program was a significant step in encouraging homeowners to invest in energy efficiency, and its suspension leaves a gap in the availability of resources for those who were hoping to make energy-saving upgrades. Many of these upgrades are not just beneficial to homeowners, but they also contribute to the state’s overall energy efficiency goals, helping to reduce reliance on non-renewable energy sources, even as California's dependence on fossil fuels persists, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions.

Federal and State Tensions

The freeze in funding is just one of many points of tension between the Trump administration and states like California, which have pursued aggressive environmental policies aimed at reducing emissions and combating climate change. California has often found itself at odds with the federal government on environmental issues, especially under the leadership of President Trump. The state’s ambitious environmental policies have sometimes clashed with the federal government's approach, including efforts to wind down its fossil fuel industry in line with climate goals.

In this case, the freeze on climate-related funding appears to be part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to limit federal spending on environmental programs, and as regulators weigh whether the state may need more power plants, planning remains complex. While the freeze impacts states that are working to transition to clean energy, critics argue that such moves undermine efforts to tackle climate change and could slow down progress toward a greener future.

The Path Forward

For California, the next steps will depend heavily on the actions of the federal government. While the state can continue to push for climate funding in the courts, the lack of clarity around the release of federal funds creates uncertainty for state programs that rely on these resources. As California continues to navigate this funding freeze, it will need to explore alternative solutions to keep its energy efficiency programs on track, such as efforts to revamp electricity rates to clean the grid, even in the face of federal challenges.

In the meantime, California residents and homeowners who were hoping to take advantage of the rebate program may have to wait until further clarification from the federal government is provided, even as officials warn of a looming electricity shortage in coming years. Whether the program can be restored or expanded in the future remains to be seen, but for now, the pause serves as a reminder of the ongoing struggles that states face when dealing with shifting federal priorities.

As the issue unfolds, other states facing similar challenges may take cues from California’s actions, and with California exporting energy policies to Western states, broader conversations about how federal and state governments can collaborate to ensure that energy efficiency initiatives and climate goals are not sidelined due to political or budgetary differences.

California’s decision to pause its $290 million energy rebate program is a significant development in the ongoing struggle between state and federal governments over climate-related funding. The uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s freeze on energy efficiency programs has led to disruptions in state-level efforts to promote sustainability and reduce emissions. As the situation continues to evolve, both California and other states will need to consider how to move forward without relying on federal funding that may or may not be available in the future.

 

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Germany agrees 200 bln euro package to shield against surging energy prices

Germany Energy Price Defensive Shield counters soaring gas and electricity costs with a gas price brake, VAT cut, subsidies for households and SMEs, LNG terminals, renewables, temporary nuclear extension, and targeted borrowing to curb inflation.

 

Key Points

A 200 billion euro package to cap energy costs, subsidize basics, and stabilize inflation for firms and households.

✅ Gas price brake and VAT cut reduce consumer and SME energy bills.

✅ Temporary electricity subsidies and nuclear extension aid winter supply.

✅ Funded via new borrowing; supports LNG and renewable expansion.

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set out a 200 billion euro ($194 billion) "defensive shield", including a gas price brake and a cut in sales tax for the fuel, to protect companies and households from the impact of soaring energy prices in Germany.

Europe's biggest economy is trying to cope with surging gas and electricity costs, with local utilities seeking help, caused largely by a collapse in Russian gas supplies to Europe, which Moscow has blamed on Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine in February.

3 minute readSeptember 29, 202211:35 AM PDTLast Updated 6 days ago
Germany agrees 200 bln euro package to shield against surging energy prices
By Holger Hansen and Kirsti Knolle

"Prices have to come down, so the government will do everything it can. To this end, we are setting up a large defensive shield," said Scholz.

Under the plans, to run until spring 2024, the government will introduce an emergency price brake on gas, the details of which will be announced next month, while Europe weighs emergency measures to limit electricity prices across the bloc. It is scrapping a planned gas levy meant to help firms struggling with high spot market prices. 

A temporary electricity price brake will subsidise basic consumption for consumers and small and medium-sized companies, and complements an electricity subsidy for industries under discussion. Sales tax on gas will fall to 7% from 19%.

In its efforts to cut its dependence on Russian energy, Germany is also promoting the expansion of renewable energy and developing liquefied gas terminals, but rolling back European electricity prices remains complex.

To help households and companies weather any winter supply disruption, amid rising heating and electricity costs this winter, especially in southern Germany, two nuclear plants previously due to close by the end of this year will be able to keep running until spring 2023.

