News Article

Annual U.S. coal-fired electricity generation will increase for the first time since 2014

us electricity generation graph 2021

WASHINGTON -

We expect 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The U.S. electric power sector has been generating more electricity from coal-fired power plants this year as a result of significantly higher natural gas prices and relatively stable coal prices. This year, 2021, will yield the first year-over-year increase in coal generation in the United States since 2014.

Coal and natural gas have been the two largest sources of electricity generation in the United States. In many areas of the country, these two fuels compete to supply electricity based on their relative costs. U.S. natural gas prices have been more volatile than coal prices, so the cost of natural gas often determines the relative share of generation provided by natural gas and coal.

Because natural gas-fired power plants convert fuel to electricity more efficiently than coal-fired plants, natural gas-fired generation can have an economic advantage even if natural gas prices are slightly higher than coal prices. Between 2015 and 2020, the cost of natural gas delivered to electric generators remained relatively low and stable. This year, however, natural gas prices have been much higher than in recent years. The year-to-date delivered cost of natural gas to U.S. power plants has averaged $4.93 per million British thermal units (Btu), more than double last year’s price.

The overall decline in U.S. electricity demand in 2020 and record-low natural gas prices led coal plants to significantly reduce the percentage of time that they generated power. In 2020, the utilization rate (known as the capacity factor) of U.S. coal-fired generators averaged 40%. Before 2010, coal capacity factors routinely averaged 70% or more. This year’s higher natural gas prices have increased the average coal capacity factor to about 51%, which is almost the 2018 average.

Although rising natural gas prices have resulted in more U.S. coal-fired generation than last year, this increase in coal generation will most likely not continue. The electric power sector has retired about 30% of its generating capacity at coal plants since 2010, and no new coal-fired capacity has come online in the United States since 2013. In addition, coal stocks at U.S. power plants are relatively low, and production at operating coal mines has not been increasing as rapidly as the recent increase in coal demand. For 2022, we forecast that U.S. coal-fired generation will decline about 5% in response to continuing retirements of generating capacity at coal power plants and slightly lower natural gas prices.

Related News

solar panel worker

Avista Commissions Largest Solar Array in Washington

SPOKANE - Official commissioning of the Adams Nielson solar array located in Lind, WA occurred today. The 28 Megawatt DC array is comprised of 81,700 panels that span 200 acres and generates enough electricity to supply the equivalent of approximately 4,000 homes annually.

“Avista’s interest in the development of Solar Select, a voluntary commercial solar program, is consistent with the Company’s ongoing commitment to provide customers with renewable energy choices at reasonable cost,” said Dennis Vermillion, president, Avista Corporation. “In recent years, an increasing number of Avista customers have expressed their expectations and challenges in acquiring renewable energy. Avista is pleased…

READ MORE
houston substation

Electric Cooperatives, The Lone Shining Utility Star Of The Texas 2021 Winter Storm

READ MORE

canadian protest

How Canada can capitalize on U.S. auto sector's abrupt pivot to electric vehicles

READ MORE

ercot texas

More Polar Vortex 2021 Fallout (and Texas Two-Step): Monitor For ERCOT Identifies Improper Payments For Ancillary Services

READ MORE

wind power

Europe's stunted hydro & nuclear output may hobble recovery drive

READ MORE