The package will be financed with new borrowing this year, as Berlin makes use of the suspension of a constitutionally enshrined limit on new debt of 0.35% of gross domestic product.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner has said he wants to comply with the limit again next year, even as the EU outlines gas price cap strategies for the market.

Lindner, of the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) who share power with Scholz's Social Democrats and the Greens, said on Thursday the country's public finances were stable.

"We can put it no other way: we find ourselves in an energy war," said Lindner. "We want to clearly separate crisis expenditure from our regular budget management, we want to send a very clear signal to the capital markets."

He also said the steps would act as a brake on inflation, which hit its highest level in more than a quarter of century in September.

Opposition conservative Markus Soeder, premier of the southern state of Bavaria, said the steps gave the right signal.

"It gives industry and citizens confidence that we can get through the winter," he said.

 

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Canadian Electricity Grids Increasingly Exposed to Harsh Weather

North American Grid Reliability faces extreme weather, climate change, demand spikes, and renewable variability; utilities, AESO, and NERC stress resilience, dispatchable capacity, interconnections, and grid alerts to prevent blackouts during heatwaves and cold snaps.

 

Key Points

North American grid reliability is the ability to meet demand during extreme weather while maintaining stability.

✅ Extreme heat and cold drive record demand and resource strain.

✅ Balance dispatchable and intermittent generation for resilience.

✅ Expand interconnections, capacity, and demand response to avert outages.

 

The recent alerts in Alberta's electricity grid during extreme cold have highlighted a broader North American issue, where power systems are more susceptible to being overwhelmed by extreme weather impacts on reliability.

Electricity Canada's chief executive emphasized that no part of the grid is safe from the escalating intensity and frequency of weather extremes linked to climate change across the sector.

“In recent years, during these extreme weather events, we’ve observed record highs in electricity demand,” he stated.

“It’s a nationwide phenomenon. For instance, last summer in Ontario and last winter in Quebec, we experienced unprecedented demand levels. This pattern of extremes is becoming more pronounced across the country.”

The U.S. has also experienced strain on its electricity grids due to extreme weather, with more blackouts than peers documented in studies. Texas faced power outages in 2021 due to winter storms, and California has had to issue several emergency grid alerts during heat waves.

In Canada, Albertans received a government emergency alert two weeks ago, urging an immediate reduction in electricity use to prevent potential rotating blackouts as temperatures neared -40°C. No blackouts occurred, with a notable decrease in electricity use following the alert, according to the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO).

AESO's data indicates an increase in grid alerts in Alberta for both heatwaves and cold spells, reflecting dangerous vulnerabilities noted nationwide. The period between 2017 and 2020 saw only four alerts, in contrast to 17 since 2021.

Alberta's electricity grid reliability has sparked political debate, including proposals for a western Canadian grid to improve reliability, particularly with the transition from coal-fired plants to increased reliance on intermittent wind and solar power. Despite this debate, the AESO noted that the crisis eased when wind and solar generation resumed, despite challenges with two idled gas plants.

Bradley pointed out that Alberta's grid issues are not isolated. Every Canadian region is experiencing growing electricity demand, partly due to the surge in electric vehicles and clean energy technologies. No province has a complete solution yet.

“Ontario has had to request reduced consumption during heatwaves,” he noted. “Similar concerns about energy mix are present in British Columbia or Manitoba, especially now with drought affecting their hydro-dependent systems.”

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released a report in November warning of elevated risks across North America this winter for insufficient energy supplies, particularly under extreme conditions like prolonged cold snaps.

While the U.S. is generally more susceptible to winter grid disruptions, and summer blackout warnings remain a concern, the report also highlights risks in parts of Canada. Saskatchewan faces a “high” risk due to increased demand, power plant retirements, and maintenance, whereas Quebec and the Maritimes are at “elevated risk.”

Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of reliability assessments, mentioned that Alberta wasn't initially considered at risk, illustrating the challenges in predicting electricity demand amid intensifying extreme weather.

Rob Thornton, president and CEO of the International District Energy Association, acknowledged public concerns about grid alerts but reassured that the risk of a catastrophic grid failure remains very low.

“The North American grid is exceptionally reliable. It’s a remarkably efficient system,” he said.

However, Thornton emphasized the importance of policies for a resilient and reliable electricity system through 2050 and beyond. This involves balancing dispatchable and intermittent electricity sources, investing in extra capacity, enhancing macrogrids and inter-jurisdictional connections, and more.

“These grid alerts raise awareness, if not anxiety, about our energy future,” Thornton concluded.

 

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Will Israeli power supply competition bring cheaper electricity?

Israel Electricity Reform Competition opens the supply segment to private suppliers, challenges IEC price controls, and promises consumer choice, marginal discounts, and market liberalization amid natural gas generation and infrastructure remaining with IEC.

 

Key Points

Policy opening 40% of supply to private vendors, enabling consumer choice and small discounts while IEC retains the grid.

✅ 40% of retail supply opened to private electricity suppliers

✅ IEC keeps meters, lines; tariffs still regulated by the authority

✅ Expected discounts near 7%, not dramatic price cuts initially

 

"See the pseudo-reform in the electricity sector: no lower prices, no opening the market to competition, and no choice of electricity suppliers, with a high rate for consumers despite natural gas." This is an advertisement by the Private Power Producers Forum that is appearing everywhere: Facebook, the Internet, billboards, and the press.

Is it possible that the biggest reform in the economy with a cost estimated by Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) (TASE: ELEC.B22) at NIS 7 billion is really a pseudo-reform? In contrast to the assertions by the private electricity producers, who are supposedly worried about our wallets and want to bring down the cost of electricity for us, the reform will open a segment of electricity supply to competition, as agreed in the final discussions about the reform. No less than 40% of this segment will be removed from IEC's exclusive responsibility and pass to private hands.

This means that in the not-too-distant future, one million households in Israel will be able to choose between different electricity suppliers. IEC will retain the infrastructure, with its meter and power lines, but for the first time, the supplier who sends the monthly bill to our home can be a private concern.

Up until now, the only regulatory agency determining the electricity rate in Israel was the Public Utilities Authority (electricity), i.e. the state. Now, in the framework of the reform, as a result of opening the supply segment to competition, private electricity producers will be able to offer a lower rate than IEC's, with mechanisms like electricity auctions shown to cut costs in some markets, while IEC's rate will still be controlled by the Public Utilities Authority (electricity).

This situation differs from the situation in almost all European countries, where the electricity market is fully open to competition and the EU is pursuing an electricity market revamp to address pricing challenges, with no electricity price controls and free switching by consumers between electricity producers, just as in the mobile phone market. This measure has not lowered electricity prices in Europe, where rates are higher than in Israel, which is in the bottom third of OECD countries in its electricity rate.

Regardless of reports, supply will be opened to competition and we will be able to choose between electricity suppliers in the future. Are the private electricity producers nevertheless right when they say that the electricity sector will not be opened to "real competition"?

 

What is obviously necessary is for the private producers to offer a substantially lower rate than IEC in order to attract as many new customers as possible and win their trust. Can the private producers offer a significantly lower rate than IEC? The answer is no, at least not in the near future. The teams handling the negotiations are aware of this. "The private supplier's price will not be significantly cheaper than IEC's controlled price; there will be marginal discounts," a senior government source explains. "What is involved here is another electricity intermediary, so it will not contribute to competition and lowering the price," he added.

There are already private electricity producers supplying electricity to large business customers - factories, shopping malls, and so forth - at a 7% discount. The rest of the electricity that they produce is sold to the system manager. When supply is opened to competition, it can be assumed that the private suppliers will also be able to offer a similar discount to private consumers.

Will a 7% discount cause a home consumer to leave reliable and familiar IEC for a private producer, given evidence from retail electricity competition in other markets? This is hard to know.

#google#

Why cannot private electricity producers offer a larger discount that will really break the monopoly, as their advertisement says they want to do? Chen Herzog, chief economist and partner at BDO Consulting, which is advising the Private Power Producers Forum, says, "Competition in supply requires the construction of competitive power plants that can compete and offer cheaper electricity.

"The power plants that IEC will sell in the reform, which will go on selling electricity to IEC, are outmoded, inefficient, and non-competitive. In addition, the producer will have to continue employing IEC workers in the purchased plants for at least five years. The producer will generate electricity in IEC power stations with IEC employees and additional overhead of a private producer, with factors such as cost allocation further shaping end-user rates. This amounts to being an IEC subcontractor in production. There is no saving on costs, so there will be no surplus to deduct from the consumer price," he adds.

The idea of opening supply to electricity market competition on such a large scale sounds promising, but saving on electricity for consumers still looks a long way off.

 

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Four Facts about Covid and U.S. Electricity Consumption

COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Electricity Consumption shows commercial and industrial demand dropped as residential use rose, with flattened peak loads, weekday-weekend convergence, Texas hourly data, and energy demand as a real-time economic indicator.

 

Key Points

It reduced commercial and industrial demand while raising residential use, shifting peaks and weekday patterns.

✅ Commercial electricity down 12%; industrial down 14% in Q2 2020

✅ Residential use up 10% amid work-from-home and lockdowns

✅ Peaks flattened; weekday-weekend loads converged in Texas

 

This is an important turning point for the United States. We have a long road ahead. But one of the reasons I’m optimistic about Biden-Harris is that we will once again have an administration that believes in science.

To embrace this return to science, I want to write today about a fascinating new working paper by Tufts economist Steve Cicala.

Professor Cicala has been studying the effect of Covid on electricity consumption since back in March, when the Wall Street Journal picked up his work documenting an 18% decrease in electricity consumption in Italy.

The new work, focused on the United States, is particularly compelling because it uses data that allows him to distinguish between residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, against a backdrop of declining U.S. electricity sales over recent years.

Without further ado, here are four facts he uncovers about Covid and U.S. electricity demand during COVID-19 and consumption.

 

Fact #1: Firms Are Using Less
U.S. commercial electricity consumption fell 12% during the second quarter of 2020. U.S. industrial electricity consumption fell 14% over the same period.

This makes sense. The second quarter was by some measures, the worst quarter for the U.S. economy in over 145 years!

Economic activity shrank. Schools closed. Offices closed. Factories closed. Restaurants closed. Malls closed. Even health care offices closed as patients delayed going to the dentist and other routine care. All this means less heating and cooling, less lighting, less refrigeration, less power for computers and other office equipment, less everything.

The decrease in the industrial sector is a little more surprising. My impression had been that the industrial sector had not fallen as far as commercial, but amid broader disruptions in coal and nuclear power that strained parts of the energy economy, the patterns for both sectors are quite similar with the decline peaking in May and then partially rebounding by July. The paper also shows that areas with higher unemployment rates experienced larger declines in both sectors.

 

Fact #2: Households Are Using More
While firms are using less, households are using more. U.S. residential electricity consumption increased 10% during the second quarter of 2020. Consumption surged during March, April, and May, a reflection of the lockdown lifestyle many adopted, and then leveled off in June and July – with much less of the rebound observed on the commercial/industrial side.

This pattern makes sense, too. In Professor Cicala’s words, “people are spending an inordinate amount of time at home”. Many of us switched over to working from home almost immediately, and haven’t looked back. This means more air conditioning, more running the dishwasher, more CNN (especially last week), more Zoom, and so on.

The paper also examines the correlates of the decline. Areas in the U.S. where more people can work from home experienced larger increases. Unemployment rates, however, are almost completely uncorrelated with the increase.

 

Fact #3: Firms are Less Peaky
The paper next turns to a novel dataset from Texas, where Texas grid reliability is under active discussion, that makes it possible to measure hourly electricity consumption by sector.

As the figure above illustrates, the biggest declines in commercial/industrial electricity consumption have occurred Monday through Friday between 9AM and 5PM.

The dashed line shows the pattern during 2019. Notice the large spikes in electricity consumption during business hours. The solid line shows the pattern during 2020. Much smaller spikes during business hours.

 

Fact #4: Everyday is Like Sunday
Finally, we have what I would like to nominate as the “Energy Figure of the Year”.

Again, start with the pattern for 2019, reflected by the dashed line. Prior to Covid, Texas households used a lot more electricity on Saturdays and Sundays.

Then along comes Covid, and turned every day into the weekend. Residential electricity consumption in Texas during business hours Monday-Friday is up 16%(!).

In the pattern for 2020, it isn’t easy to distinguish weekends from weekdays. If you feel like weekdays and weekends are becoming a big blur – you are not alone.

 

Conclusion
Researchers are increasingly thinking about electricity consumption as a real-time indicator of economic activity, even as flat electricity demand complicates utility planning and investment. This is an intriguing idea, but Professor Cicala’s new paper shows that it is important to look sector-by-sector.

While commercial and industrial consumption indeed seem to measure the strength of an economy, residential consumption has been sharply countercylical – increasing exactly when people are not at work and not at school.

These large changes in behavior are specific to the pandemic. Still, with the increased blurring of home and non-home activities we may look back on 2020 as a key turning point in how we think about these three sectors of the economy.

More broadly, Professor Cicala’s paper highlights the value of social science research. We need facts, data, and yes, science, if we are to understand the economy and craft effective policies on energy insecurity and shut-offs as well.

 

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